Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and get you onto the good stuff. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but the opening days are going to test your patience. For the first part of the run, the wind’s mostly cross-onshore and lumpy, and the swell energy is all over the shop – weak to moderate at best (212 to 1121). The water’s sitting at 55°F, which is spot on for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

The first real glimmer shows up on Friday afternoon, the 7th. We’ve got a 4ft SW swell with a 15-second period – proper groundswell – and the wind turns light cross-offshore, which means clean lines at Flynns Reef (Big Island). The energy’s moderate (1194) and while it’s not huge, it’s the first taste of something worth paddling out for. It’s a reef, so that long period will hold up nicely.

Then, brace yourself – early next week the ocean decides to get angry. Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th see a big SW pulse push through, with swell heights jumping to 10ft and energy readings into the strong range (4266 to 4927). Problem is, the wind’s all over it – fresh cross-onshore or onshore – turning it into a mess. That’s expert-only territory, and even then it’s going to be lumpy. The period’s up to 18 seconds, so there’s serious power, but it won’t be pretty.

The real standout for me is Saturday the 15th. The swell’s sitting at 12ft from the SW with a 17-second period – that’s a long-period groundswell, and the energy reading is huge at 6328. Now, here’s the thing – that’s over the 8ft mark, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The wind’s light and cross-shore in the morning, which will keep it semi-rideable, but it’s pushing the limits of this break. The afternoon drops to 10ft with a light onshore, still chunky but with a bit more control.

If you want the cleanest session of the whole run, keep an eye on the following Sunday afternoon, the 16th. The swell backs off to 5ft from the SW, period’s 18 seconds – pure, long-period groundswell – and the wind goes glassy. Energy’s solidly moderate (1523) and the conditions are absolutely pristine. That’s the one I’d be marking on the calendar, but remember it’s more than a week out, so treat it as promising rather than locked in.

Before that, on Thursday the 14th afternoon, there’s a huge 13ft SW swell with 12-second period, and while the wind’s light, it’s just too big for this reef – only the most committed chargers would even think about it. The energy’s strong (4277) but it’s a no-go for most of us.

So, in short: the first few days are a washout, Friday the 7th gives you a clean but modest wave, next Monday and Tuesday are big and messy, Saturday the 15th is big and slightly more manageable, and Sunday the 16th afternoon is your golden ticket if you can wait. Watch the swell – it’s a reef, so when it’s over 8ft, you need to know what you’re doing.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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