Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks look pretty grim for surf at Crab Island. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing really happening until the very end of the period, and even that comes with a big fat caveat.

Let’s run through it. From Monday the 24th of August all the way through to the 2nd of September, it’s just a flat, messy grind. The swell is tiny – mostly under 3ft, pushing from E, W, or WSW with periods so short they’re barely a ripple (3 to 4 seconds). The combined swell energy is pathetic, mostly under 100, just weak and unorganised. Winds are all over the shop – cross, cross-on, onshore, fresh breezes, and even a strong breeze late August. The water is way warmer than normal for this time of year at 69°F, a massive 8°F anomaly – that’s very unusual, like swimming in bathwater, but there’s no surf to enjoy it. There’s a brief moment on Wednesday the 26th afternoon with glassy conditions, but with a 1ft swell from the W and 8-second period, it’s barely a splash. Thursday the 27th sees light rain and onshore wind – forget it. The whole first week and into the second is just a write-off. Zero scores across the board until the 3rd of September.

Now, there is a glimmer. On Thursday morning the 3rd of September, we finally get something. The swell bumps up to 6ft from the WSW with a 9-second period, and the wind goes glassy – a slight air from the W. The combined energy jumps to 827, moderate energy. That’s the one bright spot in the whole run, and it gets a “very good surf conditions” flag. Friday the 4th morning also has some potential with a 7ft WSW swell, clean cross-off wind from the NW, but the energy is lower at 371 and it’s rated marginal due to tide. Saturday the 5th morning looks clean again with a 7ft swell, light NNW wind, and energy at 645, also flagged “very good” conditions. So the first part of September has a couple of morning windows that could be worth a paddle.

Then it gets weird. Monday the 7th of September brings a massive jump – a 13ft WSW swell at 10 seconds and then 20ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. That’s *very* long period groundswell. The combined energy goes ballistic – 3,746 in the morning, shooting up to 17,412 in the afternoon. That’s extreme energy. The wind is offshore to cross-off, clean as a whistle. But here’s the kicker: both sessions are flagged as “swell predicted to be too big for this break.” This is a reef setup, and with 13ft to 20ft swell and those periods, it’s going to be a washing machine. Only absolute experts should even think about it, and honestly, on a reef like Crab Island, that kind of size with a long period is more suited to kite surfing than paddle surfing for 99% of us.

The rest of the 8th of September has a 8ft swell in the morning with clean wind, but it’s rated marginal. Crowds are noted as “sometimes” busy here, but with the conditions so poor or extreme, that’s not really a factor.

Best on offer: If you have to pick, the standout is Thursday morning the 3rd of September – that 6ft swell with glassy conditions is your cleanest, most accessible surf. Honorable mention to Saturday morning the 5th of September for a similar clean, consistent feel. The 7th is a monster but for experts only, and even then, caution.

So, a long, flat start, a few decent morning windows early September, then a giant swell that’s too much for the spot. That’s the story.

Rusty.

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