The Three Bears Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about The Three Bears. It’s a consistent reef break, exposed to the swell, and the optimum swell direction is from the southwest. Water temperature is sittin’ at 65°, which is just about normal for this time of year – no wild anomaly to speak of.

Right off the bat, there’s nothing worth paddling out for on Sunday or Monday, even though there’s solid swell in the water. The winds are just too strong and cross-off, and the forecast is full of “marginal” warnings. It’s frustrating because the energy is there – Sunday afternoon has combined swell energy of 3639 (moderate) – but you’ll be fighting the breeze the whole time.

Now, if you can wait, Tuesday the 8th is where the magic starts to line up. Tuesday morning sees a clean 10 ft swell out of the WSW with a 17-second period, and a fresh east-southeast offshore wind. The combined energy is 4852 (strong). That’s proper groundswell with plenty of grunt. This is a standout – a big, clean day for experienced surfers only. The afternoon holds up too, with moderate offshore wind and 10 ft swell at 16 seconds. But watch out, those long-period swells can be straight at beach breaks; they’ll be lining up much better at this reef.

Wednesday the 9th stays clean, but the size drops a little. Morning has a 8 ft swell and a strong cross-off wind, so it’s not perfect. The afternoon is the real winner – light offshore breeze, 7 ft of long-period WSW swell (15 seconds), and clean conditions. It’s marked as excellent for experienced surfers, and I’d say that’s the second standout of the forecast. Crowds are possible here sometimes, but on a Wednesday afternoon you might get lucky.

Thursday the 10th offers a glimmer – afternoon goes glassy with a 5 ft swell and only 3 mph wind from the west. That’s clean, but the energy is low at 1022 (weak). It’s a fun little session if you’re desperate, but nothing to write home about.

After that, the outlook turns ugly. From Friday the 11th through the 12th and 13th, we’ve got strong cross-onshore winds, lumpy conditions, and some rain. The swell sticks around, but the quality is shot. Then from the 14th into the 15th, conditions improve with lighter winds and clean waves in the mornings (8 ft and 7 ft respectively) – but afternoons get messy again.

The real kicker comes around the 18th and 19th of September. We’re looking at a huge 15 ft swell from the west, with onshore and strong cross-onshore winds. The combined energy shoots up into four digits – 4836 and even 10642 – so there’s monster energy in the water, but the wind is just trashing it. That setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Only the most experienced chargers should even think about it, and even then, conditions are poor.

So the pick of the forecast is Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th. Get it while it’s clean. The rest is a roll of the dice.

Rusty.

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