Salcombe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range forecast for our stretch of coast has a bit of a slow burn to it. It’s not going to be flat-out terrible, but there’s a clear gap before we see anything worth getting properly excited about. We’re looking at a run of days where the swell is small and the winds aren’t playing nice, before a few windows open up that will get the heart rate up. It’s all about being patient and picking the right sessions.

Looking at the very start of the period, Tuesday morning has a bit of swell – we’re talking 5ft at 10 seconds from the west. But the wind is just a cross-off from the north at 9 mph, making it marginal. It’s clean-ish, but there’s a question mark over the tide. It’s surfable, but you’d be working for it. The afternoon, the wind swings northwest and howls up to 22 mph, which might be offshore but it’s just too strong and will blow the waves out. That one’s a miss.

Wednesday morning is a different story. The swell drops slightly to 5ft at 9 seconds from the west, but the wind is a clean offshore from the northwest at 12 mph. This is one of the better options early on. The afternoon, the wind backs off to a cross-off and the swell drops to 4ft, so the magic fades quickly.

Then we hit a real lull. From Thursday morning all the way through to early next week, the swell just dies. We’re looking at sub-3ft waves for days on end, with cross-shore and onshore winds. This is a proper flat spell, the kind that makes you wonder if the ocean forgot its lines. There's a window on Friday morning – the NW wind is offshore and it's 5ft at 9 seconds, but it’s surfable, but the data calls it “very ordinary conditions,” so I’d keep expectations in check.

This lean period stretches for several days, from Thursday through to the following Wednesday. It’s a long stretch of nothing worth chasing.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday, September 15th, in the afternoon. The wind goes offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, and the swell bumps up slightly to 3ft, but the period stretches out to 11 seconds. It’s still small, but that longer period gives it a bit more push. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the start of something.

The real standout of the whole period is shaping up for Wednesday, September 23rd. Now, this is a long way out, so treat it with a little caution, but the models are showing a real spike. The swell is still not huge, only 3ft, but the period jumps to a very long 13 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and it’s from the west, which is what Salcombe wants. The caveat is that long-period swell can be a bit fat at a beach break, but if the winds are right, it could be special.

The problem? The wind on the 23rd is a strong cross-onshore from the ENE at 25 mph. That’s going to chop it up and make a mess of it. It’s the classic “if only” scenario. The swell is there, but the wind will ruin it. If that wind was offshore, we’d be in for a day to remember. As it stands, it’s a frustrating end to the forecast. It might even be more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers.

So, to sum it up: the pick of the bunch is Wednesday morning. It has the cleanest conditions and decent swell for the area. The call for the 23rd is a big maybe, a long-range promise that will probably get torn up by the wind. For now, get out there on Wednesday morning and enjoy what we’ve got. The water is a touch warmer than usual, running at 64°, which is nice to feel. Don't hold your breath for the rest of it.

Rusty.

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