Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got one spot on the radar for the next 16 days, and it’s a classic case of “looks good on paper, but the ocean’s having a laugh.”

The whole period is dominated by a long-running, powerful SW groundswell, but the wind is almost always working against us. The water is sitting at 67.5°F, which is a solid 4.1°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a real treat, a proper tropical feel in the water. The combined wave energy at the start is massive, hitting 7956 on Thursday morning, but it’s all cross-on and onshore, making it a total mess.

Thursday 6th and Friday 7th are write-offs. The swell is a solid 13.1ft from the WSW, but with a fresh to strong breeze ruining it, it’s just lumpy, choppy, and blown out.

Saturday 8th sees the swell jump to 21.3ft from the SW. The energy readings are wild – 19157 in the morning and 23399 in the afternoon. That’s a heap of water moving, but the wind is a near gale. It’s too big for this break anyway, and the wind just makes it a kite-surfing circus. Not for paddling.

The same story runs through Sunday 9th, Monday 10th, and Tuesday 11th. The swell keeps pumping, with a peak of 24.6ft on Tuesday morning and energy hitting 58679 – that’s a serious amount of power. But the wind is gale-force or near-gale, cross-onshore, and completely blown out. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not fun.

Wednesday 12th and Thursday 13th are still messy. The swell drops a bit to 13.1-16.4ft, but the wind is still onshore or cross-onshore. Just marginal, choppy conditions.

The standout – and it’s the only real window of opportunity – is Friday 14th August. This is the day. The swell is still a solid 9.8-11.5ft from the SW, with a nice long 16-second period, so it’s proper groundswell. The wind goes glassy – a 5 mph breeze from the north and east-northeast. That’s about as clean as it gets. The break is a reef, so that long period will wrap in nicely. The water is still warm. Friday morning has exceptional conditions for experts, and the afternoon is excellent for experienced surfers. Get on it.

After that, Saturday 15th is a step down – cross-shore wind and smaller swell, just marginal. Sunday 16th through Wednesday 19th is back to a messy pattern with strong winds and poor surf. The swell sticks around 14.8-16.4ft from the WSW, but it’s onshore and ugly.

The very end of the run, on Friday 21st August, shows a glimmer of hope. The swell is back to 16.4ft from the WSW, and the wind is a light 10-15 mph cross-on. It’s a marginal forecast, but it’s not blown out. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it might clean up for a late session.

Bottom line: If you’re surfing Big Rock, you’re waiting for Friday 14th August. That’s the gold. Everything else is either a washing machine or too big and windy.

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