Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,333 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down this 16-day window for Flynns Reef.
Honestly, the first week is a proper bum-out. The swell is there, but the wind is just relentless. Through the first weekend and into the middle of the next week, it’s all onshore or cross-onshore, with a fresh breeze mucking everything up. The water is lumpy, choppy, and messy. You’ve got a solid 10ft SW swell on Friday the 24th with a 15-second period, but a 22 mph W wind is just tearing it up. The combined energy is massive at 3929, but it’s a total loss. Saturday the 25th is the same story, and Sunday the 26th is a bit smaller but still choppy and cross-onshore. This whole first week is a washout.
Things get a whole lot better as we head into the second week. The wind starts to cooperate, and the swell holds from the SW, which is exactly what this reef wants. The real standout is shaping up to be Monday the 3rd of August. That morning we’re looking at a clean 7ft SW swell with a 17-second period, and the wind is a light offshore breeze from the E at 6 mph. The combined energy is a powerful 2652. This is top-tier, expert-level surf – long, clean lines, proper groundswell wrapping around the reef. The afternoon is a bit smaller at 6ft, but still glassy and clean. That’s your best bet of the whole stretch.
The day before, Sunday the 2nd of August, is also worth a look. The afternoon session should be solid with a 7ft SW swell and a 17-second period, and the wind goes clean cross-offshore from the SE at 12 mph. The energy is 3095, and it’s clean. It’s a good option, but Monday is the clear winner.
After that, the surf drops off hard. Tuesday the 4th of August has some clean, small waves around 4ft, and the wind is light, so it’s rideable but nothing to get excited about. Then it gets tiny into the 5th and 6th, with waves around 2ft to 3ft. The 6th of August afternoon does have a glassy spell, which is nice, but it’s small.
The water temperature is sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
So, the bottom line: don’t even look at the first week. The second week, specifically Monday the 3rd of August, is your one true standout. It’s the only day in the whole 16 days that’s really firing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, moderate winds from the W by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 10 | SW 10 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3929 | 4631 | 2371 | 1521 | 2113 | 882 | 515 | 871 | 432 | 371 | 377 | 465 | 473 | 1162 | 2622 | 2326 | 2981 | 999 | 710 | 537 | 502 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | 8:46AM1.93m | 7:57PM1.89m | 9:46AM1.91m | 8:51PM1.82m | 10:50AM1.93m | 9:54PM1.78m | 11:49AM1.99m | 11:02PM1.78m | 12:40PM2.07m | 00:06AM1.81m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | 2:23PM1.16m | 2:49AM0.52m | 3:25PM1.22m | 3:45AM0.55m | 4:35PM1.22m | 4:45AM0.55m | 5:43PM1.17m | 5:42AM0.52m | 6:42PM1.07m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — |
 | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — |
mm | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | SW 12 | — | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | — | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
| kJ | — | 2633 | 2371 | — | 1209 | — | 515 | 513 | 432 | 371 | 377 | 465 | 473 | 1162 | — | 2326 | 2981 | 999 | 710 | 537 | 502 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | — | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WNW 4 | WSW 10 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | SW 12 | — | SW 14 | — | NW 3 | — | — |
| kJ | 3929 | 4631 | 2074 | 1521 | 2113 | 882 | 9 | 871 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 21 | 2622 | — | 1838 | — | 1 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 73 | 101 | 73 | 73 | 4 | 70 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 457 | 469 | 69 | 2 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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