Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up at Spot x. It’s a reef break, intermediate level, and the water is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than what we’d usually expect this time of year.

Right off the bat, this forecast is a tale of two extremes. We’ve got a serious run of solid, powerful swell, but the wind is going to be a problem for a lot of it. The first several days are a write-off for clean waves. We’re looking at a big, powerful SW groundswell from the 2nd to the 6th, with wave heights bouncing between 12 ft and 16 ft and a long period up to 15 seconds. The energy is massive, with readings in the thousands, but it’s all blown out by strong cross-onshore winds. Thursday the 3rd is especially nasty, with fresh to strong breezes making a mess of things. Friday the 4th afternoon finally shows some promise - the wind drops to a gentle onshore breeze, and the swell is still a solid 16 ft from the WSW, but the conditions are still only marginal. Saturday the 5th is a complete disaster with near gale-force winds.

Things start to look up on Monday the 7th morning. The swell drops to a more manageable 12 ft, but the period is a very long 16 seconds. The wind is a light cross-onshore, giving us small wind ripples. It’s still not perfect, but you can get out there. The standout window, though, is Tuesday the 8th. The morning session is the one to circle. We get a clean 13 ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period, and the wind swings light offshore from the ESE. That’s going to produce exceptional conditions for those who can handle the size. The energy is strong. After that, the wind gets messy again for a few days.

There’s a bit of a lull after that, with smaller 8 ft to 10 ft swell but mostly cross or cross-onshore winds through to the 14th. Nothing special to write home about.

Then, we’ve got a massive pulse arriving on the 15th of September. The swell is predicted to be huge – 25 ft to 26 ft from the WSW with monstrous energy. The wind is favorable, but it’s simply too big for this break, even for experts. That’s a no-go.

The final, and maybe the best, shot is on Thursday the 17th of September. The swell drops to a solid 13 ft, still with that very long 17-second period from the WSW. But the kicker is the wind: it’s glassy in the morning. Dead calm. That’s an exceptional call for expert surfers, with the energy still very strong. It’s a long way out, so don’t hold me to it, but if that window holds, it will be special.

To sum it up: Tuesday the 8th morning is the solid, reliable pick for experienced surfers. Thursday the 17th morning is the long-range promise of perfection, if you can wait that long.

- Rusty

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