Flynns Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next 16 days for Flynns Reef. It’s a reef break, so we’re talking about a proper wave that needs the right conditions, and it’s for advanced surfers only. We’ve got some serious water moving around, but we have to pick our moments.

For the first week, it’s a tough slog. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross or cross-on, and the combined energy is all over the map. We start with a moderate 1690 (moderate wave energy) on Sunday the 6th, but it’s a cross-on 15 mph breeze, so the 7 ft SW swell is going to be a choppy, lumpy mess. Not worth paddling out. Monday and Tuesday stay poor with fresh breezes, though on Tuesday morning the 8th, the wind goes offshore at 15 mph, and the swell is a 4 ft SW groundswell with a 13-second period. The energy is moderate (1130), but the report says marginal, so it’s a maybe, not a yes.

The middle of the week gets wild. Wednesday the 9th sees a big 10 ft SW swell with a 16-second period, and the energy hits 4494 (strong). But the wind is screaming at 35 to 40 mph cross-on, making it a total mess. Thursday and Friday aren’t much better; the swell is still there, but the wind is too strong. The water is at 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

Now, look here. The standout is Saturday the 12th. Absolutely. The wind swings to a light 10 mph cross-off from the NNE in the morning, and the swell is a clean 6 ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is 1800 (moderate). The report calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one. The long period will make the reef link up beautifully, and with the wind cleaning it up, it’s going to be a proper session. The crowd situation is “often,” so expect a few other boats out there, but it’s worth it.

After that, the wind goes bad again. Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are blown out, with Monday bringing a near gale. There’s a gap of poor conditions until we get to another potential window.

Tuesday the 15th afternoon is a real secret. The wind goes glassy from the NNE, just 5 mph, and the swell is a solid 8 ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The energy is 2668 (strong). The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The waves will be big, clean, and offering plenty of power. For a reef break, that’s a dream. But it’s a long way out, so we need to keep an eye on it.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag. The wind is mostly onshore or cross, and the swell is either too big or too small. Thursday the 17th has a promising 5 ft SW swell with an 18-second period and a light offshore wind, but the report says marginal. The potential is there for a clean, lined-up wave, but it’s a gamble. The 21st of September sees a monster 12 ft SW swell with a 17-second period, but the energy is 6788 (very strong). The report says it’s too big for the break, so unless you’re towing in, that’s a no-go.

The best of the best is the Saturday the 12th and Tuesday the 15th. The Saturday is the pick of the week for reliability, with the cleanest conditions and a solid swell. It’s a proper session for the advanced crew.

Rusty.

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