Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next stretch for Flynns Reef. It’s a solid reef setup that likes a good SW groundswell, but man, the wind gods are just not playing ball for the foreseeable future. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

The big story here is a whole lot of swell with terrible wind. For days. We’re talking a solid 3.0m SW groundswell on Friday the 24th with a period of 15 seconds and a massive combined energy of 4111 (strong to very strong), but that strong breeze onshore from the W is going to ruin it. That’s a no-go. That same pattern holds through Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th – the swell is still pumping, but the wind is just trash, making it messy and choppy.

We get a bit of a lull in the swell through Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, but the wind is still cross or cross-on, so it’s all poor. The real punch comes back on Wednesday the 29th of July – another big pulse of 2.5m SW swell at 15 seconds, with combined energy hitting 3185. The wind is a cross-on moderate breeze, which is still a problem. It’s frustrating to watch because the reef is going to be handling that energy, but it’s going to be a lumpy, onshore mess.

You have to wait all the way until Friday the 31st of July for the first real glimmer of hope. The swell drops right down to 0.9m on the afternoon, but the wind goes glassy. That’s a rare, clean window. The period is still a nice 13 seconds, so it’ll be slow, clean, and lined up. It’s tiny, but it’s the only time the conditions are truly good. For a smaller-wave board, that afternoon session is the standout in the whole run.

After that, the swell picks up again, but the wind stays stubborn. Saturday the 1st of August has a 1.2m SW swell with a 16-second period, but it’s a moderate cross-shore. Sunday the 2nd of August has a bigger 1.6m swell with a 17-second period, but the wind is a strong cross-shore, making it lumpy. The same pattern continues right through the first week of August – plenty of SW groundswell energy, but the wind is always cross-on or cross, never clean. The 4th of August Tuesday afternoon shows a 1.8m SW swell with a moderate cross-on wind, just a marginal day.

The biggest swell of the whole run hits on Thursday the 6th of August, a 2.2m SW swell with a 19-second period and combined energy of 4445, which is incredibly powerful. But the wind is a fresh cross-on breeze. That’s a big, powerful, but messy day. If you’re an expert, you might still find a wave, but it’s not going to be pretty.

Honestly, the only real standout for clean, quality surf is that tiny, glassy window on the afternoon of Friday the 31st of July. Everything else is a battle with the wind. The rest of the period is a solid 16 days of onshore or cross-shore wind, just making a mess of some otherwise decent swell. It’s a tough run.

Rusty.

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