Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s heading our way over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but when it fires, it really fires.

The window kicks off with a bang. We’ve got a solid run of clean, powerful groundswell lining up, but the real standout is going to be Wednesday morning, the 29th of July. Blacknose Point is set to get absolutely thumped by a massive 21ft SSW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy reading is a staggering 35722, so we’re in serious territory here. Now, with that kind of size, this is strictly for the experts only. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, keeping it clean, but paddling into one of these monsters will be a battle. It’s a point break, so it should handle the long period swell well, but don’t even think about it if you’re not on your A-game. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about average for this time of year, so a 4/3 will do.

The afternoon of the 29th eases a touch to 15ft from the SW with a 14-second period, still clean but with a bit more manageable energy (8754). It’s a solid session, but the morning is the peak.

The 30th of July, Thursday, brings a proper drop in size. You’ve got 8ft to 8ft SSW swell, and the wind is light offshore from the WSW. This is where the experienced crew can really have some fun. The wave comment says excellent for experienced surfers, and with that gentle offshore breeze, expect some clean, well-shaped walls. The combined energy is still decent at 2805 and 2013, but the crowd factor is “often” at this point, so don’t expect to have it to yourself.

By Friday the 31st, we’re down to 7ft, with a clean offshore flow from the NW. The period drops to 12 seconds, so it’s a more mellow, friendly wave. It’s a good option for those who find Wednesday a bit too hectic.

The first few days of August are a bit of a washout. Saturday the 1st has a cross-shore wind that’s putting a chop on the 8ft to 10ft swell, so the quality suffers. Sunday the 2nd through Monday the 3rd sees the wind turning cross-onshore, creating a lumpy, choppy mess. The swell is still there, but the conditions are marginal. The 4th of August drops to onshore winds and smaller swell, so it’s not worth paddling out.

There’s a long gap of inconsistent, poor-quality surf from the 5th through the 11th of August. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, with a few offshores that are too weak to overcome the general mess. The swell period is long, but the wind is just ruining it.

But hold on to your boards, because the real dark horse is the 12th of August. That Wednesday morning has a 12ft W swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 13784. The wind is a clean offshore breeze from the SSE. It’s labelled as a “marginal surf forecast” but the score is telling me this is a hidden gem. For a point break, a long period W swell is a dream. The afternoon of the 12th, however, is another monster: 21ft from the WSW with an 18-second period and a whopping 44437 combined energy. That’s again strictly for the experts. It’s a long way out, but this one has the potential to be the best day of the whole forecast if it holds.

So, to sum it up: if you’re an expert, clear your calendar for Wednesday the 29th of July morning. For the rest of us, keep an eye on the 12th of August as a promising, but less certain, long-range target. The rest of the time is mostly a bit of a write-off.

Rusty.

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