
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 9,743 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Thu 10th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Well, grab a coffee, because the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag. For the first week, we're mostly watching from the shore, but the second half of the period cranks up for those who can handle it. We're looking at Flynns Reef, a reef break for advanced crew only.
Right now, the water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year – nothing to write home about on that front.
The first real action kicks off on Saturday, September 12th. The morning at Flynns Reef is still just marginal with a 6ft SW swell and a light cross-shore breeze that's keeping things a bit bumpy. The combined energy is moderate at 1513. But the afternoon change is where it gets interesting. The wind shifts to a light cross-offshore breeze, the 6ft SW swell cleans right up, and with a period of 17 seconds, you're getting some proper groundswell energy (combined energy now 2516). This is excellent surf for the experienced surfer, no doubt about it.
Sunday the 13th keeps that good form rolling. Clean conditions again with a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is a consistent 6ft from the SW in the morning, dropping a touch to 5ft by the afternoon. It's still very good, quality waves on offer.
After that, we hit a poor run through the middle of the week. Monday and Tuesday (14th and 15th) are all messy, onshore winds and chop – to be avoided.
But hold on to your board shorts because the highlight is coming up. On Thursday, September 17th, we get a fresh pulse of SW swell, pushing 8ft, with a very long period of 17 seconds. That's serious groundswell. The combined energy is strong at 3289. The morning session sees a light cross-offshore breeze, absolutely clean conditions. This is big, powerful stuff – 8ft at this break is expert territory only. The long period will make it hollow and fast on the reef, but paddling out will be easier between the longer set gaps.
Then on Friday the 18th, it's a similar story, but even cleaner. Another excellent morning session with a 8ft SW swell, 16-second period, and light cross-offshore winds. The afternoon is just as good, with the wind dropping to nearly glassy and the swell easing slightly to 7ft. The combined energy is still strong at 2179. This is the top pick of the whole outlook.
In a nutshell: the first week is a write-off until the weekend of the 12th and 13th, which offer some nice, clean, manageable waves. But the real standout, the one you want to plan for, is Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th. That's when the ocean wakes up. It's for experts only at that size on a reef, but for crew who can handle it, it'll be a proper session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Sat night, calm by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 9°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1456 | 1096 | 2443 | 1680 | 1063 | 357 | 761 | 240 | 701 | 535 | 1555 | 1297 | 4467 | 7199 | 9633 | 7698 | 6323 | 2548 | 1692 | 1421 | 1672 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | 9:08AM2.07m | 8:51PM2.00m | 10:18AM2.07m | 10:16PM1.99m | 11:22AM2.11m | 11:35PM2.06m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | 4:21PM0.91m | 4:47AM0.51m | 5:32PM0.76m | ||||||||
6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | |
— | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | |
mm | 1 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
1456 | 1096 | — | 1680 | 1063 | 357 | 341 | 128 | 701 | 535 | 1555 | 1297 | 2299 | 424 | 9633 | 7698 | 6323 | 2548 | 1692 | 1421 | 1672 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SSW 7 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 13 | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 6 | WSW 21 | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 105 | 51 | 71 | 114 | 246 | 534 | 789 | 52 | 562 | — | — | 559 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | SW 21 | WSW 20 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | — | SSW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 69 | 256 | 61 | 59 | — | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | W 5 | SW 11 | — | — | SW 6 | SW 12 | SW 7 | — | — | — | WSW 6 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — |
39 | 74 | 2443 | — | — | 86 | 761 | 240 | — | — | — | 141 | 4467 | 7199 | 6475 | 5406 | 4103 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 492 | 457 | 314 | 69 | 2 | 61 | 84 | 126 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 69 | 572 | 1347 | 61 | 73 | 306 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










