Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,966 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s break it down in feet and knots.
We’re only looking at Flynns Reef this time around. It’s a consistent, expert-level reef, and the first clean session is a solid week and a half away. The early part of the forecast is nothing but junk.
Water temp is about 56°F at the start, right around average for the time of year.
Tuesday 11th through Friday 14th is a dead loss. WNW winds blowing 25 to 30 knots are cross-onshore, turning the place into a lumpy mess. The swell is coming in from the SW at 3 to 8 feet with a 14 to 16 second period, but it’s all blown out. The energy is there (880 to 2865), but you’d never know it. Don’t bother.
Saturday 15th is the day. The morning is still iffy, but the afternoon is the real deal. The wind swings light from the SSE, going cross-offshore, and the waves clean up perfectly. You’ve got a 6-foot SW groundswell with a 15-second period, and 1418 combined energy. The reef will be drawing nice lines. This is for experienced surfers only – the size and the reef mean it’s too much for beginners.
Sunday 16th has a smaller 5-foot SW swell, still clean in the morning. Good for a step down if Saturday is too spicy.
Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th drop off into small, clean 4-foot waves. Longboard territory.
From Wednesday 19th, it’s small and weak. The swell drops under 3 feet, and onshore wind returns. There’s a quick glassy session on Thursday 20th afternoon with a 3-foot leftover pulse, but it’s marginal.
Late in the month, on Wednesday 26th afternoon, we get a 8-foot short-period (9 seconds) pulse with onshore winds. That’s kite-surfing conditions, not for a paddle board.
Bottom line: your best bet is Saturday 15th afternoon. Clean, 6-foot SW swell, light offshore breeze. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NNW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 528 | 791 | 822 | 1364 | 2326 | 4966 | 2865 | 2668 | 2668 | 2414 | 2212 | 1983 | 1632 | 1399 | 1123 | 813 | 726 | 650 | 499 | 506 | 773 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:56PM2.08m | 10:44AM2.16m | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | 1:33PM2.37m | 1:48AM2.24m | 2:17PM2.42m | 2:42AM2.31m | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:18PM1.08m | 3:48AM0.22m | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | 7:05AM0.30m | 7:45PM0.51m | 7:59AM0.34m | 8:33PM0.35m | 8:47AM0.41m | 9:17PM0.24m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — |
 | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 124 | 791 | 822 | 1364 | 2326 | 3048 | 2865 | 2668 | 2668 | 2414 | 2212 | 1983 | 1632 | 1399 | 1123 | 813 | 726 | 650 | 499 | 506 | 773 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | — | SW 17 | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | ESE 5 | — |
| kJ | 528 | — | 482 | — | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 9 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | NW 3 | NW 4 | W 5 | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | SE 5 | E 5 | — | ESE 5 |
| kJ | 241 | 6 | 22 | 61 | 776 | 4966 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 10 | 31 | — | 17 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 61 | 258 | 70 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 101 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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