Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your coffee, let’s see what’s cooking.

First things first, we’ve only got one spot on the radar here: Spot x. It’s a reef break, very consistent, exposed to the swell, and likes it from the WSW. Water temp is sitting at 66.4° with an anomaly of just 1.4°, so pretty much bang on average for this time of year – nothing freaky there.

Alright, so we’re looking at a run that starts this Saturday afternoon, the 11th of July. The ocean is already grumbling with a solid 9.8ft swell pumping in from the SW, period of 13 seconds, and it’s packing some serious energy (3208). But here’s the rub – the wind is a cross-shore from the south at 9 mph, creating a bit of chop. It’s surfable for the intermediate crew, but it’s going to be a bit lumpy.

Sunday the 12th sees the swell actually building. Morning has 9.8ft SW, bumping up in period to 14 seconds, but that cross-onshore wind from the SSW at 12 mph is making it choppy and messy. Not our day. The afternoon pushes up to 11.5ft with a 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell territory – but still cross-onshore and fairly choppy. It’s got power (8192) but it’s not clean.

Monday the 13th stays similar: 11.5ft SW, long 16-second intervals, but the wind stays cross-onshore, light though. Still, that persistent chop is going to make it a battle.

Now here’s where we get a little glimmer. Tuesday morning the 14th is a standout. Swell is still a meaty 9.8ft from the SW, 15-second period, and the wind switches to a light offshore from the NE at 6 mph. Clean conditions. The energy is still solid (3762). This is your window for experienced surfers – it’s big, it’s powerful, and it’s clean. The afternoon stays clean with even lighter offshore breeze. This is easily the best session of the first week.

Wednesday the 15th goes downhill fast. Winds crank up from the north, hitting 22 mph in the morning and swinging cross-on in the arvo. Swell drops a bit, but the wind just ruins it. The afternoon scores a zero in quality – just don’t bother.

Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are write-offs. Strong winds from the NW and W, rain, lumpy, messy, onshore. The swell stays around 7.5ft to 9.8ft but the conditions are terrible. This is kite-surfing weather, not paddle surfing.

Saturday the 18th of July – we get a massive spike. 16.4ft from the WSW, 17-second period, energy off the charts (16068). That is a serious ocean. The wind is from the SW at 28 mph and onshore in the morning, but even if it was glass, that size is beyond expert level. It’s too big for this break. Leave it alone.

Then we get a potential redemption. Sunday the 19th – glassy. Zero wind in the morning, some clouds, and a still hefty 11.5ft SW swell with a 14-second period. This is exceptional for experts – clean, powerful, and just under that 13ft threshold. The afternoon stays glassy with light WSW airs. This is the other standout for experienced surfers who can handle big, clean reef waves.

Into the second week, we’ve got a stretch from Monday the 20th to Wednesday the 22nd with clean to glassy conditions in the mornings, and swells ranging from 7.2ft to 11.5ft. Energy is moderate to strong. Monday morning the 20th is a nice 7.2ft SSW swell with a clean cross-offshore breeze – that’s a very user-friendly size for intermediates. Tuesday morning the 21st also looks clean with a 9.8ft SW.

Thursday the 23rd of July brings another solid pulse: 13.1ft SW, 17-second period, clean morning wind from the north – that’s a lot of power (9736), but it’s a big day for experts only.

The run then fades from Friday the 24th right through to Saturday the 26th. Onshore winds from the SW to S, strong, messy, and the swell drops to 7.5ft-9.8ft but the quality is zero. That’s a gap of a few days with nothing worth paddling out for. The forecast then tries to pick up again on Sunday the 26th with a 9.8ft to 11.5ft swell, but the wind is cross to cross-onshore again – marginal.

So if I’m calling it: the real standout sessions are Tuesday the 14th of July (clean, offshore, solid swell) and Sunday the 19th of July (glassy, big, for the experts). The second week’s highlights are the clean mornings of Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st – they’re promising, but don’t book the trip yet, it’s further out and less certain. Crowds are *sometimes* a thing here, so on those clean days, expect company.

That’s the story from where I

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