Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee and pull up a chair. Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Crab Island. It’s a bit of a tough one to call this time around, but let’s get into it.

The outlook for the next 16 days is pretty flat and quiet for the most part, with a couple of brief windows where things get a little more interesting. We’re looking at a long stretch of very small surf, then a late surge of energy that’s more about power than quality.

Saturday 18th July kicks off with not much to write home about. We’re talking tiny 0.7ft to 1ft of weak, short-period slop. The wind is cross-off in the morning, which is clean, but the swell is just too small to do anything with. The combined energy is a measly 13 in the morning, barely a ripple. It’s a write-off.

This pattern of small, weak swell continues right through the week. You’ll see mornings with clean conditions, but the swell is stuck between 0.7ft and 2ft. The wind is often cross-off from the NNE, which is nice, but there’s simply no energy. The combined energy values are all in the teens, twenties, and thirties – that’s well below the threshold for anything rideable. It’s flat, plain and simple. We’re looking at a solid week of nothing worth paddling out for.

Thursday 24th July afternoon shows a pulse of swell starting to build, but it’s a messy 5ft with a tiny 5-second period and onshore wind. The combined energy jumps to 106, which is moderate, but the quality is rubbish. The wind is onshore and strong, so it’s going to be blown out and choppy.

Friday 25th July is where the energy really picks up. The swell hits 5ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy climbs to 336–337. That’s a solid pulse of moderate wave energy, but the problem is the wind. It’s cross-on in the morning and then strong onshore from the WNW at 30 km/h in the afternoon. This is a case of too much power with poor wind. For a reef break like Crab Island, the size is getting into the advanced-only zone, but with the wind chopping it up, it’s going to be a mess. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

Sunday 26th July through to Tuesday 28th July keeps the size around 4ft to 4ft, with combined energy between 152 and 298. The swell is still from the west, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-on, which is a shame. The surf is there, but it’s not clean. It’s a frustrating stretch of waves that could be good but aren’t.

Wednesday 29th July morning finally offers a moment of relief. The swell drops to 3ft, but the wind goes cross-off from the NNE, giving us clean conditions. The combined energy is 89, which is still weak, but the forecast says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s not a standout, but it’s the best you’ll get all week. It’s an option if you’re desperate for a paddle.

The final week sees the swell fade back to tiny 1ft to 3ft. Saturday 1st August morning is notable for a rare moment of glassy conditions with a 3ft WNW swell, the combined energy at 115. It’s small, but if you’re on a longboard, that glassy morning could be a real treat. The crowd factor at Crab Island is “often,” so you might be sharing the water, but for a small, clean wave, it’s a fair trade-off.

Overall, the standout period is the late July pulse, but it’s let down by the wind. The only real highlight is that glassy morning on the 1st of August for a longboard session. Water temp is about 63°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit.

Rusty.

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