Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Lyall Bay is the only spot on the cards here, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next two weeks. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

The next few days are pretty flat and ordinary. Wednesday and Thursday the 12th and 13th see small, weak swell coming out of the SE and ESE, with heights maxing out around 3 ft. The wind is a light cross-off, so the surface is clean, but the waves are tiny and short-period (7–8 seconds), lacking any real push. Combined energy is weak (130 and 116), so you’re basically on a longboard or a foil.

Friday the 14th morning is interesting – glassy conditions with a 0.7 ft swell from the SSW, but a super long period of 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, but barely any height. The energy is very low (55). It’s more of a novelty than a proper session. Afternoon turns onshore, so that’s it.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th go downhill fast. Onshore winds build, and by Sunday morning we’ve got an 8 ft swell from the south with a near gale on top. Combined energy jumps to 951, but it’s a messy, blown-out mess. That’s expert-only territory if you’re brave enough, but honestly, it’s not surfable in any fun way.

Monday the 17th stays big and onshore, with 7 ft S swell and 6-second period. The energy is strong (539), but the wind is on it, making it a washing machine. Tuesday the 18th is more of the same – onshore and messy.

Now, the standout: Wednesday the 19th. This is a proper big swell event. We’re looking at a 15 ft S swell with a 16-second period on Wednesday morning, and the combined energy is massive (10,104). The wind is light and cross-off, so the surface will be clean. The problem is, this is way too big for Lyall Bay – it’s an expert-only beast, and even then, the wave quality will be challenging. Good luck if you’ve got the skills and a big board. The afternoon stays oversized at 12 ft.

Thursday the 20th through the 22nd sees the swell drop but still sizeable. Thursday morning is 10 ft S swell with light cross-onshore wind – still big, but more manageable for strong paddlers. By Saturday the 22nd, we get a clean offshore breeze from the NNW and 6 ft SSE swell, combined energy 687. That’s the best window for a decent session without the chaos. The wind is moderate offshore, so the waves will be clean and well-shaped. The period is 11 seconds, so it’s got some power.

The following week, from the 23rd onward, fades out. Sunday the 23rd has offshore winds but the swell drops to 5 ft, and then the wind cranks up to near gale strength from the 24th to the 26th, making it basically un-surfable. By the 27th, we’re back to tiny, onshore slop.

If you’re after the best of the best, I’d pin Saturday the 22nd as the top pick. Offshore wind, chest to head-high swell, clean conditions. The 19th is a monster, but only for the brave and the skilled.

Rusty.

Read more