Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Lyall Bay is cooking up over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a rough start, no two ways about it. We’ve got a pretty long, quiet spell kicking off this outlook. From Saturday the 15th right through until Wednesday the 19th, the wind is howling out of the south, hammering the coast with onshores that are just wrecking everything. The swell will be big—up to 13ft or 16ft at times—but with that wind, it’s a complete mess. Not even worth paddling out for a look. You’d have to be mad, or a kite surfer. The combined swell energy is strong to very strong during these days, hitting figures like 3474 and 4490, but it means nothing with that wind. Water temp is sitting around 54°F on the 15th, which is right about average for this time of year.

We finally get a break in the weather on Thursday the 20th. Thursday morning is still a bit messy with a light onshore and 7ft swell from the south, but the energy is moderate (760). The real window opens up Thursday afternoon. The wind swings around to a light northerly offshore, only 3 mph, and the swell drops to a cleaner 6ft from the south, with a period of 10 seconds and combined energy of 792. That’s looking clean, and a score of 3/10 internally suggests it’s the best we’ve seen so far. It’s not a standout, but it’s surfable.

Friday the 21st is where it gets interesting. Friday morning has a 5ft S swell at 13 seconds with a cross-offshore breeze, but the real winner is Friday afternoon. The swell bumps up just a touch to 6ft from the south, period stretching out to a nice 14 seconds, and we get a clean offshore wind from the NNW at 12 mph. The combined energy is solid at 1235 (moderate energy) and this is a proper window for a decent session. That long period will make for some good shaped waves, but at a beach break like Lyall Bay, it might make them a bit straight-running. Still, it’s the pick of the forecast.

Saturday the 22nd holds a little bit of hope with a smaller 4ft south swell in the morning, clean offshore winds, but the energy drops off fast (317). Afternoon fades out.

Then we’re into a big lull. From Sunday the 23rd all the way through to Wednesday the 26th, the swell is tiny—under 3ft—and the wind is either too strong or cross-off. Not worth getting wet.

We get a pulse late in the outlook on Saturday the 29th. There’s a 4ft swell from the south with a very long period of 18 seconds, and combined energy of 1081. But the wind is onshore, so it’s marginal. Sunday the 30th morning, though, is the real standout at long range. We’ve got a glassy 13ft south swell, period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is cranking at 2229. That’s strong energy. But here’s the catch: 13ft is big. Too big for most. The internal notes say it’s favorable for wind and tide but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s strictly for experts only, and even then, you’d want to be very comfortable in heavy water. It’s promising, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it.

So the standout windows: Friday the 21st afternoon for a clean, fun session on a mid-period south swell. And then keep your eye on Sunday the 30th morning—if you’re a charger, that could be a monster, glassy day, but it’s for experts only.

Rusty.

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