The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's get into it. We’ve got a wild ride ahead for The Three Bears, so let’s cut through the noise and find the windows.

The first few days are a bit of a mixed bag. Friday afternoon kicks things off but the wind is howling onshore from the west at 22 mph with storm clouds about. The water’s running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 67°F, and there’s plenty of energy in the water, but it’s going to be messy.

Saturday morning cleans up a little – the wind drops and swings to the south, but it's still cross-shore, making things a bit lumpy. The swell is a solid 8ft from the WSW with a 15-second period. Saturday afternoon looks better, with the wind turning cross-offshore, and the swell bumps up to 10ft. This is when the Three Bears starts to show its teeth, with clean conditions. This is a good option for experienced surfers.

Sunday is the call. The morning has clean conditions with a cross-offshore breeze, and a solid 8ft of WSW swell. But the standout is Sunday afternoon. The wind drops to a light 3 mph cross-offshore, the sky is clear, and you’ve got 7ft of clean, lined-up swell with a 13-second period. It’s not the biggest, but it’ll be the cleanest surf we’ve seen. The Bears is a reef, so this long-period swell will wrap in nicely. This is the one to circle.

Monday continues the trend, with light offshore winds in the morning and glassy conditions in the afternoon. The swell drops to 5ft, but it’s clean with a long 15-16 second period. This is a great window for beginners or anyone wanting an easy session.

Then the wheels fall off. Tuesday sees the wind swing onshore from the southwest at 22 mph, and the swell jumps back up to 8ft. It’s a washing machine. Wednesday morning has a bigger 12ft swell, but the wind is cross-shore and messy. It’s a no-go.

Thursday and Friday are a washout. Strong winds, rain, and building swell. By Friday, we’re looking at 13ft+ and howling onshore winds. Forget it.

The weekend is when things get serious. Saturday sees the swell pump up to 20ft, but with a near-gale cross-onshore wind, it’s a complete mess. Sunday is even bigger, with 20ft+ of WSW swell and a period stretching out to 18 seconds. This is a colossal amount of energy – we’re talking serious, serious power. The problem is the wind is still onshore, and this swell is way too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s likely to be a close-out. If you’re a kitesurfer, this might be your playground, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass.

The following Monday, the 10th of August, things start to settle. The wind turns cross-offshore from the southeast, and the swell eases to a still-chunky 10ft. It’s clean and powerful – a much better prospect. After the chaos of the weekend, this will feel like a gift.

After that, it fades. Tuesday the 11th has some rideable 7ft swell, but the wind is up and it’s messy. From the 12th onwards, it’s a story of more big, raw, and blown-out surf. The 14th and 15th see another massive pulse of 20-21ft swell, with strong onshore winds. This is not for surfing.

So, here’s the bottom line. The standout is Sunday afternoon, August 3rd – small, clean, and perfect for the reef. The other real highlight is Monday morning, August 10th – a powerful, clean 10ft swell after all the wind. Everything else in this 16-day window is either too small, too windy, or too big. There’s a stretch from the 5th to the 9th where we’re just sitting it out. Stay patient, and keep an eye on that second Monday.

Rusty out.

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