Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee and settle in, because I’m gonna walk you through what’s shaping up for Lyall Bay over the next couple of weeks. I’m Rusty, and I’m calling it straight.

First thing you need to know: Lyall Bay is a pretty exposed beach break, and it gets a lot of wind. The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

Alright, let’s start from the beginning of this forecast. To be honest, the first week is a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 25th of July is a no-go – we’ve got a tiny 0.7 ft swell with a light rain and a southerly wind messing it up, and then it jumps to a big, messy 10 ft on the afternoon with a strong southerly gale. Just poor conditions all round. Sunday the 26th has some size (5 ft) but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s chopped and lumpy. Monday and Tuesday mornings are also pretty ordinary, with onshore winds and small bumpy surf.

Then, finally, on Tuesday the 28th of July, we get a window. Tuesday morning is looking like the standout of this whole outlook. The swell is coming from the ESE at 3 ft, but the period is a healthy 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The real kicker is the wind: glassy. Absolutely flat calm, light NNE breeze. That means clean, smooth faces. The combined wave energy is moderate (468), and the conditions are rated as good. It won’t be huge, but for a Tuesday morning session, it’s going to be a dream.

Tuesday afternoon gets even better in terms of wave quality, with the swell building to 4 ft from the ESE, a very long 14-second period, and light offshore winds from the NNW. This is the peak of the run. Clean, lined-up sets. The wave energy is building to strong (679). If you can only get out once in this whole 16-day window, make it Tuesday the 28th.

Wednesday the 29th still has decent surf with 3 ft to 3 ft ESE swell, but the wind picks up hard from the north, 19 to 25 mph. It’s offshore, so it’s clean, but it’s strong offshore, making it hard to paddle into and hold your position. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are a total drop-off; the swell gets tiny (1 ft to 2 ft) and the wind is howling from the northwest. Not worth paddling out.

The first week of August is a rough one. On the 1st (Saturday) it’s small and cross-onshore. On the 2nd (Sunday) there’s a bit of a bump from the SSW with a 15-second period (3 ft), but the wind is onshore. Then from Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th, we get hammered. The swell spikes up to 12 ft, but it’s accompanied by near-gale force southerly winds. The combined wave energy gets up to 3175 on the 5th – that’s very strong energy – but it’s all wind-affected, blown-out chaos. This is not for paddling; it’s a kite-surfing setup if anything.

Friday the 7th of August is still big (8 ft) with 14-second period, but cross-onshore winds make it lumpy.

Now, for the second week, we finally get another proper window. Saturday the 8th of August is looking promising. The swell drops to a manageable 4 ft from the SSE, with a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind from the north. The conditions are clean, and the wave energy is moderate (575). This is your second call. It won’t be as magic as the glassy Tuesday, but it will be fun, clean, and shoulder-high.

Sunday the 9th has 4 ft swell but then the wind cranks up hard again from the north (22 to 25 mph), making it hard work despite being offshore.

So, to sum it up: this is a patchy forecast for Lyall Bay. The first week is mostly poor, but don’t miss Tuesday the 28th of July. That’s the one. Saturday the 8th of August is the second-best call, but treat it as a long-range hopeful. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or blown out. The bay can get pretty busy at these times, so expect some company.

Stay safe out there.

- Rusty

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