Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks.

Overall, it's a frustrating run for this spot. We've got a solid, long-period SW groundswell arriving immediately, but it's going to be blown out by strong winds for the first few days. The standouts are scarce, but there are a couple of windows where the stars align. The first real opportunity comes in the back half of the first week, and the best chance of a proper session looks to be deep into the second week.

The first wave of energy hits on Monday 13th July. We're talking a powerful 10ft SW swell with a very long period of 15 seconds, and the combined energy is massive (3514). That's a serious groundswell. But the 28 mph NW wind is tearing it apart, making it a strong cross-onshore mess. This is for experts only, and even then, it's a write-off. This continues through Tuesday and into Wednesday, with the swell dropping but still too big and messy to be fun. The water temp is about average for the time of year here.

By Thursday 16th July, the swell is down to a still-chunky 6ft from the SW with a long 15-second period, and the wind eases. It's still a bit cross-onshore, leaving it marginal. The energy is still decent (1262), so it's worth a look for the experienced crew if you're desperate.

The first real highlight of the forecast is Friday 17th July. That afternoon, the wind goes glassy with a light SE breeze, and we've got a clean 5ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is still substantial (1297). This will be the best conditions of the first week. The crowd factor is listed as "often", so expect a few locals out, but for a Friday arvo, it should be worth it. That long period will make it a bit straight at a beach break, but on a reef it should produce some proper lines.

The swell drops right off over the weekend, with a 4ft to 3ft range and poor winds, so the next week is a write-off until the following Tuesday.

Your best bet, the true standout of the entire 16-day window, looks to be Monday 27th July. The morning session shows a solid 7ft swell from the WSW, with a 10-second period, and clean conditions with an ESE breeze. The combined energy (867) is moderate but the quality is there. This is a bigger swell, so it's more for the experienced surfer, but the wind is clean and the conditions are rated as "very good". The afternoon sees the wind swing hard onshore, so it's a morning-only mission. The crowd factor is "often", so get there early.

Following that, Tuesday 28th July still has a 5ft SW swell, but the wind is back onshore, ending the run.

So, to sum it up: this Friday arvo (17th July) is the best of the near-term, but the real standout, the one to circle on the calendar, is that Monday morning (27th July). The rest of the time, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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