Dana Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch ahead isn’t going to have you sprinting for your board. We’re looking at a lean run of small, marginal surf, with a few windows of cleaner conditions but nothing that’s going to get the heart racing too hard. The first real day worth mentioning is Saturday the 15th, but even then it’s a bit of a tease.

For the opening weekend, Dana Point is seeing some leftover SW swell, around 4ft on Saturday afternoon, but it’s coming in from the SSW at a solid 16 seconds. That long-period energy is nice, but it’s breaking pretty straight, and with a cross-onshore wind it’s going to be messy. The water’s sitting at 73°F, which is nearly 6°F warmer than it should be for this time of year—that’s a big deal, it’s unusually warm, so at least you won’t need a wetsuit. That first day’s energy is moderate, coming in at 777, but the chop is going to ruin the party.

Sunday the 16th shapes up slightly better first thing. Still those SSW lines, 3ft at 16 seconds, and the wind is light and offshore. That’s the cleanest window of the weekend. But it’s small, and the energy drops off to 532. It’s rideable on a longboard, but you’ll be scratching for the good ones. The afternoon goes downhill quick—wind swings cross-onshore, waves drop to 3ft, and it gets choppy. Not worth the paddle.

From Monday the 17th through the middle of the week, we’re in a real lull. Swell heights hover between 2ft and 3ft, with periods stuck around 14 to 16 seconds. It’s mostly cross-on light winds, so it’s not blown out, but there’s just no push. This is a stretch of a few days where you’re better off doing something else. The energy readings drop into the 300s and 400s–weak stuff.

There’s a brief flicker on Thursday the 20th, but it’s still only 3ft, and the period drops to 14 seconds. Friday the 21st is a write-off—waves drop to 2ft and under, the energy fades into the 100s and 200s. It’s flat. Looking at the 22nd and 23rd, it’s more of the same: tiny waves, but there’s a hint of something on the 23rd afternoon when a longer-period SW swell shows up at 19 seconds, but the wind is howling cross-shore at 12 mph, so the surface is going to be a mess.

The good news is a slow-building trend kicks off late in the month. Around the 28th of August, we start seeing the swell pick up again, with 3ft SSW swell and a 16-second period, and the wind goes light offshore. Energy jumps back into the 680–720 range. That’s promising. Then Saturday the 29th morning looks like the standout of this whole outlook. Swell pushes to 4ft from the SSW at 14 seconds, and the wind is nearly dead—3 mph offshore. The energy is solid, hitting 939. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and that’s a rarity in this stretch. The afternoon fades a bit but is still okay.

Sunday the 30th keeps some life, with 3ft SSW swell and 16-second periods, but the wind turns cross-shore, so it’s a bit less clean than Saturday morning. Still, it’s rideable.

So, bottom line: don’t get your hopes up for the next week and a half. It’s small, mostly marginal, and the cleanest windows are early mornings. The real call is Saturday the 29th—that’s the pick of the bunch, with cleaner conditions and a bit more size. It’s not a day for the foam boards, though—this is a longboard or funboard wave for most. If you’re a beginner, even that 4ft is fine, but anything bigger down the track and you’ll want to sit it out.

The break itself, Dana Point, is a beach and reef mix, fairly consistent, and the crowds can get busy on a good day, so expect some company. It’s also exposed, so it catches what little there is. Just remember, this place isn’t a lake; it’s the ocean, and the swell direction coming from the WSW is what this spot wants. It’s just a matter of waiting for a bit more size and better wind.

That’s it from me. Keep an eye on the forecasts—things can change. But for now, go find something else to do this week, and be ready to surf Saturday the 29th.

Rusty.

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