Express Point Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.51° S 145.27° E

Express Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 27 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Express Point sea temperature is
13.5°C
0.9° 

Express Point surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Express Point surf forecast from 26 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 3,111 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 27 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:

The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 30) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Thu 27th Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 12s
Best Surf 4AM (Wed 2nd Sep)10ft (3.0m) 14s
Most Powerful 4AM (Wed 2nd Sep)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Express Point.

We’ve got a solid stretch of surf lining up, starting Thursday the 27th. The first few days are all about clean, rideable waves, but the real standout is shaping up for Monday the 31st. That’s the one you want to circle.

Thursday morning, August 27th, we’re looking at a clean 3ft groundswell from the southwest, with a nice 12-second period. The wind is a light offshore from the NNW, and the water is sitting at 56°, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s not big, but it’s tidy. That afternoon, the wind shifts to a light cross-offshore from the WNW, keeping things clean. The combined swell energy is moderate (274).

Friday morning, August 28th, the swell picks up to 4ft from the southwest, with a longer 18-second period. The wind is a solid offshore from the NW at 12 mph, and the energy jumps up to a strong 1303. This is a very good session in the making. The afternoon turns a bit messier with a cross-shore wind and a 6ft swell, but it’s still surfable.

Saturday morning, August 29th, the swell drops back to 5ft with a 14-second period, and it’s clean with a cross-offshore breeze. The energy is moderate (954). The afternoon is similar, with a bit more wind.

Sunday morning, August 30th, the swell holds at 5ft, with a 13-second period and a cross-offshore breeze. Energy is moderate (735). The afternoon cleans up nicely with a lighter cross-offshore breeze and a 5ft swell, pushing the energy up to 685. It’s a good, clean option.

Monday, August 31st, is the pick of the bunch. The morning brings a 5ft swell from the southwest with a 15-second period, and a light offshore breeze from the NNW. The energy is strong (1093). Then the afternoon is absolutely glassy—zero wind, perfectly clean 5ft swell. The energy is even higher (1454). This is an excellent session for experienced surfers. The water is still around 56°.

Tuesday, September 1st, gets blown out by strong offshore winds. The swell is there, but it’s a battle to paddle into. Not worth it.

Wednesday, September 2nd, is back on. The morning has a clean 6ft southwest swell with a 14-second period and a moderate offshore breeze. Energy is strong (1290). The afternoon gets a bit too windy.

Thursday, September 3rd, and Friday, September 4th see the swell building. It’s clean but the wind is fresh to strong, making it hard work. The swell hits 8ft on Friday morning, with a 15-second period and a strong offshore wind. The energy is very strong (2199). This is getting into expert territory.

Saturday, September 5th, the wind turns onshore, and the swell is a messy 10ft. Not good for paddling. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday, September 6th, is a near-gale offshore, making the 10ft swell almost impossible to get into. Monday, September 7th, is much the same, with a 10ft swell and strong offshore winds. Too much for anyone but the fittest experts.

The swell stays big through to the 9th, but the wind is often cross or onshore, making it a write-off. By Thursday, September 10th, it drops back to a smaller 5ft swell with a shorter 11-second period. The wind is a light cross-shore, and the energy is moderate (1019). There’s a glimmer of a clean surf on the 11th, but the afternoons are onshore.

So, the real standout is the whole of Monday, August 31st, with that glassy afternoon session. And the Friday morning, August 28th, is also a very good call. The middle of the second week is for experts only, or kite surfers, until the end of the period when it settles down again.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, near gales from the NNW by Tue morning).

Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
2
0
0
2
3
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
SW
12
0.8
SW
12
0.7
SW
19
1.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.5
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
12
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.6
SW
17
1.3
SW
16
1.2
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.8
SW
14
1.9
WSW
14
1.8
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
193
203
369
694
1795
1297
911
650
437
659
609
885
1020
975
1537
864
674
924
1290
1427
1075
Wind (km/h)
10
NNW
5
WNW
20
NW
20
NW
15
SW
20
WSW
15
WNW
20
WSW
20
NW
20
WNW
15
WSW
20
WSW
10
NNW
0
SSW
25
NNW
45
NNW
45
NW
15
W
20
NNW
40
W
35
NW
Wind State
off
cross-off
off
off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
High Tide
11:09AM1.92m
10:38PM1.75m
12:02PM2.00m
11:49PM1.82m
12:46PM2.08m
00:48AM1.94m
1:24PM2.16m
1:38AM2.07m
1:59PM2.23m
2:24AM2.20m
2:33PM2.28m
3:07AM2.31m
3:06PM2.32m
3:49AM2.38m
Low Tide
5:09PM1.14m
5:13AM0.64m
6:09PM1.00m
6:10AM0.61m
6:56PM0.84m
7:00AM0.58m
7:36PM0.65m
7:45AM0.55m
8:13PM0.48m
8:27AM0.54m
8:50PM0.31m
9:07AM0.56m
9:26PM0.18m
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:48
6:48
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:41
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
 mm
1
Temp °C
11
13
12
12
12
11
10
11
11
11
11
11
13
16
15
18
19
14
13
14
13
Feels °C
9
10
9
9
9
7
6
7
7
8
9
9
11
14
11
8
9
8
9
6
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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