Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right on, folks. Rusty here, and I've been staring at the charts for this stretch, and I gotta be straight with you—this is a tale of two very different weeks. The next week to ten days is going to be a real mixed bag, with plenty of wind and only a couple of windows where it all comes together. But if you've got patience, the tail end of the month looks like it could be the real payoff.

First up, Lyall Bay. We’re starting with a bit of a rough patch. The opening weekend, August 22nd and 23rd, is a write-off. We’ve got swell, sure, but it's getting smashed by screaming winds hitting 31 mph or more. The water is a mess. You’d be mad to paddle out. There’s a real lull coming on the 23rd with swell dropping to 1 ft and barely any energy (24) behind it, so don't even bother.

Then, the first real glimmer comes Monday morning, August 24th. The wind swings offshore from the NNW at a gentle 9 mph, and there’s a serious bit of size—8 ft of SSW groundswell with a 12-second period. The energy reading is huge (1738). This is solid, powerful stuff. That swell is a bit much for a learner, but for anyone with a bit of experience, it’ll be a ripper of a session. The afternoon picks up a fresh offshore, so it'll still be clean, but the tide might make it a bit tricky.

After that, things get fluky. Tuesday the 25th is all cross-off winds and dropping energy, so it’s pretty forgettable. But keep an eye on Wednesday the 26th. The morning is pure magic. Glassy conditions, an easterly breeze so light it’s barely there, and a 3 ft SSW groundswell with a long 14-second period. The energy is moderate (409), but that glassy surface is a gold-star moment for logging or a longboard. Then the afternoon builds again with 6 ft of SSW swell and a clean offshores—that’s a proper session.

Thursday the 27th is another standout afternoon window. That Southerly swell is holding at 5 ft with a 12-second period, and the wind goes glassy from the south. That’s a recipe for some beautifully groomed, clean-faced walls.

Things get real gnarly again from Friday the 28th into early September. The wind is either howling or onshore, making a mess of things. There’s a massive spike on September 2nd with a swell over 16 ft, but it’s accompanied by a near gale. Too dangerous, not worth it.

Now, for the patient ones. The real show might be on Monday, September 1st. Yes, that's a week and a half away. The light offshore wind from the NNE is a beauty, and we’re looking at a big 8 ft S swell. The energy is pumping (1412). This is a classic Lyall Bay day for experienced surfers. The afternoon of that same day gets even bigger, 10 ft S swell, but the model is saying it might actually be too big for the break and the wind and tide get a bit funny. So I’d hit the morning session hard.

After that, there’s a brutal stretch of onshore gales and rain from the 3rd to the 6th of September. The swell will be there, huge at times, but it’ll be a washing machine.

So, here’s how I see it: The absolute pick of the whole 16-day run is the morning of Wednesday, August 26th. The 3 ft SSW groundswell is long-period stuff (14s) which means proper energy on the face, and glassy conditions in Lyall Bay (Wellington) are a rare treat. My second call, for those who like it heavier, is the morning of Monday, September 1st with that 8 ft S swell and clean offshore winds. That’s a proper barrel-hunting session. The rest of the time, you’re gambling with the wind.

Rusty, signing off.

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