Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 06 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 8,803 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Tue 8th Sep)4.5ft (1.4m) 14s
Best Surf 1AM (Sat 12th Sep)5.5ft (1.7m) 16s
Most Powerful10PM (Wed 9th Sep)13ft (4.0m) 18s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe.

We’ve got a tricky run ahead at Flynns Reef, with a lot of wind and messy conditions to work through before we see anything clean. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year. The first good news doesn’t show up until Saturday the 12th of September, and even then, we’re only looking at a short window of quality.

Right now and through the rest of this week, it’s pretty grim. The next few days are plagued by strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy surf. On Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th, you’re looking at 5 ft to 6 ft of SW swell, but with winds howling from the SSW at 22 mph to 19 mph, it’s all cross-chop and poor conditions. The energy is moderate to strong (1191 to 446), but the period is all over the place, with that Monday afternoon showing a short, weak 7-second period that won’t do anything good. Forget it.

Tuesday the 8th teases us a bit – morning has 3 ft of SW swell but a very long 18-second period and a light offshore from the WNW. The energy is strong (1136), and that long period groundswell could be clean at a reef, but the height is marginal. Tuesday afternoon bumps up to 5 ft but the wind goes cross-on again. It’s a maybe, not a go.

Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are pure chaos – we’re looking at 10 ft to 12 ft of SW swell with strong winds hitting 25 mph to 31 mph. The energy is through the roof (up to 9573), but this is only for experts, and with that much cross-onshore wind, it’s blown-out and dangerous. Not worth paddling out unless you’re on a jet ski.

Friday the 11th is still poor, with 6 ft to 5 ft of SW swell and moderate to gentle cross-onshore winds keeping it choppy.

The Standout – Saturday the 12th of September: This is the clear winner. Morning brings 5 ft of SW swell with a nice 16-second period and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNE at 6 mph. That’s clean. The energy is strong (1164), and it’s going to be lined up. Afternoon is even better – the swell drops slightly to 5 ft but the wind goes near glassy from the SE at just 3 mph, with a 15-second period. This is your window for the whole run. Get in the water. Expect some company though, as crowds are often a factor here.

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th fall apart again – strong NNW and W winds up to 31 mph bring messy, blown-out surf with shorter period swells. Not worth it.

Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th see 6 ft to 7 ft of SW swell, but the wind stays cross-on. The period improves (12 to 14 seconds) and the energy is solid (up to 1550), but the quality is marginal. A surfer could get waves, but it won’t be clean.

Thursday the 17th through Saturday the 19th of September is another rough patch – strong winds from the NNW and WNW, with swell building to 10 ft and energy hitting 4652. The cross-chop is messy and blown-out. This is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Final promising window – Monday the 21st of September: The morning is still marginal with 7 ft of SW swell and a cross-on breeze. But the afternoon? That’s the second standout. The swell stays at 7 ft with a 14-second period, and the wind swings light cross-offshore from the ESE at 6 mph. The energy is strong (2193), and the conditions are rated excellent for experienced surfers. This one’s a keeper, but it’s a long way off – keep an eye on it.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a write-off. The best surf on offer is Saturday the 12th of September, with clean conditions and solid groundswell. Monday the 21st of September afternoon is the other one to circle. Everything else is either too windy, too big, or too messy. Stay patient.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, strong winds from the SSW by Tue night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 7°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri night).

Sun
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
3
3
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
14
1.6
WSW
12
1.6
SW
12
1.7
SW
7
0.6
SW
20
1.3
SW
13
1.6
SW
17
1.9
SW
16
3
SW
16
3
SW
18
3.5
SW
18
3.5
SW
17
3
SW
16
2
SW
16
1.7
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.7
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.5
SW
15
1.3
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1063
727
761
293
264
540
1555
1694
3784
5973
6779
5760
4282
1856
1212
1020
1402
1164
962
668
Wind (km/h)
15
SW
25
W
35
SSW
30
SSW
15
SSW
10
WNW
15
SW
35
SW
40
SSW
40
SW
35
SW
25
WSW
30
WSW
25
WSW
20
SW
15
SW
0
WSW
10
NNE
5
SE
20
N
Wind State
cross-on
on
cross
cross
cross
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
High Tide
5:41PM2.26m
6:59AM2.21m
6:33PM2.18m
8:00AM2.12m
7:35PM2.08m
9:08AM2.07m
8:51PM2.00m
10:18AM2.07m
10:16PM1.99m
11:22AM2.11m
11:35PM2.06m
12:16PM2.17m
00:42AM2.17m
Low Tide
00:19AM0.12m
12:46PM0.92m
1:16AM0.23m
1:48PM0.99m
2:20AM0.35m
3:02PM1.00m
3:33AM0.45m
4:21PM0.91m
4:47AM0.51m
5:32PM0.76m
5:55AM0.53m
6:30PM0.57m
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
6:06
 mm
1
1
Temp °C
13
13
12
11
10
10
11
12
11
12
12
11
12
11
9
9
9
13
17
16
Feels °C
9
8
4
4
5
6
5
4
1
3
3
6
7
5
4
6
7
10
14
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Flynns Reef:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Flynns Reef surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest