Pobbles Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next sixteen days at Pobbles Beach.

Right off the bat, I’ll be straight with you: it’s a pretty grim start. We’ve got a long, dry spell before anything worth paddling out for shows up. The first decent window doesn’t appear until Friday the 11th, and even that’s nothing to write home about.

Thursday the 10th is a write-off. We’re looking at a messy 3 ft SW swell with a weak period of 5 seconds, and 16 mph onshore winds. The water temperature is sitting at 66°, which is a full 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's very unusual, feels more like a warm bath than a proper autumn sea. The wave energy is weak (69) and the conditions are just poor.

Friday the 11th is where we get our first real chance. The early morning is looking clean. A 4 ft WSW swell with a 9-second period, a little more energy behind it (271), and a light NW cross-offshore breeze at 9 mph. It’s not a standout by any means, but for a beginner spot that’s labelled as inconsistent, this is about as good as it gets this week. The afternoon gets a bit sloppy with a cross-shore wind, so aim for the morning.

From Saturday the 12th right through to Wednesday the 25th of September, the story is mostly one of poor surf, onshore winds, and rising and falling swell that never quite lines up. There’s a couple of clean mornings in there, like Tuesday the 15th afternoon with a 4 ft W swell and cross-off winds, and Wednesday the 16th morning with a 4 ft W swell and clean offshore winds, but the period is short and the energy is only moderate. Nothing that screams “drop everything and go.”

The real talking point, and honestly the only true standout in this whole 16-day window, is Thursday the 24th of September. Now, this is a long way out, so treat it with some caution, but the models are hinting at something solid. We've got an 8 ft W swell rolling in on Thursday afternoon, with a period of 8 seconds and a massive jump in energy (1011). The wind is light from the WSW, only 6 mph, creating a light cross-shore breeze that should keep the surface clean. This will be heavy, powerful surf pushing over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew that know Pobbles. Beginners will want to sit this one out. The swell direction matches the optimum for the spot (SW), which is a good sign. For a break that’s fairly exposed, this could be the session of the month if it comes together. The Friday the 25th still has size, around 7 ft, but the wind swings onshore which will chop it up.

So, to sum it up: a long, slow grind of small, weak, or blown-out surf until the very end. Friday the 11th morning is your only early-week option for a clean, small wave. But the big one to circle on the calendar is Thursday the 24th afternoon – that’s the one with real potential, just keep an eye on the forecasts as it gets closer.

Rusty.

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