Long Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee, let’s have a look at what’s coming up. I’m Rusty, and I’ve got the long-range picture for Long Reef.

First thing’s first – the start of the outlook is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a few days of tiny, poor surf to kick things off on Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th, with little swell and messy conditions. Nothing worth paddling out for there. That energy is so weak it’s barely registering (combined energy values in the 40s to 15 range). You’re not missing a thing.

Now, things finally wake up on Wednesday the 15th. We get a solid pulse of swell from the south, pushing 8ft, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a massive 1793 (moderate-to-strong), so there’s proper power in the water. The good news is the water temp is sitting at 65°F, which is about average for this time of year, so not a shock to the system. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SW in the morning, making for good shape on this reef break. But here's the catch – this is an advanced-level wave at a reef, and at that size it’s only for the experienced crew. Not a day for learners.

Wednesday afternoon, the wind shifts cross-onshore and the quality drops off, so if you can only get one session, make it the morning.

The rest of that week and into the weekend (Thursday 16th through Sunday 19th) stays mixed. Swell drops, and we get a lot of cross-shore or onshore wind, rough conditions, and only marginal surf at best. Saturday and Sunday look particularly average with shifty winds and weak swell. The combined energy values are low to moderate (between 130 and 446), and the short period (8 seconds or less) means it’s not going to hold its shape well on the reef.

We then hit another quiet spell from Monday the 20th through to Sunday the 26th. There’s little to no decent swell, and most days have poor or marginal surf with weak energy. Not worth getting excited about.

Right, now the standout. The best window in the whole 16 days is Sunday the 26th into Monday the 27th. On Sunday the 26th, we get another S swell filling in, hitting 8ft by the afternoon with a combined energy of 767. The wind is a fresh offshore from the west at 19 mph, which will be super clean and lined up. At that size it’s expert territory, and it could be big and grunty. Monday the 27th keeps that clean offshore flow, with swell still solid at 8ft and 679 combined energy, making for some excellent, powerful waves. This is the pick of the forecast.

The tail end of the outlook, into Tuesday the 28th, keeps smaller but clean conditions with a 5ft to 6ft swell and light offshore winds. It’s a fun little run-out if you want a quieter session.

So overall, don’t bother for the first week unless you’re an expert keen on Wednesday morning, but circle the 26th and 27th of July – that’s the only proper kicker, and it looks like a quality S groundswell with clean, strong offshore winds. Just be ready for a challenging reef wave at that size.

Rusty.

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