Freshwater West Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking over the Pembrokeshire forecast for the next couple of weeks. Let’s be straight with each other – it’s a bit of a tough stretch ahead, especially for us wave-starved locals.

We’re kicking off with some swell, but the wind is gonna make things messy. The first real chance to get a wetsuit on is on Sunday the 13th, but even then, it’s a write-off with onshore winds. We’ve got a long, frustrating run of poor conditions all the way through the end of the week. Honestly, from Sunday afternoon until Friday the 18th, it’s mostly cross-onshore or onshore wind, making a mess of what swell we have. The energy in the water is moderate at best, but it’s just not clean.

There’s a real glimmer of hope on Sunday the 20th. That morning, we finally see a shift. The wind swings around to a cross-offshore from the north-northeast, cleaning things right up. The waves are only about 4ft from the west-southwest, but the combined energy is low, so it’s not packing much punch. It’s a very small window. The afternoon is even better with a gentle offshore breeze from the northeast and clean lines, though the swell drops right off to 3ft. It’s surfable, but you’ll be on a log. This is your best bet for the whole forecast period – it’s the only day the stars align for anything close to decent. For a spot like Freshwater West, which is an exposed beach and reef setup, the clean conditions will be a welcome relief. The water is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, sitting around 64°, so it’s not too bad for a late September paddle.

After that brief respite, we drop right off into the doldrums. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd see some small, marginal surf, but it’s messy or just tiny. From Wednesday the 23rd onward, the swell energy just collapses. The combined energy figures drop from the low hundreds all the way down to single digits by the 25th. It’s flat, clean, and completely un-rideable for a solid stretch right through to the end of the month. There is a weird little long-period groundswell on the 26th and 27th, with periods of 12-13 seconds, but the height is only 1ft. The energy is very weak. It’s just not enough to push through.

So, to sum it up: the next two weeks are mostly a write-off. Sunday the 20th is your one standout day for a clean, small-wave session. After that, put the board away until something changes. Forecasts can shift, but as it stands, it’s a long, quiet run.

Rusty.

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