Surf Forecasts:
Express Point surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 7,616 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:
The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the coming swell window for Express Point.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but hold onto your board – there’s some serious juice coming later. The water is at 56°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no need to dig out the thick suit.
The first few days are a bit of a write-off, honestly. Tuesday the 28th is a no-go with a cross-offshore gale blowing 31 mph, even though there’s a 4ft SW swell. The energy is weak at 438, and it’s just messy. Wednesday the 29th sees a big jump in size – 12ft SW swell with a 16-second period – but the wind is still cross-off and strong. The combined energy is pumping (6285), but that size is for experts only, and the wind is still gnarly. By Wednesday afternoon, the conditions are still cross-off, but the energy is huge (5205), and it’s just too big for this point to be fun.
Thursday the 30th drops back to 6ft SW, but it’s still cross-off with a fresh breeze. The energy is moderate (1162), but the wind is making it messy. Friday the 31st is the first real glimmer of hope. The swell drops to 4ft SW, but the wind backs right off to a light breeze, and the energy is low (434). It’s clean, but small. Not a standout.
Now, Saturday the 1st of August is where it gets interesting. The morning is tiny, but the afternoon brings a 5ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period and a clean offshore NNW breeze at 16 mph. The energy is strong (1482). That long period groundswell is perfect for a point break like this – it’ll wrap in and offer some beautiful, lined-up walls. The crowd factor is "often," so expect company, but the quality will be there. This is one of the best options on offer.
Sunday the 2nd is similar in size (5ft SW, 16-second period) with a fresh offshore, but the energy is a bit lower (1165). It’s still a solid session.
Then the window gets a bit patchy. The first week of August has some onshore wind and small, weaker swells, but things pick up again around Wednesday the 5th. That afternoon is glassy – 3ft SW with a 14-second period and a slight air breeze. The energy is moderate (583), and it’ll be clean as a whistle. A nice little session for logs or mid-lengths.
The real sleeper, and the other standout, is Tuesday the 11th of August. A 5ft SW swell with a 13-second period and a gentle cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is 612 – solid. That’s a classic, user-friendly point break day.
The pick: Saturday the 1st of August afternoon for the long-period groundswell and clean offshore wind, and Tuesday the 11th of August for a more relaxed, clean session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 411 | 871 | 1972 | 6285 | 5205 | 2570 | 1162 | 878 | 537 | 416 | 303 | 240 | 249 | 1420 | 2089 | 1165 | 1200 | 847 | 1344 | 1581 | 757 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:50AM1.93m | 9:54PM1.78m | 11:49AM1.99m | 11:02PM1.78m | 12:40PM2.07m | 00:06AM1.81m | 1:23PM2.15m | 1:03AM1.87m | 2:01PM2.23m | 1:54AM1.94m | 2:35PM2.28m | 2:41AM2.02m | 3:07PM2.31m | 3:24AM2.10m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:35PM1.22m | 4:45AM0.55m | 5:43PM1.17m | 5:42AM0.52m | 6:42PM1.07m | 6:34AM0.50m | 7:30PM0.94m | 7:21AM0.48m | 8:11PM0.80m | 8:05AM0.47m | 8:48PM0.66m | 8:45AM0.49m | 9:23PM0.53m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | | |  | |  | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — |
 | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | — | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 3 | -3 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 411 | 871 | 1972 | — | — | — | 1162 | 816 | 537 | 416 | 303 | 240 | 217 | 1420 | 2089 | 1165 | 1200 | 847 | 1344 | 1581 | 757 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 23 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 18 | S 18 | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 27 | 640 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 18 | 62 | 97 | 249 | 62 | 160 | — | — | 255 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | S 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 5 | NW 4 | NW 5 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 4 | SW 5 | SSW 7 | — | ESE 4 |
| kJ | 71 | 45 | 47 | 6285 | 5205 | 2570 | — | 878 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 31 | 28 | 51 | 153 | — | 35 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 255 | 483 | 381 | 477 | 316 | 95 | 84 | 84 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 84 | 445 | 84 | 11 | 11 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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