Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Spot X is a tough one. There’s a real gap at the start, with nothing worth paddling out for until Wednesday the 15th of July, and even then, it’s a struggle. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until the afternoon of Friday the 24th of July. That’s over a week of waiting.

The pattern is dominated by a lot of strong, onshore wind and big, messy swell. We’re talking a solid run of days where the wind is just howling in from the west and southwest, making everything a chop-fest. The water temp is sitting around 66°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re getting blown off your board.

Wednesday the 15th of July is the first time we see anything, but it’s a raw deal. The swell is there – 7ft to 8ft from the SW with a long period of 14 to 16 seconds – and the combined energy is strong, around 3149 to 3278. But the wind is a screaming 25 mph from the NNE, making it a cross-off wind. It’s clean but it’s barely surfable with that much breeze. The morning is the slightly better call, but it’s a low score.

The next few days, from Thursday the 16th through to Saturday the 19th, are a write-off. The wind goes onshore or cross-on, and the swell gets huge – up to 16ft with a combined energy of 9200 on Saturday morning. That’s way too big for anyone except the most experienced, and the conditions are described as “poor” with heavy onshore winds. It’s a real mess.

We get a bit of a breather mid-week, but Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are still onshore and lumpy. The swell stays big, in the 8ft to 13ft range, but the wind is just ruining it. By Wednesday the 22nd of July, the afternoon shows a glimmer, with a 15ft SW swell (16-second period) and a combined energy of 9328, but it’s still onshore.

The standout window – the only one I’d even bother calling a window – is Friday the 24th of July. The afternoon is the best on offer. The wind swings around to a light 9 mph from the NNE, giving us clean, cross-off conditions. The swell is a solid 8ft from the SW with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 2005. This is the day to be at Spot X, a reef break that’s very consistent. The crowd is listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few mates out, but with this being the only decent day in a fortnight, expect some company. The break is exposed to the swell, and the direction from the SW matches the optimum direction of WSW, so it’s well-aligned. It’s clean, it’s manageable for an intermediate, and it’s the clear winner. The Thursday the 23rd of July afternoons are a back-up, but the wind is cross-on and choppy, so it’s not as good.

After the 24th, it all goes south again. Saturday the 25th drops off, and the wind turns cross-shore and lumpy. Then from Sunday the 26th onwards, it’s back to strong onshore wind and messy surf. The 30th of July shows a big 12ft swell with a massive 17-second period and a combined energy of 7371, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy. For a reef break like Spot X, that long period could actually make it break a bit too straight, and with the chop, it’s not a great bet.

Honestly, if you’re not out there on the afternoon of Friday the 24th, you’re probably better off keeping the board in the car. The rest of the window is a write-off, with long gaps of poor conditions. The forecast can always change, but this one’s looking bleak.

Rusty.

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