Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Spot X over the next couple of weeks.

We're looking at a real mixed bag, with a big, powerful swell rolling in but the wind is going to be a major factor. The water is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest wetsuit.

The first window of opportunity kicks off Thursday morning, the 27th of August. There's a solid 13ft SW groundswell (15 second period) in the water, and the energy is pumping hard with a reading of 6486. However, the wind is a cross-shore 19 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop. It's a bit of a washing machine and the wave comment says it's marginal. Not the best to start, but there's a lot of water moving.

By Friday morning, the 28th, the swell eases to 8ft from the SW (12 seconds) and the wind swings to a cross-offshore 12 mph. The energy is still moderate at 1527, and the conditions are clean. This is a much more manageable size for a solid paddle session, but it's still not a standout.

The real standout of the entire forecast is Saturday the 29th of August, into Sunday the 30th. Saturday afternoon is the first sign of the magic: a 10ft SW groundswell (17 seconds) with a gentle 9 mph offshore wind from the NE. The energy is strong at 4856, and the report calls it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is a serious, powerful groundswell with a long period (17 seconds), so it's going to be a very clean, well-shaped wave at this reef. The period is long enough that the sets will be spaced out, but the shape should be excellent given the reef setup. It's a big swell at 10ft, so this is firmly in the "experienced surfers only" zone.

Sunday the 30th morning is the absolute peak. The swell holds at 10ft, but shifts slightly to a more optimum WSW direction, the period stays long at 17 seconds, and the wind is again a perfect 9 mph offshore from the NE. The energy is at a massive 6043, and the report calls it "exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers". This is the best morning of the whole 16 days, no question. The crowd profile says "sometimes", so you might see a few others out, but that's a small price to pay for perfection.

After that, the winds get ugly. From Monday the 31st right through to the end of the first week of September, it's a train of onshore or cross-onshore winds in the 16-22 mph range, with a big, messy swell. The swell size will be between 8ft and 15ft, but the wind will trash it. This is a period where the reef will be a mess of whitewater, and honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After a long gap of poor conditions, there is another glimmer of hope. On Monday the 7th of September, the wind swings back to a clean 6 mph offshore from the ENE, with a 12ft SW groundswell (15 seconds). The energy is strong at 5228, and the report calls it "exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers". This is a promising long-range call, but it's a way off, so keep your fingers crossed that the wind forecast holds. It's another big one, so expert only territory again.

The rest of the second week looks like a return to choppy, windy conditions, with the occasional small window of marginal surf. All in all, the first weekend is your best bet. If you're a strong surfer, point your board at Spot X for Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more