Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Howdy, Rusty here. Let’s just say the next 16 days at Spotx are going to sort the men from the boys. There’s plenty of juice in the water, but the wind is gonna be the bully most of the time. The water temp is a balmy 68°F, which is about 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year—pretty toasty, so enjoy that.

The start of the week is a total washout. Monday has a raw 15-foot SW swell (combined energy of 4392) getting hammered by a strong cross-onshore wind—total blown-out mess. Tuesday gets worse: the swell jumps to a monstrous 18-foot from the SW with a 16-second period (energy of 15270). That’s proper heavy groundswell, but the wind is still wrong. No good for the average surfer—experts only, and even then, it’s a handful.

Wednesday shows a little light. The wind turns offshore from the WSW in the morning with a gentle 9 mph breeze. We’ve got a 13-foot SW swell with a 14-second period (energy of 6041). It’s still marginal, but if you know the reef and can handle the size, there are waves to be had. Thursday is even better: morning is a 13-foot SW swell with a very long 17-second period (energy of 7878) and light cross-onshore wind. The afternoon turns glassy dead calm. That long period stuff will stand up nicely on the reef, just be patient for the sets.

Here’s the real deal. Friday, August 14th, is your pick. Morning brings a clean offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph with a clean 12-foot SW swell and a long 16-second period (energy of 5464). The commentary says it’s “exceptional” for expert surfers—that’s your moment. Then the afternoon is glassy. Dead calm, clean lines. That is the session to circle on the calendar. It’s still big, so not for the faint-hearted, but for the crew that can handle it, that’s the dream.

Saturday drops to a smaller 8-foot WSW swell (energy of 2276) with a cross-offshore breeze. Clean but nothing to get excited about. Sunday is back up to 10-foot WSW but with a stronger breeze, so clean but a bit lumpy.

The second week brings more size and more wind trouble. Monday August 17th has a 13-foot WSW swell with an 18-second period (energy of 9555) but it’s cross-shore and lumpy. Tuesday 18th looks cleaner with a light cross-offshore breeze and 12-foot WSW swell (energy of 4918)—decent for the experienced.

Then from Wednesday 19th through Saturday 22nd, it’s a storm. Onshore or cross-onshore winds howling, swells consistently over 15-foot, some hitting 20-foot with energy readings over 18000. That’s flat-out dangerous, blown-out surf. Kiteboarding conditions would be wild, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a stay-away zone.

The good news returns Sunday August 23rd. Morning has a clean cross-offshore breeze from the NE with a solid 12-foot SW swell (energy of 4946). That’s a quality window for experienced surfers. After that, the last two days fade into messy, blown-out conditions with a tiny 6-foot swell and a severe gale on Tuesday 25th—just stay home.

Bottom line: there’s a big gap of bad conditions up front, then a pristine clean window on Friday August 14th. The second week has a couple of decent windows on Tuesday 18th and Sunday 23rd, but it’s mostly big, windy, and rough. Pick your spot carefully.

Rusty.

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