
Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 12 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, WSW swell with 4,762 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 10 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Monday (Aug 10) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking for Flynns Reef over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first few days are a bit of a write-off. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross-onshore and fresh, and while there’s some decent energy in the water (combined swell energy around 422), it’s just messy. We are looking at a gap of about 5 days before things start to turn.
Sunday the 11th and Monday the 12th are the same story – solid swell building, especially Monday with a big 5ft SW groundswell and some serious energy readings (1860 and 1658), but that wind is just going to ruin it. Those days are for the kite crew, not for paddling. The water temp is sitting at about 56°, which is pretty normal for this time of year – nothing to worry about there.
The first real window opens up on Saturday the 15th. The morning is looking promising at Flynns Reef. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell with a long 15-second period. The wind is a light SSE cross-off, keeping the surface clean. The combined energy is a healthy 1344, so there’s plenty of push. This is for experienced surfers though – that’s a meaty wave. Keep in mind, this break is a consistent reef, so expect it to be a bit of a paddle, but it’ll be worth it. Crowds are likely here.
Sunday the 16th morning is another good call. The swell drops a touch to 4ft from the SW, but the wind goes light offshore from the east. That means glassy, clean lines. The energy is still moderate at 716. This is a solid option for a Sunday session.
After that, we have a few days of smaller, cleaner conditions with light wind, but nothing that screams “drop everything.” The swell hangs around the 3ft to 4ft mark.
Now, here’s the long-range stand-out. If you can wait, look at Sunday the 23rd of August. The morning is showing a glassy surface with a 5ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is pumping at 1874. This is an excellent, clean, powerful swell for experienced surfers. The period is long enough to make paddling out easier between sets, and a long-period SW swell on a reef like Flynns will produce some proper, well-shaped walls. Just remember, it’s over a week away, so keep an eye on it – the long-range outlook is promising but less certain.
So, to wrap it up: the best on offer is hands down the morning of Saturday the 15th for a bigger, clean wave, and the long-range standout is the morning of Sunday the 23rd of August for what could be an absolute dream session at Flynns Reef.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun night, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Sun night, strong winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Wed morning, light winds from the SW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
371 | 250 | 480 | 1713 | 1597 | 2668 | 528 | 506 | 822 | 1381 | 2438 | 3881 | 2093 | 1784 | 1808 | 1907 | 1907 | 1610 | 1344 | 1108 | 911 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:49PM2.20m | 8:25AM2.16m | 7:46PM2.14m | 9:34AM2.14m | 8:56PM2.08m | 10:44AM2.16m | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | 1:33PM2.37m | 1:48AM2.24m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:05PM0.96m | 1:36AM0.14m | 2:06PM1.04m | 2:39AM0.18m | 3:18PM1.08m | 3:48AM0.22m | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | 7:05AM0.30m | 7:45PM0.51m | ||||||||
7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | |
— | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | |
mm | 4 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 5 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SSW 18 | — | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
371 | 250 | 480 | 1713 | 61 | — | 169 | 506 | 822 | 1381 | 2438 | 2247 | 2093 | 1784 | 1808 | 1907 | 1907 | 1610 | 1344 | 1108 | 911 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 20 | ESE 8 | SE 10 | — | SW 14 | SW 7 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
51 | 109 | 404 | 28 | 24 | — | 528 | 75 | 482 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | ESE 6 | SSW 19 | — | — | — | — | WSW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 13 | 142 | — | — | — | — | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 3 | E 2 | N 4 | NW 3 | SW 17 | SW 16 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | WNW 4 | — | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1597 | 2668 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 30 | — | 3881 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 14 | 18 | 0 | 61 | 314 | 70 | 69 | 61 | 258 | 73 | 10 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 101 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











