Express Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.51° S 145.27° E

Express Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 21 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Express Point sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.6° 

Express Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Express Point surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 4,772 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:

The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Sun 26th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 12s
Best Surf 1AM (Tue 28th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 12s
Most Powerful 1AM (Fri 24th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s coming for Express Point.

We’ve got a solid stretch of south-west groundswell, but it takes a few days to really fire. The first few days are pretty weak—small waves and tricky winds keep things marginal. The real juice starts on Thursday the 24th.

Thursday morning the 24th brings a 9.8ft SW swell with a 15-second period. That’s serious groundswell energy, and the combined energy is cranking at 3557. Winds are a fresh cross-offshore breeze, so it’ll be clean but this is for experts only. The swell direction is dead-on for the break’s optimal SSW angle. This is the standout of the whole outlook. It’s big, powerful, and groomed. Crowds are likely, but on a wave like this, you’ll be sharing with a few dedicated locals.

Friday morning the 24th drops to 8.2ft, still with that 15-second period, and still clean. Energy is still strong at 2633. A solid day, but Thursday morning is the one to circle.

Saturday and Sunday the swell settles into the 7.2ft to 4.3ft range, with period shortening a bit. Still clean and surfable, but nothing that’ll blow your mind.

Then Monday the 27th sees a big drop—down to 2.6ft to 3.3ft—and the wind goes offshore. It’s a small wave day, but clean. Not a standout.

Now here’s a sleeper: Tuesday the 28th morning. Another 9.8ft pulse, but with a shorter 9-second period. The wind is light and cross-off, so it’ll be clean. But that short period means the waves will be a bit lumpy and less lined up. Still, 9.8ft is 9.8ft, and it’s a good option for the advanced crew.

After that, winds get messy. Wednesday the 29th has a 7.5ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, but it’s cross-on or onshore, so expect some chop.

The real gem in the second week is Thursday the 30th afternoon. Only 4.6ft, but the wind goes glassy, the period is a nice 13 seconds, and the energy is 1173. That’s a clean, beautiful afternoon session. Friday the 31st afternoon is similar—4.3ft, glassy, 17-second period. These are the kind of afternoons you live for.

The first week of August sees a slow fade. The swell drops off, periods get long, but the winds are fresh offshore or strong offshore. That’s clean but hard to paddle into, and the energy is low. Not worth the effort for most.

Overall, Thursday the 24th morning is the absolute best of the bunch. Big, powerful, clean, and well-directed. After that, keep an eye on the glassy afternoons late in the month.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Wed afternoon). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the W on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the WSW by Thu night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun afternoon).

Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
SW
12
1.1
SW
12
1.3
WSW
12
1.9
SW
11
2.3
SW
14
2.5
SW
14
3
SW
16
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.3
SW
14
2.2
SW
13
2.1
SW
12
1.6
SW
12
1.3
SW
11
1.1
SW
11
0.9
SW
11
0.8
SW
11
1
SW
11
2.5
SW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
260
319
508
898
2247
2785
4772
3557
2633
2094
1497
1249
644
429
298
187
165
245
2231
Wind (km/h)
35
NNW
30
NW
35
WSW
35
WSW
35
W
45
W
50
WSW
35
W
35
WNW
35
WNW
35
WSW
35
WSW
20
NW
15
WNW
15
WSW
20
NNW
20
NNW
15
NW
15
NW
Wind State
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
off
off
High Tide
5:28AM2.18m
5:21PM2.31m
6:15AM2.11m
5:57PM2.20m
7:02AM2.04m
6:33PM2.09m
7:51AM1.98m
7:12PM1.98m
8:46AM1.93m
7:57PM1.89m
9:46AM1.91m
8:51PM1.82m
Low Tide
11:11PM0.26m
11:19AM0.68m
11:52PM0.29m
12:01PM0.83m
00:32AM0.34m
12:44PM0.96m
1:13AM0.41m
1:30PM1.07m
1:58AM0.47m
2:23PM1.16m
2:49AM0.52m
3:25PM1.22m
3:45AM0.55m
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
cloud
cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:28
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:22
5:23
5:24
 mm
4
5
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
Temp °C
12
13
12
11
10
11
11
11
12
13
12
13
12
13
13
13
13
15
14
Feels °C
6
7
7
5
1
0
0
3
4
6
5
6
7
9
11
9
9
12
11
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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