Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 23 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 3,629 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 23 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 23) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Wed 23rd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Wed 23rd Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 16th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right now, this stretch is looking pretty grim, to be honest. The surf is on the way down and the wind is all over the shop for the first week or so. That Saturday the 20th looks like a total write-off with a strong breeze and messy chop. We’ve got a solid, long-period SW groundswell showing up around the 21st and 22nd, but the wind is going to be ruining it, blowing cross-onshore and chopping it up. It’s a real shame because the size is there, but it’s just not going to be surfable for Flynns Reef (a standout spot, but it’s a reef, so it needs some order to the water).
The best bet in this window is looking like Sunday the 22nd afternoon. The swell is still pumping at 8ft, coming from the SW with a 16-second period, and we finally get a bit of a cross-off breeze. It’s still pretty big, but the water is going to be cleaner. I’d give that a shout. But it’s still a lot of water for anyone but the most experienced out there.
After that, it drops off. There’s a tiny window of glassy, clean conditions on Friday the 25th, but the swell has faded to just 2ft. It’s surfable for a log, but only just.
Looking ahead into the second week, there’s another pulse of long-period SW energy building for the 26th, but the wind is back to being cross-shore and messing things up. By the time October rolls around, we’re looking at a near-gale blowing straight onshore with rain. Honestly, the whole thing is looking blown out. The energy will be there at times, but the conditions are just not making it work. It’s a frustrating outlook.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Sat afternoon, near gales from the WSW by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4054 | 3629 | 1875 | 924 | 951 | 639 | 849 | 1428 | 1077 | 984 | 1037 | 970 | 511 | 431 | 1381 | 1302 | 2083 | 2140 | 2453 | 2973 | 2008 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 3:03PM2.30m | 3:48AM2.37m | 3:38PM2.27m | 4:26AM2.32m | 4:12PM2.21m | 5:03AM2.24m | 4:45PM2.14m | 5:41AM2.14m | 5:20PM2.05m | 6:23AM2.04m | 5:57PM1.95m | 7:10AM1.95m | 6:41PM1.85m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:23PM0.17m | 9:46AM0.64m | 9:59PM0.19m | 10:22AM0.71m | 10:35PM0.25m | 10:57AM0.79m | 11:11PM0.34m | 11:33AM0.89m | 11:49PM0.44m | 12:13PM0.98m | 00:31AM0.54m | 1:00PM1.07m | 1:19AM0.64m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — |
 | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 4054 | 3629 | 1875 | 924 | 951 | 639 | 849 | 1428 | 1077 | 984 | 1037 | 970 | 511 | 431 | — | 1302 | 2083 | 2140 | 2453 | 2973 | 2008 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 51 | 379 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 808 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | SSW 5 | SW 5 | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | SW 12 | — | — | — | — | SE 3 | E 4 |
| kJ | 2648 | 2390 | 103 | 34 | 66 | — | 18 | 20 | 19 | 16 | — | — | 29 | 26 | 1381 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 27 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 126 | 126 | 2 | 69 | 84 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 101 | 70 | 2 | 2 | 84 | 73 | 84 | 2 | 126 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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