Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 08 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.6°C
0.9° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-shore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 18s period, SW swell with 8,167 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 3.0m and 18s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 18s
Best Surf10PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 18s
Most Powerful10PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 18s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, it's Rusty here.

Right, let’s be honest with you about the next couple of weeks. We've got a bit of a slow burn on our hands with Flynns Reef. The ocean's going to be in a bit of a mood, and we're going to have to wait for the good windows.

The week starts off pretty average. Tuesday the 8th is nothing to write home about—there's some small swell around 3ft to 5ft, but the wind is on it, and it's looking choppy and marginal. The water's sitting at a notable 57°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that's a small bonus if you're keen for a paddle.

Wednesday the 9th is a write-off. A strong SW swell builds to 10ft, but it's coming with a strong cross-onshore wind that's going to make a mess of things. The wave energy will be strong (8044), but it's not going to be any fun. This is big and lumpy, and only for the experienced if anyone's silly enough to go out.

Thursday the 10th is still messy, with 8ft of cross-onshore chop. Not good. We finally get a bit of a breather on Friday the 11th, with the swell dropping to around 5ft, but it's still cross-shore and pretty weak. The best bet is Saturday the 12th afternoon—the wind swings to a light cross-offshore, cleaning things up on the 5ft SW swell. It's not huge, but it'll be the first clean session of the run. Make the most of it because Sunday the 13th gets blown out again by a fresh northerly.

The start of the following week is poor. Monday the 14th is small and choppy, and Tuesday the 15th has fresh cross-onshore winds on a short-period 5ft swell. That's poor.

Then we get a classic. Wednesday the 16th morning looks like a beauty. The wind drops to glassy, and there's a clean 5ft SW swell with a period of 13 seconds. The energy is moderate (1299), but the surface is going to be like a mirror. This is your standout for the week. It'll be clean and lined up. The break is a reef setup, so this longer-period swell will work well.

After that, the wind turns onshore again from Thursday the 17th through the 19th, and it's back to messy conditions. Saturday the 19th has a bit more size at 5ft, but it's still lumpy.

Then, looking into the long range, we've got another promising window around Monday the 21st. There's a 7ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, and light offshore winds are forecast for the morning. The energy will be moderate (2140), and the conditions are looking clean. This is a proper swell, and Flynns should be handling it well. It's a bit far out, so we'll see, but that's the one to keep an eye on. Tuesday the 22nd afternoon also has a glassy window with a smaller but still clean 4ft swell.

After that, the winds get strong and messy again to close out the period.

So, to sum it up: we've got a rough start, a clean little window on Saturday the 12th afternoon, a true standout on Wednesday the 16th morning, and a promising but less certain larger swell on Monday the 21st. Keep your expectations low for the rest of it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 9°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Tue night, calm by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, strong winds from the NNW by Sun night).

Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
0
0
0
6
0
0
3
2
2
3
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
SW
18
1.6
SW
17
2
SW
16
3
SW
20
3
SW
18
3
SW
18
2.5
SW
17
2.3
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.7
SW
15
1.8
SW
16
1.7
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
15
1.2
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
15
0.8
SW
14
0.7
SW
13
1.8
SW
7
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
540
1555
1919
6529
5419
6323
3544
2612
1581
1108
1246
1707
1384
1185
871
666
572
365
273
176
308
Wind (km/h)
15
W
15
SW
35
WSW
40
SSW
35
SSW
25
SSW
20
SW
20
SW
10
SW
5
WSW
10
SSW
10
N
10
NNW
5
SE
15
N
30
N
30
N
40
N
25
NW
20
SW
40
WSW
Wind State
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
7:35PM2.08m
9:08AM2.07m
8:51PM2.00m
10:18AM2.07m
10:16PM1.99m
11:22AM2.11m
11:35PM2.06m
12:16PM2.17m
00:42AM2.17m
1:04PM2.24m
1:37AM2.28m
1:46PM2.28m
2:25AM2.36m
Low Tide
1:48PM0.99m
2:20AM0.35m
3:02PM1.00m
3:33AM0.45m
4:21PM0.91m
4:47AM0.51m
5:32PM0.76m
5:55AM0.53m
6:30PM0.57m
6:53AM0.53m
7:20PM0.40m
7:43AM0.54m
8:04PM0.27m
clear
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
6:24
6:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
6:06
6:07
6:07
 mm
1
Temp °C
10
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
12
12
16
19
17
19
21
18
18
16
13
Feels °C
6
5
5
1
3
4
6
6
8
9
9
11
14
16
14
13
15
12
14
9
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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