Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at the forecast. The stand-out wave window here is the end of the run, but we’ve got a long wait ahead to get to it.

The only break on the radar is Flynns Reef, a reef setup that’s fairly exposed to the SW. The water’s sitting at 56°F, which is about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about. The energy is moderate when things get going, with a combined energy reading of 384 (moderate).

The first real chance to get a wave comes on the 31st of July, Friday afternoon. It’s a small one, 4ft from the SW, with a 12-second period, but the wind is light onshore. The combined energy is only 384 (moderate), and the forecast calls it marginal. Not a standout.

The first decent window is Saturday the 1st of August. The morning session looks clean with a light N cross-off breeze and a long-period 18-second groundswell pushing in at 2ft from the SW. The energy is still moderate (466), but the conditions are clean. The afternoon sees the swell pick up to 4ft, same direction, but the wind goes cross-shore, making it a bit messy. It’s a tick, but not the best.

The real standout is a long way off. Mark your calendar for Saturday the 15th of August. The afternoon session at Flynns Reef is looking like the pick of the whole 16 days. We’ve got a solid 7ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, and the wind is forecast to go glassy. That’s the magic word – glassy. The combined energy is strong at 2099 (strong wave energy). This is a bigger swell, over 5ft, so it’s not for beginners, and at 7ft it’s getting into expert territory, especially on a reef. The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers, and that’s because a long-period groundswell like this will really wrap into the reef, offering up some proper lines. Crowds are likely at a spot that’s often busy, so get there early.

The weeks leading up to that are a write-off. From Sunday the 2nd right through to Friday the 14th, the wind is either strong, onshore, or cross-off, ruining any chance of clean surf. There’s a couple of mornings with a cross-off breeze on the 7th of August, with a 4ft SW swell (15-second period, energy 878 - moderate), but it’s only a brief flicker of hope in a long stretch of poor conditions. The forecast is consistent in its poor ratings for that entire period.

So, to be blunt: the 16-day run is a painful wait, but if you’re an experienced surfer who can handle a solid reef break, you’re holding out for that glassy afternoon on the 15th of August.

Rusty.

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