Darbys (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast for Darbys is a tough one to call. The first week and a half is pretty much a write-off for any decent surf, with a run of poor conditions that’ll test your patience. But there’s a glimmer of hope right at the tail end of the window, so don’t write the whole thing off just yet.

The water is sitting at 56° – that’s about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

We start on Friday, the 4th of September. The morning has a 7ft WSW swell rolling in at a long 16 seconds, but the wind is a cross-on from the NW at 16 mph, making it choppy and messy. The combined energy is moderate (1982) but the conditions are just poor. The afternoon is much the same – a bit of wind shift but still cross-on and not worth paddling out. Saturday the 5th shows a slight improvement. The morning has a smaller 5ft WSW swell on a 12 mph cross-off breeze from the north, which cleans things up a bit. It’s still marginal, but you might find a sneaky one if you’re a beginner. The afternoon turns ugly again with a 28 mph cross-on wind and a 6ft W swell – that’s a strong breeze, messy and dangerous. Skip it.

Sunday the 6th through to Wednesday the 10th is a brutal stretch. Onshore winds, fresh breezes, and onshore swell from the SW. On the 9th, the combined energy spikes to 4747 with a 8ft SW swell at 19 seconds – that’s a lot of power, but with a 22 mph cross-on wind, it’s just a washing machine. Too big for beginners and messy for anyone else. Thursday the 10th has a 7ft SW swell but again, cross-on wind and choppy conditions. The energy is still high (4299) but the quality is zero.

From Friday the 11th to Monday the 14th, the swell drops right off. We’re talking 2ft to 4ft SW swells, with light winds. The morning of Monday the 14th has a light cross-off breeze from the NNE, making things clean, but the waves are tiny – only 2ft. It’s surfable, but you’ll be fighting for barely any push. The afternoon is similar.

Then we hit a gap of a few days with nothing really on offer until we get to the standout. Wednesday the 16th of September is the one to circle. The afternoon session brings a 8ft WSW swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy hits 3331. But the real kicker is the wind: an onshore breeze at just 3 mph – that’s nearly glassy, and it’s coming from the west straight into the break. This is a rare moment of clean, powerful groundswell. This setup is best for point breaks and reefs, and Darbys (Wilsons Promontory) is a beach break, so that long period might make it a bit straight and unruly, but the quality of the swell and the light wind make it the best on offer in the whole 16-day window. It’s a promising but not certain call, being so far out, but it’s the one to watch.

Thursday the 17th is a no-go – 10ft SW swell but with a 22 mph cross-on wind, just huge and dangerous. Then Friday the 18th could be another good one. The morning has a 8ft SW swell at a very long 21 seconds, with a light cross-shore breeze from the south at 6 mph. The combined energy is massive at 6079 – that’s very strong. It’s marginal due to the wind direction, but the light breeze and clean conditions make it a solid option for experienced surfers. Saturday the 19th fades out with a 5ft to 7ft mix, but the light winds keep it surfable, just not a standout.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a right-off. The best chance for a proper session is the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th, with the morning of Friday the 18th as a strong backup. Get out there if you can.

Rusty.

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