The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s in store for The Three Bears over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a classic reef set-up here that’s consistent, exposed to the south-west swell, and it’s a beginner-friendly wave when it’s small. Right now, the water temp is sitting at 65°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

The opening days are a bit of a mixed bag, but it’s not a total write-off. Saturday the 15th sees some clean 7 ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period and a moderate cross-off breeze. The combined energy is a healthy 1534, so there’s some push behind it. The afternoon drops a touch to 6 ft, but the wind goes a bit cross-shore, getting a little lumpy. It’s surfable, but not the best of the run.

Sunday the 16th brings a bit more size, 7 ft to 8 ft, but a fresh breeze makes things messy, especially in the afternoon. The scores are low for those sessions – you’d be fighting the wind more than the wave.

Monday the 17th through to Thursday the 20th is pretty grim. We’re looking at a big pulse of swell, hitting 12 ft to 13 ft, and it’s coming with strong onshore and cross-onshore winds. Periods are long, 15 to 17 seconds, which gives it some serious power (energy readings are through the roof, over 8500 at one point), but with the wind howling, it’s blown out and dangerous. This is expert-only territory, and even then, the conditions are poor. For a beginner spot, this is a major red alert – stay out of the water.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Friday the 21st of August is your standout for the first week. The swell drops back to 8 ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, but the magic is in the wind. We get a glassy 5 mph breeze from the NE in the morning. The description says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” which fits – that 8 ft is pushing into expert territory, but the glassy surface will mean incredibly clean, lined-up waves. The energy is still strong at 2520. This is the one to circle for the early period.

Saturday the 22nd is the other real highlight. The swell is a friendlier 6 ft, still from the WSW, but we finally get offshore wind from the ESE at 10 mph. This brings the wave height down to a level that’s more manageable and the conditions are described as clean. The energy is still decent at 2426. This is your best bet for a solid, well-shaped session that won't punish you as much.

Sunday the 23rd offers another clean morning with 7 ft and a cross-off breeze, but the wind swings onshore in the afternoon. From Monday the 24th onwards, the swell starts to taper off, and the conditions go back to being mixed with chop and cross-shore winds through to the 26th. The energy drops below 900, so the juice is fading.

Looking into the second week, things look promising again. Thursday the 27th kicks off with a clean morning on 6 ft swell. Then Friday the 28th is a proper standout: 7 ft swell with a very long 18-second period and glassy conditions. Expect some powerful, clean groundswell lines. That long period will mean longer waits between sets, but the waves will be well-shaped and juicy. Saturday the 29th starts off glassy again with a smaller 4 ft, but the afternoon brings a sudden jump to 10 ft with an onshore breeze, which looks messy. That glassy morning on the 29th would be a nice, cruisy session.

The very end of the forecast, Sunday the 30th, looks like it closes out with another strong pulse of 10 ft to 12 ft swell and a fresh onshore blow – back to the rough stuff.

Overall, you’re looking at a rough start, a clean-up around the 21st and 22nd, a small lull, and then a return to good, clean conditions on the 27th and 28th. For a consistent spot like this, we get these windows fairly often, so don’t lose hope during the stormy days. The best wave of the pack is that Friday the 28th morning session – glassy, long-period, and clean. Get on it.

-- Rusty

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