Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Lyall Bay for the next couple of weeks, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. There’s a patch of clean, rideable waves early on, but then the wind turns onshore and it gets messy for a solid stretch. The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is pretty much spot on average for this time of year, so a good 4/3 will do ya.

To start, the best bet is clear: get out there early on Sunday, the 9th. The wind is a gentle offshore breeze from the north, and we’re looking at a clean 3ft of south swell rolling in. The energy is moderate (330), and it’s shaping up to be a proper little session. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun. Lyall Bay (Wellington) is your spot.

After that, the surf drops right off. Monday the 10th turns onshore with a southerly wind and the swell gets weaker and more confused. That poor spell runs through Thursday the 13th. There’s a tiny bump on Wednesday morning the 12th, but at 3ft and with a short 7-second period, it’s just not worth suiting up for anything but a grovel.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Saturday the 15th, a bigger south swell starts to show its face, but the wind is all over it. It’s onshore and the surf quality is going to be poor. That push of energy builds into Sunday the 16th, with the swell hitting 8ft and the energy jumping right up to 1171. But again, the wind is cross-offshore and fresh, so it’s going to be a bit of a mess.

The real standout for the second week is Monday the 17th. The wind swings back offshore, light and clean from the north. We’ve got a solid 5ft of south swell with a decent 10-second period. The energy is strong (411). This looks like the best combination of size and clean conditions in the whole window. It’s a 2/5 rating but that's more about the lack of consistency. It’s a Monday, so if you can, call in sick.

But don’t get too excited, because from Tuesday the 18th onwards, it’s a different story. A strong southwesterly flow kicks in, with winds getting up to near gale force. The swell stays big, but it’s going to be blown out and onshore. By the 19th, the energy is huge, reading 1615, with 8ft of swell, but that south-southwest wind is just going to wreck it. This poor, blown-out run looks set to continue right through the following week. There's more big swell on the 21st with a very long 14-second period, but it's all for nothing with that southerly wind hammering it onshore. It’s a long stretch of messy, unrideable surf, and honestly, it looks way more interesting for the kite-surfers than us paddle surfers.

So, to sum it up: The window starts with one good, clean morning on Sunday the 9th. Then a long flat spell, followed by another decent, clean day on Monday the 17th. After that, it’s a battle against wind for a whole week. The long-range stuff looks promising in size, but it's a lottery on the wind. Keep your eyes on the forecast, but don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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