Darbys (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window ahead, but I’ll be straight with you – for the first week and a half or so, it’s looking pretty grim. The only break on the radar is Darbys (Wilsons Promontory), and it’s a tough one to call right now.

The overall pattern is dominated by onshore and cross-shore winds, with a lot of lumpy, choppy conditions. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

Let’s start with the first real chance. Saturday morning, the 18th of July, we have a 3ft swell from the SW with a 14-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, which is promising, but the wind is cross-on at 6 mph, and the wave energy is moderate (401). The report says “poor surf conditions,” so I wouldn’t get too excited. The afternoon stays similar with a 4ft swell, still cross-on.

Sunday the 19th of July is the first real standout. The morning is glassy with a 2ft SW groundswell, 13-second period. The energy is moderate (192). Afternoon stays glassy, wind goes calm, with a 2ft swell from the WSW. These are clean, small, and surfable – best for a beginner to get a few easy ones. The waves are ordinary, but the glassy wind makes it the best on offer in the near term.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are a write-off – poor conditions, cross and cross-on winds, and the swell drops to 1ft to 2ft Monday. Tuesday afternoon sees a bit of a jump to 5ft (W) with a 13-second period, energy is strong (1035), but the wind is cross and the report says “marginal.” Still not great.

Then from Wednesday the 22nd of July through to the end of July, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. Winds are fresh to strong, mostly cross-on, and the swell bumps up and down. The 25th of July has a 6ft WSW swell with fresh cross winds, but the energy is strong (1087 to 1121) – that’s more of a messy, lumpy day. Not worth paddling out.

The real change comes on the 31st of July. Friday morning, the wind drops to a light breeze from the NW, cross-on, with an 8ft SW swell at 9 seconds. That’s a big, short-period swell – over 8ft, so it’s expert-only territory. The energy is strong (1124). The report calls it “marginal,” but it’s the first sign of life.

The standout for the whole outlook is Saturday the 1st of August. Morning brings an 8ft SW swell, 10-second period, with a light ESE cross-offshore wind at 9 mph. The report says “clean” conditions. Energy is very strong (1510). That’s a big, clean swell for experts only. The afternoon bumps up to 10ft from the SW, 11 seconds, with a moderate E wind at 16 mph, still cross-off and clean. That’s going to be a heavy, powerful day at Darbys. The swell direction is SW, which matches the optimum – that’s a good sign.

Sunday the 2nd of August drops back to 5ft, still with a clean cross-offshore wind from the ESE, but the swell period is 12 seconds – long period groundswell. Energy is moderate (852). This one is more manageable for strong intermediates, but still a solid day.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly a bust. The only real standouts are Sunday the 19th of July for small, clean, beginner-friendly waves, and then Saturday the 1st of August for a big, clean, expert-only swell. The 1st of August is the best on offer – big, clean, and the direction is right. But keep in mind, it’s a long-range call, so don’t lock it in just yet.

If you’re a beginner, stick to the 19th of July. For the big stuff, wait for the 1st of August. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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