
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 18s period, SW swell with 12,325 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. We've got a mixed bag of a forecast coming up for this spot. The long-range looks promising, but the first half of the window is a real test of patience.
The waiting game is the name of the game early on. We've got a solid southwest groundswell arriving, but it's going to be a bumpy ride for a few days. The first solid surf hits on Friday the 4th, but it's a write-off thanks to strong cross-onshore winds. That sizeable 8ft swell from the SW is wrapping in, but with a 16 mph NW wind, it's just a messy, choppy affair. The combined energy is a massive 3269, but it's all for nothing in those conditions. Saturday and Sunday the 5th and 6th are more of the same—big, jumbled, and blown out. The water temp is about average for the time of year, but you won't be caring about that when you're getting thrashed in the whitewater.
Hold on, though. Things start to turn around on Tuesday the 8th. The morning is looking absolutely glassy. The wind swings to a light N at 3 mph, and that strong SW groundswell (3ft at 18 seconds) is pure energy. The combined energy is a solid 1212, and with those glassy conditions, Flynns Reef will be offering up some seriously clean, long lines. This is a standout session for the more experienced crew, as the long period makes it a proper groundswell. The crowd potential is there, as it's a known spot, but for a Tuesday morning, you might find a quiet corner.
That clean spell is brief, though. Wednesday the 9th turns nasty again with a huge 12ft SW swell and strong cross-shore winds, making it a real mess. But then we get into a promising run from Thursday the 10th through to Saturday the 12th. Thursday is clean and cross-offshore with a solid 10ft SW swell (6992 energy). That's big, powerful, and clean but it's heading into the zone where it's better for experts only. Friday the 11th morning is another glassy winner with a 5ft, 15-second SW swell, and the combined energy is a solid 1062. This is the best mix of size and condition for the slightly smaller day. Then Saturday the 12th is glassy again in the morning with a 4ft, 15-second swell, and the afternoon cleans up too. That's a real run of good fortune.
The second week is a bit of a mixed bag. The 13th and 14th are messy and windy, and the 15th and 16th are a write-off. But then, the real big one shows up. The 17th and 18th of September see a monster 12ft SW groundswell (with an insane 8626 combined energy) but the forecast says it's simply too big for this break. The rip will be wild, and it's a code red for experts only. The 18th afternoon settles down to a still-large 10ft, and the 19th drops back to a more manageable 6ft from the SW, but the wind is back onshore, so it's a choppy finish.
The true standout is the Tuesday the 8th morning session. That glassy, clean, long-period SW groundswell is a gift. For a slightly smaller but still very clean option, keep an eye on Friday the 11th morning. It's a long wait, but it's worth it.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NNW on Sat morning, light winds from the WSW by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, near gales from the SW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 11 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
3269 | 2901 | 2231 | 1456 | 1200 | 1536 | 1754 | 2002 | 748 | 624 | 649 | 671 | 535 | 1537 | 1082 | 4637 | 8385 | 11764 | 7106 | 3717 | 2241 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:18PM2.34m | 5:17AM2.38m | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | 9:08AM2.07m | 8:51PM2.00m | 10:18AM2.07m | 10:16PM1.99m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:27AM0.65m | 10:45PM0.05m | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | 4:21PM0.91m | ||||||||
6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | |
— | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | |
mm | — | — | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 21 | SSW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
3269 | 2901 | 2231 | 1456 | 1200 | — | 450 | 2002 | 688 | 336 | 275 | 671 | 535 | 1537 | 1082 | 1031 | 450 | 11764 | 7106 | 3717 | 2241 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 26 | SSW 18 | — | SSW 19 | — | SSW 16 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | — | 51 | 71 | 69 | 246 | 534 | 975 | 27 | 240 | — | 780 | — | 688 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | S 22 | SSW 20 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 9 | 38 | 61 | 59 | — | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | N 4 | NNW 4 | W 6 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | — | — | — | SW 7 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 6 | — |
— | — | 18 | 40 | 121 | 1536 | 1754 | 1139 | 748 | 624 | 649 | — | — | — | 144 | 4637 | 8385 | 8108 | 5467 | 64 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 11 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 382 | 474 | 314 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 69 | 454 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 320 | 314 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










