Blacknose Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.38° S 141.64° E

Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 08 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Blacknose Point sea temperature is
14.5°C
1.0° 

Blacknose Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Blacknose Point surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 19s period, SW swell with 18,226 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacknose Point this week:

The surf forecast for Blacknose Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.5m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 4.0m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Blacknose Point in the next 16 days are 5.0m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 4PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Wed 9th Sep)18ft (5.5m) 17s
Best Surf10PM (Wed 9th Sep)18ft (5.5m) 17s
Most Powerful10AM (Wed 9th Sep)16ft (5.0m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacknose Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the pipe for this little stretch of coast. We’ve got a single point break to focus on, and it’s gonna be a tale of two weeks: a proper heavy start, then a bit of a lull, before a monster second weekend rolls in. Gotta be smart about when you paddle out.

The pattern kicks off with a serious pulse of energy. You’re looking at a very strong combined energy of 18226, which is a big number, and it’s hammering in from the SW. That’s a nice, clean direction for this spot. The swell is a solid 16ft early on Wednesday the 9th, but the wind is a cross-off from the S at 19 mph. It’s clean, but those are heavy conditions. This is expert-only territory from the get-go, with the swell over 8ft and the period a long 19 seconds. That long period means the waves have real grunt and will be holding up well, but the sets will be spaced out. For the first few days, you have to be on your game.

Now, the real standout, the one you circle on the calendar, is Thursday the 10th. The morning session is the pick of the entire first week. The wind drops to a light breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, still cross-off, and the wave size is a still-serious 15ft. The energy is still very strong at 16711, and the period is a lovely 16 seconds. The conditions are marked as exceptional for experts. If you’ve got the skills and the board for it, you will not find a better, cleaner window in this run. The afternoon holds up decent too, but the morning is pure gold.

After that peak, the swell starts to ease but the quality drops away. Friday and Saturday the 11th and 12th see the wind turn onshore or cross-shore, and the surf gets a bit messy. Saturday afternoon does offer a moment of calm, with the wind going glassy and the swell dropping to 8ft, but with a combined energy of 3221, it’s a far cry from the earlier power. It’s a better option for experienced surfers, not beginners, but it’s clean.

Then we hit a dry patch. From Sunday the 13th all the way through Monday the 21st, the recommendations are slim to none. The swell drops below 7ft for a few days, and the wind is often too strong or on the wrong angle. The end of the first week and the start of the second are a write-off for serious surfing. The energy drops way down, into the hundreds and low thousands. It’s a frustrating gap.

But hold on, because the second week brings a serious return to form. The period from Tuesday the 15th through to the end of the run on the 24th sees the swell pumping again. However, the real monster is Monday the 21st of September. The morning session is a dead-set standout. The swell is a massive 16ft again, coming from the SW with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is a massive 14150. But the kicker is the wind: a light breeze from the WNW at 6 mph, cross-off, making for clean, powerful lines. This is a long-range call, so it’s a promise, not a guarantee, but it looks absolutely firing. The afternoon is a touch less clean with a cross-shore wind, but it’s still a solid 15ft with 18-second periods.

The days before and after that Monday are also very good, with waves in the 12ft to 15ft range and mostly clean conditions. The wind does get a bit strong on the 22nd, with a strong offshore that will make paddling a real battle. But for the most part, the second week is a classic, heavy swell window.

This is Blacknose Point, a break that’s fairly consistent and often crowded. With the size of the swell we’re talking about, the crowds will likely be thinned out to only the most committed and skilled locals. The optimum swell direction is SSW, and the forecast is delivering that perfectly. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no shock to the system.

To sum it up: the absolute best sessions are Thursday the 10th morning for the first week, and Monday the 21st morning for the second week. If you’re not an expert, stay out of the water for the first few days and the 21st – the 8ft to 13ft days in the second week are your window, but even then, be careful. This is a real point break, with long period groundswell, so it’ll hold a nice line, but the power is no joke.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Tue night, calm by Thu night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Mon afternoon). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
7
7
8
9
6
4
4
3
3
3
4
1
1
3
2
0
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
SW
16
5
SW
19
5.5
SSW
17
5.5
SSW
17
4.5
SSW
16
4
SSW
16
3.5
SSW
15
3.5
SSW
14
3.5
SSW
16
3.5
SSW
16
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.4
SW
15
2
SW
15
1.7
SW
15
1.7
SW
14
1.3
SW
13
1.1
SW
13
2.5
SW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
7293
18226
16485
16312
10526
7826
5024
4423
6211
5884
3971
3221
2559
1785
1314
1121
562
405
1238
Wind (km/h)
35
SSW
30
S
25
S
15
SSW
10
SSW
15
SSW
5
SSE
5
E
10
SE
10
ENE
10
N
0
S
20
N
25
NNW
20
WNW
20
WNW
25
W
25
WSW
15
SSW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
High Tide
1:03AM0.43m
12:46PM0.97m
00:10AM0.55m
12:52PM0.94m
00:21AM0.68m
12:58PM0.91m
00:44AM0.81m
1:05PM0.88m
1:11AM0.91m
1:12PM0.87m
1:40AM0.99m
1:22PM0.86m
2:10AM1.03m
Low Tide
4:40AM0.39m
8:09PM0.45m
5:41AM0.33m
7:26PM0.46m
6:20AM0.30m
7:08PM0.41m
6:52AM0.30m
7:07PM0.34m
7:20AM0.32m
7:17PM0.26m
7:47AM0.37m
7:33PM0.19m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:43
6:43
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:37
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:16
6:17
6:19
6:20
6:21
6:22
 mm
Temp °C
11
11
11
10
11
11
10
13
13
12
18
19
17
23
22
16
15
13
11
Feels °C
5
3
5
6
7
8
7
10
10
8
17
18
14
18
18
13
9
8
6
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Blacknose Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Blacknose Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacknose Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacknose Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacknose Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacknose Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Far West of Victoria? If you are looking for accommodation near Blacknose Point, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Far West of Victoria, consider staying in Portland which is 5 km (3 miles) away. Other places in and around Far West of Victoria where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Warrnambool which is 73 km (45 miles) away, Allendale East and Mount Gambier.

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