Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Blacknose Point is the only game in town this forecast period, and it’s a solid point break that can handle a lot of size. The water’s sitting at about 60°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

We’ve got a big pulse of swell coming in right at the start. Monday morning the 13th, the swell is already pumping at 6.0m from the SW with a 16-second period – that’s serious groundswell energy, with a combined energy reading of 17479. That’s a lot of power, and for a point break like this, those long-period SW swells will wrap in nicely. The wind is a strong cross-offshore from the WNW at 25 mph, which will keep the faces clean, but 6.0m is expert territory only. Monday afternoon is similar, still massive at 6.5m and 28 mph winds, so we’re talking about heavy conditions.

Tuesday the 14th is the real standout of this first week. The swell drops a notch but is still a solid 5.0m from the SW, 15-second period, and the wind swings offshore from the WSW at 19 mph. That’s fresh, clean offshore wind on a big, powerful groundswell. The combined energy is 11723, still very strong but manageable for advanced surfers. This is the pick of the bunch – big, clean, and lined up. It stays good through Tuesday afternoon with 4.5m and the same offshore breeze.

Wednesday the 15th starts to ease. Morning sees 3.5m, SW, 14-second period, with a moderate offshore from the W at 12 mph. The energy drops to 4675, but it’s still clean. The afternoon gets a bit cross-off, so not as perfect.

Thursday the 16th is another beauty. Morning has 3.5m, SW, 15-second period, and the wind is light offshore from the W at 3 mph – almost glassy. The combined energy is 4844. By the afternoon, the wind goes glassy, dead calm, with 3.0m, SW, 15 seconds. That’s about as clean as it gets, with 4156 energy. Excellent conditions, but still plenty of size for strong intermediate to advanced surfers.

Friday the 17th is mixed. The morning has a cross-shore breeze from the NNW at 9 mph with 3.0m, SW, 16-second swell. The afternoon goes glassy again with zero wind and the same 3.0m, 16-second swell – that’s another window of perfection.

From Saturday the 18th, the swell starts to drop and the winds get messy. We’re looking at 2.0m to 2.2m for a couple days, but the wind is cross to cross-on, which chops things up. Crowds are listed as “often,” so on the clean days earlier in the week, expect company.

Then we hit a real blank spot. From Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 22nd, conditions are poor. Swell is small or the wind is howling onshore. Scores are zero for several of those sessions. That’s a stretch of about four days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Thursday the 23rd brings a change. The wind goes offshore again from the W at 12 to 16 mph, swell is around 1.6m to 1.8m from the SW, and the period jumps to 20 seconds in the afternoon. That’s a very long-period groundswell, bringing a combined energy of 2951. It’s clean and will have some sneaky shape, but be aware that long period swells can break a bit too straight at some spots – at a point like Blacknose, it should be fine, wrapping around the headland.

Friday the 24th sees a sudden jump back to big swell – 4.0m from the SW, 17-second period, with 9718 energy. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s not perfect, but the size is undeniable. Still expert-only.

Saturday the 25th drops back to 3.0m but the wind is cross-on and choppy. Sunday the 26th looks a bit better, with a cross-off breeze and 3.0m from the SSW, but it’s light rain and fresh wind.

Overall, the absolute standout window is Tuesday the 14th through Thursday the 16th, with Thursday afternoon’s glassy conditions being the real gem. The second week has some promise with a clean, long-period groundswell on the 23rd and a big spike on the 24th, but the winds are less reliable farther out.

Keep an eye on that Tuesday and Thursday. Those are the ones to circle.

Rusty

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