Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Issued: 9 am 03 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
14.1° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 5 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 17s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 3 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 6,158 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 17s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Sun 5th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 17s
Best Surf 1PM (Sun 5th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 17s
Most Powerful 4PM (Fri 3rd Jul)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming our way.

Straight up, it’s been a tough start. We’ve got a real gap here with nothing rideable from now until the end of Friday, July 4th. The wind is howling out of the west and southwest at 31 mph and 22 mph, just trashing what would otherwise be some serious southwest groundswell. You don't want to be out there.

Things finally start to turn around on Sunday morning, July 5th. It’s not perfect yet, but we’ve got the first real window of clean conditions. Flynns Reef is the only game in town, and it’s our standout early in the period. The swell drops a bit to 7 ft from the SW, but the period stretches out to a very long 17 seconds, bringing proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong at (3945). The real winner here is the wind – a light ESE breeze that’s cross-offshore. That’s going to groom the reef nicely. Sunday afternoon goes even better with a clean 7 ft SSW swell and fresh offshore ESE wind at 19 mph. This is a proper window for experienced surfers. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Monday morning on July 6th is small and clean, with 4 ft from the SW and very long period at 15 seconds. The energy is weak (547) but it’s clean with a light cross-off breeze. Good for fins and a quiet session. Monday afternoon is even smaller and glassy.

The next real standout comes later in the week. On Thursday morning, July 9th, we get a clean 4 ft SW groundswell (15 seconds) with a moderate offshore breeze from the east at 12 mph. Combined energy is moderate (763). The report says “expect very good surf conditions” – and with that offshore wind on a consistent reef break, this is your morning to score. It’s small but clean and lined up.

We have to be patient through some lumpy, windy, and poor-quality days after that. The period from July 11th to 13th is mostly messy with cross-shore winds. July 14th and 15th see a big spike in swell again – 10 ft to 12 ft from the SW – but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore near gale force, so it’s a washout.

Late in the run, on Saturday July 18th, there’s a little cleanup for the small stuff, with 2 ft to 2 ft SW groundswell and light breezes. It’s clean but tiny.

Bottom line: your best bet is Sunday morning, July 5th and Thursday morning, July 9th at Flynns Reef. Both have clean wind, proper SW groundswell, and that reef is going to hold well. The big swells in between are blown out. Pick your windows.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Fri morning, light winds from the NNE by Sun night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
3
Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
1
2
3
3
2
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
14
2.3
SW
13
2.1
SW
13
2.2
SW
15
2.2
SW
17
2
SSW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
0.9
SW
17
1
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.3
SW
18
1.8
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1.1
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
6386
6158
2824
1890
1521
2037
2715
2269
1101
543
407
224
482
492
542
1202
1880
1123
763
472
603
Wind (km/h)
50
W
50
WSW
35
W
35
WSW
30
SW
25
SSE
25
ESE
30
ESE
25
ENE
10
N
5
SE
10
N
10
NNW
10
W
20
S
25
S
20
S
15
E
20
E
15
ENE
15
NE
Wind State
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
cross
cross
cross
off
off
off
cross-off
High Tide
2:28PM2.26m
2:09AM1.90m
3:03PM2.30m
2:54AM1.93m
3:36PM2.32m
3:37AM1.96m
4:08PM2.32m
4:21AM2.00m
4:39PM2.30m
5:06AM2.04m
5:11PM2.27m
5:54AM2.09m
5:47PM2.24m
Low Tide
8:36PM0.88m
8:24AM0.41m
9:15PM0.79m
9:02AM0.44m
9:51PM0.70m
9:40AM0.49m
10:26PM0.61m
10:19AM0.56m
11:01PM0.51m
11:00AM0.64m
11:38PM0.41m
11:45AM0.74m
00:19AM0.31m
rain showers
light rain
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:37
7:37
7:37
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:08
5:09
5:09
5:10
5:10
5:12
5:12
 mm
3
1
Temp °C
13
12
12
12
12
12
10
11
10
11
12
11
10
12
12
11
11
9
10
12
9
Feels °C
3
2
4
4
5
5
4
4
6
9
9
8
6
9
10
5
5
5
5
7
4
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SW
15
2.2
SW
17
2
SSW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
0.9
SW
17
1
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.3
SW
18
1.8
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1.1
SW
16
Energy kJ
2037
2715
2269
1101
543
407
224
482
492
542
1202
1880
1123
763
472
603
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SSW
16
0.9
SSW
16
0.3
SE
5
0.1
SE
5
0.1
SW
20
0.2
SSW
17
0.4
SW
5
0.8
SW
14
0.7
SSW
5
0.6
SSW
7
Energy kJ
1230
469
4
1
15
29
9
221
26
42
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
WSW
19
0.4
SSW
19
Energy kJ
35
142
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
14
2.3
SW
13
2.1
SW
13
1.8
SSW
16
0.7
SE
5
1
SE
4
0.7
ESE
5
0.4
NE
3
0.3
NW
2
0.4
WNW
3
0.7
SW
5
0.7
SSW
5
Energy kJ
6386
6158
2824
1890
1521
1783
30
35
23
4
1
4
25
23
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
3
4
6
5
2
4
4
5
4
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
4
3
3
2
2
Distance (km)
314
776
73
73
451
2
1
48
48
0
0
2
2
2
2
126
2
0
0
0
7
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
2
3
1
2
3
2
4
3
3
2
3
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
5
5
9
5
5
8
4
5
7
4
9
9
8
4
5
9
4
4
4
4
4
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
9
5
9
5
6
8
5
9
7
5
9
9
8
6
5
9
9
9
5
5
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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