
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 4,430 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, grab your board. Rusty here, and I've been staring at the charts for this stretch. Look, it's a bit of a slow burn, but patience will pay off. We’re in for a solid run of southerly groundswell, but it’s gonna come with some wind drama early on. Let's break it down.
First up, we're looking at Flynns Reef. For this whole first week, the wind is just a pain. For Sunday the 13th, it's pumping a cross-shore at 19 mph, which is chopping things up even with a long period 4ft SW swell (611 energy). It’s messy. Monday isn't much better, with cross-onshore winds dropping the swell size. Tuesday the 15th sees a jump in size – 7ft in the morning and 8ft by the afternoon – but it's getting blasted by 28 mph cross-onshore winds. That's not surf, that's a washing machine. Wednesday the 16th brings a serious push of energy – 6882 (strong) with a 10ft SW swell at 15 seconds – but it's still lumpy with cross-shore wind. The quality is just marginal. We basically don't have a decent option until the end of the week.
Now, keep your eyes peeled for Monday the 21st. The morning is a complete game-changer. The wind drops to dead glassy, calm, with a 6ft SW groundswell (1185 energy). That’s going to be clean. But the real standout, the one you wait for, is Tuesday the 22nd. Flynns Reef is going to be absolutely cooking. An 8ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, pushing through with a light cross-offshore breeze. That’s a clean, heavy, powerful reef break. This is for experienced surfers only – 8ft on a reef with that energy (3589) is not a beginner wave. The morning session is your best bet; the afternoon wind picks up a notch but it's still clean.
After that big push, Wednesday the 23rd holds onto a quality 5ft SW swell at 15-16 seconds, with clean cross-offshore winds all day. It’s very good. Thursday the 24th is a bit tricky. The swell is bigger again at 8ft with a massive 19-second period (4186 energy). The wind is light offshore in the morning, but it's a bit of a straight-shooter period for that wave height, which might make it a bit closed-out at times. The afternoon session, with a cross-offshore breeze, is cleaner and better shaped.
The forecast confidence is high for that Tuesday to Thursday window. It’s the clear winner. After that, the swell backs off into the final weekend, with smaller waves and onshore winds returning. Nothing to write home about.
Stay patient, let the early week winds blow through, and be on the reef Tuesday morning. It’ll be worth the wait.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Warm (max 21°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri afternoon, min 7°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
606 | 595 | 360 | 224 | 176 | 80 | 1374 | 2412 | 2982 | 4430 | 3797 | 1994 | 1212 | 787 | 465 | 630 | 1383 | 1076 | 706 | 545 | 369 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 1:04PM2.24m | 1:37AM2.28m | 1:46PM2.28m | 2:25AM2.36m | 2:26PM2.30m | 3:08AM2.39m | 3:03PM2.30m | 3:48AM2.37m | 3:38PM2.27m | 4:26AM2.32m | 4:12PM2.21m | 5:03AM2.24m | 4:45PM2.14m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:20PM0.40m | 7:43AM0.54m | 8:04PM0.27m | 8:28AM0.56m | 8:45PM0.19m | 9:09AM0.59m | 9:23PM0.17m | 9:46AM0.64m | 9:59PM0.19m | 10:22AM0.71m | 10:35PM0.25m | 10:57AM0.79m | 11:11PM0.34m | ||||||||
6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | |
— | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 21 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 18 |
Feels °C | 15 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 16 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
606 | 595 | 360 | 224 | 176 | 80 | 217 | — | — | 4430 | 3797 | 1994 | 1212 | 787 | 465 | 630 | 1383 | 1076 | 706 | 545 | 369 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 5 | SW 18 | SSW 17 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 18 |
— | — | — | 15 | 15 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 32 | 388 | 170 | — | — | 15 | 50 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 2 | WNW 3 | SW 4 | WSW 6 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | — | — | WSW 5 | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 |
4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 64 | 1374 | 2412 | 2982 | 2648 | 2551 | 121 | — | — | 75 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 4 | 18 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 12 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 84 | 73 | 657 | 264 | 314 | 126 | 2 | 2 | 84 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 69 | 69 | 2 | 61 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










