Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 19s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 4,792 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 8 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 19s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 19s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 19s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the cards for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a good pulse of swell, but the wind is going to call the shots, and it’s not going to be friendly for a lot of it.
It all starts off solid on Wednesday the 8th of July. Wednesday morning brings clean 4ft waves from the SW with a light cross-off breeze. Water temp is 57°, dead average for this time of year. The combined energy is pumping at 1534 (moderate-to-strong), and with a 19-second period, these are long, powerful lines – right up the alley for experienced surfers. That afternoon, the swell lifts to 6ft, still clean with a light SE breeze. This is the standout of the whole outlook. Thursday the 9th keeps it fun with clean 4ft to 4ft waves and light winds, going glassy in the afternoon – that’s a real treat (energy at 533 to 683). Friday the 10th gets a bit trickier as a cross-shore breeze creeps in.
Then the wheels fall off. From Saturday the 11th through to Wednesday the 15th of July, it’s a write-off. Strong winds, cross-onshore, near-gales, and rain. There’s plenty of energy in the water, hitting over 3000 on Sunday the 12th with 10ft waves, but it’s completely blown out. Not for surfing – more like kite fodder.
Thursday the 16th offers a little clean-up with a SE breeze, but the swell drops to a marginal 4ft to 4ft with a moderate breeze, nothing to write home about.
But then, here’s the one to circle on the calendar: Friday the 17th of July. The morning shows 6ft of clean SW groundswell with a light offshore breeze from the E, combined energy at 2154 (strong). That’s excellent for experienced surfers, with those long 18-second lines. It’s a bit further out, so have your fingers crossed, but it’s the real deal in the second week.
After that, things go sour again. From Saturday the 18th through to Thursday the 23rd, it’s marginal to poor. Strong cross-shore winds, chop, and short-period junk. There’s size, with 10ft waves on the 22nd, but the winds and short 10-11 second period make it a mess. Not one for the quiver.
So, the takeaway: hit Wednesday and Thursday this week for the best bet, and keep an eye on Friday the 17th as a promising long-shot. Stay sharp.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Wed morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the N by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sat afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat night, moderate winds from the WNW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 12 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1005 | 1729 | 1109 | 683 | 472 | 943 | 724 | 648 | 472 | 355 | 341 | 1543 | 3189 | 2737 | 1778 | 1890 | 2534 | 2309 | 2839 | 2668 | 4792 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 5:11PM2.27m | 5:54AM2.09m | 5:47PM2.24m | 6:47AM2.13m | 6:28PM2.20m | 7:46AM2.16m | 7:15PM2.16m | 8:51AM2.19m | 8:11PM2.13m | 9:59AM2.23m | 9:16PM2.10m | 11:07AM2.28m | 10:27PM2.11m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:00AM0.64m | 11:38PM0.41m | 11:45AM0.74m | 00:19AM0.31m | 12:34PM0.85m | 1:07AM0.22m | 1:31PM0.96m | 2:01AM0.16m | 2:34PM1.04m | 3:02AM0.11m | 3:44PM1.08m | 4:07AM0.08m | 4:56PM1.04m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | |  | | |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | |
 | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — |
 | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 3 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 5 |
Temp °C | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 1005 | 1729 | 1109 | 683 | 472 | 943 | 724 | 648 | 472 | 355 | 341 | — | — | — | 1778 | 1890 | 2534 | 2309 | 2839 | 2668 | 2590 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SSW 17 | — | ESE 11 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | W 9 | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 21 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 404 | 237 | — | 12 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | 76 | — | — | — | 64 | 72 | 184 | 154 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 19 | — | — | — | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 125 | — | — | — | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 12 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WNW 5 | WNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 24 | 54 | 1543 | 3189 | 2737 | 37 | 34 | 27 | 16 | 16 | 43 | 4792 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 258 | 102 | 258 | 491 | 469 | 469 | 600 | 73 | 61 | 529 | 469 | 557 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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