Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming down the pipe for this spot. We’ve got a stretch of surf ahead, but it’s a mixed bag, so listen up.

We’re starting off with a bit of a wait, if you can call it that. The first proper surf hits us on Wednesday, the 8th of July, and right out of the gate, it’s a big one. Blacknose Point is pumping a solid 10 ft of SW swell. The kicker? Wednesday afternoon turns glassy with a light easterly breeze. That’s the kind of session you dream about. The water is sitting at 60°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a little bit of extra comfort. The combined energy is strong at 5043, so there’s plenty of punch. This is a standout moment, but be warned: this wave is for advanced surfers only. It’s a point break, and it’s fairly consistent, but the crowds are a regular thing here, so expect company.

Thursday the 9th drops off a notch. We’ve got 6 ft to 7 ft of SW swell, but the wind swings cross-on. It’s still rideable, but the magic of Wednesday is gone. Friday the 10th gets a little bigger, 7 ft, but the cross-shore wind picks up and it gets choppy. Saturday the 11th is a write-off for paddling – 25 mph cross-shore winds and rain. The surf is poor.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting and a bit raw. From Sunday the 12th through to Wednesday the 15th, the swell is massive – we’re talking 16 ft to 20 ft of SW and WSW groundswell. The period is long, 13 to 16 seconds, meaning these are serious, powerful lines. The combined energy hits 15838 on Monday afternoon. That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is howling – 28 mph to 31 mph from the west, often offshore. That makes for clean, scary fast faces. This is expert-only territory. If you aren’t fit and fearless, stay on the beach. The sheer size makes it a spectacle, but not a beginner’s game.

Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th bring a welcome drop in size. We’re looking at 7 ft to 6 ft of clean SW swell. The wind is light to gentle and cross-off. The combined energy is still decent at 3810 on Friday. It’s a solid, quality wave for experienced surfers again. This is a nice little pocket of good, manageable surf after the big stuff.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th gets messy again. Cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions take the shine off. Sunday the 19th afternoon drops to 5 ft and the wind is horrible – poor surf. Monday the 20th is flat and messy, with near gale-force winds. Nothing to see there.

Tuesday the 21st sees the wind swing offshore again, bringing clean 8 ft to 10 ft WSW swell, but the freshness of the wind makes it a tough paddle. Then, a big note for the future: on Wednesday the 22nd of July, we’ve got a 16 ft WSW swell predicted, with gentle offshore winds. The combined energy is absolutely massive at 24483. The guidance says it might be too big for this break, but if you’re an expert, this could be the session of the month. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but the potential is huge. The 23rd of Thursday drops to 13 ft but with cross-shore winds, so it’s less perfect.

So, to sum it up: the two true standouts are Wednesday afternoon the 8th – glassy 10 ft SW for the experienced crew, and the big, raw offshore swells from the 12th to the 15th for the hardcore experts. The long-range standout on the 22nd is a serious promise, but we'll see how it shapes up.

Stay salty, and respect the ocean.

Rusty.

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