Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Lyall Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag. The first real standout is gonna be Monday morning, the 24th of August. The ocean is clean, with a solid 7ft SSW groundswell ticking over at 13 seconds. That’s a proper long-period swell, so the wave shape will be there, but you’ll be waiting for the sets. The combined energy is pumping hard at 1492 (moderate to strong), and with a moderate offshore breeze from the NNW, the faces will be clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers—the size is pushing past 5ft, so it’s a bit hefty for the beginners. Keep an eye on the water temp, which is sitting at 52°, about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year—nothing too wild, just a standard chilly Wellington dip.

The real highlight, though, is Thursday morning, the 27th of August. This is the one to circle. We’re looking at a 6ft S swell with a very long period of 18 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy is a massive 2245 (strong). The wind is a light breeze from the NW, just cross-off, keeping things clean. The wave quality will be top-notch, but that long period means it’s a point-break-style wave—it’ll hold up well here at Lyall Bay, but don’t expect it to be a quick, crumbly beachie. It’s excellent for experienced surfers again. Take note: the swell is a little over 5ft, so it’s a step up from the beginner-friendly stuff.

Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th? Not much to shout about. Friday gets hammered by a strong offshore breeze that’s hard to paddle into, and by Saturday morning we get a glassy 4ft S swell, but it’s only 11 seconds and the energy is weak (319). It’s a small, clean window, but it’s not going to fire.

Then we hit a bit of a dry spell. From Sunday the 30th right through to Monday the 7th of September, it’s mostly small, weak, or blown out. The wind is either too strong or cross-off, and the swell sizes drop below 3ft most days. There’s a brief moment on Sunday the 6th of September in the afternoon—a 4ft SSW swell with a 15-second period, but the wind is onshore from the SSE, so it’s messy and marginal. Not worth getting too excited about.

The next serious event is Tuesday the 1st of September. The morning brings a massive 12ft S swell from the SSW direction, with a 13-second period. The combined energy hits 3662 (very strong). But here’s the catch—this is too big for Lyall Bay. That’s a big-wave day for experienced chargers only, and the wind is a fresh offshore from the NNW, so it’ll be a clean beast, but the size is over 8ft, so it’s strictly for those with the skills and the big-wave gear. The afternoon drops to a still-pumping 8ft, which is still a handful.

After that, the rest of the outlook is pretty grim. From Wednesday the 2nd of September through to Tuesday the 8th, it’s a long stretch of poor conditions. The swell is small, the wind is either onshore or strong cross-off, and the energy is weak. There’s no real surf to speak of—just a lot of blown-out, small waves. The gap from the 30th of August to the 1st of September is a few days of nothing, and then it’s a solid week of poor quality.

So, to wrap it up: the true standout is Thursday morning, the 27th of August. If you can get out for that long-period S swell with the light wind, you’ll be grinning. The Monday the 24th morning is also a good, solid session. The rest of the window is either too big, too small, or too windy. Keep the board waxed and the eyes on the sky for that Thursday.

Rusty.

Read more