Pea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.

Right off the bat, here’s the situation. For the next few days, it’s gonna be a bit of a mixed bag. There’s a lot of swell on the way, but the wind isn’t always going to play nice. The standout window, and the one you want to circle on your calendar, is shaping up to be the Sunday and Monday that roll around on the 6th and 7th of September.

Pea Break is a reef break, so it handles a decent swell, and it’s pretty exposed to that SW groundswell. For a first look on Saturday the 29th, it’s already 7ft of SW swell with a very long 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, with combined energy reading 3123 (moderate to strong). The water’s sitting at 64°, which is pretty much normal for the time of year. The issue is that ESE wind at 16 mph is blowing cross-off, which cleans it up, but the report flags it as "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." Saturday afternoon sees the swell jump to 10ft, still that long 17-second period, and combined energy hits 4856. It’s clean, but the tide call is still a worry, so it’s not a green light.

Sunday the 30th is bigger, with 10ft of WSW swell and 17-second periods, but the morning has a NE wind at 12 mph blowing cross, putting a chop on it. Afternoon swings to a light NW wind at 6 mph that’s straight offshore, which is a huge positive, but the same "marginal surf" tide note is attached. It’s a tease.

Then we hit a rough patch. Monday the 31st through to Thursday the 3rd of September is mostly onshore or strong winds. Monday morning has 8ft of WSW swell but a cross-onshore WNW wind at 16 mph, so it’s choppy and rated "poor surf conditions". That afternoon has a 25 mph SSW wind that’s cross-off, so it’s clean but it’s also blowing a gale.

The 4th of September (Friday) has some hope. A big 13ft SW swell with a 13-second period rolls in, combined energy is 4741. The SSW wind is 25 mph again, but it’s cross-off, so it’s clean. Still, for this spot, the tide call is questionable. It’s big, it’s for experts only at this size.

Now, here’s where it gets good. Saturday the 5th of September is messy in the morning, but the afternoon brings a massive 20ft swell (SW, 12-second period) and the combined energy is off the charts at 11728. The wind is SW at 22 mph blowing cross, so it’s lumpy, but that’s just raw power. This is strictly big-wave territory.

The Real Standout: Sunday, 6th of September. This is it. Pea Break is calling. A 15ft SW swell with a 14-second period and combined energy of 9018. The wind is a gentle SSW breeze at 9 mph, blowing cross-off, keeping it clean. The report says "exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers." This is the one. You need to be on it. The afternoon drops to 13ft but the period stretches to 15 seconds, and the combined energy is 10279, with a cross-off SW wind at 12 mph. Still clean.

Then, Monday the 7th of September morning is a dream scenario. You’ve got 12ft of that long-period SW groundswell at 16 seconds, combined energy 6119, and the wind is a glassy 3 mph from the SW. "Excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This will be clean and lined up. Because it’s a reef break, that long-period swell will run in with plenty of shape.

After that, the middle of the week (Tuesday 8th through Thursday 10th) is a bit of a write-off with onshore winds. But wait for Thursday the 10th of September afternoon. A 13ft WSW swell with a 16-second period, combined energy of 9206, and a gentle 9 mph SSE wind that’s blowing straight offshore. "Exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers." That is another absolute cracker of a session if you can make it.

The final week gets huge again. Saturday the 12th morning is 15ft with 17-second periods (12046 energy) but is cross-onshore. Sunday the 13th holds a solid 16ft at 17 seconds (13433 energy) with cross-shore wind in the morning and then a cleaner cross-off wind in the afternoon. If you’re a charger, that Sunday afternoon could be good, but the wind is fresh at 19 mph.

So, to sum it up: the first few days have swell but the wind and tide are messy. The absolute best bets are the morning of Sunday the 6th of September and the afternoon of Thursday the 10th of September. Those are the standouts. Get on it.

- Rusty

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