Oberon Bay (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s been a rough stretch and it’s going to stay that way for a while. For Oberon Bay (Wilsons Promontory), the next week and a half is mostly a write-off. We’re talking about a run of poor to marginal conditions that lasts from Monday the 13th of July, right through until Friday the 24th. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year – nothing weird there – but the wind and swell just aren’t playing ball.

Monday the 13th is a complete mess. A near gale cross-onshore at 31 mph is smashing into a 10ft WSW groundswell with a very long 15-second period. The combined wave energy is a massive 3812 (moderate), but it’s blown out, ugly, and strictly for the hardcore or the kite crew. Tuesday the 14th is nearly as bad – onshore winds at 25 mph with 8ft swell, period dropping to 9 seconds in the afternoon (energy 1694), and rain to boot. Wednesday and Thursday see the swell ease, but it’s still onshore and lumpy. Friday the 17th is interesting – the morning is marginal with a light cross-on breeze, but the afternoon turns glassy with a 4ft SW groundswell (16-second period, 644 energy). That’s the first real glimpse of something half-decent, but it’s small. Saturday the 18th drops right back off to 3ft or less, and the wind swings around again.

From Sunday the 19th through to Friday the 24th, it’s a real struggle – most days show poor surf conditions with choppy cross-onshore winds and tiny swell under 3ft. The combined energy dips into the double digits at 84 on the 23rd. Honestly, if you’re looking for paddle surfing here, you might be better off checking the kite forecast because there’s plenty of wind but no quality.

Now, here’s the little glimmer. The best on offer is actually split over two windows. Saturday the 25th of July – that’s over a week away – brings a standout afternoon session. A clean, cross-offshore breeze from the north at 12 mph, with a 7ft WSW swell (short 9-second period, 1333 energy). It’s a bit short-period, but clean and punchy for the bigger boards. Tuesday the 28th of July also looks promising – morning shows clean cross-offshore wind with an 8ft WSW swell (10-second period, 1262 energy), and by the afternoon it’s the real highlight: gentle cross-off breeze, 7ft SW swell (10-second period, 835 energy) and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the one to circle. Energy is moderate, and the size at 8ft is pushing into expert territory for beginners, but for intermediate and above it’s a solid session.

Keep in mind this spot is fairly exposed and picks up SW swell, so the direction is on. It’s fairly consistent, and crowds are sometimes an issue – worth an early paddle. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain, so check back closer to the day.

Rusty.

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