Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 8 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 5,515 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 6 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Sep 07) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Tue 8th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's cooking for Flynns Reef.
Right off the bat, this is a frustrating outlook. We’ve got a solid reef break with a consistent, powerful SW groundswell running all the way through the 16-day window, but the wind gods are just not playing ball. For the first week and a half, almost every session is ruined by strong, onshore or cross-onshore winds. The water temperature here is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year.
The biggest kick in the teeth is the first three days. Starting Tuesday the 1st, there's a clean 4ft to 5ft SW swell with that beautiful 16-second period, but it's being torn apart by 25 mph NW winds. It's just not worth paddling out for. This frustrating pattern holds through to Thursday the 5th, with the swell building to a chunky 8ft - 10ft and wind whipping over 28 mph. The energy levels get massive, but it’s all just white water and washing machines. The setup is far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during that stretch.
After a week of this, there is finally a crack in the weather. The standout window arrives on Sunday the 6th for the afternoon session. The wind swings around to a light SSE breeze, clocking in as a clean cross-off. The swell settles to a still-solid 6ft from the SW. That combination of a long-period groundswell and glassy winds on a reef will create some truly excellent, lined-up waves for experienced surfers. It’s a narrow window, but that’s the one to circle.
From there, the following week looks very average again. The swell bounces between 3ft and 8ft, but the wind keeps fouling it up. There is a glimmer of something good on Saturday the 13th, with a glassy 4ft SW groundswell in the morning. The waves should be clean and fun for those who know the reef. But the period is shorter at 14 seconds, so it won't have the same punch as the 6th.
Overall, wait for that Sunday afternoon slot or maybe the glassy morning on the 13th. The rest of it is a write-off.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Tue night, strong winds from the WSW by Thu morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the SSE by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 853 | 640 | 752 | 991 | 1592 | 1526 | 2483 | 3119 | 4832 | 3092 | 2829 | 2035 | 3487 | 3923 | 4832 | 1889 | 1255 | 618 | 300 | 235 | 246 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:33PM2.28m | 3:07AM2.31m | 3:06PM2.32m | 3:49AM2.38m | 3:41PM2.34m | 4:32AM2.40m | 4:18PM2.34m | 5:17AM2.38m | 4:57PM2.32m | 6:05AM2.31m | 5:41PM2.26m | 6:59AM2.21m | 6:33PM2.18m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:50PM0.31m | 9:07AM0.56m | 9:26PM0.18m | 9:47AM0.59m | 10:04PM0.09m | 10:27AM0.65m | 10:45PM0.05m | 11:09AM0.73m | 11:30PM0.06m | 11:54AM0.83m | 00:19AM0.12m | 12:46PM0.92m | 1:16AM0.23m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  | |  |  | |
 | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
mm | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 |
Temp °C | 18 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 853 | 640 | 85 | 991 | 1592 | 1526 | — | — | 2902 | 3092 | 2829 | 2035 | — | — | 2822 | 1889 | 1255 | 618 | 300 | 235 | 246 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | SE 4 | SW 21 |
| kJ | — | — | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 111 | — | — | 3 | 150 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | SW 21 | SSE 4 |
| kJ | — | — | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 17 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 15 | WSW 5 | — | NW 4 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | ESE 3 | ESE 4 | — |
| kJ | 13 | 20 | 752 | 37 | — | 15 | 2483 | 3119 | 4832 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 3487 | 3923 | 4832 | — | — | — | 3 | 16 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 103 | 73 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 69 | 457 | 73 | 69 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 525 | 451 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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