Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's shaping up for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, with some real potential if you're patient.

The overall pattern is that we've got plenty of swell energy on the way – this reef is exposed to the southwest and it's going to cop it. But the wind is going to mess things up for a lot of the time. The good news is, there's a standout window that looks absolutely mint, especially if you're an experienced surfer.

Water temp is sitting at 57°F – that's about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so you might get away with a thinner wetsuit for the first session or two.

This week is a write-off, I'm not gonna lie. Saturday the 12th has some size – 6ft of SW groundswell (16-second period) – with a light breeze, but the forecast says it's "marginal" and the scores are low. Sunday and Monday get messy with fresh to moderate breezes, dropping swell, and chop. Tuesday the 15th is an absolute no-go; we've got rain showers and a near gale with 10ft of onshore slop. The combined energy is enormous (3140), but it's completely blown out.

Then it gets big. Wednesday the 16th sees 12ft of SW swell (14-second period), but it's just too big for this spot, and the cross-shore wind makes it lumpy. The energy reading is huge (6972) – that's serious power – but it's for experts only, and even then, the conditions aren't clean.

We get a bit of a break in the chaos Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, but it's either cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the quality low. There's a glimmer on Saturday the 19th with some size (5ft) but 25 mph cross-shore winds ruin it.

The real standout is Tuesday, the 22nd of September. Here's your window. Morning session is the one: we've got a clean 10ft SW groundswell (17-second period) with a gentle offshore breeze from the east. That's the recipe for perfection at a reef break like Flynns. The combined energy is over 5000 – that's proper, powerful groundswell. The long period (17 seconds) means those waves will be holding their shape beautifully here on the reef, with long lulls between sets making paddling out easier. This is advanced territory, for experienced surfers only – the swell size and power demand respect. The afternoon stays solid at 8ft with a cross-off breeze, still clean, but the morning is the pick.

After that, the breeze turns cross-shore and onshore again from the 23rd to the 26th, dropping the quality back down, before a final little pulse on Sunday the 27th with 8ft of very long-period swell (18 seconds) and a light breeze, but the tide and wind alignment look questionable.

So, to keep it simple: your best bet by a country mile is Tuesday morning the 22nd at Flynns Reef. Get there early for the offshore, 10ft, and jaws-like lines. It's a standout. Everything else in the 16-day run is compromised by wind or blown out entirely. Keep your eyes on that Tuesday window.

Rusty.

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