Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Spot x.

Right now we’re in a bit of a rough patch. That big westerly swell rolling in on the 17th is packing some serious punch with combined energy readings up around 8700 to 8856, but it’s blowing a gale from the west, peaking at 31 mph, and the surf is just poor. That's nearly 18ft of messy, onshore slop – definitely not one for the quiver.

We’ve got a long stretch of questionable conditions through the first week. The swell sticks around, but the wind stays ugly, mostly onshore or cross-onshore through until the morning of Saturday the 22nd. That’s a solid five days of waiting.

Now, Saturday the 22nd morning is where I start to get a bit excited. The wind drops to absolute glass – 0 mph – and we’ve still got a solid 10ft swell rolling in from the southwest with a long 16-second period. That’s a groundswell with plenty of energy (4075). The glassy conditions mean the surface will be like a mirror. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 66°, about 3° above average, so it’s a tiny bit balmier than usual for this time of year. Spot x is a very consistent reef break here, exposed to the swell, and its optimum direction is WSW, which is spot on for this swell. It’s a setup that handles long-period energy well, so the shape should be solid. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, and with conditions this good on a Saturday morning, you can bet there’ll be a few others thinking the same. This is the standout of the whole period.

After that Saturday high, things go south again. Sunday the 23rd sees strong breezes kick up, and the whole next week is a mix of messy cross-shore winds and poor surf quality. Not worth paddling out.

But then, look at the last few days of August and into September. The swell picks up again big time. On Saturday the 29th, we’ve got a 15ft swell from the WSW with a 16-second period, combined energy hitting 10150. Wind is offshore from the north at 16 mph, keeping things clean. That’s a big, powerful swell, over 8ft, so definitely for experts only. It’s more than a week away, though, so keep an eye on the long-range forecasts – this one has promise but isn’t locked in. That 15ft on the 29th morning, with offshore wind, is the other true standout in the window.

There’s another pulse on the 1st of September, with an 18ft monster from the southwest, but the onshore winds return, so it’s likely a pass for paddle surfing.

So in short: the first five days are a write-off. The absolute best chance you’ve got is Saturday the 22nd morning for some clean, powerful waves at head-high-plus. Then get ready for a potentially epic, big swell window on the 29th. The rest? Leave it for the kites.

Rusty.

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