Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. Crab Island is the only spot in the mix, and the whole 16-day outlook is a real bummer. The water’s at 62°F, which is about a degree warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a minor plus. But the surf? Barely a ripple.

The forecast starts on Tuesday, July 28th, with a weak 5ft swell from the west-southwest, but it’s got a short period of 8 seconds and a strong cross-onshore wind from the southwest at 19 mph. The combined energy is 308 (moderate), but the wind is wrecking it – messy and lumpy. Not surfable. Wednesday the 29th is smaller, 4ft to 3ft, with onshore wind, poor conditions. Energy drops to 182 then 120 (weak to moderate). Thursday the 30th is similar, 4ft, cross-onshore, choppy. Friday the 31st, 4ft with 19 mph onshore wind. The entire first week is a washout.

Then we hit a gap. Saturday, August 1st, swell drops to 3ft, energy down to 79 (weak). Sunday the 2nd, a tiny 1ft in the morning, but the wind goes cross-offshore from the southeast and conditions turn clean. The afternoon sees a bit more energy, 4ft from the west-southwest with a 9-second period and 178 (moderate) energy – still clean, but the swell is small and inconsistent. This pattern of clean but tiny surf continues through Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th, with energy readings in the 25 to 77 range. Not enough to get excited about.

By Wednesday the 5th, the swell is gone – 0.7ft, 10-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore again. Thursday the 6th brings a 3ft, 4-second windswell from the north-northwest, energy only 34 (weak). Friday the 7th is glassy in the morning, with a 2ft, 5-second swell, still barely rideable. The afternoon sees a 3ft onshore bump, but it’s short period. Saturday the 8th is clean but tiny – 2ft, 5-second period, energy 33. Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th are hammered by strong winds – 28 mph from the southwest – with swell up to 3ft, but it’s messy and blown out. Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th are the last days, with tiny 1ft to 2ft swell and light winds, but the energy is well under 100.

There’s one brief standout, and it’s a quiet one. The afternoon of Sunday, August 2nd: clean, cross-offshore wind, 4ft swell from the west-southwest at 9 seconds, with 178 (moderate) energy. For a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the west, that’s the best window in a very flat run. But with only 4ft, it’s still small, and the crowd is often there, so you’ll have company. Still, if you’re desperate, that’s your moment.

Otherwise, the whole 16-day outlook is a long, flat spell. For an exposed reef like Crab Island, it’s not uncommon to see runs like this. Forecasts can change, but right now, the only thing worth paddling for is that Sunday afternoon. Keep an eye on the charts, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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