Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted is the word, folks. I’ve been staring at the charts for the next couple of weeks and it’s a proper slow burn. For a stretch here, the surf is just not happening. We’re looking at a big gap of flat, messy days from right now through to the start of next week. The few bits of energy we see are weak and chopped up, with cross-onshore winds doing their best to ruin anything. It’s a write-off, plain and simple.

The best of the first week is, honestly, not good. We see a pulse of moderate energy building into Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th, with swell from the W and WNW pushing up to 7 ft. But the wind is on it or cross-onshore, and it’s messy. That’s a “stay at home and check the webcam” kind of surf. Not worth the paddle.

There’s another weak kick around Thursday the 27th of August, where a bit of a longer period WNW swell shows up, but it’s still small and clean. The air gets glassy on the Saturday the 22nd, but there’s only 1 ft of swell. Painful.

Then, hold onto your boardies, because the 28th of August is where things go absolutely mental. We’re talking a massive, very strong energy reading of 11355 on Friday morning, with a 14-second period W groundswell stacking up to a solid 18 ft. The direction is right, the tide is right, but this is way, way too big for Crab Island. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s dangerous. The wind is clean, but it doesn’t matter when the ocean is that angry. The same goes for Saturday the 29th, with a still-too-big 12 ft on offer. This isn’t surf; it’s a survival mission.

So, what’s the one to pick out of the rubble? The standout, and I’m saying this with a lot of caution, is the Thursday afternoon of the 27th of August. We get a jump in swell to 7 ft from the WSW, the wind goes light and cross-off, and the energy jumps to 470. It’s still a week and a half out, so treat it as promising, not a promise. But it’s the only window with size and decent conditions before the ocean just goes nuts.

A quick word on the water: at Crab Island, it’s 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not a game-changer, but you might get away with a thinner suit.

So, there you have it. A long, flat stretch, one very promising but distant day, and then a monster swell. Keep your expectations low for a while and be ready to move if that Thursday window firms up.

Rusty.

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