Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 3,603 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Fri 14th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m gonna give you the straight-up local outlook for Flynns Reef. We’ve got a 16-day window, but let’s be real – there’s a heap of dross to wade through before we get to any decent waves.
The forecast kicks off on Thursday, the 13th of August, with a solid 8ft SW swell packing a massive punch of energy (3212) – that’s some serious power. But the wind is a cross-on from the WNW at 15 mph, and it’s choppy. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there. Honestly, Thursday and Friday are a write-off for a clean surf. The swell is big, but it’s messy. We’re looking at a long gap of poor to marginal conditions right through until the end of the week.
Now, we finally get a little hope. The standout of the whole outlook is Sunday, the 16th of August, morning. The swell has dropped to a very manageable 4ft from the SW, but the key is the wind – it’s a clean cross-off from the ENE at 9 mph. The water will be glassy, and the wave energy is moderate (737). This is your best bet for a proper session. The afternoon looks good too, with a light SSE breeze.
Monday, the 17th, is also a solid option. The morning sees a true offshore wind from the ENE (9 mph) with a 4ft SW swell. The waves will be clean and lined up. The afternoon is even better, with a 4ft SW swell and a 16-second period – that’s a long period groundswell, which means great shape and energy, but be aware it can make the reef a bit more shifty. The energy is still moderate (909).
Tuesday, the 18th, holds some clean surf too, with a 3ft to 4ft SW swell and light cross-off winds. It’s not a giant, but it’s clean and fun. After that, the swell backs right off into the 19th and 20th, so we’re looking at a few days of nothing much.
There’s a bit of a tease for Monday, the 24th of August. The morning is marginal with a 4ft SW swell and onshore wind, but the afternoon is a gem. The wind goes glassy – absolutely flat calm – and the swell is still 4ft from the SW. That’s a rare, clean window. The energy is moderate (722). This is your second standout.
The end of the run gets wild. The 26th of August shows a massive 10ft swell from the WSW with a 17-second period and a near-gale force wind. That’s huge energy (8209), but it’s a complete mess with onshore winds. That’s not for paddle surfing – that’s a kite surfer’s dream. The rest of the month is a mix of onshore and cross-shore winds with dropping swell, so it’s mainly a washout.
Bottom line: Sunday the 16th morning is your best wave of the month – clean, a decent size, and good energy. Monday the 24th afternoon is your dark horse, if the glassy conditions hold. Everything else is a struggle.
Stay frothy,
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
3212 | 2668 | 2702 | 2475 | 2266 | 2102 | 1610 | 1500 | 1108 | 726 | 650 | 499 | 506 | 909 | 715 | 535 | 398 | 344 | 132 | 132 | 128 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | 1:33PM2.37m | 1:48AM2.24m | 2:17PM2.42m | 2:42AM2.31m | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | 3:35PM2.41m | 4:16AM2.31m | 4:11PM2.36m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | 7:05AM0.30m | 7:45PM0.51m | 7:59AM0.34m | 8:33PM0.35m | 8:47AM0.41m | 9:17PM0.24m | 9:31AM0.49m | 9:58PM0.19m | 10:12AM0.59m | 10:36PM0.20m | ||||||||
7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | |
— | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
3212 | 2668 | 2702 | 2475 | 2266 | 2102 | 1610 | 1500 | 1108 | 726 | 650 | 499 | 506 | 909 | 715 | 535 | 398 | 344 | 132 | 132 | 128 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 5 | SSE 5 | — | SE 4 | — | — | SW 19 | — | ESE 4 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 | SW 20 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 2 | — | 3 | — | — | 125 | — | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | — | — | — | — | SE 6 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 5 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | — | SE 6 | E 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 2 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 6 | — | 8 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











