Manorbier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about what’s on offer for the next 16 days around Manorbier. I’ve had a good look at the charts, and I’ve got to be honest with you, it’s a pretty grim outlook. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf quality, with no real standout sessions to get excited about. The first usable wave doesn't even show up until the end of the month, and even then, it’s not great.

The water temperature is sitting at a mild 65°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – a little bonus for the skin, but it won't make up for the lack of waves.

We kick off the forecast period with a painful gap. From the 23rd of August right through to the 25th, it’s flat. Tiny, weak swells under 1 ft with light and cross-off winds. You’d be better off polishing your board. The combined energy is barely a whisper, with values like 26 (Sunday 23rd morning) just confirming there’s nothing to work with.

On the 26th and 27th of August, we get a little bump, but it’s a messy one. A 3 ft swell from the south with a short period of 5 seconds on Wednesday morning brings a combined energy of 61 – still weak. The wind is cross-shore, but it’s creating a chop. By Thursday morning, the swell pushes up to 4 ft from the southwest, with a period of 8 seconds and a moderate energy reading of 164, but it’s still cross-shore and choppy. These aren’t the kind of waves you tell your mates about.

The end of the first week gets a bit bigger, but it comes with a price. On the 29th of August, a 8 ft swell from the west-southwest shows up with a lot of energy (663) and a short period of 8 seconds. That’s going to be a lumpy, onshore mess. The wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 22 mph. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s ugly. For a beach and point break like Manorbier, which does best with a southwest swell, the wind is just ruining it. I’d say this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The rest of the run into the first week of September stays poor. We see a 5 ft swell from the west-northwest on the 31st of August (combined energy 177), but it’s cross-shore and choppy again. The first week of September is a total write-off – small, short-period, onshore wind slop. The combined energy drops right back down to the teens and twenties. There’s a brief moment on the 3rd of September with a 16-second period swell from the south-southwest, but it’s tiny at 0.7 ft, so it’s all show and no go.

The second week is just as bad. A moderate 3 ft to 4 ft swell on the 5th and 6th of September is blown out by fresh to strong onshore winds, making it messy and unappealing. The combined energy never gets past 191, and the wind is always wrong.

So, the bottom line: there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. Manorbier is a fairly consistent break normally, so this blank run is a bit of an anomaly. Don’t lose hope, the forecasts can change, but for now, you’re not missing a thing.

Rusty.

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