Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 6,340 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.
We’ve only got one spot in the mix: Flynns Reef. It’s an advanced reef break that’s consistently exposed to southwest swell. But I gotta be straight with you—this forecast is a rough one. There’s a big dry spell at the start. No real surf to get excited about until Thursday, September 10. That’s a whole week of poor conditions, nasty winds, and blown-out surf.
Then, on Thursday morning, September 10, things finally line up. Flynns Reef is showing a 2.4m (8ft) SW groundswell with a very long 18-second period. That’s proper groundswell with serious push. The combined energy is strong at 3997. Winds are light offshore from the west, which will groom the waves clean. For a reef like this, that long period is a good thing—it’ll wrap in with power and shape. At 8ft, it’s not for the timid, and crowds can be expected here. Water temps are pretty average for this time of year.
After that window, the wind turns mostly cross-onshore or onshore, keeping things just okay. The next best look is Friday, September 11 morning—a smaller 1.4m (4-5ft) SW swell with a 16-second period and light cross-shore breeze from the north. Not as clean but better than most of the junk around it.
Things go downhill again in the second week. Wednesday, September 16 morning pumps up to a massive 3.5m (12ft) from the WSW, with a huge combined energy of 7567. But the northwest wind is screaming at 45 km/h, cross-onshore. That’s not surfable for paddle boards—more like kite territory or just plain messy.
If you’re after the one true standout, it’s Thursday morning, September 10 at Flynns Reef. Clean conditions, strong SW groundswell, good period, and offshore wind. That’s your session.
Rusty, out.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Fri afternoon, near gales from the W by Sat afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat night, min 9°C on Tue morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Sun night, strong winds from the WSW by Tue afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2989 | 2390 | 3232 | 3760 | 3311 | 2901 | 2087 | 1339 | 2248 | 2272 | 1665 | 1014 | 528 | 268 | 529 | 623 | 616 | 1537 | 1185 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:49AM2.38m | 3:41PM2.34m | 4:32AM2.40m | 4:18PM2.34m | 5:17AM2.38m | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:47AM0.59m | 10:04PM0.09m | 10:27AM0.65m | 10:45PM0.05m | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 1914 | — | — | 3760 | 3311 | 2901 | 2087 | 1339 | — | — | 1665 | 1014 | 528 | 268 | 312 | 623 | 423 | 1537 | 1185 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 325 | — | — | — | — | 15 | 50 | 86 | 18 | 44 | 248 | 616 | 1107 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | S 20 | SSW 20 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 8 | 38 | 62 | 60 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | W 6 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | — | — | — | W 4 | SW 13 | SSW 6 | — | — | WSW 4 |
| kJ | 2989 | 2390 | 3232 | — | — | — | 10 | 229 | 2248 | 2272 | — | — | — | 9 | 529 | 77 | — | — | 35 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 61 | 73 | 73 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 82 | 529 | 484 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 484 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 469 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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