Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are looking pretty wild around Flynns Reef, but not in a good way for a while. We’ve got a whole lot of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be the enemy for most of it. It’s a classic case of plenty of ocean energy, but the conditions are gonna be messy, blown-out, and pretty much unsurfable for days on end. We’re looking at a solid stretch of onshore and cross-onshore winds that are going to chew up any quality the swell might have. Don’t get too amped for the first week.

The first few days are a total write-off. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th are going to be rough with fresh, lumpy conditions and poor surf. The wind is just all over it. Thursday the 6th isn’t any better, still cross-onshore and choppy. We’re not even talking about getting wet until later in the week.

Then things start to get interesting. On Friday the 7th, the wind is forecast to die right off through the afternoon. That morning is still questionable, but by the afternoon it’s looking glassy. That’s our first real window. We’ve got about a 4ft southwest swell with a nice 15-second period, and the energy is moderate. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and that makes all the difference on a reef like this.

Saturday the 8th is a tease. The morning has a clean cross-offshore breeze and a similar 4ft southwest swell, but it gets messy again by the afternoon as the wind swings around and picks up. Sunday the 9th is a total blowout. We’re looking at near gale-force winds that will have the ocean completely torn up, so forget it.

Now, hold on. Around Monday the 10th, the swell really starts to fill in. We’re talking about a solid 7-8ft southwest swell with 17-second period and the energy jumping up to strong. But the wind is still absolutely howling onshore. It’s going to be a giant, lumpy, cross-onshore mess. This is where the setup looks way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, if you ask me. That huge, raw energy is there, but it’s just not ridable for a normal board.

Things get even bigger on Wednesday the 12th. The models are showing up to 13ft of southwest swell with a crazy strong energy reading. But again, it’s coming with near gale-force cross-onshore winds. Completely blown out. This is pure, raw ocean power and it's not for the faint of heart. Only the most experienced would even consider it, and even then, it's not going to be pretty.

We ride out this big, windy period through the weekend. The swell comes down a bit, but the wind stays cross-onshore and lumpy. There’s still a lot of energy in the water, but it’s just not clean.

Then, finally, our standout arrives. On Tuesday the 18th, things turn a corner. The wind is forecast to swing offshore and die to a light breeze, leaving the ocean clean. The swell is a manageable 5ft from the southwest with a 16-second period. The energy is solid and moderate. This is the one to look for. It’s a clean, well-ordered southwest groundswell hitting a reef that loves that direction. This is the day to get your time in. Flynns Reef is consistent, but it’s often crowded, so expect to share the lineup.

Wednesday the 19th looks like it fades back into the onshore wind pattern, so Tuesday is your window.

All in all, there’s a lot of water moving over the next two weeks, but very few clean windows. Don’t force it early. Wait for that offshore wind and glassy conditions next Tuesday the 18th. That’s your session.

Rusty.

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