Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a wild 16-day window ahead at Blacknose Point, a point break that’s fairly exposed to the swell. The water’s sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you’ll notice it’s not as chilly as it could be.

The overall pattern kicks off with a huge pulse of energy on Friday the 3rd of July. That afternoon, we’re looking at a massive 20ft swell from the WSW, with a long 15-second period. The combined energy here is massive (28832) – that’s some serious power. But here’s the thing: the wind is howling offshore at 19 mph, which sounds clean, but this swell is just too big for this break. It’s advanced territory only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. I’d sit this one out unless you’re a local charger looking for a mission.

Moving into the 4th, the swell drops to a much more manageable 12ft from the SW, period 13 seconds. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze at 12 mph, which keeps things tidy, but the tide conditions are questionable. Both the morning and afternoon sessions are rated marginal. Not the best, but if you’re desperate, you might find a few.

Sunday the 5th is a write-off for paddling. The swell is 15ft from the SSW, period 17 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell. But the wind is a messy cross-onshore at 12 mph, churning up the surface. The afternoon gets worse with 13ft and a 0 score. Honestly, this setup is better suited to kite surfers than paddle surfers – strong onshore wind and big swells at a point break is just messy.

Monday the 6th sees the swell drop to 8ft, but the wind is still cross-onshore, and it’s choppy. Not worth paddling out.

Now, Tuesday the 7th is the first real standout. The morning is glassy – dead calm with light winds from the ENE at 3 mph. The swell is 6ft from the SW, period 16 seconds (another long-period groundswell). This is perfect for experienced surfers. The combined energy is moderate (1792), and with glassy conditions, Blacknose Point will be offering up some clean, lined-up waves. The long period means it might break a bit straight at the point, but it’s still a dream session if you can get it. Crowds are often at this break, so don’t expect solitude.

The following week has a few moments. Wednesday the 8th has 10ft from the SW, period 18 seconds (very long period), but the wind is light cross-onshore – a bit bumpy. Thursday the 9th is similar, with 7ft and cross-onshore wind. Nothing to write home about.

Friday the 10th has 7ft from the SW, but the wind picks up to 9 mph cross-onshore, making it choppy. Saturday the 11th is completely blown out with 16 mph winds – a total write-off with a 0 score. Sunday the 12th sees a fresh cross-shore breeze at 19 mph and 8ft swell – still messy, but the afternoon brings a fresh offshore wind from the SW at 22 mph and 12ft swell. That’s cleaner, but it’s still windy.

Monday the 13th is a bit of a wake-up call. We’ve got 20ft from the SW again, period 13 seconds, with a moderate offshore breeze at 16 mph. The combined energy is strong (13027), and the wind is offshore, so it’ll be clean. But again, 20ft is huge – experts only, and it’s a big, heavy day. The rating is an 8, so there’s quality, but you’ve got to really know your spot.

The rest of the second week drops off. Tuesday the 14th has 12ft but with a strong breeze at 25 mph – too windy for clean surf. Wednesday and Thursday the 15th and 16th see the swell drop to 10ft and 7ft, respectively, with cross-offshore winds, but the energy is weak to moderate (1654-3341), and the scores are low.

Finally, we get a nice finish. Friday the 17th afternoon: 8ft from the SW, period 15 seconds, with a light cross-offshore breeze at 6 mph. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers – clean and lined up. Then Saturday the 18th is the best of the lot. Morning: glassy offshore winds from the WSW at 3 mph, 8ft swell, period 14 seconds. Afternoon: glassy again with 8ft and a light cross-offshore breeze. Both sessions are rated excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to target – clean, consistent waves at a point break, with a bit of crowd.

Overall, the best offers are Tuesday 7th morning and Saturday 18th morning/afternoon. The rest is either too big, too windy, or too marginal.

Rusty.

Read more