Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window for Crab Island is looking pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of no-go surf ahead, so don’t get your hopes up.

The first promising sliver of surf shows up on Friday morning, 10th July. It’s a small 3ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 11 seconds, giving it some decent push for its size. The wind is light and cross-off from the NNE at 6 mph, so it’s going to be clean. The combined wave energy is a weak 241, so it’s not exactly pumping, but it’s the only window where you’ll get a wave worth paddling for. The water temp is 60°, with a 0.9° anomaly – that’s pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

After that Friday morning window, it’s a long, dry run. From Friday afternoon, 10th July, all the way through to Saturday morning, 25th July, the surf is either too small, blown out, or messy. We’re talking days of 0.7ft to 2ft slop, with onshore winds or cross-off breezes that just don’t line up. The swell period drops off to 7 or 8 seconds, and the energy is in the gutter – readings like 19, 25, 34. It’s flat, it’s gutless, nothing to ride.

There is a spike in size around Monday, 20th July, with a 5ft to 6ft swell from the W, but the period is only 6 seconds – that’s short-period wind slop, and the wind is howling onshore at 18–22 mph. The combined energy climbs to 166 and then 259, but it’s a total mess. This is beach-and-reef setup, so with that strong onshore wind and short-period swell, it’s going to be choppy and lumpy. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The biggest pulse comes Tuesday, 21st July, with a 6ft swell from the W, period of 10 seconds, and energy readings of 524 and 455. That’s a solid amount of energy, but again, the wind is onshore from the W at 12–16 mph. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s too big for beginners, and with the onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. Not a standout.

The only true standout? Friday morning, 10th July, at Crab Island. It’s a small, clean window with light offshore-angled wind. The swell is from the WNW, which matches the optimum swell direction from the W. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, so you can expect a few waves. Just be aware crowds are often here, so you might be sharing the peak. Don’t get too excited – it’s the only real option in a 16-day outlook that’s mostly a write-off.

Rusty.

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