
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 7 Aug 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 7,391 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's shaping up for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days. It’s going to be a real patience tester, so buckle up.
Honestly, the first week is looking grim, almost a write-off. We get a pulse of swell, but the wind gods are not playing ball. All that energy from the southwest just gets trashed by messy cross-shore and onshore winds. A lot of those strong breezes and lumpy conditions will have you shaking your head. There is some serious swell mid-week, the 13th morning sees a huge 13ft south-west swell with strong wave energy (10302), but it's pinned by a fresh cross-onshore and lumpy, so it's a pass for paddle surfing. That sort of setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than a longboard. The wind just won't let up.
Things finally start turning around on the 15th. That Saturday morning is the standout for the whole outlook. The 6ft south-west swell, with a long 15-second period, will have some grunt, but the real treat is that light offshore breeze from the ESE. That’s going to clean it right up. These are expert-level waves, so it's not for the faint-hearted, but the conditions will be superb. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there for that morning session.
The following days, the 16th and 17th, keep the clean conditions coming with lighter winds, but the swell drops into the 4ft range. It's still a solid south-west groundswell, just not as much oomph. Later in the month, on the 18th Tuesday afternoon, we get another glimpse of what could be. A smaller 4ft south-west swell, but with a fantastic 18-second period and glassy light offshore winds. Perfect for a reef break like Flynns, where those long-period lines will reel down the line. That's a real top-tier session for the experienced crew. After that, the energy fades into the 20th and beyond, with small 3ft swells and onshore winds returning.
So, the pick of the outlook is simple: Saturday 15th August morning. That's where it all lines up. Big enough, clean, and right on the money. The Tuesday 18th afternoon is a close second for its pristine conditions and long-period perfection. Everything else you can probably sit out or wait for the forecast to change.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NE on Fri night, strong winds from the N by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Tue night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon night, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Wed afternoon, light winds from the W by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
453 | 813 | 692 | 598 | 322 | 250 | 480 | 1713 | 1597 | 1654 | 528 | 506 | 655 | 2892 | 2997 | 3476 | 6652 | 3185 | 2457 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:26AM2.24m | 6:01PM2.26m | 7:22AM2.21m | 6:49PM2.20m | 8:25AM2.16m | 7:46PM2.14m | 9:34AM2.14m | 8:56PM2.08m | 10:44AM2.16m | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:12PM0.85m | 00:41AM0.12m | 1:05PM0.96m | 1:36AM0.14m | 2:06PM1.04m | 2:39AM0.18m | 3:18PM1.08m | 3:48AM0.22m | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | |||||||
— | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 6 | — | 6 | — | 2 | 3 | — | — | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SE 10 | WSW 16 | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 20 | — | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
453 | 813 | 692 | 598 | 322 | 250 | 480 | 1713 | 24 | 1273 | 149 | 506 | 655 | 834 | 537 | — | 3650 | 3185 | 2457 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | — | — | — | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 20 | SSW 19 | SSW 18 | — | SW 14 | WSW 6 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
437 | — | — | — | 51 | 109 | 404 | 142 | 61 | — | 528 | 28 | 350 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 6 | — | — | — | SE 4 | ESE 4 | NNW 4 | SE 9 | — | — | — | SSW 6 | WSW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
19 | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 | — | — | — | 13 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNE 4 | NE 3 | N 3 | E 3 | NNW 4 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 7 | NW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 12 | WSW 16 | — | — |
— | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1597 | 1654 | 208 | 12 | 35 | 2892 | 2997 | 3476 | 6652 | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 7 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 49 | 27 | 61 | 69 | 70 | 11 | 92 | 100 | 101 | 462 | 73 | 70 | 10 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











