Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s happening at Flynns Reef. This is a proper advanced reef break that’s fairly exposed to the SW, so it knows how to handle a good swell. The water’s sitting around 56°F right now, which is about normal for this time of year, no real surprises.

The next few days are a bit of a write-off, I won’t sugarcoat it. Wednesday afternoon kicks off with a 7ft SW swell at a long 16 seconds, but it’s blowing 25 km/h from the west straight onshore. That’s a messy scene. The combined energy is still strong (3412), but it’s all for nothing. Thursday and Friday are much the same – solid 8ft to 8ft SW groundswell, but the wind just won’t cooperate, staying onshore or cross-onshore. It’s all poor surf until the weekend.

But then, Saturday morning the 15th is where things start to look up. The swell drops a touch to 6ft from the SW, still a nice 15-second period, but the wind goes light south-easterly at 5 km/h, giving us a clean, cross-off look. The energy is still moderate (1610), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers – and that’s the truth. That’s our first real window, but with 6ft on a reef, this is for the crew who know what they’re doing.

Sunday the 16th through Tuesday the 18th sees the swell ease back to 4ft to 4ft, with that same long-period SW groundswell. The wind stays light and cross-off, giving us clean, surfable waves. The energy drops into the moderate-to-low range (660 to 793), but it’s consistent. Not a standout, but a good run of mellow, clean reef waves.

Wednesday the 19th is tiny, with 2ft to 2ft. It’s clean, but barely surfable. Then Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are a total loss – strong northerly winds, lumpy chop, and near-flat conditions. The energy is pathetic (186 to 235). A real dud.

Now, the good stuff. Saturday the 22nd sees a quick pulse of 6ft from the WSW, but with a short 8-second period and 30 km/h cross-shore winds, it’s a total choppy mess for surfing. That might look more interesting for the kite crew.

The real standout is brewing for Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th. Tuesday afternoon brings a clean 8ft SW groundswell at 14 seconds, with a gentle cross-off breeze from the SSE. The energy is solid (2686) and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. Then Wednesday the 26th cranks it up a notch: 8ft to 10ft SW swell at 15 seconds, with light offshore or cross-off winds, and energy readings up to 3344. That’s proper, powerful groundswell. This is your window for the best waves of the run – but it’s over 8ft, so it’s experts only. The long period means it’ll be clean and powerful on the reef, with long lulls between sets.

By Thursday the 27th, it fades back to 4ft to 5ft, with the wind going glassy in the afternoon. A nice, clean, easy end to the run.

In short, the first few days are a washout. Saturday the 15th is the first clean option for experienced surfers, but the real highlight is Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th – big, clean, powerful groundswell. That’s the one to circle.

Rusty.

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