Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 2,724 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 10s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for us.
Alright, we’ve got a real mixed bag on the cards for Flynns Reef. The forecast kicks off with a sweet, clean window Friday afternoon, the 17th of July. That’s the standout. But after that, it’s a long, rough stretch.
The opening act is a beauty. Friday afternoon: clear skies, glassy as, with a 5ft swell straight out of the SW, a solid 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell, long and powerful. The combined energy is strong at 1330. Water temp is 56°, bang on average for this time of year. This is a reef break, and that kind of long-period groundswell loves a reef – it’ll bend and throw some proper shape. The wind is glass, absolute perfection. For advanced surfers, this is the call. Best to get on it early, because it’s often crowded here.
Now, the bad news. Saturday morning, the 18th, it drops off quick. The wind shifts NW, blowing cross-on, and the quality goes. Saturday afternoon cleans up again with glassy conditions and a 4ft SW swell, but by then the energy is moderate at 656. Still a fun wave, but not the stand-out.
Then we hit a wall. From Sunday the 19th right through to the end of the month, it’s pretty grim. We’re looking at a solid 10-day stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The swell sticks around, but the wind is a constant problem – mostly cross-onshore, fresh to strong breezes, sometimes even near gale strength. The water gets lumpy, choppy, and messy. There’s a big pulse of energy on the 24th of July, with a 10ft WSW swell and a 16-second period, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it a lumpy, blown-out mess. That’s not for the fainthearted – it’s big (over 8ft, so experts only) and ugly. Honestly, that setup for a reef looks more like a kite-surfing zone than a clean paddle session.
The waves do get smaller again, but the wind just keeps hammering. The first week of August doesn’t look any better with strong cross-shore winds.
So, the call: Your only real window is Friday afternoon, the 17th of July. That’s it. Get out there for that glassy, 5ft SW groundswell. After that, it’s a long wait for the wind to finally ease up. Could be a blank run that’s a bit normal for this spot when the trade winds lock in. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a one-session week.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Tue afternoon, fresh winds from the WSW by Wed afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 871 | 791 | 656 | 374 | 228 | 172 | 112 | 361 | 331 | 251 | 529 | 495 | 346 | 172 | 371 | 897 | 1580 | 1344 | 1220 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 1:54AM2.24m | 2:43PM2.51m | 2:53AM2.27m | 3:26PM2.51m | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:13AM0.14m | 8:55PM0.46m | 9:04AM0.25m | 9:43PM0.34m | 9:51AM0.38m | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | |  |  | | | | |  |  |  | | | |
 | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3 | 6 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | E 10 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 871 | 791 | 656 | 374 | 228 | 172 | 112 | 361 | 331 | 251 | 529 | 495 | 346 | 172 | 2 | 148 | 1580 | 1344 | 1220 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SSW 12 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | W 4 | SW 15 | SE 11 | — | — | — | SW 8 | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 15 | 17 | 60 | 111 | 1 | 226 | 5 | — | — | — | 65 | — | — | — | — | 91 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | — | SSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 40 | 60 | 45 | — | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | — | — | NW 4 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | — | 5 | 6 | 7 | 371 | 897 | — | — | 12 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 69 | 73 | 10 | 84 | 84 | 4 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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