Lakes Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Lakes Beach over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, you’re looking at a pretty grim start. The first solid week is mostly a write-off with tiny, messy waves and onshore winds. We’ve got a little bit of something on Tuesday the 11th, but it’s not until the arvo of Wednesday the 13th that things get seriously interesting. But then, hold on to your board – it’s going to get huge.

This week (Thursday 6th – Wednesday 12th)
The first few days are a struggle. Thursday arvo has a weak 3ft S swell with a short 8-second period, and a light onshore breeze on it. Friday morning is a touch cleaner with a 2ft SSE swell but it’s small and ordinary. Saturday morning on the 8th sees a brief moment of calm winds and a 2ft S swell, but the energy is weak (96) and it’s not going to be much fun. Sunday and Monday are a write-off with messy, onshore winds and poor conditions. The combined energy is still low to moderate (156-224), just not good.

The standout window (Tuesday 11th – Friday 14th)
Tuesday morning the 11th shows a bit of life with a 6ft S swell, 10-second period, and clean cross-offshore winds. The combined energy jumps to 624 (moderate), but it’s still a bit rough. The real turning point is Tuesday arvo: 5ft S swell, 9 seconds, glassy cross-offshore wind, and a 3/10 score for surf quality. It’s not massive, but it’s the first clean, rideable wave we’ve seen.

The big one – Wednesday 13th to Friday 14th
This is where it gets wild. Wednesday arvo the 13th, a massive 13ft SSW groundswell rolls in with a 12-second period, and the wind is fresh and offshore. The combined energy hits a staggering 7131 (very strong). This is a serious, powerful swell. But – and it’s a big but – this is too big for Lakes Beach. The data says it’s too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. If you’re a kitesurfer, this setup looks more interesting than paddle surfing. Thursday the 14th stays enormous with 12ft S and SSE swells, but the wind goes cross-shore, making it a lumpy mess. The energy is still immense (3803, 2962). Again, too big for this break.

The tail end (Saturday 15th – Friday 21st)
Saturday the 15th still has a solid 10ft S swell, but the wind is cross-offshore and strong. It’s still too big for a comfortable paddle session. By Sunday the 16th, the swell drops to 5ft SE, but the wind is fresh and cross, making it lumpy. The rest of the week sees a steady decline, with small 2ft-4ft SE swells and onshore or cross-shore winds. Honestly, from Sunday arvo onward, it’s back to small, poor conditions. The 20th and 21st are flat with barely any energy (64-81).

The best of the lot?
If you’re determined, your best bet is Tuesday afternoon the 11th at Lakes Beach. It’s clean, small but surfable with a 5ft S swell and light offshore wind. The combined energy is 531 (moderate), so it’s got some push. It’s fairly consistent, and with the crowds being “sometimes” you might get a few waves to yourself. The water temp is 64°, which is about normal for this time of year.

After that, the big swell on Wednesday the 13th is a spectacle, but it’s not a paddler’s wave. If you’re a pro, you might have a look, but otherwise, keep the board in the car.

Stay safe, watch the horizon, and don’t be a hero in that 13ft stuff.

Rusty

Read more