Swamis Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the surf window we’re looking at is pretty bleak. The models are showing a whole lot of nothing for a while, and it’s gonna be a test of patience. We’re looking at a stretch where the good waves are just not showing up. It’s a long, flat spell, and you might be better off sorting out your gear or finding a skate spot.

We’re starting with a run of poor surf. The swell is small, the winds are mostly onshore or cross-on, and the energy is just weak. The combined energy values are mostly in the 300s and 400s, which is that weak to low-moderate range – not enough to get the blood pumping. The water temp is 76°F with a 8°F anomaly, which is way warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice thing for a swim, but it doesn’t help the waves.

The first real chance of anything rideable shows up around Friday the 14th. The swell is still small, around 2ft to 3ft from the SSW, but the energy ticks up a bit, hitting 572 and 704. It’s still marginal, and the winds are onshore, so it’s not going to be clean. It’s a “maybe” at best. The period is around 18 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell, but with that size and wind, it’s just not going to come together.

The 15th and 16th see a little more size, with the swell pushing to 4ft on Saturday afternoon, but the energy is still moderate and the wind is still on it. The period drops back to 15-16 seconds. It’s still poor. We’re just not getting the right combination.

Honestly, the whole first week is a write-off. We’re looking at a solid 5-6 days of nothing before things even get close to interesting, and even then, it’s just not great.

The second week, from the 17th onward, is more of the same. The swell drops back down to 2ft to 3ft, the periods are in the 13-16 second range, and the winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The energy stays weak to moderate. There’s nothing that stands out as a must-surf session. It’s just a long run of small, messy surf.

So, here’s the bottom line: there are no standout days in this 16-day forecast. The best you can hope for is a marginal, onshore day with a bit of push around the 14th and 15th, but even then, you’re fighting the wind. For a spot like Swamis (North Shore), which needs a good west-northwest swell to really work, this forecast is just a big old dud. The swell direction is from the SSW/SW, which isn't the optimum W direction for the break. The crowds are often there, but with waves this bad, you might have the place to yourself.

If you’re a beginner, the small size is fine, but the conditions are messy. For the more experienced crew, it’s not worth the effort. This is a “check the forecast again tomorrow” kind of situation. A long stretch of nothing is normal for this area in this season, so don’t panic. It’ll come back around.

Rusty

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