Dana Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Gotta be straight with you—this 16-day stretch at Dana Point is a tough one. We’re looking at small, weak swells and a lot of onshore or cross-onshore wind, so don’t expect much. The combined energy of all swells directed here starts off weak (336) and stays mostly moderate (between three and six hundred) for the first week, which isn’t terrible, but the quality just isn’t there.

The water’s running at 69°F right now, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year (anomaly of 4°F). That’s already notable—feels like bathwater compared to usual.

We kick off Friday afternoon, July 3rd, with a 3 ft SSW swell, but it’s 12 mph onshore west wind. That’s a no-go. Saturday and Sunday are similar—tiny surf, poor conditions, and that southwest wind doesn’t give us a break.

Monday July 6th, we get a bit more energy coming through (527 to 661), still 2-3 ft from the SSW, but with long period (16 to 20 seconds)—that’s proper groundswell. Problem is, those long period swells often break too straight on a beach setup like Dana Point, and with the wind still onshore or cross-on, it’s messy. The rating here is marginal at best.

Tuesday July 7th, the swell pushes up a little to 4 ft from the SSW, period 18 seconds, and combined energy hits 838—that’s moderate. But we’ve still got light cross-onshore wind. It’s clean-ish in the morning with that light breeze, but it’s not exactly pumping. For a beginner-friendly break like this, 4 ft is fine, but the quality is just okay.

Wednesday July 8th and Thursday July 9th see similar 3-4 ft SSW swells, periods dropping to 16 seconds. Energy stays moderate (665-884). Wind stays light cross-onshore. Conditions are marginal but surfable for the persistent. The swell direction (SSW) is not the ideal WSW for Dana Point, which knocks it down a bit.

Then it fades. From Friday July 10th onward, it’s mostly 1 ft to 3 ft, poor conditions, and the energy drops into the weak to low-moderate range (176-436). The only glimmer is around July 18th, where we see 2 ft SW swell with a period of 17-18 seconds and energy climbing back to 566. That’s still 16 days out, so take it as a promising but less certain look.

Honestly, there’s no standout session here. If you’re desperate, Tuesday July 7th morning or Wednesday July 8th morning—when it’s 4 ft from the SSW, light wind, and the energy is highest—are your best bets. Just don’t expect perfection. For beginners, that 4 ft is okay, but it’s not clean enough for a great day out. Experts won’t find much to get excited about.

Crowds? Dana Point can get busy, especially when there’s any hint of a pulse. On these marginal days, it’s less crowded, so that’s a silver lining if you just want some water time.

Sign off: Rusty

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