Surf Forecasts:
Manorbier surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period, WSW swell with 690 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Manorbier this week:
The surf forecast for Manorbier over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 9s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Manorbier in the next 16 days are 2.1m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 7s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (BST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Thu 10th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Manorbier over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. The outlook for Manorbier over the next 16 days is a bit of a mixed bag – a lot of onshore chop and not much quality on the cards. The first few days are a write-off, so we’ll call it a slow start right through Thursday the 10th and into the weekend. The water is sitting at 65°F which is about 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so the sea feels like a warm bath, but that’s where the good news ends for a while.
Friday the 11th morning is the first real window of something rideable. The swell is 5ft from the WSW with a period of 9 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW. That north-northwesterly will keep the surface clean, and the moderate wave energy (322) gives it a bit of push. It’s a beach and point setup, so the longer period (9 seconds) should wrap around the point a bit better than the beach. The crowd factor is “often” here, so you won’t be alone, but the conditions are good enough to share. Cross-off wind and clean surf at Manorbier – that’s your best bet in the whole run.
The following days are a bit of a slog. The wind turns onshore or cross-onshore for most of Saturday the 12th through Thursday the 18th, with the swell staying in the 3ft to 7ft range but lacking any real shape. The energy is moderate (between 136 and 523) but the wind just ruins it. The 18th of September sees a fresh push of 7ft SW swell but with a strong breeze onshore, making it a lumpy mess. Not one for the paddle board.
From the 19th to the 22nd, the swell bottoms out and the wind keeps blowing from the wrong direction. The 24th of September pops up with a 7ft swell from the west and a 7-second period, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, so it’s just a choppy, blown-out heap. The energy is strong (522 to 595) but it’s all wind-chop. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a surfable wave.
Honestly, the standout here is the Friday morning of the 11th. That’s the only session where the stars align. After that, you’re just waiting for a change in the pattern.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu morning, min 14°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Thu morning, light winds from the NW by Fri morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 19°C on Mon morning, min 14°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 5 | WSW 7 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 8 | WSW 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 7 | WSW 10 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 6 | W 7 | W 7 | W 8 | W 9 | W 10 | W 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 79 | 513 | 573 | 322 | 213 | 96 | 131 | 277 | 340 | 341 | 237 | 149 | 140 | 176 | 61 | 176 | 176 | 343 | 340 | 284 | 53 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 6:40PM7.91m | 7:02AM7.80m | 7:19PM8.23m | 7:39AM8.03m | 7:57PM8.31m | 8:15AM8.05m | 8:32PM8.17m | 8:49AM7.88m | 9:06PM7.84m | 9:23AM7.55m | 9:40PM7.36m | 9:56AM7.09m | 10:14PM6.78m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:35PM0.56m | 1:00AM0.21m | 1:14PM0.20m | 1:37AM-0.01m | 1:50PM0.04m | 2:11AM-0.02m | 2:24PM0.08m | 2:43AM0.17m | 2:57PM0.30m | 3:14AM0.51m | 3:29PM0.67m | 3:45AM0.97m | 4:02PM1.16m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  | | |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:45 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — |
 | — | 7:45 | — | — | 7:44 | — | — | 7:42 | — | — | 7:38 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:31 | — |
mm | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 12 | W 11 | — | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 8 | — | — | — | WSW 10 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | WSW 6 | W 11 | W 9 | W 8 | W 9 | W 10 | W 6 |
| kJ | 3 | 10 | — | 322 | 213 | 96 | — | — | — | 341 | 237 | 149 | 140 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 45 | 343 | 340 | 284 | 39 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | S 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | W 8 | S 12 | S 11 | S 6 | — | — | W 10 |
| kJ | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 53 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 5 | WSW 7 | WSW 9 | — | — | — | WSW 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 7 | — | — | SSW 2 | — | WSW 9 | S 4 | W 7 | W 7 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | — | W 6 |
| kJ | 79 | 513 | 573 | — | — | — | 131 | 277 | 340 | — | — | 1 | — | 176 | 10 | 176 | 176 | 6 | 8 | — | 68 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 393 | 165 | 118 | 0 | 9 | 117 | 123 | 332 | 133 | 166 | 123 | 35 | 123 | 123 | 74 | 441 | 449 | 8 | 53 | 8 | 49 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Wales - Pembrokeshire | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United Kingdom | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Manorbier Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Manorbier provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Manorbier can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Manorbier surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Manorbier) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Manorbier may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Wales - Pembrokeshire? If you are looking for accommodation near Manorbier, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Wales - Pembrokeshire, consider staying in Pembroke which is 8 km (5 miles) away. Other places in and around Wales - Pembrokeshire where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Milford Haven which is 16 km (10 miles) away, Fishguard, Carmarthen and Aberporth.
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