Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s run through what’s happening at Avalon-South. Fair warning right up front—this forecast starts off real quiet. The first wave worth talking about doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 19th, and even then it’s nothing to call home about. That’s about a week of pretty much nothing.

The first few days? Forget ‘em. Wednesday the 12th morning has a tiny 2ft ENE swell with a 10-second period and weak energy (52), but it’s flagged as poor surf with a score of zero. Water temp’s about 64°, bang on average for this time of year, but there’s no surf to enjoy. Offshore wind keeps it clean but the swell’s just not there. Thursday and Friday stay small and get choppy with cross-onshore breezes.

Sunday the 16th sees a bump to 6ft out of the SSE, but the period is a lousy 6 seconds and the energy hits moderate (251). That short-period wind swell is messy, and it’s still rated poor. Not worth suiting up.

The first time you might actually want to paddle out is Wednesday the 19th morning. It’s glassy—dead calm, SW wind at 5 km/h—and there’s a 4ft ESE swell with a 7-second period and moderate energy (152). The report calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That’s the best so far, but it’s no blower. Thursday the 20th morning is glassy again with a similar 4ft ENE swell, also just ‘ordinary’.

Now, the real highlight: Sunday the 23rd. We’ve got a steady 4ft ENE swell with a nice 10-second period, clean offshore wind from the west at just 10 km/h, and wave energy building to strong (333 in the afternoon). The report says “expect good surf conditions” and gives it a score of 2—the highest in the whole run. Avalon-South is a beginner-friendly spot, fairly consistent and fairly exposed to this ENE direction, so those offshore mornings will be clean and rideable. Crowds can be a thing here—this break is ‘often’ busy, so get there early if you can.

Monday the 24th gets blown out by strong SSW winds at 25 km/h, and the energy drops. After that, the surf tails off. One to watch toward the end: Thursday the 27th afternoon has a solid 6ft NE swell, period jumping to 8 seconds, and energy surging to very strong (761), with clean offshore WNW winds at 20 km/h. The report gives it a high score of 3— “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a long way out, so consider it promising but not locked in. If it hits, that afternoon could be the best session of the lot.

So here’s the deal: it’s a slow start with the first decent wave around the 19th, but the standout is Sunday the 23rd morning. Keep an eye on that Thursday the 27th afternoon for a possible ripper. Until then, don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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