Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window, but I’ll be honest with you – it’s a tough stretch for Flynns Reef. This spot is a consistent, advanced-level reef break that’s fairly exposed to the SW, and the optimum swell direction is SW, so the swell direction is right. The problem is the wind. For the first several days, it’s all over the shop, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment is almost always "poor surf conditions." The water temp is sitting at 56°F with a 1°F anomaly, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, so no shocks there.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t pop up until Monday, August 31st, in the afternoon. We’ve got a 5ft SW swell with a 15-second period – that’s a groundswell, and it’s got some real push. The combined energy is 1261 (moderate wave energy), but the wind is a light cross-onshore, so it’s not going to be clean. The score is a 2 out of 10, and it’s called "marginal." It’s a maybe, but not a standout.

The next glimmer of hope is Wednesday, September 9th, in the afternoon. The swell is a solid 10ft from the SW with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is a massive 7560 (strong to very strong). The wind is light and onshore (10 km/h), and the break is a reef, so that long period energy will shape up nicely. The score is a 4 out of 10, but it’s the best of the whole run. This is for experts only – 10ft is way too big for beginners. It’s a promising call, but it’s almost two weeks out, so keep an eye on it.

Thursday, September 10th, in the afternoon is another one to watch. The swell is 7ft from the SW with a 16-second period, energy at 2496 (strong). The wind is light and onshore again (10 km/h), making for clean conditions. It’s a 2 out of 10, but the conditions are right for a good session at a reef break.

The rest of the period is a write-off. There are huge gaps of nothing but poor surf and strong winds, especially from September 12th onwards, where it’s all cross-shore and messy. On Saturday, September 5th, the wind is a near gale at 34 mph, and the swell is 12ft – that’s blown out and dangerous. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, the standout is Wednesday, September 9th afternoon. It’s a long way off, but the combination of a big, long-period SW groundswell and light onshore wind on a reef break is the best we’ve got. If you’re an expert, mark it in your calendar. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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