Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for your region. Let’s get straight into it.

We’ve got a big window of surf coming up, but it’s a real mixed bag. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, but the middle of the week after that is where the magic’s at. The main break in the spotlight is Blacknose Point, a solid point break that’s fairly consistent and handles a decent amount of swell.

The water temperature is sitting around 58°F, which is about 2°F warmer than you’d expect for this time of year. It’s a nice little bonus, but don’t get too comfortable—it’s not a major shift.

Alright, let’s run through it. The first real action kicks off on Saturday the 5th, but it’s a rough start. We’ve got a 10-foot SW swell (combined energy of 5169), but that wind is howling from the WNW at 28 mph, making it a messy cross-off. It’s big and powerful, but the conditions are poor. The afternoon only gets worse with a 15-foot swell, so honestly, I’d give this one a miss unless you’re desperate for a beating.

Sunday the 6th is a different story. The wind swings around to the west, dropping to 9 mph, and turns offshore. That’s the good stuff. You’ve got a 12-foot WSW swell (4446 energy) in the morning, and it’s clean. The afternoon drops to 10 feet, but still offshore at 12 mph. This is the first real standout. The waves are going to be long, lined up, and powerful. This is for experienced surfers only—that 12-foot is pushing it for beginners.

After that, Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th are a bit of a letdown. The swell drops off, and the wind is more cross-off. Tuesday morning and afternoon are clean, but the period is short (8 seconds) on Monday, so the waves will be a bit weak and crumbly. Not worth the paddle out, really.

But then we hit Wednesday the 9th. This is the big one. The morning swell is 15 feet (15,538 energy), and by the afternoon, it’s a monster 20-foot SSW swell (20,420 energy). That is enormous. The period is 18 seconds, so it’s a very long-period groundswell. This is only for absolute experts. The wind is a fresh cross-off, so it’s clean, but at 20 feet, it’s a beast. The problem is, the forecast says it’s too big for this break. The waves will be ugly and hard to ride. Still, if you’re a pro, you might find a ride.

Thursday the 10th is still huge, with an 18-foot swell in the morning and 16 feet in the afternoon. The afternoon is the real gem here—wind goes offshore at 9 mph, and it’s described as exceptional conditions for experts. The combined energy is 11,329, so it’s a powerful wave. This is another standout. The waves are going to be fat, fast, and hollow. Crowds are often here, but on a Thursday, you might get a bit more space.

From Friday the 11th onwards, the swell drops off significantly. The wind goes light or cross-shore, and the quality fades. Saturday the 12th afternoon has a moment of calm—glassy conditions with an 8-foot SW swell (2798 energy). That’s a nice, clean, friendly wave for a more relaxed session. But it’s short-lived.

The rest of the second week is a washout. The swell stays between 5 feet and 10 feet, but the wind is either cross-off, cross, or cross-on. The energy is moderate to weak. There’s a brief spike on Tuesday the 15th with an 18-foot swell, but the wind is cross-off and it’s not clean enough to get excited about. Wednesday the 16th afternoon is worth a mention—7-foot SW swell, 17-second period, gentle offshore wind. That’s a nice, clean, fun wave for experienced surfers.

Overall, the standout is Sunday the 6th and Thursday the 10th. The long-range stuff on the 10th is promising but less certain. If you’re a beginner, stay away from anything over 5 feet. If you’re an expert, you’ve got two solid days of big, powerful, clean waves. The rest is a gamble.

Rusty out.

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