Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get real about the surf ahead. We're looking at a pretty flat and frustrating run for the most part, so don't get your hopes up too high. The water's sitting at 69°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The forecast opens with a bit of a tease on Monday the 6th at Tijuana Sloughs. We've got a clean 2ft swell rolling in from the SW, but that long 20-second period is a classic sign of a groundswell. The problem? The wind is cross-on from the NW at 9 mph, making it choppy. The combined energy is weak (789), and the call is poor. Not worth paddling out for this one.

Tuesday the 7th morning shows a bit more size at 3ft, still from the SW with a long 18-second period, and the wind turns onshore from the WNW. It's a "marginal" call at best, and the afternoon looks even worse with cross-on wind. We see this pattern hold through the week – Wednesday the 8th has a 4ft swell but onshore wind. Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th are more of the same with cross-onshore flow and readings of weak to moderate energy (820 down to 561). The swell holds around 3ft but the quality just isn't there.

The weekend of the 12th and 13th sees the swell drop to 3ft then 2ft with periods shortening. The energy falls off a cliff, down to 355, and conditions are either poor or marginal. We're into a real flat spell by Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th, with swells barely hitting 2ft. A bit of a pulse shows up on Wednesday the 15th, but it's tiny.

Now, there's a glimmer on Saturday the 18th of July. The morning session brings a moderate cross-shore wind from the SSW at 12 mph, and combined energy jumps to a strong 1060. The swell direction is S at 3ft, but the period is a short 19 seconds. The report says "marginal," so it's a bit of a mixed bag. The following Sunday morning, the 19th, offers up a 4ft S swell with moderate cross-shore wind and energy at 796. It's still only a "marginal" call.

The tail end of the outlook on the 20th and 21st just fades back into poor conditions with tiny swells and light cross-onshore breeze.

Look, Tijuana Sloughs is a river mouth that is "consistent," but it's not doing us any favors here. The only true standout – and I say this with a heavy dose of "maybe" – is the Saturday the 18th morning session. The jump in combined energy to 1060 is the biggest number we see, and with an S swell, it might offer a few more workable waves than the rest of this junk. Even then, the cross-shore wind is going to create a chop. It's an expert-only spot anyway, and with the "marginal" tag, don't expect perfection. The best of a bad bunch, but it's still a gamble considering the long-range uncertainty this far out.

Forget the rest of the days. This isn't a time to be precious about your board. If you're desperate, keep an eye on that Saturday, but don't plan your life around it.

- Rusty

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