Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – we’re looking at a pretty grim stretch ahead for Lyall Bay. The next week and a half is going to be a write-off for decent waves, so don't get your hopes up.

The water is sitting at 53°F – about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

We’ve got a long, long gap. Starting from Friday the 24th of July, and running right through until the very end of the month, the surf is just poor. The wind is a massive issue. Friday brings a screaming 31 mph offshore, which is clean but practically impossible to paddle into. Then it swings onshore, smashing the swell up. The swell energy is weak, ranging from tiny 19 to a moderate 382 (combined energy), but the wind is ruining everything. The first real glimmer of hope doesn't appear until Tuesday the 28th of July.

That morning, we get a gentle offshore wind from the north at 9 mph, cleaning up a 4ft ESE groundswell with a solid 13-second period. The energy is moderate (455), and the wave comment says "expect good surf conditions." That Tuesday afternoon is similar, with a moderate offshore. This is the best you're going to get in the first week – small, clean, and glassy, but it's a short window before the wind cranks up again on Wednesday.

The rest of the week is a mix of fresh offshore winds and strong cross-offshore winds that make the 2ft to 3ft swell too weak to be any fun. The energy drops back to low levels (85-297). The 31st of July brings a sudden 7ft onshore slop with a short 6-second period and energy of 412 – a complete mess. The first of August is even bigger, with 8ft onshore and 873 energy, but it’s all wind-affected junk. This size is expert-only territory, but the quality is terrible.

The second week continues the trend of poor conditions. Onshore and cross-onshore winds dominate, with moderate energy swells (196-456) but the wind chops everything up. The 7th of August shows a surge of energy (862-1572) with a 6ft, 15-second period swell from the SSW, but it's onshore again. Disappointing.

Now, the one true standout in this whole 16-day window is Saturday the 8th of August. The morning looks promising. We’ve got a 6ft S swell with a 12-second period, which is a solid groundswell. The energy is very strong at 952. But the best part? Clean conditions with a 3 mph offshore wind, described as "slight air." That’s as good as it gets. The wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions." This is the session to circle. The afternoon is a step down with a light cross-onshore, but still a 6ft swell.

Lyall Bay is inconsistent and a beginner spot, and this forecast is a brutal reminder of that. When it’s good, it’s a fun little wave, but for the next two weeks, it’s a waiting game. The blank run we’re looking at is pretty normal for the area when the wind gods are angry. Stay patient. The 8th of August is your one shot.

Rusty.

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