
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 4,980 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 10 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 18s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 2.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Howdy, Rusty here. Lookin’ at the next 16 days, it’s a mixed bag. We got plenty of southwest swell on the charts, but the wind’s gonna be a stubborn bugger for most of it.
First off, from Thursday the 3rd through to Monday the 7th, it’s a no-go. Swell from 5ft to 10ft, but the wind is howling onshore or cross-onshore, gustin’ up to 34 mph. That’s a solid 5-day stretch of nothing. The energy is strong (2471 to 3657 units), but it’s all for nothin’.
The first real window is Tuesday the 15th of September in the afternoon. Flynns Reef goes glassy – dead calm. You got a 6ft southwest swell with a 17-second period, proper groundswell. The combined energy is strong (2156). Water temp is about 57°, which is a couple of degrees warmer than usual for this time – a nice little treat. It’ll be clean and powerful on that reef. The crowd factor is “often,” so there’ll be some heads out, but it’s the best of the whole run.
Earlier, there’s a couple of marginal days. Thursday the 10th in the morning has a 8ft southwest swell with an 18-second period – that’s a long one – and light cross-onshore wind. The energy is real strong (3756), but that little wind will put a crinkle on it. It’s the biggest swell you can try before the proper clean day. Also, Friday the 11th afternoon goes clean with cross-offshore breeze and a 4ft swell (788 energy). It’s small, but it’s clean.
The very end, Thursday the 17th of September morning, has a monster 12ft southwest swell with clean cross-offshore wind. But the report says it’s too big for the break. The energy is massive (3901). That’s for experts only, and you’d need a lot of nerve.
So, the first week is basically a blank. The standout is that glassy Tuesday the 15th afternoon. Everything else is either too windy, too small, or too big.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, near gales from the WNW by Sat morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 10 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 8 | SW 10 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 18 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2471 | 3119 | 3529 | 3269 | 2901 | 2231 | 1456 | 3657 | 1009 | 1318 | 933 | 1013 | 683 | 634 | 407 | 616 | 1690 | 1532 | 1581 | 2080 | 4261 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross |
High Tide | 3:41PM2.34m | 4:32AM2.40m | 4:18PM2.34m | 5:17AM2.38m | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | 9:08AM2.07m | 8:51PM2.00m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:04PM0.09m | 10:27AM0.65m | 10:45PM0.05m | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | ||||||||
6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | |
— | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | |
mm | 2 | — | — | — | — | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 10 | SW 13 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 18 |
— | — | 3529 | 3269 | 2901 | 2231 | 1456 | — | 565 | 1318 | 933 | 528 | 18 | 44 | 407 | 572 | 975 | 1532 | 1581 | 2080 | 4261 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | NE 6 | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | S 22 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SSW 18 | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SSW 18 |
— | — | — | — | 321 | — | 1 | — | — | 15 | 31 | 25 | 9 | 17 | 231 | 616 | 60 | — | 349 | 1156 | 356 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 21 | SW 20 | SSW 18 | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 21 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 246 | 61 | — | — | 103 | 253 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 5 | SW 15 | SW 10 | — | — | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 8 | — | — | SW 17 | SW 6 | — | — | — |
2471 | 3119 | — | — | — | 28 | 47 | 3657 | 1009 | — | — | 1013 | 683 | 634 | — | — | 1690 | 153 | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 73 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 322 | 484 | 73 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 73 | 126 | 2 | 4 | 131 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










