The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cooking for The Three Bears. We’ve got a solid window of opportunity, but you’ll have to be patient and pick your moments.

Overall Pattern

The coming week is a bit of a write-off for clean waves. We’ve got a huge, powerful swell filling in, but it’s coming with some nasty wind. The best windows are actually a full week away, starting around August 12th. That’s where the real quality is hiding. Water temp is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might get away with a thinner wetsuit or even a spring suit for the dawn patrol.

The Gritty Start

The next few days are rough. A massive WSW groundswell is hammering the coast. We’re talking about a combined swell energy of 6037 on Wednesday morning, building to over 15,000 by Saturday afternoon. That’s a lot of juice. But the wind is a mess – cross-onshore, onshore, gusting up to 31 mph. It’s blown out, lumpy, and just not worth paddling out for. On Saturday, the swell is predicted to be 16 ft to 18 ft. That’s far too big for anyone but the most experienced, and even then, the wind is a dealbreaker. This stretch is more suited for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly.

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

After a long, dicey week, things flip on Wednesday, August 12th. The swell drops to a manageable 10 ft from the WSW, and the real story is the wind. A light NNE breeze at 6 mph, cross-offshore, will clean things right up. The combined swell energy is still a moderate 3725, but with those conditions, it’s going to be a different world. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The bears are exposed to the swell, so the long-period groundswell (15-16 seconds) will push in with real power.

The Best on Offer

The standout window is the morning of Thursday, August 13th. We’ve got a 10 ft SW groundswell with a very long period of 17 seconds, and the wind is clean and cross-offshore from the ENE at 6 mph. The combined energy is 5302, and the conditions are described as exceptional for expert surfers. This is the one to circle in your calendar. It’s still a week and a half out, so treat it as a promising lead, but this is the top pick.

The Tail End

The quality holds through the 14th and 15th with smaller 8 ft to 7 ft swell and cleaner conditions, but the wind starts to shift around. By August 18th, we get another nice morning with a 10 ft WSW groundswell, a light offshore breeze from the ENE at 9 mph, and clean conditions. The catch is the swell period is 16 seconds, which is long, meaning it might break a bit straight at a beach break, but at a reef like The Three Bears, it should be excellent.

The Bad News

After that, from the 17th and through the 19th and 20th, the wind machine turns back on. Strong onshore, near gale-force winds, and rain make for a blown-out mess. The swell is still there, but it’s not worth it.

The Summary

If you’re an expert surfer, the mornings of the 12th, 13th, and 14th are your target. The 13th is the standout with that extra-long period and clean wind. If you’re a beginner, you’ll want to sit this forecast out entirely. The swell never drops below 7 ft, and even the smaller days come with a tricky wind.

Rusty.

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