Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the line for us.

First up, I gotta be straight with you—this outlook is a tough one. There’s a long stretch ahead with very little to get excited about. We’re lookin’ at a solid run of poor surf conditions from Wednesday the 16th of September all the way through to Sunday the 27th. That’s nearly two weeks of mostly onshore wind and weak, messy swell. Not much to work with.

The only spot on the radar is Blacks Beach. It’s a consistent, exposed break that needs a good W-WNW swell to really fire, but we’re gettin’ a persistent SW-SSW pulse that’s just not matchin’ up right. The water temp is runnin’ about average for this time of year, so nothin’ unusual there.

Let’s break it down day by day.

Wednesday 16th and Thursday 17th: Onshore wind all the way, light breeze but it's comin' from the wrong direction. Swell is small, around 3 ft to 3 ft from the SSW with a very long period of 16–17 seconds. That long period means it’s got some push, but at a beach break like Blacks, it’ll just close out or wobble straight. The combined wave energy is moderate (348 to 493). Don’t bother.

Friday 18th: Same story. Swell drops a touch to 2 ft, still with a long period from the SW. Onshore wind again. The energy’s still moderate (475 to 497). No go.

Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th: A little change. Swell picks up to 3 ft–3 ft from the SW, period around 18 seconds. The wind is light and onshore still, but the energy is now moderate to strong (540 to 603). There’s a hint of something in the morning on Saturday—marginal at best. Not worth paddlin’ out for unless you’re desperate for a few small, cleanish waves. But it’s not gonna be good.

Monday 21st: The strongest energy of the whole run hits—724 on Monday morning. Swell is 4 ft from the SW, period 17 seconds. Still onshore wind though. This is a solid groundswell for sure, but the wind is killin’ it. The energy is strong, but the wind’s cross-onshore or onshore. You’d be fightin’ chop. For experts only if you’re bored.

Tuesday 22nd through Sunday 27th: Energy slowly fades from 470 down to 290. Swell stays small, 2 ft to 3 ft, mostly SW and SSW. Period drops from 16 seconds down to 12 seconds by the weekend. Onshore and cross-onshore winds. Thursday the 24th afternoon gets a bit windier with moderate breeze and possible rain showers. The whole stretch is a write-off.

Monday 28th to Wednesday 30th: A little flicker. Swell stays tiny (2 ft to 3 ft) but the period on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning gets back up to 16–18 seconds from the SW. Wind is light and onshore. Energy is moderate, around 386 to 506. Still marginal. By Wednesday the 30th the energy drops below 270 again. Still no standouts.

Thursday 1st October: The last day in the outlook. Swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the SW, period 18 seconds, but the wind comes from the NW—cross-onshore. Energy is weak (269). Not a single memorable wave in this whole run.

Honestly, if you’re lookin’ to get wet, this stretch is a dud. The best you’ll get is maybe a very brief window early on Saturday 19th or Monday 21st morning if you’re an expert and you don’t mind poor shape. For everyone else, leave the board in the car and go for a hike. It’s gonna be a long wait.

Rusty, out.

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