Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 4,505 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.3m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up for Flynns Reef. There’s a long wait ahead, but it’s worth sitting tight for.
First off, the water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much bang on what you’d expect for this time of year, so no need to dig out the extra rubber just yet.
The first few days are a write-off. Friday the 21st through to most of Saturday the 22nd is a mess – strong onshore winds, lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. You’ll be fighting the wind, not riding the waves. Not worth paddling out.
Then we get a glimmer. Sunday afternoon the 23rd is the standout. The wind drops right off: glassy conditions, with a solid 6ft groundswell out of the southwest, a long 15-second period. That’s a proper reef-swell pulse. The combined energy is a moderate 1503, and with that glassy surface, Flynns will be offering up some proper, clean lines. This is advanced territory, and it’s the best on offer in the whole run. Crowds are likely here, so get in early.
Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th are back to poor conditions, with cross-shore winds and chop. Nothing to write home about – the swell drops off into the 4ft-4ft range with weak energy.
Thursday the 27th afternoon shows a tiny 3ft glass-off, but with very low energy (481). It’ll be clean, but not much push.
We get another promising window on Friday the 28th. Morning shows a bigger 6ft+ southwest groundswell with a very long 17-second period, and combined energy of 2167. That’s a lot of power. But the winds are cross-shore, so it’s a bit of a gamble. The afternoon hangs in with 6ft but with light cross-onshore ripples. Could be rewarding if you find a peak.
The next week sees a few more marginal windows, but conditions are often choppy or onshore. The real highlight remains that Sunday afternoon the 23rd. If you can only make one call, that’s it.
After that, around the 5th of September, the wind absolutely cranks from the SSE at 37 mph. That’s a near-gale, and while it’s cross-offshore and clean, it’s serious wind. At that point, with the swell still around 6ft, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Tue afternoon, calm by Wed night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 19 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 472 | 1643 | 3511 | 2976 | 2247 | 1107 | 1456 | 1055 | 581 | 499 | 357 | 618 | 488 | 825 | 650 | 437 | 320 | 167 | 293 | 1059 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross | cross | off | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross | glassy | cross |
High Tide | 5:20PM2.19m | 6:21AM2.09m | 5:54PM2.09m | 7:05AM1.99m | 6:31PM1.99m | 7:57AM1.91m | 7:14PM1.89m | 8:58AM1.86m | 8:09PM1.80m | 10:05AM1.86m | 9:19PM1.75m | 11:09AM1.92m | 10:38PM1.75m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:51PM0.32m | 12:06PM0.92m | 00:30AM0.41m | 12:47PM1.03m | 1:13AM0.50m | 1:35PM1.13m | 2:04AM0.57m | 2:37PM1.20m | 3:03AM0.63m | 3:54PM1.21m | 4:09AM0.65m | 5:09PM1.14m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  | | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — |
 | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — |
mm | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 17 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 19 |
| kJ | 472 | 1643 | — | — | 2247 | 1107 | 1456 | 1055 | 581 | 499 | 357 | 618 | 488 | 825 | 650 | 437 | 320 | 167 | 293 | 1059 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | — | — | — | — | SW 17 | SSW 16 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | ESE 3 | SW 16 | — | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 22 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 70 | — | — | — | — | 505 | 47 | — | — | 15 | 51 | 2 | 171 | — | 58 | 49 | 91 | 75 | 174 | 320 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SSW 12 | — |
| kJ | 179 | — | — | — | — | 62 | — | — | — | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 14 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | WNW 4 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 3 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 157 | 19 | 3511 | 2976 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 69 | 73 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 73 | 70 | 73 | 131 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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