The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve only got one spot lighting up in the 16-day window, and that’s The Three Bears. This is a reef setup, so it handles the bigger swells better than a beach break would. It’s a consistent spot, which is good news, and it’s exposed to the SW, which is exactly where the optimum swell is coming from. Perfect match.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report.

The run kicks off on Thursday, 23 July with a solid 5.6 ft SW swell (14-second period – that’s a proper groundswell) and a combined energy of 1154 – that’s moderate energy. The wind is a cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph, keeping things clean. It’s a 2/5 rating for difficulty, so it’s a beginner-friendly wave, but with that size and period, it’ll be a bit much for total rookies. The real standout is Thursday afternoon: the wind drops to glassy, dead calm, with the swell still a clean 5.2 ft from the SW and 918 energy. The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s your window. The wind is a major positive – glassy conditions are rare gold.

Friday, 24 July drops off to a smaller 3.6 ft SW swell. The wind is a cross-off both morning and afternoon, producing clean surf. The energy is down around 428-451. It’s a fun, mellow day for the smaller-wave crew.

Saturday, 25 July is a write-off. The swell shifts to WSW at 4.6 ft, but the wind is a messy cross-shore and cross-on, with 15-16 mph winds. The surf quality is poor. Don’t bother.

Sunday, 26 July brings a big jump. The swell hits 11.5 ft from the WSW. That’s expert territory. The energy is massive – 3011 in the morning and a whopping 7090 in the afternoon. The wind is a strong cross-off (25 mph), so it’s clean, but that size and a period of 11-13 seconds will be a handful. The report says “marginal.” This is for experienced surfers only, and on a reef, it’ll be heavy.

Monday, 27 July is the next standout. The swell drops to a more manageable 7.2 ft in the morning (WSW, 12 seconds, 1426 energy), with a clean cross-off. The Monday afternoon is a gem: 4.9 ft from the WSW with a 15-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is 1496, and the wind is only a 3 mph cross-off from the SSE. The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That long period will make the waves powerful and lined up, perfect for a reef. The wind is near glassy, making it clean. This is your second-best call in the whole forecast.

The rest of the week into early August is a mixed bag. Tuesday, 28 July has consistent 5.6-5.9 ft SW/WSW swell with clean cross-off winds, but the quality is only marginal. Wednesday, 29 July turns ugly with a cross-on wind and lumpy conditions. Thursday, 30 July morning is clean with a smaller 3.3 ft WSW swell, but the Thursday afternoon is a sleeper: 4.9 ft from the WSW with an 18-second period (very long period groundswell) and a moderate offshore wind. The energy is 1558. The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That offshore wind will groom the reef perfectly. That’s a big call, but it’s there.

Friday, 31 July through the first weekend of August gets wild. Swells are 8.2 ft to 11.5 ft, with strong winds (22-25 mph). The energy readings are insane – 3226, 5094, 6159 – that’s very strong wave energy. But the wind is either cross-off, cross, or onshore, and the quality is “marginal” or “poor.” For the most part, this is big, messy, and dangerous. Only experienced chargers should look at it, and even then, the wind is a problem.

From Monday, 3 August onward, the wind swings onshore (W/SW) and the swell drops to 4.3 ft to 7.5 ft, but it’s all “poor surf conditions” with onshore winds. The energy is still moderate to strong (869 to 2648), but the wind is ruining it. The period gets long again (16-19 seconds) on the 4th and 5th, but the wind is onshore, so it’s a mess.

The best of the best is Thursday, 23 July afternoon (glassy, clean, 5.2 ft SW) and Monday, 27 July afternoon (near glassy, long period, 4.9 ft WSW). The Thursday, 30 July

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