
Surf Forecasts:
Express Point surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with 1,500 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:
The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 1.8m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Express Point’s got cookin’ for the next couple weeks.
We start with a run of waves from Wednesday the 15th of July. Not a barnstormer right away, but there’s some proper quality tucked into the second half of this week. Water temp’s about 56.7°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so nothin’ unusual.
Wednesday afternoon kicks off with 6.6ft of SW swell at a 14-second interval. Wind’s cross-off from the west at 12 mph, and the wave energy is solid at 1528, but the call says marginal. Not a session to get excited about.
Thursday the 16th is where we hit the sweet spot. Morning’s okay with 5.9ft of SW swell at 15 seconds and cross-shore wind, but Thursday afternoon is the real gem. Wind shifts to light WSW at 6 mph, cross-off, and the swell holds at 5.9ft from the SW with a 15-second period. Energy sits at 1480, and the report says excellent for experienced surfers. This is your standout – Express Point (Express-Point) will be smooth, lined up, and offering some long, rippable walls. That long period means bigger sets with good gaps – perfect for a point.
Friday the 17th keeps it clean. Morning has 5.2ft of SW swell (16 seconds) with a NNW cross-off breeze at 9 mph. Afternoon turns glassy with offshore NW wind at just 3 mph, same swell size, and energy at 1314. Clean waves and open faces. Keep in mind, crowds are often a thing here, so get out early.
Saturday the 18th drops to 4.6ft of SW swell in the morning, but the afternoon is pure magic – glassy calm, zero wind from the east, 4.3ft swell, energy at 586. It’ll be small but perfect for a longboard and a relaxing session.
Sunday the 19th is smaller again – 3.0ft in the morning, 2.6ft in the afternoon – but still clean. Nothing special, but still surfable.
Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are a write-off. Swell drops to 2.0ft, wind howls from the NNW at 19 mph, and the ratings are poor. Don’t bother.
Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd bring a rebound. Thursday afternoon is the pick: 4.6ft of SW swell with a 16-second period, light offshore NW wind at 9 mph, and wave energy at 1029. Clean, lined-up waves with that long-period push. Another solid window.
Friday the 24th through Sunday the 27th gets lumpy. Friday has 5.9ft of SW swell but cross-shore wind and chop – poor. Saturday the 25th pumps 6.9ft of SW swell with a 16-second period, energy at a massive 2445, but it’s marginal and cross-off. Sunday the 26th has strong offshore wind from the NW at 22-25 mph – clean but gnarly to paddle into, swell around 4.9-5.2ft. Experts only.
Monday the 27th brings the biggest swell: 7.5-8.2ft from the SW at 16 seconds, but cross-shore wind and chop. Energy peaks at 3147 – that’s serious power, but messy. Might be more fun on a kite than a paddleboard.
From Tuesday the 28th on, it fades. Wind turns cross-onshore, and conditions get poor. Wednesday the 29th shows a small pulse of 3.6ft SW with light offshore wind, but Thursday the 30th has just 1.3ft of swell with a crazy long 21-second period and fresh offshore wind – not for ridin’, just a sign the ocean’s still alive.
Best bets: Thursday afternoon the 16th and Thursday afternoon the 23rd. Clean, solid SW swell, light offshore wind, at a classic point break. Friday the 17th is a close second.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wed 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 11 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1528 | 1363 | 1460 | 1480 | 1138 | 1281 | 1314 | 1053 | 791 | 586 | 374 | 269 | 172 | 114 | 432 | 147 | 206 | 142 | 109 | 158 | 292 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off |
High Tide | 11:40PM2.14m | 1:06PM2.42m | 00:49AM2.19m | 1:57PM2.48m | 1:54AM2.24m | 2:43PM2.51m | 2:53AM2.27m | 3:26PM2.51m | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:05PM0.94m | 6:18AM0.05m | 7:07PM0.79m | 7:18AM0.08m | 8:04PM0.62m | 8:13AM0.14m | 8:55PM0.46m | 9:04AM0.25m | 9:43PM0.34m | 9:51AM0.38m | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | |||||||
— | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | |
5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | 5:21 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 |
1528 | 1363 | 1460 | 1480 | 1138 | 1281 | 1314 | 1053 | 791 | 586 | 374 | 269 | 172 | 114 | 432 | 147 | 206 | 142 | 75 | 150 | 292 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 12 | SW 10 | SW 18 | SW 13 | SW 14 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | 60 | 111 | 10 | 66 | 4 | 13 | 109 | 158 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SSW 10 | — | SSW 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | WSW 17 | E 10 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | 37 | 21 | — | 9 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 2 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 3 | — | NNW 2 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 3 | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











