Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's cut to the chase. The charts for our stretch of coast are showing a long, quiet patch. It’s going to be a real test of patience for the next week and a half. The ocean won't be completely flat, but we're looking at small, weak surf.

For the next 10 days, we are looking at tiny waves. The swell energy is just not there, with readings mostly in the low 100s to 200s (weak to moderate). The wave heights are barely reaching 3ft, with periods around 13-16 seconds. There's no power behind them. The wind is mostly light and from the west, but it's either onshore or cross-onshore, which will keep things a little lumpy.

Starting Friday afternoon, we have a small 3ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, but it's flagged as poor conditions. The water temperature is a very unusual 76° at Blacks Beach, which is 8° warmer than normal for this time of year. That's a big deal; the water will feel like a bath. But that's about the only highlight for the first week and a half.

We'll stagger through Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd with even smaller surf, all below 3ft. Monday the 3rd through to Wednesday the 6th are similar, with the swell dropping to around 2ft – 2ft. The energy stays weak, and the light cross-onshore winds will keep the surface a bit messy. It’s a real waiting game.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The second week starts to show some signs of life. Around Friday the 7th, we see a pulse of longer-period energy. The period jumps to 19 seconds, and the combined energy reading jumps to 484 (moderate). It’s still small, only around 3ft, but that longer period means there’s more purpose to it. The wind is light and offshore too, so it might start cleaning up.

The following week, the energy looks more consistent, with readings mostly in the 300s and up to 467 (moderate). The swell direction swings around from SSW to SW, which is better for us. The standout appears to be around Saturday the 15th. We’re looking at a 3ft – 3ft SSW groundswell with a 17-second period, and the energy is reading 461 (moderate). The winds are light and offshore, setting up the best conditions of the whole period. It’s not going to be big, but it will be clean and have some push.

Throughout this second week, the swell remains small, so this isn't a window for beginners; it's too small to be fun. For the rest of you, the best bet is Blacks Beach, which is exposed to the west-northwest, but the swell is coming from the SSW. That means the better-shaped waves will be on the sets that wrap in. It can handle this kind of swell, but at these sizes, it might be a bit fat. The long 17-19 second period at a beach break can sometimes make the waves wall up and close out, so pick your peaks carefully.

So, that's the story. The early days are a write-off for quality surf. Don't get excited about the small bumps. But hold out for that window around the 15th of August. It’s still over a week away, so don’t book the time off yet, but it has the makings of being the best we’ll see. It won’t be epic, but it will be rideable and clean. Be patient, or get the kite out for the next few days.

Rusty.

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