Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Blacknose Point over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 59° – that’s a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so you might get away with a slightly thinner suit if you’re brave.

The opening days are a bit of a slow burn. Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd have some swell around, but the conditions are messy. Tuesday morning has a 13-second WSW swell at 8ft, but with a 12 mph cross-shore wind it’s choppy and pretty average. Wednesday the 22nd afternoon is where things start to clean up nicely – an 8ft SW swell with offshore winds makes it a good session for experienced surfers, but it’s not the main event. The combined energy is moderate to strong (1818).

Thursday the 23rd sees the swell kick up hard: 13ft SW at 14 seconds, with fresh, clean offshore winds. That’s serious size – only for experts – but the wind keeps it looking nice. The energy is very strong (6565–6729). Friday the 24th morning is the first real standout: a 16ft SSW groundswell with a very long 15-second period, clean offshore winds, and the combined energy is extreme (10681). That’s an incredible day for experienced crew at this exposed point break. The long period means the waves will have real power and shape, but expect long lulls between sets.

Saturday and Sunday the 26th/27th ease off a bit but still offer solid 8–15ft SW swell with mostly offshore winds and clean conditions. The energy stays strong (929–7360). Nothing wrong with those days for a solid paddle.

Now the absolute pick of the whole run is Tuesday the 28th of July. Blacknose Point gets an 18ft SW groundswell at a very long 16-second period, with light southerly winds and clean conditions – the combined energy is massive (14242). That’s exceptional, even for experts. The swell direction matches the optimum (SSW is close enough to SW for this setup), so expect well-groomed, powerful lines.

Wednesday the 29th is still pumping: 13ft SSW at 14 seconds with glassy conditions on Wednesday morning – that’s a beautiful window before the wind swings onshore later. The energy is still very strong (5650). After that, from Thursday the 30th through to the first week of August, the swell drops back and the winds turn more cross-onshore, making the surf much less appealing. There’s a big lull from late July into early August, with only marginal or poor conditions until things try to rebuild around the 4th and 5th of August, but those days have cross-shore winds and average quality.

So, to sum up: the best sessions are Friday the 24th morning and Tuesday the 28th. That Tuesday is the real gem – massive, long-period groundswell, clean, light winds, and a point break setup that’ll handle the size. Crowds are likely at Blacknose Point though, so get in early.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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