Cape Northumberland Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s get into what’s coming up for Cape Northumberland.

Look, we’ve got a solid run of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be the story for a lot of it. The first week is a bit of a mixed bag, with some real quality windows for the experienced crew, then a few days where it gets messy, before a couple of standout sessions in the second week that are worth circling on the calendar. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The best bet for the first few days is Sunday the 16th. Sunday morning is looking clean with a light offshore breeze from the ENE at 6 mph, and a solid 8 ft SW groundswell rolling in at 14 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 2927, so there’s plenty of push. It’s a powerful reef wave here, so this is one for the advanced crew only. Crowds are possible, but with that size and the reef, it’ll thin out. Sunday afternoon sees the wind swing SE and pick up to 19 mph, turning it cross-offshore, but it stays clean. Still good, but the morning is the pick.

Monday the 17th is another cracker for the experienced. The morning session has a light offshore breeze again, 9 mph from the ENE, with a 8 ft SW groundswell that has stretched out to a very long 16-second period. The energy is up to 3243. That long period means the waves will have real shape and power, but it can also close out a bit if you’re not on the right part of the reef. Still, for the guys who know the line-up, it’s going to be pumping. The afternoon is a step down with a cross-offshore breeze, but still clean and rideable.

Tuesday the 18th sees the wind get stronger from the NE at 19 mph, making it cross-offshore, but the swell is dropping to 7 ft. It’s still got a long period of 17 seconds, but the energy is down to 2426. The quality is only marginal. By Wednesday the 19th, the wind is howling from the NNE at 25 mph, with a messy cross-offshore breeze and the swell dropping to 4 ft. The energy is weak at 674. It’s a write-off. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are no better – the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is either small or way too big. Friday afternoon actually has a massive 13 ft SW swell with a 17-second period and energy hitting 18007, but it’s blowing onshore at 25 mph from the WSW. That’s just a washing machine, and it’s way too big for this break anyway. The whole stretch from Wednesday the 19th through to the 25th is a write-off, with only a few marginal windows.

Now, the real standouts come in the second week. Friday the 28th is looking like the best day of the whole run. The afternoon session has a 10 ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period, and the wind is a light offshore from the north at just 6 mph. The energy is strong at 7102, and the conditions are clean. This is exceptional surf for expert surfers. The swell direction is a touch more west than the optimum SW, but with that light offshore wind and that long period, it’s going to be a ripper. Crowds are possible, but it’s a reef, so it’s self-selecting.

Monday the 31st is another one to circle. The morning session has a 8 ft SW groundswell with an 18-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The wind is glassy, dead calm from the ENE. Energy is strong at 4175. That’s about as clean as it gets. For the experienced surfer, this is a proper session. The long period will mean the waves are fat and powerful, with long waits between sets, but the paddle-out will be easy between sets.

So, if you’re an experienced surfer, the standouts are Monday the 17th morning, Friday the 28th afternoon, and Monday the 31st morning. The 31st is the true blue-ribbon session with glassy conditions and a solid SW groundswell.

Rusty.

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