Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the Tijuana Sloughs area over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so strap in.

Look, I gotta be straight with you – this isn't a killer outlook by any stretch. The Tijuana Sloughs is a river mouth setup that needs everything to line up, and for the next few days, it’s just not happening. The swell is small, the winds are messy, and the energy is weak. The wave energy is sitting at 999 (combined energy) on Friday the 24th, which is barely getting it started. The water temp is a toasty 73°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a seriously warm ocean, a real anomaly.

We’ve got a long gap of nothing happening at the start. The first few days, Friday the 24th through Sunday the 26th, are showing tiny swell around 3ft to 4ft with a SW direction, but the wind is coming from the SW too, making it cross-on and choppy. It’s just not worth paddling out for.

We start to see a little bump in energy around Monday the 27th. The swell pushes up to 5ft from the SW, with the combined energy hitting 1282. That’s a moderate bump, but the problem is that wind – still out of the SSW at 9 mph, creating a cross-on chop. The period is a short 17-18 seconds, so it’s a weak, wind-affected swell at a break that’s inconsistent. It’s not a standout.

The best chance, and I mean the *only* real window, looks to be around Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st. On Thursday morning, we get a 4ft swell from the S, combined energy of 1050, and light winds. But the real juice is Friday the 31st – the swell jumps to 7ft from the S with a period of 14 seconds, giving a combined energy of 1797. That’s a decent push with moderate energy. Winds are still onshore from the W, but at just 6-9 mph, it might be manageable. This is a spot that is usually inconsistent and this is a rare, short-lived pulse. It's an advanced-only wave at that size though – 7ft is pushing it for anyone but the experts, especially on a river mouth. The direction is S, but the spot’s optimum is WSW, so it’s not a perfect match. It’s the best on offer, but it’s a bit rough around the edges.

After that peak on the 31st, the swell drops fast. By August 2nd, we’re back down to 3ft, and by the 3rd, it’s a shocking 2ft with poor conditions and near-zero scores. The combined energy plummets to 202. From the 3rd of August all the way through to the 8th, it’s basically flat and blown out. The energy stays below 350, which is weak as dishwater. A blank run like this is more normal for this area when the conditions don’t align.

So, in a nutshell: the whole 16-day window is patchy. The only real flyer is Friday the 31st, with those 7ft waves, but it’s for experts only in onshore wind. The rest is small, messy, and not worth your time. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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