The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking like a bit of a mixed bag around The Three Bears (Big Island). We’ve got some serious size coming, but the wind and conditions are going to be the big story. Don't get too excited about the first few days, it's going to be a bit of a grind.

Right off the bat, from Friday the 7th through the weekend, we’ve got a big, powerful WSW groundswell pushing in. We’re talking 12ft to 18ft of solid, long-period swell. The energy is through the roof, with combined energy values in the thousands – that’s a lot of water moving. But the wind is going to be the enemy here. It’s onshore and howling, 19 to 31 mph, and it’s just going to be blown out and messy. This is not our time. And honestly, with that size, it’s getting into the territory where only the most experienced crew would even be looking at it. This setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The start of next week, Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th, doesn't offer much relief. The swell stays big, 15ft to 16ft, and the wind is still strong and cross-onshore. It’s going to be lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. Even though there’s a ton of energy in the water, it’s not going to be organized. The forecast notes say the wind and tide might be favorable, but the swell is just too big for this break. We’ll have to sit this one out.

Then we get a bit of a breather. Wednesday the 12th the swell backs down to a more manageable 10ft, but the wind is still on it, so it stays bumpy. Thursday the 13th things start to look a little more interesting. The swell drops to 8-10ft and the wind eases right off. It’s still a bit cross-onshore in the morning, but by the afternoon it’s just a light breeze. The energy is moderate, and the long period (16-17 seconds) means there’s some good push behind it. It’s a step in the right direction.

Now, here’s where it starts to get good. Friday the 14th is looking like the first real standout. The swell is a clean 8ft from the WSW, and we finally get some offshore/cross-offshore wind from the NE. It’s a light breeze, so the surface is going to be clean. The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the day to get out there. It’s not huge, but it’s got power and the wind is right. This is a solid option.

Saturday the 15th is a bit of a drop-off. The swell drops to 6ft, the period drops, and the wind goes a bit cross-shore. It’s surfable but not special. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th the wind goes back onshore and the swell bumps back up to 10-12ft. It’s going to be choppy and lumpy again. We’re back to the poor conditions.

The middle of next week, Tuesday the 18th, we see a bit of a rebound. The swell is 12ft and the wind is light, but it’s a bit cross-shore. It’s workable, but not perfect.

Then we get to the real gem of this whole forecast. Wednesday the 19th, early in the morning. The wind is set to go completely glassy – zero wind. The swell is a consistent 12ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period. The conditions are called "exceptional" for expert surfers. This is the one. This is the day you set your alarm for. The energy is strong, the waves will have real power, and with the glassy surface, it’s going to be as good as it gets. This is the standout of the entire window.

After that, the end of the week and into the next weekend, it settles down. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st see the swell ease to 8ft and then 6ft. The wind is more favorable, with some cross-offshore and clean conditions. It’s a nice way to finish the period, but the size is backing off. The long period on Saturday the 22nd with a smaller 5ft swell is a sign that the energy is really fading out.

So, to sum it up: the first half of this forecast is a write-off due to size and wind. Your windows are Friday the 14th, and the big one – that glassy Wednesday morning on the 19th. That’s the one to chase. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s looking promising.

Rusty

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