Mother Ivey s Spot M Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here, and I’ve got to level with you – the next two weeks are looking pretty bleak around the Mother Ivey s Spot M area. The water is a warm 19°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so you’ll barely need a spring suit, but don’t let that fool you into rushing out.

What we’ve got is a long, drawn-out stretch of poor surf with nothing worth chasing for the first week. From August 12th through the 16th, the swell just isn’t there. Wave heights are stuck between 2 ft and 4 ft, with short, weak periods (7 to 10 seconds) and combined energy sitting mostly under 200 (125 to 269), so the ocean feels flat and unenthusiastic. The wind is a mess too – mostly cross or cross-on from the north and northwest, blowing 9 to 22 mph, turning the surface into chop. There’s no standout day in that stretch; it’s all poor conditions.

Then comes August 17th – Monday morning – with a tiny 1.0 ft, 7-second swell from the west and light offshore wind from the southwest. That’s clean, sure, but it’s barely a ripple with only 10 combined energy. The afternoon drops to 0.3 ft. Not worth the paddle.

Things try to pick up on August 18th (Tuesday) with 4 ft and 3 ft west swell, but periods are short (6-7 seconds), wind is messy, and the energy is just moderate at best (132, 78). Still a no-go.

August 19th (Wednesday) brings the first real bump in energy – 5 ft in the morning and 5 ft in the afternoon from the WNW, with 7-second periods and moderate to strong combined energy (233 to 275). The wind goes offshore and cross-off from the southwest and west, so the surf will be clean. Even so, the short period means the waves will be fat and weak, and with 5 ft, it’s borderline for beginners but still within reach for intermediates. I wouldn’t call it a standout.

August 20th (Thursday) sees the biggest swell of the whole run – 6 ft in the morning, 6 ft in the afternoon from the WNW, with combined energy jumping to 387 and 463. That’s strong energy, but the catch is the wind: strong cross-on from the north in the morning (19 mph) and full onshore from the northeast in the afternoon (22 mph). That’ll make it lumpy and blown-out. This is only for experts if they’re desperate.

After that, it fades. August 21st through the 23rd drop back to 1 ft to 4 ft, with poor to moderate energy and onshore or cross-on wind. August 24th (Monday) and 25th (Tuesday) bring a little cross-shore 4 ft and 3 ft, but it’s still short period and average.

Finally, on August 27th (Thursday), there’s 4 ft from the west with a 10-second period and 306 combined energy – the best period so far. The wind goes light from the west at 9 mph, clean offshore, so the surf will be lined up and glassy. This is your real standout. It’s still only 4 ft, so it’s fun for everyone, but not huge. If you wait for anything, wait for this day.

Overall, the only half-decent window is the 19th for clean but short-period waves, and the 27th for cleaner, more powerful surf. Everything else is a write-off.

Rusty.

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