Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 05 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.6°C
0.9° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 9,743 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Tue 8th Sep)4.5ft (1.4m) 14s
Best Surf 1PM (Thu 10th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 17s
Most Powerful 4AM (Thu 10th Sep)13ft (4.0m) 18s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Well, grab a coffee, because the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag. For the first week, we're mostly watching from the shore, but the second half of the period cranks up for those who can handle it. We're looking at Flynns Reef, a reef break for advanced crew only.

Right now, the water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year – nothing to write home about on that front.

The first real action kicks off on Saturday, September 12th. The morning at Flynns Reef is still just marginal with a 6ft SW swell and a light cross-shore breeze that's keeping things a bit bumpy. The combined energy is moderate at 1513. But the afternoon change is where it gets interesting. The wind shifts to a light cross-offshore breeze, the 6ft SW swell cleans right up, and with a period of 17 seconds, you're getting some proper groundswell energy (combined energy now 2516). This is excellent surf for the experienced surfer, no doubt about it.

Sunday the 13th keeps that good form rolling. Clean conditions again with a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is a consistent 6ft from the SW in the morning, dropping a touch to 5ft by the afternoon. It's still very good, quality waves on offer.

After that, we hit a poor run through the middle of the week. Monday and Tuesday (14th and 15th) are all messy, onshore winds and chop – to be avoided.

But hold on to your board shorts because the highlight is coming up. On Thursday, September 17th, we get a fresh pulse of SW swell, pushing 8ft, with a very long period of 17 seconds. That's serious groundswell. The combined energy is strong at 3289. The morning session sees a light cross-offshore breeze, absolutely clean conditions. This is big, powerful stuff – 8ft at this break is expert territory only. The long period will make it hollow and fast on the reef, but paddling out will be easier between the longer set gaps.

Then on Friday the 18th, it's a similar story, but even cleaner. Another excellent morning session with a 8ft SW swell, 16-second period, and light cross-offshore winds. The afternoon is just as good, with the wind dropping to nearly glassy and the swell easing slightly to 7ft. The combined energy is still strong at 2179. This is the top pick of the whole outlook.

In a nutshell: the first week is a write-off until the weekend of the 12th and 13th, which offer some nice, clean, manageable waves. But the real standout, the one you want to plan for, is Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th. That's when the ocean wakes up. It's for experts only at that size on a reef, but for crew who can handle it, it'll be a proper session.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Sat night, calm by Mon night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 9°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu night).

Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
!
2
1
1
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
3.5
SW
11
2.1
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1.6
SW
12
1.6
SW
7
1.4
SW
14
1.3
SW
13
1.6
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
3
SW
16
3
SW
19
4
SW
18
3.5
SW
18
3.5
SW
17
2.3
SW
16
2
SW
15
1.8
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1456
1096
2443
1680
1063
357
761
240
701
535
1555
1297
4467
7199
9633
7698
6323
2548
1692
1421
1672
Wind (km/h)
40
NNW
40
WNW
55
WSW
20
WSW
15
SW
30
WSW
30
WSW
30
SSW
15
SSW
15
W
15
WSW
35
WSW
35
SSW
30
SW
25
SW
20
SW
20
SW
10
W
15
WSW
20
SSW
5
SSW
Wind State
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross
cross
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
High Tide
4:57PM2.32m
6:05AM2.31m
5:41PM2.26m
6:59AM2.21m
6:33PM2.18m
8:00AM2.12m
7:35PM2.08m
9:08AM2.07m
8:51PM2.00m
10:18AM2.07m
10:16PM1.99m
11:22AM2.11m
11:35PM2.06m
Low Tide
11:09AM0.73m
11:30PM0.06m
11:54AM0.83m
00:19AM0.12m
12:46PM0.92m
1:16AM0.23m
1:48PM0.99m
2:20AM0.35m
3:02PM1.00m
3:33AM0.45m
4:21PM0.91m
4:47AM0.51m
5:32PM0.76m
rain showers
thunderstorm
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:37
6:35
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
 mm
1
1
3
1
1
Temp °C
15
14
13
13
13
13
12
11
10
10
11
12
11
12
12
10
11
11
10
11
11
Feels °C
7
5
2
9
10
7
6
4
5
6
6
4
2
4
5
5
7
8
7
8
9
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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