Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for Flynns Reef. This reef break is rated for advanced crew, and we’ve got a wild stretch of weather and swell ahead over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, you gotta be patient because the first several days are downright awful, but there’s a glimmer of something clean if you can wait it out.

The outlook kicks off with a real dud. All through the weekend and into the start of the week, from July 11th through the 14th, we’re stuck with a big, powerful southwest swell—hitting a solid 10 ft—but the wind is just blasting. Those north and northwesterlies are howling at 22 to 34 mph, slapping the swell onshore or cross-onshore. The water is warm enough at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, but you wouldn’t want to be out there. The combined wave energy is pumping at some massive numbers, like over 3900, but it’s all blown-out, messy junk. This is a reef setup, so with that much juice and bad wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing drama than a paddle session.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday morning the 16th start to drop off, with the swell easing from 6 ft down to 4 ft. The combined energy is still moderate to strong, around 736 to 1484, but the wind is still cross-onshore from the northwest or north-northwest. It’s choppy and marginal, not worth getting excited about.

Then, on Thursday afternoon July 16th, it’s like someone flipped a switch. The wind goes totally glassy out of the west-southwest at just 3 mph. The swell holds at a clean 4 ft from the southwest, with a 14-second period and combined wave energy of 726. That’s a proper long-period groundswell hitting a reef, which can shape up real nice but sometimes runs a bit straight for beach breaks—here on the reef it should be just right. This is the standout of the whole outlook: glassy, clean, and only for the advanced crew. Expect some crowds, as this spot can get popular when it’s working.

Friday July 17th keeps the good run going. Morning has a light cross-shore from the north at 6 mph with 6 ft SW swell and a very long 16-second period, energy at 1728. It’s a bit rippled but still decent. The afternoon is the real sweet spot: a clean cross-off breeze from the south-southeast at 6 mph, same 6 ft swell from the southwest. The energy is 1513—strong, but with that offshore wind and long period, it’s top-shelf conditions for experienced surfers. This Friday afternoon might just be the second best session on offer.

From Saturday the 18th onward, things get flaky again. The swell drops to 3–4 ft, periods shorten a bit, and cross-shore winds build back up. Combined energy weakens into the low hundreds and hundreds. There’s a brief marginal window on Tuesday afternoon July 21st with 6 ft WSW swell and a 13-second period (1379 energy), but it’s cross-shore from the south at 6 mph. Then another possible look on Wednesday July 22nd afternoon at 4 ft SW swell, but it’s still only light cross-shore.

Looking out further to late in the second week—Thursday July 23rd—we see a pulse of 8 ft SW swell with a 16-second period, energy hitting 3002. That’s a big, powerful groundswell, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the north. For a reef break, that’s far from ideal; you’d want lighter or offshore winds. It’s marginal at best, and the size puts it solidly in expert-only territory. After that, the final days of July into the 26th are just messy again with strong winds and dropping swell.

So, to keep it simple: Thursday afternoon July 16th is your best bet—glassy, clean, and 4 ft of groundswell. Friday July 17th afternoon is a close second with offshore winds and 6 ft. The rest? A whole lot of waiting and watching. Keep an eye on it, though—it won’t stay poor forever, and forecasts can turn.

Rusty.

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