Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The 16-day window kicks off with a bit of a flat spell. We’ve got a solid run of small, weak surf coming in from the southwest, but honestly, it’s not doing much for us. The energy readings are mostly in the 200-400 range, which is weak, and the swell heights are hovering around 2ft to 3ft. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s going to be pretty chopped up and messy. Those first couple of weeks are a write-off for any real quality. We’re looking at maybe 12 days of this pretty average stuff before anything gets interesting.

The only spot with any real name on it in this forecast is Blacks Beach (Palm Beach). It’s an exposed break, and it’s consistent. But with the swell that weak and the wind like that, even a good break will struggle. The water is running about 74°, which is a full 5° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a standout – the water is properly warm.

Around the 21st and 22nd, we see a small bump in the swell, but it’s still in the 2ft to 3ft range with those short 13-second periods. Not enough to get excited about. The real shift comes on the 27th of August. The morning sees a jump to 7ft of southwest swell, and the energy readings jump to 1376. That’s a strong pulse of energy, a real groundswell. The wind is onshore, but it’s only 9 mph, so it might not completely kill it. However, that size at Blacks Beach is more on the expert side of things.

The following days, the 28th and 29th, keep the momentum going. We’re looking at 4ft to 5ft of swell with periods of 13-18 seconds. The energy is still high, in the 800 to 1000+ range. The wind is lighter, with a bit of a cross-on feel, but still manageable. The 29th looks like the pick of the bunch, with 4ft of SSW swell at 18 seconds and light winds. That’s a solid, powerful long-period swell with clean conditions. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Before that, the conditions are just poor. The swell is too small, the periods are too short, and the wind is messing things up. It’s not worth getting wet for. For the first two weeks, you’re better off doing something else. But that last stretch, particularly the 29th, has some real potential. It’s a promising window, but it’s far out, so it’s not a sure thing just yet.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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