Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,441 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this 16-day window for Flynns Reef is a real mixed bag. We’ve got a lot of wind and messy conditions to wade through before we see any real quality. Water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first week is a write-off, to be honest. From Tuesday the 21st right through to Monday the 27th, we’ve got a solid run of poor surf conditions. The wind is howling from the northwest and west, mostly cross or onshore, and it’s dirty. Swell is there, ranging from 4ft to a massive 12ft, but with the wind and chop, it’s just not worth paddling out. The combined wave energy gets up to some serious numbers (8896) on the 24th, but it’s all onshore slop. Strong breeze and near gale conditions make it a kitesurfer’s dream, not a surfer’s.
Then we finally get a bit of a break. Tuesday the 28th sees a big drop in wind speed, but the swell is still 10ft from the SW with a 15-second period. The morning is cross-shore, but it’s only marginal. Wednesday the 29th morning is the standout of the whole run. Flynns Reef is a reef break, so it handles that long-period groundswell well. We’ve got 7ft of SW swell, 15-second period, and light SSE cross-offshore wind. It’s clean. The combined energy is 1647, so there’s plenty of push. This is the one for experienced surfers only—it’s too big for beginners. Crowds are often a thing here, and with the quality on offer, expect company.
Thursday the 30th morning is still decent, with 5ft of SW swell and light north wind, cross-offshore. Clean again, but the energy is dropping (920). After that, things taper off quickly. By Friday the 31st and into August, the swell drops to under 4ft, and while the wind stays light, the waves are just ordinary. Saturday the 1st of August is clean but small, at 3ft. Sunday the 2nd brings offshore winds, but the swell is a tiny 1ft, just not worth it.
So, the only real window is Wednesday the 29th morning. It’s a proper reef setup with a clean, powerful swell. If you’re an advanced surfer and you can get there, that’s the session. Everything else is blown out, too small, or just plain messy.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Tue afternoon, near gales from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, moderate winds from the W by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 573 | 444 | 260 | 319 | 554 | 898 | 2247 | 2747 | 4301 | 5441 | 4313 | 1875 | 1550 | 1249 | 840 | 519 | 315 | 263 | 568 | 1659 | 2484 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:44PM2.40m | 5:28AM2.18m | 5:21PM2.31m | 6:15AM2.11m | 5:57PM2.20m | 7:02AM2.04m | 6:33PM2.09m | 7:51AM1.98m | 7:12PM1.98m | 8:46AM1.93m | 7:57PM1.89m | 9:46AM1.91m | 8:51PM1.82m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:36AM0.53m | 11:11PM0.26m | 11:19AM0.68m | 11:52PM0.29m | 12:01PM0.83m | 00:32AM0.34m | 12:44PM0.96m | 1:13AM0.41m | 1:30PM1.07m | 1:58AM0.47m | 2:23PM1.16m | 2:49AM0.52m | 3:25PM1.22m | 3:45AM0.55m | |||||||
 | |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | |  | | | |  | |
 | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 18 | — | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | — |
| kJ | 573 | 444 | 260 | 319 | 285 | 79 | — | 32 | 313 | 3455 | 2372 | 1875 | — | — | 840 | 519 | 315 | 263 | 568 | 1659 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | E 10 | NW 4 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 2 | 5 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | E 10 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 2 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WNW 4 | SW 12 | SW 12 | — | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 554 | 898 | 2247 | 2747 | 4301 | 5441 | 4313 | 28 | 1550 | 1249 | — | 8 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 79 | 2484 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 2 | 32 | 69 | 73 | 69 | 73 | 516 | 469 | 70 | 451 | 70 | 73 | 84 | 69 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 70 | 73 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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