Express Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.51° S 145.27° E

Express Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 03 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Express Point sea temperature is
13.1° C
0.2° 

Express Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Express Point surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 13s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 19s period, WSW swell with 5,668 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:

The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.0m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Thu 6th Aug)2ft (0.6m) 12s
Best Surf 7AM (Mon 10th Aug)11ft (3.5m) 13s
Most Powerful 4AM (Mon 10th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, let's get into it. We've got a 16-day window here, and it's a bit of a slow burner at Express Point.

Monday morning, the 3rd of August, kicks things off with a 4ft SW swell, period a very long 15 seconds. The water is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year. But the wind is a solid 22 mph offshore, so the surface will be clean. It's a bit marginal though, and the combined energy is moderate (979). It's rideable, but not a standout.

Monday afternoon sees the swell bump up to 5ft, but the wind goes cross-offshore and the score drops. Tuesday morning is a similar story – 4ft, offshore wind, but still marginal. Tuesday afternoon goes downhill with a strong 25 mph cross-offshore wind and a 7ft swell that's a bit of a mess. Wednesday morning is a write-off with onshore wind and a short 9-second period.

Then we get a little glimmer. Wednesday afternoon, the 5th of August, the swell drops to 5ft, but the period jumps to a very long 19 seconds. The combined energy is strong (1917), and the wind is clean cross-offshore. This is a very long-period groundswell, which means it'll have a lot of energy and shape, but at a point break like Express Point, that's a good thing. It's a solid option.

Thursday the 6th is small, with a 1ft to 2ft swell, but it's clean. Then Friday the 7th of August is where it gets interesting. The morning is 4ft with a 16-second period, clean cross-offshore wind. But the real standout is Friday afternoon: the same 4ft SW swell, 15-second period, and the wind goes completely glassy – 0 mph. That's a rare treat. The combined energy is moderate (1088), but with that glassy surface, it's going to be smooth and fun. This is the best call for the first week.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th look average with building wind and poor conditions. Sunday is a write-off.

Now we get into the second week, and things get serious. The swell really starts pumping. Monday the 10th of August is the big one, but it's a double-edged sword. The swell hits 12ft, with a 14 to 16-second period, and the combined energy is very strong (5212 to 6525). The wind is offshore and clean. However, 12ft is too big for this break – it's an expert-only situation. Not for the average surfer.

Tuesday the 11th is still too big at 10ft, and the wind is messy. Wednesday the 12th drops to a more manageable 5ft, but the wind is a strong 25 mph offshore. It's clean, but hard work to paddle into. Thursday the 13th is another huge day, 12ft again, but with cross-shore wind.

Friday the 14th of August is the standout in the second week. The swell is still a solid 10ft, but the period is a massive 19 seconds. The combined energy is very strong (6282). The wind is moderate offshore. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers who know what they're doing at a point break. It's a powerful, long-period groundswell that will wrap in beautifully.

Saturday the 15th of August is a nice drop-off to 5ft, clean with a light offshore wind. Good for a wind-down. The rest of the window from Sunday the 16th onwards fades out with smaller, mostly cross-shore conditions.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are Friday afternoon, the 7th of August, for that glassy, clean, 4ft fun, and Friday the 14th of August, for the big, powerful, long-period 10ft groundswell for the experts. The middle of the second week has some serious size, but it's too big for most. Crowds at Express Point are often there, so expect company, especially on the good days.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 34mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Mon night, light winds from the SSW by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sat night).

Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
Saturday
8
Sunday
9
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
0
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
1
3
2
3
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.9
WSW
14
1.3
SW
11
2.1
SW
12
1.5
SW
10
1.5
SW
9
1.4
SW
19
0.5
SW
18
0.6
SW
12
0.7
SW
16
1.2
SW
18
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.3
SW
15
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
14
0.7
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
677
1235
1272
382
1141
433
334
1401
150
93
242
936
803
705
715
931
886
472
336
257
1088
Wind (km/h)
35
NW
30
WNW
40
WNW
25
NW
40
WSW
25
SW
25
SW
30
WSW
20
W
20
NW
30
NW
30
NW
20
W
0
WNW
20
NNE
25
N
20
NNW
35
N
55
N
45
N
50
WSW
Wind State
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:07PM2.31m
3:24AM2.10m
3:38PM2.33m
4:07AM2.18m
4:09PM2.33m
4:50AM2.23m
4:43PM2.32m
5:36AM2.25m
5:19PM2.29m
6:26AM2.24m
6:01PM2.26m
7:22AM2.21m
6:49PM2.20m
Low Tide
9:23PM0.53m
9:24AM0.52m
9:57PM0.40m
10:03AM0.58m
10:32PM0.29m
10:44AM0.65m
11:10PM0.20m
11:26AM0.75m
11:53PM0.14m
12:12PM0.85m
00:41AM0.12m
1:05PM0.96m
1:36AM0.14m
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
heavy rain
thunderstorm
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
thunderstorm
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
7:15
7:13
7:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:30
5:31
5:31
5:32
5:34
5:35
5:36
 mm
1
3
12
5
10
2
1
3
1
2
9
Temp °C
11
12
10
11
12
12
12
12
12
9
10
11
12
13
13
14
15
14
11
11
12
Feels °C
3
5
3
5
4
7
7
6
6
4
3
5
7
11
9
9
10
6
-1
3
1
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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