Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, this is Rusty here, and we’re looking at a tricky 16-day stretch for Flynns Reef. This spot is an advanced reef break that's consistent and fairly exposed to the SW, so when it lines up, it’s a proper wave. The water is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year – nothing to complain about there.

We kick things off on Friday, the 10th of July. It’s not a classic start, but there’s some hope. Friday morning we’ve got a clean 4ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period, and the energy is moderate at 724. The wind is a light cross-shore from the north at 9 mph, so there’s a slight bump, but it’s rideable. The afternoon cleans right up – wind drops to 3 mph and goes cross-offshore. The swell drops just a touch to 4ft, but with that long-period groundswell and glassy conditions, it goes from marginal to clean. That Friday afternoon is the only real standout in this outlook – a proper session if you can get out.

Now, brace yourselves. From Saturday the 11th all the way through to Thursday the 16th, the window slams shut. We get hammered by strong winds – Friday through Monday sees fresh to strong breezes, and by Sunday the 12th, we’ve got a near gale blowing. Swell sizes jump up to 10ft or more during that period, but the wind is cross-on or onshore, making it a complete mess. That Sunday brings a big 10ft SW swell with energy readings in the thousands (2327 to 2549), but it’s blown-out and unrideable. Monday and Tuesday are the same story – big energy (up to 9046) but with onshore winds and rain. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are still marginal. The swell drops back to 4ft to 7ft, but the wind stays cross-on, so it’s choppy. Nothing to get excited about.

Then on Thursday the 16th of July, in the afternoon, we get a little gift. The wind goes glassy – dead calm from the south at 3 mph – and the swell is a clean 4ft from the SW with that lovely 14-second period. The energy is moderate (649), and conditions are clean. It’s not a huge swell, but for a shallow reef break like this, a 4ft groundswell with glassy wind is proper.

After that, the rest of the forecast through to the 25th is mostly poor. Winds pick up again, staying cross or cross-on, and the swell fades to tiny 2ft to 4ft with weak energy. The 20th of July has a 3ft swell but with a 17-second period, which is very long period, and strong cross-shore winds – not ideal. There’s nothing else worth chasing.

So here’s the bottom line: Friday the 10th afternoon is the best on offer – clean, glassy, with a long-period SW groundswell at 4ft. That’s your window. Thursday the 16th afternoon is a close second with glassy conditions and a clean 4ft. After that, we’re looking at a long stretch of poor or marginal surf that runs right through the second week. It’s a tough run, but forecasts can change.

Stay patient, and don’t sleep on that Friday afternoon session.

Rusty.

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