Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. Flynns Reef is the only game in town, and it’s a mixed bag. The water temp is 57°F, right about average for the time of year, nothing weird.

We start Wednesday 22 July with some SW swell, but the wind is cross-on at 22 mph, making it lumpy and ugly. Not worth the wetty. The swell builds through the week, but the wind stays onshore or cross-on, gusting hard. Thursday 23 July has the swell at 7ft in the morning, then 8ft in the afternoon, both from the SW with a 14-second period. That’s quality groundswell, but with 22 to 28 mph onshore wind, it’s blown to bits. The energy is huge – 1983 in the morning, 2524 in the arvo – lots of power, no shape.

Friday 24 July is the biggest day, with the morning swell hitting 10ft from the SW, period 16 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy reading is 3604, massive. The wind is onshore at 22 mph though, so it’s a beast but messy. This is strictly for experts. The afternoon drops to 8ft but still onshore. Saturday 25 July keeps the size around 8 to 8ft, still onshore, still poor. Sunday 26 July the swell drops to 5ft, but the wind is cross-on in the morning, then finally goes light offshore in the afternoon – 4ft from the SW, 11-second period, and a light breeze from the WNW. That’s the first clean window, but the swell is small and the energy is only 381 – weak. It’s surfable but nothing special.

Monday 27 July is back to cross-on wind and lumpy, with 4 to 5ft swell. Tuesday 28 July offers a glimmer – the morning has 6ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and a gentle cross-shore breeze (9 mph from the NNW). The energy is 1948, so there’s lots of power. The guidance calls it marginal due to tide, but it’s the best we’ve had. The afternoon drops to 5ft with a light cross-on breeze, not as good.

Now, the real standout is Wednesday 29 July. The morning session has 6ft of SW groundswell, period 15 seconds, and a clean cross-offshore breeze from the SSE at 16 mph. The energy is 1829 – strong, solid. The afternoon is similar, 6ft with the same clean wind. This is the day to be out. It’s a reef break, so it handles that long-period swell well, and the wind is offshore enough to keep the faces clean. It’s an advanced wave, so beginners stay on the sand, but for the experienced crew, this is the pick of the fortnight. The crowd factor is often, so expect company.

Thursday 30 July has a fresh offshore wind in the morning from the E at 22 mph, with 4ft of SSW swell, period 13 seconds – clean but small. The energy is only 590. The afternoon gets a strong cross-offshore breeze, but the swell drops further. Friday 31 July is similar, small and clean in the morning (3ft, 169 energy), then goes cross-on and choppy in the arvo.

The first weekend of August is a write-off – Saturday 1 August is cross-shore and lumpy, Sunday 2 August the same. Monday 3 August offers a slight chance in the morning with 2ft of very long-period SW swell (23 seconds!) and a clean cross-offshore breeze, but the energy is only 895 – weak. That super-long period will make the reef work, but it’s tiny. The afternoon gets lumpy again.

From Tuesday 4 August onwards, the wind turns onshore and strong, with big swell (8 to 8ft) and high energy, but it’s just messy. Wednesday 5 August has 8ft and onshore gale-force winds – that’s a kite-surfing day, not a paddle day. The setup at this beach-and-reef spot with that much wind and swell is far more interesting for the kites. Thursday 6 August fades out with small, choppy leftover swell.

So, to sum it up: the best surf on offer is the morning of Wednesday 29 July at Flynns Reef – 6ft of SW groundswell, clean cross-offshore wind, strong energy. After that, Tuesday 28 July morning is a decent second option. Everything else is either too windy, too small, or too big and messy. There’s a gap of about three days in the middle of the second week where it’s flat or blown out, and then it finishes with a windy mess.

Rusty.

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