Abereiddy Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Been staring at the charts for Abereiddy, and I’ve got to be straight with you: it’s a tough stretch ahead. First off, the water temp is running about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. But the surf? Man, it’s mostly flat and messy for the foreseeable future.

We’re looking at a solid run of poor conditions through the end of August and into the first week of September. The energy is weak, with values mostly dipping below 200, and a lot of that is short-period windswell that just doesn’t have any push. The swell direction is hanging around the SW to WSW, but the period stays down around 6-8 seconds, so it's all a bit crumbly and unorganized. There are a couple of mornings where the wind goes cross-offshore and it cleans up, like the 28th and 29th, but the swell is still pretty weak and the bigger pulses get ruined by strong winds. Friday the 28th brings a bit of a pulse, 6ft on the morning, but it's still short-period and the wind is up – not worth getting excited about.

The weekend of the 29th and 30th actually sees some energy build, with the combined swell energy jumping to 984 on Saturday afternoon and 431 on Sunday morning. But the wind is just too strong and side-shore, making a mess of things. The period stays short, so it's lumpy and crossed-up. It’s the kind of surf that looks better from the car park than it does out in the water.

The following week remains pretty bleak. There’s a small lift on Tuesday the 1st with 7ft on the morning, but again, it's all short-period and cross-shore. The same story continues into the 3rd, where we see 5ft but the wind, while cross-offshore, is fresh, so it's still not going to be clean. By the 4th, the swell drops away again and the period stretches out a bit to 10 seconds, but the heights are down to 3ft or less and the wind is straight cross-shore.

We then have a flat stretch around the 5th and 6th, with waves dropping to 2ft at best. The energy really fades, and you'd be better off finding a nice quiet spot to watch the clouds than paddling out.

Now, here’s the one moment that has my attention. On Monday the 7th of September, the models are showing a big pulse of long-period W/SW swell. The height jumps up to 12ft, and the combined energy is a very strong 2345. That's a serious amount of ocean moving. The period is also up to 10 seconds, which is better, but the wind is a strong cross-offshore, which could actually make for some semi-holdy conditions. That size, though, is well over 8ft, so this is strictly for experienced surfers only. It’s also a Monday, so it might not be as crowded, but this is a promising, albeit distant, prospect. The forecast confidence is lower for that far out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s the only real standout on the board.

After that, the ocean seems to take a breath. The 8th and 9th see the swell back down to 4ft and then 2ft with the period dropping off. The wind situation keeps things marginal.

Overall, the next two weeks are a grind. There are no classic days, just a whole lot of nothing and a couple of close calls. Abereiddy is a fairly exposed spot, but with this much short-period swell and persistent side-shore winds, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers for most of the period. Hold tight, that big pulse on the 7th is worth waiting for, but don't book the time off just yet.

Rusty.

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