Noises Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer for the local lineup.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a lot of energy in the water, but the wind is playing havoc. This is a reef break that’s exposed to the swell, and it’s picking up a solid, long-period groundswell from the WSW and SW. The water is running at 68°F, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a real treat if you’re paddling out in a shorty.

The first few days are a write-off. Thursday the 6th through Sunday the 9th are all blown out with strong onshore and cross-onshore winds. The swell is huge – 13ft to 23ft – but with a fresh to near-gale wind, it’s just a mess. The combined energy is massive (8684 to 25704), but it’s not surfable for a paddle. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are still too big and too windy. We’re seeing 25ft swells with gale-force cross-onshore winds. The energy numbers are insane (up to 59887), but it’s a full-on washing machine. Only for the truly insane, and even then, it’s not clean.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Thursday the 13th. The swell drops to 15ft, but the wind is light onshore, and the conditions are only marginal due to tide. Still, it’s a step in the right direction.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday the 14th is the one to circle. The wind goes glassy – dead calm from the north and east-northeast – and the swell is a solid 13ft to 12ft from the SW, with a very long period of 16 seconds. This is a true groundswell hitting a reef break, and the energy is still hefty (6723). The conditions are exceptional for expert surfers. The only caveat is that with a period this long, the sets will be fat and rolling, which is perfect for this reef. Crowds are possible here, so get there early. This is the best on offer in the whole window.

After that, Saturday the 15th drops off with a smaller, onshore wind, and things get messy again from Sunday the 16th through Tuesday the 18th with strong winds and poor surf.

Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th are marginal with lighter winds, but the swell is still on the bigger side. The real last chance is Friday the 21st. The swell is 16ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, and the wind is a light cross-onshore. The energy is moderate (10165), and the report says it’s marginal, but a light cross-onshore can still be clean. It’s not the epic glass of the 14th, but it’s a paddleable option if you’re desperate.

So, bottom line: the first week is a washout. The one true standout is Friday the 14th – glassy, thumping SW groundswell, expert-only, but perfect reef conditions. The second week is patchy, with Friday the 21st as a possible backup.

Rusty.

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