Mother Ivey s Spot M Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The forecast for this stretch is a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a long wait ahead for the real good stuff, with a heap of ordinary, flat days in between. For the first week or so, the surf is pretty small and the wind isn’t your friend, so you’ll be fighting for scraps. But hold on, there’s a serious pulse of swell on the horizon that looks like it could be the one to make this whole period worth it. It’s a long-range call, so we’ll keep the hopes in check, but the potential is there.

With the first option we have, it’s a slow start. The swell is there, but it’s just not doing much. A 3ft swell from the WSW with a 7-second period is pretty weak and crumbly, and the 20 km/h offshore wind from the SW is not going to help it hold together. It’s a bit of a grovel, to be honest. The water temp is 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the full 5/4 just yet.

The next few days are a real write-off. The swell is tiny, dropping down to 1ft, and the wind stays cross-off or cross, which just makes it messy. The energy is weak, with values in the low 20s to 30s, so it’s not going to be worth getting wet for. We’re looking at a solid gap of a few days here with no real surf on offer.

We start to see a slight pulse on the 12th, with some 3ft swell and a 10-second period, but the energy is still low at 133. The wind is light and offshore, so it might be clean, but it’s still pretty small. The 13th and 14th see the swell push up to 5ft and then 6ft, but the period is short and the wind is mostly cross-off, which keeps it from being anywhere near good. The energy is picking up, hitting 335-346, but the quality just isn't there.

Then, we get to the 19th. This is the standout. The swell is up to 10ft out of the WNW with a 9-second period, and the energy is way up at 1480, which is strong. The wind is light and offshore, so the conditions look clean. This is a big, powerful swell, and it’s only for experienced surfers. The size is well over the 8ft mark, so the beginners are going to want to sit this one out. The afternoon sees it drop a bit to 8ft, but there’s a cross-shore wind that will chop it up a touch. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s a long way out, so we’ll see how it pans out, but the potential is there for a proper session.

So, the plan is simple: don’t waste your energy on the small stuff this week. Wait for that big pulse on the 19th. It’s a long-range call, but if it comes together, it’ll be well worth the wait.

Rusty.

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