Porth Ceriad Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into it. The outlook for Porth Ceriad is a grim one, I’m afraid. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the surf gods are not smiling on this spot. The first real chance of a wave doesn’t show up until the middle of the second week, so there’s a long, dry gap to sit through.

The pattern starts with a real dud. Wednesday morning, 2nd September, we’re looking at a sloppy 4ft swell from the SSW, but a strong 25 mph SSE wind is blowing straight onshore. The water is a warm 65°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when the surface is a mess. The combined energy is a weak 72, and it’s just poor surf conditions. That afternoon and through the rest of the week, we’re stuck in a cycle of cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy mess. The swell bumps up to 5ft on Thursday, but it’s still cross-onshore and ugly. By Friday, the wind shifts cross-shore, but the swell is short-period and junky. The energy is moderate, hitting 149 on Friday morning, but the conditions are just poor.

The first weekend is a complete write-off. Saturday morning, 5th September, the swell drops to 2ft with a light cross-shore breeze, and the wave energy is a pathetic 43. Sunday is even worse, with a tiny 2ft SE windswell and a 3-second period – that’s barely a ripple. The combined energy on Sunday morning is only 23. We’re looking at a total flat spell.

The first week is a dead loss. The second week starts with a bit more size, but the wind is still a problem. Monday, 7th September, sees a 5ft WSW swell, but it’s cross-onshore and lumpy. The energy is moderate at 105. Tuesday the 8th pushes up to 7ft, but it’s a strong cross-shore wind and a short 6-second period. The energy is getting up there, 329, but it’s messy and no good for a paddle. Honestly, with that much wind and onshore chop, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The only glimmer of hope comes mid-week, but it’s a tease. Wednesday morning, 9th September, we see a 7ft swell from the WNW with a 7-second period and a clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW at 22 mph. The energy is a strong 410. That’s a big, powerful swell, but it’s over 8ft, so it’s strictly for experts only. The wind is clean, but the waves will be raw and heavy. That afternoon, it drops off into a small cross-onshore mess again.

The rest of the week peters out. Thursday morning, 10th September, has a tiny 1ft swell with a clean offshore wind, but it’s only 1ft. The energy is 8. Not worth paddling out. Friday, the 11th, is a flat, onshore dud. The weekend of the 12th and 13th sees a small bump back to 4-5ft, but it’s onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s choppy and poor.

The only day that gives a shred of hope is Monday, 14th September. The afternoon sees a 3ft SSW swell with a 6-second period and a gentle offshore wind from the NNW. The conditions are clean, and the energy is a weak 55. The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s not a standout, it’s just the only moment that isn’t completely terrible. It’s tiny and weak, but it’s clean. That’s the best on offer, and that’s a pretty sad statement.

After that, it’s back to flatness. Tuesday and Wednesday, 15th and 16th September, are tiny and flat, with a glassy 0.7ft on Wednesday afternoon, but no energy to speak of. The rest of the window is a total bust.

So, to wrap it up: the best (and only) chance to get wet is Monday afternoon, 14th September, at Porth Ceriad. The swell is a weak 3ft from the SW, period is 6 seconds, and the wind is a gentle offshore from the NNW. It’s clean, but it’s small and ordinary. The big 7ft WNW swell on Wednesday, 9th September, is too big for most and only for experts. Everything else is a blown-out mess or flat. It’s a tough run, but it rarely stays this poor for long in this area. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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