
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,815 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s break down what’s happening at Flynns Reef. This is a proper advanced reef break that’s fairly exposed to the SW, so it knows how to handle a good swell. The water’s sitting around 56°F right now, which is about normal for this time of year, no real surprises.
The next few days are a bit of a write-off, I won’t sugarcoat it. Wednesday afternoon kicks off with a 7ft SW swell at a long 16 seconds, but it’s blowing 25 km/h from the west straight onshore. That’s a messy scene. The combined energy is still strong (3412), but it’s all for nothing. Thursday and Friday are much the same – solid 8ft to 8ft SW groundswell, but the wind just won’t cooperate, staying onshore or cross-onshore. It’s all poor surf until the weekend.
But then, Saturday morning the 15th is where things start to look up. The swell drops a touch to 6ft from the SW, still a nice 15-second period, but the wind goes light south-easterly at 5 km/h, giving us a clean, cross-off look. The energy is still moderate (1610), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers – and that’s the truth. That’s our first real window, but with 6ft on a reef, this is for the crew who know what they’re doing.
Sunday the 16th through Tuesday the 18th sees the swell ease back to 4ft to 4ft, with that same long-period SW groundswell. The wind stays light and cross-off, giving us clean, surfable waves. The energy drops into the moderate-to-low range (660 to 793), but it’s consistent. Not a standout, but a good run of mellow, clean reef waves.
Wednesday the 19th is tiny, with 2ft to 2ft. It’s clean, but barely surfable. Then Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are a total loss – strong northerly winds, lumpy chop, and near-flat conditions. The energy is pathetic (186 to 235). A real dud.
Now, the good stuff. Saturday the 22nd sees a quick pulse of 6ft from the WSW, but with a short 8-second period and 30 km/h cross-shore winds, it’s a total choppy mess for surfing. That might look more interesting for the kite crew.
The real standout is brewing for Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th. Tuesday afternoon brings a clean 8ft SW groundswell at 14 seconds, with a gentle cross-off breeze from the SSE. The energy is solid (2686) and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. Then Wednesday the 26th cranks it up a notch: 8ft to 10ft SW swell at 15 seconds, with light offshore or cross-off winds, and energy readings up to 3344. That’s proper, powerful groundswell. This is your window for the best waves of the run – but it’s over 8ft, so it’s experts only. The long period means it’ll be clean and powerful on the reef, with long lulls between sets.
By Thursday the 27th, it fades back to 4ft to 5ft, with the wind going glassy in the afternoon. A nice, clean, easy end to the run.
In short, the first few days are a washout. Saturday the 15th is the first clean option for experienced surfers, but the real highlight is Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th – big, clean, powerful groundswell. That’s the one to circle.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Wed afternoon, light winds from the SE by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
2475 | 5815 | 3039 | 2668 | 2668 | 2475 | 2266 | 2102 | 1610 | 1363 | 1108 | 736 | 726 | 632 | 659 | 793 | 894 | 535 | 472 | 339 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | 1:33PM2.37m | 1:48AM2.24m | 2:17PM2.42m | 2:42AM2.31m | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | 3:35PM2.41m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | 7:05AM0.30m | 7:45PM0.51m | 7:59AM0.34m | 8:33PM0.35m | 8:47AM0.41m | 9:17PM0.24m | 9:31AM0.49m | 9:58PM0.19m | |||||||
— | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | |
5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | |
mm | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
2475 | 3233 | 3039 | 2668 | 2668 | 2475 | 2266 | 2102 | 1610 | 1363 | 1108 | 736 | 726 | 632 | 659 | 793 | 894 | 535 | 472 | 339 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | — | — | SW 18 | — | ESE 4 |
137 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 118 | — | 1 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | — | ESE 4 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | — | 6 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 3 | SE 4 | SE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | SE 5 | — | SE 6 | NE 3 |
800 | 5815 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 5 | — | 8 | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 4 | 69 | 70 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











