Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 7,222 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.3m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into what Flynns Reef has cooking for the next couple weeks.
The first few days are ugly. Starting on the 29th of July, we've got nasty near-gale winds and blown-out junky surf. Don't even bother thinking about it. That whole first week is pretty much a washout.
The first real hope comes on Saturday morning, the 8th of August. The wind finally lays down to a light offshore breeze, giving us some clean, glassy conditions. The swell will be around 4ft from the southwest with a solid 15-second period. It's proper groundswell with a good amount of energy (908). The afternoon will be much the same: 4 to 4ft SW swell with a 16-second period and clean offshore winds. It's not massive, but it'll be smooth and lined-up, perfect for an advanced reef. Water temp is about what you'd expect for this time of year.
After that, the wind gets messy again. By the 9th, the window is already closing, and we go back to lumpy cross-shore conditions through the 10th and 11th with higher energy (1372, 1839) that just makes a mess of the surface.
Your standout here is Saturday, the 8th of August. The wind is spot on, the swell direction matches the reef’s optimum, and the consistency is there. Just keep in mind, it gets crowded at Flynns, but with it looking that clean, it'll be worth fighting for a wave.
Mark that Saturday. The rest of the run is a gamble with the wind.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Tue night, calm by Fri afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Fri night, near gales from the WSW by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2379 | 6449 | 4791 | 2293 | 991 | 480 | 537 | 367 | 309 | 236 | 249 | 940 | 1467 | 1276 | 920 | 705 | 606 | 2098 | 600 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 11:49AM1.99m | 11:02PM1.78m | 12:40PM2.07m | 00:06AM1.81m | 1:23PM2.15m | 1:03AM1.87m | 2:01PM2.23m | 1:54AM1.94m | 2:35PM2.28m | 2:41AM2.02m | 3:07PM2.31m | 3:24AM2.10m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:45AM0.55m | 5:43PM1.17m | 5:42AM0.52m | 6:42PM1.07m | 6:34AM0.50m | 7:30PM0.94m | 7:21AM0.48m | 8:11PM0.80m | 8:05AM0.47m | 8:48PM0.66m | 8:45AM0.49m | 9:23PM0.53m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |  | | |
 | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | -1 | -1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 2 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 581 | — | — | — | 991 | 480 | 537 | 367 | 309 | 236 | 169 | 940 | 1467 | 1276 | 920 | 705 | 606 | 2098 | 600 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 23 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 5 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 18 | 63 | 60 | 249 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | S 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — | SW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 15 | WSW 7 |
| kJ | 2379 | 6449 | 4791 | 2293 | — | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 16 | 7 | 18 | 44 | 974 | 142 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 488 | 314 | 306 | 69 | 10 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 100 | 103 | 73 | 267 | 264 | 314 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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