Swamis Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s headed our way.

We’ve got a bit of a flat spell on the horizon, but a few pulses of swell try to push through over the next week. The trouble is, conditions are fighting us most of the way, with a persistent cross-onshore breeze that’s keeping things from hitting their potential overall.

First up, Swamis is our only game in town according to the charts. For Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, we’re looking at small, long-period groundswell running about 3 ft to 4 ft from the SSW and SW. The period is up around 19 to 21 seconds – that's proper long-period energy, so those waves will have good shape and push, but expect longer waits between sets. The wind though is a light cross-onshore, not ideal but not horrible either – the water is much warmer than normal at 73°F, that’s over 5°F warmer than average for this time of year, so you can leave the thick wetsuit at home. Wave energy is moderate (924 on Saturday morning, 962 on Sunday morning). Honestly, the scores tell the story – it’s marginal, and I’d only call it a last-resort paddle.

Monday the 27th through Wednesday the 30th sees the swell bumping up a bit, to about 4 ft–5 ft, still mainly SSW. The period drops to the 16–18 second range, still solid groundswell. But the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore from the SW or SSW, picking up to a gentle breeze at times, killing the clean face. Wave energy ticks up into the moderate range (over 1000 at times), but the conditions are just "fairly choppy" or with "small wind ripples." It’s a disappointing combo – some energy but no quality.

The real standout for the whole outlook is the morning of Friday, July 31st. Swell pushes up to 6 ft from the S, period still a decent 14 seconds, and the wind shifts to an offshore from the W – that’s blowing from the land. That’s clean, glassy potential. Energy is strong at 1464. The afternoon continues with that 6 ft S swell and offshore wind. This is the only window I’d get excited for, but it’s still marked as marginal – a sign that tide or other factors may tweak it. Still, if you pick your moment, this is the best we’ve got.

After Friday July 31st, the curtain drops. From Saturday August 1st onward, the swell fades fast. By Sunday August 2nd, we’re down to 3 ft and smaller, with the period dropping into the 10–13 second range, weak and poor surf conditions. That run of poor to zero surf stretches from August 1st all the way through to the end of the outlook on August 9th – a solid 9 days with nothing worthwhile. Wave energy is below 500 for most of that, often under 250.

So here’s the bottom line: if you’re paddling out, target Friday July 31st at Swamis. The offshore wind and 6 ft S swell are your best shot for a clean wave. Everything else is marginal or flat.

Stay tuned, forecasts can shift, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more