Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 7,468 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 3.0m and 18s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Flynns Reef.
Alright, straight up, the next few days are a write-off. We’ve got a solid SW groundswell pushing through, but that cross-on wind is just ruining it. Wednesday the 9th is a no-go—25 mph winds from the SSW, 10ft of messy, lumpy slop. Thursday the 10th is barely better. You’re looking at a couple of days of nothing worthwhile.
Then, things start to turn. Friday morning, the 11th, is where it gets interesting. The wind drops to glassy, calm conditions, and we’ve got a 5ft SW swell with a long 15-second period. The combined energy is moderate (1123), and the water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year. This is a standout window—clean, glassy surf, but that long period groundswell might make it break a bit too straight for a beach break, so keep that in mind. Flynns Reef is a reef, so it should handle it well.
Saturday the 12th keeps it clean. Morning sees a slight N breeze, cross-off, with 6ft SW swell and 16-second period. Combined energy is moderate (1384). The afternoon is clean too with a light SE breeze. This is another good session for experienced surfers, but it’s not quite the standout of Friday morning.
Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are back to poor conditions with fresh cross-shore and cross-onshore winds. The swell drops right off to 2ft by Monday afternoon. Another gap.
Tuesday the 15th sees a new SW pulse kick in, 8ft to 10ft, but it’s cross-on and choppy. Not worth it unless you’re into a beating.
Now, Wednesday the 16th is a real standout. Morning has a light cross-shore NNW breeze with 6ft SW swell (1363 energy), but the afternoon is the gem—glassy, calm conditions, 7ft SW swell with a 17-second period, and combined energy (2474) is moderate-to-strong. This is excellent for experienced surfers, but that 7ft is getting into expert-only territory, so know your limits. The long period will make it punchy and clean at the reef.
The rest of the forecast from the 17th to the 24th is mostly poor, with strong winds and messy conditions. The 22nd shows some marginal potential with light winds and a 6ft to 7ft SW swell, but it’s cross-on and not clean enough to recommend.
Overall, the best windows are Friday morning the 11th and Wednesday afternoon the 16th. Mark your calendar.
Stay safe out there.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Fri morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, strong winds from the WSW by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 9 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 7344 | 5133 | 7284 | 3334 | 2465 | 1602 | 1123 | 1279 | 1829 | 1384 | 1200 | 1041 | 614 | 505 | 309 | 265 | 173 | 702 | 1670 | 2929 | 1422 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:51PM2.00m | 10:18AM2.07m | 10:16PM1.99m | 11:22AM2.11m | 11:35PM2.06m | 12:16PM2.17m | 00:42AM2.17m | 1:04PM2.24m | 1:37AM2.28m | 1:46PM2.28m | 2:25AM2.36m | 2:26PM2.30m | 3:08AM2.39m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:02PM1.00m | 3:33AM0.45m | 4:21PM0.91m | 4:47AM0.51m | 5:32PM0.76m | 5:55AM0.53m | 6:30PM0.57m | 6:53AM0.53m | 7:20PM0.40m | 7:43AM0.54m | 8:04PM0.27m | 8:28AM0.56m | 8:45PM0.19m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — |
 | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | — | SW 13 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 1299 | 373 | 7284 | 3334 | 2465 | 1602 | 1123 | 1279 | 1829 | 1384 | 1200 | 1041 | 614 | 505 | 309 | 265 | 173 | — | — | 2929 | 1422 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 20 | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 216 | — | 454 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 54 | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 19 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SSW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | SW 9 | SW 12 | SW 13 | — |
| kJ | 7344 | 5133 | 5122 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 702 | 1670 | 1693 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 525 | 474 | 73 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 61 | 21 | 70 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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