Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with 1,958 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 2.1m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Mon 17th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Flynns Reef.
We’ve got a run of clean, rideable waves to kick things off this week, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The real standout to pencil in is Tuesday morning the 18th – that’s where the magic happens. The rest of the outlook gets messy with wind and drops off in quality for a long stretch before a possible, though uncertain, flicker of life right at the very end.
So, looking at the first few days. Monday the 17th, we start with a clean 4ft SW swell with a long 14-second period. The wind is light offshore from the ENE in the morning, making for some tidy lines at this advanced reef. The combined energy’s sitting at a moderate 549. It’s a good start, but it’s Tuesday morning the 18th that has my heart. The swell is a touch smaller at 4ft, but it’s still from the SW with a lovely 15-second period, and that cross-offshore NE wind will have it feeling glassy, with energy jumping up to 821. That’s your best bet this week. Tides will play a role as it’s a reef, but the quality is there. Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon still offer clean surf on the dropping tide, just not as punchy.
Now, from Wednesday the 19th, the wheels really fall off. We are staring at a solid week and a half of mostly dud conditions. A strong northerly breeze, gusting up to 25 mph, sets up a messy cross-shore chop on Wednesday that just ruins it. The swell drops to 2ft and the energy plummets to 209. This pattern holds through to the end of August. You’ll see some bigger SW swells pulse through, like 7ft on the 23rd, but it’s accompanied by onshore or cross-onshore winds that will make it a washing machine for experts only, or simply blown out. Even the cleaner look on Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th is marginal. By Friday the 28th, we are down to weak 3ft swell.
Honestly, from the 19th right through to the 29th, there is nothing I’d recommend paddling out for. It’s a real dry spell, with most sessions being blown out by cross-shore or onshore winds. The setup through this windy period looks like it might actually be more fun for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.
Finally, we get a tiny glimmer at the very end. Saturday the 30th and into Sunday the 31st show a bump back up to 6ft of SW swell with a 15-second period and solid energy (1994), and then 6ft on the 31st. However, the winds are still howling from the north and northwest, creating messy cross-shore chop both days. It’s a step in the right direction for size, but the conditions are far from clean. Those last few days are a long-range hope that the wind might ease off, but it’s very uncertain.
Stay safe out there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the SE on Mon morning, strong winds from the N by Wed afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
485 | 931 | 715 | 535 | 398 | 339 | 206 | 145 | 171 | 114 | 113 | 173 | 947 | 379 | 1524 | 1602 | 1452 | 1833 | 1290 | 1322 | 1248 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross |
High Tide | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | 3:35PM2.41m | 4:16AM2.31m | 4:11PM2.36m | 4:59AM2.26m | 4:46PM2.28m | 5:39AM2.18m | 5:20PM2.19m | 6:21AM2.09m | 5:54PM2.09m | 7:05AM1.99m | 6:31PM1.99m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:17PM0.24m | 9:31AM0.49m | 9:58PM0.19m | 10:12AM0.59m | 10:36PM0.20m | 10:51AM0.70m | 11:14PM0.25m | 11:28AM0.81m | 11:51PM0.32m | 12:06PM0.92m | 00:30AM0.41m | 12:47PM1.03m | 1:13AM0.50m | ||||||||
7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | |
— | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 11 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 7 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
485 | 931 | 715 | 535 | 398 | 339 | 206 | 145 | 171 | 114 | 68 | 173 | 486 | 338 | 1524 | 1602 | 1452 | 1833 | 1290 | 1322 | 1248 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 4 | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | SW 21 | SW 18 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | SSW 17 | — | SW 18 | SSW 16 | — |
2 | — | — | 125 | — | 196 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 114 | 113 | 111 | 326 | 341 | — | — | 164 | — | 116 | 140 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | SE 4 | E 3 | — | — | SE 8 | SW 17 | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — |
— | — | — | 161 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — | 3 | 106 | — | 97 | 379 | — | — | — | — | 31 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 5 | — | SE 6 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | W 5 | NW 4 | WSW 7 | WSW 12 | — | W 6 | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — |
14 | 10 | 5 | — | 8 | — | 3 | 10 | 8 | 54 | 6 | 101 | 947 | — | 74 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 82 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 69 | 11 | 73 | 2 | 2 | 69 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











