Carbis Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be real about this forecast – it’s a tough one. We’re looking at a 16-day stretch for Carbis Bay, but honestly, the first two weeks are a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The surf just isn’t there, and the wind is doing us no favours. We’ve got a gap of about 14 days before anything even starts to look interesting.

The water temp is sitting at 62°F, which is about average for the time of year, nothing to get excited about there.

Alright, let’s run through the grim bits. For the first two weeks, from Wednesday 15 July all the way through to Tuesday 29 July, it’s just poor surf conditions. Swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, with a lot of short-period, weak windswell. The combined energy is in the doldrums, mostly under 100, with a few brief spikes to 166 on the 19th, but that’s a messy 5ft onshore event. The wind is generally cross-on or onshore, making it choppy and lumpy. Even when the wind lightens up, there’s just no wave to ride. Friday morning the 17th looks clean with a light south wind, but the swell is a pathetic 2ft with a 5-second period – that’s not surf, that’s a ripple.

The only light at the end of the tunnel comes on Wednesday 29 July. We finally see a change. The wind swings offshore – a moderate south-southwest breeze – and the swell picks up. On Wednesday afternoon, the sea state is finally described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” with a 1.0 score. The swell is 2ft from the west-northwest with a 10-second period, which is a step in the right direction. The combined energy hits 145, so there’s some life in the water.

The standout for the entire 16-day window is the following day, Thursday 30 July. This is the one to circle. The wind stays offshore, a moderate southwest breeze, keeping things clean. The swell builds to 5ft in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon, both from the west, with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 224 and then 246 – that’s moderate wave energy, the most we’ve seen all forecast. This is certainly too big for beginners, but for the rest of us, it’ll be the most fun on offer. The optimum swell direction for Carbis Bay is west-northwest, so a west swell is a good match. Keep in mind the period is on the shorter side, so it won’t be a classic groundswell, but with offshore wind, it’ll be a fun, clean little wave. Crowds are possible here, so get your timing right.

The rest of the forecast after that doesn’t hold the same promise, so if you want a wave, focus on that Thursday 30 July.

Rusty out.

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