Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on offer. I'm Rusty, and I'm looking straight at the Tijuana Sloughs. This is a river mouth setup, exposed to the swell, and it’s a consistent wave – it doesn’t just switch off. But hold your horses, because the next 16 days are a real mixed bag.

We start off on Tuesday the 21st of July, and it’s a bit of a letdown, to be honest. There’s a long-period groundswell sneaking in at 4ft from the SSW with a 15-second period, but the wind is blowing from the WNW at 12 mph, slapping it into a cross-onshore chop. The water is a touch warmer than usual at 71°F, about 3°F above average, but that doesn't help the mess. The combined energy is moderate at 676, but the conditions are just poor.

This cross-onshore wind sticks around through Wednesday and Thursday, keeping things choppy. We get a break on Thursday morning the 23rd with a light onshore breeze from the W at 6 mph, and the swell is 4ft from the S at 12 seconds. It’s still marginal, though, with the combined energy up to 694. It’s not clean.

Then, Friday the 24th of July morning shows some promise. The wind swings to the WSW at 6 mph, a light onshore, and the swell is a smaller 3ft, but the period absolutely jumps to 24 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at 1010. This is a very particular wave. At a river mouth, a period that long can make the waves stand up too straight, folding over fast. It’s a tricky one, more for the experts who know the line-up. By the afternoon, the period drops back to 13 seconds and the energy goes down.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th is a waiting game. The swell stays around 3ft, with periods between 18 and 21 seconds – still long period groundswell. The wind is light, mostly from the WSW or SSW, but it’s cross-onshore, so there’s a little bump on the surface. The combined energy builds to 1220 on Sunday morning, which is moderate, but it’s still a marginal call.

The real standout, the one that’s got my attention, is the last week of July into the start of August. Look at the 29th of July, Wednesday. The swell is 4ft from the SSW, period still a solid 16 seconds, and the wind is light from the SW at 6 mph. The combined energy is 915. It’s still a cross-onshore, but it’s a light breeze, just some small wind ripples. That’s as close to clean as we’re going to get in this run.

But the big one, the one you’ve got to keep an eye on, is the 31st of July, Friday. The swell jumps to 6ft from the S at 15 seconds in the morning, and then 7ft in the afternoon. That’s getting solid. The combined energy hits 1912, which is strong wave energy. The wind is a light onshore in the morning, turning to a cross-onshore at 9 mph in the afternoon. At 7ft, this is for experienced surfers only. The S direction is good, matching the optimum swell direction for the spot. It’s the best looking swell of the whole period, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t book the time off yet.

After that, things drop off fast. The 1st of August has a 6ft swell but it’s short period at 11 seconds, and the energy is dropping. By the 2nd of August, the swell is down to 2ft, and the conditions are poor. From the 3rd of August onwards, it’s a quiet spell with small, weak, poorly shaped waves. The combined energy drops to 170, which is weak. There’s nothing to get excited about in the second week.

So, the main takeaway? If you’re an expert, the 31st of July is the one to circle. It’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the run. For everyone else, the 29th of July offers the best chance of something clean and rideable, but it’s still a marginal, light wind day. The rest is a lot of waiting for something that doesn’t quite come together.

Rusty.

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