Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks for Blacks Beach.

Right from the get-go, it’s a tough one. For the first proper stretch of days, the onshore wind is just hell on the waves. We’re looking at wind from the WSW or W most of Sunday the 12th to Tuesday the 15th of July, blowing straight on. The swell is barely there – between 2ft and 3ft from the SSW – and the wind is messing up what little shape there is. Combined wave energy is under 400, which is weak. It’s just not worth paddling out for that.

There’s a little window that pops up on Monday morning the 13th, but it’s only rated as marginal. The swell is still a tiny 3ft, and there’s a 13-second period to it, which is nice groundswell potential, but that onshore wind is still a problem. I’d call it a skunk.

The pattern doesn’t really improve much through the middle of the week. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th see a slight bump in swell up to 4ft from the W, but the wind switches to a cross-onshore and we get a bit of chop with it. The combined energy stays weak, between 164 and 335. Not the good stuff.

A bit of hope creeps in by Sunday the 19th. The combined swell energy finally gets into the moderate range, hitting 433 and then 543 in the afternoon. The swell is still small, 3ft to 3ft from the SW with a 17-second period – that’s some serious long-period groundswell. It’s a classic Blacks swell direction. The wind is WNW, which is onshore, but the better afternoon session is rated as marginal. For Blacks, with that long period, a beach break can get a bit fat and straight, but a spot like this can handle it. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

The real standout, the one that finally catches my eye, is Saturday the 25th of July. It's over a week away, so don't book your flights yet, but the forecast is promising. The afternoon session shows a 4ft swell from the SSW with a 13-second period and the combined wave energy jumps to 1194 – that is strong wave energy. The wind is light (6 mph) from the SW, which for Blacks is a cross-onshore, but it’s light. This is the best bet. The poor surf conditions tag is a downer, but the raw numbers look way better than anything else. If that holds, Saturday afternoon could be the call.

Before that, Monday the 27th also shows some promise with a 4ft, 18-second groundswell from the SSW and strong energy at 1077, but it’s further out. The light W wind is onshore, but lighter is better than the 9-12 mph stuff we saw earlier.

Bottom line: It’s a dry start. Don't even bother until at least Sunday the 19th, and even then it’s marginal. The one to keep an eye on is Saturday the 25th and Monday the 27th – that’s your best shot at something with some punch. The setup on the 25th looks like it could be more interesting for a windsurfer than a paddler given the cross-onshore, but the energy is there.

Rusty, signing off.

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