Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The outlook for this region is a real mixed bag – there’s a solid window of clean, fun surf early on, but then we get into a long stretch of lumpy, wind-affected days before a potentially epic finale at the very end of the forecast period.

The star of the show here is Flynns Reef. This is an advanced reef break that’s fairly exposed to the dominant SW swell, and it’s the only spot we’ve got to work with. The water temp is sitting around 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing to worry about on that front.

The best session of the whole period is looking like Friday afternoon, July 17th. The swell is a clean 5 ft from the SW with a very long 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, and with a period that long, it’s going to be a real treat on a reef setup like this. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and that’s the kind of moment you live for. The combined energy is strong at 1330, and the conditions are described as “glassy.” This is the standout. The early morning that same day is a bit cross-shore, but by the afternoon, it’s on.

Saturday, July 18th, is also worth a mention. The swell drops a touch to 4-5 ft, but the wind goes glassy again on Saturday afternoon with a 0 mph breeze. The period drops to 14 seconds, still good, but the energy is moderate (656). Still a fun, clean day for someone who knows the reef.

Thursday, July 16th is the first day with surf, but it’s a bit meh. You’ve got a 6 ft SW swell with a nice 15-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore, which will put a bit of chop on the surface. The energy is strong (1460), but the quality is marginal. It’s a pass for me.

Now, the bad news. From Sunday, July 19th, things start to fall apart. The swell drops below 3 ft, and the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore for a solid stretch. From Monday, July 20th all the way through to Thursday, July 30th, it’s a long run of poor conditions. The wind is consistently cross-onshore, often moderate to fresh, and the swell is all over the place. The energy stays low to moderate during this period, and the surf quality is rated as poor. This is about a 10-day gap where the reef just isn’t offering anything worth paddling out for. It’s a frustrating blank run.

Friday, July 31st, though, is a serious looker. The morning brings a 10 ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-offshore. The energy is massive – 4247 – that’s strong to very strong. Now, this is a big wave. At 10 ft, it’s expert territory only. But for the right crew, a clean, long-period SW groundswell on a reef with a cross-off breeze is about as good as it gets. The afternoon goes a bit cross-onshore, so the window is the morning. This is a promising but less certain call since it’s two weeks out, but it’s the only other highlight.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Friday afternoon, July 17th for the glassy, clean conditions. The second highlight is the morning of Friday, July 31st, but that’s a big, powerful swell for experts only. The middle of the period is a washout.

Rusty.

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