Freshwater and Harbord Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Well, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty slim for decent waves around here. The forecast is a long, flat stretch, and it’s going to test your patience if you’re keen for a paddle. We’re looking at a big gap of nothing until the early part of next week, so don’t hold your breath just yet.

The long-range picture shows the best of the action coming in on Thursday the 18th and Friday the 19th, and even then, it’s not going to be epic, but it’s the only real window we’ve got. The near-term stuff is basically all noise and no signal – small, weak, and mixed-up.

Let’s walk through it. This first week is dead. From the 6th through the 11th, there’s just nothing doing. The swell is tiny, barely cracking 1 ft to 2 ft, and the period is short and junky. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so any little bump that shows up is going to be chopped and messy. The combined energy is in the low double digits (31, 18, 10) – that’s weak as water. You’d be better off doing something else.

There’s a spike of energy on the 8th – we see an 8 ft swell at 9 seconds from the SSE, with combined energy hitting 896. That sounds big, but the wind is a cross-onshore 12 mph from the south, and the comment says “poor surf conditions.” That size with that short period is going to be a close-out mess, probably too much for beginners and not much fun for anyone else. That’s a miss. The energy drops back down again after that, and we’re back to the flatness through the 9th, 10th, and 11th.

Finally, we get a little glimmer on the 12th and 13th. The swell is still tiny – around 1.0 ft to 1 ft – but the period starts to stretch out to 19 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, even if it’s small. On the morning of the 12th, the wind is glassy (slight air, 3 mph from the SSE) and the energy is a bit healthier at 89. It’s described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Same story on the morning of the 13th: clean with a light cross-offshore, period still up at 19 seconds, and energy at 134. These mornings are probably your best bet for a longboard or a funboard, just catching a few tiny ones. But it’s not going to win any awards. The crowds here, by the way, can be a problem – it’s listed as “often” busy, so you’ll have company.

Then we drop off again. The 14th, 15th, and 16th are mostly wind-affected or just plain weak. The morning of the 15th has some clean conditions with a light offshore, and the period is 13-12 seconds, but the swell is only 1 ft to 2 ft. Underwhelming.

Now, here’s the standout. The 18th and 19th. This is the one to circle. The wind finally goes offshore – a solid 16 mph from the west-northwest, which is exactly what you want. The swell comes up to 5 ft out of the SSE with a period of 10 seconds. Combined energy is up to 356 and 385 – that’s decent power, moderate energy for sure. The comments say “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” but with the offshore wind cleaning it all up, this is far and away the best looking stretch of the whole window. Freshwater (Freshwater) is sheltered, and this westerly wind will be groomed perfectly. The SSE direction isn’t the absolute optimum for this break, but the wave quality from the offshore wind will make up for it. The 19th is a bit smaller (3 ft and 3 ft) with lighter offshore winds, still good, but the 18th looks like the pick of the two.

After that, it’s back to small and uninspiring for the 20th and 21st. There’s a morning on the 20th with a clean offshore, but the swell is tiny. Nothing more to see here.

Overall, it’s a pretty grim outlook for the next two weeks. The long-range dates for the 18th and 19th are the only real highlight, and even that’s a modest one. For a spot like this, a blank run like this is pretty normal – it tends not to stay poor for long, so keep an eye on the forecasts. The best advice I can give is to wait for the offshore wind days and get in the water when it’s clean, even if it’s small.

Rusty.

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