Blacknose Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

It’s going to be a bit of a slow burn at Blacknose Point, but there’s a proper window of grunty, clean swell coming in that will make it worth the wait. The swell energy is ramping up to some serious numbers, and when the wind plays ball, this spot will be firing.

The early part of the week is a write-off. Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd are only offering up marginal surf with a messy cross-shore chop, even though the swell is around 8 feet to 8 feet. The wind is just too messy for it to be any good. Not worth paddling out for.

The real standout is Thursday 23rd July. The morning session is the best on offer. We’ve got a solid 15-foot swell from the SW, with a long period of 14 seconds, and a fresh offshore wind from the SW. That’s a proper groundswell at a point break, and the combined energy is a massive 15,370 (strong to very strong). It’s going to be big, powerful, and clean. This is advanced territory – over 8 feet is for experts only, so keep that in mind. The afternoon is still good but the wind picks up a bit, and the energy drops to 6,827.

Friday 24th July is another big one, with a 16-foot swell from the SSW and a 16-second period in the morning. The wind is cross-offshore from the W, keeping it clean. The energy is huge at 12,220. Again, this is for experienced surfers only. The afternoon sees a drop in size and period, but it’s still clean.

Saturday 25th and Sunday 26th July are still solid with 13-foot to 8-foot swells, offshore winds, and clean conditions. The energy is still strong, but it’s a step down from the peak on Thursday and Friday. Excellent for experienced surfers on Sunday, with a gentle offshore breeze.

After that, the week starting Monday 27th July still has some decent 13-foot swell with clean cross-offshore winds, but the energy is tapering off. The real drama comes back in on Tuesday 28th July with another 16-foot, 16-second groundswell from the SW (energy 11,470), but the wind turns cross-shore from the NNW, messing up the face. The swell is there, but the wind is a downgrade.

Wednesday 29th July is a no-go. A 16-foot, 17-second swell (energy 14,473) is going to be a complete mess with a strong cross-shore wind and a 25 mph wind. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The afternoon improves to a clean cross-offshore, but the damage is done.

The forecast gets more uncertain into the second week. Thursday 30th July offers a clean 13-foot SSW swell with offshore winds, but the energy is dropping. Then it gets poor from Friday 31st July through to Monday 3rd August, with onshore winds, lumpy conditions, and the swell dropping to nothing. A blank run of a few days is on the cards. The best bet in that dead period is Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th August, which show a 8-foot to 10-foot SW groundswell with a very long period (18-19 seconds) and clean cross-offshore winds. That’s promising, but it’s a long way out, so treat it as a hopeful possibility rather than a certainty.

So, to sum it up: Thursday 23rd July morning is the absolute standout – big, clean, and powerful. Friday 24th July morning is a close second. After that, the window tightens up. Keep your eyes on the long-range for Tuesday 4th August.

Rusty.

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