Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 16 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
12.9° C
0.3° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,494 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 4PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Sun 16th Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 14s
Best Surf 1PM (Mon 17th Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 16s
Most Powerful 4AM (Sat 22nd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into the surf ahead for Flynns Reef. There’s a lot of water moving, but you gotta be smart about when you paddle out. The start looks mint before the wind turns it all to mush.

The first call is your standout. Sunday the 16th, early session at Flynns Reef (Big Island) is the pick. We’ve got a clean 4ft SW swell with a proper 14-second pulse. Energy is moderate at 726, and the water temp is 55°, right where it should be for this time of year. Light NE cross-offshore wind means it’s going to be glassy and perfect. That’s your session. The afternoon stays clean, just the wind shift a touch more south.

Monday the 17th keeps it going with a similar 4ft SW swell. The morning is clean with an offshore ENE breeze. The arvo picks up a 15 mph SE wind, but the swell period stretches out to 16 seconds, and the energy climbs to 931. Still a very good wave. Tuesday the 18th sees more of the same, with 3-4ft of SW swell and light winds keeping it tidy.

Now here’s where it turns. From Wednesday the 19th, the wind goes onshore and doesn’t let up. Wednesday and Thursday are poor, with bumpy, messy surf and the swell dropping off. Friday the 21st a new pulse of SW swell comes in at 4-5ft, energy jumps to 1670, but it’s buried under a strong north-west cross-onshore. Completely blown out.

The weekend is a full-on washout. Saturday the 22nd sees the swell jump to a solid 7-8ft with strong energy at 2567, but the onshore wind is relentless. This isn’t paddle surfing, it’s a full-on chaos zone, more for the kite crowd. Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th stay poor as the swell eases, but the wind stays messy and we even see some showers. It’s a grim stretch.

Tuesday the 25th is more of the same: fresh, messy winds and a churned-up ocean. Wednesday the 26th, the swell pulses again to a powerful 8ft, but the period is short at 10 seconds, and it’s crossed up by a strong south-southwest cross-onshore. That’s only for the brave, and even then, it’s hard to see much fun.

Finally, we get a reprieve. Thursday the 27th, the wind drops to a light south-southwest cross. The swell settles to 3-4ft with a gorgeous 17-second period. Energy is still moderate at 1158. The notes say “marginal,” so the tide might be a factor, but it’s a huge improvement. Friday the 28th stays similar, small 3ft swell and light winds. Saturday the 29th looks the same.

Then we get the second standout. Sunday the 30th, the afternoon goes dead glassy, zero wind. Swell holds at a clean 3-4ft, SW, with a 15-second period. Energy at 542. The comment says “good surf conditions.” That Sunday arvo is your golden window for the second week. A clean, gentle, long-period reef wave. Just remember, it’s further out, so treat it with a bit of caution. Monday the 31st looks like the cross-shore winds come back, so that Sunday window is the one.

So, to sum it up: two golden windows. Sunday morning the 16th and Monday the 17th, and then Sunday afternoon the 30th. The middle stretch is a mess. Stick to those windows.

Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the WNW on Thu morning, strong winds from the WSW by Fri night).

Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.8
SW
16
0.7
SW
14
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.4
SW
18
1
WSW
13
1
SW
13
1.3
WSW
16
1.4
SW
14
2.3
SW
16
2.3
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
726
650
632
549
931
715
535
398
339
206
147
171
113
362
342
801
821
2548
2567
1915
1882
Wind (km/h)
5
NE
10
SSE
10
ENE
10
ENE
20
SE
20
ENE
15
NE
10
SE
20
NE
35
N
40
N
30
NNW
25
WNW
25
WNW
25
NW
30
NW
30
NW
45
WSW
35
SW
30
WSW
20
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
2:17PM2.42m
2:42AM2.31m
2:58PM2.43m
3:32AM2.33m
3:35PM2.41m
4:16AM2.31m
4:11PM2.36m
4:59AM2.26m
4:46PM2.28m
5:39AM2.18m
5:20PM2.19m
6:21AM2.09m
5:54PM2.09m
Low Tide
8:33PM0.35m
8:47AM0.41m
9:17PM0.24m
9:31AM0.49m
9:58PM0.19m
10:12AM0.59m
10:36PM0.20m
10:51AM0.70m
11:14PM0.25m
11:28AM0.81m
11:51PM0.32m
12:06PM0.92m
00:30AM0.41m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:05
7:03
7:01
7:01
7:00
6:58
6:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:43
5:43
5:44
5:45
5:45
5:46
5:47
 mm
1
2
1
11
Temp °C
11
14
13
13
16
14
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
14
12
13
15
12
11
12
11
Feels °C
10
10
9
11
11
11
13
14
13
9
8
7
7
8
6
7
9
3
3
6
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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