
Surf Forecasts:
Lyall Bay surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period, ESE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, SSW swell with 1,251 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 13s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lyall Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lyall Bay in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 30) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Sat 25th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, grab a coffee and settle in, because I’m gonna walk you through what’s shaping up for Lyall Bay over the next couple of weeks. I’m Rusty, and I’m calling it straight.
First thing you need to know: Lyall Bay is a pretty exposed beach break, and it gets a lot of wind. The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.
Alright, let’s start from the beginning of this forecast. To be honest, the first week is a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 25th of July is a no-go – we’ve got a tiny 0.7 ft swell with a light rain and a southerly wind messing it up, and then it jumps to a big, messy 10 ft on the afternoon with a strong southerly gale. Just poor conditions all round. Sunday the 26th has some size (5 ft) but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s chopped and lumpy. Monday and Tuesday mornings are also pretty ordinary, with onshore winds and small bumpy surf.
Then, finally, on Tuesday the 28th of July, we get a window. Tuesday morning is looking like the standout of this whole outlook. The swell is coming from the ESE at 3 ft, but the period is a healthy 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The real kicker is the wind: glassy. Absolutely flat calm, light NNE breeze. That means clean, smooth faces. The combined wave energy is moderate (468), and the conditions are rated as good. It won’t be huge, but for a Tuesday morning session, it’s going to be a dream.
Tuesday afternoon gets even better in terms of wave quality, with the swell building to 4 ft from the ESE, a very long 14-second period, and light offshore winds from the NNW. This is the peak of the run. Clean, lined-up sets. The wave energy is building to strong (679). If you can only get out once in this whole 16-day window, make it Tuesday the 28th.
Wednesday the 29th still has decent surf with 3 ft to 3 ft ESE swell, but the wind picks up hard from the north, 19 to 25 mph. It’s offshore, so it’s clean, but it’s strong offshore, making it hard to paddle into and hold your position. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are a total drop-off; the swell gets tiny (1 ft to 2 ft) and the wind is howling from the northwest. Not worth paddling out.
The first week of August is a rough one. On the 1st (Saturday) it’s small and cross-onshore. On the 2nd (Sunday) there’s a bit of a bump from the SSW with a 15-second period (3 ft), but the wind is onshore. Then from Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th, we get hammered. The swell spikes up to 12 ft, but it’s accompanied by near-gale force southerly winds. The combined wave energy gets up to 3175 on the 5th – that’s very strong energy – but it’s all wind-affected, blown-out chaos. This is not for paddling; it’s a kite-surfing setup if anything.
Friday the 7th of August is still big (8 ft) with 14-second period, but cross-onshore winds make it lumpy.
Now, for the second week, we finally get another proper window. Saturday the 8th of August is looking promising. The swell drops to a manageable 4 ft from the SSE, with a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind from the north. The conditions are clean, and the wave energy is moderate (575). This is your second call. It won’t be as magic as the glassy Tuesday, but it will be fun, clean, and shoulder-high.
Sunday the 9th has 4 ft swell but then the wind cranks up hard again from the north (22 to 25 mph), making it hard work despite being offshore.
So, to sum it up: this is a patchy forecast for Lyall Bay. The first week is mostly poor, but don’t miss Tuesday the 28th of July. That’s the one. Saturday the 8th of August is the second-best call, but treat it as a long-range hopeful. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or blown out. The bay can get pretty busy at these times, so expect some company.
Stay safe out there.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 10°C on Sat morning, min 7°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Sat morning, calm by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed night, min 7°C on Tue morning). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, strong winds from the NNW by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | SSW 7 | S 8 | S 8 | S 7 | ESE 13 | S 7 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | SE 16 | SE 15 | S 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 686 | 902 | 282 | 178 | 118 | 195 | 145 | 227 | 263 | 621 | 427 | 326 | 224 | 167 | 113 | 77 | 41 | 40 | 78 | 441 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | on | glassy | glassy | off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 1:44PM1.61m | 2:04AM1.51m | 2:26PM1.60m | 2:50AM1.48m | 3:07PM1.58m | 3:35AM1.45m | 3:48PM1.55m | 4:20AM1.43m | 4:31PM1.53m | 5:05AM1.41m | 5:16PM1.51m | 5:52AM1.41m | 6:04PM1.50m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:03PM0.73m | 8:06AM0.76m | 8:47PM0.75m | 8:49AM0.77m | 9:31PM0.76m | 9:34AM0.77m | 10:17PM0.76m | 10:20AM0.75m | 11:06PM0.75m | 11:06AM0.73m | 11:57PM0.74m | 11:52AM0.71m | 00:46AM0.72m | ||||||||
7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | |
— | 5:19 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | |
mm | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
Feels °C | 6 | -2 | -1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 8 | SE 13 | SE 16 | S 8 | S 7 | ESE 13 | E 13 | ESE 14 | SE 10 | ESE 12 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | NW 7 | S 4 | SE 13 |
17 | 27 | 124 | 282 | 178 | 118 | 90 | 145 | 226 | 263 | 621 | 427 | 326 | 224 | 167 | 113 | 77 | 41 | 14 | 9 | 113 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 5 | NNW 8 | SSW 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | SSW 12 | SE 13 | SSW 7 | ESE 13 | SE 9 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | SE 15 | ESE 10 |
4 | 7 | 49 | 142 | 133 | 31 | 42 | 29 | 227 | 122 | 58 | 33 | 20 | 8 | 37 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 40 | 78 | 20 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 13 | ESE 18 | NW 9 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | NW 8 | SSW 13 | SE 12 | SSW 7 | SSW 10 | — | — | S 15 | SSW 14 | SW 9 | S 8 | S 8 | SSW 15 | SE 16 | SSW 13 | SE 11 |
17 | 30 | 3 | 41 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 72 | 18 | 83 | — | — | 4 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 39 | 55 | 19 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 3 | SSW 7 | S 8 | — | — | S 7 | S 7 | SSE 7 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 7 | SSE 3 | ESE 4 | S 10 |
8 | 686 | 902 | — | — | 97 | 195 | 99 | — | — | — | 10 | 50 | 95 | 251 | 202 | 244 | 566 | 4 | 7 | 441 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 25 | 110 | 59 | 25 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 63 | 64 | 126 | 126 | 63 | 110 | 27 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Wellington | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lyall Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lyall Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lyall Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lyall Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lyall Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lyall Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lyall Bay is 6 km (4 miles) from the city of Wellington. If you plan a holiday in Wellington, look for hotels and other accommodation in Wellington. Wellington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










