Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted to be the one bringing you this one, folks. The 16-day window is looking pretty bleak for Crab Island. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak surf and mostly average to poor conditions. There’s a bit of a pulse of energy mid-period, but it’s nothing to get excited about. Let’s break it down day by day.

We start the run with almost nothing. The opening weekend is flat and messy. Saturday the 15th has some knee-high slop at 1ft, but the wind is blowing cross-off at 12 mph, chopping it up. Sunday the 16th will be glassy in the morning thanks to no wind, but there’s still no real swell to push through. The first few days are honestly a write-off. The energy is weak, with readings down around 20 to 40 in the brackets.

The middle of the week sees a small lift in size, but not in quality. Around Tuesday the 18th, the swell bumps to 4ft, and there’s a bit more push in the water (105 energy), but the wind is all wrong. It’s cross-shore all afternoon, making it lumpy and difficult. This pattern holds through Thursday the 20th. Morning sessions are the only real chance, with light cross-off winds, but even then, the waves are just "surfable" at best. Thursday morning is the pick of the week, honestly, but that’s not saying much. It’s a long period swell from the west, so at Crab Island, a reef break, it should have a little more shape, but it’s still barely over waist-high.

After that pulse, it fades away quickly. The last week of the window is a real disappointment. The swell drops back to dribble, with most days seeing 1ft to 1ft of weak, short-period junk. The energy readings drop back into the teens and twenties, and we get a weird, long-period groundswell rolling in on the 24th and 25th at 0.3ft with a 14-second period. That’s just enough to show you what could have been, but not enough to ride. Water temp is a crazy 70°, which is 8° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, and we'll be sweating in our wetsuits, that’s for sure.

Honestly, the only time this spot looks even remotely interesting for surfers is Thursday morning the 20th. Otherwise, the whole fortnight is a blank. If you’re out there, you’ll be on a log or a foamy. For the most part, conditions are too blown out for the size. I’d say the setup is more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing on most days.

There’s a gap of several days at the start with zero options. The surf is tiny and poor for the entire run. The consistent theme is just not enough swell. A blank run like this is pretty normal for the area, so we just have to wait for the ocean to wake up. Forecasts can change, though, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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