Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 01 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.4° 

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 6 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, WSW swell with 1,634 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 1.9m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 08) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Thu 6th Aug)2.5ft (0.7m) 16s
Best Surf10PM (Thu 6th Aug)3.5ft (1.0m) 18s
Most Powerful 4PM (Mon 3rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, switching to feet and Fahrenheit.

The first good surf window opens up on Saturday, August 1st, but don’t get too excited. We’ve got a long period SW groundswell rolling in at 2ft to 4ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s some serious energy in the water, and the combined swell energy is moderate at 466, building to 1151. The issue is the wind. Saturday morning we’ve got a 15 km/h NNE cross-off breeze, which is workable, but the afternoon swings to a cross-shore that’ll put a bit of chop on the surface. The water temp is 56°, which is about normal for this time of year, nothing weird there.

Sunday, August 2nd, is a write-off. Fresh 30 km/h north winds just spoil the surface, and the swell is lumpy with cross-chop. The combined energy is still moderate (1050 and 892), but the wind is just too messy. Monday and Tuesday are even worse, with onshore winds and rain showers. Monday morning sees a strong 45 km/h cross-on wind, and the combined energy jumps to 1634, but the surf quality is poor. That’s a no-go for a paddle surfer.

We get a bit of a break on Wednesday, August 5th, but the swell drops to 2ft and the wind is cross-on, so it’s just not worth it. The combined energy is weak (443 and 472). Thursday and Friday are marginal at best, with light winds but small swell.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday afternoon, August 7th, you want to be in the water. The wind goes glassy, and the swell is a clean 4ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1169. That’s as good as it gets in this window. The reef at Flynns Reef will be handling that long-period groundswell nicely, and with glassy conditions, the waves will be clean and lined up. This is a reef break, so the long period is a major plus – it’ll wrap in and give you some proper barrels. It’s an advanced spot, and it’s consistent, so expect a few heads out there, but it’s often crowded, so be prepared for company.

After that, we get a bit of a messy spell. Saturday, August 8th, the wind picks back up to 40 km/h, which is a write-off. Sunday and Monday are also poor, with onshore winds and lumpy conditions.

Then, things get interesting again around Monday, August 10th, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The afternoon sees a 7ft SW swell with a combined energy of 4220, which is strong. The problem is the wind is cross-on, so it’ll be choppy and challenging. That’s a big wave for experts, but the wind isn’t cooperating.

The next real highlight comes on Tuesday, August 11th, and Wednesday, August 12th. Tuesday morning brings a 6ft SW swell with a 15-second period and a light north cross-shore at 10 km/h. The combined energy is 1545, and with light wind, it’ll be a clean, powerful wave. Wednesday morning is similar, with a 7ft SW swell, 14-second period, and light north cross-shore. The combined energy is 1527. This is a solid run of surf for the experienced crew. The swell is big enough that it’s for experts only, and the long period groundswell will be working best on the reef. Expect some serious energy.

We get a bit more action on Thursday, August 13th, but the wind is cross-on and lumpy, so it’s not worth it. Friday, August 14th, has a 7ft SW swell with a 17-second period and combined energy of 2684, but the wind is still cross-on, even if it’s light. It’s a marginal call, but for the brave, the wave size is there.

The last few days, August 15th and 16th, see the swell dropping off. Saturday is messy with onshore winds, but Sunday, August 16th, the afternoon clears up with a 4ft SW swell, 17-second period, and a light cross-off wind from the SSE at 10 km/h. The combined energy is 1190, and the conditions are clean. That’s a nice way to finish the run.

If you’re picking a single session, the Friday afternoon, August 7th, is the true standout – glassy, clean, and a decent swell. The Tuesday and Wednesday mornings (August 11th and 12th) are for the experts who want some serious power.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the WNW by Mon morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Thu morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Tue morning, calm by Thu afternoon).

Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
18
1.3
SW
18
1.6
SW
17
1.4
SW
16
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
1.9
WSW
15
1.2
SW
13
1.3
SW
12
1.8
SW
12
0.8
SW
12
0.5
SW
20
0.7
SW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.7
SW
12
0.4
SW
20
1.1
SW
18
1.4
SW
16
1.2
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
249
1087
1449
1029
886
696
535
1634
511
481
855
187
186
200
192
144
136
786
979
631
535
Wind (km/h)
15
NNE
15
NNW
20
NNE
30
N
30
N
30
NW
45
WNW
35
W
25
W
25
W
25
SW
25
SW
20
SW
10
WSW
20
WNW
15
NW
5
WSW
10
N
15
N
5
N
20
NNE
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
2:01PM2.23m
1:54AM1.94m
2:35PM2.28m
2:41AM2.02m
3:07PM2.31m
3:24AM2.10m
3:38PM2.33m
4:07AM2.18m
4:09PM2.33m
4:50AM2.23m
4:43PM2.32m
5:36AM2.25m
5:19PM2.29m
Low Tide
8:11PM0.80m
8:05AM0.47m
8:48PM0.66m
8:45AM0.49m
9:23PM0.53m
9:24AM0.52m
9:57PM0.40m
10:03AM0.58m
10:32PM0.29m
10:44AM0.65m
11:10PM0.20m
11:26AM0.75m
11:53PM0.14m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
7:15
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:30
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
5:34
5:35
 mm
1
1
3
8
2
2
Temp °C
11
14
12
13
15
13
11
12
11
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
12
12
13
15
13
Feels °C
6
10
7
6
8
7
2
4
6
6
7
8
8
10
9
8
10
10
10
13
9
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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