Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it's Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks.

The overall pattern is a bit of a struggle to be honest. The first week is mostly a write-off with messy winds and pretty average conditions. There's a real standout that pops up right at the end of the second week, but you'll need to be patient and pick your moments.

The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right now, through Wednesday and Thursday, the 15th and 16th of July, it's just not worth paddling out. Wednesday morning has a 7ft SW swell (1594 combined energy), but the wind is a cross-on 25 km/h WNW, making it choppy and poor. The wind switches to onshore in the afternoon. Thursday is a bit better with a lighter 10 km/h SW cross-on breeze, but the swell drops to 6ft and the conditions are still only marginal. The period is a nice long 15 seconds, which is pure groundswell, but the wind keeps things messy.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are a mixed bag. Friday still has a solid 5ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, but the wind is cross-shore or cross-on, leaving a slight chop. Saturday morning is similar with 5ft swell, but the afternoon, now that's where it gets interesting.

Saturday afternoon, the 18th of July, is your best bet for the first week. The swell drops to a clean 4ft from the SW, but the wind goes glassy, dead calm from the east at 5 km/h. The water will be like glass. The combined energy is 518, which is moderate, but the conditions will be beautiful. It's a reef break that's consistent and fairly exposed to the SW, so this is the window to get a few smooth, clean waves. Expect crowds as it's an often crowded spot, but on a 4ft glassy day, it'll be worth sharing the peak.

From Sunday the 19th through to Tuesday the 22nd, the surf drops off hard. Swell sizes fall below 3ft, with periods up to 16 seconds, but the wind is a problem, mostly cross or cross-on, and the combined energy is low (mostly under 300). Not worth the effort.

Then from Wednesday the 23rd to Friday the 24th, the swell is building again. Wednesday the 23rd is a total write-off with onshore winds hitting 40 km/h. Thursday the 24th is the real standout of the whole outlook. Thursday afternoon, the 24th of July, is the one you want to circle. The swell is 8ft from the SW, with a 16-second period and a massive combined energy of 6542. The wind is light and cross-shore from the SSW at 10 km/h. The catch is that this is a reef break, so an 8ft swell is well into expert territory and will be big and powerful. The long period groundswell will make it a proper, heavy wave. The conditions are marginal, but if you're an experienced surfer, this is the day. The crowds will be likely.

The following weekend, Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, the wind ruins it again with fresh cross-onshore winds. The swell drops back down to 6ft and then 4ft, and the combined energy is around 1200, but with that lumpy, messy wind, it's a no-go.

The final stretch from Monday the 28th to Wednesday the 30th is just a mix of small, weak swell and strong, messy winds. There's a 1ft swell with a very long 18-second period on Tuesday the 28th, but with 35 km/h cross-shore winds, it's all chop and no shape. The 30th has a 5ft swell from the WSW, but the period is a short 10 seconds and the wind is still moderate.

The real standout is the Thursday afternoon session on the 24th of July for the big, clean, powerful groundswell. The glassy Saturday afternoon on the 18th is a nice little score for anyone wanting a more relaxed session.

Rusty.

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