Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, checking in with a look at the next couple of weeks for Blacks Beach. Let's cut through the data and talk about what it means for us in the water.

We're looking at a stretch where the swell is going to be a bit of a mixed bag, nothing huge, but it’s gonna take a while to shake off some funky wind directions. The water is sitting at 73°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a bonus, feels like summer’s hanging on.

The week starts off a bit messy. On Monday the 7th, we’ve got a solid 6 ft SSW swell running with a 13-second period, packing some moderate energy (1182). Problem is, the wind is cross-onshore from the NW at 9 mph, making things fairly choppy. The same story rolls into Tuesday the 8th, with the swell dropping to 4 ft and the period shortening to 10 seconds. The energy is still moderate (558), but those cross-onshore winds are just ruining the party. Not the best for a paddle, to be honest – if you’ve got a kite, the setup might look more interesting than a surfboard right now.

Wednesday the 9th sees a shift. The swell bottoms out to 2 ft, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds and the wind goes light onshore from the WNW. That’s a groundswell pulse, but it's small and the direction isn’t ideal for Blacks. It’s going to be a bit of a gamble. The long period means longer waits between sets, which can make paddling out easier, but those waves are going to be tricky at a beach break like this – better suited for a point or reef.

Thursday the 10th through Saturday the 12th is more of the same grind. Swell hangs around 2 ft to 3 ft, period stays long, but the wind keeps swinging cross-onshore or cross-shore from the SSW and SW. The energy is moderate (560 down to 314), but the quality just isn’t there. It’s marginal at best.

Now, for the standout. You have to look ahead to Saturday the 19th. On Saturday afternoon, we’ve got a tiny 3 ft SSW groundswell, but the period is a meaty 18 seconds, carrying moderate wave energy (667). The real kicker? The wind goes glassy – absolutely dead calm from the ENE at 0 mph. For a beach break like Blacks, that’s as good as it gets. The forecast is expecting very good surf conditions then. It’s a long way out, so don’t book your flights yet, but that Saturday afternoon window is the one to circle. The waves will be clean, smooth, and worth the wait.

The following days, Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st, the swell holds around 3 ft to 4 ft with that long period, but the winds turn light cross-onshore again. It’s still better than the first week, with energy picking back up (752), but it won’t beat that glassy Saturday afternoon.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off for quality surfing. Grit your teeth through it. The real light at the end of the tunnel is Saturday the 19th afternoon. That’s your best bet for a session that’ll remind you why we do this. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

Read more