Lakes Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next week and a bit is looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf ahead, with the first real glimmer of hope not landing until Thursday the 13th, and even that one’s got question marks. For the most part, we’re looking at small, weak swell and a lot of cross-shore wind. There’s a solid run of days from the 10th to the 12th where the swell is just gutless – nothing over 3ft and energy readings in the low 100s, which is weak. It’s a real flat spell, so don’t be surprised if the lineup is empty for a while. Keep the hope, though, because this run of poor conditions tends not to last forever.

Now, Thursday the 13th is where things start to get interesting, and it’s the pick of the first week. We’ve got a pulse of south swell pushing in, with the morning already showing 6ft at 8 seconds and a moderate energy reading of 554. But the real standout is the afternoon: the swell jumps to 7ft at 10 seconds, with energy hitting 893. That’s a moderate-to-strong push. The wind is light from the SSE, so it’s not perfect glass, but it’s clean enough. The catch? This break is a sandbar setup at Lakes Beach (Lakes-Beach), and 7ft is getting big for it. The forecast actually says it’s too big for the break, so while the energy is there, it might be a bit of a handful. Still, if you’re an advanced surfer, this is the best chance in the first week to get something with a bit of grunt.

Friday the 14th is a fallback, but it’s a big step down. The morning is glassy with a light WSW breeze, and the swell is 5ft from the south at 8 seconds, but the energy is only 336, which is moderate at best. The period is short, so it’s going to be a bit crumbly. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. The rest of that weekend just turns to mush with onshore winds and chop.

Now, the long-range stuff. The second week holds the real promise, and Thursday the 20th is the one to circle. It starts with a *completely* glassy morning, a light SSW breeze, and a 6ft south-east swell at 8 seconds. The energy is 499, which is solidly moderate. That’s clean, lined-up surf on the sandbar. It’s a proper standout. The afternoon picks up to 7ft, but the wind swings onshore and it gets too big again, so get out there early.

But the true gem of the whole window is Saturday the 22nd. The morning is glassy with 6ft of east swell at 10 seconds, and the energy is a strong 755. That’s a clean, powerful wave. The afternoon bumps it up to 7ft with energy at 946, but the wind turns cross-onshore, so the morning is the time to go. This is the pick of the whole 16 days.

The last day, Monday the 24th, is also excellent. It’s 5ft from the east with a long 12-second period, energy at 1123, and it’s glassy. That’s a high-quality groundswell, ideal for the sandbar. Just remember, long-period swell like this can break a bit straight at a beach break, but the conditions are so clean it should still be epic.

One more thing on the water temps. The first break we mentioned, Lakes Beach, has water temps that are about average for the time of year, so nothing weird there. A solid 1-2 degree anomaly is notable, but we’re not seeing that in this window.

So, to sum it up: don’t get wet until Thursday the 13th, and even then, be careful. The middle of next week is the real deal. Get that Thursday the 20th morning and Saturday the 22nd morning booked in. That’s where the magic is.

Rusty.

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