Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Issued: 3 am 03 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
14.1° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 2 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 6 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 3 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 6,465 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Mon 6th Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 15s
Best Surf 7AM (Mon 6th Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 15s
Most Powerful10AM (Fri 3rd Jul)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, Rusty here with a look at what we’ve got on the surf front. Let’s be straight with each other – this forecast is a long wait for a brief window of quality. There’s no surf worth paddling for until Sunday the 5th, so we’ve got a few days of watching the wind and waiting.

The standout window is Sunday morning, the 5th. After days of brutal onshore gales, the stars finally line up for Flynns Reef. We’ve got a solid 8ft SW groundswell rolling in with a very long 17-second period, packing a hell of a punch with a combined swell energy of 4810. That’s a serious amount of water moving. But the real magic is the wind – light offshore from the ESE at just 12 mph. That breeze will groom that big SW swell into clean, lined-up walls. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers only; at over 8ft, this is expert territory. The long period makes it a proper groundswell, which for a reef setup like this, means thick, powerful barrels and long rides. Expect crowds often at this spot on a day like this.

After that peak, Sunday afternoon sees the swell drop slightly to 7ft from the SSW, but the wind freshens and turns offshore, still clean but with more juice. The energy drops a notch to 2680.

Things drop right off Monday the 6th. We’re down to a smaller 4ft SW swell, though the period stays long at 15 seconds. Light cross-offshore breezes will keep it tidy, with combined energy at just 547. It’s clean, small, and fun for a longboard or a fish, but nothing compared to the Sunday morning freight train.

From Tuesday the 7th of July right through to the 18th, the outlook turns bleak. Wind swings onshore or howling cross-shore, making a mess of things. The swell fluctuates between 2ft and 12ft but it’s all blown out or chopped up. That big 12ft pulse on Wednesday the 15th is a perfect example – huge wave energy (8751) but with a strong cross-onshore wind, so it’s just a lumpy, dangerous closeout. I wouldn’t bother. This stretch is probably more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

So, for the crew willing to wait, Sunday morning the 5th is your shot. Be early, be ready, and be experienced. That’s the only real highlight in the whole 16-day run.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Fri morning, light winds from the NNE by Sun night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, fresh winds from the S by Tue night).

Friday
3
Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
3
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
3
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
14
2.3
SW
13
2.1
SW
13
2.2
SW
15
2.2
SW
17
2
SSW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
0.9
SW
17
1
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.3
SW
19
1.7
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.3
SW
15
1.3
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
6465
6158
2824
1776
1521
2010
2746
2296
1101
543
407
228
493
492
479
1099
1729
1109
927
685
897
Wind (km/h)
50
W
50
WSW
30
W
30
WSW
30
SW
25
S
25
ESE
35
ESE
25
ENE
10
NNE
5
ESE
15
N
15
NNW
15
NW
30
S
20
SSW
20
SSW
20
SSW
15
S
10
SSE
10
ENE
Wind State
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
2:28PM2.26m
2:09AM1.90m
3:03PM2.30m
2:54AM1.93m
3:36PM2.32m
3:37AM1.96m
4:08PM2.32m
4:21AM2.00m
4:39PM2.30m
5:06AM2.04m
5:11PM2.27m
5:54AM2.09m
5:47PM2.24m
Low Tide
8:36PM0.88m
8:24AM0.41m
9:15PM0.79m
9:02AM0.44m
9:51PM0.70m
9:40AM0.49m
10:26PM0.61m
10:19AM0.56m
11:01PM0.51m
11:00AM0.64m
11:38PM0.41m
11:45AM0.74m
00:19AM0.31m
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:37
7:37
7:37
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:08
5:09
5:09
5:10
5:10
5:12
5:12
 mm
2
1
1
Temp °C
13
12
12
12
12
11
10
10
9
11
12
12
10
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
Feels °C
3
2
4
5
5
5
4
2
5
9
10
9
6
8
8
6
6
5
7
8
6
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SW
15
2.2
SW
17
2
SSW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
0.9
SW
17
1
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.3
SW
19
1.7
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.3
SW
15
1.3
SW
16
Energy kJ
2010
2746
2296
1101
543
407
228
493
492
479
1099
1729
1109
927
685
897
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
SSW
16
0.9
SSW
16
0.4
SSE
5
0.3
SE
5
0.1
SE
5
0.3
SW
19
0.2
SSW
17
0.4
SW
22
0.9
SW
14
0.6
SSW
17
0.5
SW
5
0.3
SW
20
Energy kJ
1375
357
9
4
1
59
29
120
341
237
13
61
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.3
E
4
0.2
SSW
22
0.6
SSW
19
0.5
SW
19
Energy kJ
3
45
271
179
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
14
2.3
SW
13
2.1
SW
13
1.8
SSW
16
0.6
SE
5
1
SE
4
0.5
E
3
0.4
NE
3
0.6
NNW
3
0.6
W
5
0.8
WSW
5
Energy kJ
6465
6158
2824
1776
1521
1783
23
36
6
3
7
17
33
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
3
4
6
5
4
4
5
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
4
4
4
3
3
Distance (km)
314
73
73
73
84
2
1
111
48
0
0
0
2
2
73
2
2
2
2
0
0
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island
Rating
(10 max)
4
5
2
2
2
2
2
4
4
4
4
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
5
5
9
5
5
4
5
9
7
4
4
9
8
6
8
5
4
6
5
4
5
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
9
5
9
5
5
6
5
9
7
5
8
9
8
6
8
9
6
9
5
5
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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