Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for us.

We’re looking at a pretty frustrating stretch ahead, to be honest. The first few days are a write-off. Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are a complete mess with strong onshore and cross-shore winds, making a mess of the 5ft to 6ft of SW swell. The energy is there, with readings like 1870 (moderate energy) but the wind is just tearing it apart. We then get a massive pulse of swell on Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th, with heights pushing 7ft to 10ft, but the wind stays on it or cross-on, ruining any chance of decent waves. The energy values are huge, hitting 7523 (very strong wave energy) on Thursday afternoon, but it’s all for nothing with the wind. That’s too big for beginners anyway, and with that wind, even the experts are going to struggle.

The first hint of a window opens up on Friday the 14th. The morning sees 8ft of SW swell with a 17-second period, but the wind is still cross-on. The energy is 4095 (strong wave energy), making it a marginal call. It’s big, powerful, and the period is long, which is good for the reef, but the wind is going to make it a choppy, challenging session.

The first real standout of the forecast arrives on Sunday the 16th. The morning is looking clean with a light offshore breeze from the east. We’ll have 5ft of SW swell wrapping in with a 14-second period. The energy is a moderate 970. This is the best we’ve seen by a long shot. The wind will be clean, and the reef will be working. It’s not a monster, but it’s a proper, rideable size. Expect some crowds at Flynns Reef, as it’s often busy when it’s good. The water temperature is about average for this time of year.

The next decent window looks like Monday the 24th. The afternoon turns glassy with a light NNE breeze and 5ft of SW swell. The energy is moderate at 1016. This is a promising call, but it’s over a week away, so keep an eye on the forecasts. Then, on Tuesday the 25th, we get a quick pulse of 6ft of WSW swell. The period is short, only 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell – not the best shape. But the wind is offshore and light, so it could be a fun, clean session for a short board.

Other than those two or three specific windows, the rest of the 16-day run looks pretty bleak. Gaps of several days go by with nothing but wind and chop. The latter half of the second week is dominated by northerly winds, which create a lumpy, cross-to-onshore mess for the small, weak swell.

So, to sum it up: wait for Sunday the 16th morning for the best bet on a classic, clean reef break. The Monday the 24th glass-off is the other one to keep an eye on.

Rusty.

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