Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 11,137 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 1.3m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
Alright, saddle up. It’s a rough start for Flynns Reef and it stays that way for a long stretch. If you’re hoping for something surfable, you’ve got to wait nearly two weeks. There’s a big gap of no-good conditions from now right through to mid-September.
We kick off the wait starting Friday September 4th. The swell is there—solid SW groundswell at 8ft pushing strong wave energy (3269), but the wind is smashing it. Cross-onshore at 19 mph, lumpy and messy all day. Saturday and Sunday don’t give you a break either, with strong wind and more poor surf. This pattern just keeps rolling: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, all the way through to September 14th. The conditions are either cross-onshore, choppy, or just flat and weak. There’s a few marginal days early on the 8th and 11th, but don’t get excited. On the 15th, it drops to tiny 1ft junk. That’s a solid ten-day stretch of nothing worth paddling for.
Finally, Wednesday September 16th is the real standout. Wednesday morning goes glassy at Flynns Reef (Flynns-Reef). We get 7ft of SW swell with a period of 15 seconds – proper groundswell bump. The water is 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, and the combined energy is kicking (1835). Wind is glassy on the morning, then goes light cross-off in the afternoon. That’s as clean as it gets. The crowd status says “often,” so yeah, expect company if you go. This is an advanced reef break with a solid 7-10ft swell, so this is for experienced surfers only.
Thursday September 17th is a write-off again – strong onshore wind and lumpy. But then hold onto your board for Friday September 18th. The afternoon session gets 10ft of SW swell with a long 19-second period, 6011 wave energy, and clean light cross-off wind. The swell direction matches the optimum SW direction perfectly. It’s large, powerful, and clean. This is the other true standout – possibly the best of the whole run if you’re a strong paddler. Saturday the 19th closes the outlook with a glassy 4ft swell and clean conditions, a nice easy finish.
So if you can wait, the good stuff lands September 16th and 18th. The rest? Not worth wetting your wetsuit.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat night, moderate winds from the WSW by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Wed morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 7 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3269 | 2901 | 2231 | 1456 | 1001 | 2097 | 1024 | 1255 | 772 | 761 | 216 | 651 | 540 | 663 | 1082 | 4402 | 7705 | 8743 | 5240 | 3717 | 2241 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:18PM2.34m | 5:17AM2.38m | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | 9:08AM2.07m | 8:51PM2.00m | 10:18AM2.07m | 10:16PM1.99m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:27AM0.65m | 10:45PM0.05m | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | 4:21PM0.91m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — |
 | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — |
mm | — | — | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 | SW 21 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SSW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 3269 | 2901 | 2231 | 1456 | 1001 | — | 450 | 1255 | 51 | 336 | 71 | 651 | 527 | 480 | 1082 | 2002 | 446 | 8743 | 5240 | 3717 | 2241 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 13 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 6 | SW 21 | — | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 71 | 101 | 246 | 540 | 663 | 80 | 1031 | — | 1038 | 721 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | SW 21 | SSW 20 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | S 26 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 69 | 38 | 61 | 60 | 13 | 673 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NW 4 | N 3 | NNW 4 | W 5 | SW 11 | SW 10 | — | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 7 | — | — | SW 5 | WSW 6 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 12 | 6 | 28 | 104 | 2097 | 1024 | — | 772 | 761 | 216 | — | — | 35 | 169 | 4402 | 7705 | 7175 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 11 | 2 | 22 | 382 | 457 | 264 | 73 | 69 | 73 | 320 | 306 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 451 | 901 | 474 | 126 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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