Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 23 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, WSW swell with 4,934 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the forecast for Flynns Reef. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s some life in it early on.
The standout window is right now, this Sunday morning. We’ve got a clean 4ft SW swell with a solid 14-second period. That’s proper groundswell, with good energy behind it (726). Wind is light offshore from the east, so it’s going to be glassy. This is the pick of the bunch, no doubt. For an advanced reef break, this is as good as it gets for the next few days. If you can, get out there.
Monday morning will still be fun, with a similar 4ft SW swell and offshore east-northeast winds. It’ll be clean, and there’s still plenty of push. Not quite as good as Sunday, but still a solid session. Monday afternoon, the wind swings southeast and picks up, making things a bit more cross-off and trickier, though the swell bumps up slightly to 4ft with a longer 16-second period.
Tuesday morning looks okay too, with 4ft SW and a cross-off breeze. It’ll be clean, but the swell is starting to ease. After that, we see a downward trend. Wednesday and Thursday drop off significantly, with the swell fading to under 2ft and onshore winds creating poor conditions. That’s the end of the clean, rideable surf for a bit.
Then we hit a rough patch. From Friday through Sunday of next week, the swell picks up substantially, but it’s all over the place. Friday sees a jump to 4ft and 4ft, but it’s cross and choppy. Not great. Saturday gets bigger, but onshore winds and rain make it a mess. By Sunday, we’re looking at 8ft, but it’s lumpy and cross-onshore. That’s big and raw, only for the brave, and honestly, it’s not going to be much fun. The energy values are through the roof—5752 on Sunday morning—but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine.
Monday the 24th looks similar, with a massive 10ft SW swell onshore in the morning. That’s serious, expert-only territory, and even then, it will be a battle. The rest of that week stays messy with strong winds and onshore conditions, steadily dropping in size. Not a good time for a paddle.
The last few days of the month, there’s a slight improvement. Friday the 28th afternoon shows some promise, with the wind going glassy and a 4ft SW swell. That could be a sneaky good session if it cleans up, but it’s a long way out, so temper expectations. The weekend after that eases off, with smaller swells and cross-off winds, but nothing special.
So the long and short of it: get on it now, this morning. That’s the one. Maybe a couple of okay windows early in the week, but then it’s a scrappy, blown-out stretch for a while. The big swells later in the month are just not going to be worth the hassle unless you’re a glutton for punishment. Stay safe, and keep an eye on that Friday afternoon at the end of the month, but don’t hold your breath.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue night, min 9°C on Fri afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Thu afternoon, near gales from the WSW by Fri afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
1108 | 726 | 650 | 632 | 549 | 834 | 715 | 528 | 398 | 339 | 206 | 139 | 134 | 126 | 186 | 261 | 620 | 726 | 2269 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 1:48AM2.24m | 2:17PM2.42m | 2:42AM2.31m | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | 3:35PM2.41m | 4:16AM2.31m | 4:11PM2.36m | 4:59AM2.26m | 4:46PM2.28m | 5:39AM2.18m | 5:20PM2.19m | |||||||
Low Tide | 7:59AM0.34m | 8:33PM0.35m | 8:47AM0.41m | 9:17PM0.24m | 9:31AM0.49m | 9:58PM0.19m | 10:12AM0.59m | 10:36PM0.20m | 10:51AM0.70m | 11:14PM0.25m | 11:28AM0.81m | 11:51PM0.32m | |||||||
— | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 7 |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 16 |
1108 | 726 | 650 | 632 | 549 | 834 | 715 | 528 | 398 | 339 | 206 | 139 | 134 | 114 | 186 | 261 | 620 | 726 | 1517 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 125 | — | 248 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 114 | 104 | 41 | 365 | 522 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | ESE 4 | — | — | SE 6 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | — | SW 19 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 161 | — | 7 | — | — | 2 | 126 | 181 | — | 380 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | E 4 | E 4 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | — | SE 5 | ESE 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | — | — | — | SW 16 |
— | — | — | 7 | 8 | 2 | 9 | — | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | 2269 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 61 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 70 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











