Lakes Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and settle in, this is a long one. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Lakes Beach. It’s a bit of a wild ride this forecast, so let’s break it down.

The next couple of days are a no-go. We’re looking at a massive pulse of energy hitting the beach right off the bat. Tuesday afternoon the 7th of July, we’ve got a solid 12 ft swell from the SSE, with a combined energy of (3046) – that’s a serious amount of power. But the wind is a cross-off from the south at 19 mph, and honestly, for a beach break like Lakes, that size is just too much. It's advanced territory only, and even then, it's going to be a handful. The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

Wednesday the 8th doesn’t let up much. Still big, with 8 ft and 8 ft swells through the morning and afternoon, and the energy is still very high (1853 and 1567). The wind is a bit lighter, but it’s still cross-off and the swell is still predicted to be too big for this break. We need to wait for it to drop.

The first real window of opportunity opens up on Thursday morning the 9th of July. The swell has dropped to a more manageable 7 ft from the SE, and the combined energy is down to a moderate (945). The wind is a light breeze from the SSW, making for clean conditions. This is where it starts to look good. The morning and afternoon both have clean surf, with the swell dropping to 6 ft in the arvo. This is the best bet for the first week, but remember, at 7 ft, it’s still a bit too punchy for beginners.

Friday the 10th of July is a standout. In the morning, we get a glassy offshore wind from the WSW at just 6 mph, with a 5 ft swell from the SE. That’s clean, lined-up waves. The energy is moderate (476), and the wind is perfect. This is the best session of the whole forecast. The afternoon is a bit meh with a light cross-shore, but the morning is the one.

The weekend sees the swell drop off. Saturday the 11th is small, with 4 ft and 3 ft waves, and the wind is a bit messy. Sunday the 12th is even smaller, with 2 ft to 2 ft. Not worth a paddle.

Then we get a real lull. From Sunday the 12th through until Tuesday the 14th, the surf is tiny and poor. The combined energy is under 100, and the wind is all over the shop. It’s a proper flat spell.

We get a bit of a pulse mid-week. Wednesday the 15th of July has a clean 5 ft swell from the south in the morning, with a light offshore wind. The energy is moderate (690) and the waves will be clean. That’s a good option.

But the real standout in the second week is Thursday the 16th of July. The morning session is a monster. A 5 ft swell from the south, but with a very long period of 16 seconds (groundswell), and the combined energy is a massive (2151). The wind is a light offshore from the WSW. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers, but that long period means it will be a bit straight and fast on the beach, so it’s going to be a proper challenge. The afternoon gets bigger at 8 ft, which is too big again.

The following Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th of July offer clean morning sessions with 6 ft and 5 ft swells, but the wind is cross-off. Good, but not a standout.

After that, the forecast gets messy again. From Sunday the 19th through to the end of the forecast on the 22nd, the wind is strong and the swell is small and inconsistent. A few marginal mornings, but nothing to get excited about.

So, to wrap it up: the best session on offer is Friday morning the 10th of July. It’s a 5 ft swell from the SE, with a glassy offshore wind from the WSW. It’s clean, it’s rideable, and the energy is good. The second best option is Thursday morning the 16th of July for the experienced crew, with that long period groundswell and offshore wind, but it’s a more technical wave.

Rusty.

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