Avalon-North Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Avalon-North.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this is one of those stretches where the ocean just ain’t cooperating for a good chunk of the forecast. We’re lookin’ at a real quiet start, with hardly anything worth paddling out for through the first week and a half. The good news? There’s a little glimmer of hope right at the tail end of this 16-day run, but you’re gonna need some patience.

From now through most of August, the swell is tiny – we’re talkin’ knee-high dribble at best, with short, weak periods under 8 seconds and combined energy mostly down in the weak zone (values like 16 to 112). The wind is often on it or side-on, and the reports just say "poor surf conditions" again and again. There’s a glassy window on Wednesday morning the 19th, but the swell is only 2ft from the ESE at a 10-second period, so it’s surfable but very ordinary. You might get a clean little wave on Thursday morning the 20th with a light cross-offshore wind, but again it’s small – 2ft.

We go through a long dry spell. Saturday the 22nd, forget it – 1ft. The whole next week is similar, with tiny swell and not enough push. The water temp is sittin’ around 63°F, which is near enough to average for this time of year, so nothin’ wild there.

Then, on the morning of Wednesday the 27th of August, we finally see a pulse. The swell jumps to 6ft from the NE, with a 7-second period. The combined energy hits a strong 593 (moderate-to-strong), and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SW at 15 mph. The report says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the standout. It’s not a monster, but for a stretch that’s been almost flat for days, this will feel like a proper session. Remember though, it’s still a short-period swell, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and less organized than a long groundswell, but for a point break like this one, it should line up alright. The afternoon turns onshore, so get it early.

After that, the swell backs off quickly – Friday the 28th is 3ft and clean but ordinary, and by Saturday it’s back down to 1ft. The very end of the forecast into September is small again.

So the short story: wait it out. If you’ve got a board you don’t mind paddling around on tiny days, the glassy Wednesday the 19th or the clean Thursday the 20th might give you a few fun ones, but the real go is Thursday morning the 27th of August. That’s your best bet. The rest is a whole lot of nothin’.

Rusty.

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