Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf rats, it’s Rusty here. Let's get straight into it. I’ve been staring at the charts for our stretch of coast, and I gotta be honest with you: it’s a pretty bleak picture for the next couple of weeks. The long-range stuff is showing some life, but for the here and now, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing.

We're looking at Tijuana Sloughs (Tijuana-Sloughs), and that water is sitting at a balmy 73°F, which is a full 6°F warmer than it should be for this time of year. That's a huge red flag – it’s unusual, and it speaks to how messed up the ocean temps are right now. For a river mouth setup like this, that warm water isn't doing us any favors.

The first week is a total write-off. From the Tuesday 4th through to the 10th, there's just nothing doing. We're talking tiny swells, mostly around 2-3 ft, coming from the SW with periods in that junky 13 to 15 second range. The energy readings are all over the place, sometimes weak, sometimes moderate, but the wave comment says it all: "poor surf conditions" every single session. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, keeping things chopped up and messy. It's not even worth paddling out. We're looking at a solid 6-7 day gap with absolutely no recommendations.

Then, starting Friday the 7th, there's a flicker of hope. That SW swell bumps up slightly to 2 ft, and the period jumps to a much more interesting 19 seconds. The energy also kicks up to a moderate 469. But it's still only rated as marginal, and the wind is still that annoying cross-onshore. It's a tease, not a green light.

The following week repeats the same pattern. Small swells, poor quality, onshore winds. The energy readings start climbing during the middle of the week, hitting the 600s and 700s on the 14th and 15th, which is strong, but the swell height stays stubbornly around the 3 ft mark. The period is still good, around 16-18 seconds, but it's all getting killed by the wind. That Thursday 14th and Friday 15th are the only days that even get a "marginal" nod, and it's purely because of that long-period energy. The wave heights are small, so it's not a beginner hazard, but it's also not clean surf.

Into the second week, things don't improve. The 16th and 17th see some 3 ft swells, but the wind state is just junk – cross-onshore and choppy. The energy is moderate, but it doesn't matter if the surface is a mess. This is a river break, and with this kind of onshore wind, it's going to be a washing machine. Honestly, with the onshore wind and small, weak swell, this setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.

The one thing that keeps me optimistic is that this break is listed as consistent. It tends not to stay this flat and crappy for long. Forecasts can and will change. So, while I'm telling you to leave the boards in the car for now, don't sell them. The foundation of that long-period groundswell is there in the background; we just need the wind to swing around and give us a chance. As we get to the middle of the second week, those longer-period swells are looking more promising, but it's a long-range call and far from certain.

Keep an eye on it. When it does turn on, it'll be worth it. This is Rusty, signing off.

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