
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 14 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 3,482 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 14th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming up for Flynns Reef.
The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag for this spot. A big pulse of swell hits early, but the wind’s a mess. Eventually, things clean up, but it takes a while to get there. The water temp is 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.
We kick off on Tuesday the 14th with a solid 10ft SW groundswell, period at 15 seconds – that’s proper energy (4301). Problem is, the wind is screaming from the WSW at 31 mph, putting it directly onshore. The wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. This is one for the experts only, and even then, it’s gonna be a choppy, blown-out mess. That kind of size and period is clean only at reefs and points, but the wind just ruins it here.
Wednesday the 15th drops to 7ft SW, still with long 14-second intervals, but the wind swings NW at 16 mph, making it cross-onshore and choppy. Thursday the 16th is more of the same – 6ft SW, 15 seconds, but cross-onshore wind. It’s marginal. Friday the 17th looks a little better with a 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a lighter cross-shore breeze, but it’s still just okay, not a standout. The combined energy is still in the strong range though (1265).
Saturday the 18th afternoon is where we finally get a glimpse of something good. The swell drops to 4ft SW with 14-second intervals, and the wind goes light offshore from the ESE at 3 mph. The forecast calls for clean conditions. It’s a small wave day, but if you want a longboard or a fun board and a glassy surface, this is your window. The crowd situation here says “often,” so expect company.
Sunday the 19th through to Tuesday the 22nd is a flat spell. Swell drops under 3ft and the wind is poor – cross-shore and lumpy. The combined energy sinks to just 2-digit numbers in the low 200s. Not worth paddling out.
Now, here’s the real standout for the whole forecast. On Thursday the 23rd, a new SW groundswell arrives at 7ft with 15-second periods, energy reading 2010. The wind is cross-shore and moderate, so it’s still a little bumpy, but the power is there. Then Friday the 24th morning – this is it. The swell holds at 6ft from the SW, period at 15 seconds, and the wind turns offshore from the ESE at 9 mph. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a clean, lined-up reef break with proper energy (1295). It’s still in the advanced range for size, but if you’re competent, this is the session to aim for. The offshore breeze will groom it nicely.
Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th continue with 6ft to 5ft SW swells and offshore or cross-offshore winds, keeping things clean. The energy stays solid in the 3-digit range. Monday the 27th has a late burst, with 6ft WSW swell and light cross-offshore wind, but after that, it fades fast.
Forget the final days of the 28th and 29th – small, onshore, chopped-up. Not worth your time.
If I had to pick one day to mark on the calendar, it’s Friday the 24th morning. Clean offshore wind, solid 6ft SW groundswell, and that reef line-up handling the long 15-second period. It’s a gem in a forecast that’s mostly just okay.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tue 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
4301 | 2783 | 1594 | 1423 | 1255 | 1460 | 1480 | 1138 | 1265 | 1529 | 1216 | 886 | 526 | 374 | 221 | 141 | 111 | 306 | 141 | 251 | 331 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | on | cross | cross | off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross |
High Tide | 10:27PM2.11m | 12:10PM2.35m | 11:40PM2.14m | 1:06PM2.42m | 00:49AM2.19m | 1:57PM2.48m | 1:54AM2.24m | 2:43PM2.51m | 2:53AM2.27m | 3:26PM2.51m | 3:48AM2.27m | 4:06PM2.48m | 4:39AM2.24m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:56PM1.04m | 5:14AM0.06m | 6:05PM0.94m | 6:18AM0.05m | 7:07PM0.79m | 7:18AM0.08m | 8:04PM0.62m | 8:13AM0.14m | 8:55PM0.46m | 9:04AM0.25m | 9:43PM0.34m | 9:51AM0.38m | 10:28PM0.27m | 10:36AM0.53m | |||||||
— | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | |
5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | 5:21 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 14 |
Feels °C | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
— | 2783 | 1594 | 1423 | 1255 | 1460 | 1480 | 1138 | 1265 | 1529 | 1216 | 886 | 526 | 374 | 221 | 141 | 89 | 306 | 141 | 251 | 331 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 12 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 12 | SW 14 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 58 | 17 | 60 | 111 | 10 | 36 | 211 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 20 | SSW 11 | — | S 10 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 37 | 23 | — | 8 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 |
4301 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 469 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











