Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 02 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.5°C
0.9° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 7 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 6,101 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 7 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 07) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Mon 7th Sep)4.5ft (1.3m) 13s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 7th Sep)4.5ft (1.3m) 13s
Most Powerful10PM (Thu 3rd Sep)13ft (4.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Flynns Reef. This is a deep water reef setup that takes a solid SW groundswell, and we’ve got a big run of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a nightmare for the first week and a half. We’re looking at a long wait before things clean up, so patience is key.

The pattern starts with a proper pulse of SW groundswell arriving on Wednesday the 2nd of September. We’re talking about a 5ft swell with a very long 16-second period, and the combined energy is already pumping at 1050 (moderate). But, the wind is onshore from the WNW at 16 mph, and it’s just not happening. The water temperature is sitting at 56°, which is about normal for this time of year, with an anomaly of only 0.9°.

The next few days are a write-off. The swell builds through Thursday and Friday, peaking near 10ft with energy readings climbing into the thousands (3278 on Thursday arvo, 3311 Friday morning), but the wind is howling from the west and southwest, often at 19-25 mph, creating poor, lumpy, blown-out conditions. This is more of a kite session than a surf session. The wind stays strong over the weekend, with a near-gale on Saturday, so don’t even bother.

We finally get a slight break on Sunday the 6th of September. Swell drops to 6ft, period is still a quality 13 seconds, and the wind goes light and variable – offshore from the WNW at only 6 mph. The energy is at 1064 (moderate). The model calls it “marginal,” but with that light wind, the reef could offer a few clean ones. It’s a short window.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Thursday the 10th of September. After a week of punishment, the wind finally swings to the south at 9 mph, going cross-offshore. The swell is a solid 8ft from the SW, with a 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is huge at 3439 (strong). This is the best on offer. The wind is clean, the swell is powerful, and Flynns Reef will be handling it perfectly. This is for experienced surfers only, as 8ft on a reef is no joke. Crowds are likely here, as it often gets busy.

The rest of the outlook is a mixed bag. Friday the 11th has a smaller 5ft swell but the wind swings back to the NNW, creating cross-shore chop. The following week sees more onshore winds and lumpy surf, though Monday the 14th of September has a brief moment of offshore wind from the ESE at 12 mph, but the swell is small at 3ft. The last few days of the forecast show another big swell building on the 17th, with 10ft and 16-second period energy hitting 6689, but the wind is onshore again, which is a real shame.

So, to wrap it up: If you’re an experienced surfer, circle Thursday the 10th of September. That’s your day. The rest of the run is a waiting game for the wind to play ball.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Fri night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sat morning, calm by Mon night).

Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
SW
16
1.8
SW
16
2
SW
15
2.5
SW
14
3
SW
14
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.1
SW
16
2.5
WSW
15
3
SW
11
3
SW
12
2
SW
14
1.7
SW
13
1.3
SW
12
0.9
SW
13
0.7
SW
13
1.3
SW
13
1.1
SW
18
1.6
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
991
1474
1638
2519
3278
3710
3311
3077
2231
2925
2551
2344
1550
1014
481
269
163
511
804
1537
1185
Wind (km/h)
25
WNW
30
W
35
NW
40
W
35
WSW
30
WNW
25
NNW
20
NNW
45
NNW
55
WNW
50
W
30
W
25
W
10
W
25
WNW
25
SSW
15
SW
10
NNW
20
NW
30
SW
40
SW
Wind State
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
3:06PM2.32m
3:49AM2.38m
3:41PM2.34m
4:32AM2.40m
4:18PM2.34m
5:17AM2.38m
4:57PM2.32m
6:05AM2.31m
5:41PM2.26m
6:59AM2.21m
6:33PM2.18m
8:00AM2.12m
7:35PM2.08m
Low Tide
9:26PM0.18m
9:47AM0.59m
10:04PM0.09m
10:27AM0.65m
10:45PM0.05m
11:09AM0.73m
11:30PM0.06m
11:54AM0.83m
00:19AM0.12m
12:46PM0.92m
1:16AM0.23m
1:48PM0.99m
2:20AM0.35m
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:37
6:35
6:33
6:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:57
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
 mm
2
10
1
1
1
1
1
Temp °C
13
13
13
12
13
12
14
15
15
13
14
12
13
14
13
12
11
10
13
12
12
Feels °C
7
6
4
3
5
5
8
10
7
1
4
3
9
11
8
6
7
8
8
3
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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