
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 17s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 6,743 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the surf over the next couple of weeks at Flynns Reef.
First up, the water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there. The spot is a consistent reef break for advanced surfers and it’s fairly exposed to the swell, with an optimum direction from the southwest.
Right now, we’ve got a solid pulse of SW groundswell rolling in, but the wind is a mess. Tuesday the 14th looks ugly – a strong breeze and a near gale wrecking the lineup with 10ft of SW swell. The energy reading is huge at 3,876 to 4,511, but you’ll be fighting a blown-out mess. Not worth paddling out.
Wednesday the 15th is still on the poor side. Swell drops to 7ft, still SW, but with a moderate cross-onshore wind, it’s choppy and not inviting.
Thursday the 16th shows improvement – the wind slackens right off to next to nothing for the morning session. Swell is 6ft from the SW at 15 seconds, so it’s a proper groundswell. The energy is moderate (1,308). It’s still only marginal, but the glassy morning could give you a few clean ones if you pick your tides.
Friday the 17th is where it gets interesting. The morning is still a bit cross, but the afternoon goes glassy. Swell sits at 6ft, SW, and the period stretches to 17 seconds – that’s very long period energy. The combined swell energy pushes up to 1,996, which is solid moderate. That’s the best wave quality on offer for this whole period. Clean, lined-up groundswell on a reef. That Friday arvo session is a standout.
Saturday the 18th still has a glassy afternoon with 4ft SW swell, but it’s smaller and the energy drops to 541. A fun, smaller day but not the same juice as Friday.
From Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 24th, things go flat or get wrecked by fresh to strong breezes. Swell drops under 3ft, and despite occasional glassy pockets, the energy is low (200 to 400 range). There’s a stretch of about 5 days here where it’s really not worth it – poor surf quality and mostly onshore junk.
Thursday the 24th sees a jump back up to 6ft SW swell, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore and lumpy again. Energy is moderate (1,320), but it’s blown. Not the pick.
Then from the 25th to the 27th, we get cleaner conditions with cross-offshore winds (ESE/SE), but the swell is only around 3ft to 4ft, and the energy is low. It’s clean but small.
The last date to keep an eye on is Wednesday the 29th. The morning shows 5ft SW swell with a massive 19-second period – that’s an incredibly long groundswell. The energy is moderate to strong (1,417), and the wind is a light cross-shore. That’s a promising long-range call, but it’s over a week away so things could shift. If it holds, that’ll be one for the experienced crew, as long-period swells can wall up on a reef and offer some proper lines.
Bottom line: Friday the 17th afternoon is the clear standout right now – glassy, solid groundswell, great energy. Wednesday the 29th is one to watch if you’re planning ahead.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon night, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Thu morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Mon 20 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
9006 | 3876 | 4511 | 2754 | 1594 | 1550 | 1238 | 1308 | 1246 | 1123 | 1281 | 1816 | 1265 | 813 | 541 | 325 | 221 | 144 | 194 | 361 | 227 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross | glassy | cross | cross | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 11:07AM2.28m | 10:27PM2.11m | 12:10PM2.35m | 11:40PM2.14m | 1:06PM2.42m | 00:49AM2.19m | 1:57PM2.48m | 1:54AM2.24m | 2:43PM2.51m | 2:53AM2.27m | 3:26PM2.51m | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:07AM0.08m | 4:56PM1.04m | 5:14AM0.06m | 6:05PM0.94m | 6:18AM0.05m | 7:07PM0.79m | 7:18AM0.08m | 8:04PM0.62m | 8:13AM0.14m | 8:55PM0.46m | 9:04AM0.25m | 9:43PM0.34m | 9:51AM0.38m | ||||||||
— | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | |
— | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | |
mm | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
Feels °C | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
5123 | — | — | 2754 | 1594 | 1550 | 1238 | 1308 | 1246 | 1123 | 1281 | 1816 | 1265 | 813 | 541 | 325 | 221 | 144 | 110 | 361 | 227 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 12 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 331 | 180 | — | — | — | — | 17 | 60 | 194 | 10 | 35 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 21 | — | — | — | — | W 23 | WSW 20 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | — | S 10 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 141 | — | — | — | — | 10 | 41 | 97 | 24 | — | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 |
9006 | 3876 | 4511 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 69 | 101 | 469 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











