Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 24 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.7° C
0.6° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 13s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 5,230 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Fri 31st Jul)3ft (0.9m) 13s
Best Surf 4PM (Fri 31st Jul)3ft (0.9m) 13s
Most Powerful 4AM (Wed 29th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next stretch for Flynns Reef. It’s a solid reef setup that likes a good SW groundswell, but man, the wind gods are just not playing ball for the foreseeable future. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

The big story here is a whole lot of swell with terrible wind. For days. We’re talking a solid 3.0m SW groundswell on Friday the 24th with a period of 15 seconds and a massive combined energy of 4111 (strong to very strong), but that strong breeze onshore from the W is going to ruin it. That’s a no-go. That same pattern holds through Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th – the swell is still pumping, but the wind is just trash, making it messy and choppy.

We get a bit of a lull in the swell through Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, but the wind is still cross or cross-on, so it’s all poor. The real punch comes back on Wednesday the 29th of July – another big pulse of 2.5m SW swell at 15 seconds, with combined energy hitting 3185. The wind is a cross-on moderate breeze, which is still a problem. It’s frustrating to watch because the reef is going to be handling that energy, but it’s going to be a lumpy, onshore mess.

You have to wait all the way until Friday the 31st of July for the first real glimmer of hope. The swell drops right down to 0.9m on the afternoon, but the wind goes glassy. That’s a rare, clean window. The period is still a nice 13 seconds, so it’ll be slow, clean, and lined up. It’s tiny, but it’s the only time the conditions are truly good. For a smaller-wave board, that afternoon session is the standout in the whole run.

After that, the swell picks up again, but the wind stays stubborn. Saturday the 1st of August has a 1.2m SW swell with a 16-second period, but it’s a moderate cross-shore. Sunday the 2nd of August has a bigger 1.6m swell with a 17-second period, but the wind is a strong cross-shore, making it lumpy. The same pattern continues right through the first week of August – plenty of SW groundswell energy, but the wind is always cross-on or cross, never clean. The 4th of August Tuesday afternoon shows a 1.8m SW swell with a moderate cross-on wind, just a marginal day.

The biggest swell of the whole run hits on Thursday the 6th of August, a 2.2m SW swell with a 19-second period and combined energy of 4445, which is incredibly powerful. But the wind is a fresh cross-on breeze. That’s a big, powerful, but messy day. If you’re an expert, you might still find a wave, but it’s not going to be pretty.

Honestly, the only real standout for clean, quality surf is that tiny, glassy window on the afternoon of Friday the 31st of July. Everything else is a battle with the wind. The rest of the period is a solid 16 days of onshore or cross-shore wind, just making a mess of some otherwise decent swell. It’s a tough run.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the WNW by Sun afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Tue afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Tue afternoon, light winds from the SW by Wed night).

Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.3
SW
14
2.1
SW
13
2.1
SW
12
1.7
SW
12
1.6
SW
11
1.4
SW
11
1.3
SW
11
1.1
SW
11
1.1
SW
11
1.1
SW
13
1.5
SW
12
2.1
WSW
12
3
SW
14
2.5
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
1.8
SW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.3
SW
13
1.1
SW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
4111
2633
2125
1429
1209
773
606
449
357
298
304
405
666
1269
2925
3185
2038
1152
669
563
373
Wind (km/h)
40
W
30
WNW
40
WNW
35
WSW
25
W
30
WNW
25
WNW
20
W
20
NW
20
NNW
20
NNW
35
N
45
NNW
45
WNW
40
SW
25
SW
20
WSW
20
SSW
15
W
25
WSW
10
WNW
Wind State
on
on
on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
High Tide
6:33PM2.09m
7:51AM1.98m
7:12PM1.98m
8:46AM1.93m
7:57PM1.89m
9:46AM1.91m
8:51PM1.82m
10:50AM1.93m
9:54PM1.78m
11:49AM1.99m
11:02PM1.78m
12:40PM2.07m
00:06AM1.81m
Low Tide
12:44PM0.96m
1:13AM0.41m
1:30PM1.07m
1:58AM0.47m
2:23PM1.16m
2:49AM0.52m
3:25PM1.22m
3:45AM0.55m
4:35PM1.22m
4:45AM0.55m
5:43PM1.17m
5:42AM0.52m
6:42PM1.07m
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:22
5:23
5:24
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:28
 mm
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
Temp °C
11
12
12
13
13
12
13
14
13
14
16
14
14
12
11
10
11
11
11
11
11
Feels °C
2
5
6
5
7
6
9
11
9
10
11
7
5
2
1
4
4
6
7
4
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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