
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 3,232 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, I’m lookin’ at Flynns Reef here, and I gotta be straight up – this 16-day stretch is gonna test your patience. The setup is a reef break (Flynns Reef) that’s fairly exposed to a south-west swell, but the wind gods are just not playing ball for a solid run of clean waves.
We kick off Monday, July 20th, and it’s already a write-off. A solid 3ft south-west groundswell is rolling in with a long 16-second period, carrying a good 367 units of energy – but it’s all ruined by a fresh 30 km/h cross-on north-northwest wind. The surface is lumpy and choppy. It’s frustrating because you can feel the power’s there, but it’s messy.
That pattern holds into Tuesday (21st) and Wednesday (22nd). The swell hangs around 3ft to 4ft, still from the SW, but that cross-shore wind keeps everything crossed-up and grovelly. Wednesday afternoon brings a jump to 5ft and a strong onshore wind—just ugly.
Thursday the 23rd really ramps up. We’re talking 8ft to 8ft of south-west swell, pushing the combined energy into the thousands (2247 units Thursday morning, 2382 in the arvo). But it comes with 40-50 km/h winds straight onshore – that’s near-gale territory. This is massive, raw, and blown-out. Only for absolute experts, and even then it’s slop. The water temp is about average for the season.
Friday the 24th is the peak of this messy run: 8ft swells with 4420 units of energy, but a 50 km/h cross-on wind is gonna make it a washing machine. Saturday and Sunday settle a little, with swell dropping from 8ft back to 4ft, but the wind barely lets up. There’s a glimmer late Sunday afternoon when the wind drops to light onshore and the swell is 4ft – it’s still marginal, a 1 out of 10 from the guides.
Then we hit a proper lull. From Monday the 27th right through to Friday the 31st, it’s a mess of strong winds and poorly directed swell. Not worth paddling out.
Now, right at the very end of the period, things get interesting. On Monday, August 3rd, we see the first real quality window. The swell is modest – 3ft from the south-west – but look at the wind: a gentle 15 km/h cross-off breeze from the northeast. The guides call it “clean” and give it a 2 out of 10 (which for this wave-starved stretch is gold). The energy is still moderate at 363 units, with a nice 14-second period. This is your standout moment. Tuesday the 4th keeps that promise with a 4ft south-west groundswell and a clean offshore. If you can wait that long, this is your session.
For a break that’s rated for advanced surfers, you need that clean face. The rare, clean, glassy windows here are worth it, but you’ll have to earn it. Get in the water on that Monday the 3rd.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun night, min 10°C on Wed afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun night, fresh winds from the W by Wed afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 8°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Thu night, moderate winds from the WSW by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
112 | 361 | 398 | 251 | 573 | 495 | 346 | 282 | 734 | 1208 | 2247 | 2350 | 3013 | 2697 | 2999 | 3031 | 2042 | 1521 | 888 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | 7:02AM2.04m | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:51AM0.38m | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | |||||||
— | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Temp °C | 14 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | — | — | — | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 12 |
112 | 361 | 398 | 251 | 573 | 495 | 346 | 282 | — | — | — | 32 | 91 | 2697 | 1421 | — | — | — | 888 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 4 | SW 15 | SW 18 | — | — | — | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — |
111 | 1 | 226 | 13 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 216 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | S 10 | SSW 10 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
29 | 2 | 9 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 2 | NNW 3 | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | NW 4 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | — |
1 | 3 | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 734 | 1208 | 2247 | 2350 | 3013 | 16 | 2999 | 3031 | 2042 | 1521 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 75 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 451 | 73 | 101 | 101 | 84 | 73 | 84 | 4 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










