Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next 16 days at Blacks Beach are a tough watch. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing exciting on the cards, with hardly any proper windows for a decent paddle. The whole outlook is a grind of small, messy, or just average conditions, so keep your expectations low.

Saturday 12 September kicks things off, and it’s a no-go. Swell is tiny at 3 ft from the SW, with a 14-second period that’s long but the combined energy (286) is weak, and the wind’s coming from the SW at 15 km/h (9 mph), blowing cross-onshore. It’s choppy, messy, and frankly, not worth suiting up for. That same story repeats through Sunday and Monday – the swell stays below 4 ft, periods vary, but the wind keeps it cross-onshore or cross-shore, making for poor surf. The combined energy nudges up to 378 on Monday, but it’s still not enough to save it.

We hit a blank run here with no meaningful improvement. Tuesday 15 September through most of the following week stay in the gutter: swell around 2 ft to 3 ft, periods from 14 to 19 seconds, but the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the combined energy stays under 500 most days. A couple of mornings on Wednesday 16 September and Thursday 17 September show marginal potential (scores of 1/10), but the swell is tiny (2 ft to 3 ft) and wind is light onshore, so you’re looking at knee-high slop at best. The crowd factor – often busy at Blacks – means even if it were clean, you’d be fighting for scraps.

Moving into the second week, Saturday 19 September morning shows a slight uptick: 3 ft of SW swell with a long 18-second period, combined energy hitting 516 (moderate), and a light onshore breeze from the W at 10 km/h (6 mph). It’s marginal, but maybe one to keep an eye on if you’re desperate. Sunday 20 September afternoon is similar: 3 ft SW swell, 18-second period, combined energy 664, light cross-onshore breeze. Still, it’s clean-ish but small, and the score is only 2/10 – not a standout by any measure. After that, Monday 21 September through to the end of the forecast on Sunday 27 September drifts back into poor or marginal conditions, with swell rarely hitting 3 ft and wind staying cross-onshore or onshore. The combined energy tops out at 707 on the Monday afternoon, but it’s still a messy picture.

The water temperature here is about average for the time of year – no anomaly noted, so no shock when you paddle out. Crowds are often present at Blacks, but with this run of poor surf, you might actually have it to yourself. If you’re itching for a paddle, the best bet is Sunday 20 September afternoon – a small, clean-ish window with light winds – but don’t expect more than waist-high mush. For beginners, the swell never hits 5 ft, so it’s never too big, but the quality is so poor it’s not worth the hassle. The long-period swells (18–19 seconds) are prone to lining up straight at a beach break like this, but with the size so small, it’s more of a theory than a reality.

Honestly, if you’re into kite surfing, the cross-onshore winds and small chop might offer more fun than a surfboard will. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game. Blanks like this happen here – it’s not unusual. Keep an eye on the longer-range outlook, but don’t hold your breath.

Stay patient,
Rusty

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