Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s cut through the noise and get to what matters for the next couple weeks. The beginning is going to be a total bust, a real test of patience. We’re looking at a lot of tiny, weak surf and not much to get excited about.

Right around Wednesday the 5th, we have a glassy morning but with waves only about a foot high and weak energy (32). It’s just flat-out nothing. That vibe carries through the weekend. From Thursday the 6th through Monday the 10th, we see the swell meter move, but it’s all just knee-high slop. Mornings will be clean with offshore wind, but that’s a meaningless point when there’s no power. We’ll see a bump to about 4 feet on Sunday the 9th, but the period is short and the energy is weak. It’s not going to have any push. Monday the 10th sees a bit more size in the morning at 4 feet, but it’s still poor quality.

The middle of the week is more of the same. Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th offer up some 2-4 foot surf, but it's inconsistent and "ordinary" at best. The ocean is just going through the motions without any conviction. Then we drop right back down to 1-foot dribble for the rest of the week and into the next. Thursday the 13th through Saturday the 15th is a total write-off.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Sunday the 16th, a new swell pushes in, but it’s ugly. We’re looking at 6 feet of short-period SSE windswell, with a lot of energy (around 400), but it’s riddled with rain and onshore winds. The period is a dismal 7 seconds, making it lumpy and unrideable in my book. This setup at Avalon-South is going to be a messy, powerful crumble. It’s too big for the groms and too messy for anyone else. Honestly, that’s a day for kiteboards, not surfboards.

But then, the tide turns. Monday the 17th is the first day we get a glimpse of something good. The rain clears, the wind goes glassy, and we have 4-5 foot waves of SE swell. The energy is building (276 to 398) and the period is a workable 8-9 seconds. It’s going to be clean and a whole lot of fun.

And the pick of the entire run is Tuesday the 18th in the morning. We’ve got 6 feet of swell, a 10-second period, and the energy readings are cranking at a strong 629. With a light offshore wind, it’s going to be the cleanest, strongest, and most lined-up the break has looked. This is the one day to circle on the calendar. The afternoon sees the wind switch onshore and turn it into slop, so you’ll want to be out there early.

After that, we fade into small leftovers for Wednesday and Thursday. So, the plan is simple: sit tight, wait out the flat spell, and be ready for Tuesday the 18th. That’s your day.

Rusty.

Read more