Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 28 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.5°C
0.9° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 3,094 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 4PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Mon 31st Aug)5ft (1.5m) 15s
Best Surf10PM (Wed 2nd Sep)6ft (1.8m) 14s
Most Powerful10AM (Fri 4th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Flynns Reef.

Overall, this is a pretty frustrating run. There’s a whole lot of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a stubborn bastard for most of it, ruining what could have been some solid sessions. We’ve got a long wait ahead for anything truly good.

Kicking off Friday the 28th of August, the conditions are poor. We’ve got a 4ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, and combined wave energy is a strong 1326, but the 20 km/h NW cross-on wind just chops it up. That afternoon, the swell jumps to 6ft from the SW at 17 seconds, and the wind backs off a touch, but it’s still cross-onshore, making it marginal at best.

Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are a write-off. We’ve got 4ft to 5ft of SW swell, but onshore and cross-on winds keep the surf quality poor. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 31st is a little more promising, but still far from perfect. The swell holds at 5ft-5ft from the SW, with a period of 14-15 seconds. The wind gets light, but it’s still cross-shore. The water temp is 56°, which is about average for this time of year. The combined energy reads a moderate 992 to 1273, but with the wind angle, it stays marginal.

Tuesday the 1st of September is a total mess. Strong breeze winds from the NNW at 40 km/h hammer the 4ft-4ft swell. Just forget it.

From Wednesday the 2nd through to the weekend of the 6th of September, it’s a lot of the same story. There’s consistent SW swell, peaking at 10ft on Friday the 4th and again on the 6th, with combined energy hitting a very strong 4054 and 2406, respectively. But every single session is plagued by onshore or cross-on winds. This is one of those times where the *Flynns Reef (reef)* is going to be a mess for paddling. Honestly, with that much wind and swell, a kitesurfer would probably have a field day, but for a traditional surfer, it’s a no-go.

Finally, after that long stretch of poor conditions, the first real standout shows up on Monday the 7th of September. It’s a small morning session with a 4ft SW swell, 11-second period, light cross-offshore wind from the N at only 5 km/h, and a clean wave state. Combined energy is a weak 477, so it won't be powerful, but it will be clean. That’s the best chance for a fun, uncrowded paddle.

Tuesday the 8th of September keeps the hope alive. The morning brings 4ft of SW swell with a long 14-second period, and the wind is offshore from the ESE at 10 km/h, giving us clean conditions again. In the afternoon, the wind picks up to a moderate 20 km/h but remains offshore, keeping the 4ft surf clean. This is another good window.

After that, the wind turns nasty again. Wednesday the 9th sees onshore winds and poor surf. Thursday the 10th offers a glassy morning with small 3ft swell—a great option for a longboard or a beginner—but then Friday and Saturday the 11th and 12th of September get windy and messy once more.

The absolute best on offer in this 16-day window are the Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th of September mornings. For a clean, manageable wave with offshore or light winds, that’s the time to be at Flynns Reef. The rest of the period is mostly blown out.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning).

Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.6
SW
13
1.6
SW
14
1.5
SW
15
1.6
SW
17
1.3
SW
16
1.2
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.8
SW
15
2.4
WSW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.9
SW
14
3
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
694
1795
1297
825
650
431
659
649
821
992
936
1502
864
674
1109
1196
1308
2280
1336
1343
3045
Wind (km/h)
20
NW
15
SSW
20
WSW
15
WNW
20
WSW
20
WNW
20
W
15
SW
20
WSW
10
NW
5
SSW
15
N
40
NNW
35
NNW
40
NNW
25
NW
20
SW
15
N
35
NW
30
NW
45
WNW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
High Tide
12:02PM2.00m
11:49PM1.82m
12:46PM2.08m
00:48AM1.94m
1:24PM2.16m
1:38AM2.07m
1:59PM2.23m
2:24AM2.20m
2:33PM2.28m
3:07AM2.31m
3:06PM2.32m
3:49AM2.38m
3:41PM2.34m
Low Tide
6:09PM1.00m
6:10AM0.61m
6:56PM0.84m
7:00AM0.58m
7:36PM0.65m
7:45AM0.55m
8:13PM0.48m
8:27AM0.54m
8:50PM0.31m
9:07AM0.56m
9:26PM0.18m
9:47AM0.59m
10:04PM0.09m
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:48
6:47
6:46
6:43
6:43
6:41
6:39
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:55
5:57
5:58
 mm
2
3
Temp °C
12
12
11
9
11
11
11
11
11
11
13
13
17
19
17
15
13
13
14
15
15
Feels °C
8
9
6
6
8
7
8
8
8
10
11
10
9
12
10
11
10
12
6
8
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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