Spot x Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next 16 days for Spot x. This is a reef break that’s very consistent and exposed to the swell, so it’s always got a pulse. Right now, the water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on.

The first few days are a write-off for a good paddle. Through Wednesday and into Thursday morning, we’ve got a solid 7 ft to 8 ft SW swell running, but the wind is a howling 25 mph from the north. That’s a strong breeze making things messy. Not worth suiting up.

Then things get interesting. Thursday morning, the 16th of July, is your first real window. We’ve got an 12 ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, pushing a fat 4571 (moderate to strong energy) into the reef. The wind is glassy, just 3 mph from the SW. This is clean, powerful surf, but at 12 ft, it’s on the big side – this is for the experienced crew only. The tide or something might be a little tricky, but the conditions are excellent for those who can handle it. Thursday afternoon drops a bit to 10 ft with a cross-shore wind, still good but not as pristine.

After that, the wind goes ugly. Friday through to Tuesday the 21st is a washout. We’re looking at 10 ft to 18 ft of swell, but the wind is relentless onshore or cross-onshore, often strong. The energy is huge – hitting 11767 (very strong) on Saturday – but with a howling onshore wind, it’s just a churned-up mess. Not a surfer’s wave. If you’re into kiting, that Saturday setup might be your go, but for a paddle, save your energy.

The next standout is a week away, on Wednesday the 22nd of July. The morning looks exceptional. We’ve got an 12 ft SW swell with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is a healthy 5202 (strong). The wind is a light 6 mph from the southeast, which is cross-off at this break. That means clean, lined-up waves. This is a big swell, so it’s still for the experts, but the quality is superb. The afternoon is a bit bigger at 13 ft, but the wind turns slightly cross-on, so the morning is the clear pick.

The following Thursday and Friday, the 23rd and 24th, offer more good, clean conditions with cross-off winds and 10 ft to 7 ft SW swells. The energy is still decent, and the wind stays favourable. The 24th of July afternoon looks particularly sweet with a gentle offshore breeze and clean 7 ft waves.

The last week of the month sees the swell drop off. The 26th of July has a tiny 3 ft pulse, but it’s glassy with a 19-second period. That’s very long period groundswell, which on a reef can be a bit tricky, but when it’s that clean and small, it’s a fantastic longboard day. The 27th and 28th have some waist-to-chest high swell but with cross-off winds, keeping it rideable. The very end of the period, the 30th of July, has a massive 13 ft swell from the west with a 16-second period, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy. That’s one to watch but not a guarantee.

The best bet is Thursday morning, the 16th of July, for the glassy, powerful 12 ft groundswell, or Wednesday morning, the 22nd of July, for the super clean, big 12 ft swell with that perfect cross-off wind. The 22nd might just edge it out for overall quality.

Rusty.

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