Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 5 Aug 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 12 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 6,460 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, grab your wettie, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this spot. Honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag for the next couple of weeks, but we’ve got some potential if you’re patient.
The first real chance for a wave is building in from the start of the month, but the early days are a write-off. The swell is tiny and the wind is messy. Wednesday afternoon the 5th has a weak 2ft SW swell, but it’s cross-on and choppy, so you’re better off doing something else.
We do get a solid pulse of energy from the SW late in the week. Friday morning the 7th has a 4ft SW swell, but the wind is still cross-on and kills it. The afternoon actually looks a bit more interesting with a 5ft SW swell and light cross-shore breeze, but it’s only rated as marginal. The combined energy is moderate (1037), so there’s some push there, but it’s not clean enough to get excited about.
The real standout is going to be a bit of a wait, but it’s worth it. Sunday the 16th afternoon is our best bet. We’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell with a period of 15 seconds, so it’s got that long, powerful energy that will really wrap into Flynns Reef. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the SSE, and the forecast is for very good surf conditions. The combined energy is strong (1025), and that offshore breeze will keep the reef lines clean and fast. For experienced surfers, this is the session to target. The crowd is likely to be around, but for waves this good, you’ll make some friends.
Things get a bit sketchy before that. The 10th and 12th of August have huge SW swells pushing over 10ft, but the wind is either onshore or strong cross-on, making it a messy, blown-out mess. The energy is very high (5483 on the 10th), but it’s not surfable for paddle surfing. It’s more of a kite-show.
After that, the 15th of August has a 7ft SW swell, but the wind is light cross-on, and it’s only marginal. The following week starts to fade, with smaller swells and more lumpy wind.
So, to sum it up: the early part of the month is a bust. The one clear winner is Sunday afternoon the 16th of August at Flynns Reef. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so a 4/3 is the call. Get out there for that window.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Fri afternoon, fresh winds from the N by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Sun night, moderate winds from the WNW by Mon afternoon). | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 21 | SW 10 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 175 | 150 | 175 | 155 | 311 | 820 | 882 | 453 | 823 | 692 | 598 | 422 | 215 | 617 | 2177 | 5366 | 2203 | 746 | 513 | 714 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:09PM2.33m | 4:50AM2.23m | 4:43PM2.32m | 5:36AM2.25m | 5:19PM2.29m | 6:26AM2.24m | 6:01PM2.26m | 7:22AM2.21m | 6:49PM2.20m | 8:25AM2.16m | 7:46PM2.14m | 9:34AM2.14m | 8:56PM2.08m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:32PM0.29m | 10:44AM0.65m | 11:10PM0.20m | 11:26AM0.75m | 11:53PM0.14m | 12:12PM0.85m | 00:41AM0.12m | 1:05PM0.96m | 1:36AM0.14m | 2:06PM1.04m | 2:39AM0.18m | 3:18PM1.08m | 3:48AM0.22m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — |
mm | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 8 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 6 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | ESE 10 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | 132 | 136 | 175 | 112 | 59 | 820 | 882 | 453 | 823 | 692 | 598 | 422 | 215 | 486 | 9 | 117 | 2203 | 746 | 513 | 714 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 7 | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | — | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 21 | — | ESE 10 | — | — | SE 12 | SW 21 |
| kJ | 130 | 150 | 93 | 155 | 311 | 43 | 19 | 437 | — | — | — | 51 | 108 | 617 | — | 10 | — | — | 5 | 647 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SSW 18 | — | SW 20 | SW 14 | SSW 7 | SW 20 | SW 6 | — | — | — | — | SW 25 | WNW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 21 |
| kJ | 175 | 30 | — | 15 | 130 | 38 | 136 | 9 | — | — | — | — | 25 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 44 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 5 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | WSW 6 | — | — | WSW 6 | NNW 4 | NW 3 | N 3 | N 4 | NNW 4 | N 4 | SW 10 | SW 17 | WSW 9 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 4 |
| kJ | — | 47 | 2 | 1 | 128 | — | — | 15 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 7 | 2177 | 5366 | 791 | 27 | 37 | 29 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 27 | 94 | 84 | 159 | 73 | 70 | 22 | 61 | 103 | 61 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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