Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get local. Crab Island is the only spot on the radar, and it’s a reef setup that’s exposed to the southwest swell. The water temperature is sitting at 69°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s really unusual, feels like a warm bath.

We’re looking at a pretty grim run for the first week or so. Wednesday the 5th has some waist-high swell, around 5ft from the WSW, but the wind is a strong cross-off at 15 mph, and the combined energy is weak (163). The afternoon gets worse – wind jumps to 22 mph, making it a lumpy mess. Thursday morning the 6th drops to 3ft, cleaner with a lighter breeze, but the energy is barely there (78). Still, not worth paddling out for.

From Friday the 7th through to the middle of the following week, it’s flat. The swell drops to 0.7ft to 2ft, with periods all over the place. There’s a patch of glassy conditions on Saturday morning the 8th, but with only 0.7ft of swell, you’d be floating, not surfing. The energy readings are in the single digits and teens. It’s dead.

We get a little pulse on Thursday the 13th afternoon – 4ft from the WSW with a 10-second period, and the energy jumps to 444 (moderate). But the wind is cross at 15 mph, and the conditions are described as poor. It’s not clean. Friday the 14th has similar waist-high energy (132 to 122) but again, the wind is messy.

The one standout in this whole 16-day window hits Monday the 17th of August. The morning brings a solid 12ft from the WSW with a 11-second period. That’s heavy, groundswell energy, and the combined energy screams strong at 2749. The wind is cross-off at 15 mph, making for clean conditions. But here’s the catch – the guidance says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a reef, 12ft is serious business. This is expert-only territory, and it’s going to be big, powerful, and probably pretty dangerous. The afternoon drops to 8ft but the wind swings cross and picks up to 19 mph, turning it into a lumpy mess. If you’re an absolute charger, the Monday morning window is the only time worth looking at, but be warned – it’s no joke.

After that, Tuesday the 18th drops right back to 3ft and weak energy (79). Wednesday the 19th has a morning bump to 4ft with 311 energy and clean cross-off wind, but it’s still not a standout. The rest of the week fades into small, weak, and windy conditions.

Bottom line: the first 12 days are a write-off. The only real, big wave opportunity is that Monday 17th morning swell, but it’s too big for the break and for nearly everyone. This reef is a tough spot to catch clean waves in this window. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on the windy, bigger days.

Rusty.

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