Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming up.

First up, this is a long 16-day outlook, and honestly, it’s a tough one. There’s no real standout surf for the first handful of days, so we’re looking at a bit of a slow start. The first session worth paddling out for doesn’t really show up until later, so be patient.

The only break on offer here is Blacks Beach, exposed to WNW swells. The water’s sitting at 69°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you’ll notice it’s a little more pleasant than usual.

The whole period is plagued by mostly SSW swell, which isn’t ideal for this spot. The swell heights stay small, mostly between 1 ft and 5 ft, with periods that are long – often between 14 and 20 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, which means better shape and energy, but with such a small size, it’s not going to be powerful. The combined energy (506) on the first Sunday morning is weak, and it stays weak-to-moderate for most of the run, peaking around 917 on Monday afternoon, July 20th, which is still only moderate.

The wind is the real killer here. For the first week and a half, it’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and often a moderate breeze. That’s going to chop things up and keep the surf messy. There are a few mornings with light breezes or even a slight air, but the conditions are consistently described as poor or marginal. The break quality just isn’t there.

The closest thing to a standout is a small window around Wednesday, July 8th, through Thursday, July 9th. You’ve got a consistent 3 ft to 4 ft SSW swell, with a period around 16 seconds – solid groundswell for the size. The wind is a light breeze, but it’s cross-onshore, so there’ll be a little texture. The combined energy sits in the mid-to-high 600s to low 800s (801 on Wednesday morning), which is moderate. It’s not going to be epic, but for an advanced break like this, it’s the best you’ll get in the first week.

The real best on offer is Monday morning and afternoon, July 20th. That’s the last day of the outlook. Swell bumps up to 4 ft to 5 ft from the SSW, with a period of 14 to 15 seconds. Combined energy hits 694 in the morning and peaks at 917 in the afternoon – that’s the highest of the whole run. The wind is light and offshore for both sessions (WSW and W). That’s glassy or near-glassy conditions for Blacks Beach, and that makes a huge difference. The water will be clean, the lines will be long, and with that groundswell, the sets will have some punch. This is the one to aim for. It’s more than a week away, so keep an eye on it – forecasts can shift, but this window has promise.

For the rest of the time, especially the long gap between July 11th and July 17th, the surf is poor and small. If you’re desperate, the mornings generally have the cleanest wind, but it’s not worth getting excited about. Given the consistent onshore winds and small swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days.

Stay patient, mark that Monday the 20th on your calendar, and hope the models hold.

Rusty

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