Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming down the line at Spot x over the next couple of weeks. Water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. The main story is a solid run of southwest groundswell, but the wind will decide if we get good waves or a blown-out mess.

We’ve got a bit of a wait upfront. Monday the 27th sees a solid 10ft to 12ft southwest swell rolling in, with a 12-second period and decent energy, but a 12 mph cross-shore southerly wind makes it a no-go. The surface is choppy and messy, so we sit tight.

Tuesday the 28th is where it gets good. Morning is the standout of the first week. We’ve got a solid 10ft southwest swell, period at 14 seconds – proper groundswell with power. The combined energy is pumping. A light 6 mph cross-offshore breeze from the ESE keeps it clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The reef break is exposed to the swell, and with that long period, expect well-shaped, powerful lines with longer lulls. Afternoon goes onshore with a 6 mph WSW wind, turning it messy, so hit it early.

Wednesday the 29th drops to 7ft to 8ft southwest swell, period at 13 seconds, still strong energy. Morning is clean with a light 9 mph NE cross-off, though the wave comment says marginal – likely a tide issue. The afternoon is a beauty: 7ft swell, clean with a 9 mph NE cross-off, and marked as excellent for experienced surfers.

Thursday the 30th is another solid call. Morning has 6ft swell from the SW, 14-second period, and a clean 16 mph N cross-off. The afternoon is better – lighter 9 mph N breeze, 5ft swell, and clean face. Rated excellent for experienced surfers.

Then things fall apart. Friday the 31st gets blown out. Swell jumps back to 10ft to 12ft with a very long 16-second period, but the wind is a 22 to 28 mph cross-shore and cross-onshore mess. Poor, lumpy, and choppy. Saturday the 1st of August is worse – a massive 16ft southwest swell, 14-second period, but a fresh 22 mph cross-onshore wind. Lumpy and big. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 2nd of August brings the next gem. Morning: 12ft southwest swell, 14 seconds, and a gentle 9 mph offshore easterly. Clean and powerful. The afternoon is the absolute peak of this outlook. Swell drops to 10ft, but the wind goes glassy at 3 mph from the WNW. Perfect conditions, rated excellent. If you can get in the water Sunday afternoon, that’s your window.

Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th offer more clean surf. Monday has 8ft to 7ft SW swell with a moderate 12 mph offshore ENE breeze in the morning, and a light offshore in the afternoon. Both clean. Tuesday the 4th morning is a standout: 10ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, and a light offshore easterly. Excellent for experienced surfers. Afternoon goes onshore and loses quality.

From Wednesday the 5th onward, it’s a nightmare. Wednesday stays clean but scores drop. From Thursday the 6th through to the 11th August, it’s all poor. Swell sizes range from 12ft to a huge 23ft, with periods from 12 to 17 seconds, but winds are onshore, strong, or gale-force. Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are dangerous – 23ft swell with near gale and gale-force onshore winds, energy readings off the charts. Too big and dangerous, even for experts. The spot is blown out and dangerous. A blank run from the 6th onward is just how it goes here sometimes.

To sum it up: lock in Tuesday the 28th morning, Sunday the 2nd afternoon, and Tuesday the 4th morning. Those are the true standouts. The rest is a mix of clean but smaller options or blown-out chaos. Get it while you can.

Rusty.

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