
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,433 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 10s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at the forecast for Flynns Reef. It’s a reef break that’s consistent and fairly exposed to the swell, and it’s an advanced wave. The water’s sitting at 56° which is right on the money for this time of year.
Right now, and for the next week or so, it’s a bit of a messy story. The swell’s coming through, but the wind’s been a mongrel – mostly NNW through to WNW, and it’s cross-on or onshore, making things choppy and lumpy. The early part of the week, from the 20th to the 24th, is a write-off, with poor surf conditions and the combined energy climbing from 365 to over 3800, but the wind’s just ruining it. The swell’s pushing 3ft to 8ft with a period around 12-16 seconds, but it’s all blown out.
Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th see some solid SW groundswell building – 7ft to 8ft, period 14-16 seconds – but the wind’s howling onshore, over 25 mph, and it’s messy. The energy’s strong (1875 to 3839) but it’s not paddleable. For a reef break, it’s looking more like a kite session than a surf session if you’re keen.
The weekend of the 25th and 26th stays big, with 10ft Saturday morning dropping to 6ft Sunday, but still onshore or cross-on. The energy’s massive (4764) then dropping, but no quality.
Then, from the 28th, things start to change. Tuesday the 28th has a cross-shore wind and solid 5ft swell with 16-second period, but the wind’s making it messy. The afternoon bumps up to a marginal 1/10, hinting at a possible tide window.
Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday the 29th of July is the pick of the bunch. The morning looks clean, with a gentle NNE breeze blowing cross-offshore, and the swell’s a nice 5ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is strong (1943), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is a top-quality window. The afternoon turns a bit cross-on and glassy, but still decent. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.
The first week of August also has potential. Saturday the 1st of August morning has offshore winds and a 8ft SW swell (16-second period) – clean, but the afternoon builds to a massive 13ft with cross-shore wind. That’s too big for this break, even for experts. Sunday the 2nd stays big (12ft, 17-second period) and offshore in the morning, but again, it’s too large. The energy is through the roof (7493-7395).
Monday the 3rd of August is promising for the morning: 8ft SW swell, 16-second period, and glassy with a light offshore. That’s a clean, powerful wave for advanced surfers, but it’s a bit big. Tuesday the 4th has offshore winds and 8ft swell, but it’s also big.
So, the long-range standouts are the 29th of July morning, and keep an eye on the 3rd of August morning if you’re an expert. The rest of the run is wind-affected or too big. For a reef break, the long-period groundswells (16-17 seconds) will be lining up nicely, but the size is a factor.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Thu morning). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
361 | 398 | 251 | 648 | 509 | 260 | 282 | 706 | 964 | 1875 | 2785 | 3720 | 3544 | 2851 | 2390 | 3041 | 1446 | 1936 | 800 | 661 | 250 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | 7:02AM2.04m | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | 8:46AM1.93m | 7:57PM1.89m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | 2:23PM1.16m | 2:49AM0.52m | ||||||||
7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 4 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 3 |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | — | — | SSW 18 | — | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 |
361 | 398 | 251 | 648 | 509 | 260 | 282 | 215 | — | — | 32 | — | 3544 | 2851 | 2390 | 1723 | — | 1107 | 800 | 661 | 250 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 3 | WSW 15 | SW 18 | — | — | — | E 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | — |
1 | 283 | 12 | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 295 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2 | 14 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | NW 3 | — | SW 6 |
1 | — | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 706 | 964 | 1875 | 2785 | 3720 | — | 16 | 16 | 3041 | 1446 | 1936 | 4 | — | 113 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 69 | 70 | 69 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 451 | 449 | 73 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 10 | 70 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










