Tenby (South Beach) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what's shaping up for Tenby (South Beach) over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but there’s some real magic promised way out there.

Initially, we’re in for a flat spell. For the first week, from late August right through until the start of September, it’s just tiny and messy. The water is currently sitting at 66°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about all we’ve got going for us. There's nothing to get excited about; it's all poor surf conditions with small, weak waves. The combined energy is barely registering, often as low as 23 or 31 (weak). We do get a few cleaner moments, like Wednesday afternoon with that glassy feel, but the swell is just too small at 1.0ft to do anything with.

Tuesday 1st September morning finally brings a glimmer of hope. We see a pulse of 5ft swell from the WSW, with a gentle offshore breeze from the WNW. The combined wave energy jumps to 294 (moderate), and while the notes say it's only “surfable but very ordinary,” it’s the first proper sign of life. It’s a step in the right direction.

After that, the wind turns cross-offshore again, but the swell drops back. The real kicker starts building from Wednesday 2nd September, with a clean 8ft swell, though it’s accompanied by some fresh cross-offshore winds and rain showers. By Thursday 3rd September morning, we have a proper window. A 7ft swell from the WSW (9 seconds) combines with a light offshore breeze from the NW. The energy is up at 608 (moderate to strong) and the forecast points to “good surf conditions.” This is the first true standout, but at 7ft, it’s pushing into the limit for beginners.

The standout of the whole run, though, is Saturday 5th September. The morning shows a solid 8ft swell from the WSW with a 9-second period and a light offshore from the NNW. The energy is a hefty 971 (strong), and it’s forecast for “good surf conditions.” But it’s the afternoon that really steals the show. The swell holds at 8ft from the WSW, the period lengthens to 10 seconds, and we get a moderate offshore breeze from the NW. The wave energy jumps to 1042 (very strong) and the forecast calls for “very good surf conditions.” That’s the window. The swell direction matches the optimum SW direction perfectly, and with clean, offshore wind, Tenby will be at its best. Just be aware, at this size, it’s really for experienced surfers only.

Looking way out to Monday 7th September, the models are showing some serious numbers: a 16ft to 23ft groundswell with a massive 16-second period. The energy reading is astronomical at 23945 (very strong). It’s a long-range call, so less certain, but if it happens, with a strong offshore from the NNW, it will be a proper big-wave day for experts only. A swell this long-period tends to be best over a reef or point, so a beach break like Tenby might get a bit straight and critical.

The main event to circle on your calendar is Saturday 5th September. That’s the one that looks like a true standout with clean, offshore winds and a strong, well-directed swell.

Rusty.

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