Mother Ivey s Spot M Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight – I’ve combed through the next 16 days for Mother Ivey’s Spot M, and I gotta tell ya, the surf situation is grim. There’s no good surf on offer in this whole window. Zilch. Nada. Don’t get your hopes up. The guidance says this spot is fairly consistent and can handle a west swell, but the forecast just isn’t delivering.

We start off Friday the 10th with a tiny 3-foot west swell, period 9 seconds – that’s a middling groundswell, but the winds are cross-onshore and it’s all just poor. Water temp is 64°F, which is 4°F warmer than normal for July – that’s noticeably warm, so at least you won’t need a thick wetsuit, but there’s no waves to enjoy it. Saturday and Sunday are even smaller, with onshore or cross-onshore winds. The combined energy never breaks 100 in the first week – we’re talking weak dribble. Monday the 13th through the 20th? Same story: tiny heights, choppy, onshore winds. There is one brief moment Wednesday the 15th afternoon when the wind goes glassy – the swell is only 1 feet, period 9 seconds – glassy but flat. Not worth paddling out.

Then around the 21st and 22nd, we finally see a little pulse. Tuesday the 21st morning swell hits 5 feet from the WNW, period 6 seconds – short period windswell, not very organised. The winds are cross-offshore and it’s clean, but the wave comment still says “poor surf conditions.” The combined energy jumps to 173 (moderate). Still, not good. Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday show 4 feet from the WNW with 7–9 second periods, clean but very ordinary. The score is a 1 out of 10 – that’s generously described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That’s the best you’ll see, and it’s still pretty weak.

Thursday the 24th through Saturday the 25th we get a bit more size – 6 to 6 feet from the WSW/W, period 7–9 seconds. Combined energy peaks at 503 on Saturday morning (strong). Winds are cross-offshore and clean, but the forecast calls the conditions “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” That’s code for unsurfable unless you’re desperate. At that size (over 5 feet), it’s getting too big for beginners, and with short period and a beach setup (sheltered but no reef mentioned), it might be more fun for kite surfers than paddle surfers. But honestly, with the consistency and lack of quality, even that’s a stretch.

So, bottom line: Mother Ivey’s is a break that can fire when the west swell lines up with offshore wind, but that combo never happens in this outlook. A blank run like this – 16 days of basically nothing – is pretty normal for this area when the weather patterns are stubborn. Forecasts can change, but right now I’d save the wax and go do something else. Rusty.

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