Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The long-range models are showing a tricky stretch ahead for Blacks Beach. We’ve got a consistent background of swell, but the wind and quality are all over the place. The water is sitting at 73°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year – a real treat if you’re brave enough to get out there.

The first real shot at anything decent won’t come until the afternoon of Saturday, September 20th, a full two weeks away. Before that, it’s a tough run. The period from September 7th through the 19th is almost a complete write-off.

We kick off September 7th with a solid 6 ft swell from the SSW, but it’s a total mess. The wind is a cross-on 16 mph, making it choppy and blown out. The combined energy is strong at 1007, but with those conditions, it’s not worth paddling out. The next ten days are a frustrating mix of small, weak swell and poor wind. The wind stays cross-on from the NW or SSW, keeping the surface bumpy. The swell drops to the 2 ft to 4 ft range, with periods all over the place. The energy dips into the low hundreds (319 to 558), and the wave comments are all “poor” or “marginal.” There’s nothing to get excited about.

Finally, we get a glimmer of hope on the morning of Saturday, September 20th. The swell is still small at 3 ft from the SW, but the period jumps to a very long 19 seconds. The wind goes light and variable, and the energy is solid at 705 (moderate wave energy). The only caveat is that a long-period swell like this can be a bit too straight for a beach break, but with light wind, it’s the best we’ll see. The quality remains marginal but it’s the standout of the entire run.

The following Monday, September 21st, sees a similar setup. We’ve got 4 ft from the SW with a 18-second period and light offshore winds from the W. The energy is the highest we’ve seen all forecast at 812 (moderate wave energy). This is the pick of the bunch. The water is still warm, the wind is clean, and the swell has some real grunt. It’s still a small wave, but for a beach break, it’ll be glassy and have some push. Crowds are often, so expect company.

The 22nd of September closes out the window with a drop-off. The swell dips to 3 ft, the period shortens to 16 seconds, and the energy falls to 505. The wind is still light offshore, so it’s not awful, but it’s a comedown after the weekend.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are a bust. The real window is Saturday, September 21st and Monday, September 22nd. The 21st is the true standout – don’t sleep on it. The forecast is a bit of a wait, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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