Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Blacks Beach.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next few days are a bit of a write-off. The swell is small and the wind is messy – cross-on, choppy, just not doing us any favours. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions from Saturday the 18th right through the end of the week. The waves are tiny, around 3 to 3 feet, coming from the SW, and the period is long but the energy is still weak. The water is a crazy 73° – that’s more than 5° warmer than usual for this time of year, which is very unusual, but it doesn’t help the surf.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday the 21st of July. The swell bumps up to just over 4 feet from the SSW, with a moderate 16-second period. The energy is picking up (846), and the wind is light cross-on, so it’s still a little bumpy, but it’s the first time we’re seeing anything rideable. Still, it’s only marginal.

The week is a slow grind. Wednesday and Thursday stay small, with the same cross-on breeze and swell around 3 to 4 feet. Not worth getting too excited about. The energy is moderate (around 500-600), but the wind keeps it choppy.

Now, the third week starts to look a lot more promising. From Saturday the 25th of July, the energy jumps up. The swell is a modest 3 feet, but the period is a very long 21 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 1016 – that’s strong. The wind is light and offshore, so the waves will be clean. This is a standout for the forecast period. The long period means it’ll be a bit more lined up, but at a beach break like Blacks, it can break a bit straight. Still, for the size, it’s a real opportunity.

Sunday the 26th keeps the energy high (1087), with 3 feet SSW swell and 19-second period. Light offshore wind again. This is the best on offer. If you’re free, this is the session to aim for.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th see the swell push up to over 4 feet, with energy over 1200 – very strong. The period drops to 17-18 seconds, still a solid groundswell. The wind stays light and offshore through the mornings, which is a major positive. These days, the waves will be clean and have some punch. For intermediates, it’s fine; for beginners, 4 feet might be a bit much, but it’s not out of control.

Wednesday the 29th is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell holds at 4 feet, but the wind swings to a cross-shore breeze from the SSW at 12 mph, which will put a chop on the surface. Still, the energy is high (945), so there will be waves to be had.

Thursday the 30th morning sees the swell drop off, and by the afternoon it’s practically gone – a tiny 2 feet with a 7-second period and only 49 energy. That’s the end of the run.

Then we hit a flat patch from the 31st of July through to the 1st of August. Tiny waves, 1 feet, no energy. Saturday the 1st of August afternoon shows a late spike – 6 feet from the SSW at 12 seconds, with energy back up to 1007 – but the wind is onshore, so it’ll be messy. By Sunday the 2nd of August, the swell is back to 4 feet but with a short 8-9 second period, which is weak and sloppy.

So, the real standout days are Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th of July. Clean, light offshore wind, strong long-period groundswell, and enough energy to make it worthwhile. Get out there if you can.

Rusty.

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