Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 22 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,370 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 22 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Sep 23) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Tue 22nd Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Tue 22nd Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Rusty here. Let's break down this 16-day forecast.
We've only got one spot on the list, Flynns Reef, which is a consistent, reliable reef. But the first few days are a total loss. The wind is howling onshore or cross-shore, and the surf is messy, even though there's some size. It’s a big ol' gap of junk.
Don't get your hopes up until Tuesday, September 22nd. That's the first real winner. A solid SSW groundswell with a 15-16 second period is running at 6-6ft. The energy is moderate to strong (1361-1829). The wind comes light cross-offshore from the S/SE, giving us clean faces. This is for the advanced guys given the size, but the reef is going to spit out some beautiful, powerful waves. That’s your first standout.
The swell backs down after that. Wednesday and Thursday are smaller, 3-5ft rides with light winds, but not the same grunt.
The next real standout is Saturday, September 26th. In the afternoon, the swell drops to 3ft, but the period goes ballistic to 21 seconds. That is pure ocean energy. The wind goes offshore from the east, light as a feather. The energy is strong (1100). It'll be small, but that long-period groundswell on a reef with offshore wind is a recipe for some of the most perfect, glassy, long-running waves you'll see. Don't miss that window.
We then roll into October. On Wednesday the 30th, check it out at dawn: dead glassy conditions with a clean 5ft, 17-second swell. That's a lot of power (2361). Another one for the experienced folks, as a wave that big with that kind of period on a reef has some serious juice, but it's going to look world-class.
The water temp is right around normal for this time of year.
Bottom line: the first week is a no-go. The main event is Tuesday the 22nd for a powerful, clean 6-6ft SW swell. The sleeper pick is Saturday the 26th afternoon for a tiny-but-perfect, glassy session with insane period.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Tue night, light winds from the NW by Thu night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3099 | 3030 | 3470 | 1875 | 1212 | 706 | 787 | 780 | 1200 | 899 | 999 | 961 | 528 | 300 | 573 | 1488 | 813 | 846 | 1163 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:08AM2.39m | 3:03PM2.30m | 3:48AM2.37m | 3:38PM2.27m | 4:26AM2.32m | 4:12PM2.21m | 5:03AM2.24m | 4:45PM2.14m | 5:41AM2.14m | 5:20PM2.05m | 6:23AM2.04m | 5:57PM1.95m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:09AM0.59m | 9:23PM0.17m | 9:46AM0.64m | 9:59PM0.19m | 10:22AM0.71m | 10:35PM0.25m | 10:57AM0.79m | 11:11PM0.34m | 11:33AM0.89m | 11:49PM0.44m | 12:13PM0.98m | 00:31AM0.54m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | NW 5 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 |
| kJ | — | 3030 | 3470 | 1875 | 1212 | 706 | 787 | 780 | 1200 | 899 | 999 | 961 | 528 | 300 | 12 | 840 | 813 | 846 | 1163 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60 | 379 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 172 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | SW 6 | SW 6 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | — | NW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3099 | 2483 | 2390 | 82 | 49 | 46 | 83 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 18 | — | 2 | 40 | 573 | 1488 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 264 | 320 | 126 | 70 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 451 | 70 | 2 | 2 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 126 | 126 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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