
Surf Forecasts:
Express Point surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 13 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,252 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 13 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:
The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 2.5m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk about Express Point. This is a classic point break that loves a good southwest swell, and it’s a consistent spot when the stars align. The water temperature is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing crazy.
The main story here is a solid run of long-period groundswell from the SW, with periods sitting around 15 to 16 seconds. That’s proper energy, and on a point, it’s going to line up nicely. The wind is the variable – some days it’s glassy, some days it’s a bit cross.
The first real action is Thursday the 13th. The morning brings an 8ft SW swell, same long 16-second period, and offshore winds from the WNW at 19 mph. That’s fresh offshore and clean – the waves will be smooth and powerful. The energy is strong (3039). This is a big one, so it’s for experienced surfers only. The afternoon holds at 8ft with a lighter cross-off, still clean.
Friday the 14th keeps the swell at 8ft in the morning, cross-off wind, 2475 energy. It’s still a solid, clean option. The afternoon turns cross-shore and gets a bit messy.
Saturday the 15th, the swell drops to 6ft, period 15 seconds, and the wind goes light cross-onshore. The morning is still surfable, but not as clean. The energy is 1632, moderate.
Sunday the 16th, the swell is down to 5ft, cross-shore wind, energy 813. It’s small and choppy. Monday the 17th is even smaller at 4ft, onshore winds – not worth it.
There’s a real quiet spell from the 16th through the 21st, with small swell and poor conditions. Tuesday the 18th has a tiny 4ft swell with a light cross-off breeze, but it’s just not enough to get excited about.
The second week has a couple of highlights. Monday the 24th has a 4ft SW swell, 17-second period, light cross-off breeze, energy 1136. The forecast calls it very good surf conditions – that’s a sleeper. Tuesday the 25th afternoon sees a big spike back to 8ft, SW, 15 seconds, energy 2982, with a moderate cross-off breeze. That’s a big one.
And the real standout is Wednesday the 26th morning: 7ft SW swell, 14-second period, gentle cross-off breeze, energy 1895. The forecast calls it excellent for experienced surfers, and it’s clean. That’s the session to aim for.
After that, the swell drops off quickly into Thursday the 27th, with onshore winds and lumpy conditions.
If you’re picking your moment, Thursday the 13th morning for the big, clean, offshore power, and Wednesday the 26th morning for the slightly smaller but still excellent conditions. The 24th to 26th window is a promising one, but it’s still a ways out, so keep an eye on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Wed morning, light winds from the SSE by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2002 | 2475 | 2874 | 3039 | 2829 | 2634 | 2475 | 2295 | 2157 | 1632 | 1381 | 1108 | 813 | 726 | 623 | 581 | 783 | 705 | 528 | 520 | 339 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-off | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:44AM2.16m | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | 1:33PM2.37m | 1:48AM2.24m | 2:17PM2.42m | 2:42AM2.31m | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | 3:35PM2.41m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | 7:05AM0.30m | 7:45PM0.51m | 7:59AM0.34m | 8:33PM0.35m | 8:47AM0.41m | 9:17PM0.24m | 9:31AM0.49m | 9:58PM0.19m | ||||||||
7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | |
— | 5:38 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | |
mm | 3 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | SW 16 | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
24 | 2475 | — | 3039 | 2829 | 2634 | 2475 | 2295 | 2157 | 1632 | 1381 | 1108 | 813 | 726 | 623 | 581 | 783 | 705 | 528 | 520 | 339 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | — | W 24 | — | SE 5 | SW 18 | ESE 6 | SW 16 |
— | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | 11 | — | 5 | 117 | 7 | 198 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 6 | — | E 6 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | — | SE 6 | E 4 |
2002 | 758 | 2874 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 9 | 5 | 28 | — | 6 | 4 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 71 | 84 | 21 | 80 | 80 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











