The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for The Three Bears stretch.

Right off the bat, I gotta say, this ain't shaping up to be a week for the casual paddle-out. The first week is a write-off for any kind of decent surf. We're talking solid, powerful swell pouring in, but the wind is just relentless. The water is sitting at 67°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won't be feeling it with that gale-force cross-onshore wind. Forget about it.

From Saturday the 8th right through to the middle of the week, it's a mess. The swell is massive, a solid 18ft of WSW groundswell, with a period of 15-16 seconds, which is proper long-period energy. The combined energy is off the charts—12443 and 23296 —but it's all for nothing. The wind is a near gale, cross-onshore, just blowing the crap out of everything. On Sunday the 9th, the swell drops to 12ft, but the wind is still cross-onshore and choppy. It's the same story Monday and Tuesday, with strong winds and big, lumpy surf. The waves are just too big and too messy for any kind of fun.

There's a little glimmer on Thursday the 14th. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft from the WSW, with a 16-second period. The wind finally swings around to an ENE cross-offshore, described as "clean." That's for the experienced crew only, though. The waves are still going to have some serious energy (combined energy of 3156). It's an excellent window for the experts, but anyone else should stay on the beach. The same goes for Friday morning, with a 8ft WSW swell and a light NNE breeze. It's clean, but make no mistake, it's still a powerful, long-period swell that's going to be tricky.

The real standout, the one that's got me a little excited, is Wednesday the 19th. This is a long way off, so take it with a pinch of salt, but the numbers are screaming. We're looking at a 16ft WSW groundswell with a 17-second period—that's about as long as it gets. The combined energy is a massive 14179. The wind is a gentle NNE cross-offshore, so the surface should be clean. The forecast is calling it "exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers." This is a reef break that's exposed to the SW swell, and with a 17-second period, it's going to be a heavy, grinding wave. This is not a day for beginners. This is a day for the big dogs only. The afternoon might get a little chopped with a cross-shore wind, but the morning window is the one to watch.

So, to sum it up: the first week and a half is a complete write-off. The sweet spot is the morning of the 19th of August, which looks like a serious, expert-only session. Keep an eye on the 14th and 15th for cleaner, but still powerful, surf for the more experienced.

Rusty.

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