Dana Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Dana Point are a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, the early days look pretty tough. The water’s sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, coming in at about 21°, so that’s a small silver lining if you’re paddling out anyway.

We’ve got a long wait for anything really worthwhile. The first few days are pretty much a write-off. Friday the 11th through to Sunday the 13th see small, weak swell – mostly around 0.6m to 1.1m – but the real killer is the wind. It’s blowing cross or cross-onshore, and the wave energy is low to moderate (between 224 and 419), so the surf is either poor or just marginal. You’ll find a bit of a cross-chop on those small waves, and nothing’s standing out. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are similar, with the swell dropping off even more, barely hitting 0.5m on Tuesday morning.

Wednesday the 16th starts to show a tiny flicker of hope with a 0.8m swell from the SSW, but it’s still just marginal. The wind stays light, but mostly onshore or cross-on, keeping things messy. This pattern pretty much holds through to Thursday the 19th of September – the swell stays small, the wind variable, and the energy moderate to strong (in the 400 to 650 range), but the conditions never quite click. It’s all “marginal” at best, with no real quality wave to get excited about.

Now, here’s where I get a bit more interested. Saturday the 20th of September into Monday the 22nd brings a more consistent push of SW swell, holding around 0.9m with a nice long period of 17 to 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and while the wave energy is building into the strong range (614 to 877), the wind is the problem. It’s still mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the break at Dana Point is a beach and reef setup, so long-period SW swell hitting a beach can be a bit straight and closed out. It’s a tease, really. For a more experienced surfer, there might be a window Sunday morning the 20th if that very light SSW air holds, but it’s a gamble.

Honestly, the standout option – if you can call it that – might be the Monday morning of the 22nd of September. We’ve got a 0.9m SW swell, period of 17 seconds, and a light S breeze. The crowd factor? Dana Point is listed as “sometimes” busy, so you might get a bit of company but nothing crazy. The swell direction (SW) matches the optimum for the spot (WSW is close enough), and the energy is solid at 681. It’s the best combo of size, period, and acceptable wind in the whole forecast. But it’s still a marginal call, not a classic day.

After that, from Wednesday the 24th onward, it fades again. The swell drops back to 0.8m or less, with short periods (12-14 secs), and the wind turns more onshore. The energy drops into the 250-350 range, and the surf quality is poor. The last week of the month is a real snooze.

So, for the whole 16-day window, there’s no single day I’d call a total standout. The best bet is that Monday the 22nd, but keep your expectations in check – it’s more of a “maybe worth a look” than a must-paddle situation. For beginners, the swell never gets over 1.5m, but the onshore winds and chop won’t do any favours. If you’re a kiter, the persistent cross-onshore wind might be more interesting than the surf.

Rusty.

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