Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Flynns Reef. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but we’ve got some real moments to get excited about, so let’s break it down.

The overall pattern is frustrating. There’s plenty of swell energy on the way, but for most of the next two weeks, the wind is just going to shank it. We’ll see a lot of lumpy, cross-onshore junk that’s more of a headache than a session. But there are a few clean windows, and one absolute gem right at the end.

Flynns Reef (reef break) is our only spot, and it’s a consistent, fairly exposed reef that loves a SW swell. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

The first real chance comes on Monday the 17th afternoon. The swell is 4ft from the SW, with a solid 16-second period (groundswell). The combined energy is sitting at 834 (moderate). The wind is a SE cross-off at 12 mph, which is clean. It’s a small window, but it’s rideable. The score is marginal though, so keep expectations in check.

Tuesday the 18th morning is a better call. The swell drops a touch to 4ft, still SW, with a 15-second period. The combined energy is 821 (moderate). The wind is a NE cross-off at 9 mph, and the forecast is for very good surf. This is a solid morning for a more experienced surfer looking for a clean, lined-up reef. The Tuesday afternoon is smaller but still clean with a 3ft swell and 14-second period.

Then the wind turns ugly. From Wednesday the 19th morning through to Monday the 24th morning, it’s a relentless onslaught of strong to fresh breezes from the north and northwest, creating choppy, lumpy, cross-onshore junk. The swell stays in the 2ft to 6ft range, but the quality is shot. The Saturday the 22nd sees a bigger 6ft to 8ft SW swell, but with strong onshore winds, it’s a complete mess. This is a kite surfer’s playground, not a paddle surfer’s, at that size with that wind.

We get a brief reprieve on Monday the 24th afternoon. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the SW, and the swell is a clean 4ft from the SW with a 14-second period. The combined energy is 626 (moderate). This is a great little session for a glassy evening surf.

The next good window is Tuesday the 25th afternoon. Again, glassy conditions with the wind swinging to ESE at 3 mph, and the swell is 3ft from the SW with a 12-second period. Combined energy is 366 (moderate). Clean and small, good for a grovel.

From Wednesday the 26th through to Sunday the 30th, it’s back to the same old story. Strong winds from the west and northwest, with a few bigger pulses of swell on the 28th and 30th. The 28th sees a 7ft WSW swell with a 13-second period and a combined energy of 2949 (strong), but it’s onshore and strong. The 30th has a 7ft SSW swell with a 16-second period and 2606 (strong) energy, but again, onshore. These are expert-only, blown-out walls of water.

The standout. Monday the 31st of August morning is the one to circle. The wind is glassy from the East at 3 mph. The swell is 4ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1398 (moderate to strong). The forecast says excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. This is the cleanest, most powerful, and most lined-up window of the entire forecast. For a reef break like Flynns, the long period SW groundswell with glassy conditions is a dream. The crowd factor is that it’s “often” busy, so expect company, but for that quality, it’ll be worth it.

The first week of September sees a return to cleaner, smaller swells, with a 4ft to 4ft SW swell on the 1st, but the wind is cross-off, not glassy, so it’s good but not as special as that 31st morning.

So, to sum it up: the next two weeks are mostly a write-off thanks to the wind, but there are a few clean, glassy windows. The absolute best on offer is the morning of Monday the 31st of August. That’s the one you want to get out of bed for.

Rusty.

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