Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Avalon-South.

Right off the bat, the next few days are looking pretty flat and ordinary. The water temperature is sitting at 67°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year – a bit of a nice surprise if you're having a paddle, but there's hardly any surf to enjoy it with. We've got a long gap here; from Friday 3 July right the way through to Sunday 6 July, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. Small, weak swells with poor conditions just don't cut it.

Things change pretty dramatically come Monday morning 6 July though. A solid SSE swell pushes in, hitting 8ft with a moderate 10-second period. The energy jumps right up to a strong (1110). The problem? A cross-onshore wind is going to chop things up, so while the size is there, the quality isn't. The forecast keeps these lumpy, messy conditions going for days. By Tuesday morning 7 July, the swell holds at 8ft from the SSE, and the energy is very strong (2147), with the wind shifting to a clean cross-offshore, making for much better conditions. Still, this is big – over 8ft is expert territory only, so don't be fooled into thinking it's for everyone. The period at 10 seconds is a solid groundswell, and combined with the size, you'll be looking at proper lines. Crowds are likely here too, so be prepared to share.

The best of the whole run looks like it could be Friday morning 10 July. We've got a still-juicy 7ft SSE swell (10-second period) with strong energy (1001), and the wind is a light cross-offshore. That's a recipe for clean, well-shaped waves, and the drop in wind makes a huge difference. It’s still a big swell for a beginner though.

After that, the surf backs down. Saturday 11 July morning offers a more manageable 5ft from the SE (368 energy) with a light offshore wind that’ll clean it up – a much better call for the intermediate crew. By Saturday afternoon, it's down to 4ft and glassy, but the conditions are described as just ordinary.

From Sunday 12 July onwards, the swell fades fast, and we're back into small, weak waves, and eventually a complete flat spell from Tuesday 14 July through Wednesday 15 July. There’s a tiny blip on Thursday 16 July afternoon with 4ft from the SSE, but with a 22 mph wind, it's more of a kite-surfing proposition than a paddle session. To be honest, the whole run after the 11th is a write-off.

Stay patient, that Friday 10 July morning is the one to circle.

Rusty.

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