Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 20 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.7° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 20 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 27 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 21s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 4,005 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 27 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 21s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 21s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Thu 27th Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 21s
Best Surf 7PM (Thu 27th Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 21s
Most Powerful 7PM (Sat 22nd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Alright, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Flynns Reef. Straight up, this is a tough run. The forecast has a long stretch of lumpy, choppy, messy conditions, and the scores are telling the story. We’re looking at a big gap of poor days, but there’s a glimmer of hope right at the very end of the window.

The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 1° warmer than the long-term average for this time of year. Nothing radical, just a touch on the warm side.

We kick off on Thursday the 20th of August, but there’s nothing to get excited about. The swell is a tiny 2 feet from the SW, but the wind is a cross-onshore WNW breeze. It’s choppy and weak, with combined energy at just 283 – that’s weak. Forget it.

Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd are a write-off. On Friday, the swell bumps up to 4 feet, but that’s paired with a 15-19 mph cross-onshore wind. Saturday gets a bit of size, 8 feet from the SW, but it’s blowing over 19 mph with a cross-onshore wind. The energy is there at 2725, but it’s a total mess. Not for paddling.

Sunday the 23rd is a bit of a tease. The swell is 6-6 feet from the SW with a long 16-second period, so there’s energy in the water (2052). The wind drops to a light breeze out of the NNW by the afternoon, but it’s still cross-onshore. It’s marginal, and the tide might be a factor. It’s not clean, just okay.

Monday the 24th through to the end of August is a grim run. The wind is up, the swell is inconsistent, and the conditions are predominantly poor. The energy fluctuates, but the wind is always ruining it. The morning of the 30th (Sunday) is the first real sign of life – a light SSE cross-offshore breeze with a tiny 2-foot swell. The energy is very low at 177, but it’s clean. Just a little one.

The standout, the one to keep an eye on, is Tuesday the 1st of September. This is the best on offer. The morning shows a 3-foot SW swell with a long 17-second period. The wind is light and variable, coming from the north as a cross-offshore breeze. The energy is a decent 776, and it’s described as “very good surf conditions.” This will be clean, glassy, and the long period will mean some nice lines. For a reef break like Flynns Reef, that long period is a real bonus. Just be aware that it’s a small swell, so it’s not a bomb. The afternoon is smaller but still clean.

After that, we get a bit of a size spike on the 2nd of September, with 10 feet from the WSW in the afternoon, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, making it lumpy. The energy is big at 2733, but it’s not clean. Then the 3rd gets messy again with strong winds.

And then, right at the end, on the 4th of September (Friday), we see a massive swell coming. 10-12 feet from the WSW, with very strong energy (5014 to 7820). But the wind is howling at 22-25 mph, making it a no-go for surfing. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle.

So, the long and short of it: the first week and a half is pretty much a total loss. The best chance for a clean wave is the morning of Tuesday the 1st of September. It’s a small, clean, long-period swell at Flynns Reef. It’s the only real standout in the whole 16-day window. The rest is blown out or too small.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the S by Tue afternoon).

Thu
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
13
0.6
SW
14
1.1
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.3
SW
17
2.4
SW
15
2.4
SW
15
2.3
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.8
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.3
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.2
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
2.3
SW
16
2.5
WSW
15
1.7
SW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.2
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
144
147
539
472
1014
2725
2449
2111
1091
1474
1155
650
565
473
780
2736
3151
1139
673
473
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
25
NW
25
WNW
30
NW
35
WNW
35
WNW
35
WSW
20
WNW
15
NW
5
NNW
25
NNW
30
NNW
35
NNW
25
NW
10
SSW
40
S
30
SSW
35
SSE
25
SSW
25
SW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
4:46PM2.28m
5:39AM2.18m
5:20PM2.19m
6:21AM2.09m
5:54PM2.09m
7:05AM1.99m
6:31PM1.99m
7:57AM1.91m
7:14PM1.89m
8:58AM1.86m
8:09PM1.80m
10:05AM1.86m
9:19PM1.75m
Low Tide
11:14PM0.25m
11:28AM0.81m
11:51PM0.32m
12:06PM0.92m
00:30AM0.41m
12:47PM1.03m
1:13AM0.50m
1:35PM1.13m
2:04AM0.57m
2:37PM1.20m
3:03AM0.63m
3:54PM1.21m
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
mod rain
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:58
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:45
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:49
5:50
5:51
 mm
3
1
4
6
3
1
Temp °C
15
11
13
13
12
12
13
12
12
15
13
14
15
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
Feels °C
11
7
8
7
5
6
5
7
8
12
10
7
8
8
5
3
2
3
5
4
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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