Little Avalon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

Honestly, the next week and a half is looking pretty grim around here. We’re staring at a whole lot of nothing—flat, weak, and junky conditions at Little Avalon. From the 15th right through to the 24th, there’s just no real surf on offer. We’re talking ankle-biters and knee-high dribble, if that. A few mornings have that glassy look, which is nice, but there’s no push behind it. It’s one of those stretches where you’re better off tuning the board or going for a paddle, because chasing waves is a waste of fuel.

There is a gap of about ten days with nothing worth getting wet for. Then, on the 25th, we finally get a pulse. It’s small—waist to chest-high at best, with a bit of a NE swell pushing in around 3ft. The period’s short, only around 7 seconds, so it’s not going to have much power, but at least it’s something. That Friday morning, the wind is glassy and it’s clean, giving you a couple of makeable little walls. It’s not a standout, but it’s surfable, and after a week-plus of nothing, you take it.

Then the 26th shows a bit more life on the push, but the wind turns onshore out of the NE. Saturday afternoon sees the swell bump up to about 4ft, but it’s lumpy and onshore, so it’s not going to be pretty. You might find a sheltered corner, but honestly, it’s more frustration than fun.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The 27th through the 30th, we start seeing a real run of energy. Sunday the 27th has that NE swell holding around 4ft in the morning with a light WNW cross-offshore breeze. That’s the first real clean, ridable day we’ve had in a long time. It’s still not big, but it’s clean, and with the swell coming from the NE, Little Avalon’s got a bit of shape to it. The energy’s still moderate—around 116 in the combined swell energy—so it’s not gonna be a world-beater, but for a local, it’s a go.

Then things start to ramp up. The 29th brings a bigger pulse of NE swell, jumping to 6ft in the morning and pushing to over 7ft by the afternoon. The energy jumps way up—453 by Tuesday arvo—so there’s some real power behind it. But here’s the catch: the wind is fresh out of the SSE, cross-offshore, which is okay, but the period is only 6-7 seconds. That’s a short-period, wind-driven sort of swell, and at over 7ft, that’s pretty hefty for the average punter. This is getting into expert territory—over 8ft is a no-go for beginners, and at 7ft, you’re pushing it. It’s going to be lumpy, raw, and take some serious local knowledge to make the most of it.

Into the 30th, it’s still big—around 6ft—with that short period continuing, and a fresh SSE cross-offshore wind. The water’s going to be lumpy, but it’s clean with the wind off. Still, the quality is ordinary at best. Lots of push, but not a lot of shape. It’s more of a grunt than a glide.

So, looking at the whole 16-day window, there’s really only one true standout: Sunday the 27th. That’s your pick. Clean, glassy-ish, light offshore, and a wave that’s actually rideable without getting pounded. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and after the drought, that’s gold. The bigger stuff on the 29th and 30th is powerful, but short-period and messy—more for the chargers with a death wish than anyone looking for a fun session.

Water temp’s sitting at about 64°, which is about average for this time of year. No surprises there, just your typical autumn cool.

Stay patient, look for that Sunday morning window, and don’t get too worked up about the rest. It’s a lean stretch, but there’s a little nugget in there if you’re keen.

Rusty, out.

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