Big Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it, just you and me and the ocean.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a solid run of surf coming, but it’s not for the faint of heart. This is a big swell period, and we’re looking at one spot that’s going to be the main character for the whole 16 days: Big Rock.

The water here is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus.

The action kicks off on Tuesday, 28 July. The morning is your best bet. We’ve got a clean 10ft SW swell (long period, 14 seconds) and a light ESE breeze blowing offshore. The combined energy is pumping at 3549, moderate to strong, and the conditions are going to be clean. This is proper reef-break territory, so the long period works in your favour here. It’s a solid intermediate wave, but that 10ft is getting into the size where beginners should be watching from the rocks. The afternoon gets a bit glassy with a light SSW cross-on that’ll put a tiny ripple on the face, but it’s still surfable.

Wednesday, 29 July and Thursday, 30 July keep the SW swell in the 6ft to 8ft range, with clean conditions thanks to a cross-off breeze from the NE and NNE. The energy drops a bit, but it’s still good, solid, surfer-quality waves. The crowd situation here is “sometimes,” so you might have a few friends out, but nothing insane.

Now, Friday, 31 July is a write-off. The wind swings onshore, strong, and the swell is messy. Do yourself a favour and don’t bother.

The real standout, the one you’re going to want to circle, is Saturday, 1 August. The morning is clean, but the afternoon is where the magic happens. We’re looking at a 13ft SW swell (14 seconds) with a light ESE offshore breeze. The combined energy is massive at 7429. This is expert territory, no doubt. The waves are going to be big, powerful, and clean. If you’ve got the skills, this is the session of the forecast period.

Sunday, 2 August and Monday, 3 August are still good, with the swell dropping to 7ft – 8ft, and clean cross-off winds. The energy is moderate, making for a fun, manageable day.

Things get messy again from Tuesday, 4 August through Thursday, 6 August with onshore winds and choppy, lumpy conditions. Not worth the paddle out.

Friday, 7 August and then into the second week, the swell just gets monstrous. We’re talking 18ft to 23ft swells. The combined energy is off the charts (over 46000 at one point). The wind is mostly cross-on or cross-shore, but honestly, the size is the problem. Even with light winds, this is too big for even most experts. The guidance says it’s just too big for the break. This is more of a spectacle than a surf session.

There’s a brief window on Monday, 10 August, where the wind goes light and cross-off, and the swell is still massive at 21ft. The energy is huge (14748). It’s clean, but it’s a big-wave day only. The same goes for Tuesday, 11 August and Wednesday, 12 August – just colossal, clean, but completely unmanageable for paddle surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is the Saturday, 1 August afternoon session at Big Rock. That’s the one. The rest of the first week has some solid, cleaner days, but the second week is just a head-on collision with a freight train of swell. Bring your camera, not your board.

Rusty.

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