Blacknose Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.38° S 141.64° E

Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 16 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Blacknose Point sea temperature is
14.6° C
1.1° 

Blacknose Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Blacknose Point surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 22 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 23 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 8,463 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 20 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 10s period with W swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacknose Point this week:

The surf forecast for Blacknose Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.8m and 12s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Blacknose Point in the next 16 days are 4.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Thu 20th Aug)7.5ft (2.3m) 10s
Best Surf 4PM (Sat 22nd Aug)13ft (4.0m) 15s
Most Powerful10AM (Sun 23rd Aug)13ft (4.0m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacknose Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day outlook for Blacknose Point, and it’s a slow starter for sure. The first week is mostly a bust, but if you hang in there, the second weekend pumps with some serious size and cleanliness. There’s a noticeable quiet patch through the middle of the week, but don’t give up.

Right from Sunday the 16th, it’s a messy scene. There’s a 8ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-on from the SE at 9 mph, making it choppy and ugly. The water’s 58°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – a small bonus. The combined energy is a huge 2557, but the conditions don’t do it justice.

From Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th, it’s a real lull. Swell drops to 4ft and even 3ft, with wind swinging from the NE, NNE, and a strong N at 22 mph. It’s cross-on, choppy, and lumpy – not worth your time. Energy drops as low as 553, so it’s weak. Wednesday afternoon sees a clean-up with a cross-off wind from the NW, but the swell is still tiny at 4ft. Hardly worth it.

Thursday the 20th picks up with a 8ft swell from the W, and the wind turns cross-off from the W in the afternoon, cleaning it up. The morning is a little cross-shore, but the energy is up to 3970. It’s still marginal, but there’s hope.

Friday the 21st is where the fire starts. Swell jumps to 10ft from the SW, with clean conditions from a cross-off WNW breeze at 12-15 mph. The energy is a booming 5777. This is for the advanced crew only.

The absolute standout is Saturday the 22nd. This is the day. A 12ft to 13ft SW groundswell (15-second period) with light offshore winds from the SW at 6-9 mph. Combined energy hits a massive 6945 – that’s exceptional power. The waves will be clean, lined up, and heavy. The finder says “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers.” Over 8ft, this isn’t for beginners. The long period means long, perfect walls at this point break, and expect a crowd – it’s often busy here.

Sunday the 23rd keeps the size at 12ft to 13ft, but the wind goes NW and cross-off, still clean. Energy is 8797 – massive – but the wind is a bit stronger, so the quality dips slightly.

Monday the 24th through Wednesday the 26th sees the swell back off to between 8ft and 5ft. The wind stays offshore from the SW, but gets strong – up to 25 mph on Wednesday morning – making it clean but a real struggle to get out. Energy drops to 865-915, so it’s not the same power. Thursday the 27th bounces back with a 5ft to 5ft SW swell (16-second period) and light S winds, clean and excellent for experienced surfers.

The final weekend, August 28th and 29th, brings another pulse: 10ft to 12ft from the W and WSW with light winds. But the direction is off the optimum for Blacknose (which loves SSW), and the period is shorter at 10-13 seconds. Energy is 3700-4265, so there’s size, but it won’t be as well-shaped. The last few days into the 31st drop to 5ft to 6ft with clean cross-off winds – fun but not special.

Bottom line: avoid the first week. Saturday the 22nd is the one to aim for – big, clean, and powerful, experts only. The 27th is a nice secondary. A crowd is likely, so get in early.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Sun afternoon). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Mainly fresh winds.

Sun
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
3
4
3
3
5
6
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
14
2.4
SW
14
1.6
SW
16
2.4
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
2.5
W
10
2.5
W
13
2.5
WSW
13
2.2
WSW
12
3
SW
14
3
WSW
14
3
SW
16
3.5
SW
15
4
SW
15
3.5
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2557
2125
1256
2865
1760
1033
793
767
505
479
1302
2175
1992
1355
3752
3212
4895
5639
6945
5438
Wind (km/h)
15
SE
15
ENE
15
ENE
20
E
20
NE
25
NE
25
NNE
30
NNE
35
N
30
NW
25
NW
25
NNW
25
W
20
W
20
WNW
25
WNW
30
W
15
SW
10
SW
15
NNW
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross
High Tide
2:21AM0.91m
2:14PM0.94m
2:57AM0.94m
2:23PM0.92m
3:34AM0.93m
2:30PM0.91m
4:14AM0.90m
2:30PM0.89m
5:02AM0.85m
2:15PM0.87m
6:41AM0.80m
1:31PM0.87m
Low Tide
8:17PM0.32m
8:17AM0.37m
8:35PM0.26m
8:44AM0.46m
8:56PM0.22m
9:08AM0.55m
9:19PM0.21m
9:27AM0.65m
9:41PM0.22m
9:32AM0.73m
10:01PM0.25m
8:11AM0.79m
10:16PM0.30m
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
heavy rain
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
part cloud
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:16
7:16
7:15
7:13
7:11
7:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:57
5:58
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:01
 mm
1
2
12
2
1
Temp °C
12
12
16
17
15
15
14
14
14
15
12
14
12
12
13
13
13
12
12
10
Feels °C
9
9
13
13
11
10
9
8
10
9
6
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Blacknose Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Blacknose Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacknose Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacknose Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacknose Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacknose Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Far West of Victoria? If you are looking for accommodation near Blacknose Point, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Far West of Victoria, consider staying in Portland which is 5 km (3 miles) away. Other places in and around Far West of Victoria where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Warrnambool which is 73 km (45 miles) away, Allendale East and Mount Gambier.

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