Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 09 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.2° C
0.6° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 12 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, WSW swell with 4,762 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 10 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Monday (Aug 10) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Mon 10th Aug)3.5ft (1.0m) 16s
Best Surf10AM (Sat 15th Aug)6ft (1.8m) 15s
Most Powerful 7PM (Wed 12th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first few days are a bit of a write-off. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross-onshore and fresh, and while there’s some decent energy in the water (combined swell energy around 422), it’s just messy. We are looking at a gap of about 5 days before things start to turn.

Sunday the 11th and Monday the 12th are the same story – solid swell building, especially Monday with a big 5ft SW groundswell and some serious energy readings (1860 and 1658), but that wind is just going to ruin it. Those days are for the kite crew, not for paddling. The water temp is sitting at about 56°, which is pretty normal for this time of year – nothing to worry about there.

The first real window opens up on Saturday the 15th. The morning is looking promising at Flynns Reef. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell with a long 15-second period. The wind is a light SSE cross-off, keeping the surface clean. The combined energy is a healthy 1344, so there’s plenty of push. This is for experienced surfers though – that’s a meaty wave. Keep in mind, this break is a consistent reef, so expect it to be a bit of a paddle, but it’ll be worth it. Crowds are likely here.

Sunday the 16th morning is another good call. The swell drops a touch to 4ft from the SW, but the wind goes light offshore from the east. That means glassy, clean lines. The energy is still moderate at 716. This is a solid option for a Sunday session.

After that, we have a few days of smaller, cleaner conditions with light wind, but nothing that screams “drop everything.” The swell hangs around the 3ft to 4ft mark.

Now, here’s the long-range stand-out. If you can wait, look at Sunday the 23rd of August. The morning is showing a glassy surface with a 5ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is pumping at 1874. This is an excellent, clean, powerful swell for experienced surfers. The period is long enough to make paddling out easier between sets, and a long-period SW swell on a reef like Flynns will produce some proper, well-shaped walls. Just remember, it’s over a week away, so keep an eye on it – the long-range outlook is promising but less certain.

So, to wrap it up: the best on offer is hands down the morning of Saturday the 15th for a bigger, clean wave, and the long-range standout is the morning of Sunday the 23rd of August for what could be an absolute dream session at Flynns Reef.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun night, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Sun night, strong winds from the NNW by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Wed morning, light winds from the SW by Fri night).

Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
4
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
14
0.8
SW
13
1
SW
16
1.6
SW
19
1.6
SW
17
2.3
SW
16
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1.2
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
2.2
SW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
371
250
480
1713
1597
2668
528
506
822
1381
2438
3881
2093
1784
1808
1907
1907
1610
1344
1108
911
Wind (km/h)
30
NE
35
NNE
15
NNE
35
NW
45
WSW
40
W
30
NW
35
NNW
45
NNW
45
SW
25
W
25
WNW
25
W
15
NW
25
WNW
20
WNW
25
SW
15
WSW
15
SSE
20
SSE
15
ESE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
6:49PM2.20m
8:25AM2.16m
7:46PM2.14m
9:34AM2.14m
8:56PM2.08m
10:44AM2.16m
10:15PM2.05m
11:48AM2.22m
11:34PM2.09m
12:44PM2.30m
00:45AM2.16m
1:33PM2.37m
1:48AM2.24m
Low Tide
1:05PM0.96m
1:36AM0.14m
2:06PM1.04m
2:39AM0.18m
3:18PM1.08m
3:48AM0.22m
4:36PM1.02m
4:59AM0.25m
5:48PM0.89m
6:05AM0.27m
6:51PM0.70m
7:05AM0.30m
7:45PM0.51m
light rain
light rain
heavy rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
cloud
light rain
cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:13
7:11
7:11
7:09
7:07
7:07
7:05
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:36
5:37
5:37
5:38
5:39
5:40
5:42
 mm
4
5
17
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
Temp °C
11
13
14
9
13
13
11
12
11
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
Feels °C
5
5
8
2
5
5
3
4
1
3
6
5
7
10
8
8
6
8
9
6
8
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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