Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for Avalon-South over the next couple of weeks.

The first part of the period is pretty quiet. There’s a bit of swell showing from Thursday the 9th of July, with a 6ft SE swell at 10 seconds, but the wind is a cross-on SSE breeze at 18 mph, and the water is sitting at about 66°, which is average for this time of year. The energy is moderate (685), but honestly, conditions are marginal and choppy. Not worth paddling out for.

Things improve on Friday morning the 10th. The swell drops slightly to 6ft from the SE, but the wind swings to a light WSW offshore at 3 mph, and it’s clean. That’s the standout for the first few days – small but clean, and the energy is still moderate (566). Friday afternoon goes glassy with a 5ft SE swell (530), so that’s another good window if you can sneak out.

Saturday the 11th morning sees the swell drop to 3ft from the ESE, with a longer period of 12 seconds, and a light NNW cross-off breeze – clean and pretty. The energy is still moderate (407). But by Saturday afternoon, the wind swings cross-on and it gets choppy. Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th are tiny, with swell dropping to 0.7ft and energy down to barely anything (7). Not much doing.

Then from Tuesday the 14th through to Wednesday the 15th, it’s flat or near-flat. A gap of about three days with no real surf to speak of.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting but also a bit wild. From Thursday the 16th of July, a big pulse of SSE swell hits. Thursday morning sees 15ft at 10 seconds, with a cross wind and very strong energy (4233). The problem is, this break is for beginners, and anything over 5ft starts to get too much. By Thursday afternoon it’s 16ft, and Friday the 17th hits 18ft – the energy is enormous (up to 6555). The wind stays light to moderate, and the conditions are clean, but this is way too big for Avalon-South. The forecast even says it’s too big for this break. This is really only for the experts, and even then, it’s a beast. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th keep pumping 20ft swells (energy over 10,000), with glassy conditions on Saturday morning – absolute monster surf, but not for the average surfer here.

The real highlight for experienced surfers comes on Monday the 20th of July. The swell drops to a more manageable 10ft from the SE, with a period of 11 seconds and a clean cross-off NW breeze. The energy is strong (2363), but the wind is favourable, and the conditions are clean. Monday afternoon goes glassy with an 8ft SE swell (1700) – that’s the sweet spot. It’s still big, but it’s clean and well-shaped. This is the standout session for the whole outlook.

After that, Tuesday the 21st morning has a 6ft SE swell with a moderate offshore wind (751) – good for a paddle, but not as good as Monday. The rest of the second week drops off quickly, with smaller swell and cross-shore winds taking over. By Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th, there’s a bit of a 6ft to 6ft SE swell (439 to 518), but the wind is cross-off or cross-shore, so it’s only marginal.

So, to wrap it up: the first few days are small but clean on Friday and Saturday morning. The middle of the period is flat. Then a massive pulse of swell hits from the 16th, but it’s too big for this beginner-friendly break. The best on offer is Monday the 20th of July, when the swell drops to 8ft to 10ft, the wind goes glassy or clean offshore, and the energy is still strong. That’s your window.

Rusty.

Read more