Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, we’re looking at a pretty grim start. The surf is small, the conditions are messy, and it’s going to be a real grind for the first week or so. There’s a long stretch of days where it’s just not worth paddling out. The good news is that the forecast flips in the second week, and we’ve got a proper stand-out window that looks like the real deal.

The first real chance to get wet isn’t until Tuesday the 25th of August, and even then it’s a marginal call. We’re talking about 2ft of swell from the SW with a 16 second period at Blacks Beach (San Diego County). The combined energy is weak at 290 (moderate wave energy), and while the wind is light and offshore, the wave comment says it’s questionable. It’s not going to be pretty, but it’s a start. The water temperature is 71°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Wednesday and Thursday are more of the same – small, messy, and cross-onshore. Friday the 28th of August sees a slight bump to 3ft of SSW swell, with a period of 19 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 597 (moderate wave energy). The wind is offshore again, but the conditions are still marginal. Saturday the 29th of August is a bit better with 3ft to 4ft of SSW swell, 16-17 second period, and the combined energy hits 642 to 828 (moderate wave energy). Still, it’s rated as marginal. The crowds are likely to be a problem here as Blacks is often packed.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, arrives on Thursday the 3rd of September. The swell really starts to build, reaching 5ft of SSW swell with a 19 second period by Friday morning the 4th of September. The combined energy absolutely explodes to 2062 (strong wave energy). The wind is a light cross-onshore, which is a bit of a bummer, but with that much energy and that long of a period, the waves are going to be powerful. This is a long period swell, so Blacks, being a reef and point break, is going to hold it well. Sets will be feisty, and paddling out will be a mission, but the wave quality will be insane. This is expert territory for sure – over 5ft of swell, it’s not for beginners. It’s the best on offer, but it’s still a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it.

After that, the swell drops off a cliff by Sunday the 6th of September, with 1ft of weak, short-period junk. That’s the end of the run.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. Don’t bother. The second week, from Thursday the 3rd of September through Saturday the 5th of September, is your window. The best of the bunch is Friday the 4th of September at Blacks Beach, but expect it to be crowded and for experts only.

Stay patient, and keep your eyes on that long-range forecast.

Rusty.

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