Manly-North Steyne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you straight up – the next couple of weeks are a real grind for Manly-North Steyne. This is one of those periods where you’ll be better off checking the cam from the couch more often than not. There’s no standout swell window, and we’ve got a long, dry spell of tiny, choppy junk before anything remotely rideable shows up.

We kick things off on Friday the 14th of August, but don’t get excited. There’s a tiny 1ft swell out of the ENE with a period of 10 seconds, but the wave energy is weak (31) and the conditions are poor. The water temp is sitting at 62°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. Friday afternoon goes cross-onshore and choppy, and Saturday the 15th is just as bad with rain showers and cross-shore winds. Sunday the 16th sees a bump in swell to 5ft from the SE, but the period is a short 7 seconds and it’s cross-shore with a moderate chop – the combined energy is moderate (214), but it’s just messy. Monday through Thursday of the following week are all poor, with small, weak SE windswells and onshore or cross-shore wind. Honestly, from Friday the 14th right through to Thursday the 21st of August, it’s a write-off – a solid week of near-zero surf.

Then, we get a tiny glimmer. Wednesday morning the 19th of August, the wind goes glassy – a light SW at 6 mph. The swell is 4ft from the ESE, but the period is still only 7 seconds, so it’s a short, weak groundswell with moderate energy (227). It’s surfable, and glassy conditions are a major positive, but the quality is only ordinary. Thursday morning the 20th is glassy again with a NNW breeze, same 4ft ESE swell, but again, very average. The real highlight of this whole bleak outlook is Friday the 21st of August. In the afternoon, the wind drops to zero – absolutely glassy – and the swell is 4ft from the E at 7 seconds. The energy is moderate (132). It’s not going to be pumping, but for a beach break like this, a completely glassy surface with a bit of wave height is the best you’re going to get. That Friday afternoon window is the pick of the bunch, but it’s a low bar.

After that, we drop back into tiny 0.7ft to 3ft leftovers through the 22nd to the 26th of August, all with clean winds but just no size. Then, on Thursday the 28th of August, we see the first real pulse of energy. A long-period SE groundswell sneaks in during the afternoon, pushing 3ft at 13 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a moderate 228, and the wind is fresh cross-offshore at 19 mph, keeping it clean. This is a taste of what’s to come. The best of the whole forecast lands on Saturday the 29th of August. We get a solid 8ft SE swell, but the period is a short 9 seconds, so it’s a windswell rather than clean groundswell. The energy is strong to very strong at 947, and the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph from the SSE. At 8ft, this is expert territory only – too big for beginners and will be a handful. The cross-shore wind will put a chop on the face, so expect a battle. For a beach break, that combination of size and cross-shore wind might actually be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s the biggest swell of the window, and the only one with significant grunt, but the quality is marginal.

So, to sum it up: if you’re desperate for a paddle, aim for Friday the 21st of August in the afternoon for that glassy, clean, but small surf. If you’ve got the skills and the nerve, Saturday the 29th of August has the most size and power, but expect it to be a messy, challenging session for experts only. Otherwise, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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