Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. The next couple of weeks start slow, but there’s a real good spell waiting for us if we can wait it out.

Right now at Crab Island, we’re dealing with a rough run. From Friday the 3rd through the weekend, the wind is howling out of the southwest and west-southwest, mostly cross-on, making a mess of things. Swell is hanging around 4ft to 6ft, but with that wind, it’s lumpy and choppy. The combined energy is moderate, reading between 205 and 542, but it’s not doing us any favors with all that wind. Water temps are sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the water feels alright, but the surf is a write-off through Friday the 3rd, Saturday the 4th, and Sunday the 5th.

Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th are still pretty ordinary—waist-high swell around 4ft to 4ft, still with onshore or cross-on breeze. Not worth getting excited.

Then we get a little glimmer on Wednesday morning the 8th. The wind goes glassy, with a light 3 mph breeze from the southwest, and the swell drops to 3ft from the west at 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak, only 97, but those glassy conditions will make it look clean. It’s surfable but very ordinary—better for a longboard.

Thursday the 9th morning is similar: glassy again with a 3ft west swell at 10 seconds and 148 combined energy. Again, clean but small. Not a standout.

Now, hold on, because Monday the 13th is where things start to get interesting. The morning brings a clean 3ft swell straight out of the west with a solid 12-second period—that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is light offshore from the east at 3 mph, making it glassy clean. Combined energy jumps to 316. That’s a moderate energy reading and the surf is looking good. Monday afternoon bumps up to 4ft, still clean with a light cross-off breeze from the northeast. Tuesday the 14th keeps that momentum: 4ft to 5ft west swell, 10-second period, and a gentle offshore wind from the east and east-southeast. Combined energy sits at 343 to 361. This is the best run of the forecast—clean, offshore winds, consistent waist-to-chest high waves with good shape. This is the standout period for those who can get out.

Wednesday the 15th gets blown out by a fresh 18 mph offshore wind, which sounds good but it’s too strong and the swell drops back to 3ft or less. Not worth it.

Then we hit a real quiet patch from Thursday the 16th through Friday the 17th—tiny swell, under 2ft, with cross-shore and onshore winds. Combined energy is below 50. A proper lull.

But then, Saturday the 18th looks like a big pulse. The morning brings a 6ft swell from the southwest with an 11-second period—real groundswell. Combined energy is a huge 831, which is strong. The wind is a light 3 mph from the southeast, giving us clean conditions. That’s a solid chest-to-head high swell and it’s going to look good. Afternoon bumps to 7ft from the west-southwest, still 11 seconds, but the wind switches to a light onshore from the west-northwest. That size is getting into expert territory—over 8ft is for experts only, but 7ft is still manageable for strong surfers. Keep in mind, this is over a week away, so it’s promising but not locked in. If it holds, that Saturday morning session on the 18th is the highlight of the whole outlook.

So, bottom line: the first week is a wash. The real window is Monday the 13th through Tuesday the 14th for clean, fun waves in the 3ft to 5ft range with offshore wind. And if you’re an experienced surfer, keep an eye on Saturday the 18th morning for a bigger, more powerful swell. Crowds are often at Crab Island, so expect company on those good days.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the sky, and I’ll see you in the water.

Rusty

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