Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 6,743 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 10s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Flynns Reef. Gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window is a tough one. The swell is there, but the wind is a nightmare for most of it. There’s no standout session that I’d be rushing to get in the water for, so let’s just call it a period of watching and waiting.
The first week has a few small swell pulses, but the wind is a constant problem. We start with a bit of a tease on Sunday the 19th of July. The swell is a tiny 3 ft from the SW, with a 13-second period (285 combined energy). That’s a weak, clean-ish wave, but the wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’s rideable but nothing to write home about. The water’s sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year.
From Monday the 20th, the wind really kicks in. A fresh northwest breeze starts blowing cross-shore, and the swell bumps up to 3 ft, but it’s lumpy. By Tuesday the 21st, the swell gets a bit more juice at 4 ft, but the wind is again a moderate cross-shore, making it messy. The energy is moderate (654), but the quality is poor.
The real trouble starts on Wednesday the 22nd. The wind goes onshore, and the swell jumps to 6 ft with a strong breeze. Then Thursday the 23rd, we see a big 10 ft SW swell hit, but it’s being hammered by a near gale onshore wind. The energy is very strong (3140), but the conditions are a complete write-off for paddle surfing. Honestly, this setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than a surfboard.
Through the end of July and into early August, the pattern stays the same. We get a few more pulses of SW swell, hitting 8 ft and even 10 ft, but the wind is relentless – near gale, cross-onshore, rain, the works. The waves are blown out, lumpy, and messy. The energy is high (3838 on the 24th), but it’s unsurfable.
The first weekend of August (the 1st and 2nd) offers a bit of a shift. The swell drops right back to 1 ft to 2 ft, but the period jumps to a very long 20 seconds. That’s a classic groundswell, but it’s all but gone. The wind is still a near gale, so don’t get your hopes up.
The final day on the 3rd of August has a bit more size at 5 ft from the SW, with a very long 19-second period. The energy is strong (1473), but the wind is a strong cross-shore, making it messy. Still not a clean option.
So, bottom line: there’s no good surf on offer in this 16-day window. The swell is there, but the wind is just too strong and onshore for the whole period. For a reef that’s consistent and fairly exposed, this is a frustrating run. It tends not to stay this poor for long, so keep an eye on the forecasts – things can change. But for now, leave the boards at home.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (fresh winds from the NW on Wed morning, near gales from the WSW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 228 | 172 | 111 | 447 | 283 | 251 | 648 | 495 | 352 | 240 | 904 | 1172 | 3140 | 2521 | 2723 | 2372 | 3838 | 4413 | 1594 | 1818 | 2187 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 3:26PM2.51m | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | 7:02AM2.04m | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:43PM0.34m | 9:51AM0.38m | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | | | |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | -1 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | — | — | — | SSW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | SW 12 |
| kJ | 228 | 172 | 87 | 447 | 273 | 251 | 648 | 495 | 352 | 240 | — | — | — | 32 | 2723 | 2372 | — | 2526 | 1594 | — | 1358 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | S 10 | WSW 15 | SW 18 | — | — | — | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 17 | 60 | 111 | 2 | 283 | 13 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SW 11 | — | WSW 12 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 40 | 37 | 29 | — | 14 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | NW 4 | WNW 5 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | NW 4 | SW 12 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 12 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 904 | 1172 | 3140 | 2521 | 7 | 80 | 3838 | 4413 | 26 | 1818 | 2187 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 69 | 73 | 69 | 73 | 451 | 70 | 469 | 451 | 101 | 314 | 84 | 49 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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