Avalon-South Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down the coming weeks for the surf.

The next sixteen days are a real rollercoaster. You’ve got a brief window of clean, small waves early, then a long stretch of poor conditions, followed by a promising pulse of groundswell right at the end. Patience is the name of the game.

Monday the 10th starts with rain showers and a 7ft ENE swell, but the wind is a stiff cross-off from the NNW at 22 mph, keeping it messy. The combined energy is moderate (691), and the water’s at 64°F, which is about average for this time of year. Not worth suiting up for.

Tuesday the 11th is your best early bet. Morning brings clear skies, a light offshore from the WSW at 9 mph, and the swell drops to 2ft from the NE. The combined energy is weak (86), but the wind is clean, and for a beginner-friendly break like Avalon-South, that’s the kind of small, tidy surf that’s fun on a longboard. The west wind keeps it glassy through the afternoon too.

From Wednesday the 12th through to Sunday the 16th, it’s a grim run. Swell drops to 2ft or less, the wind shifts around, and the energy is weak (down to 18 in the afternoon of the 14th). The conditions are mostly poor, with a few sessions marked as “surfable but very ordinary.” There’s a brief uptick on Saturday the 15th with a short-period 3ft SSE swell, but the wind is cross and sloppy. Not much going on.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th see a bit more size – 4ft to 6ft from the ESE – but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the combined energy is moderate (up to 374). The period is short (7-8 seconds), meaning weak, chopped-up waves. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Wednesday the 19th is still marginal, with 5ft to 5ft ESE swell and light cross-onshore winds. The energy is moderate (438-487), but the quality’s not there.

Then we get to the standout. Thursday the 20th morning: clear skies, a light offshore from the WSW at 3 mph, and a 4ft ENE swell with an 8-second period. The combined energy is moderate (355), and the conditions are clean. This is the best of the first two weeks – small, clean, and offshore. Friday the 21st morning is also good: glassy, 5ft E swell, calm wind, and energy (277). Clean waves for the morning session.

But the really interesting stuff arrives late. Monday the 24th through Tuesday the 25th. On Monday the 24th, we get a 6ft SSE swell with a 9-second period, combined energy strong (888), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the NW at 13 mph. The water temp is still around 64°F, normal for the season. Then Tuesday the 25th morning is the big one: a 5ft E swell with a long 12-second period, combined energy strong (790), and a light offshore wind from the SW at 9 mph. That’s groundswell with real push, and the conditions are clean. This is the one to circle – promising, but it’s 15 days out, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

To wrap it up: Tuesday the 11th for a longboard in clean, tiny waves; Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st mornings for clean, small surf; and Tuesday the 25th morning is the standout for better quality groundswell. The long stretch from the 12th to the 16th is a write-off, and the 17th-18th are better for kites.

Rusty.

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