Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,402 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey crew, Rusty checkin' in. Let's break down what Flynns Reef has in store.
First off, you have to be patient. From now through Friday, July 24th, the ocean is angry. We have a lot of rain and howling winds making the ocean lumpy and unrideable. Don't even think about paddling out.
The whole weekend and start of the following week is the same story. There's plenty of wave energy out there, with power readings over 4400 on Saturday the 25th, but strong onshore winds are just wreckin' every wave. It’s a real bummer.
The tide starts to turn on Wednesday, July 29th. The wind cleans up, going cross-offshore. Wednesday afternoon is where it’s at. A gentle breeze from the SE makes for clean conditions, and we’ve got 5ft surf from the SW with a 15-second period. That is legitimate groundswell with solid energy (1581), and on a reef setup like Flynns, this is your best chance for a session worth rememberin'. Mark it down.
Thursday, July 30th, is good too with offshore winds, but the swell is already droppin' down to about 4 to 4ft. By Friday the 31st, it’s glassy but tiny – maybe 2ft on a good one.
The first week of August, the swell builds again but the wind stays tricky. The 5th and 6th see some big numbers again, with a 6ft SW groundswell and a very long 17-second period, but you’ve got near-gale winds blowin' over 30 mph. That kind of power in the water with that much wind, even if it’s cross-offshore, is for experts only. The water temp is around 56°F, which is about normal for this time of year.
So here's the takeaway: your window is small but sweet. Wednesday the 29th of July, especially the afternoon, is your standout day. Get out there if you can.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Wed afternoon). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the WSW on Wed night, near gales from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 545 | 652 | 2350 | 2643 | 4834 | 3729 | 2633 | 1968 | 2827 | 1144 | 1362 | 475 | 523 | 584 | 617 | 617 | 1103 | 1500 | 1643 | 1331 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | 7:02AM2.04m | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | 8:46AM1.93m | 7:57PM1.89m | 9:46AM1.91m | 8:51PM1.82m | 10:50AM1.93m | 9:54PM1.78m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | 2:23PM1.16m | 2:49AM0.52m | 3:25PM1.22m | 3:45AM0.55m | 4:35PM1.22m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  |  | | | |  | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — |
mm | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5 |
Temp °C | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | SW 15 | — | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 235 | 77 | — | 32 | 149 | — | 2633 | 1968 | 1594 | — | 773 | 475 | 523 | 584 | 617 | 617 | 1103 | 1500 | 1643 | 1331 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | — | SW 15 | — | SSW 15 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | 36 | — | 128 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | WNW 4 | WNW 4 | NW 3 | WNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | — |
| kJ | 545 | 652 | 2350 | 2643 | 4834 | 3729 | 709 | 16 | 2827 | 1144 | 1362 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 3 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 73 | 73 | 73 | 451 | 73 | 70 | 451 | 101 | 70 | 73 | 10 | 70 | 70 | 10 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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