Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next few weeks at Flynns Reef. This is a solid, consistent reef break that’s fairly exposed to the SW, so when the swell lines up, it can be a proper gem. Water temp is sitting at 14°, which is right around average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The pattern starts off clean and promising. Thursday afternoon, the 9th, is a beauty. We’ve got a clean 4ft swell rolling in from the SW, with a long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is light offshore from the ESE at just 3 mph, making for glassy conditions. The combined energy is solid at 533 (moderate). It’s clean, it’s punchy, and it’s on. Friday morning, the 10th, gets a bit tricky with a cross-shore wind, but the swell picks up to 4ft with the same long period. The real winner on Friday is the afternoon: wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NNE at 3 mph, and the swell stays at 4ft, 15 seconds. Clean again.

Saturday, the 11th, is a write-off. Strong northerly winds at 25 mph chop the 3ft swell into a mess. Sunday and Monday are even worse – raw onshore winds and building swell up to 10ft, but it’s all blown out and ugly. The combined energy jumps to 1788 (strong) on Sunday and over 2000 (very strong) on Monday, but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Not for paddling.

Tuesday, the 14th, is a no-go. Onshore winds and 10ft swell with a 16-second period – that’s a lot of power, but the wind is on it, making it lumpy and dangerous. This is expert territory in the wrong conditions.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday morning, the 15th, is a standout. The swell drops to 8ft, still from the SW with a 15-second period, but the wind turns light and cross-offshore from the south at 6 mph. The combined energy is still 2401 (very strong), but it’s clean and powerful. This is a day for experienced surfers – the reef will be handling that energy properly, and the sets will be meaty. Still, at 8ft, it’s big enough to keep the beginners on the beach.

Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are smaller but still fun. Friday afternoon sees the wind go light cross-offshore again from the north at 3 mph, with a 4ft, 15-second swell. Clean, easy, and much more manageable. The combined energy drops to 809 (moderate), so it’s not as punchy, but it’ll be a fun, cruisy session.

Then the wind gets messy again from Saturday the 18th through to Wednesday the 22nd. Strong cross-shore winds and dropping swell sizes make for poor conditions. The swell dips to 2ft and 3ft, with combined energy falling below 300 (weak). It’s a flat spell, really.

But hold on. The real gold is at the end of the forecast period. Thursday, the 23rd, is a dream. The swell builds to 6ft in the morning, 7ft in the afternoon, and it’s a long-period SW groundswell (17-18 seconds). The wind goes glassy – completely calm – at 3 mph from the WSW and then SSW. The combined energy is 2211 (very strong) in the morning and 2366 (very strong) in the afternoon. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers, with the reef handling that long-period energy beautifully. The sets will be clean, powerful, and lined up.

Friday, the 24th, keeps the size up. 8ft in the morning, 10ft in the afternoon, both from the SW. The wind stays light in the morning, then goes glassy in the afternoon. With combined energy hitting 3325 (very strong), this is big, powerful, and clean. Only for experts, and only if you know the reef. The crowds at Flynns can be often, so get there early for these last two days.

The best of the bunch is Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th. That’s your window for the session of the trip. The earlier part of the week has a few clean windows, but the end of the run is the real payoff.

Rusty.

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