Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m gonna level with you… this stretch doesn’t have much to get fired up about. The first solid recommendation doesn’t pop up until Tuesday the 8th of September, so there’s a gap right at the start with nothing worth paddling for. From there it’s a long, mediocre run with just a few flickers of hope, mostly at Blacks Beach.

The water temp here is running about average for this time of year, which is typical for early autumn. No wild anomalies, so it’s comfortable enough in a steamer or just a spring suit depending on your tolerance.

Tuesday September 8th has the first surf worth talking about. Morning and afternoon both show 4 ft of SSW swell, coming in at a 10 second period. The combined swell energy is moderate, sitting at 558 and dropping to 509 by afternoon. It’s cross-on from light NW wind in the morning, turning to a gentle breeze in the arvo, so the surface will have a bit of bump but nothing too gnarly. Still, “marginal” is the word here – the tide and conditions are just average. This isn’t a standout call, just the start of the window.

Wednesday the 9th drops off fast. Swell drops to 2 ft to 3 ft, and although the period stretches to 16 seconds (proper groundswell), the energy stays moderate, 425-466. Rain showers possible in the afternoon and cross-onshore wind… honestly, this is more of a look-and-see session than a plan-your-day kind of deal.

Thursday the 10th bumps back to 3 ft of SW swell at 17 seconds. Energy around 562. But again, it’s cross-on with gentle wind, so expect a bit of chop. Good on paper for the long-period lover but not clean enough to get excited about.

From Friday the 11th through Sunday the 13th, things get poor. Swell drops to 2 ft-3 ft, period backed off, energy weakens to around 293-504, and wind stays cross or cross-on. This is a sketchy zone – the waves will be small, weak, and chopped.

Then Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th – more of the same. Marginal at best with 2 ft to 4 ft swell, mostly cross-on, and poor surf flagged across the board.

Now, moving into the second week… Wednesday the 16th offers a little more: 3 ft SSW at 17 seconds, energy 524, but still cross-on with gentle breeze. Better than the dead days before, but not a standout.

The real glimmer comes late in the window, from Saturday the 19th into Monday the 21st of September. On Saturday the 19th, we get 3 ft SW at 18 seconds, energy 591, light cross-on. By Sunday the 20th, that builds to 3 ft SW at 17-19 seconds, energy climbing to 819. Monday the 21st sees 4 ft SW at 17 seconds, energy hitting 904. The wind turns onshore but light, coming from the W or WSW, which for Blacks can give a glassy-ish feel if you pick your tide right. The waves will be longer period groundswell, so think lined-up walls, more shape – this is the best of the lot. The standouts: Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st of September are the two you want to circle on the calendar. Clean enough, moderate energy, and that 4 ft on Monday with almost 17 seconds of period – that’s a solid day for Blacks if the wind plays ball.

Crowds are often a factor here, so expect company on those better days. The break is exposed and consistent, and the optimum swell direction (WNW) matches well with the SW swell we see in this window. It’s not a classic winter pulse but it’s the best we’ve got.

For Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd, it fades back to 3 ft-3 ft, still SW, period holding 16 seconds, energy 404-631. Marginal, but if you missed the weekend, these days might still offer a few clean ones in the early light.

Bottom line: a long, flat start, a mundane middle, and a decent little run at the end. Don’t expect hero waves, but September 20th through 22nd are your best shots.

- Rusty

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