
Surf Forecasts:
Lyall Bay surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 11 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, SSW swell with 1,435 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 7 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 6s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lyall Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 07) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lyall Bay in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 10) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Mon 7th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lyall Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you—surf’s gonna be thin on the ground for a good long stretch. We’re talking about a solid week of pretty ordinary conditions before anything decent shows up.
It all kicks off with a run of poor surf from this Friday, the 4th, all the way through to Sunday the 6th. There’s a persistent NNW breeze making a mess of things, and the swell’s tiny—1 ft to 3 ft—so it’s not even worth paddling out for the few scraps you’d find. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate, sitting between 49 and 239, but the wind state is never favourable for decent waves.
Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th bring some height but it’s ugly. Swell jumps to 4 ft on Monday morning with a bumpy cross-shore and choppy conditions, then Tuesday sees 7 ft to 7 ft of sloppy, lumpy onshore slop. The energy figures are climbing into the strong range (488–616), but with the wind blowing straight on or cross-on, it’s a mess. This setup is looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for a few days—honestly, leave the shortboard at home.
Wednesday morning the 9th is a brief bright spot: Lyall Bay wakes up glassy with 4 ft from the SSE and slight air, energy at 167. It’s surfable but ordinary—a 1 out of 10 kinda session, and the period is short (7 seconds), so it’ll be a bit weak and walled. Not a standout, just a moment of calm before the next blow.
The big wait is for Friday the 11th. The morning shows 8 ft of SSW groundswell at 7 seconds, but glassy conditions with zero wind—calm, clean, glassy. The combined energy hits 929, which is strong. The boards will feel the power, but that short period (7 seconds) means it might be a bit dumpy and hard to read. It’s a solid session for experienced surfers, but beginners should sit this one out.
The Friday afternoon, though, is where the real standout lives. Lyall Bay gets a 10 ft SSW swell at 9 seconds, and the model says “wind and tide favorable, but swell predicted too big for this break.” The energy is massive at 2518. For experts only—this is big, powerful, and with a 19 mph cross-off, it’ll be clean but charging. If you’re a confident surfer, this is the best on offer in the whole 16-day window. The crowds are possible (sometimes), so keep an eye on it.
Water temp sits around 56°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year at Lyall Bay—nothing extreme, just a bit of extra comfort in the wetsuit.
After that, Saturday the 12th afternoon gives a nice little score: 5 ft from the south at 10 seconds, glassy conditions, energy at 573. Expect good surf conditions—a clean, fun size for most surfers, not too crowded likely, and a nice one to finish the swing shift. Sunday the 13th through Monday the 14th morning keep the run going with 4 ft to 4 ft SSW groundswell at longer periods (12–14 seconds), clean cross-off winds, and energy in the 400s—consistent, workable waves.
Tuesday the 15th gets messy again with onshore rain and lumpy 6 ft, and Wednesday the 16th morning is another monster: 12 ft at 15 seconds, energy a whopping 4682, but labelled too big for the break and with a strong offshore that’ll be hard to paddle into. Only for the brave.
The last days (17th–19th) fade off into small, wind-stricken leftovers with no real appeal.
So, the call: Friday 11th afternoon is the absolute standout—big, clean, expert-only—followed closely by Saturday 12th afternoon for everyone else. The rest is mostly a write-off. Stay patient, or go fishing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri morning, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NNW on Fri morning, light winds from the SSE by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Mon morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed morning, strong winds from the NNW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 10 | S 9 | SSW 7 | SSW 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 10 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSE 5 | S 7 | SSW 8 | S 8 | S 8 | S 8 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 26 | 52 | 24 | 235 | 96 | 198 | 137 | 48 | 80 | 467 | 1052 | 484 | 558 | 310 | 140 | 74 | 22 | 18 | 60 | 78 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | glassy | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:16AM1.71m | 10:48PM1.62m | 11:08AM1.73m | 11:37PM1.62m | 12:02PM1.74m | 00:30AM1.61m | 12:56PM1.74m | 1:26AM1.59m | 1:52PM1.74m | 2:24AM1.58m | 2:48PM1.72m | 3:22AM1.57m | 3:46PM1.70m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:46PM0.55m | 5:04AM0.55m | 5:36PM0.51m | 5:52AM0.51m | 6:25PM0.49m | 6:41AM0.48m | 7:15PM0.48m | 7:33AM0.47m | 8:07PM0.49m | 8:30AM0.47m | 9:03PM0.51m | 9:29AM0.47m | 10:02PM0.55m | ||||||||
6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | |
— | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 16 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4 |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 7 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 10 | S 9 | SSW 7 | SSW 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 10 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 9 | SSW 9 | NNW 8 | NNW 8 | SE 8 | SE 8 | S 8 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | S 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 15 |
33 | 26 | 52 | 24 | 235 | 96 | 198 | 137 | 35 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 93 | 55 | 310 | 140 | 74 | 18 | 10 | 60 | 71 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | — | SSW 16 | NW 8 | SSW 15 | NNW 8 | NNW 8 | NNW 9 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SE 7 | SSW 20 |
30 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | 48 | 14 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 78 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 10 | S 9 | SE 10 | — | S 10 | — | — | N 16 | SSW 15 | NW 8 | NE 7 | NE 9 | S 13 | NNW 9 | NNW 8 | S 19 | S 18 | S 11 | S 24 | SSW 6 |
19 | 10 | 7 | 4 | — | 2 | — | — | 5 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 7 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 7 | NW 7 | SSE 5 | S 7 | SSW 8 | S 8 | S 8 | — | — | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 7 | NW 6 | WNW 5 |
992 | 159 | 119 | 117 | 172 | 244 | 418 | 444 | 322 | 80 | 467 | 1052 | 484 | 558 | — | — | 15 | 111 | 595 | 183 | 140 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 135 | 77 | 296 | 77 | 110 | 77 | 126 | 115 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 63 | 59 | 59 | 25 | 0 | 54 | 54 | 108 | 123 | 88 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Wellington | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lyall Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lyall Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lyall Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lyall Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lyall Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lyall Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lyall Bay is 6 km (4 miles) from the city of Wellington. If you plan a holiday in Wellington, look for hotels and other accommodation in Wellington. Wellington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










