Crab Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. No need to sugarcoat – this stretch is a tough one for surfers. The whole 16-day window is a real struggle. We’ve got a solid two weeks plus where the swell is tiny, nearly non-existent, with heights barely reaching 0.7ft. It’s not until the 26th of July that we see a pulse of energy, but even then, the quality is poor.

Let’s start with the only spot on the menu: Crab Island. This is a reef break, exposed to the SW, and it’s fairly consistent, but that doesn’t mean much when there’s nothing to work with. For the first week, from the 19th of July right through to the 25th, the swell is a joke – 0.3ft to 0.7ft. The water temp is sitting at 69°, which is a whopping 9° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, but it’s not going to help us catch a wave. The energy is weak, with combined swell energy values in the single digits (1 to 10). It’s flat, basically.

The 26th of July (Sunday) finally shows a bit of life. The swell bumps up to 5ft from the WSW, with a period of 6 seconds – that’s short period, windswell stuff. The combined energy hits 190, so moderate wave energy, but the wave comment says “poor surf conditions.” The wind is cross-offshore from the WNW at 15 km/h (9 mph), which is clean, but the swell direction is from the WSW, not the optimum SW. It’s a step up, but it’s not a standout.

The 27th of July (Monday) holds onto 5ft from the W, period 7 seconds, energy at 168. Still clean, cross-off wind from the NNW at 25 km/h (16 mph). But again, the wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” This is the best we get, and it’s only just okay. For a beginner, 5ft to 5ft is pushing it, but it’s not over 8ft, so it’s not expert-only. The short period means the waves will be a bit weak and crumbling.

After the 27th, it drops off again. The 28th of July has 3ft from the W, period 6 seconds, energy dropping to 84. The wind is offshore from the N at 25 km/h (16 mph), so it’s clean, but the swell is fading. By the 29th, it’s back down to 2ft, and from the 30th onwards, it’s tiny again (0.7ft to 1.0ft) for the rest of the run into early August. The crowd profile at Crab Island says “sometimes,” so on a rare day with a pulse, you might have company, but it’s not a worry when the surf is this poor.

Honestly, there’s not a single standout in this window. The best on offer is the 26th and 27th of July, with some clean, 5ft to 5ft swell, but it’s short-period and not well-directed. If you’re desperate, you could get a few crumbly ones, but it’s not worth a special trip. The long gaps are brutal – from the start right through to the 25th, that’s a solid week of nothing. Then after the 27th, it drops off again. This is a flat spell, and it’s normal for the area when the swell just won’t show.

Stay patient, folks. Forecasts can change. For now, I’d save the energy.

Rusty.

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