Surf Forecasts:
Express Point surf forecast from 30 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 3 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 4,771 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Express Point this week:
The surf forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Express Point in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Express Point over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for us. We’ve got a solid run of south-west swell on the cards, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The wind is going to be the main character in this story, so we’ll need to pick our moments.
The first real action kicks off this Sunday, the 30th of August, at Express Point. It’s an advanced point break, so it’s not for the faint-hearted. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is a full 2° warmer than usual for this time of year – a nice little gift from the ocean. Sunday morning is a bit of a mixed bag, with a 5ft SW swell (13-second period) and a moderate cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy is moderate (736), but the conditions are only marginal. The afternoon is much the same, with a 5ft SW swell. It’s clean, but it’s just not quite on.
Now, Monday the 31st of August is where we start to see some promise. The morning brings a 5ft SW swell (14-second period) with a light cross-offshore wind. The energy is picking up (1090), and the notes say expect very good surf conditions. This is looking like the first real standout. It’s clean, it’s got some push, and the wind is light. The afternoon is a bit of a letdown with a cross-on wind, so get it early.
Tuesday the 1st of September is a write-off. A strong breeze from the NNW is going to ruin the fun. The swell is there, but it’s not worth paddling into. The same goes for Wednesday the 2nd, although the afternoon sees a jump in wave energy (1572) and a fresh offshore wind. The swell hits 6ft, but it’s still a bit of a battle.
Thursday the 3rd of September, the swell is ramping up. We’re looking at 7ft in the morning, climbing to 8ft in the afternoon. The wave energy is strong (2012 in the afternoon). However, the wind is fresh and the conditions are only marginal. This is getting into bigger territory, so it’s for the experienced crew only.
Friday the 4th of September is the big one. The morning delivers a solid 8ft SW swell (16-second period) with a moderate offshore wind. The wave energy is very strong (3172). This is the second standout. The swell is big, the period is long, and the wind is offshore. It’s going to be a big, powerful point break, but it’s going to be clean. The afternoon eases slightly to 8ft, but it’s still a great session. Expect crowds at Express Point, as it’s often busy.
The following week sees a mix of conditions. Saturday the 5th of September has some rain and fresh wind, so it’s a bit of a washout. The swell drops back to 5ft. Sunday the 6th is smaller, around 4ft to 4ft, with moderate wind. It’s clean but not very exciting.
We get another pulse from Tuesday the 8th of September, with a 7ft swell in the morning, but the afternoon turns ugly with an 8ft swell and a strong cross-on wind (4074 energy). That’s a choppy mess.
The next real standout comes on Friday the 11th of September. The morning brings a 4ft SW swell, but with a 20-second period, which is extraordinarily long. The wind is light and cross-off, and the conditions are called excellent for experienced surfers. The wave energy is high (1869). This is a very long-period groundswell, so it’s going to be a treat at a point break like Express Point, but it might be too straight for a beach break. This is a promising, long-range call.
Saturday the 12th of September also has a good morning session with a 5ft SW swell (17-second period) and light cross-off wind. It’s another excellent call for experienced surfers. The run continues into Sunday the 13th of September, with a 4ft swell and light offshores, giving us very good surf.
After that, the energy fades out by Monday the 14th of September as we enter the end of the forecast period.
So, to wrap it up: the best bets are Monday the 31st of August for a clean, solid session, and Friday the 4th of September for the biggest, most powerful swell of the run. The long-range Friday the 11th of September is also a very promising, but less certain, standout.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
659 | 732 | 933 | 978 | 924 | 1502 | 853 | 648 | 1191 | 859 | 1572 | 1712 | 1615 | 2012 | 3493 | 3172 | 2475 | 1983 | 1216 | 1125 | 767 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:24PM2.16m | 1:38AM2.07m | 1:59PM2.23m | 2:24AM2.20m | 2:33PM2.28m | 3:07AM2.31m | 3:06PM2.32m | 3:49AM2.38m | 3:41PM2.34m | 4:32AM2.40m | 4:18PM2.34m | 5:17AM2.38m | 4:57PM2.32m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:36PM0.65m | 7:45AM0.55m | 8:13PM0.48m | 8:27AM0.54m | 8:50PM0.31m | 9:07AM0.56m | 9:26PM0.18m | 9:47AM0.59m | 10:04PM0.09m | 10:27AM0.65m | 10:45PM0.05m | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | ||||||||
6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | |
— | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 11 | 3 | 3 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | — | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
659 | 732 | 933 | 978 | 924 | 1502 | 853 | 648 | 54 | 859 | 1572 | 1712 | 1615 | — | 3493 | 3172 | 2475 | 1983 | 1216 | 1125 | 767 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 21 | SW 19 | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
61 | 60 | 31 | 112 | 299 | — | — | — | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | — | — | — | SSW 20 | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
16 | — | — | — | 38 | — | — | — | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 14 | WSW 6 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 5 | SW 13 | — | NW 4 | — | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | SW 4 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 26 | 1191 | 113 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 2012 | — | 8 | — | 18 | 12 | 11 | 15 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 7 | 95 | 18 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 113 | 120 | 84 | 80 | 79 | 111 | 111 | 84 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 71 | 84 | 483 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Express Point Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Express Point provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Express Point can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Express Point surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Express Point) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Express Point may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Express Point is 38 km (24 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











