Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a solid window of surf on Saturday, but then things get blown out and messy for a stretch. The real standout is going to be the clean, bigger swell window late in the period. There’s a bit of a lull in between, so don't expect much if you're looking for waves mid-week.

First up, Saturday the 12th at Flynns Reef. It’s a bit of a tease, you know? The swell is there, about 6ft from the SW with a long 16-second period. Combined energy is strong at 1402, so there’s definitely power in the water. The morning is cross-shore with a light breeze, which is passable, but it’s the afternoon that has the goods. The wind swings to a light SE cross-off, the wave comment is clean, and the swell drops slightly to 5ft but holds that long 15-second period. It’s a decent session but we’re a bit held back by the overall score and the tide being questionable. Still, this is your best bet for the first week.

Then we hit a wall. Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are poor. A fresh breeze from the N and NNW just chops it all up, and the swell drops off with it. The combined energy drops hard too, down to 608 and then 242. It’s not worth paddling out for that.

Tuesday the 15th is a write-off. The wind is up to 25 mph, cross-onshore, and the sea is messy. The swell does build, reaching up to 10ft in the afternoon but it’s unrideable for a wave count. With that much wind and chop, you’re better off looking at kites. The energy is strong at 1929 and 3438, but it's all for naught with that wind.

Wednesday the 16th is a big swell day, but it's not clean. We’re looking at 8ft to 10ft of SW swell, with energy readings over 5500. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy. It’s big, but it’s only for the experts and even for them, it’ll be a battle. This is definitely in the too-big and too-messy category for most.

After that, the energy drops and so does the quality. Thursday the 17th through Sunday the 20th is a poor run. The swell stays in the 4ft to 6ft range, but the wind is constantly cross-onshore or just messy. There’s a near gale on the 20th with 31 mph winds, and the period drops to 8 seconds on that afternoon. That's just blown out, no two ways about it.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. We have a big gap of poor surf for about a week, and then we see a promise of better things.

Monday the 21st sees the wind drop to a light breeze, with a cross-off SE wind in the afternoon. The swell builds to 8ft from the SW with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is strong at 3287 and the comment is "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is the standout. This is the one you circle on the calendar. The long period, the clean conditions, and the size. It’s going to be a proper session. Because the period is so long, it might break a bit straight at this reef, but it should still offer some good walls.

Tuesday the 22nd has size but gets messy again with a fresh cross-shore. Wednesday the 23rd is a bit cleaner, but the wind is moderate. The real magic happens again on Thursday the 25th. The morning shows a light NE cross-off breeze, 5ft of SW swell with a 16-second period, and the comment is "expect very good surf conditions". The energy reading of 1333 is moderate, but the quality is going to be there. This is another window to keep an eye on, though it’s a bit further out so I’d be a little less certain on the details.

The period fades out after that, with a few smaller, cleaner days but nothing that compares to that 21st or the 25th.

So, to sum it up: there’s a small window on Saturday, but the real standouts are Monday the 21st and Friday the 25th. The 21st has more size and power, while the 25th looks cleaner and more user-friendly. Those are your two best bets.

Remember, it’s a reef break, so it’s for the more experienced surfer. And given that it’s a consistent break, crowds are likely, especially on the good days.

I’ll be out there for the 21st, for sure.

Rusty

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