Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, checking in from the local scene. It's a bit of a slow burner for the next couple of weeks, so let's get into it.

We're looking at a stretch that starts with a real nothing-burger. The first few days are flat and messy, so don't bother paddling out until things start to show a bit of life around the 21st. The water is sitting at a very unusual 73°F, which is a fair bit warmer than we'd expect for this time of year.

The first proper chance to get wet comes on Tuesday, July 21st. Blacks Beach is the only spot in the picture, and it's a tricky one. The swell is coming from the SSW at 4ft with a period of 16 seconds – that's a proper groundswell, but it's got a bit of a cross-onshore kick from the WSW at 9 mph, which will put a bit of a chop on the surface. The combined energy is moderate at 845, so there's some push there, but it's not exactly clean. The forecast calls it marginal, and I'd agree. Given the size and the conditions, it's really one for the advanced crew only.

The rest of that week and into the next is a real mixed bag of "marginal" and "poor" labels. The swell sticks around from the SSW, but the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the energy stays moderate. The real standout window starts to shape up around Monday, July 27th, and into Tuesday, July 28th. The swell picks up to 4ft to 5ft from the SSW, with periods around 17-18 seconds, and the combined energy jumps into the strong range (over 1000, hitting 1394 and 1485). The wind is light and mostly onshore, which is a shame, but for an exposed spot like Blacks, a light onshore is often better than a strong one. The size is getting up there – 5ft is starting to push into the "too big for beginners" territory, but it's a classic for the experienced surfer.

If I had to pick the best of the bunch, I'd circle Tuesday, July 28th. The morning shows a 5ft SSW swell with a 17-second period, and that cross-on wind from the WSW is only 6 mph – light enough to not ruin it completely. The afternoon pushes to 5ft with a 18-second period and the highest combined energy of the whole period at 1485. It's not perfect, but it's the closest we get to a proper, powerful winter groundswell.

After that, the swell fades again through the end of July and into August, dropping back to small, weak, and choppy. By August 1st, the combined energy is a paltry 28 to 33, so the boards will be staying on the rack.

The crowds at Blacks are "often," so if you're heading out on the 27th or 28th, expect plenty of company. It's the best on offer, but it's not a secret.

Stay keen, and keep an eye on the horizon. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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