Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into this long-range look for Avalon-South. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with a wild, big swell event mid-week that’s only for the brave, followed by a long quiet spell before some cleaner, more manageable waves creep back in. The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing too wild on that front.

We start off small and messy. Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th are a write-off. Tiny 1ft to 1ft swell, mostly cross-onshore or cross-shore winds, and combined energy is pitiful (13 to 20). On Monday the 6th, the ocean gets a serious kick in the pants. Swell jumps to 10ft from the SSE, with energy readings rocketing to 1487, but the wind is a messy cross-shore. The size makes it a no-go for beginners, and the conditions are lumpy. Not our day.

The real event, and the only true standout for a certain kind of surfer, lands on Tuesday the 7th. We’re looking at a solid 12ft swell from the SE, with a period of 11 seconds and combined energy of 2816. This is a powerful, moderate-energy groundswell, but it will be walled up and heavy. This is strictly for experts only; beginners stay well away. The cross-off wind early (Tuesday morning) suggests it might hold a cleaner face than the afternoon, but by the afternoon the cross-shore chop will make it a battle. The swell direction from the SE is a solid match for the optimum ENE direction for the spot, making it the peak of the period.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th see the swell dropping but still big, in the 8ft to 7ft range, with periods around 10 to 11 seconds. Winds stay cross-off, so it remains a heavy, expert-only wave set-up. The energy is still strong (1908 down to 861). By Friday the 10th, things start to calm down. An afternoon glass-off with 6ft SE swell and a 11-second period looks promising, with combined energy of 762. That’s a decent, clean window for a stronger intermediate.

After that, the pulse fades fast. From Saturday the 11th through to the end of the second week, the swell drops into the 4ft to 1ft range with very weak energy (73 and below). We run into a dry spell from around July 13th all the way through to July 18th. There are a few clean, weak days, but nothing worth paddling out for. The end of the outlook on July 19th offers a tiny glimmer: a 4ft to 5ft ESE swell, with a 13-second period and glassy conditions. Combined energy is 649, and the long period suggests it might wrap in nicely, but it’s a distant, uncertain prospect.

So, the standout is undeniably Tuesday the 7th. That big SE swell with the cross-off wind early is the peak of the period. Expect to see a proper, powerful ocean. Avalon-South can hold a crowd, and on a day like that, it’ll be busy with experienced locals. The crowd profile is a factor; you won’t be alone.

For the rest of the run, keep your eyes on the long-range forecast for the 19th. That one has potential, but it’s a long way off.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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