Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got cooking for Tijuana Sloughs over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at this forecast and it’s a tough one to get excited about. For a spot that can handle some proper juice, the next 16 days are offering up a real mixed bag of small, messy, or just plain poor conditions. The biggest issue is the wind. For a spot that needs that clean, offshore flow from the east to really shine, we’re seeing a lot of cross-on and onshore breezes that are going to chop things up. The water temp is sitting at 68° which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit, at least.

Right out of the gate, Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are write-offs. The swell is showing around 2ft to 3ft from the SW with a very long 18 to 20 second period, but the wind is a steady 9 mph from the WNW, coming straight across the face. The combined energy is moderate (476-806), but with that cross-onshore wind, it’s just going to be a bumpy, messy affair.

Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th look like the best bets in the whole window, and that’s saying something. We’ve got a bit more size, around 3ft to 3ft from the SW, still with a good 16 to 18 second period. The wind swings around to a light 6-9 mph from the west, putting it *onshore*. The combined energy kicks up into the moderate to strong range (834-1038). The forecast notes the conditions are marginal, but this is the closest we get to a window with any real push. If you’re itching, Tuesday afternoon looks the most interesting, but keep your expectations in check – it’s not going to be glassy perfection.

For the rest of the first week and into the second, it’s a lot of the same story. Small swell, between 2ft and 3ft, with periods dropping into the shorter range (8-15 seconds) and that persistent cross-on or onshore wind from the SSW, WSW, and WNW. The combined energy stays moderate, dipping into the 300-500 range, but the conditions are consistently rated poor or marginal. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, and honestly, on this kind of forecast, you probably won’t have to fight for many waves, because there won’t be many worth fighting for.

Looking way out to the 16th through the 19th, there are a few brief glimpses of some swell, like a 3ft from SW with a 17-second period on the morning of the 18th, but the wind is still an issue. The overall energy is low to moderate.

So, the only real, and I mean *only*, standout in this entire 16-day period is Tuesday afternoon, July 7th. It’s not perfect, but it’s the one time you’ve got the biggest combined energy (1038) with the most consistent swell direction. It’s a “best of a bad bunch” situation. For a river mouth that’s exposed to the WSW, the SW swell will wrap in, but don’t expect the long-period lines to stand up perfectly in the channel with that onshore wind.

Bottom line: This is a pretty bleak run for Tijuana Sloughs. If you absolutely need to get wet, shoot for Tuesday the 7th, but bring your patience and don’t expect any gems. Everything else is a hard pass.

- Rusty

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