Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 18s period, SW swell with 1,761 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 1.7m 18s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Fri 28th Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking straight at the charts for our local patch. Things are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a real gem hiding in there if you’re patient.
The first session worth paddling out for is on Sunday the 23rd of August. Let’s not get too excited about the morning though – it’s a mess with 6ft of SW swell coming in under a cross-on breeze from the NNW at 9 mph. The wave energy is cranked up to a hefty 1674, but it’s choppy and not doing the reef any favors. It’s a “marginal” call.
But hold on… Sunday afternoon is where it’s at. The wind drops to dead calm, glassy. Clean as a whistle. You’ve got a solid 6ft of SW groundswell rolling in with a 15-second period. That’s proper long-period energy, which on a reef like Flynns Reef is gonna set up like a dream. The combined energy is still pumping at 1509. This is the standout of the entire forecast. For experienced surfers only, and it’s gonna be a treat. The water is sitting at 56°, which is about what you’d expect for late August, no crazy anomaly.
Monday the 24th is a write-off. The wind is howling out of the NNW at 19 mph, making a mess of the 4ft swell. The energy drops to 585, and it’s just lumpy and cross-chop. Not worth it.
Tuesday the 25th shows some promise in the afternoon. The wind goes glassy again out of the WSW at 3 mph, with 4ft of SW swell. The energy is moderate at 687. It’s small, but clean, and a good option for a mellow session.
The rest of the week into the first days of September is a real struggle. The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, and the swell is either too small or too messy. There’s a big pulse of energy on Friday the 28th, with a 6ft SW swell and a 18-second period, showing a massive 3176 energy reading, but the 16 mph cross-on wind from the NW is just ruining it. It’s blown out and messy.
The second week drags on with similar conditions: lots of wind, lumpy surf, and marginal scores. There’s a glimmer on Sunday the 6th of September in the afternoon. The wind goes glassy again from the SSE, with a clean 5ft of SW swell. The energy is a solid 1093. It’s a long way out, but if that glass-off holds, it could be a great little surprise. Don’t get your hopes up for the Monday after though, a near-gale is forecast to blow the whole thing to pieces.
So, to wrap it up: if you want the best of the best, you’re looking at Sunday afternoon, August 23rd, at Flynns Reef. It’s the cleanest, most powerful window we’ve got. The rest is a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1107 | 1456 | 1041 | 581 | 434 | 369 | 480 | 473 | 746 | 513 | 837 | 480 | 263 | 99 | 537 | 1761 | 1643 | 1082 | 746 | 955 | 325 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 6:31PM1.99m | 7:57AM1.91m | 7:14PM1.89m | 8:58AM1.86m | 8:09PM1.80m | 10:05AM1.86m | 9:19PM1.75m | 11:09AM1.92m | 10:38PM1.75m | 12:02PM2.00m | 11:49PM1.82m | 12:46PM2.08m | 00:48AM1.94m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:47PM1.03m | 1:13AM0.50m | 1:35PM1.13m | 2:04AM0.57m | 2:37PM1.20m | 3:03AM0.63m | 3:54PM1.21m | 4:09AM0.65m | 5:09PM1.14m | 5:13AM0.64m | 6:09PM1.00m | 6:10AM0.61m | 6:56PM0.84m | ||||||||
6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | |
— | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 7 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 10 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 |
1107 | 1456 | 1041 | 581 | 434 | 369 | 480 | 473 | 746 | 513 | 837 | 480 | 263 | 96 | 437 | 1761 | 1643 | 1082 | 746 | 955 | 325 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SSW 16 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | SW 6 |
505 | 53 | — | — | 15 | 51 | 51 | 214 | — | — | — | 41 | 74 | 99 | 537 | 1415 | — | — | — | — | 43 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 23 | SW 22 | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 |
62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66 | 21 | 73 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | 98 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | — | ENE 3 | — | SW 3 | SW 6 | SW 13 | — | NW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | — |
— | — | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | 4 | — | 3 | 72 | 694 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 716 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 4 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











