Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, because Lyall Bay’s got a bit of a story to tell over these next couple of weeks. It’s not gonna be a straight-up, non-stop party, but there’s a couple of windows that’ll get the blood pumping.

We’re kicking off with a bit of a dud, to be honest. Wednesday the 19th is a write-off – a solid 13ft S swell with a 30 km/h onshore wind swinging out of the SSE is just ugly. The combined swell energy is a huge 3592, but it’s all power and no control. That’s strictly for the tow-in crew or the kite surfers; for a paddle, it’s a no-go. The water’s running at 54°F, which is pretty average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Things start to settle on Thursday the 20th. It’s still a bit fat, but by the afternoon we’ve got a 5ft S swell, period dropping to a short 8 seconds, but the wind goes glassy. That will be clean, but short-period S swells at Lyall can be a bit crumbly. Combined energy is a weak 415, so it’s small and gentle.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday the 21st morning is where you want to be. A 5ft S swell, but the period rockets up to 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with some serious legs. The wind is light offshore from the NNW, and the wave comment says “very good surf conditions”. The combined energy is a healthy 977. This is the pick of the first week. That long period will mean clean lines and good shape at Lyall.

Saturday and Sunday are a write-off – the wind is howling from the NNW, 31-35 mph, and the swell drops to nothing. It’s clean but blown out. You’re looking at a gap here.

The next sniff of something comes on Monday the 24th, but the NNW wind is up again, and while there’s a 4ft SSW swell with a 15-second period (591 energy), the cross-off wind will make it tricky. Not worth getting excited about.

We then hit another dry spell right through to the start of September with very small, wind-affected surf. There’s a brief moment on the 30th of August with a glassy 2ft swell, but it’s barely breaking.

But wait for it. The real redemption arc is Thursday the 3rd of September. The morning shows a 5ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, combined energy of 1084, and a moderate offshore NNW breeze. The wave comment is “very good surf conditions”. This is the second standout of the forecast. The afternoon holds a similar 5ft S swell, clean, but the wind swings a little cross-off, so the morning is the session to nail.

So, to sum it up: your two windows are Friday the 21st morning for the long-period groundswell, and Thursday the 3rd of September morning for the solid, clean SSW pulse. Everything else is either blown out or flat. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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