Marengo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here with a proper look at the swell window for the Marengo stretch. It’s a reef and point set-up that takes a fair bit of south-west groundswell, and we’ve got a wild ride ahead over the next couple of weeks. Water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so grab the boots if you’re fussy.

We kick things off proper on Friday morning, the 7th. It’s not huge, maybe 5ft of SW swell with a long 16-second period pushing in. That’s proper groundswell, and with a light NW cross-off wind, it’s going to be clean, lined-up, and just about perfect for the point. The combined energy is moderate at 1023, but the quality is there. Friday afternoon drops a touch to 4ft, but the wind goes glassy with a slight SSE air and the swell holds at 15 seconds. If you can get out there, this is the calm before the storm and a real treat.

Saturday the 8th sees the wind swing to a cross-shore N at 12 mph and the quality drops off. It’s marginal, a bit bumpy, and honestly, not worth your time unless you’re desperate. Sunday is worse—light rain, onshore chop, and the swell slims down. You’re looking at a couple of days of flat to poor conditions. Sit tight.

Then things get properly interesting. Monday the 10th rolls in with a WSW wind and the swell starts to build. Morning is 6ft but messy with a strong breeze. But the afternoon is where it wakes up: 10ft of SW swell with a 17-second period and the combined energy jumping to 7661—that’s strong, and it’s clean. The cross-off wind keeps the face tidy, but 10ft is starting to get serious. This might be a little much for the beginners, but experienced surfers will be scratching.

Tuesday the 11th backs off a bit to 5ft, but the wind is cross-off and clean. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. Then Wednesday the 12th is when the real freight train hits. The morning pushes 15ft of WSW swell—energy is 12253, strong to very strong—but it’s raining and the wind is fresh. Not ideal. The afternoon drops to 7ft, but with a strong offshore W at 28 mph, it’s clean, but it’s going to be a battle to get out the back. That’s a paddle for fit surfers only.

Now, here’s the standout. Thursday the 13th – both morning and afternoon – is the pick of the entire run. We’re looking at a solid 18ft of WSW swell with a 15-second period and the combined energy screaming at 18447. The wind is moderate offshore, WSW then WNW, keeping it clean and grinding. This is big, powerful, expert-only territory. If you know what you’re doing on a reef, this is as good as it gets. The point will be handling it better than the beach, but you need your wits about you. This is the one.

Friday the 14th drops back to a more manageable 7ft in the morning with offshore winds—good for the experienced crew. The afternoon sees the swell kick back up to 10ft with a long 19-second period, but a light S cross-wind puts a few ripples on it. Still good, but Thursday was the day.

Saturday the 15th is a cracker too. Glassy conditions, light E and then SE winds, and a solid 10ft of SW swell with a 17-second period. Combined energy is around 4981, so it’s strong, but it’s clean and will have proper shape. This is another excellent day for those who can handle it.

Sunday the 16th and into next week, the swell settles. Sunday morning is 6ft and glassy—nice for the intermediates. The rest of the week holds 3ft to 5ft of SW swell, mostly clean in the mornings, but the wind starts turning onshore in the afternoons. It’s not bad, but it’s not the big show anymore.

Looking further out to Saturday the 22nd, there’s a hint of something interesting—a possible 12ft pulse with a shorter 10-second period, which is windswell mixed in. It’s glassy in the morning, but that short period won’t have the same grunt as the groundswell. That’s a promising one for the long-range, but I’d hold off on planning the dawn patrol around it just yet.

So, the standout is clearly Thursday the 13th—huge, clean, and powerful. If that’s too much, Saturday the 15th is your best bet for a solid but slightly more manageable session. The rest of the window has its moments, but those two days are the ones worth chasing.

Remember, it’s a reef and point break, so that long-period SW swell will be threading down the line beautifully. Just check the tides and don’t be a hero on Thursday if you’re not up for it.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty

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