Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid pulse of southwest groundswell rolling in, but for the first few days, the wind is going to be working against us. It’s not a total write-off, but you’re going to have to be patient and pick your moments. The real standout is further out, so keep that in mind.

The first day of real surf on offer is Tuesday the 11th. We’re looking at a clean 3.6ft of southwest swell, but the wind is up from the NNW at 15 mph, and it’s cross-on. It’s going to be choppy and a bit of a mess at Flynns Reef. Not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate for a wet suit session. The water’s at 55.6°, which is right about normal for this time of year.

Wednesday the 12th is a write-off, honestly. The swell jumps up to 5.6ft and then 6.9ft, but the wind is howling from the west, straight onshore, at 25 mph in the morning and 15 mph in the afternoon. This is not surfable; it's just a washing machine. The combined energy is strong, and it’s all for nothing with that wind.

Thursday the 13th stays big and ugly. 8.2ft of southwest swell with a 16-second period, but that onshore west wind at 19 mph is just going to destroy it. It’s a grumpy, blown-out mess. On Thursday afternoon it drops a touch to 7.5ft and the wind backs off a little to 12 mph, but it’s still onshore and lumpy. It's a skip.

Friday the 14th is more of the same, with 7.2ft of swell and westerly winds, onshore in the morning and cross-on in the afternoon. It’s still poor, but the energy is starting to trend down. It’s not a day to get excited about. Saturday the 15th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell drops to a more manageable 6.2ft, and the wind finally swings around to the south-southwest, becoming a light cross-shore at 6 mph. It’s not perfect, but it’s a big step in the right direction. This is a window for the better surfers, but it’s still a bit lumpy.

Now, the real standout is Sunday the 16th. The swell eases to a clean 4.6ft from the southwest, period at 14 seconds, and the wind goes light and variable, NNE at 3 mph in the morning, making it cross-off. The call is for “very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer in the near term. The energy is moderate, but the clean, glassy conditions will make it feel twice as good. Get out there early.

Monday the 17th also looks good. A 3.6ft to 4.3ft southwest swell with light, clean winds from the NNE and SSE. It’s going to be clean and fun, especially in the afternoon. The energy is down a bit, but the quality will be there.

After that, we’ve got a bit of a lull. Tuesday the 18th drops to 3.6ft and then 3ft, and the energy is weak. The wind is light and offshore in the afternoon, which is nice, but the swell just isn't there. The next couple of days, the 19th and 20th, are small and weak, with surf around 2ft. It’s a flat spell for sure.

The swell tries to pick back up around Friday the 21st, with 3.9ft on the way, but it’s not until Saturday the 22nd that it gets back to a similar size, with 4.3ft. The wind is the problem then, it’s onshore from the north and cross-chop, so the quality is going to suffer. That period through to the 23rd is mushy and windy, not really worth the drive.

Now, here's the long-range tease. Monday the 24th, a week and a half out, the models are showing a big pulse of energy hitting on the 26th. It’s a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt, but the call is for 6.9ft of southwest swell with an offshore ESE wind at 19 mph. That’s a proper clean, powerful day for Flynns Reef (Big Island). The energy is forecast to be massive, and if that wind holds, it could be the standout of the whole window. But I can’t stress enough, that’s a long way out, so treat it as promising, not a sure thing.

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