The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for The Three Bears. This is a reef break, consistent, and it’s exposed to a SW swell. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing wild.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but it’s not a total washout. The first real chance to get in the water comes on Thursday the 30th. The morning is looking clean with a 4ft swell from the WSW, period around 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, nice and long, meaning it’ll push through with some real shape. The offshore wind is a moderate breeze, and the energy is moderate (938). It’s a beginner-friendly wave size, but the long period might make it a little tricky for the absolute newbies. The afternoon cleans up with a light breeze and a 4ft swell, but it goes a bit cross-shore. Still, a solid session for a Thursday.

Friday the 31st is a write-off. That 7ft to 8ft swell gets smashed by a fresh onshore wind. It’s lumpy, messy, and there’s even a risk of thunderstorms. Don’t even bother.

Saturday the 1st of August is a big step up. Morning starts with an 8ft swell from the WSW, but it’s clean with a cross-off wind. The energy is getting strong (2917). By the afternoon, it’s a 10ft swell with gentle offshore winds, and the energy is kicking up to 3901. That’s getting big. For a beginner reef, 10ft is a handful, so this is more for the experienced crew. The conditions are clean, but it’s a serious wave.

Sunday the 2nd is the hidden gem of the first week. The swell drops to a still-chunky 7ft, but the wind goes completely glassy in the afternoon. Zero wind. That’s a major positive. The energy is still strong (1427), and the period is a solid 13 seconds. This is the one to circle. Clean, glassy conditions on a good-sized swell. It’ll be a bit of a lineup, but that clarity is magic.

Monday the 3rd backs off a bit. The morning is clean with a 5ft swell, but the energy drops to moderate (911). It’s a good, fun wave for the intermediate surfer, but not the standout of the week.

Now, hold on to your board. Tuesday the 4th of August is where it gets real. The morning brings a 10ft swell from the WSW with a very long 17-second period. The energy is huge (4660). The wind is light and offshore. This is big, powerful, and clean. This is for experts only. The paddle out might be easier with those long gaps between sets, but the wave size is serious. Wednesday the 5th is similar, with an 8ft swell and another 16-second period, also clean and light. The energy is huge (3693). Another day for the chargers.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Thursday the 6th, but it’s still 10ft with a cross-shore wind. Then Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are completely blown out. Strong winds, rain, and a massive 15ft swell on Saturday. That’s a kitesurfing show, not a paddle session. The wind is a near gale. Leave the boards at home.

The second week starts to get interesting again. Sunday the 9th is clean with a 8ft swell, and the wind is offshore. A solid, clean session. Monday the 10th is bigger, with a 13ft to 15ft swell, but the wind is howling onshore, making it a messy, high-energy beast. Not good.

Then, the big one. Tuesday the 11th of August. This is a major standout. The morning has a 13ft swell from the WSW with a 17-second period and a moderate offshore breeze. The energy is enormous (9569). The afternoon is even better: 13ft, 18-second period, and a gentle offshore wind. The energy is absolutely pumping (15756). The forecast warns it might be too big for this break, which tells you everything. This is a world-class, expert-only session if you can handle the power and size. The swell direction is spot-on for the optimum.

Wednesday the 12th stays massive, 16ft with a 19-second period, but the wind goes cross-shore, making it lumpy. The energy is off the charts (17128 to 31435), but the wind ruins it. Then Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are back to poor onshore winds and messy conditions.

So, the best on offer is hands-down Tuesday the 11th of August. The combination of size, long period, offshore wind, and clean conditions is a once-in-a-forecast window for the experts. The second best is Sunday the 2nd of August for that glassy, clean, chunky swell that’s more manageable. The long gaps between sets on the big days will help with the paddle, but don’t be fooled – that’s a heavy ocean.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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