Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Flynns Reef.

First up, this run is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got swell on the table, but the wind and conditions aren’t going to play nice for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so not much drama there.

The real window opens up on Friday afternoon, July 17th. That’s your standout. We’ve got a clean 5ft SW groundswell rolling in with a long 16-second period, and the wind goes glassy – just a slight air from the NNW. That combo is going to turn Flynns Reef into a beauty. The combined energy is solid at (1330), so there’s some proper push behind it. This is an advanced reef set-up, so it’s not for learners, but if you’ve got the skills, this is the session to circle. You might want to keep an eye on the crowd situation – it’s ‘often’ busy here, but when it’s this clean, a few extra boards in the water is just part of the deal.

Thursday the 16th is a write-off. We’ve got a 6ft SW swell at 15 seconds, but it’s cross-on with a 6 mph SW breeze, and the energy is high at (1480), but the quality is marginal. The tide is going to mess with it, and the wind won’t let it clean up.

Saturday the 18th drops off a notch. Smaller swell around 4-5ft, still some SW direction and a decent 14-second period, but we’re stuck with a light cross-on breeze both morning and afternoon. It’s a flat, choppy surface, and the energy drops to (656-791). Not worth getting out of bed for.

From Sunday the 19th right through to Wednesday the 23rd, it’s a pretty grim stretch. Swell tanks down to under 3ft with short periods, and the wind is either cross or cross-on from the NNW, often moderate to fresh. The combined energy dips into the low hundreds (221-384). There’s just no juice, and the surface is ugly. Don’t bother.

Now, Thursday the 23rd through to Saturday the 26th – here’s where it gets a bit rowdy. Swell comes back up, and it’s big. We’re looking at 8ft up to 10ft from the WSW and SW, with some seriously long-period groundswell (14-18 seconds). The combined energy rockets up into the thousands (883 to 3484), so there’s a heap of water moving. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is howling. Onshore, near gale strength, and then cross-on with strong breezes. It’s going to be a washing machine. This is expert territory only, and honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 27th cranks up even more: 10ft SW at 17-18 seconds, and the energy peaks at (5147) and then (9481) in the afternoon. That’s a serious, pumping groundswell. But it’s howling onshore and rain is likely. Total mess for a surfboard. If you’re on a foil or a kite, you might be in heaven.

Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th keep the energy high (1328-1610) with 6-7ft SW swell, but it’s onshore and messy. No good.

Then, a little glimmer near the end. Thursday the 30th afternoon: the wind drops to dead calm, glassy, with a 4ft SW swell at 13 seconds. The combined energy is (727), and conditions are described as ‘expect very good surf conditions’. It’s not a monster, but it’s clean, and after that run of wind, it’ll feel like a holiday. That’s your second-best session, but it’s a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed.

Friday the 31st, we’re back to small, messy, and cross-shore. Not a way to finish.

So, to sum it up: Friday afternoon July 17th is your one true standout. Glassy, solid, long-period SW groundswell at Flynns Reef. Get on it. The Thursday afternoon July 30th glass-off is the only other thing that looks promising, but it’s a lottery that far out.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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