Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 5,059 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 2.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.3m 9s period and expected on Monday (Aug 10) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the cards for Flynns Reef.
The first week is a tough one. From Wednesday, August 5th right through to Thursday, August 13th, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. The winds are all over the place – mostly onshore or cross-onshore – and the conditions are lumpy and messy. You’ll see some swell, but the wind is just ruining it. Don’t bother.
The one bright spot in that first week is Friday afternoon, August 7th. The wind goes offshore from the east at just 3 mph, cleaning things right up. You’ll get a 1.4m SW groundswell with a long 15-second period, and the energy is solid. It’s a reef break for advanced surfers only, and it’ll be consistent. Crowds are possible, so time it right.
Then it’s back to the grind. From Saturday the 8th through to Tuesday the 18th, it’s strong winds, messy seas, and poor surf. There’s a massive 13ft swell on Thursday the 13th, but with fresh onshore winds, it’s a blown-out mess. That kind of size and wind is more for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddle board.
The real payoff is at the end. On Wednesday afternoon, August 19th, the wind drops to glassy from the WSW at 3 mph. You’ve got a 5ft SW swell with a 15-second period and moderate energy. The conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. This is the session to circle on your calendar – clean, lined-up reef waves.
Thursday afternoon, August 20th, also goes glassy with a light north wind at 3 mph, giving you clean 4ft SW swell at 15 seconds. A good backup if you miss the Wednesday window.
Water temp is around 56°F, which is about average for this time of year. Nothing wild.
So, to keep it short: the first week is mostly a bust. Hit Friday the 7th if you’re keen. Otherwise, wait for that Wednesday and Thursday, August 19th and 20th. That’s where the real fun is.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu afternoon, light winds from the E by Fri afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 38mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NNW on Sat morning, severe gales from the WSW by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 21 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 134 | 175 | 166 | 175 | 242 | 1255 | 820 | 882 | 453 | 909 | 783 | 598 | 327 | 253 | 623 | 5059 | 3859 | 1953 | 736 | 577 | 947 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:09PM2.33m | 4:50AM2.23m | 4:43PM2.32m | 5:36AM2.25m | 5:19PM2.29m | 6:26AM2.24m | 6:01PM2.26m | 7:22AM2.21m | 6:49PM2.20m | 8:25AM2.16m | 7:46PM2.14m | 9:34AM2.14m | 8:56PM2.08m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:03AM0.58m | 10:32PM0.29m | 10:44AM0.65m | 11:10PM0.20m | 11:26AM0.75m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:12PM0.85m | 00:41AM0.12m | 1:05PM0.96m | 1:36AM0.14m | 2:06PM1.04m | 2:39AM0.18m | 3:18PM1.08m | 3:48AM0.22m | |||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  | |  | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — |
mm | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 35 | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 6 | SW 5 | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 18 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SSW 19 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 134 | 91 | 38 | 175 | 242 | 497 | 820 | 882 | 453 | 909 | 783 | 598 | 327 | 253 | 416 | 123 | 119 | 1953 | 736 | 577 | 947 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 20 | WSW 14 | SW 7 | SSW 7 | SW 18 | SSW 6 | — | — | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 21 | ESE 9 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 65 | 130 | 166 | 93 | 15 | 268 | 54 | 30 | 432 | 3 | — | — | 52 | 51 | 623 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 5 | SE 10 | SSW 18 | SSW 7 | SW 20 | SSW 6 | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SSW 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 40 | 175 | 150 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 40 | 136 | 15 | — | — | — | — | 23 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 6 | — | WSW 5 | NW 3 | W 4 | SW 18 | W 7 | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 3 | N 4 | N 4 | N 4 | NNW 4 | SW 19 | SW 17 | — | NNW 4 | NW 5 | NW 4 |
| kJ | 120 | — | 61 | 2 | 12 | 1255 | 66 | — | — | 7 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 35 | 5059 | 3859 | — | 37 | 47 | 10 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 73 | 49 | 4 | 10 | 100 | 61 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 94 | 94 | 69 | 314 | 73 | 61 | 258 | 451 | 451 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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