Mother Ivey s Spot M Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up – we’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead for Mother Ivey’s Spot M. The whole of this outlook, from now through to the end of the period, is basically one big surf drought. For this sheltered little corner of the coast, a blank run like this isn’t unusual; it’s part of the deal when the swell windows close up.

Right out of the gate, Monday the 6th through the whole first week is all *poor surf conditions* with tiny waves. You’re looking at ankle-to-knee high stuff, mostly around 2 ft to 3 ft, all from the west. The combined swell energy is weak, down in the double digits (60-132) for most of that week, so there’s no power behind it. The winds are light and variable – some mornings are clean, but there’s nothing to push a wave. The water is sitting at 62°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won’t be needing a wetsuit to stare at a flat ocean.

That quiet stretch runs all the way through the second week, too. From the 13th right up to the 16th of July, it’s still the same story: predominantly onshore winds from the east and northeast, and swells barely registering – sometimes dropping to a pathetic 0.3 ft or 1.0 ft. There’s a brief moment on the 16th where the afternoon goes cross-offshore and clean, but with only 2 ft of W swell and a combined energy of just 45, it’s not even a dribbler. It’s a flat spell.

Now, things do finally change in the third week. Friday the 17th rolls around and we get a pulse of real swell – 5 ft from the west, with the combined energy jumping to a solid 386 (moderate energy). The period’s 9 seconds, so it’s a short period wind swell, not the cleanest groundswell. The wind is light and cross-on in the morning, and the afternoon goes cross-off from the northwest. Still, the forecast says *poor surf conditions*, so even with the size, the quality won’t be there for a proper session. Saturday the 18th builds even more – 7 ft to 6 ft from the WSW, and energy into the 480s (moderate energy). That’s a bit too much size for beginners, and the period is 8 seconds, so it’ll be fat and lumpy with a gentle cross-shore breeze. This is where I’d say for a paddle surfer, it’s a tough call; the way it’s setting up with that short period and cross-shore wind, the break might actually be more interesting for a kite surfer than someone on a longboard.

The biggest spike comes Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st. We’re looking at 8 ft to 8 ft of west swell, and the combined energy goes through the roof – 809 and then 1056 on Tuesday morning. That’s a strong, powerful swell. But the period stays short (8-9 seconds), and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, meaning big, messy, lumpy conditions. For experts only, and even then, the quality is still marked as *poor surf conditions*. On the 21st, with a cross-shore wind and that much swell, let’s be honest – it’s going to be a washing machine, not a wave face.

So, the honest word on any standout? There isn’t one. Not a single day in this 16-day window gets even a marginal nod of approval, other than a 1/10 on the 18th. The swell shows up eventually, but the wind and poor surf quality ruin it every time. If you’re itching for a paddle, keep an eye on the forecasts, because this area can come good, but right now, it’s a write-off.

Rusty.

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