Carbis Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Carbis Bay. I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. The forecast doesn’t serve up much for the paddler over the next two weeks.

We start off with a real flat spell. The first few days are just about a write-off. Monday the 20th sees tiny, weak swell with a measly combined energy of just 35, and a messy cross-on wind. The water is running at 64°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. It’s not doing us any favours though. The conditions just aren’t there.

Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd get a little more energy – the combined energy climbs to a moderate 112 on Wednesday morning – but all that comes with a stiff, lumpy cross-onshore wind. The swell is short-period and weak, making for choppy, poor surf. It’s not worth a second look.

Thursday the 23rd morning is a tease. The wind goes glassy, but the swell is tiny at 3 ft from the north, with only 63 energy. It’s clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. Friday the 24th and into the weekend are even smaller, with energy dropping into the teens and twenties. The wind cleans up a bit on Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th morning, but the swell is practically non-existent.

Then we get a bit of a pulse. On Sunday the 26th morning, the swell jumps to 6 ft from the NW, with a combined energy of 238. That’s some real energy. But the problem is the wind – it’s a moderate cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. This is a proper beach break and with that strong wind and lumpy water, it’s looking more interesting for a kite surfer than someone on a paddle board. By Sunday afternoon, it’s a fresh cross-shore with a messy cross-chop. The swell is still there, but the quality is shot.

Into the following week, things settle down again. Monday the 27th morning is a standout, but only because everything else is so poor. The swell drops to 3 ft from the west, with a combined energy of 167, and the wind goes clean and cross-offshore. That’s the only window where you might get a few turnable, clean waves. It’s not big, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. The rest of that week and into August is a slow grind of small, weak, and often choppy surf. The energy readings are mostly in the 30s and 40s, barely a ripple.

The end of the forecast window on Tuesday the 4th of August sees another spike in energy, hitting 103 on the morning, with a 4 ft swell from the WNW. But again, it’s a moderate cross-onshore wind, turning it into a lumpy mess. It’s a frustrating pattern.

So here’s the honest truth: there’s no real standout in this 16-day window. If you’re desperate for a paddle, point your board at Carbis Bay on Monday the 27th of July. The clean cross-off wind will make the most of that 3 ft swell. It’s not a classic, but it’s your only real shot at something clean. The rest of the time, you’re better off waiting for the next weather system to sort itself out.

Stay patient. Rusty.

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