Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The outlook starts a bit slow, but there’s some real promise hiding in the second week for Avalon-South.

The Overall Pattern
We’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands. The first run of decent surf doesn’t show until Monday morning the 20th of July, and even then, the quality drops off fast after that. After the 20th, things go pretty quiet – a long stretch of days with hardly any size or energy. It’s not until the very end of July and into August that we see a proper pulse of energy coming back. That’s the one to keep an eye on.

Monday Morning 20th July – The Early Highlight
Monday morning is where it’s at for the first week. Avalon-South is looking clean and fun. We’ve got a solid ENE groundswell running at 6 ft with an 11-second period. That’s a nice, long-period groundswell – it’ll have good shape and some punch, and the sets will be worth waiting for. The wind is glassy from the W at just 3 mph, so the surface should be like a mirror. Combined swell energy is a moderate 832 (moderate to strong energy). Water temp is about average for this time of year. It’s exposed enough to pick up that ENE energy, and with the glassy conditions, you’d be mad not to paddle out if you can.

The Drop-Off After Monday
But look, that quality doesn’t stick. By Monday afternoon the wind swings NE and picks up to 9 mph, turning cross-on and making things choppy. The swell holds okay at 6 ft, but the combo of onshore wind and a tricky tide (marginal rating) kills it. From Tuesday morning through to the end of July, it’s a long run of small, weak surf. Heights drop from 5 ft down to almost nothing – 1 ft, 1.0 ft, 0.7 ft – with combined energy falling into double digits (like 96 down to 6). The periods get shorter too, around 8 to 9 seconds. There’s a solid 8 or 9 day gap here with nothing worth chasing. Just a bunch of clean but tiny days with no power.

The Comeback – Sunday 2nd August & Beyond
Now, here’s the real standout. After that blank run, Sunday the 2nd of August morning looks very promising. A new groundswell from the SSE comes in at 4 ft with a very long 11-second period. The wind is light offshore from the WSW at 6 mph, so conditions will be clean and lined up. Combined swell energy jumps to 425 (moderate energy) – a big leap from the dead zone before it. This is the one to circle on your calendar. It won’t be huge, but with that period and offshore breeze, the waves should have some real push and shape.

Monday the 3rd of August morning keeps the momentum going with a similar SSE swell at 6 ft, but the wind goes a bit cross, so it might not be as clean as Sunday. Tuesday the 4th of August morning then offers another chance – 5 ft SSE swell, glassy NW wind at 3 mph, and combined energy of 522 (moderate energy). That’s a solid morning too, but it’s still a couple weeks out, so expect some forecast wobbles.

The Verdict
The clear standout is Monday morning 20th July for the first week – glassy, solid 6 ft groundswell. The only other one worth planning around is Sunday morning 2nd August, with that clean offshore wind and a quality SSE groundswell. The rest of the window is mostly flat or too small for a proper session.

Rusty.

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