
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 16 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,431 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's shaping up for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, with some real potential if you're patient.
The overall pattern is that we've got plenty of swell energy on the way – this reef is exposed to the southwest and it's going to cop it. But the wind is going to mess things up for a lot of the time. The good news is, there's a standout window that looks absolutely mint, especially if you're an experienced surfer.
Water temp is sitting at 57°F – that's about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so you might get away with a thinner wetsuit for the first session or two.
This week is a write-off, I'm not gonna lie. Saturday the 12th has some size – 6ft of SW groundswell (16-second period) – with a light breeze, but the forecast says it's "marginal" and the scores are low. Sunday and Monday get messy with fresh to moderate breezes, dropping swell, and chop. Tuesday the 15th is an absolute no-go; we've got rain showers and a near gale with 10ft of onshore slop. The combined energy is enormous (3140), but it's completely blown out.
Then it gets big. Wednesday the 16th sees 12ft of SW swell (14-second period), but it's just too big for this spot, and the cross-shore wind makes it lumpy. The energy reading is huge (6972) – that's serious power – but it's for experts only, and even then, the conditions aren't clean.
We get a bit of a break in the chaos Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, but it's either cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the quality low. There's a glimmer on Saturday the 19th with some size (5ft) but 25 mph cross-shore winds ruin it.
The real standout is Tuesday, the 22nd of September. Here's your window. Morning session is the one: we've got a clean 10ft SW groundswell (17-second period) with a gentle offshore breeze from the east. That's the recipe for perfection at a reef break like Flynns. The combined energy is over 5000 – that's proper, powerful groundswell. The long period (17 seconds) means those waves will be holding their shape beautifully here on the reef, with long lulls between sets making paddling out easier. This is advanced territory, for experienced surfers only – the swell size and power demand respect. The afternoon stays solid at 8ft with a cross-off breeze, still clean, but the morning is the pick.
After that, the breeze turns cross-shore and onshore again from the 23rd to the 26th, dropping the quality back down, before a final little pulse on Sunday the 27th with 8ft of very long-period swell (18 seconds) and a light breeze, but the tide and wind alignment look questionable.
So, to keep it simple: your best bet by a country mile is Tuesday morning the 22nd at Flynns Reef. Get there early for the offshore, 10ft, and jaws-like lines. It's a standout. Everything else in the 16-day run is compromised by wind or blown out entirely. Keep your eyes on that Tuesday window.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Warm (max 21°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat morning, strong winds from the WSW by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1402 | 1216 | 820 | 606 | 525 | 415 | 224 | 176 | 82 | 1983 | 3140 | 3373 | 4431 | 3866 | 1344 | 1196 | 765 | 503 | 485 | 754 | 954 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | cross |
High Tide | 12:16PM2.17m | 00:42AM2.17m | 1:04PM2.24m | 1:37AM2.28m | 1:46PM2.28m | 2:25AM2.36m | 2:26PM2.30m | 3:08AM2.39m | 3:03PM2.30m | 3:48AM2.37m | 3:38PM2.27m | 4:26AM2.32m | 4:12PM2.21m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:30PM0.57m | 6:53AM0.53m | 7:20PM0.40m | 7:43AM0.54m | 8:04PM0.27m | 8:28AM0.56m | 8:45PM0.19m | 9:09AM0.59m | 9:23PM0.17m | 9:46AM0.64m | 9:59PM0.19m | 10:22AM0.71m | 10:35PM0.25m | ||||||||
6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | |
— | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 16 |
Feels °C | 14 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 16 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
1402 | 1216 | 820 | 606 | 525 | 415 | 224 | 176 | 82 | 322 | — | — | 4431 | 3866 | 1344 | 1196 | 765 | 503 | 485 | 754 | 954 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 5 | SW 22 | SSW 19 | SSW 18 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 18 | 37 | 61 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 4 | N 3 | NW 3 | WNW 3 | WSW 6 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 |
— | — | — | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 63 | 1983 | 3140 | 3373 | 2541 | 2360 | 96 | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 69 | 73 | 451 | 686 | 264 | 264 | 126 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










