Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break this down for you.

Right off the bat, we’ve got one spot to work with: Spot x. It’s a reef break, very consistent, exposed to the swell with the optimum direction coming from the west-southwest. This setup is gonna be picking up a lot of energy over the next couple of weeks.

The pattern here is pretty wild. There’s a huge pulse of swell building from September 10th, and it’s not gonna be an easy one. The first day, Thursday the 10th, we’re looking at a solid 6 ft WSW groundswell with a long period of 14 seconds, and the energy is already strong (1609). The morning has a cross-offish NE wind at 16 mph, so there’s some texture but still rideable. The afternoon cleans up nicely with light NNW breezes, and that swell hangs in at 6 ft with a 15-second period. This is the first standout window – clean, good energy, but the waves are pushing into intermediate territory.

Friday the 11th is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning has a strong 7 ft swell but the wind is up again (NNE 19 mph), making it a bit of a battle. The afternoon sees the swell jump to 8 ft with a very long 18-second period, but the wind swings north at 16 mph. For a reef like Spot x, that long-period groundswell (over 15 seconds) can mean super clean, lined-up waves but with long lulls between sets. It’s a solid option for experienced surfers.

Now, we hit a rough patch from Saturday the 12th all the way through to about September 23rd. That’s almost a week and a half of poor conditions. The swell stays huge – up to 12 ft – but the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, from west or west-northwest, or even southwest. This stretch is blown out and messy. The wave energy is extreme (over 5000 in the combined energy), but with onshore wind, Spot x is just a washing machine. On Saturday the 12th, it’s straight onshore and looking more like a kiteboarding zone than a surf spot. This run of bad days is a real letdown after that promising start.

There’s a glimmer of hope on Monday September 14th. The morning has a massive 12 ft WSW swell still, but the wind shifts to a light offshore from the ENE at only 6 mph. That’s glassy and clean for an expert-level session. The energy is absolutely pumping (5381), but at that height it’s big, powerful reef surf – not for the faint of heart.

We get another chance on Tuesday September 15th morning – the swell drops a touch to 10 ft but the wind is light cross-shore from the SSE. It’s not perfect, but it’s a lot cleaner than the week prior. Then we finally see the swell settle down by the morning of Tuesday September 24th – 6 ft SW groundswell with a cross-offshore NNE breeze at 9 mph. That’s a solid, clean, intermediate-friendly window after the long drought.

The standout in the whole outlook is the afternoon of September 10th and the morning of September 14th. The 10th offers the first real quality with clean lines, and the 14th is for the big-wave crew only.

Water temp is not specified in the data for Spot x, so I can’t tell you if it’s warmer or cooler than usual right now.

The waves are there, but the wind is the enemy for most of this run. Hang tight for that Monday the 14th if you’re an expert, or the tail end of the month for something more manageable.

Rusty.

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