Oxwich Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Oxwich Point.

Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for this one, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a tough run ahead. The forecast for Oxwich Point is pretty bleak for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long gap of flat, non-surfable days stretching right through the first half of the period. From Sunday the 12th all the way through to Friday the 24th, it’s basically a write-off. Swell is tiny, barely a ripple, with heights bouncing between 0.3 ft and 3 ft, and the wind is mostly cross-on or rubbish for this setup. The combined energy is barely a whisper, often in the low single digits or teens (28, 34, 59). The water temperature is 68° which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, about 9° above average – definitely a notable warm spike if you’re thinking of getting in the water, but there’s nothing to ride.

Then, things finally change on the 24th of July. We see a proper lift, with a Friday morning offshore wind from the NW at 22 mph and a clean swell of 3 ft. The energy starts to build (82), and by Friday afternoon, we’re seeing 3 ft at 7 seconds from the west, with clean conditions and a combined energy of 121. This is the first window that genuinely looks surfable, but it’s still small.

But the real standout, the one I’m watching closest, is on Sunday the 26th. An early pulse of strong swell hits on the Sunday morning – 7 ft from the WSW with an 8-second period. That combined energy jumps to 488 – that’s proper moderate wave energy, a wall of water moving in. The wind is cross-off at 22 mph from the WSW, so it’ll be clean. However, 7 ft is getting into solid territory, too much for beginners for sure. The period is short (8 seconds), so it’s windswell, not that long, lined-up groundswell. For a reef break like Oxwich Point, that short period might mean a bit of a crumbly wave, but the size and the offshore wind will make it a session. Sunday afternoon sees 6 ft and 652 energy, but the wind swings cross-shore and lumpy, which will chop it up.

Into the following week, Monday the 27th settles down to a cleaner 4 ft from the WSW, with gentler cross-off breezes – a decent option if the weekend was too big and raw for you.

So, if I’m calling it: the best surf on offer is absolutely the Sunday morning of the 26th of July. That 7 ft swell with clean wind is the heavyweight champion of this 16-day window. It’s not a perfect long-period groundswell, but for size and cleanliness, that’s your session. The Monday after is a good, smaller follow-up.

Crowds can sometimes be a thing at Oxwich Point, so for that Sunday, expect company if it’s looking good – and it will be.

That’s the long and short of it. A long flat, then a big one to wake you up. Stay sane, and don’t bother paddling out ’til the 24th.

Rusty.

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