Marengo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Marengo over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a significant window of surf coming, but timing and conditions are going to be everything.

We kick off Tuesday the 11th, but don’t get too excited just yet. Early on it’s a bit of a tease with a 5ft swell from the SW. The issue is the wind is cross-off from the NW, so it’s not totally clean, and the combined swell energy is still moderate (979). The morning session might have a few workable ones for the beginners out there, but the afternoon drops off to 4ft. The real news comes the following day.

Wednesday the 12th is where this forecast really lights up. We’re looking at a major pulse of groundswell. The morning bumps up to a solid 13ft from the WSW, and then the afternoon pushes it to a hefty 15ft from the same direction. Now, this is big. The combined swell energy is through the roof (10476 and 12827), strong to very strong stuff. The wind is pure offshore from the W at 30 km/h, which will keep the faces clean, but let’s be real: 15ft at a reef-and-point setup like this is not for the faint of heart. This is expert-only territory. The waves will have that long-period energy (16-17 seconds), meaning they’ll be powerful, with good shape but long lulls between sets. Beginners, sit this one out; experts, get your board ready.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th see the swell settle a touch, but it’s still a beast. We’re looking at 8ft to 10ft from the SW, with solid 16-second periods. The combined energy is still very strong (over 3000). The wind stays offshore on the Thursday (WSW and W), which is excellent, though it’s a moderate breeze. By Friday afternoon, the wind goes cross-off, so that top-tier cleanness is gone, but the wave quality should still be good for those with experience. This is still big and powerful, definitely for intermediate-to-advanced surfers.

Saturday the 15th is a drop in size to a more manageable 7ft, but we lose the direct offshore. The morning has a light breeze from the SSW, cross-off. It’s clean, but not as clean as the offshore days. Crowds at Marengo are "sometimes" an issue, so with a good 7ft swell on a Saturday, you can expect a few locals out. The combined swell energy is still moderate-to-strong (2039), so it’s got some push.

Then we hit a bit of a flat patch. From late Saturday afternoon through to about Wednesday the 19th, the surf drops significantly. Sunday the 16th has 5ft but the wind goes onshore, so it’s messy. Monday the 17th is even smaller, with poor wind. The real highlight in the second week is Tuesday the 18th. The swell is only 4ft from the SW, but the wind is glassy from the NNE in the morning. The combined energy is moderate (898), but for a clean, small day, it’s a beauty for the longboard. Get out early before the wind swings onshore in the afternoon.

After that, it’s small and mostly poor. The end of the week into the next weekend has some pulses of new swell (6ft on the 23rd from the SE, but with a shockingly short 8-second period, which is junk). There’s a decent 5ft on the 25th from the SW with a long 18-second period, but again, the wind is onshore. It’s a frustrating pattern where the swell and wind just don’t line up for clean, quality waves after that initial burst.

Best Bet: If you’re an expert and you want the heaviest, cleanest waves of the period, you’re looking at Wednesday the 12th. The morning is big, but the afternoon is epic with that 15ft and fresh offshore wind. For the mere mortals, the Tuesday the 18th dawn session with glassy conditions and knee-to-waist high waves will be a quiet, clean treat.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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