Carbis Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Grab your wettie, this is Rusty.

To be straight with you, Carbis Bay is not looking great for a proper surf session for the vast majority of this 16-day window. We’re staring down a long stretch of tiny, weak, and often messy conditions. The first real pulse of size doesn’t show up until the 27th of July, and even then it’s a bit of a mixed bag. For the first week and a half, you’re looking at a lot of nothing. There’s a gap from now until the 26th with pretty much nothing worth paddling out for.

Friday 17th to Sunday 26th July: This is a big dry spell. The swell is tiny, mostly under 2 ft, or it’s blown out by strong northerly winds. The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is about average for this time of year, so that’s not the issue. The problem is a lack of any real energy. The combined energy sits in the teens and twenties (14-36) – that’s very weak. You’ll get a brief moment of clean, glassy conditions on Tuesday 21st morning with a light ESE wind, but the swell is only 1 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period. It’s pretty, but you’ll be bobbing around. The 26th has a bit of a spike in energy (103) and a 4 ft WNW swell, but it’s accompanied by a cross-onshore moderate breeze, making it choppy.

Monday 27th July: Finally, something. The morning brings a 5 ft W swell with a 6-second period, but the key is the offshore wind from the WSW. It’s blowing at 15 km/h, keeping the surface clean. The combined energy jumps to 211 (moderate). This is your first real chance to get a wave. The afternoon is a touch bigger at 6 ft from the W, but the wind swings to the W and becomes cross-offshore, so it’s still rideable and clean. The period is short (7 seconds), so it’ll be a bit lumpy and fat, but it’s surfable. This is the standout of the window.

Tuesday 28th to Wednesday 29th July: We get a bit more size, but the wind gets messy. Tuesday has a 6 ft swell, but a cross-shore NW wind at 20-25 km/h chops it up. Wednesday 29th is the biggest day of the outlook, with a 13 ft WSW swell and a 10-second period. The combined energy is a massive 3140 (strong). The wind is cross-onshore from the NNW, though, so it’s going to be a wild, blown-out mess. The guidance says it’s too big for this break. Unless you’re an expert looking for a washing machine, give this one a miss. This is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session.

Thursday 30th July to Saturday 1st August: The swell is still massive but dropping. Thursday morning has a 13 ft WNW swell with a 10-second period (energy 3703) and a light cross-onshore wind. Again, too big for the average surfer here. By Friday 31st, the swell drops to 8 ft, but the wind is cross-onshore. Saturday 1st August sees the swell drop to 4 ft, with a clean cross-offshore wind from the W. It’s a small, clean end to the run.

The Bottom Line:
The only real window for a decent, clean surf is the morning of Monday 27th July. The offshore wind and a moderate 5 ft swell make it the best option. The rest of the time is either flat, chopped up, or way too big for this spot.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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