Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 10 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.7° C
0.4° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,374 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 10 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 7s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Fri 10th Jul)4ft (1.2m) 15s
Best Surf 1PM (Thu 16th Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 14s
Most Powerful10AM (Tue 14th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, this is Rusty here, and we’re looking at a tricky 16-day stretch for Flynns Reef. This spot is an advanced reef break that's consistent and fairly exposed to the SW, so when it lines up, it’s a proper wave. The water is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year – nothing to complain about there.

We kick things off on Friday, the 10th of July. It’s not a classic start, but there’s some hope. Friday morning we’ve got a clean 4ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period, and the energy is moderate at 724. The wind is a light cross-shore from the north at 9 mph, so there’s a slight bump, but it’s rideable. The afternoon cleans right up – wind drops to 3 mph and goes cross-offshore. The swell drops just a touch to 4ft, but with that long-period groundswell and glassy conditions, it goes from marginal to clean. That Friday afternoon is the only real standout in this outlook – a proper session if you can get out.

Now, brace yourselves. From Saturday the 11th all the way through to Thursday the 16th, the window slams shut. We get hammered by strong winds – Friday through Monday sees fresh to strong breezes, and by Sunday the 12th, we’ve got a near gale blowing. Swell sizes jump up to 10ft or more during that period, but the wind is cross-on or onshore, making it a complete mess. That Sunday brings a big 10ft SW swell with energy readings in the thousands (2327 to 2549), but it’s blown-out and unrideable. Monday and Tuesday are the same story – big energy (up to 9046) but with onshore winds and rain. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are still marginal. The swell drops back to 4ft to 7ft, but the wind stays cross-on, so it’s choppy. Nothing to get excited about.

Then on Thursday the 16th of July, in the afternoon, we get a little gift. The wind goes glassy – dead calm from the south at 3 mph – and the swell is a clean 4ft from the SW with that lovely 14-second period. The energy is moderate (649), and conditions are clean. It’s not a huge swell, but for a shallow reef break like this, a 4ft groundswell with glassy wind is proper.

After that, the rest of the forecast through to the 25th is mostly poor. Winds pick up again, staying cross or cross-on, and the swell fades to tiny 2ft to 4ft with weak energy. The 20th of July has a 3ft swell but with a 17-second period, which is very long period, and strong cross-shore winds – not ideal. There’s nothing else worth chasing.

So here’s the bottom line: Friday the 10th afternoon is the best on offer – clean, glassy, with a long-period SW groundswell at 4ft. That’s your window. Thursday the 16th afternoon is a close second with glassy conditions and a clean 4ft. After that, we’re looking at a long stretch of poor or marginal surf that runs right through the second week. It’s a tough run, but forecasts can change.

Stay patient, and don’t sleep on that Friday afternoon session.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Fri afternoon, near gales from the NW by Sun morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Mon night, light winds from the WNW by Wed afternoon).

Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
1
2
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SW
15
1.2
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
0.8
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
3
WSW
12
3
SW
12
2.5
SW
13
2.5
SW
14
2.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
15
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.5
WSW
14
1.9
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
724
657
472
297
245
380
2327
2549
2108
2527
3022
4553
5374
4612
2704
2655
1459
1048
726
581
565
Wind (km/h)
15
N
5
NNE
20
N
35
N
45
N
45
NW
50
NW
35
WNW
45
NW
45
NW
45
NW
40
W
35
W
40
WSW
25
WSW
15
WNW
10
NW
10
NW
10
NNW
5
S
10
NE
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
6:28PM2.20m
7:46AM2.16m
7:15PM2.16m
8:51AM2.19m
8:11PM2.13m
9:59AM2.23m
9:16PM2.10m
11:07AM2.28m
10:27PM2.11m
12:10PM2.35m
11:40PM2.14m
1:06PM2.42m
00:49AM2.19m
Low Tide
12:34PM0.85m
1:07AM0.22m
1:31PM0.96m
2:01AM0.16m
2:34PM1.04m
3:02AM0.11m
3:44PM1.08m
4:07AM0.08m
4:56PM1.04m
5:14AM0.06m
6:05PM0.94m
6:18AM0.05m
7:07PM0.79m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:13
5:14
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
 mm
4
7
2
1
2
4
2
2
Temp °C
11
13
11
13
13
9
12
13
13
14
14
13
12
12
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
Feels °C
8
11
7
5
4
0
2
5
4
5
5
3
4
3
6
8
10
10
10
12
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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