Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it. We've got one main spot on the radar for this stretch, and it's a bit of a mixed bag, so pay attention.

Overall Pattern:

The next 16 days at Blacknose Point are a real tale of two halves. The first half of the window is ruled by a big, strong Southerly groundswell, but it's a bit of a dicey one. It's going to be big, and at times, *too* big. The second half of the window looks a bit more manageable but the quality drops off with the size. The real standout, if you're an expert, is that massive pulse on the 10th. That's the day.

Right off the bat, we've got surf on offer. The water temp is sitting at 58° Fahrenheit, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest suit you own.

Friday (4th) and Saturday (5th):
The forecast kicks off with some serious size – 15ft – from the SW with a long 16-second period. This is a powerful groundswell with strong combined energy (10536) on Friday morning, but it's a bit of a messy one. The wind is cross-off, which keeps it clean, but the conditions are called marginal. Saturday, a strong breeze from the WNW ramps up that energy is still stout (4671), but the risk of thunderstorms and a drop in period to 10 seconds on the afternoon means it's going to be all over the place. This is more of a look-and-see situation than a commit-to-it day.

Sunday (6th):
Now we're talking. The wind swings offshore from the WSW, light and clean. The swell settles to a solid 10-12ft, still with a good 13-14 second period. It's not the biggest, but this is a clean, powerful point break day for the experienced crew. The conditions are flagged as excellent for experienced surfers.

Monday (7th) and Tuesday (8th):
The size backs off a touch to the 7-10ft range, but the quality stays high. Monday morning is clean despite the cross-off wind, and by Tuesday afternoon we get a proper offshore breeze with a nice 10ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period. The energy is still moderate (4719), and it's shaping up to be a very solid, rippable day.

The Big One: Wednesday (9th) and Thursday (10th):
This is the heart of the action. A massive SSW groundswell is forecast to fill in, with heights jumping to 18-20ft. The combined energy is enormous (26868), but the models are explicitly saying it's predicted to be *too big* for Blacknose Point. This is a cleanup day unless you're a certified charger. However, the morning of Thursday the 10th is your standout. The swell drops just slightly to a still-huge 18ft, but the wind goes light offshore and the conditions are labeled exceptional for expert surfers. The energy is still extreme (17849) and the period is a pumping 17 seconds. If you're an expert, this is the day. Big, clean, powerful – the best on offer.

Friday (11th) to Sunday (13th):
The energy drops significantly after that big pulse. We see the swell back down to 7-12ft, and the winds start to turn onshore. Friday morning looks magic with light offshore ENE winds and glassy conditions at 12ft, but that's the last of the good stuff for a few days. From Friday afternoon through Sunday, the wind goes cross-on and the surf gets choppier and weaker. The period stays respectable in the 14-16 second range, but the quality drops off a cliff.

Monday (14th) and Tuesday (15th):
This is the low point of the window. Monday morning sees a fresh cross-onshore breeze and poor surf at 5ft. The energy just fades out (1002). There is a glimmer of hope on Tuesday with the wind going cross-off and cleaner, but the swell is small, in the 5-8ft range and the period drops to 8-9 seconds, which is a sign of a weaker, shorter-period swell. We're in a definite lull. You're looking at about a four or five day stretch here where it just won't be worth the paddle.

The Second Week: Wednesday (16th) to Saturday (19th):
We finish the window with another big pulse of WSW groundswell arriving around the 16th with 16ft+ surf. The energy is strong again, but the wind is mostly onshore or cross, keeping it lumpy. By the 19th, the swell is swinging around and the size and quality are all over the shop. It's promising that there’s more size on the way, but the wind doesn't look like it's playing nice. It's a wait-and-see for that final weekend.

Standout Call:
That Thursday morning of the 10th is the one. Huge, clean, and powerful. For everyone else, Sunday the 6th and Tuesday afternoon the 8th are your best bets for solid conditions without being in over your head.

Alright, stay safe out there.

Rusty

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