Express Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.51° S 145.27° E

Express Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 21 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Express Point sea temperature is
13.4° C
0.9° 

Express Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Express Point surf forecast from 20 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 3,204 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 21 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:

The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 21) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Friday (Aug 21) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Fri 21st Aug)3.5ft (1.1m) 15s
Best Surf 1AM (Sun 23rd Aug)7.5ft (2.3m) 14s
Most Powerful10AM (Sat 22nd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty checkin' in from the local scene. Gotta be straight with you: the next couple of days are a bit of a mixed bag. The first real standout doesn't pop until Saturday morning the 22nd, so there's a bit of a wait.

The overall pattern is a long-period SW groundswell, which is great for a point break like this, but it's gonna be a bumpy ride before we get the good stuff.

Friday the 21st is a write-off. There's some swell, about 3.6ft from the SW with a long 16-second period, and the wind is offshore in the morning. But the combined energy is only moderate (673), and the forecast is calling it marginal. Wind picks up to 18 mph in the arvo, so not the one.

Saturday the 22nd is where we see a big jump in size. The morning session is pumping with an 8.2ft SW swell and still that long period (15 seconds). The combined energy is strong (3204), so you'll feel it. But the wind is crankin' at 18 mph from the WNW. It's offshore, which will hold it up, but that's a howling breeze, so it will be a battle. This is the first of the standout windows, but it's only for the brave. Afternoon is a no-go with a 22 mph cross-shore wind turning it into messy chop.

Now, Sunday morning the 23rd... this is the real deal. The swell drops a touch to a very clean and powerful 5.6ft from the SW, and the period is a solid 14 seconds. The wind is a gentle 9 mph from the NW, which is pure offshore. The combined energy is still strong (1658). The forecast says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is the best on offer for the first week. Get out there early.

The rest of the week is a real struggle. The swell gets smaller and the wind turns onshore or cross-shore for the most part, churning things up. There is a brief tease on Tuesday afternoon the 25th when it goes glassy with a 3 mph wind from the NE, but that's only for a 4.3ft swell. A nice window of calm if you're desperate.

We hit a proper dry spell from early Thursday the 27th. The swell drops below 3ft and the wind is junk. Keep your board in the car, but don't get your hopes up.

The next real glimmer of hope returns on Friday the 28th. The morning will be clean with a cross-off wind and a 5.6ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period. The energy is strong (1690), but the morning gets a "marginal" tag. The afternoon, however, is a beauty. By afternoon, the wind goes super light offshore from the WNW at just 3 mph. The swell holds steady at 5.2ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is strong (1398). The forecast is calling it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That's another major standout. The long period will peel perfectly down this point.

Then another gap... Another stormy, junk period runs from the 29th through the 31st. After that, Tuesday the 1st of September is looking promising again. The morning is glassy, nearly calm, with a cross-off breeze from the NNE at 3 mph. The swell is a solid 5.2ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The energy is strong (1455) and the conditions are called "excellent". That is the third standout.

The rest of the second week into early September looks windy and junky, with the swell staying under 4.6ft and the wind screaming from the NNW at gale force on the 3rd. There's a brief window Wednesday the 2nd arvo with clean, small 3.9ft surf, but it's nothing special.

Overall, the standouts are undeniably Sunday morning the 23rd, Friday afternoon the 28th, and that Tuesday morning the 1st of September. Each of those is a treat.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the SW by Sun afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Mainly fresh winds.

Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
3
1
4
4
3
2
0
1
2
1
3
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.3
SW
17
2.5
SW
15
2.5
SW
14
2.3
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.2
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1.2
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.3
SW
13
2
WSW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1
SW
13
0.8
SW
12
0.4
SW
22
1.1
SW
19
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
539
472
1026
3204
2976
2082
1091
1474
1055
581
499
466
683
553
1667
650
437
320
197
134
791
Wind (km/h)
25
WNW
30
NW
35
WNW
30
WNW
35
SW
15
NW
15
NW
5
SW
20
NNW
30
NNW
15
NNW
15
NNE
15
SE
5
NE
30
WSW
15
SW
25
SE
30
ESE
25
E
10
ESE
20
NE
Wind State
off
off
off
off
cross
off
off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
glassy
cross-off
cross
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
High Tide
5:20PM2.19m
6:21AM2.09m
5:54PM2.09m
7:05AM1.99m
6:31PM1.99m
7:57AM1.91m
7:14PM1.89m
8:58AM1.86m
8:09PM1.80m
10:05AM1.86m
9:19PM1.75m
11:09AM1.92m
10:38PM1.75m
Low Tide
11:28AM0.81m
11:51PM0.32m
12:06PM0.92m
00:30AM0.41m
12:47PM1.03m
1:13AM0.50m
1:35PM1.13m
2:04AM0.57m
2:37PM1.20m
3:03AM0.63m
3:54PM1.21m
4:09AM0.65m
5:09PM1.14m
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
heavy rain
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:58
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:48
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:45
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
 mm
1
13
1
2
Temp °C
13
13
12
13
12
12
12
14
13
15
17
15
11
11
12
12
12
11
14
16
10
Feels °C
8
7
5
7
5
7
9
12
9
10
13
11
8
10
5
9
7
5
11
13
4
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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