Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,761 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a rough start, but there are a couple of windows that’ll get you smiling if you’re patient.
We’re looking at a period that starts off pretty average, with a whole lot of onshore and cross-onshore wind messing things up. There’s a real stretch of days where the surf is going to be poor, especially from Wednesday the 19th right through to Sunday the 23rd. It’s not that there’s no swell, it’s just that the wind is going to have it all chopped up and lumpy. That Saturday the 22nd looks particularly trying, with a solid push of swell – we’re talking up to 10ft – but it’s coming with moderate cross-onshore winds, making it a messy, powerful beast. That’s one for the experts only if they’re desperate, and honestly, the conditions will be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.
The first real sign of life comes on the morning of Sunday the 23rd. It’s still a bit rough, but the swell is a clean 5.6ft from the SW with a solid 14-second period. Then the next day, Monday the 24th, is a bit of a step back again. So, not much to write home about in the first week.
Now, hold on, because the start of the second week is where it gets interesting. The standout window is the morning of Monday the 31st of August. We finally get some glassy conditions with a light SSE wind, almost no breeze at all. The swell is a clean 3.9ft from the SW with a long 16-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and Flynns Reef (Big Island) will be handling it beautifully. It’s a reef break, so that long period is perfect – you’ll get those long, clean lines wrapping in. The energy is moderate, coming in at 855, but with that glassy surface, it’ll be worth it. This is the best call for a clean, quality surf.
Following right behind that, the morning of Wednesday the 2nd of September looks promising too. We’ve got a 4.3ft SW swell with a 17-second period, again with offshore ENE winds. Another very clean option, though a bit later in the forecast, so treat it as promising but less certain. The energy is moderate at 1045, and onshore it’ll be clean and lined up.
So, the long and short of it is: the first week is mostly a write-off for a good surf. Get your chores done. But keep your eyes on that Monday the 31st and Wednesday the 2nd. Those are your windows.
Right, that’s the long-range forecast for Flynns Reef. The water temp is sitting around 55.6°, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s not a shock to the system. Stay patient and pick your moments.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the ESE on Tue afternoon, strong winds from the N by Wed morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
535 | 398 | 339 | 206 | 147 | 171 | 257 | 342 | 555 | 448 | 404 | 1728 | 2421 | 4761 | 2038 | 1139 | 1139 | 1068 | 659 | 506 | 290 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:35PM2.41m | 4:16AM2.31m | 4:11PM2.36m | 4:59AM2.26m | 4:46PM2.28m | 5:39AM2.18m | 5:20PM2.19m | 6:21AM2.09m | 5:54PM2.09m | 7:05AM1.99m | 6:31PM1.99m | 7:57AM1.91m | 7:14PM1.89m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:58PM0.19m | 10:12AM0.59m | 10:36PM0.20m | 10:51AM0.70m | 11:14PM0.25m | 11:28AM0.81m | 11:51PM0.32m | 12:06PM0.92m | 00:30AM0.41m | 12:47PM1.03m | 1:13AM0.50m | 1:35PM1.13m | 2:04AM0.57m | ||||||||
7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | |
— | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
535 | 398 | 339 | 206 | 147 | 171 | 257 | 342 | 555 | 448 | 303 | 1728 | 2421 | 2829 | 2038 | 1139 | 1139 | 1068 | 659 | 506 | 290 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | SW 21 | WSW 5 | SW 17 | SW 18 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | SSW 16 | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 |
125 | — | 193 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 104 | 111 | 390 | 404 | — | 105 | — | 15 | 375 | — | — | 18 | 15 | 50 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | — | ESE 4 | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
161 | — | 6 | — | — | 39 | 114 | — | — | 98 | 215 | — | — | — | — | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 6 | E 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | — | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 |
— | 8 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 8 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 692 | 4761 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 7 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 76 | 10 | 22 | 69 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 69 | 10 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











