Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 26 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 12s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 3,510 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 26 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 26) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 5s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.3m 7s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Wed 26th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Wed 26th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Flynns Reef.
Right off the bat, don’t get too excited. This is a classic case of a solid swell source but the wind is just not playing ball for the next week or so. For the first few days, from Wednesday the 19th through to Monday the 24th, we’ve got persistent cross to cross-on winds, often from the north or northwest, and they’re blowing hard. Combined wave energy is moderate to strong, but it’s all messy, choppy, and just not worth paddling out for. It’s a write-off for anyone wanting a clean wave.
The wind starts to clean up a bit by Tuesday the 25th. We see some cross-off winds from the SSE, with a 4ft to 4ft SW swell, and a period around 12 seconds. The energy is moderate, and the clean faces are a nice change, but the surf quality is still poor. It’s a step in the right direction, but not a day to call in sick for.
Wednesday the 26th is more of the same – clean in the morning with light NNE winds, but the swell is only 4ft and the energy is dropping. It’s marginal.
We get another hammering on Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th with strong winds and stormy conditions. Friday the 28th actually has a big jump in energy from a 8ft SW swell, but with strong cross-shore winds, it’s a mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not for a paddle surfer.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is Saturday the 29th of August through to Monday the 1st of September. Saturday morning, the 29th, is the clear winner. We’ve got clean conditions with a light cross-off wind from the SE, a nice 5ft SW swell with a period of 14 seconds. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one you want. It won't be huge, but it'll be clean and fun on the reef.
The quality holds up into Sunday the 30th with offshore winds in the morning, though the swell drops a touch to 4ft. Monday the 31st sees a bigger 5ft to 5ft SW swell with a very nice 16-second period pushing through, but the wind kicks up strong in the afternoon. The morning should be solid with a moderate offshore breeze.
Looking way out, Tuesday the 1st of September morning looks promising again with light winds and a clean 5ft SW swell, and then the real gem might be Thursday the 3rd of September. It’s a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt, but the data shows offshore light winds, a 5ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. If that holds, it’s going to be a classic groundswell day for the advanced crew here.
So, to wrap it up: the first week is a bust. Don’t bother. The standout is Saturday the 29th of August morning. The second-best window is Monday the 1st of September morning, and keep an eye on that Thursday the 3rd of September.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue night, min 11°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
339 | 206 | 147 | 171 | 114 | 282 | 147 | 468 | 472 | 1081 | 1958 | 1847 | 1638 | 1033 | 1339 | 1055 | 650 | 623 | 695 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:16AM2.31m | 4:11PM2.36m | 4:59AM2.26m | 4:46PM2.28m | 5:39AM2.18m | 5:20PM2.19m | 6:21AM2.09m | 5:54PM2.09m | 7:05AM1.99m | 6:31PM1.99m | 7:57AM1.91m | 7:14PM1.89m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:12AM0.59m | 10:36PM0.20m | 10:51AM0.70m | 11:14PM0.25m | 11:28AM0.81m | 11:51PM0.32m | 12:06PM0.92m | 00:30AM0.41m | 12:47PM1.03m | 1:13AM0.50m | 1:35PM1.13m | 2:04AM0.57m | |||||||
— | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 8 |
Temp °C | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 11 |
Feels °C | 13 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 |
339 | 206 | 147 | 171 | 89 | 282 | 147 | 468 | 472 | 1081 | 1958 | 1847 | 1638 | 1033 | 1339 | 1055 | 650 | 623 | 695 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | SW 21 | WSW 9 | SW 17 | SW 18 | SW 20 | WSW 7 | SSW 17 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 17 | — | — | W 22 | SW 21 | SW 19 |
193 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 106 | 111 | 98 | 68 | 59 | — | — | 15 | 505 | — | — | 9 | 18 | 59 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 4 | — | — | ESE 7 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
1 | — | — | 5 | 114 | 140 | — | — | 129 | — | — | — | — | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | W 4 | NW 4 | W 7 | W 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 9 | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | — |
— | 3 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 52 | 88 | 192 | 217 | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 17 | 5 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 7 | 49 | 49 | 61 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 70 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 61 | 4 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











