Marengo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – looks like we’re in for a bit of a slow start, but there’s a monster of a swell waiting for us down the track. This forecast is all about Marengo, a reef and point setup that's fairly consistent and fairly exposed, with an optimum swell from the SSW. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Sunday the 2nd has a solid 6ft SW swell with a long 16-second period, but that cross-shore wind from the north at 12 mph is going to put a chop on it, and the surf is marginal. Not worth paddling out for. Monday the 3rd morning is a bit cleaner with proper offshore wind from the west at 16 mph, and 4ft SW swell, but it’s small. The afternoon picks up though – 7ft from the west with a shorter 10-second period, and clean offshore wind. That’s a solid wave for experienced surfers, with moderate wave energy (1671). Tuesday the 4th brings bigger swell, 8ft SW at 12 seconds, but the wind is a fresh cross-offshore at 19 mph, making it a bit of a battle. The combined energy is strong (2956), but the conditions are marginal.

We get a bit of a lull from Wednesday the 5th through to Saturday the 8th, with small waves around 2ft to 4ft. Clean, gentle offshore winds, but just not enough size to get excited about. Sunday the 9th is a total bust with poor surf conditions and cross-shore wind.

Now, the real action starts to build. Monday the 10th has a clean 5ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, and the wind is cross-offshore. That’s a nice, clean line, but the comment says marginal. Tuesday the 11th is a write-off again with fresh breeze. Wednesday the 12th is messy with onshore wind.

Now for the standout. Thursday the 13th morning is clean, but it’s the morning of Friday the 14th that is the one to circle. We’ve got a 8ft SW groundswell with a very long 18-second period, clean with a gentle breeze, and the combined energy is a massive 4113 – that’s strong to very strong. This is an excellent wave for experienced surfers only. Because it’s such a long period, it’s going to be a freight train on the reef, so it’s best left to the crew who know what they’re doing. The afternoon stays clean with 8ft and offshore wind.

Saturday the 15th afternoon is the absolute peak. We’re looking at an exceptional 15ft SW swell with a 16-second period, gentle offshore wind, and the combined energy is an insane 12445. This is expert-only territory. The reef is going to be absolutely pumping, but it’s dangerous. If you’re not on your game, stay on the beach. Sunday the 16th still has clean 8ft and 7ft swell, and Monday the 17th morning goes glassy with a 4ft SSW swell, a perfect way to wind down.

So, the plan is simple: sit tight through the first week, then be ready for Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th. That’s where the magic is. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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