Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, looking at your next 16 days.

To be straight with you—things are looking tough. We’ve got Tijuana Sloughs as the only option on the table for the whole run, and honestly, it’s not serving up much. It’s a river break, exposed to the WSW, and it’s got a solid reputation for advanced surfers only. But for the first 10 days or so, you’re looking at a lot of nothing. The surf is pretty much flat or junk from August 1st right through to August 8th—wave heights barely pushing 3 ft at best, with light onshore or cross-onshore breezes messing with what little bump there is. You won’t want to paddle out.

There’s a slight flicker of hope come Sunday, August 9th. Swell ticks up just a bit to 3 ft from the SSW, and we start seeing some long-period energy in the 15 to 16-second range. But the winds are still cross-onshore from the SW, and the comments call it “marginal” or “poor.” The morning of August 9th might be your best early shout—light cross-onshore with small wind ripples, but honestly, it’s more of a “maybe you score a waist-high runner if the tide plays nice” kind of deal. The combined swell energy is moderate (325), but nothing to write home about.

Then, the middle of the second week—Wednesday, August 14th and Saturday, August 15th—start to look more interesting. On the 14th, the swell drops to 2 ft to 2 ft but with very long period (18 seconds) coming from the SW. The combined energy jumps to strong levels—up to 600 in the afternoon. That’s proper groundswell. The winds are onshore from the WNW, light breeze to gentle breeze, so it won’t be glassy, but the swell quality could be there. For a river break like Tijuana Sloughs, that long period groundswell from the SW is right in its wheelhouse—cleaner lines, better shape, but expect bigger gaps between sets. It’s only for advanced crew anyway. The swell size is still under chest-high, so it won’t be heavy—just fun.

The standout of the whole run lands on Saturday, August 15th morning. Swell bumps up to 4 ft from the SW with a 16-second period, and the combined energy hits 743—strong stuff. Wind is offshore from the WNW at 9 mph, which is a solid cross-offshore setup for the Sloughs. That’s the session to circle. It’s still onshore component, so not glassy, but much cleaner than anything else here. Still only marginal in the comments, but of all the days, that morning offers the most potential—especially for an early paddle when the tide and the wind line up.

The last few days—August 16th—drop back into poor conditions with cross-onshore NW winds and smaller SSW swell. Not worth chasing.

Now, the water temp is notable: it’s 73°F with a massive anomaly of 5°F warmer than normal. That’s very unusual—almost three degrees warmer than average for this time of year. So get out your summer boardshorts, no need for a wetsuit.

One big caveat here: because this is a river break, long-period groundswell can sometimes make it sectiony or straighten out, but it’s still the best shot we’ve got. Crowds? The spot is listed as “sometimes” busy, so you might share it, but with the poor run early on, it might be quieter than usual.

Bottom line: the first week is a write-off. The real window is August 14th through the morning of the 15th. That’s your best bet for any kind of quality session at Tijuana Sloughs.

Rusty.

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