Express Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.51° S 145.27° E

Express Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 12 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Express Point sea temperature is
13.6° C
0.3° 

Express Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Express Point surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 8,575 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:

The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Mon 13th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 16s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 13th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 16s
Most Powerful 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on offer at our one spot in the window, Express Point. This is a classic point break setup, so it's all about lining up those long, wrapping walls. The water temperature is sitting at about 57°F, which is only a touch warmer than average for this time of year, nothing too wild.

The forecast kicks off with a bit of a false start. Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th, we've got serious size – up to 10ft of big, powerful SW groundswell with a period pushing 16 seconds. That's expert territory for sure. The wind is strong and offshore, which sounds perfect, but when you're staring down 10ft+ peaks, that offshore breeze can make it a real battle to get out the back. The combined energy is massive, reading 3447 on Monday morning. It's a lot of ocean moving around, but for most of us, it's going to be a tough, maybe even dangerous, paddle.

Right, now for the standout. Tuesday the 14th is the day to circle. We’re looking at a solid 12ft of WSW groundswell, still with a long 16-second period. The wind is a fresh offshore from the WNW, which is perfect for Express Point. Now, you’d think 12ft is too big, but the wave comment specifically says the wind and tide are workable. The combined swell energy is a whopping 10169, which is seriously strong. This is a big, powerful, clean point break setup. This is for the experienced crew only – if you've got the skill and the fitness, Tuesday morning is going to be the session of the trip. The crowds are often here, and for a day like this, you can bet it'll be busy.

After that peak, we settle into a beautiful run of clean, punchy surf. From Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th, we’ve got waist-to-head-high SW swell, solidly in the 5ft to 7ft range, with periods around 14 to 16 seconds. The wind is light and variable, often offshore or glassy. Thursday the 16th is a real gem – barely a breath of wind, with a 5ft, 15-second SW groundswell. The combined energy drops to a much more manageable 992, but the quality is high. Expect very good, clean conditions. Friday afternoon looks like it could be absolutely glassy with the wind swinging to the south at a mere 3 mph. This is the sweet spot for a good crowd of advanced and even strong intermediate surfers.

The weekend, the 18th and 19th, sees the swell taper off, dropping to around 3ft. Still clean, but you'll be hunting for the corners. It's a softer end to a solid week. Then we get a bit of a lull through the 20th and into the 21st, before a fresh pulse of 5ft to 6ft SW swell arrives on Tuesday the 21st with a moderate offshore wind. That looks promising again.

Looking further out into the second week, there are a couple of flickers. Saturday the 25th has a 5ft SW swell with light offshore winds – that's a good call for a clean point session. Also, Monday the 27th shows a spike in size to nearly 7ft, but the period drops to a short, weak 8 seconds and the wind is gusty. That’s a chop fest, more of a kiteboarding affair than a clean paddle session. Not what we're after here.

So, to wrap it up: the absolute standout is Tuesday the 14th for the big-wave crew. For the best all-round quality in the sweet spot for advanced surfers, lock in Thursday the 16th to Friday the 17th. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon afternoon, light winds from the W by Wed morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Sun
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
2
!
!
!
4
4
2
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
WSW
13
2.5
SW
13
3
SW
15
3
SW
16
4.5
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
15
3
SW
15
2
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.7
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.3
SW
14
1.2
SW
13
0.9
SW
13
0.8
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2347
2254
3447
4013
8575
6491
6107
4334
1624
1238
1033
992
1048
1123
1456
1281
1011
706
503
282
199
Wind (km/h)
40
WNW
40
NW
45
NW
45
NW
35
NW
35
WNW
30
WNW
25
WSW
20
NW
20
WSW
15
WSW
5
W
5
WSW
0
SE
10
N
5
S
10
NNE
15
N
5
N
15
N
20
N
Wind State
off
off
off
off
off
off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
8:11PM2.13m
9:59AM2.23m
9:16PM2.10m
11:07AM2.28m
10:27PM2.11m
12:10PM2.35m
11:40PM2.14m
1:06PM2.42m
00:49AM2.19m
1:57PM2.48m
1:54AM2.24m
2:43PM2.51m
2:53AM2.27m
Low Tide
3:02AM0.11m
3:44PM1.08m
4:07AM0.08m
4:56PM1.04m
5:14AM0.06m
6:05PM0.94m
6:18AM0.05m
7:07PM0.79m
7:18AM0.08m
8:04PM0.62m
8:13AM0.14m
8:55PM0.46m
9:04AM0.25m
light rain
light rain
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
7:31
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:14
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:19
 mm
4
1
1
3
1
1
Temp °C
13
12
14
14
13
12
13
13
11
12
14
14
14
14
11
11
11
11
14
13
13
Feels °C
5
3
5
4
5
5
7
6
8
8
12
12
12
13
8
10
9
9
12
10
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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