Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but there’s a bit of a wait before the real action kicks off. We’ll start with a slow, building pattern, then move into a proper run of quality swell.

There is no surf on offer right now, so we sit tight for a couple of days. The first real chance comes Thursday morning, the 23rd of July. But honestly, it’s a tough call. We’ve got a massive 14.8 ft SW swell, with a long 14-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 15607 (that’s strong to very strong wave energy). The wind is fresh offshore from the WSW, so the surface will be clean. The problem? The water is sitting at 59.2°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that swell is just raw, powerful, and probably too big and straight for the point break. The tide and conditions are marginal, and this is really only for the advanced crew.

Friday morning, the 24th, looks like a better play. The swell is still a solid 16.4 ft from the SSW with a 15-second period and 10765 of energy. The wind is fresh offshore from the W, so it’s clean. It’s still big, but it’s a better direction for the point. This is the standout of the first week. The afternoon gets a bit cross-off, so the morning session is the one to aim for. Saturday morning, the 25th, sees the swell drop to 13.1 ft, but the wind is still offshore, so it’s another clean, big-wave day for the experienced.

After that, the swell settles down. Sunday, the 26th, and Monday, the 27th, are smaller and messy with cross-shore winds, so we’ll let those pass. Tuesday the 28th afternoon shows a bit of promise with a 9.8 ft SSW swell, a very long 16-second period, and fresh offshore wind. That’s a clean, punchy groundswell, but with that long period, it might be a bit straight at the point, so keep that in mind.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday morning, the 29th of July, is a beast. The forecast shows a 21.3 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and the energy is a staggering 22331. The wind is cross-off from the SSW, and it’s clean. The model even says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is a serious, heavy-duty, expert-only session. If you’re not in that league, stay on the beach. The afternoon is still a solid 18.0 ft, but the energy drops.

We then get a few days of smaller, mixed-up conditions. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st have poor winds and smaller surf, so not worth a paddle out.

The real gold is in the first week of August. Saturday, the 1st of August, is a stunner. The morning offers a 6.6 ft SW swell with a 13-second period, and it’s clean with a light cross-off breeze. The afternoon is even better: 7.9 ft from the SW, a very long 19-second period, and light offshore wind from the SW. The energy is 5354. This is a classic, clean groundswell on a point break. For an experienced surfer, this is as good as it gets. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is excellent. It’s a standout.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning is a bit cross-on, but the afternoon turns it around with a clean 8.2 ft SW swell, again with a long 16-second period and light offshore wind. Monday the 3rd of August keeps the run going with an 11.5 ft SW swell, a 17-second period, and clean cross-off winds. The energy is 6511, so it’s got some punch. This is a full week of quality, clean surf for the experienced surfer.

Tuesday the 4th of August is a treat with a 6.2 ft to 6.6 ft SW swell, light offshore winds, and clean conditions. It’s a bit smaller but perfect for a long session.

The last part of the outlook, from Wednesday the 5th onwards, is less certain. We get a bit of a messy mix, but Thursday the 6th of August throws up a big 13.1 ft SW swell with an 18-second period and 9424 of energy. The wind is a gentle cross-off, so it’s clean, but it’s another big one for the experts. Friday the 7th of August fades out with onshore and cross-onshore winds, so the run is over.

For the best on offer, I’d put my money on the morning of Friday the 24th of July for the big, clean, offshore swell, and the afternoon of Saturday the 1st of August for the perfect, classic groundswell with light offshore winds. Both are expert-level, but the quality is undeniable.

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