Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what’s happening at Tijuana Sloughs. We've got a 16-day window, but honestly, the first week is pretty flat and frustrated. There’s a big gap of poor conditions before things start to look interesting.

The water temperature is sitting at 72°F, and that's a solid 5° warmer than usual for this time of year. It feels like a bath out there, really unusual for July.

For the first several days, from Wednesday the 22nd right through to the end of July, it’s a real struggle. The combined swell energy is up there in the moderate range, hitting values like 627 and 707, but the wind is the killer. It’s cross-onshore or choppy nearly every session, keeping the waves messy. We see some long-period groundswell poking through, like a 24-second period on Friday the 24th, but at only 2ft to 3ft, it’s just not enough push. You'll be staring at lines that never really stand up. A couple of mornings, like Thursday the 23rd and Saturday the 25th, have a "light breeze" and unknown wind state which *could* mean offshore, but the data just calls it marginal. It’s not worth betting your morning on.

The real change comes into view at the very end of the first week. Friday the 31st of July, we see the swell start to build. That morning, the swell is 5ft from the S with a combined energy of 1354 – that's a significant jump in power. Saturday and Sunday (August 1st and 2nd) the swell pushes up to 6ft to 7ft from the S. The combined energy spikes to 1605! Now, this is still labelled "marginal" because the wind is coming from the NW and WNW at 15 km/h (9 mph), creating some cross-onshore texture. It’s not going to be perfectly glassy, but there’s finally some real size and power in the water.

The Standout: Honestly, the best window in this whole forecast is the last few days. Thursday the 6th of August is where it’s at. The morning sees a solid 6ft S swell at 14 seconds, with a combined swell energy of 1469. The wind is light and from the W, blowing straight onshore. Friday the 7th is looking even better, with the swell holding at 6ft from the S, a 14-second period, and the energy climbing to 1639. The wind is a light 10 km/h (6 mph) from the SW. While "onshore" isn't ideal, a light breeze like that often keeps it cleaner than it sounds, especially at a river mouth.

The downside? Tijuana Sloughs is an advanced, consistent spot. It’s also exposed to the swell with the optimum direction being WSW. With this swell coming from the S and SSW, it’s a bit off the ideal angle. The waves will be powerful, though, and around 6ft to 7ft it’s thick. Beginners shouldn't be out there. For the experienced crew, the first few days of August are a low-confidence long-range promise, but towards the end, that 6th and 7th of August look like the real deal.

Just keep in mind, long-period S swells like this can make beach breaks close out fast, but a river mouth like this can handle it. It’s a solid bet for those last days.

Rusty.

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