Guethary - Les Alcyons/Avalanche Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks look pretty grim for getting wet at Guethary - Les Alcyons/Avalanche. The swell that’s hanging around for the next week or so is tiny, short-period leftovers, and the wind is mostly cross or onshore, chopping up whatever’s there. That water temp is a real standout though – at 77°, it’s running a massive 5° warmer than normal for this time of year, so the bathtub feeling will be the only saving grace. It’s going to be a real grind with barely anything surfable.

We’re looking at a solid 10-day stretch of nothing to get excited about. Through the 17th to the 19th, you’ve got what’s basically knee-high slop with weak energy – the combined energy is down between 12 and 64, so even the glassy morning conditions can’t make something out of nothing. There’s a brief uptick on the 20th (Thursday) with a little more push, but it’s still small and disorganized. The 21st sees a touch more size, but it’s all short-period onshore junk, so it’s a mess. The 22nd has a clean cross-offshore breeze but almost no swell left, and from the 23rd to the 26th it’s back to dribble, with energy readings as low as 20 to 39. This is a proper drought.

Then, on Thursday the 27th, the pattern finally shifts. It’s still not massive, but it’s the best on offer. Expect a jump to 5ft on the morning with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a solid 379. The wind is light and offshore from the ESE, so the reef will be clean and lined up. The afternoon drops a touch to 5ft but stays clean. This is the window to sneak out, but it’s really a one-day swell.

After that, the bottom falls out for surf quality. A big, powerful NW groundswell rolls in on the 28th and 29th, with the potential for 10ft on the 29th and a massive combined energy reading of 3527. But it’s a total washout. The wind swings hard onshore – WNW at 15-22 mph – and the whole place will be blown out, lumpy, and messy. The swell is way too big and the wind is all wrong. This setup looks far more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers. It’s maxed out, dangerous, and ugly.

So, to keep it real: there’s nothing on the menu until the morning of the 27th. It’s a long wait, but that one clean window is worth keeping an eye on. Long-term that late August swell is promising, but forecasts that far out are always a gamble. Don’t hold your breath for that last weekend, though – with wind that strong, it’s not our day.

Rusty out.

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