Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Flynns Reef are a real mixed bag, and mostly a frustrating one. The pattern is dominated by constant wind issues, with only a few narrow windows that actually look worth paddling out for. It’s a long stretch of waiting for the stars to align, and for a solid reef break like this, that’s a tough pill to swallow.

For the opening days, it’s pretty grim. From Sunday, July 26th right through to Thursday, July 30th, we’ve got a persistent run of moderate to strong cross-onshore winds, with some of it blowing near gale force. The swell is there, but it’s blown out and messy. Tuesday, July 28th morning sees a strong cross-shore with 4ft, 13-second SW groundswell (combined energy 558), but that 28 mph wind just tears it apart. Then Wednesday, July 29th morning gets a solid 10ft, 16-second SW groundswell (combined energy 5115), but it’s accompanied by a near gale cross-onshore and rain. That’s heavy-duty, dangerous stuff – only for the most experienced, and honestly, even they’d struggle to find a ride in those conditions.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Friday morning, July 31st. The wind swings to a light 3 mph from the west, turning glassy. That’s a major positive. We’ve got a 4ft, 12-second swell from the SW (combined energy 441), which is a moderate, clean groundswell. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is about normal for this time of year. For a reef break, that clean, glassy window is the one to target. The wind is perfect, but the swell is only moderate, so it’s not a day for massive bombs, but the shape should be there for a good session.

The rest of that weekend and into the next week, from August 1st to the 5th, is mostly marginal. The wind is messy again – cross-shore and cross-onshore – with spells of moderate breeze. The swell size hangs around 3ft to 4ft, and while the period is excellent (15-19 seconds), the wind keeps it from being clean. The best of that bunch is Sunday, August 2nd morning: 4ft, 16-second SW groundswell (combined energy 904), but with a moderate cross-shore, it’s a bit of a struggle.

Now, the standout – and I mean the *real* standout – is Thursday, August 6th. This is the one to circle. The morning brings a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNE at 6 mph, meaning clean, lined-up waves. The swell is a solid 7ft from the SW with a 14-second period (combined energy 1983). That’s a strong, well-formed groundswell hitting a reef. 7ft is big, this is for experienced surfers only, but the conditions are as close to perfect as this forecast gets. The shape should be excellent, with long, powerful walls. The wind makes it, and this is the best session on offer.

The following days from August 7th onward fall apart again. The wind picks up to a fresh to strong breeze, blowing cross-shore, and the quality drops off rapidly. August 10th Monday morning sees a 3ft, 17-second groundswell (combined energy 637) but with a strong cross-onshore, it’s just not worth it.

So, to wrap it up: there’s a long wait for the good stuff. The glassy Friday morning on July 31st is a nice, clean option for a quieter session, but the big one is Thursday, August 6th morning. That’s the day for experienced surfers to get out there before the wind turns. Keep an eye on that date.

Rusty.

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