Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into what’s shaping up for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks.

Straight off the bat, we’ve got a real gem on Wednesday the 8th of July. The afternoon is looking absolutely prime. We’re talking a clean 6ft SW groundswell rolling in with a very long 18-second period. The wind is glassy out of the ESE at a mere 5 km/h, so the surface will be like a mirror. This is a reef break, and that long-period energy is gonna produce some serious, well-shaped lines. The water temp is sitting at 14°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year. Combined energy is pumping at 1966 (moderate to strong energy), so this is a session for the experienced crew only — it’s not one for beginners. This Wednesday arvo is the standout of the whole forecast, no question.

Now, heading into Thursday the 9th, the swell drops a little. Morning shows a 4ft SW swell with a 16-second period, and a cross-off wind from the NNE at 10 km/h keeping things clean. It’s not as powerful as Wednesday, but still very surfable. The afternoon cleans right up again with glassy easterly winds. This is a solid, if less exciting, day for a paddle.

Friday the 10th takes a step down. Swell is still around 4-4ft from the SW with a 15-second period, but the wind gets messy. A strong N wind in the morning creates a cross-shore chop, and it swings cross-on in the arvo. The combined energy is there (724 and 657), but the surface won't be pretty. I’d call it a marginal day at best.

Then we hit a bit of a dry spell. Saturday the 11th is a write-off with 45 km/h crosswinds and tiny, weak swell. Sunday the 12th brings a massive 13ft WSW swell, but that’s getting hammered by 40-45 km/h cross-onshore winds. The energy reading is a colossal 7844, but with that wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. This is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. This rough, windy pattern clings on through Monday, Tuesday, and into Wednesday the 15th. There’s a bit of a gap from Saturday the 11th right through to Thursday the 16th with nothing really recommended for a good paddle.

We finally see a glimmer of hope on Friday the 17th. The morning brings a clean, 4ft SW swell with an offshore wind from the ENE at 20 km/h. The afternoon is even better — 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, and light offshore easterlies at 10 km/h. Combined energy is over 1000, making for very good surf conditions. This is a promising call, but being a week and a half out, we keep a little caution.

Saturday the 18th is a decent follow-up day with clean 3-4ft surf and a light offshore breeze in the afternoon.

Sunday the 19th afternoon is another surprise: the swell drops to 3ft, but it’s from the SW with a very long 19-second period and a light cross-off wind. That long period on a reef should produce some fun, lined-up little waves.

The following week, from Monday the 20th onward, the outlook gets mixed. You’ll see some small, clean-ish days but the winds start to blow onshore again from Tuesday the 21st, bringing lumpy conditions. The final days around the 22nd and 23rd of July are looking pretty average with moderate onshore flow and choppy seas.

So, to wrap it up: your absolute best bet is Wednesday the 8th of July for that glassy, solid SW groundswell. Friday the 17th is your next best shout for clean offshore wind in the arvo. The rest of the time, you’ll be picking through less-than-perfect conditions.

Stay stoked.
Rusty.

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