Swamis Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Swamis. It’s going to be a bit of a waiting game, if I’m honest.

Right off the bat, the water is sitting at a very warm 73°—that’s a good 6° warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s like bathwater out there. But the surf? It’s pretty flat to start. We’re looking at a long stretch from Sunday, the 19th of July, right through to the end of the month where the surf is just marginal at best. The wind is mostly offshore or light cross-onshore, which is a tease, but the swell is tiny and weak. The combined energy of all swells directed here hovers between 245 and 901 for most of that time, which is low to moderate at best. You’re looking at waist-high or smaller waves with a lot of waiting around. It’s not really a paddle session; if you’ve got a kite, the setup might be more interesting for you.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Friday, the 31st of July, in the afternoon. That’s when we see a spike: a 8ft swell from the S, with a period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy jumps to 2707, which is strong. The wind is offshore from the W at 9 mph, so it should be clean. But that’s a big swell for Swamis—over 8ft, which is expert territory. It’s a point-and-reef setup, so that long-period swell (16 seconds) should wrap in nicely, but it’ll be powerful and the sets will be well-spaced.

Saturday, the 1st of August, keeps the fun going. Morning shows a 7ft swell from the S, period 12 seconds, with offshore wind from the WSW at 6 mph. The combined energy is still solid at 1349. That’s still a big wave for most, but the quality should be there for the experienced crew. Afternoon sees it drop a touch to 6ft, still offshore, still clean.

After that, Sunday the 2nd of August it all falls apart again. Wind swings around to a cross-shore, swell drops to 4ft, and the period shortens to 9 seconds. The energy plummets to 469, and things get choppy. It’s back to the marginal zone.

So, to be clear: the first week and a half are a bust. The real standout is the afternoon of the 31st of July and the morning of the 1st of August. That’s your window. It’s still a week and a half away, so don’t carve it in stone, but the models are pointing to a solid, clean swell for the experts. If you’re not in that league, sit this one out.

That’s the long and short of it. Keep an eye on the sky.

- Rusty

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