Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day folks, Rusty here. Looking at the 16-day window for Lyall Bay, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a mixed bag with a couple of windows that’ll get the heart rate up, but plenty of flat, blown-out days in between. The water’s sitting around 56°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing crazy.

We start off with a bit of a dud. The 16th and 17th are rough – tiny swell around 1 to 2ft, and while the wind is offshore, it’s howling from the NNW at 22 to 28 mph. There’s just no power in the water. The 18th is a tease – the swell bumps up to around 3ft from the SE with a 13-second period, and it goes glassy. It’s clean, but it’s small. You’ll get ankle-biters, nothing to write home about.

Then things start to move. The 19th sees the swell push to around 3ft from the SSW, with a 15-second period. The morning is looking alright with a moderate offshore wind from the N at 12 mph. That’s your first real chance to get a few fun ones. The energy is moderate (600), and it’s clean. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy with the cross-off breeze picking up, though.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The 20th and into the 21st, the swell jumps big – we’re talking 8 to 11ft from the S. But hold on, the 20th has onshore winds whipping at 22 to 25 mph. It’s going to be a messy, raw ocean. Not surfable for most. The 21st, the swell is still huge at around 10ft from the S with a long 11-second period, but the wind turns offshore from the N. The energy is strong (2170). This is pumping, but it’s also critical. This is expert territory only. Too big for beginners, and even for most regulars, that kind of size at Lyall Bay is a serious undertaking. The afternoon drops to around 7ft, but it’s still pretty full-on.

We then hit a rough patch. From the 22nd to the 24th, the wind is onshore, mostly from the S and SSE. The swell is all over the place, with short periods (5-8 seconds) and choppy conditions. It’s a mess. Then the 25th shows some promise – the swell settles to around 4ft from the S with a 9-second period, and the wind goes offshore again from the N at 15 mph. It’s clean, but the period is a bit short, so it’ll be a bit crumbly. Marginal at best.

The 26th is poor, the 27th is poor with onshore winds. It’s a real run of bad luck.

But then, the standouts. The 29th – oh boy. The morning is still rough with a strong cross-off breeze, but the afternoon? The wind dies to nearly nothing, just a slight air from the WNW. The swell is around 6ft from the S with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 805. It’s glassy, clean, and there’s some proper push to it. That’s your best session of the whole window. The 28th morning also looks decent – around 8ft from the S with a 13-second period and offshore N winds, but it’s a bit bigger and the morning is labelled as marginal. Still, it's worth a paddle.

After that, we fade out. The 30th is onshore and poor. The 1st of October sees tiny 2ft waves with a strong NNW cross-off breeze, which is essentially flat.

So, the call is this: your best chances are the morning of the 19th for a fun, medium-sized session, and the standout is the afternoon of the 29th. It’s glassy, clean, and has some real power behind it. The 21st is for the hardcore experts only, and even then, it’s a beast. Don’t bother with the rest, too much wind and too little swell.

Alright, that’s the picture. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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