
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 8 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 4,960 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 10 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 19s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 10) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 19s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get straight into it. We’re looking at Flynns Reef. Honestly, the first few days are a write-off, so don’t bother paddling out until things settle down later on.
Right now, and through the coming days, we’ve got a cranky southwest swell trying to push in, but the trade winds are absolutely destroying it. Thursday the 9th through Tuesday the 13th is a frustrating stretch of fresh cross-onshore winds, lumpy, choppy conditions, and generally poor surf. Even though there’s decent size – Monday morning has a 5ft SW groundswell with a 19-second period, and the combined swell energy hits 1864 (moderate-strong energy) – it’s all blown out. No good for anyone, not even the die-hards.
Wednesday the 14th and Thursday the 15th see the wind ease up a notch, but we’re still looking at moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds with 8ft to 10ft SW swell. That’s expert-only size territory, but the wind is still making it ugly and lumpy. Save the energy.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window opens on Saturday the 16th of August. Saturday afternoon brings clear skies, a light SSE breeze that’s cross-offshore, and a clean 6ft swell from the southwest (15-second period). Combined swell energy is a solid 1595 (moderate energy). That’s proper, clean reef-break conditions for experienced surfers. Definitely the pick of the whole run.
Sunday the 17th morning also looks promising with an east offshore breeze at 12 mph and a 4ft SW swell (14 seconds). The energy is 726 (moderate energy). Still clean, but a bit smaller and with that offshore wind making for some smooth faces. Best for the early session before the seabreeze kicks.
Monday the 18th and Tuesday the 19th see smaller, cleaner 3ft to 4ft SW swell with light to gentle cross-offshore breezes. Nice little waves for logs or mid-lengths, but nothing to get your heart pumping.
Then we’ve got another quiet spell Wednesday through Friday, with weak swell under 3ft and mostly poor wind. Things finally chill out, but there’s just not much to ride.
The last potential highlight shows up on Sunday the 24th of August. The afternoon has a glassy 4ft SW groundswell (15 seconds) with the combined swell energy at 871 (moderate energy). Light east wind, flat water. That’s a real nice session for the crew who can wait. Southwest swell direction is spot on for Flynns Reef’s optimum.
One thing to note: The water temperature is about average for the time of year here, nothing wild, just what you’d expect.
Flynns Reef is a consistent reef break, but it can get crowded as soon as conditions clean up, so expect company on Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. It’s a fairly exposed spot, so when the wind seriously gets on it, you’re not surfing.
For the hard charging kiters? With that 10ft SW swell and cross-onshore wind on Friday the 15th, the setup would be more interesting for them than us paddle surfers.
Summing it up: Saturday the 16th afternoon is your best bet – clean, solid, and good energy. Next best is Sunday the 24th afternoon if you can hold out. Besides that, it’s a patchy fortnight with plenty of waiting.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 30mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Sun night, strong winds from the N by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue night, moderate winds from the WNW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 19 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 8 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
528 | 371 | 212 | 480 | 1713 | 2001 | 2839 | 679 | 453 | 831 | 1431 | 4105 | 4062 | 2469 | 2010 | 2443 | 2770 | 4124 | 2009 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:22AM2.21m | 6:49PM2.20m | 8:25AM2.16m | 7:46PM2.14m | 9:34AM2.14m | 8:56PM2.08m | 10:44AM2.16m | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:41AM0.12m | 1:05PM0.96m | 1:36AM0.14m | 2:06PM1.04m | 2:39AM0.18m | 3:18PM1.08m | 3:48AM0.22m | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | |||||||
— | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | |
mm | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 19 | WSW 17 | — | SW 8 | SW 14 | SW 17 | NNW 5 | SW 19 | — | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | — | SW 16 | SW 16 |
528 | 371 | 212 | 480 | 1713 | 2001 | — | 338 | 453 | 831 | 33 | 2073 | — | 2469 | 2010 | 2443 | — | 4124 | 2009 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 20 | ESE 8 | SE 10 | — | SW 15 | SW 8 | SW 17 | — | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | 51 | 109 | 404 | 26 | 23 | — | 472 | 129 | 487 | — | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SSW 22 | SSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 45 | 142 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNE 3 | ENE 2 | ENE 4 | NNW 4 | — | SW 16 | WSW 8 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 16 | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | — |
— | 9 | 1 | 13 | 9 | — | 2839 | 679 | 8 | 40 | 1431 | 4105 | 4062 | — | — | — | 2770 | 2736 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 7 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 61 | 70 | 306 | 69 | 76 | 103 | 101 | 484 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 69 | 70 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Latest Updates
Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











