Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days. It's a tough run for Tijuana Sloughs. This is an advanced, consistent river mouth that needs the right angle, and for most of this period, the wind and swell are not making friends. We’re staring down a long stretch of small, onshore or cross-onshore junk.

For the first ten days, it’s pretty grim. From Tuesday the 11th right through to around Friday the 21st, we’ve got wave heights mostly hanging around 2 to 3 ft. The wind is blowing onshore or cross-onshore, constantly messing up any chance of a decent face. The water is warm, running about 74°, a full 6° warmer than normal – way above average for the time of year, which feels nice but won’t help the wave quality. The combined energy sits in the moderate range (503 to 790 range), but it’s all toast because of the conditions. The swell period is solid, often 15-18 seconds, punching in from the SW/SSW. That’s clean groundswell energy, but at a beach-and-river setup with this wind, it’ll just push through fat and won’t hold shape. Frankly, Tuesday the 11th is the closest to a recommendation with that clean sky and 2-ft from the SW, but at a score of 1 and “marginal surf,” it’s not worth the paddle. For the next week after that, it's mostly scores of 0 – "poor surf conditions" all day.

Now, hold on. Here’s the one standout that gets the blood pumping. On Wednesday the 26th of August, the whole game changes. That morning we see a solid 4 to 5 ft from the S, and by the afternoon it builds to 5 ft from the S. The wind drops to a mere 3 mph from the NW in the afternoon – that is a slight air, flirting with glassy conditions. The combined energy blasts up to 1554, which is a strong signal. The period is 16 seconds from the south – classic long-period groundswell for an exposed WSW-facing spot like Tijuana Sloughs (south of the border). This is the window. This is the one. 5 ft of south swell with almost no wind? The river mouth will have some nice, defined lines. It’s a big enough swell that beginners should sit it out, but for advanced surfers, this is the time. Expect crowds to be likely, it’s an exposed spot that turns on when the swell and wind align.

The days after that drop off again, but for now, mark that Wednesday the 26th. That’s the only true standout in this 16-day run. The rest is a write-off. Keep an eye on the charts, tide will matter, but the wind is the key.

Rusty out.

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