Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie mate, Rusty here. Let's break down the next couple of weeks for our local patch.

Honestly, it’s a bit of a rough start. The wind is going to be a real problem for the first week with gale-force breezes, making things pretty nasty. There’s a small window of real promise, but you gotta be patient and pick your moments. The main event looks like it’ll be the massive pulse of swell arriving around the end of the month and into the first week of September, but the wind is a fickle beast.

Lyall Bay: The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is pretty standard for this time of year. The first chunk of the outlook is a write-off. Friday the 28th of August through to Sunday the 30th is a no-go. You’ve got howling offshore winds – let me tell you, a 28 mph wind is not "offshore" for surfing, it’s terrifying. The swell is tiny and weak, with combined energy only hitting 96 on Sunday morning. Don’t even bother.

Now, here’s the catch. Look at the morning of Monday the 31st of August. The forecast is for a solid 10ft south swell with a 12-second period and a gentle offshore breeze. The energy is massive at 3006. But here’s the thing – Lyall Bay is not the spot for that. That is a serious, expert-only size. For anyone who isn’t charging, it’s way too big. It will be a washing machine. The wind absolutely nukes it from the NW later that Monday afternoon, so it’s a one-shot deal.

Tuesday the 1st of September is messy with onshore southerly wind. Wednesday the 2nd has a clean 6ft swell in the morning with a fresh offshore, but the combined energy is only 907 and the forecast is marginal. It's a maybe.

After that, we drop off into tiny, weak surf for days. Thursday the 3rd through to Monday the 8th of September is all below 3ft with strong to near-gale winds. It’s a long, flat spell.

Then, out of nowhere, the model is screaming about Tuesday the 8th of September. We’re looking at a massive 18ft swell from the SSW. The combined energy is a monstrous 5846. Again, for Lyall Bay, that is simply too big and dangerous. It’s not for paddling, it’s for towing and jet skis if anything. The wind is strong cross-offshore, so the surface would be textured chaos.

The only true standout in this entire 16-day window comes much later. Saturday the 12th of September. The morning looks absolutely perfect. We’ve got a 4ft south swell with a 12-second period, combined energy of 507 – a nice, manageable size. But the best part is the wind: it's forecast to be glassy. A 3 mph southeasterly. That’s it. The wave state is described as "glassy". For a break like Lyall Bay, which is pretty exposed and can get chopped up, that is the gold standard. The afternoon stays clean with light cross-offshore winds. This is your best bet for the whole period. Saturday the 12th of September morning, get out there and soak up that smooth, clean energy.

So, to sum it up: the whole first week is blown out or too big. There’s a tiny, marginal window on the 2nd. The big swells on the 31st and 8th are for experts only. The clear winner, the one to actually get excited about, is Saturday the 12th of September.

Rusty.

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