Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Lyall Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Okay, first things first – the next few days are pretty grim, I gotta be honest. We’ve got a big gap of poor conditions right at the start. Wednesday and Thursday morning are a write-off with strong onshore winds and messy, blown-out surf. The water temperature is sitting at 55°F, which is just about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real glimmer of hope comes through on Thursday the 6th. Thursday morning we’re looking at clean conditions with glassy, light wind from the WSW, and a 6ft swell from the SSE, with a moderate 10-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 919, so there’s some push behind it. By Thursday afternoon, the wind swings light offshore from the NNW, and the swell drops a touch to 5ft but it’s clean and lined up. This is the standout window for the first week – it’s not huge, but it’s rideable and will be fun on a longboard or a fish.

After that, Friday through to the middle of next week is a mixed bag of onshore winds, strong breezes, and dropping swell. From Friday the 7th through to Sunday the 10th, the wind is mostly cross-off or fresh offshore, but the swell is inconsistent and dropping. The combined energy drops from 1319 down to 126, so it’s weakening fast. There’s a brief window on Tuesday the 11th with a moderate offshore breeze and a 3ft swell from the SSE, but it’s pretty ordinary – more of a cruise than a session to write home about.

Then we hit a real blank spell from about Wednesday the 12th through to Sunday the 16th. The swell is tiny – 2ft down to 1.0ft – and the wind is mostly onshore or strong offshore. The combined energy is in the double digits or low triple digits, which is weak. The period is short too, 8 seconds or less, so it’s just not gonna hold up. This is a dead stretch.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Monday the 17th of August, the forecast shows a massive pulse of swell hitting – 18ft to 20ft from the south with a 12-second period. The combined energy is through the roof at 8300 to 10192 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. The wind is offshore and light, so conditions will be clean. But I gotta be straight with you – this is way too big for Lyall Bay. It’s over 8ft, so it’s for experts only, and even then, the beach break setup is gonna be a churning, heavy mess. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. A south swell that size will break straight and fast, and paddling out will be a mission.

Tuesday the 18th sees a drop back to 12ft to 10ft, still too big for most, but the wind is glassy and light in the morning, so if you’re a seasoned charger and know the rip, you might find a couple. Again, the combined energy is 2816 to 2085 – still strong.

Finally, Wednesday the 19th afternoon and Thursday the 20th bring us back to more manageable sizes. Wednesday afternoon sees a 6ft SSE swell with a 11-second period, light cross-off wind, and clean conditions. The combined energy is 784 – moderate, but it’ll be a good session. Thursday the 20th has a 5ft SE swell in the morning with glassy conditions, and it’s looking good for a solid session. The afternoon holds 4ft with a moderate offshore wind.

So, the real standout for the whole period is Thursday the 6th – that morning glass-off with a clean 6ft SSE swell. If you can get out, that’s your best bet. The second standout is the Thursday the 20th morning with the glassy conditions and 5ft swell. Everything else is either too big, too small, too windy, or just plain flat.

Stay safe out there, and don’t even think about that 20ft day unless you’ve got a death wish.

Rusty.

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