Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s heading our way.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – the next couple of weeks aren’t shaping up to be anything special. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal conditions, and the real standout window is short-lived. The first few days are pretty lackluster, but there’s a brief pulse of energy around the end of the month that’s worth keeping an eye on. After that, it fizzles out again into small, weak stuff.

The main event is Tijuana Sloughs, a river mouth that’s consistent and exposed, but it’s an advanced spot. The water’s sitting about average for the time of year, nothing wild.

We start off on Saturday the 25th of July. It’s not much to write home about. Early morning, we’ve got some clouds, a light breeze from the WSW at 6 mph, and a small 3 ft swell from the SW. The period is a massive 21 seconds, which is real long-period groundswell – that’s going to be a bit too straight for a river mouth, so it won’t be offering much shape. The combined energy is moderate (904). It’s a cross-on wind, so it’s messy. The afternoon’s the same story, just a touch smaller (3 ft, 20 seconds, 686 energy). Not worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 26th is more of the same. The morning swell bumps up to 4 ft from the SW (19 seconds), energy at 912, but it’s still cross-on with a light breeze. The wind switches to SW at 3 mph, but that cross-on direction just kills the quality. The afternoon is very similar. It’s all marginal.

Monday the 27th sees the swell push a little higher to 5 ft from the SW (18 seconds), with energy climbing to 1308 – that’s moderate energy. But again, it’s cross-on wind. The wind is light, but the direction is wrong. The afternoon is nearly identical.

Tuesday the 28th, the swell holds at 5 ft from the SW, but the wind picks up to a gentle breeze at 9 mph from the SW, making it cross-on and fairly choppy. Energy is still moderate (1277). Not clean.

Wednesday the 29th, it’s dropping back. Swell down to 4 ft, period dropping to 16 seconds, energy down to 909. Still cross-on and choppy.

Now, here’s where it gets a little interesting. Thursday the 30th of July. The swell jumps to 6 ft from the S, period at 15 seconds, and energy jumps to 1495. The wind stays light from the WSW at 6 mph, but in the morning it’s cross-on. The afternoon, however, turns *offshore* – that’s a big deal. The wind goes on from the WSW, and the swell pushes to 7 ft from the S at 14 seconds, with energy at 1655. This is the best window we’ve got. The S direction is a good match for the optimum swell direction (WSW is the target, but S is close enough to get some nice lines in). The wave size is getting up there, 7 ft, which is in the expert-only zone. The period is a solid 14 seconds, so it’ll have some punch. That Thursday afternoon is the standout – it’s the only time we see offshore wind with a decent swell.

Friday the 31st, the swell holds at 7 ft in the morning from the S (14 seconds, 1810 energy), but it’s back to cross-on wind. The afternoon goes offshore again with 7 ft from the S (13 seconds, 1482 energy). It’s still a decent option, but the period is dropping, so it’s a bit less powerful.

Then things fall off a cliff. Saturday the 1st of August, swell drops to 6 ft, period to 12 seconds, energy to 883. Offshore wind, but the swell is fading. By Sunday the 2nd, it’s down to 3 ft and poor. After that, we’re in a long, flat spell. From Sunday the 2nd, right through to the end of the forecast on Sunday the 9th of August, we’re looking at poor surf conditions. Swell heights are below 3 ft, periods are short, and energy is weak (under 500). The 6th of August sees a tiny bump with a 21-second period, but it’s only 2 ft, so it’s not going to do anything.

So, the best on offer is Thursday afternoon, the 30th of July. Tijuana Sloughs will have a 7 ft S swell, 14-second period, with offshore wind. That’s clean, powerful, and legit. It’s for experts only at that size. Friday the 31st is a secondary option, but the period is shorter. After that, you’re waiting for a miracle. The rest of the 16 days is a long gap of small, weak, poor surf.

Rusty out.

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