Surf Forecasts:
Express Point surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 6 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 3 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 3,797 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:
The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Friday (Jul 10) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Fri 3rd Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Express Point has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.
First up, the overall pattern: We're going to have a mix of decent clean windows, but also periods where the wind just ruins it. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, nothing unusual there.
The outlook kicks off on Friday, July 3rd, but honestly, don't even bother. We've got a massive 12 ft SW swell but it's being hammered by a 31 mph cross-off wind. The combined energy is huge at 6158, but the conditions are just poor. It's a write-off.
Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th are also a miss. The swell drops a bit, but we're stuck with strong cross and cross-on winds, making for lumpy, choppy surf. Not worth the paddle out.
Now, we get our first real window of opportunity. Monday morning, July 6th is the standout of the first week. The swell drops to a clean 4 ft from the SW with a nice 15-second period. The wind swings light northerly, giving us a clean cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate at 550, but the conditions are what matter here. This is a proper session for an advanced surfer at Express Point. Keep in mind, Express Point is a consistent spot that can draw a crowd.
Tuesday morning, July 7th looks similar again – 3 ft SW swell, light northerly, clean. Another good one.
We hit a bit of a flat spot mid-week. Wednesday and Thursday the 8th and 9th see the wind turn onshore, making things choppy, so they’re a no-go. But then we get another beauty on Friday, July 10th morning. It’s 4 ft SW swell, light offshore, with glassy conditions in the afternoon. That’s a gem.
Saturday the 11th is small and clean but not much energy. Sunday the 12th, watch out. A very long period 21-second groundswell from the WSW arrives, but it's combined with a strong 25 mph cross-off wind. The energy is a serious 1895, but the size jumps to 7 ft in the afternoon. This will be too big and unruly for most, and that kind of period tends to close out beach breaks anyway.
The following week gets messy. July 13th has an 12 ft SW swell that the file says is actually too big for this break itself, with strong cross winds. The 14th and 15th are a total loss with near gale and strong onshore winds. The swell energy is massive but it's unfriendly.
We finally get another clear, clean window on Friday, July 17th morning. A 4 ft SW groundswell (15-second period) and glassy conditions. This is a top pick for the second week. Very good conditions. Saturday the 18th morning also looks clean with a gentle offshore breeze.
So, if you want the best of it, don't miss Monday the 6th and Friday the 10th. For the second week, lock in Friday the 17th morning. Be ready for crowds though, as that spot is a known go-to when it's clean.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Fri afternoon, calm by Mon morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 6158 | 2985 | 1890 | 1452 | 2065 | 2893 | 2269 | 1101 | 543 | 407 | 276 | 567 | 567 | 705 | 1163 | 1880 | 1109 | 666 | 472 | 611 | 595 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:09AM1.90m | 3:03PM2.30m | 2:54AM1.93m | 3:36PM2.32m | 3:37AM1.96m | 4:08PM2.32m | 4:21AM2.00m | 4:39PM2.30m | 5:06AM2.04m | 5:11PM2.27m | 5:54AM2.09m | 5:47PM2.24m | 6:47AM2.13m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:36PM0.88m | 8:24AM0.41m | 9:15PM0.79m | 9:02AM0.44m | 9:51PM0.70m | 9:40AM0.49m | 10:26PM0.61m | 10:19AM0.56m | 11:01PM0.51m | 11:00AM0.64m | 11:38PM0.41m | 11:45AM0.74m | 00:19AM0.31m | 12:34PM0.85m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | |  | | | | |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 |
 | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | 5:12 |
mm | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 2065 | 2893 | 2269 | 1101 | 543 | 407 | 276 | 567 | 567 | 705 | 1163 | 1880 | 1109 | 666 | 472 | 611 | 595 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | — | SE 5 | SE 5 | ESE 4 | SSW 18 | — | — | SW 14 | SSW 17 | — | — | — | ESE 4 | SSW 16 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 373 | 1375 | 469 | — | 4 | 5 | 2 | 32 | — | — | 265 | 235 | — | — | — | 3 | 26 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 4 | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | SSW 19 | SE 9 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 299 | — | — | — | — | 34 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SSW 16 | SSE 5 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | NE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | SSE 6 | E 3 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 6158 | 2985 | 1890 | 1452 | 1991 | 19 | 24 | 19 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 15 | 5 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 520 | 84 | 84 | 442 | 248 | 11 | 58 | 58 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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