Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's see what's on the card for Lyall Bay.

Honestly, looking at the full 16-day window, it's a real mixed bag. We've got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions to start, with a few brief windows of potential, but the standout session is a bit of a tricky one. The water temp is sitting at 54°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing too wild on that front.

The first bit of surf we can even talk about is Wednesday the 12th. It's small, with a 3ft SE swell, but a measly 7-second period. The wind is a light cross-off from the NE, so the surface is clean, but it's pretty weak energy (135) and honestly, just a very ordinary day. Not worth getting excited about.

Thursday the 13th is even smaller. The morning sees a 1ft SSE swell with a 9-second period, and while the wind is offshore from the N, it's a moderate breeze at 12 mph. The energy is gone (67). Afternoon is the same story, just smaller. Nothing doing.

Friday the 14th through to Sunday the 16th is a dead zone. We're talking tiny waves, onshore winds, and a lot of poor surf conditions. Saturday the 15th afternoon gets a bump in energy to 174 with a 4ft SSW swell, but the wind is howling onshore at 19 mph, making it a total mess. Sunday the 16th morning sees a big jump in energy (1297) with a 10ft S swell, but again, onshore winds at 22 mph ruin it. That's kite-surfing territory, not for a paddle board.

The first real flicker of hope comes Monday the 17th afternoon. The wind swings to a light cross-off from the NW at 6 mph, and the swell jumps to a clean 6ft from the S with a 9-second period. The energy is solid (722) and the conditions are described as "clean". This is a good, solid option for a surf. It's not huge, but it's rideable and clean.

Now, the one that will get your attention is Wednesday the 19th. The forecast shows a massive 13ft S groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The wind is a gentle offshore from the NNW. The energy reading is astronomical (8935). However – and this is a big however – the report says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is for experts only, and even then, it's a beast. That long period will make it punchy. It's a standout in terms of power, but you have to be a serious charger to even think about it. The afternoon is similar, still huge.

Thursday the 20th is the best of the bunch for the average surfer. The morning brings a 7ft S swell with a 12-second period, and a moderate offshore wind from the N at 12 mph. The energy is strong (1351) and the conditions are described as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is your pick. The swell is solid, the wind is clean, and the period is long enough to give it some shape. The afternoon is very similar, just a touch smaller at 7ft. This is the stand-out session.

After that, it's all downhill. From Friday the 21st onwards, the wind gets howling again (strong breeze from the NNW), the swell drops off, and the conditions are poor. There's a long gap of nothing worthwhile from the 21st through to the end of the outlook on the 27th. The second week is a write-off.

So, bottom line: if you're keen, you've got a good window on the 17th afternoon, but the real prize is the 20th. Thursday the 20th is your day. The wind is right, the swell is solid, and it's going to be clean. The 19th is for the big-wave crew only.

Rusty.

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