Surf Forecasts:
Flynns Reef surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,531 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Flynns Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Flynns Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Flynns Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
We’ve got a solid, classic SW groundswell in the water for the next few days, but the wind is gonna be a real battle. The start of the week is a write-off for paddle surfing, so we’re looking at a slow build to a couple of decent windows later on. The water temp is sitting right around 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The main event is Flynns Reef (reef). This is an advanced-level break, and it’s a consistent spot that’s fairly exposed to the swell. It likes the swell from the SW. The first real chance to get a clean one is on Sunday, the 16th of August. The morning looks best: a clean 5 ft of swell from the SW with a long 14-second period, and a light offshore from the NE. The combined energy is moderate at 815, but it’ll feel like a proper groundswell. The lineup could be a bit crowded, so expect some company. Sunday afternoon drops off a bit with a cross-shore wind, but it’s still rideable.
Monday morning, the 17th, is another good shout. The swell is a bit smaller at 4 ft, but it’s clean with a gentle offshore wind from the ENE. The period is still a solid 14 seconds, so there’s shape and push. The energy is light but workable. After that, the swell fades fast.
We hit a big gap after Tuesday the 18th. From Wednesday the 19th through to the 27th, the surf is real small and the wind is mostly onshore, strong, or just plain messy. There’s a pulse of bigger swell around the 22nd and 23rd, but with the wind cranking from the N and WSW, it’s going to be blown out. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. The end of the 16-day window on the 27th has a tiny glimmer with a 5 ft swell and light wind, but it’s marginal.
So, the standout moments are definitely the Sunday morning (16th) and Monday morning (17th) sessions at Flynns Reef. The first one is the pick of the bunch. The rest is a long, quiet stretch with a big stormy blast in the middle. It’s a waiting game after that.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Wed morning, light winds from the S by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1832 | 2475 | 3233 | 3039 | 2668 | 2634 | 2295 | 2266 | 1958 | 1610 | 1363 | 1011 | 813 | 726 | 623 | 573 | 803 | 705 | 528 | 459 | 322 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | off | cross-off | cross | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:44AM2.16m | 10:15PM2.05m | 11:48AM2.22m | 11:34PM2.09m | 12:44PM2.30m | 00:45AM2.16m | 1:33PM2.37m | 1:48AM2.24m | 2:17PM2.42m | 2:42AM2.31m | 2:58PM2.43m | 3:32AM2.33m | 3:35PM2.41m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:36PM1.02m | 4:59AM0.25m | 5:48PM0.89m | 6:05AM0.27m | 6:51PM0.70m | 7:05AM0.30m | 7:45PM0.51m | 7:59AM0.34m | 8:33PM0.35m | 8:47AM0.41m | 9:17PM0.24m | 9:31AM0.49m | 9:58PM0.19m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — |
 | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — |
mm | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 16 | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
| kJ | — | 2475 | — | 3039 | 2668 | 2634 | 2295 | 2266 | 1958 | 1610 | 1363 | 1011 | 813 | 726 | 623 | 573 | 803 | 705 | 528 | 459 | 322 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | — | — | SE 4 | SSE 4 | — | SW 18 | — | SE 4 |
| kJ | — | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 118 | — | 3 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 9 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | SE 5 | — | SE 6 | — |
| kJ | 1832 | 757 | 3233 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 18 | 10 | 5 | — | 8 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 73 | 4 | 70 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Phillip Island | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Flynns Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Flynns Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Flynns Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Flynns Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Flynns Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Flynns Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Flynns Reef is 32 km (20 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Phillip Island, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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