Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m lookin’ at Flynns Reef here, and I gotta be straight up – this 16-day stretch is gonna test your patience. The setup is a reef break (Flynns Reef) that’s fairly exposed to a south-west swell, but the wind gods are just not playing ball for a solid run of clean waves.

We kick off Monday, July 20th, and it’s already a write-off. A solid 3ft south-west groundswell is rolling in with a long 16-second period, carrying a good 367 units of energy – but it’s all ruined by a fresh 30 km/h cross-on north-northwest wind. The surface is lumpy and choppy. It’s frustrating because you can feel the power’s there, but it’s messy.

That pattern holds into Tuesday (21st) and Wednesday (22nd). The swell hangs around 3ft to 4ft, still from the SW, but that cross-shore wind keeps everything crossed-up and grovelly. Wednesday afternoon brings a jump to 5ft and a strong onshore wind—just ugly.

Thursday the 23rd really ramps up. We’re talking 8ft to 8ft of south-west swell, pushing the combined energy into the thousands (2247 units Thursday morning, 2382 in the arvo). But it comes with 40-50 km/h winds straight onshore – that’s near-gale territory. This is massive, raw, and blown-out. Only for absolute experts, and even then it’s slop. The water temp is about average for the season.

Friday the 24th is the peak of this messy run: 8ft swells with 4420 units of energy, but a 50 km/h cross-on wind is gonna make it a washing machine. Saturday and Sunday settle a little, with swell dropping from 8ft back to 4ft, but the wind barely lets up. There’s a glimmer late Sunday afternoon when the wind drops to light onshore and the swell is 4ft – it’s still marginal, a 1 out of 10 from the guides.

Then we hit a proper lull. From Monday the 27th right through to Friday the 31st, it’s a mess of strong winds and poorly directed swell. Not worth paddling out.

Now, right at the very end of the period, things get interesting. On Monday, August 3rd, we see the first real quality window. The swell is modest – 3ft from the south-west – but look at the wind: a gentle 15 km/h cross-off breeze from the northeast. The guides call it “clean” and give it a 2 out of 10 (which for this wave-starved stretch is gold). The energy is still moderate at 363 units, with a nice 14-second period. This is your standout moment. Tuesday the 4th keeps that promise with a 4ft south-west groundswell and a clean offshore. If you can wait that long, this is your session.

For a break that’s rated for advanced surfers, you need that clean face. The rare, clean, glassy windows here are worth it, but you’ll have to earn it. Get in the water on that Monday the 3rd.

Rusty.

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