Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 5 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 9,549 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one for Flynns Reef. We’ve got a solid run of SW groundswell energy coming through, with numbers hitting moderate to really strong later on, but the wind is the problem. For most of the next two weeks, it’s gonna be a battle with cross-onshore breezes.
Let's start with this weekend. Saturday 5th September arvo has some clouds and a strong 28 mph WNW cross-on wind. The swell is 5 ft from the SW with a long 15-second period, so there’s plenty of energy, but the wind messes it up completely – poor surf.
Sunday 6th September morning is a bit better. The wind drops to a 12 mph SW cross-on, and the swell bumps up to 7 ft from the SW, 14-second period. Still choppy and marginal at best. That arvo the swell drops to 5 ft and the wind lightens to 9 mph, so it’s fairly choppy – still not worth the paddle.
Monday the 7th through to Saturday the 12th is a blur of cross-onshore winds, from moderate to fresh, with swell sizes between 4 ft and 6 ft. The best of a bad bunch might be Friday 11th September morning – clear skies, 12 mph WSW offshore wind, and a 6 ft SW swell with a 15-second period. But it’s still poor surf.
Then we have a real standout that’s worth waiting for. On Thursday 17th September, both the morning and afternoon sessions look absolutely magic. Morning: glassy conditions, slight air, with a 8 ft SW swell and a very long 16-second period. The water temp is 57° with a 2° anomaly, so it's about average for this time of year – just a touch warmer. This is a proper groundswell, and Flynns Reef is a reef break, so those long-period lines will pitch up nicely. Conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. The afternoon is even glassier – calm wind, 0 mph from the E, with a 7 ft SW swell still at 16 seconds. This is the day to circle on the calendar. Just keep in mind, at that size, it’s for experienced crew only. After that, Friday 18th morning the wind cranks up to a near gale from the NNW at 31 mph, and it’s blown out.
The final weekend (19th and 20th) is another cross-onshore mess with strong winds, so it’s back to poor conditions. On the 20th arvo, the period drops to just 8 seconds – short-period wind swell. Not worth it.
So, the one true standout is Thursday 17th September. Two sessions of glassy, clean 7-8 ft SW groundswell at Flynns Reef. Bring your A-game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Sat night, light winds from the W by Mon night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Tue night, moderate winds from the WSW by Thu night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 20 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1200 | 2490 | 1641 | 1063 | 772 | 520 | 649 | 273 | 535 | 1555 | 1082 | 3412 | 5719 | 9549 | 4908 | 3717 | 2241 | 1460 | 1196 | 1738 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | 9:08AM2.07m | 8:51PM2.00m | 10:18AM2.07m | 10:16PM1.99m | 11:22AM2.11m | 11:35PM2.06m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | 4:21PM0.91m | 4:47AM0.51m | 5:32PM0.76m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — |
mm | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 6 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | SSW 7 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 22 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 1200 | — | 1641 | 1063 | 688 | 341 | 307 | 124 | 535 | 1555 | 1082 | 311 | 785 | 9549 | 4908 | 3717 | 2241 | 1460 | 1196 | 1738 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SSW 6 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | — | SSW 22 | — | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 55 | 51 | 71 | 69 | 273 | 534 | 789 | — | 93 | — | 438 | 565 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | S 22 | SW 20 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 9 | 246 | 61 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 5 | SW 11 | — | — | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 6 | — | SW 5 | SW 6 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | S 6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 75 | 2490 | — | — | 772 | 520 | 649 | 98 | — | 31 | 113 | 3412 | 5719 | 6623 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 457 | 264 | 69 | 2 | 69 | 70 | 451 | 2 | 2 | 73 | 320 | 769 | 1034 | 84 | 73 | 73 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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