Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer for the next 16 days. Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing special before a glimmer of hope shows up, but it’s a real grind to get there.

First up, the water temp at Blacks Beach is sitting at a much warmer than normal 76°, which is a full 8° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, like swimming in a bathtub.

The pattern is grim. From Saturday the 8th all the way through to the end of the week, the surf is just not there. We’re talking weak, messy, and undersized. The combined swell energy is all over the place, starting at 411 (moderate) on Saturday morning, but the wave comment says “poor surf conditions” and the score is a flat zero. The wind is cross-on and it’s choppy. The swell is a tiny 3 ft from the SSW, with a long period of 17 seconds, but it’s just not wrapping in properly. That long period (groundswell) would normally be great for a point or reef, but with the wind blowing cross-on, it’s a washout. The rest of the first week is the same story – poor conditions, light to gentle breezes, and a constant “poor surf conditions” tag. The swell height barely budges from 2 ft to 3 ft. Honestly, it’s more of a kite-surfing breeze than a paddle session.

We hit a bit of a change from Wednesday the 12th onward. The combined energy starts to climb, hitting 509 (moderate) on Friday the 14th morning, and then 628 (strong) on Friday afternoon, all the way up to 704 (strong) on Saturday the 15th afternoon. The swell height finally touches 4 ft on that Saturday afternoon. But even then, the wave comments are still “marginal” or “poor.” The wind is mostly onshore or cross-on, so it’s never really clean. The swell direction stays stuck on SSW, which isn’t the optimum for this spot. The period is a decent 16 seconds, but the wind is the enemy.

The second week, from the 17th onward, the energy drops back down. The combined energy stays in the 200s and 300s (weak to moderate), and the swell is a pathetic 2 ft to 3 ft. It’s all poor or marginal. The whole 16-day window is a dud.

If I *had* to pick a standout, it’d be the Saturday afternoon of the 15th of August. The wave height hits 4 ft, the combined energy is 704 (strong), and the period is 16 seconds. That’s the biggest, most energetic surf of the whole period. But it’s a long-range call, and it’s not a sure thing. The wind is still onshore, so it’ll be lumpy. For a Blacks Beach that’s exposed and consistent, this is a disappointing run. It’s not a beginner-friendly size (over 5 ft for beginners, under 8 ft for experts), but with the wind as it is, it’s only for the die-hards who don’t mind a chop.

Stay tuned, things can change. But for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more