Lyall Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right from the start, the surf this week looks pretty average. The water is sitting at 57°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The best windows are going to be few and far between, so we’ve got to pick our moments.

We’re starting on Tuesday the 8th with a tiny 2ft, and the energy is weak, coming in at just 95. It’s glassy, but it’s not going to get the heart pumping. Wednesday the 9th isn't much better, with a small 2ft swell. There’s a light offshore breeze in the morning, but it goes a bit funky in the afternoon with a fresh 30 km/h offshore wind. Thursday the 10th looks messy. There’s a cross-offshore wind in the morning, and it gets blown out by the afternoon with a strong onshore wind and a short 5ft swell. That's not worth your time.

The first real sign of life comes on Friday the 11th. Early morning, we’ve got a clean 2ft with a long 18-second period. It’s a proper groundswell, and the energy is building to 335. The wind is a moderate offshore, so it should be clean. This long period is a hint that it might be breaking a little straight at Lyall Bay (Wellington), so you might have to hunt for the better peaks.

Saturday the 12th is where things start to get interesting. Morning is clean, cross-offshore, with a solid 3ft and the period still holding at 15 seconds. The energy is kicking up to 518. The afternoon brings a jump to 8ft and the energy rockets to 2157. It’s getting bigger, but the tide might make things a bit iffy.

Now, Sunday the 13th is the standout. The morning shows a clean 7ft southwest groundswell with a 13-second period and light offshore winds. The energy is big, at 1501. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The afternoon is just as good, glassy, with a 7ft and an energy of 1214. This is the day to be out there.

Monday the 14th is still very good. The morning has a 6ft with a 12-second period and a light offshore breeze. Energy is around 859. It’s a touch smaller, but still a quality day. The afternoon gets a bit windier, but it’s still clean.

After that, the winds start to build and things get messier. Tuesday the 15th sees the swell drop, and the wind gets stronger. By Wednesday the 16th, it’s dropping and turning onshore. Thursday the 17th looks blown out with a strong cross-offshore wind and the swell jumps to a stormy 10ft with a near-gale wind. That’s a messy, powerful beast – technically big, but with the wind howling, it’s not going to be fun for paddling. Honestly, that setup might be more interesting for the kite surfers than us.

Friday the 18th is a brief improvement, with a clean 5ft in the morning and light winds. That’s worth a look before the wind picks up again. The weekend starts bad and gets worse, with brutal near-gale winds and a messy swell on the 19th. We’ll be watching from the sand.

The last real opportunity in this window is a week-and-a-half out, on Monday the 21st. There’s a 4ft with a fresh offshore wind and a moderate energy, but it gets onshore later. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising but less certain. After that, the forecast just fades out, with small, mostly onshore or cross-shore waves. It looks like it’s going to trail off into poor conditions after that.

So, if you're going to get wet, make it Sunday the 13th. That’s the one. Saturday afternoon could be good if the tide lines up, but Sunday is the cleanest bet. Don’t sleep on Monday the 14th either.

Rusty

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