Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Alright, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Flynns Reef. Straight up, this is a tough run. The forecast has a long stretch of lumpy, choppy, messy conditions, and the scores are telling the story. We’re looking at a big gap of poor days, but there’s a glimmer of hope right at the very end of the window.

The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 1° warmer than the long-term average for this time of year. Nothing radical, just a touch on the warm side.

We kick off on Thursday the 20th of August, but there’s nothing to get excited about. The swell is a tiny 2 feet from the SW, but the wind is a cross-onshore WNW breeze. It’s choppy and weak, with combined energy at just 283 – that’s weak. Forget it.

Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd are a write-off. On Friday, the swell bumps up to 4 feet, but that’s paired with a 15-19 mph cross-onshore wind. Saturday gets a bit of size, 8 feet from the SW, but it’s blowing over 19 mph with a cross-onshore wind. The energy is there at 2725, but it’s a total mess. Not for paddling.

Sunday the 23rd is a bit of a tease. The swell is 6-6 feet from the SW with a long 16-second period, so there’s energy in the water (2052). The wind drops to a light breeze out of the NNW by the afternoon, but it’s still cross-onshore. It’s marginal, and the tide might be a factor. It’s not clean, just okay.

Monday the 24th through to the end of August is a grim run. The wind is up, the swell is inconsistent, and the conditions are predominantly poor. The energy fluctuates, but the wind is always ruining it. The morning of the 30th (Sunday) is the first real sign of life – a light SSE cross-offshore breeze with a tiny 2-foot swell. The energy is very low at 177, but it’s clean. Just a little one.

The standout, the one to keep an eye on, is Tuesday the 1st of September. This is the best on offer. The morning shows a 3-foot SW swell with a long 17-second period. The wind is light and variable, coming from the north as a cross-offshore breeze. The energy is a decent 776, and it’s described as “very good surf conditions.” This will be clean, glassy, and the long period will mean some nice lines. For a reef break like Flynns Reef, that long period is a real bonus. Just be aware that it’s a small swell, so it’s not a bomb. The afternoon is smaller but still clean.

After that, we get a bit of a size spike on the 2nd of September, with 10 feet from the WSW in the afternoon, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, making it lumpy. The energy is big at 2733, but it’s not clean. Then the 3rd gets messy again with strong winds.

And then, right at the end, on the 4th of September (Friday), we see a massive swell coming. 10-12 feet from the WSW, with very strong energy (5014 to 7820). But the wind is howling at 22-25 mph, making it a no-go for surfing. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle.

So, the long and short of it: the first week and a half is pretty much a total loss. The best chance for a clean wave is the morning of Tuesday the 1st of September. It’s a small, clean, long-period swell at Flynns Reef. It’s the only real standout in the whole 16-day window. The rest is blown out or too small.

Rusty.

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