Carbis Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are going to test your patience if you’re chasing waves around Carbis Bay. The forecast is pretty grim for a while, but there’s a glimmer of hope way out on the horizon for the brave and the desperate.

The long and short of it is that we’ve got a whole lot of nothing, then a period of messy, blown-out surf, and finally a possible window of clean, solid waves right at the end. The trouble is, the good stuff looks like it might be a bit much for the average punter.

Looking at the first week, it’s basically a write-off. The surf is tiny and the wind is all over the place. From Monday the 17th right through to Sunday the 23rd, we are looking at poor surf conditions. There’s some swell on Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th, with wave heights getting up to 5.6ft and 6.6ft, but it’s coming in with a cross-offshore and then a cross-shore wind that’s just going to chop it all up. The energy is moderate at best, with values around 300 to 700. It’s not going to be worth the paddle. By the 21st, it’s dropped right back down to under 3ft with onshore winds. This is a real flat spell.

We’ve got a few days of almost nothing from the 22nd to the 24th. Swell heights are down to 0.7ft and 1ft with a long period, but there’s just no energy behind it. The combined energy drops to as low as 32. It’s glassy and clean on the morning of the 24th, but with absolutely no waves to ride. It’s torture. This dead spell runs from around the 22nd through to the 25th.

Then we get some more swell building on the 25th and 26th, but again, the winds are strong and cross-off or cross. The energy picks up to the 300s, but the conditions are just messy. The water temp is 64.2°F, which is about average for the time of year.

Alright, so what are we waiting for? The final few days of the forecast window, starting around Friday the 28th of August and into Tuesday the 1st of September, things start to get interesting. This is the one to keep an eye on. It’s still over a week away, so treat it as promising but not set in stone—long-range calls are always a gamble.

The first sign of life is on Friday the 28th. We’re looking at a solid 7.5ft to 7.9ft of west-southwest swell. The energy is strong, hitting 755 and 819. The wind finally swings offshore, which is a huge positive. It’s going to be a fresh offshore, keeping the surf clean. This is the standout day for the more experienced crew. The swell direction is a bit west of their optimum, but with that size and clean conditions, it should be firing.

Saturday the 29th looks a little less clean, with a cross-shore wind, but still plenty of size. Then on Monday the 31st, the swell is back up to 8.2ft, with a strong offshore wind. It’s going to be big and powerful.

But the real prize is on Tuesday, the 1st of September. The forecast is for a proper pulse of groundswell. We’re talking a 9.8ft swell from the west-northwest with a very long 12-second period. The combined energy readings are massive at 2186 and 2214. That is serious, strong wave energy. With a fresh offshore wind predicted, this has the potential to be the best session of the entire fortnight. This is one for the experts only, though. At 9.8ft, it’s well over the 8ft mark, so it will be heavy and challenging. The long period is good for points and reefs, but Carbis Bay is a beach break, so it might be a bit shifty and challenging. Don’t be a hero if you’re not ready for it.

So, the plan is simple. Sit tight through the junk, maybe get some longboard waves on the 28th if you're keen, and save your energy for that Tuesday the 1st of September. It could be well worth the wait.

Stay salty.

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