Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a long, dry spell of tiny, weak surf ahead, and it’s going to test your patience. The first real chance of anything worthwhile doesn’t even show up until Sunday the 16th, and even then, it’s more of a glimmer than a green light. You’re looking at a solid week-plus of nothing but ankle-biters and closeouts, so if you’ve got a kite or a foil, that might be the better bet for a while.

To give you some context, the first spot we’d even consider, Avalon-South, is sitting in water that’s about 64°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. The ocean hasn’t got any fire in it.

The first week is a write-off. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th have a bit of energy, but the swell is a weak 3ft and 1ft respectively, coming from the southeast, and it’s just not doing anything. Tuesday morning actually cleans up with a light offshore, but there’s only 1ft on offer – not worth getting wet for. The whole first week is a series of poor surf conditions, with the swell barely cracking 1ft most days. There’s a small bump on Sunday the 9th, with 3ft to 4ft of short-period northeast windswell, but the wind is cross and messy, so it’ll be chopped up. Not your friend.

The second week starts with some hope on Monday the 17th. We finally see some proper energy – the combined energy hits 466 (strong) with a 5ft southeast swell. But the period is only 10 seconds, which is average, and the morning wind is light and cross. It’s a marginal call at best. Then on Tuesday the 18th, the morning looks the pick of the whole window. The wind goes glassy, the swell is a clean 3ft from the southeast, and it’s the first time the conditions really align. The energy is moderate at 170, and the lack of wind will make it feel bigger and cleaner than it is. This is the one to keep an eye on. The swell direction from the southeast isn’t the optimum for this spot (which prefers east-northeast), but the clean conditions will make it surfable. Just don’t expect a classic.

Before that, on Sunday the 16th, there’s a bit of a pulse with 4ft from the southeast, but the morning has a cross-offshore wind and the afternoon is onshore, so it’s not the cleanest.

So, bottom line: if you want to surf, wait for Tuesday the 18th morning at Avalon-South. It won’t be epic, but it’ll be the most user-friendly waves we see in a fortnight. Everything else is a skunk. This spot is fairly consistent, so it shouldn’t stay this poor for long, but this run is definitely a test of character.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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