Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this 16-day window for Blacks Beach is a tough one to call. The guidance points to a consistent break, but the reality from the forecast is a long, drawn-out stretch of small, weak surf that’s just not doing much. We’ve got a run starting from Friday, July 31st, with a little bit of energy, but honestly, it’s a struggle to find a window that’s worth paddling out for.

The only real glimmer of something half-decent is on Friday morning, July 31st. We’re looking at a 4 ft SSW swell, with a period of 14 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and it’s packing some moderate energy (612). The wind is light and blowing from the W, which is offshore for Blacks Beach, so the surface should be clean. But the score is a 1 out of 10, and the wave comment says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." So, it’s a tease. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

After that Friday morning window, it’s a massive gap. From Friday afternoon, July 31st, all the way through to Wednesday, August 12th, the forecast is full of "poor surf conditions" with flat, tiny waves. Swell heights drop to 1 ft to 2 ft, and the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, keeping things choppy and messy. There’s nothing to get excited about here. Even the longer period swells that show up around the 7th and 8th of August (19 seconds and 17 seconds) are too small and have poor wind conditions—gentle cross-onshore breezes just ruin any chance of a clean wave.

The first real hint of a pulse comes back on Wednesday afternoon, August 12th. We’ve got a 3 ft SW groundswell, period of 16 seconds, with moderate energy (574). The wind is a light offshore from the WNW, so the surface should be clean. It’s only a 1 out of 10 again, labeled "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," but it’s the best looking window in the second week. The swell direction is a bit off the optimum (WNW), but with a clean offshore wind, it might just offer a few fun ones if you’re patient.

The rest of the run into August 15th stays small and weak. Swells pop up with periods of 15-18 seconds, but the heights are 2 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is either onshore or cross-on again. The energy is there (consistently in the 300-500 range), but it’s not translating into the quality we need. The forecast is still full of "poor surf conditions."

So, what’s the call? The standout here is a narrow window: Friday morning, July 31st for a little bit of juice, but be prepared for a dicey tide. The other one to keep an eye on is Wednesday afternoon, August 12th, but that’s a long way off and less certain. For the rest of it, you’re looking at a lot of flat, blown-out days. Given the consistent nature of this break, it’s a bit of a bummer, but this is how it goes sometimes. Forecasts can change, and we might see a better pulse pop up, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the sky.

- Rusty

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