Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a single spot that’s been on the radar – Flynns Reef. This reef break is our only real option in the 16-day window, so let’s see what’s on offer.

The surf window kicks off on Sunday the 12th, but honestly, it’s a rough start. We’ve got a solid 8ft to 10ft southwest swell on the way, with a combined wave energy reading of 1837 to 4094 – that’s a lot of power in the water. But the wind is a mess. Cross-on from the northwest at 31 mph, blowing everything out. It’s a near-gale to strong breeze, so the conditions are gonna be ugly. This is not a paddle session; it’s more of a kite-surfing setup with that wind and lumpy, blown-out surf. The swell is big, over 8ft, so it’s expert territory anyway, but the wind kills it.

Things start to ease a little on Tuesday the 14th. The wind drops to a fresh breeze, around 19 mph, and it’s turning onshore, but the swell is still a solid 8ft to 10ft from the southwest. The energy is still high (3013 to 3817), but the conditions are still poor. Not worth getting wet.

Wednesday the 15th is a transition day. The swell drops to 6ft, but the wind is still cross-on and choppy. The energy is still moderate (1238 to 1505), but it’s marginal at best. You’d be scratching for a wave.

Now, Thursday the 16th is where it gets interesting. The swell drops to a nice 5ft to 5ft from the southwest (period 15 seconds), and the energy is moderate (899 to 1020). But the wind… Thursday afternoon turns glassy. Glassy. That’s a major positive. The water is a cool 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no need to worry about a wetsuit thickness change. This is the first real chance for a clean session, but the swell is still just a bit small for a standout.

The best stretch hits from Friday the 17th into the weekend. Friday morning has a light cross-shore, but Friday afternoon is glassy again with a 5ft southwest swell (16-second period). That’s a long-period groundswell, which is perfect for a reef like Flynns. The energy is 1265, so it’s got some push. That’s a solid session. Saturday the 18th fades a bit, with smaller 4ft to 4ft swell and a moderate cross-shore, so it’s marginal.

The real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th. On Saturday the 25th morning, we get a 5ft southwest swell, 17-second period (very long period groundswell), with a light cross-offshore breeze. The energy is 1496 (moderate) and conditions are described as “excellent for experienced surfers.” That’s the pick of the bunch. The 17-second period means long, muscly lines that will wrap around the reef perfectly. Crowds are "often" here, so expect company, but for waves like that? Worth it. Sunday the 26th afternoon is also glassy with a 5ft swell, so another good option.

The gap after the first week is notable. From the 18th to the 24th, it’s mostly small, weak, and blown out, with a few marginal windows. Things get a second wind on the 25th and 27th, but that’s a long wait for the best stuff.

Overall, the first few days are a write-off due to wind. The middle of the week holds some clean but small windows. The real standout is Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, with that beautiful long-period groundswell and clean wind. Flynns Reef is a consistent break, but it needs the right wind. We get that at the end of the forecast. The water is around 57°F, so average for the season.

Stay patient, don’t bother with the early stuff, and keep your eyes on that last weekend. It’s a long call, but it looks promising.

Rusty.

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