Backdoor 4 Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here. We’ve got a mixed bag of a forecast for the next couple of weeks. The first few days are a write-off, but there’s a couple of windows that could be worth a look if you’re patient.

Overall Pattern

The week kicks off with a flat spell. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are basically a no-go with tiny, weak swell and unfriendly winds. We’re talking about a frustrating few days where the ocean just isn’t cooperating. The first real chance of anything surfable comes Thursday morning, the 6th, but it’s not going to set the world on fire. The real standout action is looking like it’s a long way off, around the 14th and 15th of August, but that comes with a major caveat for Backdoor 4.

Thursday 6th August – Monday 10th August

Thursday morning the 6th is the first time we see a pulse of energy. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. We’ve got a 3 ft south swell rolling in with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate at 106. The real winner here is the wind – glassy, absolute perfection. The waves will be small, but clean. By Friday the 7th, the swell stays similar at 3 ft from the south, but the energy picks up a bit to 123. The morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze, and by the afternoon we get a proper offshore wind from the SSE, making for some tidy conditions. Saturday the 8th morning is also glassy, but the swell has dropped to 2 ft. The energy is back down to 88. Small, clean, but very small. Honestly, none of this is a real standout. It’s just getting your feet wet.

The Big, Bumpy, and Dangerous

Now, let’s talk about the main event. Friday the 14th of August. A massive 8 ft south swell is forecast to hit, with a period of 9 seconds and a combined energy reading of 1143 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. This is a serious amount of water. The wind is onshore in the morning, which is a mess, but the biggest problem is the size. At 8 ft, this is strictly for experts only. It’s too big for most, and the reef at Backdoor 4 is not going to be forgiving. This is a big, powerful, dangerous day. Do not go near it if you’re not a pro.

The Silver Lining: Saturday 15th August

The best of the bunch looks like Saturday the 15th of August. The swell has dropped to a much more manageable 5 ft from the south, with a period of 8 seconds and a combined energy of 372 – still strong, but not life-threatening. The wind is forecast to be light and offshore from the SSW. This is the key. Clean, offshore wind and a solid head-high swell. The water is still cool, but the conditions are shaping up for a proper session. The crowd profile for Backdoor 4 is ‘sometimes’, so expect a few others in the lineup, but it’s a well-known spot. This is one to circle on the calendar. The swell direction is from the south, which is right in the pocket for this exposed east-facing reef, so it should be firing.

The Rest of the Week & Beyond

Sunday the 16th is still rideable, with 4 ft of south swell, but the wind swings onshore with rain showers, making things messy. After that, the swell drops back down to ankle-snappers for the final days of the forecast period. The 17th and 18th of August look like small, clean days with 2 ft swell, but nothing to get excited about.

Summary

If you can wait, target Saturday the 15th of August. That’s the day the stars align: a decent south swell, clean offshore wind, and a size that’s fun for the experienced surfer. The 14th is a monster that’s only for the brave. The rest of the time, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more