Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the pipe for this little stretch of coast. We’ve got a single point break to focus on, and it’s gonna be a tale of two weeks: a proper heavy start, then a bit of a lull, before a monster second weekend rolls in. Gotta be smart about when you paddle out.

The pattern kicks off with a serious pulse of energy. You’re looking at a very strong combined energy of 18226, which is a big number, and it’s hammering in from the SW. That’s a nice, clean direction for this spot. The swell is a solid 16ft early on Wednesday the 9th, but the wind is a cross-off from the S at 19 mph. It’s clean, but those are heavy conditions. This is expert-only territory from the get-go, with the swell over 8ft and the period a long 19 seconds. That long period means the waves have real grunt and will be holding up well, but the sets will be spaced out. For the first few days, you have to be on your game.

Now, the real standout, the one you circle on the calendar, is Thursday the 10th. The morning session is the pick of the entire first week. The wind drops to a light breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, still cross-off, and the wave size is a still-serious 15ft. The energy is still very strong at 16711, and the period is a lovely 16 seconds. The conditions are marked as exceptional for experts. If you’ve got the skills and the board for it, you will not find a better, cleaner window in this run. The afternoon holds up decent too, but the morning is pure gold.

After that peak, the swell starts to ease but the quality drops away. Friday and Saturday the 11th and 12th see the wind turn onshore or cross-shore, and the surf gets a bit messy. Saturday afternoon does offer a moment of calm, with the wind going glassy and the swell dropping to 8ft, but with a combined energy of 3221, it’s a far cry from the earlier power. It’s a better option for experienced surfers, not beginners, but it’s clean.

Then we hit a dry patch. From Sunday the 13th all the way through Monday the 21st, the recommendations are slim to none. The swell drops below 7ft for a few days, and the wind is often too strong or on the wrong angle. The end of the first week and the start of the second are a write-off for serious surfing. The energy drops way down, into the hundreds and low thousands. It’s a frustrating gap.

But hold on, because the second week brings a serious return to form. The period from Tuesday the 15th through to the end of the run on the 24th sees the swell pumping again. However, the real monster is Monday the 21st of September. The morning session is a dead-set standout. The swell is a massive 16ft again, coming from the SW with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is a massive 14150. But the kicker is the wind: a light breeze from the WNW at 6 mph, cross-off, making for clean, powerful lines. This is a long-range call, so it’s a promise, not a guarantee, but it looks absolutely firing. The afternoon is a touch less clean with a cross-shore wind, but it’s still a solid 15ft with 18-second periods.

The days before and after that Monday are also very good, with waves in the 12ft to 15ft range and mostly clean conditions. The wind does get a bit strong on the 22nd, with a strong offshore that will make paddling a real battle. But for the most part, the second week is a classic, heavy swell window.

This is Blacknose Point, a break that’s fairly consistent and often crowded. With the size of the swell we’re talking about, the crowds will likely be thinned out to only the most committed and skilled locals. The optimum swell direction is SSW, and the forecast is delivering that perfectly. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no shock to the system.

To sum it up: the absolute best sessions are Thursday the 10th morning for the first week, and Monday the 21st morning for the second week. If you’re not an expert, stay out of the water for the first few days and the 21st – the 8ft to 13ft days in the second week are your window, but even then, be careful. This is a real point break, with long period groundswell, so it’ll hold a nice line, but the power is no joke.

Rusty.

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