Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into what’s on the table for Lyall Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, we’re not looking at a classic run. The forecast starts on Saturday, July 11th, with a bit of a dud – a 3 ft SSW swell but the wind is howling from the south making it a complete mess. You wouldn’t bother paddling out. The water temp is sitting at 54°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

The first real window to get excited about comes early on Sunday, July 12th. It’s not huge, but that 3 ft SSW swell has a proper 12-second period, and the wind swings to a light north-northeast, giving us a clean cross-off breeze. The combined energy is moderate (284), and the conditions are set to be good. For a Sunday morning session, that’s your best bet early on. The afternoon stays okay with a 3 ft SSW swell, 11-second period, and a clean offshore north wind, but it’s a bit ordinary.

We then hit a dry patch. Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 15th of July is a write-off – tiny, windy, or both. The wave energy drops to single digits and low double digits (19 to 38), and you’re fighting 25 mph winds for nothing. Thursday the 16th afternoon has a moment at 1 ft with glassy conditions, but it’s honestly just a knee-high dribbler.

Friday the 17th of July offers a bit more size, with a 2-3 ft ESE swell and a very long 16-second period. The wind is a fresh offshore from the north, keeping things clean. The combined energy is strong (351 to 409), so there’s push in the water. That long period means it might be a bit straight at the beach, but it’ll be clean, and the sets will have time between them.

Now, the standout – and I mean the real standout – is Saturday, July 18th. A massive 13 ft south swell rolls in, but the wind is onshore from the south at 22 mph. The energy is absolutely pumping (2409 to 3650), but it’s going to be a messy, blown-out beast. This is NOT for paddle surfing. If you’re into kite surfing, this is your window. For the rest of us, it’s a look-and-wonder situation.

The next day, Sunday, July 19th, is the one for the experts. The swell drops to 7-8 ft from the south, with a 14-second period and a strong offshore north wind. The energy is still very strong (1736 to 2401). That’s big, powerful, and clean, but it’s over 8 ft, so only the experienced crew should be out there. It’s a proper groundswell, so watch for it to be a bit straight at the beach – better if you can find a peak.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st of July see the swell back down to a more manageable 4-6 ft, but the wind is a bit tricky. The Tuesday afternoon session on the 21st is a sneaky good one: the swell is 4 ft from the south, 10-second period, and it’s completely glassy with no wind. The energy is moderate (628), and it’s the cleanest setup of the second week. That’s the one to circle.

The rest of the run from Wednesday the 22nd onward fades out. We get a few small, clean sessions with offshore winds, but the swell is tiny (1 ft to 3 ft) and the energy drops off. By the weekend of the 25th and 26th, it’s just a dribble with strong winds and no real punch.

So, in a nutshell: the best of the best is the Sunday, July 12th morning session for a clean, fun-sized wave, and the Tuesday, July 21st afternoon for a glassy, moderate swell. The big stuff on the 18th and 19th is for kiters and experts only.

Rusty.

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