Dana Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The next 16 days are looking pretty flat for the most part around Dana Point. There’s a pulse of swell on the way Friday morning, but honestly, it’s a bit of a marginal call. After that, the long-range window is filled with small, weak waves and plenty of cross-onshore breezes that will keep things messy. There’s a real gap of poor conditions from Saturday, 1st August, right through to Thursday, 13th August, with a solid stretch of days where the surf is just not worth paddling out for. The best bet is to focus on the first day.

Friday 31st July – Morning
This is the standout. Clear skies, light WSW wind blowing 6 mph, and a south swell pushing in at 4 ft. The period is 14 seconds, so this is a proper groundswell – good energy, long gaps between sets. The combined swell energy is 701 (moderate). The wind is onshore, but it’s light enough that the surface should stay okay. Dana Point is a beach and reef setup, and it’s exposed to this swell direction. The water temp is about average for the time of year. Given the size, it’s not a beginner’s wave, but it’s not too big either. The afternoon holds the same energy but the wind picks up to 9 mph from the west, getting a bit cross-onshore and choppy. So get it in the morning.

Saturday 1st August to Thursday 13th August
From Saturday morning, the size drops sharply to 2 ft and then even smaller. The wind stays light, but it’s cross-onshore, so the waves will be weak, bumpy, and lifeless. The combined energy drops to just 257 (weak) on Saturday morning, and by Sunday it’s down to 199 (weak). This pattern of small, poor surf holds for the entire week. There’s a brief flicker of a longer period (19 seconds) on Friday 7th August, but the swell height is only 2 ft, so it’s all period and no power. The combined energy is 410 (moderate), but with poor conditions and cross-onshore wind, it’s not worth getting excited about. The rest of the days are consistently weak, with combined energy values between 120 and 480 (weak to moderate), but the wind is always onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave heights are tiny. A lot of these days are marked as “poor surf conditions”.

Friday 14th August to Saturday 15th August
The last couple of days of the forecast show a slight uptick, with swell heights around 2 ft to 3 ft, but the wind is again cross-onshore from the west. The combined energy hits 480 (moderate) on Saturday 15th August, but the poor surf label is still there. It’s another one of those “could be something, but probably not” calls.

So, bottom line: the only real shot for a surf is Friday 31st July morning. The rest of the 16 days is a long, flat grind. Keep your eyes on the forecasts, but it’s looking like a good time to wash the wax off.

Rusty.

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