Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 11 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.6° C
0.3° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,821 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 7s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Thu 16th Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 14s
Best Surf 1PM (Fri 17th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 16s
Most Powerful 1PM (Tue 14th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


Alright, folks, Rusty here to break down the next stretch at Flynns Reef. I gotta be honest, the first chunk is a total bust. The swell is pumping from the southwest, with combined energy readings from 1837 up over 4000 (moderate to very strong), but the wind is screaming out of the northwest at 31 mph. That’s a near gale cross-onshore, turning 8ft to 10ft of swell into a complete blown-out mess. Honestly, with that much wind and surf, this is looking more like a kite surfing situation than a paddle surfing one. Don't even think about it until at least mid-week.

Things take a slight turn on Wednesday the 15th. The swell drops to a still-chunky 6ft from the southwest, but the wind backs off to 9 mph from the northwest. It’s still cross-onshore, so expect a choppy surface. Combined energy is down to 1505 (moderate). Thursday the 16th is similar – 4ft swell with light winds, but it’s labeled as marginal. Not clean. This whole spell from the 12th to the 18th is a long gap of poor conditions.

But hang on, because Friday the 17th afternoon shows some promise. The swell hangs in at a solid 6ft from the southwest, with a very long period of 16 seconds – that's real groundswell energy. And the wind goes glassy, with a slight air from the south. That’s huge. Combined energy is 1357 (moderate). For a consistent advanced reef break like Flynns Reef, a long period southwest swell with glassy conditions is a dream. The internal numbers call it excellent for experienced surfers. At 6ft with that period, it's not for the groms, but for the crew who know what they're doing, this is the best bet of the first week.

Then it’s back to a rough patch from Saturday the 18th through Wednesday the 22nd. The swell gets tiny – down to 2ft to 5ft – and the wind cranks back up from the north at 22 to 25 mph, making everything a lumpy, choppy disaster. Combined energy drops as low as 156 (weak). Not worth a paddle.

Now for the second week. Thursday the 23rd afternoon looks interesting again. A 4ft southwest swell, but with a super long period of 19 seconds, and the wind is glassy from the SSE. That’s clean lines on the reef. Energy is 1745 (moderate).

But the real standout of the entire outlook is Friday the 24th. Clear skies, a light cross-offshore breeze from the northeast, and a solid 6ft southwest swell with a 17-second period. Combined energy at 2054 (moderate). The wind description is "clean." That’s the golden ticket. It’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s the one to aim for. Saturday the 25th looks like it gets ruined by a fresh northerly wind again, so the window is tight.

To sum it up: Friday the 17th afternoon for a glassy session, and especially that Friday the 24th for cleaner conditions with solid groundswell. The rest of the time, the wind is the enemy.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NW on Sun morning, fresh winds from the WSW by Tue afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu night, min 12°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Sat
18
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
4
3
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
13
2.5
WSW
12
3
WSW
13
3
SW
13
3
SW
15
3
SW
16
3.5
SW
15
3
SW
16
2.5
SW
15
3
SW
15
1.9
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.5
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.3
SW
15
1.8
SW
16
1.7
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
336
1837
2403
2886
3447
4013
5157
4155
3144
3873
1505
1203
849
726
726
788
1532
1357
825
485
340
Wind (km/h)
45
NW
50
NW
45
NW
45
NW
45
NW
45
NW
40
W
30
W
30
WSW
25
WSW
15
NW
10
WNW
10
WNW
15
NNW
5
W
15
N
10
NW
5
S
10
NNE
20
NNW
25
NNW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross
cross-on
glassy
cross-off
cross
cross-on
High Tide
8:51AM2.19m
8:11PM2.13m
9:59AM2.23m
9:16PM2.10m
11:07AM2.28m
10:27PM2.11m
12:10PM2.35m
11:40PM2.14m
1:06PM2.42m
00:49AM2.19m
1:57PM2.48m
1:54AM2.24m
2:43PM2.51m
Low Tide
2:01AM0.16m
2:34PM1.04m
3:02AM0.11m
3:44PM1.08m
4:07AM0.08m
4:56PM1.04m
5:14AM0.06m
6:05PM0.94m
6:18AM0.05m
7:07PM0.79m
7:18AM0.08m
8:04PM0.62m
8:13AM0.14m
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
light rain
cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:17
 mm
7
3
4
2
5
1
Temp °C
11
13
13
13
13
14
13
12
13
13
13
14
13
13
14
15
12
12
13
12
14
Feels °C
0
2
4
4
4
5
4
4
6
6
9
12
10
9
12
11
9
11
11
7
9
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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