Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 4,774 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 10s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.
To be straight up with you, this is a tough stretch. We’ve got a long, grim run of no good surf ahead. The models are showing a whole lot of wind and messy conditions with barely a window to get excited about. We’re looking at a solid 15-day gap of poor conditions before anything even remotely worthwhile shows up. The first real opportunity to paddle out isn’t until Monday the 3rd of August.
Flynns Reef is the only break on the cards, and for the bulk of the forecast, it’s a write-off. The water temp is sitting around 56°F, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no surprises there.
From Sunday the 19th through to the end of July, it’s a battle. The wind is mostly cross, cross-on, or straight onshore, and it’s often blowing a gale. The swell is there, but it’s ugly. We see a big pulse of energy coming in around Thursday the 23rd of July, with combined energy hitting 5780 (strong to very strong), and swell heights pushing 10ft, but the wind is howling onshore at 31 mph. That’s a total blown-out mess, and honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The period is decent at 14 seconds, but it doesn’t matter when the wind is that bad. The rest of the week is the same story – big swell, awful wind. Not worth a second look.
Then we finally get a little window. On Monday the 3rd of August, the wind swings offshore from the East at 22 mph. That’s fresh and clean. The swell is 4ft from the West-Southwest, with a very long period of 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is 2397 (strong). Now, a period that long at a reef break like Flynns is a beautiful thing. It’ll mean long, lined-up waves with plenty of power. The downside is that offshore wind that fresh will make it a bit of a battle to get out, and the crowds will be there. It’s not a perfect 10 – the score is a marginal one – but after two weeks of nothing, it’s the only game in town. This is the standout.
If you’re a confident surfer with a big paddle, Monday the 3rd of August at Flynns is your shot. Get there. Just be prepared for a crowd, because everyone else will be doing the same thing.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (fresh winds from the W on Wed afternoon, near gales from the WSW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 228 | 172 | 111 | 361 | 331 | 251 | 639 | 495 | 346 | 240 | 469 | 1249 | 2671 | 3532 | 4774 | 2238 | 2516 | 2633 | 2445 | 1922 | 1185 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 3:26PM2.51m | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | 7:02AM2.04m | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:43PM0.34m | 9:51AM0.38m | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | ||||||||
 | |  | | |  |  | | |  |  |  | | | | |  | | | | | |
 | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | — | WSW 18 | — | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 13 |
| kJ | 228 | 172 | 87 | 361 | 331 | 251 | 639 | 495 | 346 | 240 | — | 32 | — | 3532 | 2567 | 2238 | 2516 | — | — | — | 1185 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | S 10 | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | E 10 | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | SSW 13 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 17 | 60 | 111 | 2 | — | 13 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | 32 | — | 253 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SW 11 | — | WSW 12 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 40 | 37 | 29 | — | 14 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | WNW 4 | NW 4 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 4 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 469 | 1249 | 2671 | 2216 | 4774 | 21 | 22 | 2633 | 2445 | 1922 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 69 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 451 | 70 | 101 | 101 | 469 | 73 | 69 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Flynns Reef surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest