Express Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.51° S 145.27° E

Express Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 11 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Express Point sea temperature is
13.8°C
1.1° 

Express Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Express Point surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 3,737 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:

The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 6s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Sat 12th Sep)6ft (1.8m) 16s
Best Surf 4AM (Sat 12th Sep)6ft (1.8m) 16s
Most Powerful 4AM (Wed 16th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get you the skinny on Express Point for the next couple weeks, in feet and miles per hour.

Water temp is a pleasant 57°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – a little treat.

Friday the 11th starts things off. Friday morning is the one to get wet. We've got a clean 6ft SW groundswell, period a long 15 seconds (combined energy of 1229). With the wind dead calm, glassy as a pond, it's gonna be firing. Expect very good surf. The afternoon gets a tricky cross-onshore breeze, so don't sleep on that morning window.

Saturday the 12th morning is the crown jewel of the first week. Still 6ft, same SW direction, but the period is even longer at 16 seconds, and we get a light cross-offshore wind. Combined energy is 1402. That's excellent, clean, powerful surf for those who know what they're doing. Afternoon gets messy with a light cross-onshore, so the early bird gets the worm.

Sunday the 13th drops off hard. Morning is a bust with cloud and 16 mph winds from the north. Afternoon cleans up with an offshore breeze, but the swell is only 4ft – it's there, but not worth a special trip.

Monday the 14th is junk – winds are blowing 19-25 mph and the swell is tiny. Tuesday the 15th gets some size, but it's a washing machine. 8ft in the morning with 25 mph winds and rain? No thanks. By afternoon it's 10ft but with a strong side-shore and chop. That's kite-surfing weather, not paddle surfing. Wednesday the 16th stays big and ugly at 8-10ft with a cross-onshore wind ruining it. Thursday the 17th is a drop to 5-5ft with a side-shore wind. Mediocre at best.

Now, Friday the 18th morning is a major highlight. 5ft of SW groundswell, period back to 16 seconds, combined energy 1164. But the key is a moderate offshore wind from the NNW. That's clean, lined-up, powerful surf. The afternoon holds up too.

Then a lull. Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st is mostly poor to marginal – small swell and wind issues.

But Tuesday the 22nd is the bomb. Morning brings 8ft of SW groundswell, period 16 seconds, combined energy a massive 3589. That's a serious amount of water moving. Light offshore, clean. Experts only. The real magic is Tuesday afternoon: 10ft, same 16-second period, combined energy 4117, and the wind goes dead calm – glassy. That is a once-in-a-forecast-session kind of day. Perfect, big, powerful point break waves.

Wednesday the 23rd still has 7ft in the morning, clean, but it's a step down. Then it fades through the end of the month. Thursday the 24th has 4ft, but a side-shore wind cuts the quality. Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th get big again, but it's all side-shore and messy.

To sum it up: First week, Saturday the 12th morning is your cleanest, best bet. Second week, without a doubt, Tuesday the 22nd, especially the afternoon glass-off. That's the one to block out your calendar for.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the SW by Wed night).

Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
3
4
2
2
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
2
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
SW
15
1.8
SW
15
1.9
SW
16
1.7
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
15
1.2
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
15
0.8
SW
14
0.7
SW
13
1.4
SW
18
2.3
SW
9
3
SW
14
3
SW
14
2.5
WSW
14
3
SW
14
2
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1229
1540
1875
1402
1216
906
606
595
415
221
176
1124
809
3504
3468
2838
3331
1692
1063
787
1006
Wind (km/h)
0
WSW
10
S
5
NE
10
N
10
SSE
20
NNE
25
N
25
NNW
15
N
30
NNW
40
WSW
40
WSW
40
WSW
45
SW
40
S
30
S
20
S
15
SW
20
SW
10
SW
15
N
Wind State
glassy
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
High Tide
11:22AM2.11m
11:35PM2.06m
12:16PM2.17m
00:42AM2.17m
1:04PM2.24m
1:37AM2.28m
1:46PM2.28m
2:25AM2.36m
2:26PM2.30m
3:08AM2.39m
3:03PM2.30m
3:48AM2.37m
3:38PM2.27m
Low Tide
5:32PM0.76m
5:55AM0.53m
6:30PM0.57m
6:53AM0.53m
7:20PM0.40m
7:43AM0.54m
8:04PM0.27m
8:28AM0.56m
8:45PM0.19m
9:09AM0.59m
9:23PM0.17m
9:46AM0.64m
9:59PM0.19m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:26
6:24
6:24
6:22
6:20
6:18
6:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:05
6:05
6:06
6:07
6:07
6:08
6:09
 mm
2
2
Temp °C
11
11
11
16
18
17
21
22
20
16
14
15
11
11
10
11
11
11
10
10
9
Feels °C
8
8
8
15
15
14
16
17
16
10
9
10
1
0
-1
5
6
6
5
8
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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