Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you—surf’s gonna be thin on the ground for a good long stretch. We’re talking about a solid week of pretty ordinary conditions before anything decent shows up.

It all kicks off with a run of poor surf from this Friday, the 4th, all the way through to Sunday the 6th. There’s a persistent NNW breeze making a mess of things, and the swell’s tiny—1 ft to 3 ft—so it’s not even worth paddling out for the few scraps you’d find. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate, sitting between 49 and 239, but the wind state is never favourable for decent waves.

Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th bring some height but it’s ugly. Swell jumps to 4 ft on Monday morning with a bumpy cross-shore and choppy conditions, then Tuesday sees 7 ft to 7 ft of sloppy, lumpy onshore slop. The energy figures are climbing into the strong range (488–616), but with the wind blowing straight on or cross-on, it’s a mess. This setup is looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for a few days—honestly, leave the shortboard at home.

Wednesday morning the 9th is a brief bright spot: Lyall Bay wakes up glassy with 4 ft from the SSE and slight air, energy at 167. It’s surfable but ordinary—a 1 out of 10 kinda session, and the period is short (7 seconds), so it’ll be a bit weak and walled. Not a standout, just a moment of calm before the next blow.

The big wait is for Friday the 11th. The morning shows 8 ft of SSW groundswell at 7 seconds, but glassy conditions with zero wind—calm, clean, glassy. The combined energy hits 929, which is strong. The boards will feel the power, but that short period (7 seconds) means it might be a bit dumpy and hard to read. It’s a solid session for experienced surfers, but beginners should sit this one out.

The Friday afternoon, though, is where the real standout lives. Lyall Bay gets a 10 ft SSW swell at 9 seconds, and the model says “wind and tide favorable, but swell predicted too big for this break.” The energy is massive at 2518. For experts only—this is big, powerful, and with a 19 mph cross-off, it’ll be clean but charging. If you’re a confident surfer, this is the best on offer in the whole 16-day window. The crowds are possible (sometimes), so keep an eye on it.

Water temp sits around 56°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year at Lyall Bay—nothing extreme, just a bit of extra comfort in the wetsuit.

After that, Saturday the 12th afternoon gives a nice little score: 5 ft from the south at 10 seconds, glassy conditions, energy at 573. Expect good surf conditions—a clean, fun size for most surfers, not too crowded likely, and a nice one to finish the swing shift. Sunday the 13th through Monday the 14th morning keep the run going with 4 ft to 4 ft SSW groundswell at longer periods (12–14 seconds), clean cross-off winds, and energy in the 400s—consistent, workable waves.

Tuesday the 15th gets messy again with onshore rain and lumpy 6 ft, and Wednesday the 16th morning is another monster: 12 ft at 15 seconds, energy a whopping 4682, but labelled too big for the break and with a strong offshore that’ll be hard to paddle into. Only for the brave.

The last days (17th–19th) fade off into small, wind-stricken leftovers with no real appeal.

So, the call: Friday 11th afternoon is the absolute standout—big, clean, expert-only—followed closely by Saturday 12th afternoon for everyone else. The rest is mostly a write-off. Stay patient, or go fishing.

Rusty.

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