
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 8,588 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks aren’t looking too flash for a paddle, I gotta be straight with you. There’s a long stretch of rough conditions, but we might get a little window of something rideable towards the end of the second week.
Right now, and for most of the coming days, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a strong run of onshore and cross-onshore winds, mostly from the northwest and west, that are going to mess up the surface. The swell itself isn’t the problem – there’s plenty of energy in the water, with readings hitting moderate to very strong levels, but the wind just won’t play ball. Because of that, there are no good surf options for the first ten days or so. That’s a big gap of nothing.
Then, around Thursday the 16th of July, things *might* start to soften up just a little. We’re looking at Flynns Reef here. It’s an advanced-level reef break, and it’s consistent, which is a positive. It’s fairly exposed to the swell, and it likes it from the southwest. On Thursday morning, the wind drops to a gentle breeze, but it’s still cross-onshore, so the surf is fairly choppy with a 5ft swell from the southwest, period of 14 seconds. That moderate wave energy combined with the leftover chop means it’s only just worth a look – marginal at best.
Friday the 17th of July offers a small glimmer. The morning is still choppy with a moderate breeze, but the afternoon sees the wind ease to a light breeze. The swell sits around 6ft from the southwest, with a long 16-second period. That’s a groundswell, which at a reef like Flynns should offer some nice, lined-up waves, though the period means longer waits between sets. The energy is moderate. Still, with a light cross-onshore wind making it fairly clean, this is probably the pick of the whole forecast, even if it’s only a 3 out of 10. It’s the closest we get to good.
After that, the wind picks up again, and we slip back into poor conditions for the rest of the window, with strong breezes and messy cross-chop returning.
So, to be honest, it’s a tough outlook. The only session that even comes close to being worth the drive is the Friday afternoon on the 17th of July at Flynns Reef. The swell is a decent size for advanced surfers, the direction is right, and that light wind makes it the cleanest option we’ve got. Everywhere else and every other time, expect blown-out, lumpy, or choppy conditions. Not a classic winter fortnight.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the N on Fri night, near gales from the NW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue morning, light winds from the NW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Fri 17 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
472 | 350 | 245 | 342 | 1717 | 2604 | 2682 | 3466 | 3631 | 8588 | 4414 | 3911 | 4089 | 1616 | 1255 | 984 | 802 | 802 | 706 | 1438 | 1513 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 7:46AM2.16m | 7:15PM2.16m | 8:51AM2.19m | 8:11PM2.13m | 9:59AM2.23m | 9:16PM2.10m | 11:07AM2.28m | 10:27PM2.11m | 12:10PM2.35m | 11:40PM2.14m | 1:06PM2.42m | 00:49AM2.19m | 1:57PM2.48m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:07AM0.22m | 1:31PM0.96m | 2:01AM0.16m | 2:34PM1.04m | 3:02AM0.11m | 3:44PM1.08m | 4:07AM0.08m | 4:56PM1.04m | 5:14AM0.06m | 6:05PM0.94m | 6:18AM0.05m | 7:07PM0.79m | 7:18AM0.08m | ||||||||
— | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | |
— | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | |
mm | — | — | — | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
472 | 350 | 245 | 342 | — | — | — | 3466 | 3631 | 4853 | — | — | 2633 | 1616 | 1255 | 984 | 802 | 802 | 706 | 1438 | 1513 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 304 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 62 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | WNW 4 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | NW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | — | — | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — |
3 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 1717 | 2604 | 2682 | 42 | 53 | 8588 | 4414 | 3911 | 4089 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 27 | 159 | 159 | 457 | 695 | 101 | 258 | 664 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











