Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a stretch ahead for our spot, and I’ll be honest with you – it’s a rough run. This is a real waiting game, so don’t be in a rush.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, the pattern is grim. We’ve got a solid two weeks of poor surf conditions, with very few windows that even look surfable. The first decent opportunity doesn’t roll around until the 5th of August, which is a long, dry spell. From the 22nd of July right through to the 4th of August, it’s a total write-off. The swell is either tiny, the wind is howling onshore, or both. That’s a gap of about 13 days with nothing to recommend.

Let’s start with the one and only spot we’ve got: Crab Island. This is an advanced reef break, and it’s fairly consistent, but it’s exposed to swell from the west. The best direction for this setup is a clean west swell, and unfortunately, we just don’t get that in the right conditions for a long time.

The water temperature has been a touch warmer than normal, sitting at 62°, which is about two and a third degrees Fahrenheit above the average for this time of year. Not a huge deal, but a little unusual.

For the first week, from the 22nd through the 31st of July, it’s just one bad report after another. The swell is tiny – 1 foot to 3 feet – with periods all over the place, mostly under 9 seconds, which is weak, short-period windswell. The combined energy is very low, often in the teens (16) or just barely scrapping into triple digits (225) on the 25th, which is still just moderate energy. The biggest problem is the wind. It’s coming straight onshore or cross-onshore from the west and northwest, making it lumpy, choppy, and messy. For a reef break, that’s a nightmare. The 25th and 26th of July actually see some bigger swell, 5 feet to 6 feet, and the energy jumps up (624), but with 19 to 22 mph winds, it’s just a washing machine. Forget about it.

The 31st of July finally sees a shift with light offshore winds, but the swell is still a pathetic 1 feet, so it’s too small to do anything.

Then we get another blank stretch through the 1st to the 4th of August. Swell is tiny, winds are mostly onshore or cross, and the energy is barely above 20.

Finally, we get a glimmer of hope. On the 5th of August morning, we see a bit of a pulse. The swell is 2 feet from the west with a period of 11 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, and it’s got some energy behind it (116). The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the southeast. This is the only window that looks even remotely clean and surfable. The waves will be small, but that long period (11s) will give them some shape for a reef break. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but it’s still “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” If you’re desperate for a paddle, this is your only shot.

The 6th of August tries to pump up to 6 feet and 425 energy, but the wind swings back to cross-onshore, ruining it again.

So, who’s the standout? There’s no true standout here. The only real highlight is the 5th of August morning. It’s the only time the forecast gives us any chance of a clean, rideable wave. If you’re an advanced surfer who can make the most of a small, clean, long-period swell, that’s your moment. The break is an exposed reef, so it’s prone to holding that swell well, but it’s a one-off. For beginners, everything is too small, too big, or too messy. For the rest of the run, it’s a total bust.

Hang in there, folks. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a sleeping giant.

Rusty.

Read more