Winkipop Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are shaping up as a real test of patience. We’ve got a long, flat, and pretty ordinary stretch ahead before a serious pulse of swell arrives right at the end of the window. If you’re keen, there are a couple of windows with clean but small waves, but the real action doesn’t kick off until the very end.

The water temp is sitting at 63°F, which is about 2°F cooler than the long-term norm for this time of year. Not a huge deal, but you’ll feel it on a long paddle.

First up, this week is all about waiting. From Tuesday the 18th through the end of the month, we’re looking at tiny, messy surf. The energy is weak, with combined swell energy values mostly in the low double-digits and barely scratching 100 at times. The wave heights are generally under 3ft, and the swell periods are short and crumbly, mostly in the 6 to 8 second range. Onshore and cross-shore breezes are going to chop things up, so the lineup is going to be a mess. There’s a brief window on Wednesday morning the 19th with a glassy surface and a light offshore breeze, but the swell is only 3ft and pretty weak. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working hard for not much.

The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd is even smaller, with wave heights dropping to 1ft – 1ft. Sunday morning the 23rd looks glassy and calm, but there’s barely a ripple to ride. The combined energy is still pitifully low, around 73. It’s not worth getting wet for unless you’re just desperate for a paddle.

The following week, from the 25th to the 29th, is a bit of a mixed bag. We finally see some cleaner conditions with offshore winds, especially on Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th. The swell picks up slightly to 3ft – 3ft, but the energy is still moderate at best. The combined swell energy is in the 100 – 130 range. It’s going to be clean and small, more of a longboard or funboard session. The swell direction is mostly from the ENE, which is a bit cross-off for Winkipop, so it won't be at its best. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the best of a poor bunch.

Then we hit the gap. From the 29th into the 30th, it goes flat and messy again, with fresh to strong onshore winds. This is where you need to be patient.

Now, here’s the light at the end of the tunnel. The real standout is Monday the 31st of August. A big, long-period southerly groundswell starts to roll in. The combined energy jumps to a very strong 1086 in the morning and 2487 in the afternoon. Swell heights are hitting 8ft to 8ft, with a 10-second period. The wind is cross-off and clean, which will keep the faces lined up. This is a solid, powerful swell for Winkipop, but it’s pushing into the too-big-for-beginners zone at 8ft. If you’re not confident, give it a miss. For the experienced crew, this is the one to circle.

The standout of the entire window is Tuesday the 1st of September. The morning is looking absolutely firing. A solid 12ft south swell with a 10-second period, combined with a moderate offshore breeze, is going to make for some very powerful, clean, and hollow waves. The combined energy is a strong 2194. This is a big, expert-only day. The size and power will not be friendly to the faint-hearted, but for those who know what they’re doing, this is the day.

Wednesday the 2nd of September is still pumping, with 7ft to 8ft of south swell and light, clean winds in the morning. It’s big and powerful, still in expert territory, but the energy is a bit more manageable than Tuesday. The afternoon sees the wind turn cross-shore and it gets a bit messier.

So, the plan is clear. Ride out the flat, small, and messy first couple of weeks. The quality options are almost nonexistent. Then, when the calendar flips to September, be ready. Monday the 31st is the warm-up, Tuesday the 1st is the main event. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising but keep your fingers crossed that the models hold. This is a proper winter swell for the point, and it could be something special.

Rusty.

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