Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe.

We’ve got a tricky run ahead at Flynns Reef, with a lot of wind and messy conditions to work through before we see anything clean. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year. The first good news doesn’t show up until Saturday the 12th of September, and even then, we’re only looking at a short window of quality.

Right now and through the rest of this week, it’s pretty grim. The next few days are plagued by strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy surf. On Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th, you’re looking at 5 ft to 6 ft of SW swell, but with winds howling from the SSW at 22 mph to 19 mph, it’s all cross-chop and poor conditions. The energy is moderate to strong (1191 to 446), but the period is all over the place, with that Monday afternoon showing a short, weak 7-second period that won’t do anything good. Forget it.

Tuesday the 8th teases us a bit – morning has 3 ft of SW swell but a very long 18-second period and a light offshore from the WNW. The energy is strong (1136), and that long period groundswell could be clean at a reef, but the height is marginal. Tuesday afternoon bumps up to 5 ft but the wind goes cross-on again. It’s a maybe, not a go.

Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are pure chaos – we’re looking at 10 ft to 12 ft of SW swell with strong winds hitting 25 mph to 31 mph. The energy is through the roof (up to 9573), but this is only for experts, and with that much cross-onshore wind, it’s blown-out and dangerous. Not worth paddling out unless you’re on a jet ski.

Friday the 11th is still poor, with 6 ft to 5 ft of SW swell and moderate to gentle cross-onshore winds keeping it choppy.

The Standout – Saturday the 12th of September: This is the clear winner. Morning brings 5 ft of SW swell with a nice 16-second period and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNE at 6 mph. That’s clean. The energy is strong (1164), and it’s going to be lined up. Afternoon is even better – the swell drops slightly to 5 ft but the wind goes near glassy from the SE at just 3 mph, with a 15-second period. This is your window for the whole run. Get in the water. Expect some company though, as crowds are often a factor here.

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th fall apart again – strong NNW and W winds up to 31 mph bring messy, blown-out surf with shorter period swells. Not worth it.

Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th see 6 ft to 7 ft of SW swell, but the wind stays cross-on. The period improves (12 to 14 seconds) and the energy is solid (up to 1550), but the quality is marginal. A surfer could get waves, but it won’t be clean.

Thursday the 17th through Saturday the 19th of September is another rough patch – strong winds from the NNW and WNW, with swell building to 10 ft and energy hitting 4652. The cross-chop is messy and blown-out. This is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Final promising window – Monday the 21st of September: The morning is still marginal with 7 ft of SW swell and a cross-on breeze. But the afternoon? That’s the second standout. The swell stays at 7 ft with a 14-second period, and the wind swings light cross-offshore from the ESE at 6 mph. The energy is strong (2193), and the conditions are rated excellent for experienced surfers. This one’s a keeper, but it’s a long way off – keep an eye on it.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a write-off. The best surf on offer is Saturday the 12th of September, with clean conditions and solid groundswell. Monday the 21st of September afternoon is the other one to circle. Everything else is either too windy, too big, or too messy. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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