Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 12 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.1° C
0.5° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,531 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Sun 16th Aug)5ft (1.6m) 15s
Best Surf 1AM (Sun 16th Aug)5ft (1.6m) 15s
Most Powerful 4AM (Thu 13th Aug)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a solid, classic SW groundswell in the water for the next few days, but the wind is gonna be a real battle. The start of the week is a write-off for paddle surfing, so we’re looking at a slow build to a couple of decent windows later on. The water temp is sitting right around 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The main event is Flynns Reef (reef). This is an advanced-level break, and it’s a consistent spot that’s fairly exposed to the swell. It likes the swell from the SW. The first real chance to get a clean one is on Sunday, the 16th of August. The morning looks best: a clean 5 ft of swell from the SW with a long 14-second period, and a light offshore from the NE. The combined energy is moderate at 815, but it’ll feel like a proper groundswell. The lineup could be a bit crowded, so expect some company. Sunday afternoon drops off a bit with a cross-shore wind, but it’s still rideable.

Monday morning, the 17th, is another good shout. The swell is a bit smaller at 4 ft, but it’s clean with a gentle offshore wind from the ENE. The period is still a solid 14 seconds, so there’s shape and push. The energy is light but workable. After that, the swell fades fast.

We hit a big gap after Tuesday the 18th. From Wednesday the 19th through to the 27th, the surf is real small and the wind is mostly onshore, strong, or just plain messy. There’s a pulse of bigger swell around the 22nd and 23rd, but with the wind cranking from the N and WSW, it’s going to be blown out. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. The end of the 16-day window on the 27th has a tiny glimmer with a 5 ft swell and light wind, but it’s marginal.

So, the standout moments are definitely the Sunday morning (16th) and Monday morning (17th) sessions at Flynns Reef. The first one is the pick of the bunch. The rest is a long, quiet stretch with a big stormy blast in the middle. It’s a waiting game after that.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Wed morning, light winds from the S by Fri night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
3
2
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.9
WSW
16
2.2
SW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.3
SW
16
2.3
SW
16
2.2
SW
16
2.2
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
0.8
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1832
2475
3233
3039
2668
2634
2295
2266
1958
1610
1363
1011
813
726
623
573
803
705
528
459
322
Wind (km/h)
35
WNW
25
W
30
WNW
30
WNW
15
W
20
WNW
20
W
20
SW
15
WSW
5
SSW
15
S
10
ESE
10
NNE
15
S
20
E
15
ENE
25
SE
15
ENE
10
NNE
15
SE
15
NE
Wind State
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
off
cross-off
cross
off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
10:44AM2.16m
10:15PM2.05m
11:48AM2.22m
11:34PM2.09m
12:44PM2.30m
00:45AM2.16m
1:33PM2.37m
1:48AM2.24m
2:17PM2.42m
2:42AM2.31m
2:58PM2.43m
3:32AM2.33m
3:35PM2.41m
Low Tide
4:36PM1.02m
4:59AM0.25m
5:48PM0.89m
6:05AM0.27m
6:51PM0.70m
7:05AM0.30m
7:45PM0.51m
7:59AM0.34m
8:33PM0.35m
8:47AM0.41m
9:17PM0.24m
9:31AM0.49m
9:58PM0.19m
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:09
7:07
7:07
7:05
7:05
7:03
7:01
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:38
5:39
5:40
5:42
5:43
5:43
5:44
 mm
2
1
1
Temp °C
12
13
12
13
14
13
12
13
12
12
12
12
11
13
12
13
15
12
15
15
15
Feels °C
3
7
6
8
11
8
7
7
7
9
8
8
9
10
7
9
9
8
14
11
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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