The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at the next two weeks for The Three Bears. It’s a real mixed picture: a big pulse of swell mid-week, then a lot of wind to deal with. The true standout is a short window over the weekend where the stars align.

We start Tuesday morning with some light rain and a stiff 45 km/h wind out of the north-northwest, making a mess of a 4ft swell. Not worth paddling. That afternoon the wind stays strong and the swell jumps to 8ft, but it’s still a cross-onshore mess. Wednesday morning brings a much bigger 13ft groundswell with a very long 18-second period, but the wind is crossing from the south at 12 mph, creating a cross-chop. It’s big and powerful, but only marginal. By Wednesday afternoon the wind shifts cross-offshore from the south at 19 mph, and the 13ft swell holds with a 17-second period. It’s clean, but this is heavy stuff – over 8ft, so experts only at this reef. The combined energy is ripping at 9466, a strong reading.

Thursday stays clean with cross-off winds, but the swell drops to 10ft and then 8ft through the day. The wind is up to 22 mph though, putting a fresh breeze on it and pushing quality down. Friday fades further with 5ft to 5ft swell, still clean but the energy has dropped into the hundreds (773). It’s weak.

Here’s your best bet. Saturday morning stays clean with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is only 4ft. However, Saturday afternoon sees the wind drop to a light 6 mph from the south-southeast, the sky clears, and a nice 7ft groundswell, with an 18-second period, lines up. The water temp is about 65°, which is normal for this time of year. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The combined energy is a strong 2800. Sunday morning is another beauty – clear skies, light offshore northeast breeze at 6 mph, and a 8ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period. The energy reads a strong 2682. This is your weekend to get out there. The swell direction is WSW and the optimum here is SW, so it’s slightly off the ideal, but clean waves over 7ft are a real treat.

The start of the next week gets messy. Monday morning has a glassy 6ft swell with a 17-second period from a light offshore WNW wind, but the wind state is unknown, so treat it as a maybe. That afternoon the wind swings onshore and it turns choppy. Tuesday the 1st of September shows another nice-looking morning with a clean 7ft swell and a 15-second period, with a light offshore NNE breeze. That’s a solid option, and the long period on this reef is actually a good thing.

From that Tuesday afternoon onward, the outlook trends downhill fast. A lot of onshore wind, building to gale force by the 6th of September with 13ft swells and 37 mph winds – completely blown out. Early morning on the 8th of September offers a brief moment of hope: a 6ft swell with a light offshore ESE wind and clean conditions. The 9th of September morning also looks decent with a small 4ft, 16-second groundswell and a clean cross-off breeze. But after that, the wind and swell remain messy and uncooperative for the rest of the window.

To sum it up: the weekend of the 29th and 30th of August is your prime time, with Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning being the clear standouts. The first week of September has a couple of fleeting clean windows, but nothing that rivals that weekend.

Catch you out there,
Rusty

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