Darbys (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this forecast out. It’s Rusty here.

First up, looking at the 16-day window… honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burner for the region. The first few days are pretty grim, but there’s a definite light at the end of the tunnel. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming in, but the onshore winds are going to make it a tough slog for a while. The standout period is toward the end of the month and into the first of August.

Darbys (Wilsons Promontory) is the only break on the cards here. It’s a consistent spot, but the crowd factor is ‘sometimes’, so you might get a few locals out, but it’s not a zoo.

We start off the forecast on Tuesday, July 21st. The morning kicks off with a 3ft swell from the WSW, but it’s a cross-shore wind, and the energy is moderate (combined energy of 552). The waves are there, but it’s marginal. The afternoon doesn’t get much better with the same size and lighter cross-shore wind, but still a little messy. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

Wednesday, July 22nd, is a write-off. The swell bumps up to 4ft in the morning, then 5ft in the afternoon, but the wind is a fresh, lumpy cross-onshore. The energy is weak to moderate (226 and 212). It’s poor. This trend continues through Thursday, July 23rd, and Friday, July 24th. The swell gets bigger – 6ft to 7ft on Thursday, and up to 8ft on Friday morning – but the wind is onshore and strong. The combined energy hits strong levels (1340, 1903, 3403), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. For the average surfer, this is a no-go. For experts, it’s still a messy, blown-out mess. Honestly, if you’re into kite surfing, this setup looks more interesting than paddle surfing.

The weekend, July 25th and 26th, is still rough. Saturday has a 7ft to 6ft WSW swell with strong onshore winds, and Sunday drops to 6ft but still onshore. The energy is moderate to strong (794, 671, 1149). No good.

Monday, July 27th, is another day of onshore winds and a 7ft lumpy swell. Not worth it.

Then we get a glimmer. Tuesday, July 28th. The swell is still a solid 6ft from the SW, but the wind turns to a moderate cross-shore. The energy is very strong (1869 and 2895). It’s still marginal, but the tide conditions are questionable. It’s a step in the right direction.

Now, here’s the first real standout. Wednesday, July 29th. The morning is the pick. The swell is 5ft from the SW, but the wind is a clean cross-offshore breeze from the north. The energy is strong (1514). This is the first time we see ‘clean’ conditions. The afternoon gets a bit cross-chop again, but the morning session is the one.

Thursday, July 30th, is another good one. The morning has a 6ft SW swell with a gentle cross-shore breeze and strong energy (1576). The afternoon is even better: a 5ft SW swell, almost no wind at 3 mph, and a cross-offshore flow. The energy is strong (1233). This is very good surf.

Friday, July 31st, is the absolute best of the entire forecast. Morning session: 6ft SW swell, light offshore wind from the southeast, and the energy is strong (1424). The word is ‘excellent’. The afternoon holds up with 6ft and clean conditions. This is a day for experienced surfers, but it’s clean. The water is still about average for the time of year.

Saturday, August 1st, is a nice reward. The morning has a 4ft SW swell with a light offshore wind from the northeast. The energy is moderate (654). Clean. The afternoon drops to 3ft, but the wind is offshore and gentle. The crowd factor is ‘sometimes’, so you might get a few, but it’s well worth it.

After that, the surf drops off. Sunday, August 2nd, has a 3ft swell but the wind turns onshore, and by Monday, August 3rd, it’s a washout with strong cross-onshore winds and tiny swell. The energy drops to weak (89 and 63). The last few days of the forecast through to August 5th stay poor.

So, the bottom line: the first week is a write-off. Don’t bother. The window from Wednesday, July 29th through to Saturday, August 1st is your go. The absolute standout is Friday, July 31st, with that clean, offshore wind and a solid 6ft SW groundswell (period around 14 seconds, so plenty of energy and shape, but at a beach break like Darbys, it might be a bit straight, so keep your eyes open). That’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Stay salty.

Rusty.

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