Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening in the water over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, it’s a frustrating stretch for Blacks Beach. The ocean is putting a lot of energy into the water, but the conditions are just not lining up for a proper paddle session. We’ve got some solid long-period groundswell rolling in, but it’s coming from the SSW, which is not the optimum direction for this spot. That means the waves are wrapping in but not holding their shape well, and the wind is almost always cross-onshore, messing with the surface.

The standout period is actually the very start, on Monday the 27th of July. Sure, the waves are only 4ft, but the swell period is a very long 18 to 19 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. The water temp is a wild 75°, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s freakishly warm, you’ll feel like you’re in the tropics. The combined energy is pumping at 1127 (moderate to strong), but here’s the kicker: the wind is a light 6 mph cross-on, and the forecast says "questionable tide conditions." It’s marginal, but that’s the best we’ve got. For a high-level break like this, it’s more of a fallback than a standout.

After Monday, it’s a downhill slide. Tuesday the 28th sees the swell holding at 5ft with a 17-second period, but the wind picks up to 9 mph from the SW, making it choppy. The energy drops to 983 (moderate), and it’s still cross-onshore. By Wednesday, the swell is fading to 4ft, and the energy is down to 660. The conditions are just plain marginal.

Then we hit a huge gap. From Thursday the 30th of July all the way through to Sunday the 9th of August, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The swell drops to tiny 1.0ft to 2ft, the period is all over the place, and the wave energy is weak (80 to 289). The wind is either onshore or light cross-on, but the waves are just pathetic. That’s a solid 10-day stretch of flat or poor surf.

The only flicker of life comes on Friday the 7th of August. The swell picks up to 3ft with a 18-second period, and the energy is back up to 502 (moderate). The wind is light from the WSW, but it’s still cross-onshore. The forecast says "marginal," so it’s not game on. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are similar, with 3ft and 4ft swell, but the wind is still a problem. For a spot as exposed as Blacks Beach, the constant cross-onshore wind is the killer.

Honestly, this is a tough read. The ocean is putting in the energy, but the wind and direction are just not with us. If you’re desperate, Monday the 27th is your best bet, but don’t expect magic. This is a stretch where the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the consistent cross-shore wind and moderate swell.

Rusty

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