Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 26 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 6,285 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for Flynns Reef, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough start. The first week is a write-off, thanks to relentless wind. Gonna feel like a long wait, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel.
From now through the end of July, and into the first few days of August, the wind is just howling. We’re seeing cross-shore and cross-onshore winds up to 37 mph, with wave energy climbing into the thousands (up to 6285). The swell is there, but it’s a mess – blown out, choppy, lumpy. Not worth paddling out.
The first real chance for a surf comes on Saturday, August 1st. The wind drops, and we get a window of clean conditions. The swell is small, just 2ft to 3ft from the SW, but with a very long period of 18 seconds, it’s a proper groundswell. The wave energy is moderate (449 to 588). The wind goes glassy on Saturday afternoon – that’s a major positive. It’s a low-key session, but a good one to ease back into it.
The standout period, the one you’ve been waiting for, is the first week of August. Thursday the 6th is a good day, with offshore winds and 4ft of SW swell, but the real gem is Friday, August 7th. That morning, we’ve got 5ft of SW swell with a very long 19-second period, clean with a moderate offshore breeze. The wave energy is substantial at 1992. This is a classic reef break setup – the long period will make for some beautiful, bowling walls. The water temp is 56°F with a normal anomaly, so about average for this time of year. This is a quality session, though the swell size is manageable for experienced surfers – it’s not too big, not too small. Later in the afternoon, the wind picks up strong, so get out there early.
There’s still a bit of fun on offer into the second week. Saturday, August 8th, looks clean again with a glassy afternoon and 3ft to 4ft SW swell. It’s a smaller but very clean option. The following Sunday, the 9th, is marginal with some cross-chop but has a flash of long-period energy. The window closes again after that with more wind and rain moving in by the 10th and 11th.
So, to sum it up: the first week is a total bust. Your best bet is the morning of Friday, August 7th, with the morning of Saturday, August 8th as a close second. It’s a long wait, but there’s a couple of beautiful days in there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NNW on Mon morning, near gales from the SW by Wed morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Thu afternoon, calm by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 228 | 357 | 480 | 411 | 882 | 1547 | 6285 | 5157 | 2317 | 1083 | 1204 | 546 | 367 | 273 | 252 | 252 | 310 | 1713 | 1252 | 1029 | 1651 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:51PM1.82m | 10:50AM1.93m | 9:54PM1.78m | 11:49AM1.99m | 11:02PM1.78m | 12:40PM2.07m | 00:06AM1.81m | 1:23PM2.15m | 1:03AM1.87m | 2:01PM2.23m | 1:54AM1.94m | 2:35PM2.28m | 2:41AM2.02m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:25PM1.22m | 3:45AM0.55m | 4:35PM1.22m | 4:45AM0.55m | 5:43PM1.17m | 5:42AM0.52m | 6:42PM1.07m | 6:34AM0.50m | 7:30PM0.94m | 7:21AM0.48m | 8:11PM0.80m | 8:05AM0.47m | 8:48PM0.66m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | | |  | |  | | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — |
 | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 228 | 357 | 480 | 411 | 882 | 1547 | — | — | — | 1083 | 1204 | 546 | 367 | 273 | 252 | 167 | 161 | 1713 | 1252 | 1029 | 1651 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | — | SSW 17 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 75 | — | — | 27 | 565 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 18 | 63 | 97 | 252 | 310 | 188 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | SW 19 | SSW 18 | SW 21 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 15 | 30 | 117 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 4 | NW 4 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 6 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 |
| kJ | 2 | 4 | 14 | 56 | 36 | 27 | 6285 | 5157 | 2317 | 101 | 732 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 8 | 17 | 21 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 12 | 84 | 265 | 491 | 469 | 484 | 776 | 73 | 69 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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