Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 01 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.4° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, WSW swell with 1,613 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 1.9m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Fri 7th Aug)2.5ft (0.7m) 18s
Best Surf 1PM (Fri 7th Aug)3.5ft (1.1m) 16s
Most Powerful 4PM (Mon 3rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I’m not gonna lie to you—it’s a tough stretch ahead. The first few days are a write-off. We’re looking at a solid gap of about a week with nothing really worth paddling out for. The wind is howling from the north and west, and the swell is just a mess. It’s not until the afternoon of Friday, August 7th that we finally see a glimmer of hope.

The overall pattern is a long, drawn-out period of poor conditions. The wind is just relentless, and the swell is all over the place. The one spot we’ve got to talk about is Flynns Reef. It’s a consistent, advanced reef break that’s fairly exposed to the SW, which is exactly where this swell is coming from. The water temp is sitting around 56°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing crazy.

Now, the standout. The best of the whole 16 days, and it’s not even close, is the afternoon of Friday, August 7th. Flynns Reef is going to be the place to be. The wind swings around to a light ESE breeze, coming cross-offshore, which will have the waves looking clean. The swell is a solid 4ft from the SW, with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, full of energy. The combined energy is a beefy 1321, so there’s plenty of push. This is a reef break, so that long period will wrap in beautifully and give you some proper, well-shaped lines. It’s an advanced wave, so beginners should stay on the beach, but for the experienced crew, this is the one. The crowds are often there, so you won’t be alone. The water is average temp for the year, no surprises there.

The morning of the 7th is a "maybe" if you’re desperate, with a light cross-shore breeze, but the afternoon is the real deal.

After that, it goes back to the wind woes. The 8th and 9th are blown out again with strong northerlies. We get another little flicker on the morning of Saturday, August 15th and Sunday, August 16th. On the 15th, the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SE, but the swell is only 4ft with a combined energy of 705. It’s marginal, but it’s clean. The 16th is the best of the second week. The morning of the 16th shows a light offshore wind from the east, with a clean 3ft SW swell and a period of 16 seconds. The energy is down to 466, so it’s not a powerhouse, but that offshore breeze will make it look like a million bucks. It’s a good session for the more experienced surfer who can make the most of the clean conditions.

Overall, it’s a long, frustrating wait, but that Friday the 7th afternoon is a true gem. Don’t sleep on it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Mon morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Tue morning, light winds from the WSW by Thu night).

Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
18
1.3
SW
18
1.6
SW
17
1.4
SW
16
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1.9
WSW
15
1.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
12
1.8
SW
12
0.8
SW
12
0.5
SW
20
0.5
SW
19
0.6
SW
18
0.7
SW
12
0.5
SW
16
0.7
SW
18
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.3
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
249
1087
1449
1029
886
696
535
1613
464
910
812
190
186
175
192
144
119
328
844
753
734
Wind (km/h)
15
NNE
15
NNW
20
NNE
30
N
30
N
30
NNW
45
NW
35
WNW
25
W
35
W
25
SW
30
SW
20
SW
15
WSW
20
WSW
15
W
25
SW
5
W
10
NNW
5
SE
15
NNE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
glassy
cross
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
2:01PM2.23m
1:54AM1.94m
2:35PM2.28m
2:41AM2.02m
3:07PM2.31m
3:24AM2.10m
3:38PM2.33m
4:07AM2.18m
4:09PM2.33m
4:50AM2.23m
4:43PM2.32m
5:36AM2.25m
5:19PM2.29m
Low Tide
8:11PM0.80m
8:05AM0.47m
8:48PM0.66m
8:45AM0.49m
9:23PM0.53m
9:24AM0.52m
9:57PM0.40m
10:03AM0.58m
10:32PM0.29m
10:44AM0.65m
11:10PM0.20m
11:26AM0.75m
11:53PM0.14m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
mod rain
rain showers
thunderstorm
rain showers
rain showers
clear
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
7:15
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:30
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
5:34
5:35
 mm
1
2
7
5
7
2
1
1
1
2
1
Temp °C
11
14
12
13
15
13
11
12
11
12
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
10
11
11
Feels °C
6
10
7
6
8
7
1
4
5
6
8
6
8
8
6
8
7
9
9
7
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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