Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. Rusty here with a look at what's coming our way.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: for a place like Tijuana Sloughs, this is a pretty bleak outlook. We’re looking at a solid, frustrating run of poor to merely marginal conditions for the next two weeks. There’s no standout, no single day where everything clicks for a proper session. We’ve got a stretch from now right through to August 20th that’s just not offering anything worth paddling out for.

The water temp at the start (Thursday morning) is a wild 73.4°, which is a massive 5.4° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, but unfortunately, the warm water doesn’t come with good waves.

Let’s break it down. Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th are a write-off – just weak, short-period slop from the SW with ‘poor surf conditions’ flagged. The swell energy is weak to moderate (161-469 in the gauge), and the wind is on it or cross-onshore.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th aren't much better. The swell bumps up slightly to 2.6 ft from the SSW, with some long-period energy (17s-15s), which can mean better shape at a river mouth like the Sloughs. But the wind is cross-onshore or light onshore, and the call is still only ‘marginal’ at best. The energy is moderate (329-407). Honestly, it’s not enough to get excited about.

The rest of the first week – Monday the 10th through Thursday the 13th – is more of the same. We see a swell direction from the SW/SSW, heights around 1.6 ft to 2.6 ft. The wind stays light or gentle, mostly cross-onshore or onshore. All the reports are either ‘poor’ or ‘marginal.’ There's no clean window.

Into the second week, things start looking a bit bigger in size but not cleaner. Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th of August brings slightly stronger swells hitting 3.9 ft from the SSW, with moderate to strong energy levels (565-845). But the wind gets worse. Saturday afternoon has a 12 mph NW cross-onshore breeze that will chop things right up. Sunday is messy too. For a spot that’s exposed and already tricky with the river mouth currents, this combination of a 3.9 ft swell and cross-shore wind looks more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers.

From Monday the 17th through the end of the outlook on the 21st of August, it fades back to small 2.0 ft-2.6 ft swells with light onshore winds. Nothing to see here. The only slight glimmer is Friday the 21st morning which is called ‘marginal,’ but it’s tiny (2.0 ft).

So, the bottom line: don’t bother waxing up for Tijuana Sloughs in this window. It’s a blank run. A consistent spot like this tends not to stay poor forever, but this stretch is a long one. Hopefully, the models look better next week. Keep checking back.

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