
Surf Forecasts:
Lyall Bay surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 21 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 11s period, SSW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 11s period, S swell with 4,148 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 18 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 13s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lyall Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lyall Bay in the next 16 days are 4.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day folks, Rusty here. Looking at the 16-day window for Lyall Bay, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a mixed bag with a couple of windows that’ll get the heart rate up, but plenty of flat, blown-out days in between. The water’s sitting around 56°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing crazy.
We start off with a bit of a dud. The 16th and 17th are rough – tiny swell around 1 to 2ft, and while the wind is offshore, it’s howling from the NNW at 22 to 28 mph. There’s just no power in the water. The 18th is a tease – the swell bumps up to around 3ft from the SE with a 13-second period, and it goes glassy. It’s clean, but it’s small. You’ll get ankle-biters, nothing to write home about.
Then things start to move. The 19th sees the swell push to around 3ft from the SSW, with a 15-second period. The morning is looking alright with a moderate offshore wind from the N at 12 mph. That’s your first real chance to get a few fun ones. The energy is moderate (600), and it’s clean. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy with the cross-off breeze picking up, though.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The 20th and into the 21st, the swell jumps big – we’re talking 8 to 11ft from the S. But hold on, the 20th has onshore winds whipping at 22 to 25 mph. It’s going to be a messy, raw ocean. Not surfable for most. The 21st, the swell is still huge at around 10ft from the S with a long 11-second period, but the wind turns offshore from the N. The energy is strong (2170). This is pumping, but it’s also critical. This is expert territory only. Too big for beginners, and even for most regulars, that kind of size at Lyall Bay is a serious undertaking. The afternoon drops to around 7ft, but it’s still pretty full-on.
We then hit a rough patch. From the 22nd to the 24th, the wind is onshore, mostly from the S and SSE. The swell is all over the place, with short periods (5-8 seconds) and choppy conditions. It’s a mess. Then the 25th shows some promise – the swell settles to around 4ft from the S with a 9-second period, and the wind goes offshore again from the N at 15 mph. It’s clean, but the period is a bit short, so it’ll be a bit crumbly. Marginal at best.
The 26th is poor, the 27th is poor with onshore winds. It’s a real run of bad luck.
But then, the standouts. The 29th – oh boy. The morning is still rough with a strong cross-off breeze, but the afternoon? The wind dies to nearly nothing, just a slight air from the WNW. The swell is around 6ft from the S with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 805. It’s glassy, clean, and there’s some proper push to it. That’s your best session of the whole window. The 28th morning also looks decent – around 8ft from the S with a 13-second period and offshore N winds, but it’s a bit bigger and the morning is labelled as marginal. Still, it's worth a paddle.
After that, we fade out. The 30th is onshore and poor. The 1st of October sees tiny 2ft waves with a strong NNW cross-off breeze, which is essentially flat.
So, the call is this: your best chances are the morning of the 19th for a fun, medium-sized session, and the standout is the afternoon of the 29th. It’s glassy, clean, and has some real power behind it. The 21st is for the hardcore experts only, and even then, it’s a beast. Don’t bother with the rest, too much wind and too little swell.
Alright, that’s the picture. Stay safe out there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NNW on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SSW on Sat night, light winds from the S by Sun night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SE 10 | SSW 14 | SE 10 | SSW 7 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 8 | S 9 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 8 | S 5 | S 8 | S 7 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
43 | 27 | 41 | 35 | 261 | 162 | 142 | 167 | 474 | 351 | 195 | 1298 | 1112 | 4146 | 2077 | 770 | 201 | 147 | 585 | 205 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | on | glassy | glassy | on | off | cross-off | cross-off | on | on | on | off | off | off | on | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:11PM1.58m | 9:31AM1.63m | 9:57PM1.57m | 10:16AM1.61m | 10:39PM1.55m | 11:00AM1.58m | 11:20PM1.52m | 11:43AM1.56m | 00:00AM1.49m | 12:25PM1.54m | 00:42AM1.46m | 1:06PM1.53m | 1:26AM1.44m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:10PM0.66m | 3:22AM0.70m | 3:59PM0.68m | 4:08AM0.72m | 4:45PM0.68m | 4:51AM0.72m | 5:28PM0.67m | 5:31AM0.72m | 6:07PM0.67m | 6:09AM0.71m | 6:46PM0.66m | 6:46AM0.70m | 7:23PM0.67m | |||||||
— | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | |
6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:15 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 5 | 14 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Feels °C | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | S 6 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | ESE 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 8 | NW 5 | SE 12 | S 7 |
43 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 75 | 142 | 147 | 474 | 351 | 195 | 58 | 30 | 11 | 2077 | 770 | 201 | 6 | 23 | 205 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | NW 8 | SE 13 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SE 12 | SE 11 | ESE 11 | NW 7 | SSW 15 | — | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | ESE 10 | SE 13 | SSW 15 | SSW 16 |
12 | 18 | 41 | 35 | 16 | 162 | 47 | 167 | 112 | 99 | 82 | 8 | 42 | — | 66 | 53 | 10 | 27 | 43 | 81 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | S 8 | S 8 | SE 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 16 | SSW 10 | N 8 | SE 5 | SE 6 | SW 18 | NW 7 | NW 8 | — | SE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 13 | NW 8 | SW 12 | SE 12 |
17 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 48 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 2 | — | 27 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 35 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 6 | NW 6 | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | SSW 7 | — | SSE 6 | SSE 4 | — | NNW 5 | NW 6 | SSW 8 | S 9 | S 11 | — | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | S 5 | S 8 | — |
426 | 224 | 129 | 58 | 261 | — | 45 | 24 | — | 74 | 258 | 1298 | 1112 | 4146 | — | 29 | 31 | 147 | 585 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 108 | 64 | 54 | 54 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 0 | 54 | 63 | 116 | 295 | 88 | 1 | 38 | 38 | 59 | 88 | 3 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Wellington | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lyall Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lyall Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lyall Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lyall Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lyall Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lyall Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lyall Bay is 6 km (4 miles) from the city of Wellington. If you plan a holiday in Wellington, look for hotels and other accommodation in Wellington. Wellington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










