Lyall Bay Surf Break

Lat Long: 41.33° S 174.80° E

Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 28 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Lyall Bay sea temperature is
12.3°C
0.4° 

Lyall Bay surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Lyall Bay surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 12s period, S swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period, S swell with 3,049 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 29 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 10s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lyall Bay this week:

The surf forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Lyall Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 7s period and expected on Friday (Aug 28) at 9PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6PM (Sat 29th Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 10s
Best Surf 6AM (Mon 31st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 12s
Most Powerful 3PM (Tue 1st Sep)11ft (3.5m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, grab your wettie mate, Rusty here. Let's break down the next couple of weeks for our local patch.

Honestly, it’s a bit of a rough start. The wind is going to be a real problem for the first week with gale-force breezes, making things pretty nasty. There’s a small window of real promise, but you gotta be patient and pick your moments. The main event looks like it’ll be the massive pulse of swell arriving around the end of the month and into the first week of September, but the wind is a fickle beast.

Lyall Bay: The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is pretty standard for this time of year. The first chunk of the outlook is a write-off. Friday the 28th of August through to Sunday the 30th is a no-go. You’ve got howling offshore winds – let me tell you, a 28 mph wind is not "offshore" for surfing, it’s terrifying. The swell is tiny and weak, with combined energy only hitting 96 on Sunday morning. Don’t even bother.

Now, here’s the catch. Look at the morning of Monday the 31st of August. The forecast is for a solid 10ft south swell with a 12-second period and a gentle offshore breeze. The energy is massive at 3006. But here’s the thing – Lyall Bay is not the spot for that. That is a serious, expert-only size. For anyone who isn’t charging, it’s way too big. It will be a washing machine. The wind absolutely nukes it from the NW later that Monday afternoon, so it’s a one-shot deal.

Tuesday the 1st of September is messy with onshore southerly wind. Wednesday the 2nd has a clean 6ft swell in the morning with a fresh offshore, but the combined energy is only 907 and the forecast is marginal. It's a maybe.

After that, we drop off into tiny, weak surf for days. Thursday the 3rd through to Monday the 8th of September is all below 3ft with strong to near-gale winds. It’s a long, flat spell.

Then, out of nowhere, the model is screaming about Tuesday the 8th of September. We’re looking at a massive 18ft swell from the SSW. The combined energy is a monstrous 5846. Again, for Lyall Bay, that is simply too big and dangerous. It’s not for paddling, it’s for towing and jet skis if anything. The wind is strong cross-offshore, so the surface would be textured chaos.

The only true standout in this entire 16-day window comes much later. Saturday the 12th of September. The morning looks absolutely perfect. We’ve got a 4ft south swell with a 12-second period, combined energy of 507 – a nice, manageable size. But the best part is the wind: it's forecast to be glassy. A 3 mph southeasterly. That’s it. The wave state is described as "glassy". For a break like Lyall Bay, which is pretty exposed and can get chopped up, that is the gold standard. The afternoon stays clean with light cross-offshore winds. This is your best bet for the whole period. Saturday the 12th of September morning, get out there and soak up that smooth, clean energy.

So, to sum it up: the whole first week is blown out or too big. There’s a tiny, marginal window on the 2nd. The big swells on the 31st and 8th are for experts only. The clear winner, the one to actually get excited about, is Saturday the 12th of September.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NNW on Fri afternoon, light winds from the NNW by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NW on Mon afternoon, light winds from the NE by Tue night).

Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
!
0
0
0
0
4
2
1
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
S
12
1
S
12
0.9
S
11
1
S
11
0.9
S
11
0.7
S
10
0.5
SSW
9
0.5
SSW
12
2.2
SSW
6
3
S
12
3
S
13
2.4
SSW
12
1.9
S
12
3.5
S
12
2.5
S
12
1.8
S
12
1.5
S
11
1.2
S
11
1
S
11
0.9
S
10
0.7
S
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
423
282
206
240
184
98
49
82
363
3006
2518
1670
1134
3049
1889
895
566
351
235
177
98
Wind (km/h)
45
N
50
NNW
45
NNW
35
NNW
30
NNW
15
NNW
25
N
50
NW
30
SSW
15
NNW
50
NW
50
NW
35
S
20
S
15
N
35
NNW
30
NNW
30
NW
35
NNW
40
NNW
45
NNW
Wind State
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
on
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
4:42PM1.51m
5:15AM1.43m
5:34PM1.51m
6:06AM1.46m
6:28PM1.52m
6:57AM1.50m
7:24PM1.54m
7:48AM1.56m
8:18PM1.56m
8:38AM1.62m
9:10PM1.59m
9:27AM1.67m
10:00PM1.61m
Low Tide
10:28AM0.70m
11:15PM0.73m
11:19AM0.69m
00:10AM0.72m
12:13PM0.68m
1:01AM0.71m
1:08PM0.67m
1:50AM0.69m
2:06PM0.65m
2:39AM0.67m
3:02PM0.62m
3:27AM0.63m
3:55PM0.59m
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:52
6:50
6:48
6:48
6:46
6:43
6:43
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
 mm
1
7
4
Temp °C
13
14
13
12
12
12
15
14
12
12
13
13
8
9
9
12
14
14
14
14
14
Feels °C
4
4
4
4
5
8
7
3
8
4
2
2
0
6
3
4
8
7
7
7
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Lyall Bay Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Lyall Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lyall Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lyall Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lyall Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lyall Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Lyall Bay is 6 km (4 miles) from the city of Wellington. If you plan a holiday in Wellington, look for hotels and other accommodation in Wellington. Wellington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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