The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and look at the next couple of weeks for The Three Bears.

The opening days are a bit of a tease. We’ve got swell, but the wind is all over the shop, and the quality just isn’t there for a proper paddle. The good news is, there’s a solid window of clean surf early next week that looks well worth your time. After that, things get big and wild, so pick your moments.

Thursday the 10th kicks off with a clean 5ft WSW swell, but a 25 km/h NE cross-off wind is making things a little lumpy. The afternoon glass-off is the real deal though – dead calm, and the same 5ft swell with a 15-second period. That’s when the reef will be looking its best. The water’s sitting at 64°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year.

Friday the 11th is a write-off for quality. The swell bumps up to 5ft, but a fresh 30 km/h NNE breeze in the morning and a cross-shore chop in the afternoon will mess it up. The period jumps to 18 seconds, but it’s hard to enjoy a clean wave when it’s that choppy.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th? Forget it. The onshore W wind is going to be howling, and the swell jumps to 8ft. It’s going to be a mess – that’s more of a washing machine than a surfable wave. This is when the conditions are better for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers.

Now, Monday the 14th is where it comes alive. The wind swings to a light 15 km/h offshore E, and that 8ft WSW swell, with a 14-second period, is going to be absolutely firing. The energy is moderate at 2673, but it will be clean and powerful. This is the standout of the run so far. If you can only surf one day, this is it.

Tuesday the 15th is another cracker. We’ve still got some size at 8ft, the swell direction is still WSW, and the wind is light and cross-off from the SSE at 10 km/h. It’s going to be glassy and clean. Another day of excellent conditions.

Wednesday the 16th sees the swell drop a touch to 6ft, but the wind goes a bit light and cross-shore. It’s still surfable, but not as perfect as the two days prior. Thursday the 17th is similar, with the period dropping a bit, making it a little less organised, but still with a chance.

Friday the 18th is when the wheels fall off. A near gale from the NW at 50 km/h swings in with rain and a massive 13ft cross-onshore swell. That’s a flat-out no. The weekend after that is just big, raw, and blown-out – not for the faint-hearted. 15ft of west swell with onshore winds is a full-on ocean.

But hang in there. Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st are the long-range highlights. The swell is still a solid 10ft, but the wind goes offshore and clean again. These are the ones to circle on the calendar. They’re a week out, so treat them as promising but not locked in. If the wind holds, these will be the biggest, cleanest waves of the entire period.

After that, it starts to fade back down, with the wind becoming more onshore and the swell dropping below 7ft. Looks like a classic early autumn run – a bit of everything, but with two stand-out windows of quality surfing.

Rusty

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