Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this 16-day window for Lyall Bay is a bit of a mixed bag. There’s a solid pulse of energy coming through, but it’s almost all too big or too messy for a good paddle. The water temp is sitting at 55.2°F, which is about 1.4°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so nothing too wild there—just your average chilly winter water.

We don’t have any proper surf on offer right now. The first real chance of a wave worth paddling for is Thursday afternoon, 6th August. It’s not a standout by any means, but the afternoon brings a clean 4.6 ft swell from the SE with a 10-second period and light offshore NNW wind at 6 mph. The combined swell energy is moderate (781). It’ll be small but clean, a bit of a sneaky session if you’re hungry.

Friday the 7th looks bigger but rougher. The morning has 5.2 ft from the S with a longer 15-second period, which is nice in theory, but that NNW wind is blowing 22 mph, making it a cross-offshore mess. Combined energy is strong (1538), but the wind is just too strong for a good time. The afternoon is similar—6.2 ft, 13-second period, but that same fresh breeze kills the quality.

Saturday the 8th drops off. Morning has 4.9 ft from the S at 11 seconds, but the wind is still up at 12 mph from the NW, creating cross-off conditions. Combined energy has dropped to moderate (582). Not worth getting excited about.

From Sunday the 9th through to Monday the 17th, it’s a long, flat run of tiny waves and poor conditions. Swell heights hover around 0.7 ft to 3.0 ft, with onshore or strong offshore winds that make it either chopped out or impossible to paddle into. There’s a gap of over a week where you’ll be better off doing something else.

Now, here’s the real kicker. On Monday the 17th of August, we’ve got a big pulse of swell—9.8 ft from the SSW with a 9-second period. The morning is clean with a slight offshore NNW breeze, and the afternoon goes glassy with a WNW breeze. Combined energy is very strong (2008 in the afternoon). But here’s the catch: 9.8 ft is too big for Lyall Bay—this is for experts only, and even then it’s a beast. The short period (7-9 seconds) means it’s not a clean groundswell, it’s more of a lumpy, powerful wall. If you’re a very experienced local and you know the bank, you might get a few, but this is not a beginner’s day.

Tuesday the 18th stays big, with 9.8 ft from the S at 14 seconds in the morning—very long period groundswell. Combined energy is massive (3101). But the wind is cross-onshore from the ESE at 6 mph, so it’s bumpy. The 14-second period will make it wall up and close out at a beach break like Lyall Bay—it’s better suited to a point or reef. The afternoon drops to 8.2 ft but stays cross-onshore and choppy.

Wednesday the 19th still has 8.2 ft from the S at 12 seconds in the morning, with light cross-onshore wind—cleanish but big. Again, only for experts. Combined energy is strong (1676). The afternoon goes choppy.

After that, it fades fast. Thursday the 20th through Friday the 21st drops to 3.3-4.6 ft with onshore winds and poor conditions.

So what’s the one true standout? Honestly, if you’re an expert, the afternoon of Monday the 17th August. That glassy 9.8 ft SSW swell with no wind is a rare sight for Lyall Bay, but it’s a heavy, short-period beast. Don’t take the kids. For everyone else, the best of a mediocre bunch is Thursday afternoon, 6th August—small, clean, and light offshore.

Stay safe out there.

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