Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 7 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 8,074 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right then, Rusty here again. Let’s break down what’s happening at Flynns Reef.
The big picture is a lot of wind and messy water for the best part of the next two and a half weeks. There’s a serious dry spell with no decent surf from now until the end of the first week.
The one day to circle is Saturday afternoon, 12th September. This is the clear standout. We’ve got a 1.5m swell from the Southwest, 15-second period – classic groundswell. The wind is forecast to be absolutely flat calm, glassy, zero. That’ll make the reef at Flynns Reef look like a mirror. The combined wave energy is a moderate 988, enough to push you around but not scary. That’s your session.
Before that, it’s a lot of rubbish. Monday 7th has a 1.8m SW but a cross-shore wind at 18 mph (30 km/h) making a lumpy mess (energy 516). Tuesday morning 8th is a weird clean-looking 0.9m swell with a 18-second period (1074 energy) but marked as poor – don’t trust it. Tuesday afternoon 8th is a marginal 1.6m with a cross-onshore breeze. Wednesday 9th and Thursday 10th get smashed by strong cross-onshore winds and swells over 3.0m, energy hitting 5790 and 6196 – way too big and blown out, expert-only and even then unpleasant.
After that Saturday 12th glass-off, the pattern goes back to bad. Sunday 13th is crossed out by fresh breeze. Monday 14th is onshore and messy. The second week looks just as rough. Tuesday 15th has 1.8m but fresh cross-onshore winds. Wednesday 16th similar. Thursday 17th brings another 3.0m SW swell (energy 6706) with a cross-shore wind – wild and lumpy. Friday 18th is small and marginal. Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th are small with poor conditions. Nothing worthwhile in the second half.
For beginners, the 1.5m on Saturday 12th is fine with glassy conditions. The bigger swells mid-month are blown-out messes – avoid. Water temp is about 56°F, which is just 2°F off normal, so nothing unusual.
In short: Saturday 12th afternoon is your only clean window at Flynns Reef. The rest of the 16 days is wind-affected and lumpy. It’s a long gap, but that one afternoon should be worth the wait.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, near gales from the SW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Sun morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 7 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 340 | 246 | 540 | 1420 | 2061 | 4123 | 5953 | 8074 | 3544 | 2756 | 1832 | 1108 | 1155 | 1611 | 1265 | 988 | 882 | 614 | 560 | 390 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross |
High Tide | 6:33PM2.18m | 8:00AM2.12m | 7:35PM2.08m | 9:08AM2.07m | 8:51PM2.00m | 10:18AM2.07m | 10:16PM1.99m | 11:22AM2.11m | 11:35PM2.06m | 12:16PM2.17m | 00:42AM2.17m | 1:04PM2.24m | 1:37AM2.28m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:16AM0.23m | 1:48PM0.99m | 2:20AM0.35m | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | 4:21PM0.91m | 4:47AM0.51m | 5:32PM0.76m | 5:55AM0.53m | 6:30PM0.57m | 6:53AM0.53m | 7:20PM0.40m | ||||||||
 |  | |  |  | | | | |  | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 26 | SW 20 | SSW 18 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 98 | 237 | 473 | 1420 | 26 | 1451 | 243 | 8074 | 3544 | 2756 | 1832 | 1108 | 1155 | 1611 | 1265 | 988 | 882 | 614 | 560 | 390 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SSW 17 | — | SSW 20 | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — |
| kJ | 69 | 187 | 540 | 59 | — | 216 | — | 469 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 29 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 22 | SW 20 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 9 | 246 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 7 | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 18 | — | — | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 |
| kJ | 340 | — | — | — | 2061 | 4123 | 5953 | 5627 | — | — | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 11 | 13 | 18 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 126 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 451 | 572 | 1484 | 474 | 126 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 61 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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