Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 11 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 3,666 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 19s. Another secondary swell of 0.8m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Tue 11th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again, let’s talk in feet and miles per hour.
Look, the first week is a total bust. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first five days are just no good. The wind is a mess, mostly cross-onshore and fresh, and the surf quality is poor. It’s a tough start, but hang tight.
We finally get a glimmer of hope on Friday, August 7th. The morning is still a bit lumpy, but by Friday afternoon, the wind swings around to the north at just 3 mph. That’s glassy. The swell is a clean 4 ft from the SW, with a long period of 15 seconds pumping in serious energy (1081). The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty standard for this time of year. This is the standout session. Flynns Reef is a consistent reef break, so it’ll be handling that long-period groundswell beautifully. It’s an advanced spot, and with the crowds being “often,” you’ll have company, but with conditions that clean, it’ll be worth it.
Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are a letdown again – the wind picks back up, and the surf gets messy. Monday the 10th brings a big pulse of swell, over 7 ft, but it’s paired with a strong breeze, so it’s just a big, blown-out mess.
Then we get into the second week, and things get interesting again, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag. From Tuesday the 11th through to Thursday the 13th, the swell is huge – between 8 ft and 12 ft – but it’s all cross-onshore, strong wind, and just messy. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not pretty.
The next real chance comes on Friday, August 14th. The morning has a clean 8 ft SW swell (3517 energy) with an offshore wind from the WNW at 9 mph. That’s a solid, clean wave for the advanced crew. The afternoon is lighter, but the wind shifts to cross-on, so it’s not as good. This is a promising, but less certain, long-range option.
Then, on Sunday, August 16th, we get another glassy window. The afternoon is dead calm, winds at 0 mph, with a 5 ft SW swell (1048 energy). That’s the second real standout. It’s a smaller, cleaner day for the advanced surfer. The period is 14 seconds, so it’s still a quality groundswell.
The rest of the window is a mix of mediocre and poor conditions. So, to sum it up: your two best bets are Friday the 7th afternoon and Sunday the 16th afternoon. Get out there for those glassy windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Wed morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Tue morning). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the N by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 11 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 375 | 778 | 739 | 469 | 175 | 150 | 93 | 155 | 311 | 783 | 705 | 453 | 920 | 864 | 677 | 459 | 371 | 400 | 2639 | 1130 | 2157 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross |
High Tide | 3:38PM2.33m | 4:07AM2.18m | 4:09PM2.33m | 4:50AM2.23m | 4:43PM2.32m | 5:36AM2.25m | 5:19PM2.29m | 6:26AM2.24m | 6:01PM2.26m | 7:22AM2.21m | 6:49PM2.20m | 8:25AM2.16m | 7:46PM2.14m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:57PM0.40m | 10:03AM0.58m | 10:32PM0.29m | 10:44AM0.65m | 11:10PM0.20m | 11:26AM0.75m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:12PM0.85m | 00:41AM0.12m | 1:05PM0.96m | 1:36AM0.14m | 2:06PM1.04m | 2:39AM0.18m | ||||||||
 | |  | |  | |  | | | | |  |  | |  |  | |  | | | | |
 | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — |
mm | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 6 | 3 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | — | SW 10 | SW 9 | SW 8 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 11 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 375 | — | 442 | 220 | 109 | 136 | 92 | 155 | 311 | 783 | 705 | 453 | 920 | 864 | 677 | 459 | 371 | 400 | 2639 | 1130 | 2157 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 5 | WSW 4 | SW 14 | SW 7 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 13 | SW 18 | — |
| kJ | 320 | — | 69 | 134 | 167 | 150 | 15 | 7 | 248 | 44 | 303 | 437 | — | — | — | — | — | 160 | 269 | 973 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 19 | SSW 18 | SW 16 | SW 12 | — | — | WSW 6 | SW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 21 | SSW 19 | SSW 18 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 65 | 175 | 30 | 93 | 49 | — | — | 24 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 44 | 145 | 61 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | SW 12 | SW 10 | SW 10 | — | SW 5 | NW 2 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | W 6 | — | N 3 | — | N 3 | N 3 | N 4 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 4 | NNW 4 |
| kJ | 14 | 778 | 739 | 469 | — | 45 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 49 | — | 8 | — | 2 | 5 | 19 | 91 | 74 | 12 | 35 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 75 | 84 | 70 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 61 | 73 | 73 | 61 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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