
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 5 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 17s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 3 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 6,158 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Sun 5th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Sun 5th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 3rd Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming our way.
Straight up, it’s been a tough start. We’ve got a real gap here with nothing rideable from now until the end of Friday, July 4th. The wind is howling out of the west and southwest at 31 mph and 22 mph, just trashing what would otherwise be some serious southwest groundswell. You don't want to be out there.
Things finally start to turn around on Sunday morning, July 5th. It’s not perfect yet, but we’ve got the first real window of clean conditions. Flynns Reef is the only game in town, and it’s our standout early in the period. The swell drops a bit to 7 ft from the SW, but the period stretches out to a very long 17 seconds, bringing proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong at (3945). The real winner here is the wind – a light ESE breeze that’s cross-offshore. That’s going to groom the reef nicely. Sunday afternoon goes even better with a clean 7 ft SSW swell and fresh offshore ESE wind at 19 mph. This is a proper window for experienced surfers. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.
Monday morning on July 6th is small and clean, with 4 ft from the SW and very long period at 15 seconds. The energy is weak (547) but it’s clean with a light cross-off breeze. Good for fins and a quiet session. Monday afternoon is even smaller and glassy.
The next real standout comes later in the week. On Thursday morning, July 9th, we get a clean 4 ft SW groundswell (15 seconds) with a moderate offshore breeze from the east at 12 mph. Combined energy is moderate (763). The report says “expect very good surf conditions” – and with that offshore wind on a consistent reef break, this is your morning to score. It’s small but clean and lined up.
We have to be patient through some lumpy, windy, and poor-quality days after that. The period from July 11th to 13th is mostly messy with cross-shore winds. July 14th and 15th see a big spike in swell again – 10 ft to 12 ft from the SW – but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore near gale force, so it’s a washout.
Late in the run, on Saturday July 18th, there’s a little cleanup for the small stuff, with 2 ft to 2 ft SW groundswell and light breezes. It’s clean but tiny.
Bottom line: your best bet is Sunday morning, July 5th and Thursday morning, July 9th at Flynns Reef. Both have clean wind, proper SW groundswell, and that reef is going to hold well. The big swells in between are blown out. Pick your windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Fri morning, light winds from the NNE by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
6386 | 6158 | 2824 | 1890 | 1521 | 2037 | 2715 | 2269 | 1101 | 543 | 407 | 224 | 482 | 492 | 542 | 1202 | 1880 | 1123 | 763 | 472 | 603 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross | off | off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:28PM2.26m | 2:09AM1.90m | 3:03PM2.30m | 2:54AM1.93m | 3:36PM2.32m | 3:37AM1.96m | 4:08PM2.32m | 4:21AM2.00m | 4:39PM2.30m | 5:06AM2.04m | 5:11PM2.27m | 5:54AM2.09m | 5:47PM2.24m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:36PM0.88m | 8:24AM0.41m | 9:15PM0.79m | 9:02AM0.44m | 9:51PM0.70m | 9:40AM0.49m | 10:26PM0.61m | 10:19AM0.56m | 11:01PM0.51m | 11:00AM0.64m | 11:38PM0.41m | 11:45AM0.74m | 00:19AM0.31m | ||||||||
7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | |
— | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:12 | — | |
mm | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
Feels °C | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
— | — | — | — | — | 2037 | 2715 | 2269 | 1101 | 543 | 407 | 224 | 482 | 492 | 542 | 1202 | 1880 | 1123 | 763 | 472 | 603 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | — | SE 5 | SE 5 | SW 20 | SSW 17 | — | SW 5 | SW 14 | SSW 5 | SSW 7 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 1230 | 469 | — | 4 | 1 | 15 | 29 | — | 9 | 221 | 26 | 42 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | SSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 35 | — | — | — | 142 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SSW 16 | SE 5 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | NE 3 | — | — | NW 2 | WNW 3 | SW 5 | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — |
6386 | 6158 | 2824 | 1890 | 1521 | 1783 | 30 | 35 | 23 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 25 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 314 | 776 | 73 | 73 | 451 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 126 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










