Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Tijuana Sloughs.

Alright, honest truth: this next 16-day stretch starts off a bit of a head-scratcher. For the first few days, you’re looking at some small, messy swell and cross-onshore winds that just won’t let things clean up. It’s not going to be pretty. We’ve got some moderate wave energy hanging around (around 700-1023 units), but the wind is killing the quality. The water is roasting at 72°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit if you’re desperate.

Let’s walk through it. Wednesday the 22nd is a write-off—clear skies, but 12 mph cross-onshore wind and only 3ft of SSW swell. It’s choppy and poor. Thursday the 23rd is a little better: 4ft of S swell in the morning, but the wind is onshore. The afternoon sees a bump in energy (1023 units), but the wind swings to cross-on again. You might get a few, but it’s not going to be memorable. Friday the 24th is small—3ft of long-period SW groundswell (24 seconds) in the morning. That long period will want a clean line, but at a river mouth like this, it might just slide past or break too straight. Waves drop to 2ft by the afternoon. Not much to work with.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th hold around 3ft to 4ft of SW swell, but cross-onshore or cross-shore winds keep things bumpy. The energy stays decent (around 750-984 units), but the surf is poor to marginal. Monday the 27th through Wednesday the 29th sees a little more size, with swell building to 4-5ft from the SW and SSW. The wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’s not completely blown out, but it’s still not the crisp, offshore perfection you’d want. The energy is moderate to strong (peaking at 1253 units on Tuesday morning). These are the best days of the run, but “best” here is still a 3/10 kind of vibe. Tuesday morning the 28th is the pick: 5ft of SW swell, light cross-onshore, and the highest energy of the period. It’s a borderline window.

From Thursday the 30th onward, the swell fades fast. By the time you hit Friday the 31st, it’s down to 3ft and the energy is weak. Then into the first week of August, there’s a real drought. From the 1st to the 6th, we’re looking at small, weak swell—2ft to 5ft—with onshore wind and very low energy (200-951 units). A lot of those days get a zero score. Not worth paddling out. That’s a solid 6-day stretch of nothing.

If you want the one standout, lock in Tuesday morning, July 28th. It’s the only time the swell hits a decent 5ft from the SW, energy is strong at 1253, and the wind is light. Even with the cross-onshore, it’s the best you’ll get. Just don’t expect perfection. And remember, the long-period stuff earlier in the week might look good on paper, but at a river mouth, it can be fickle. Tijuana Sloughs isn’t a point break—it’s a river, and those long-period groundswells (over 15 seconds) can break straight or just not bend in nicely here. So manage expectations.

Overall, it’s a lean window. If you’re dead set on a paddle, go Tuesday the 28th, early. Otherwise, maybe save the energy for something better down the road.

Rusty.

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