Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 22 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.8° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 22 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,281 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6ft (1.8m) 15s
Best Surf 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6ft (1.8m) 15s
Most Powerful 7PM (Sat 22nd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Yo, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

We’ve got a slow start, but a couple of real gems are hiding in there. The standout is gonna be this Sunday afternoon, and then there’s a beast of a swell in the second week that’s got me buzzing, even if it’s a bit of a long shot.

First up, Flynns Reef is a deep-water reef, consistent, and it loves a southwest swell. Water temp is sitting at 56°, which is dead average for this time of year, so no surprises.

The first few days are a complete bust. Saturday morning (22 August) is a mess with rain showers and a 22 mph onshore wind, smashing a 8ft SW groundswell right into the face. The energy is massive (3204), but it’s ugly. Saturday afternoon is no better, still onshore and lumpy. Sunday morning (23 August) is still marginal – a bit of cross-shore wind on a 6ft SW swell, but not worth paddling out.

Then things get good. Sunday afternoon (23 August) is the clear winner for the first week. The wind drops to dead glassy – zero, calm as a pond – and we’ve got a clean 6ft SW groundswell rolling in with a sweet 15-second period. The energy is still strong (1509), but it’s all about the glassy surface. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The sets will be lined up, and with that period, it’ll be a proper reef-snapper. There’s a bit of a crowd risk here, as it’s “often” busy, but for that kind of glass, it’s worth sharing.

The rest of the week is a dud. Monday (24 August) through to Friday (28 August) is a mix of cross-shore chop, onshore slop, and inconsistent energy. A couple of windows show clean conditions, like Tuesday morning (25 August) with a light cross-off and 4ft swell, but it’s just not enough push to get excited about. The energy is weak (603). Thursday afternoon (27 August) goes glassy again, but with a tiny 3ft swell, it’s barely a ripple.

The following week kicks off with a few more windy days, but then we get a glimpse of something special. Saturday morning (5 September) is a big one. The wind is a light cross-off from the southeast, and we’ve got a solid 7ft SW groundswell, with a 16-second period. The energy is cooking (2479). This is a clean, powerful swell, and it’s aimed right at the reef. It’s a big wave, only for those with the skills, but it’s pure. The afternoon holds up similarly, though a bit more wind.

And then, Sunday morning (6 September) – whoa. The forecast is showing a massive 12ft SW groundswell, with a 17-second period, and a combined energy of 7011. The wind is a light cross-off, and the afternoon goes glassy. This is a monster. The swell is predicted to be too big for this break, so unless you’re a total charger on a big-wave gun, this is one to watch from the cliff. It’s a full-on, expert-only situation. The risk is high, but if it lines up, it’ll be sessions you tell your grandkids about. Keep in mind, this is a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in yet.

Overall, Sunday afternoon (23 August) is your best bet for a clean, fun session. Saturday morning (5 September) is the standout for the bigger, more powerful stuff. The monster on 6 September is a wildcard. Stay stoked.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Sat morning, calm by Sun afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
2
4
1
0
0
2
2
2
1
0
1
2
0
2
2
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.3
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
16
1.2
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1.3
SW
13
1.2
SW
13
1.4
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
0.9
SW
11
0.8
SW
12
0.8
SW
14
1.3
SW
19
2
SW
17
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
3204
2863
2247
1107
1456
1140
581
434
411
552
480
825
650
437
163
161
265
1183
2339
1671
1068
Wind (km/h)
35
WSW
25
SW
15
WNW
15
NNW
0
WSW
20
NNW
25
NNW
15
NNW
15
NNE
10
ESE
15
SE
15
S
15
S
15
SSW
5
NW
10
N
5
WNW
15
NNW
25
NW
20
WSW
25
W
Wind State
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
glassy
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
High Tide
5:54PM2.09m
7:05AM1.99m
6:31PM1.99m
7:57AM1.91m
7:14PM1.89m
8:58AM1.86m
8:09PM1.80m
10:05AM1.86m
9:19PM1.75m
11:09AM1.92m
10:38PM1.75m
12:02PM2.00m
11:49PM1.82m
Low Tide
12:06PM0.92m
00:30AM0.41m
12:47PM1.03m
1:13AM0.50m
1:35PM1.13m
2:04AM0.57m
2:37PM1.20m
3:03AM0.63m
3:54PM1.21m
4:09AM0.65m
5:09PM1.14m
5:13AM0.64m
6:09PM1.00m
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
mod rain
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
6:48
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:47
5:49
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
5:52
 mm
1
2
9
Temp °C
13
12
12
11
14
13
15
17
16
11
12
12
12
12
11
11
14
13
15
14
12
Feels °C
5
6
7
8
13
8
9
13
14
9
10
10
9
9
10
9
12
11
10
9
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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