Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Flynns Reef. This is a deep water reef setup that takes a solid SW groundswell, and we’ve got a big run of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a nightmare for the first week and a half. We’re looking at a long wait before things clean up, so patience is key.

The pattern starts with a proper pulse of SW groundswell arriving on Wednesday the 2nd of September. We’re talking about a 5ft swell with a very long 16-second period, and the combined energy is already pumping at 1050 (moderate). But, the wind is onshore from the WNW at 16 mph, and it’s just not happening. The water temperature is sitting at 56°, which is about normal for this time of year, with an anomaly of only 0.9°.

The next few days are a write-off. The swell builds through Thursday and Friday, peaking near 10ft with energy readings climbing into the thousands (3278 on Thursday arvo, 3311 Friday morning), but the wind is howling from the west and southwest, often at 19-25 mph, creating poor, lumpy, blown-out conditions. This is more of a kite session than a surf session. The wind stays strong over the weekend, with a near-gale on Saturday, so don’t even bother.

We finally get a slight break on Sunday the 6th of September. Swell drops to 6ft, period is still a quality 13 seconds, and the wind goes light and variable – offshore from the WNW at only 6 mph. The energy is at 1064 (moderate). The model calls it “marginal,” but with that light wind, the reef could offer a few clean ones. It’s a short window.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Thursday the 10th of September. After a week of punishment, the wind finally swings to the south at 9 mph, going cross-offshore. The swell is a solid 8ft from the SW, with a 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is huge at 3439 (strong). This is the best on offer. The wind is clean, the swell is powerful, and Flynns Reef will be handling it perfectly. This is for experienced surfers only, as 8ft on a reef is no joke. Crowds are likely here, as it often gets busy.

The rest of the outlook is a mixed bag. Friday the 11th has a smaller 5ft swell but the wind swings back to the NNW, creating cross-shore chop. The following week sees more onshore winds and lumpy surf, though Monday the 14th of September has a brief moment of offshore wind from the ESE at 12 mph, but the swell is small at 3ft. The last few days of the forecast show another big swell building on the 17th, with 10ft and 16-second period energy hitting 6689, but the wind is onshore again, which is a real shame.

So, to wrap it up: If you’re an experienced surfer, circle Thursday the 10th of September. That’s your day. The rest of the run is a waiting game for the wind to play ball.

Rusty.

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