
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 4 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 13s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 7,616 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Tue 4th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days are a test of patience for anyone wanting to paddle out at Flynns Reef. This is a top-shelf, advanced-level reef break, but we’ve got a whole lot of wind and not nearly enough clean windows. The first proper surf worth talking about doesn’t show up until Monday, August 3rd, so that’s a solid gap of nearly a week from the start of the forecast of nothing but blown-out, choppy mess.
The long-range outlook does offer a couple of glimmers, but they’re a way off and not set in stone. The real standout of the whole period is set for Tuesday, August 4th. We’ve got a clean 4ft SW swell, period 12 seconds, with gentle offshore wind from the east. The water’s sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year – no surprises there. The wave energy is moderate (374). That’s a session where the reef will be working, and you’ll get some proper lines. The winds are offshore, so it’ll be clean. Just be aware this spot is fairly exposed, and crowds are often here, so get in early.
The next little window is Wednesday, August 5th. Morning sees a 3ft SW swell, period 14 seconds, with light cross-offshore wind. The energy is still moderate (513). It’s a bit smaller, but it’s clean. By the afternoon, it goes glassy – dead calm – and the swell hangs in at 3ft with a long 14-second period. That’s a rare treat for a reef break, as the long period will have the waves wrapping in nicely. The energy is still moderate (562). Expect crowds then too.
Now, as we push into the second week, there’s a promising but more uncertain highlight on Tuesday, August 11th. The afternoon shows a 4ft SW swell, period 13 seconds, with light cross-offshore wind and clean conditions. The energy is moderate (452). That’s a solid chance if the forecast holds.
A word of caution: on Wednesday, August 12th, we see a jump in size – 8ft to 10ft SW swells from the afternoon, with periods around 13-14 seconds. The energy is strong (2449 to 4053). But the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy. That size is for experts only, and the lumpy conditions will make it a real battle. Might be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfing on that day.
For the rest of the days, it’s either too windy, too small, or the conditions are just poor. The period from July 28th through to August 2nd is a write-off – near gale-force winds, rain, and messy, blown-out surf. Don’t bother. After the 5th, we get a few days of small, choppy or cross-shore junk until the 11th.
So, if you’re keen, mark your calendar for Tuesday, August 4th – that’s the pick of the bunch. The Wednesday the 5th is a close second for the glassy afternoon session. The rest is a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (gales from the WSW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
411 | 871 | 1972 | 6285 | 5205 | 2570 | 1162 | 878 | 537 | 416 | 303 | 240 | 249 | 1420 | 2089 | 1165 | 1200 | 847 | 1344 | 1581 | 757 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 10:50AM1.93m | 9:54PM1.78m | 11:49AM1.99m | 11:02PM1.78m | 12:40PM2.07m | 00:06AM1.81m | 1:23PM2.15m | 1:03AM1.87m | 2:01PM2.23m | 1:54AM1.94m | 2:35PM2.28m | 2:41AM2.02m | 3:07PM2.31m | 3:24AM2.10m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:35PM1.22m | 4:45AM0.55m | 5:43PM1.17m | 5:42AM0.52m | 6:42PM1.07m | 6:34AM0.50m | 7:30PM0.94m | 7:21AM0.48m | 8:11PM0.80m | 8:05AM0.47m | 8:48PM0.66m | 8:45AM0.49m | 9:23PM0.53m | ||||||||
7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | |
— | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | |
mm | — | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 3 | -3 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
411 | 871 | 1972 | — | — | — | 1162 | 816 | 537 | 416 | 303 | 240 | 217 | 1420 | 2089 | 1165 | 1200 | 847 | 1344 | 1581 | 757 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 23 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 18 | S 18 | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — |
27 | 640 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 18 | 62 | 97 | 249 | 62 | 160 | — | — | 255 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | S 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 5 | NW 4 | NW 5 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 4 | SW 5 | SSW 7 | — | ESE 4 |
71 | 45 | 47 | 6285 | 5205 | 2570 | — | 878 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 31 | 28 | 51 | 153 | — | 35 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 265 | 491 | 382 | 484 | 306 | 84 | 73 | 73 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 49 | 73 | 454 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










