Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 22 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 3,771 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 22 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Tue 22nd Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Tue 22nd Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 16th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the books for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks.
It’s a pretty bleak start, I’m not gonna lie. For the first week, you’re looking at a real run of poor conditions. From Tuesday the 15th right through to Monday the 21st of September, the wind is just relentless – mostly a strong to fresh cross-onshore breeze, making a right mess of things. The waves are there, but they’re blown out and choppy. Not worth paddling out for. There’s a solid week of not much to get excited about, apart from a bit of a messy, lumpy ocean.
Now, hold on to your board, because things finally turn around on Tuesday the 22nd of September. That morning, we get a gift. The wind swings to an offshore easterly – clean, moderate breeze – and we’ve got a nice 7ft SW groundswell with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy is pumping at 2772 (strong wave energy). This is serious, powerful swell. With that long period, it’ll have plenty of shape and push, and it’s breaking best over a reef setup like Flynns. This is a standout window for experienced surfers. The water is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than you’d normally feel for this time of year.
That Tuesday afternoon stays clean with a cross-off wind and a similar 7ft SW swell. Still good.
After that, it drops off again. Wednesday the 23rd is small, but the afternoon goes glassy with light wind from the SE – only 4ft of SW swell though, so not much to work with. Then we hit another rough patch from Thursday the 24th through to Monday the 28th of September. The wind picks up again, mostly cross to cross-onshore, and the swell is small or lumpy. Not your friend.
Then, look ahead to Tuesday the 29th of September – we get a bit of a reprieve. Moderate cross-off wind, a clean 6ft SW swell (16 second period, good energy at 1901). It’s marginal tide-wise but a far better option than the days around it.
The real sleeper might be Wednesday the 30th of September. Gentle offshore easterly wind, 5ft of clean SW swell. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and smooth – a great day for a longer session without the crowd pressure.
So, your best bets are Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 30th of September. The 22nd is the standout though – big, clean, powerful groundswell with an offshore wind. That’s the one to circle. But remember, this is a few weeks out, so keep an eye on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WNW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sun night. Warm (max 23°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2266 | 3152 | 3240 | 3151 | 3629 | 1850 | 1212 | 951 | 799 | 716 | 1096 | 821 | 694 | 732 | 423 | 175 | 573 | 548 | 725 | 808 | 2066 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:26PM2.30m | 3:08AM2.39m | 3:03PM2.30m | 3:48AM2.37m | 3:38PM2.27m | 4:26AM2.32m | 4:12PM2.21m | 5:03AM2.24m | 4:45PM2.14m | 5:41AM2.14m | 5:20PM2.05m | 6:23AM2.04m | 5:57PM1.95m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:45PM0.19m | 9:09AM0.59m | 9:23PM0.17m | 9:46AM0.64m | 9:59PM0.19m | 10:22AM0.71m | 10:35PM0.25m | 10:57AM0.79m | 11:11PM0.34m | 11:33AM0.89m | 11:49PM0.44m | 12:13PM0.98m | 00:31AM0.54m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | |  | | |  | |
 | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — |
mm | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | — | SW 15 | — | — | SW 16 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 3151 | 3629 | 1850 | 1212 | 951 | 799 | 716 | 1096 | 821 | 694 | 732 | 423 | 175 | — | 76 | — | — | 2066 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | SSW 18 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 40 | 375 | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | 57 | — | — | — | — | 216 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 172 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | SW 6 | SW 6 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 6 |
| kJ | 2266 | 3152 | 3240 | 2483 | 2264 | 91 | 49 | 77 | 92 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 573 | 548 | 725 | 808 | 66 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 451 | 776 | 264 | 126 | 126 | 2 | 70 | 84 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 61 | 69 | 2 | 11 | 61 | 131 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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