Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first recommendation doesn’t pop up until the morning of Friday, August 7th, and even then, it’s a real struggle. There’s a big gap of almost nothing worthwhile before we even get started.

The first break we’re looking at is Blacks Beach. This spot is an exposed point break that loves a solid WNW swell, but the ocean’s just not cooperating. The water temperature is sitting at 76°, which is a massive 8° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, and it makes the whole vibe feel a bit off.

On Friday morning, August 7th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW with a super long period of 19 seconds. The wind is light and offshore from the W at 6 mph, which is great for clean conditions, but the waves are just poor. The combined wave energy is moderate though, at 483, so there’s some energy in the water, but it’s not translating into anything surfable. It’s a real shame – the wind is perfect, but the swell is too small and straight. This continues right through the weekend and into the next week. The swell stays small, around 2ft to 4ft, mostly from the SSW or SW. Periods are all over the place, from 13 seconds up to 20 seconds, but the wave comment keeps saying “poor surf conditions” or “marginal.” The wind is often offshore or light, which should be a dream, but there’s just no push to the waves.

We don’t see any real improvement until the second week. On Friday, August 14th, the energy picks up a bit – 509 in the morning, 627 in the afternoon – and the swell is still small at 2ft to 3ft, but the wind is good, offshore from the WNW. The comment finally changes to “marginal,” which is better than nothing. This pattern hangs around for a few days. On Saturday, August 15th, the swell bumps up to 3ft in the morning and 4ft in the afternoon, with energy at 622 and 693. The wind stays offshore from the WNW. It’s still not great, but it’s the best we’ve got. Sunday, August 16th, is similar, with 4ft swell and offshore wind in the morning, but the wind picks up to 12 mph in the afternoon, making it choppy.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the afternoon of Saturday, August 22nd. The swell drops to 2ft, but check out the period – 21 seconds! That’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is strong at 625, and the wind is offshore from the WNW at 9 mph. For a point break like Blacks Beach, that long period could create some nice, lined-up waves, but it’s going to be very inconsistent, with long waits between sets. It’s a promising but less certain option for those who are patient and skilled.

The rest of the fortnight is a wash. Tuesday, August 18th, through to Friday, August 21st, is mostly “poor” with cross-onshore winds from the WNW at 9-12 mph, making it choppy and messy. The swell sits around 2ft to 3ft, but it’s just not worth paddling out for.

So, what’s the verdict? Honestly, there’s no single day that screams “go!” The best bet is the afternoon of Saturday, August 22nd, with that long-period groundswell and clean offshore wind, but it’s a gamble. The rest of the time, you’re looking at small, weak, or choppy conditions. If you’re a beginner, this swell is fine, but the quality isn’t there. For the experts, it’s a frustrating wait. This isn’t a time to get excited – it’s a time to watch the forecast and hope things change.

Stay patient, and keep your eyes on the horizon.

Rusty

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