Tijuana Sloughs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s cookin’ at the Sloughs.

First look, and it’s a long, flat stretch ahead. We’re looking at a consistent, heavy river mouth, but the ocean just isn’t giving us much to work with for the next 16 days. The water temp is a little on the warm side for this season, about 71°F.

Monday, September 7th is the opening act, and it’s a weak one. We’ve got a chest-high swell, about 6 feet, coming from the SSW with a 12-second interval between waves. There’s plenty of energy in the water (1051), but the wind is blowing cross-onshore from the NW at a steady clip. That’s just going to chop it right up. The morning is your one chance, as the afternoon is a total washout. With conditions that messy, this is more of a kite-surfing zone than a place to paddle out.

After Monday, it’s a ghost town. Tuesday through to the end of the first week, we are looking at waves around knee-to-waist high, 3 feet or less, with the same rough, cross-onshore wind. The energy drops way down, and every session is described as poor or marginal.

There’s a bit of a bump on September 14th, with a 5-foot swell from the WNW, but it’s a short, weak windswell with only an 8-second period. The wind is still light and onshore, so it’s not going to hold up.

So, what’s the best of the absolute worst? That Monday morning, September 7th. It’s the biggest swell we see, the period is okay, and it’s got the most power directed at the break (1051). The catch is that you’ve got crowds to deal with (it’s often busy), and you’ll be surfing through a mess of cross-onshore chop. It’s the only swell with any size, but it’s far from perfect.

Then we hit a big dry spell. From that Monday afternoon all the way into the third week, we get nothing. Day after day of poor or marginal forecasts with low scores.

Finally, we get a glimpse of hope way out on Monday, September 21st. There’s another 4-foot swell from the SW, but this time with a very long 18-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, packing a ton of energy (780). With a light onshore breeze predicted, it could set up some really special, powerful lines on the river mouth. But we’re talking about a forecast that’s over two weeks out, so it’s a long-shot bet, not a sure thing.

For the next two weeks, I’d be parking the car and finding something else to do. It’s a rough run.

- Rusty

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