Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak surf and a lot of choppy, cross-shore wind that’s going to have you pulling the plug on the session before you even get your wetsuit on. I’m talking about Crab Island, a reef setup that stays pretty consistent, but it’s not going to do you any favors with what’s coming through.

The water is sitting at 69° right now, which is a solid 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a big deal – we’re talking about a seriously warm ocean, so you can ditch the thick rubber and enjoy the feeling of being in a bath.

Looking at the pattern, the first real chance of anything worthwhile is a long way off. From now until the 22nd, it’s basically a write-off. The swell is tiny, mostly under 2ft, and the energy is weak – we're talking combined energy values in the single digits to the 70s, which is just nothing. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore, making things messy. There are a couple of clean moments, like the glassy spells on the morning of the 16th and the 21st, but with no swell behind them, it’s just a flat, pretty ocean.

Now, keep your eyes on Sunday the 23rd. That’s the one that’s got my attention. The morning shows a jump to 7ft of swell from the W, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy leaps to 621, which is strong. The wind is light and offshore from the NW, making it clean. This is the standout of the whole window. It’s a groundswell, but at 9 seconds it’s not super long, so it should hold some shape. This is going to be big – over 5ft, so it’s not for the beginners. It's a proper wave for the crew who know what they’re doing. The afternoon sees it drop a bit to 5ft and the wind swings cross-shore, so the morning is definitely the call. This is more than a week out, so treat it as a promising lead, not a guarantee, but it’s the only real highlight on the board.

After that, it fades out again quickly, with the rest of the window looking pretty average. The swell drops back to under 3ft, and we’re back to ordinary conditions. There’s a weak, very long-period swell on the 25th, but it’s tiny and blown out, so it’s not worth the effort. Honestly, if you’ve got a window, you’re waiting for the 23rd. Everything else is a skunk.

Rusty.

Read more