Flynns Reef Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.49° S 145.15° E

Issued: 3 am 05 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Flynns Reef sea temperature is
14.1° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Flynns Reef surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Flynns Reef surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 19s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 17s period, SW swell with 2,683 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:

The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 2.2m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Mon 6th Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 15s
Best Surf10AM (Wed 8th Jul)4ft (1.2m) 19s
Most Powerful 1PM (Sun 5th Jul)7ft (2.2m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what Flynns Reef has in store for us. This is a solid reef break, good with a SW swell, and it's consistent.

Water temp is about 57° F, pretty normal for this season. Nothing to fuss about.

First bit of action kicks off Sunday morning, July 5th. We’ve got a hefty 8ft SW swell pushing in, with an absurdly long period of 17 seconds. That’s a serious groundswell, packing a huge energy punch at 4686. The wind is cross-off from the ESE at 25 km/h, keeping things clean. This is proper heavy water, over 8ft, so leave this one for the experts only – big, powerful waves and rips. Sunday afternoon drops to 7ft with that long period still, but the wind cranks to 35 km/h, making it a bit hairier.

Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th drop right down to 4ft. It’s still a nice SW groundswell with periods of 14 to 17 seconds. Energy is moderate (547-693 range). Tuesday morning has near-glass conditions with a light N wind, so you’ll get some clean, peeling waves on the reef. Good for most surfers on these smaller days. Expect some company though – the spot is “often” crowded.

Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday, July 8th. This is the day. Morning swell sits at 4ft, picks up to 5ft by the afternoon, all from the SW with a very long 18-19 second period. The energy is strong (1534-1828). The wind is the star: an offshore ENE breeze in the morning, turning to glass in the afternoon. That offshore wind will groom the reef perfectly, giving you clean, powerful, well-shaped waves. If you’re going to get in the water this week, Wednesday is your money day.

Everything after Wednesday the 8th turns sour. By Friday the 10th, the wind switches onshore or cross-onshore from the N and NW, ramping up from 15 to 40-50 km/h. From Saturday the 11th onward, it’s all cross-onshore and messy. Even when the swell pumps up to 7ft on Monday the 13th, it’s accompanied by a fresh cross-onshore gale. The wave energy ranges from moderate to very strong (970-3102) during this period, but the surface is completely blown out. Not worth paddling out.

This poor pattern sticks around through the weekend and into the following week. We don’t see any real improvement until Sunday the 19th, and even that is marginal with a light cross-onshore. The last few days are just messy cross-shore chop.

So here’s the straight talk: your window is early. Thursday the 8th is the gem. The earlier Sunday swell is for the brave. After that, it’s a long gale-force slog until the very end. Keep an eye on that Tuesday the 7th too for small clean waves. Otherwise, it’s a tough stretch.

Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue night, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the E on Sun afternoon, calm by Mon morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
4
3
2
2
3
1
2
1
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
17
2
SSW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.9
SW
14
1.1
SW
17
1.1
SW
16
1.2
SW
15
1.2
SW
19
1.6
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
1.2
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
18
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
0.8
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
3110
2269
1101
543
407
272
663
560
623
1005
1591
1109
692
472
522
897
763
492
346
277
205
Wind (km/h)
25
ESE
35
ESE
30
E
10
NNE
5
SSW
10
NNE
5
NNE
10
SSE
20
E
10
ENE
5
NE
15
NNE
10
N
5
NNE
10
NNE
15
N
10
NNW
20
N
25
N
30
N
35
N
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
glassy
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
High Tide
3:36PM2.32m
3:37AM1.96m
4:08PM2.32m
4:21AM2.00m
4:39PM2.30m
5:06AM2.04m
5:11PM2.27m
5:54AM2.09m
5:47PM2.24m
6:47AM2.13m
6:28PM2.20m
7:46AM2.16m
7:15PM2.16m
Low Tide
9:51PM0.70m
9:40AM0.49m
10:26PM0.61m
10:19AM0.56m
11:01PM0.51m
11:00AM0.64m
11:38PM0.41m
11:45AM0.74m
00:19AM0.31m
12:34PM0.85m
1:07AM0.22m
1:31PM0.96m
2:01AM0.16m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:37
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:09
5:10
5:10
5:12
5:12
5:13
5:14
 mm
Temp °C
12
10
9
10
12
12
11
12
13
10
11
10
10
11
11
11
13
11
12
12
13
Feels °C
6
2
2
9
10
10
10
9
9
7
9
6
8
9
8
7
9
6
7
5
6
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
17
2
SSW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1
SW
14
0.9
SW
14
1.1
SW
17
1.1
SW
16
1.2
SW
15
1.2
SW
19
1.6
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
1.2
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
18
1.3
SW
16
1.3
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
14
0.8
SW
14
0.8
SW
13
Energy kJ
3110
2269
1101
543
407
272
663
560
623
1005
1591
1109
692
472
522
897
763
492
346
277
205
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
SSW
16
0.9
SSW
16
0.3
SE
5
0.2
SSE
5
0.1
SW
20
0.2
SSW
18
0.2
SSW
23
1
SW
14
0.6
SSW
17
0.2
ESE
11
0.1
SW
22
0.8
SW
14
Energy kJ
1576
469
4
2
16
30
54
404
237
12
18
281
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
WSW
19
0.1
S
23
0.4
SSW
19
0.2
WSW
21
0.3
SSW
18
Energy kJ
36
11
125
44
62
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
ESE
4
0.8
ESE
5
0.5
NE
3
0.5
N
3
0.3
NNW
3
0.4
NNW
3
0.7
N
4
Energy kJ
31
26
6
5
2
5
13
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
5
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
4
3
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
Distance (km)
1
111
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
9
2
9
9
27
27
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island
Rating
(10 max)
5
2
3
2
3
3
3
4
4
3
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
5
9
7
4
3
8
7
4
5
7
5
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
2
4
2
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
5
9
7
5
5
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
6
6
5
5
4
6
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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