Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's comin' down at Lyall Bay. Gotta be straight with you, this forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, and we're gonna have to be patient. The first week and a half is lookin' pretty grim for a proper paddle, with only a couple of windows that might be worth a look for the more experienced crew. The real standout, if it holds, is waiting for us a fair way out.

First up, the story for the next several days is mostly just frustration. Strong winds – we're talkin' 25 to 37 mph – are blowin' across the bay, messin' up what little swell there is. The combined swell energy is mostly weak to moderate, with values like 480 to 84 in the first few days, so it's got no punch. We go straight through to Thursday the 5th and Friday the 6th of September with no real reason to get wet, just messy, stormy conditions.

Now, Saturday the 7th and Sunday the 8th is where it gets weird and a bit dangerous. A big pulse of swell is due, hittin' 13 ft, but it's short-period, onshore junk. The combined energy is huge – 2063 on Saturday morning, and a massive 2927 on Sunday afternoon. That’s a whole lot of power, but with the wind howlin' onshore and that short period, this is a full-on washing machine. Not a paddle surfer's wave. This looks way more interesting for the kite crew than anyone else. The water temp is about what you'd expect for this time of year, nothing unusual to report there.

We get a little breather on Tuesday the 10th of September. The swell drops back to a more manageable 5 ft from the S with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind goes light and cross-shore from the West at 6 mph, with the combined energy at 699. That's a moderate, workable level. This is our first real window. It's clean, but the description is "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," so it might be a bit tricky. Still, for the keen bean, this is the best bet in the early run. Lyall Bay is a fairly exposed spot and a beginner spot, but at 5 ft with this wind, it'll be more for the intermediate crew.

The wind gets ugly again for a few days after that with strong winds stripping the waves away. The energy drops right down into the weak zone, with values as low as 174 on Thursday the 12th. A whole lot of nothin'.

But hold onto your boards, because the real highlight is lining up for Friday the 13th of September into that weekend. Now, I know that's a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt, but the models are looking tasty. For Friday morning, the 13th, we’ve got a solid 8 ft SSW groundswell with a 12-second period. The combined energy is a strong 1896. But the magic is in the wind – a clean 16 mph offshore from the North. An 8 ft wave at Lyall Bay with strong offshore wind... that's a proper session for the experienced surfers only. This is too big for the beginners, but for anyone with their wits about them on a step-up board, it could be the standout of the whole run. It's described as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and I can feel the stoke just reading it.

That quality carries into Saturday the 14th and Sunday the 15th as well. The swell drops to a solid 6 ft to 7 ft from the S with an 11-second period, and the wind stays offshore from the N/NNE at 19-22 mph. The energy hangs around the 700-990 mark, which is solidly moderate to strong. These days are a touch smaller, which will make them more manageable for a wider range of surfers, but still clean and punchy. Keep in mind, Lyall Bay can get crowded when it's good, so get in early.

After that little run, the energy starts to fade again, with a return to windy, messy conditions through the middle of the following week, with the combined energy dropping back to double digits and weak again by Thursday the 19th.

So, to sum it up: suffer through the first week of gales and close-outs. Tuesday the 10th is your early consolation prize for the desperate. But the real target is that Friday the 13th, Saturday the 14th, and Sunday the 15th of September. That's the golden window with solid, clean, offshore groundswell. Get it while it's good.

Rusty.

Read more