Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long stretch ahead, but honestly, for the first week-plus, it’s a bit of a quiet one. The main break on the radar is Blacks Beach, and it’s a spot that’s consistent and exposed, but the swell energy just isn’t cooperating for a good while. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The pattern starts off with a very long period groundswell from the SSW, but the energy is weak to moderate (combined energy around 411). The problem is the wind – it’s onshore or cross-onshore most of the time, and the surf quality is just poor. The swell is small, 3 ft, and that long period (17 seconds) is a groundswell, but with the wind chopping it up, it’s not doing us any favors. For a spot like Blacks, which is a beach break, that long period can make it break a bit too straight, so it’s not the best fit right now.

This continues right through the first week. From Saturday the 8th all the way to Friday the 14th, it’s a grim run of small surf (2 ft to 3 ft) and persistent onshore or cross-onshore winds. The combined energy fluctuates between 298 and 509 (moderate), but it’s all poor surf conditions. The one tiny glimmer is on Friday morning the 14th – the wind drops to a light breeze, and the swell period is still a solid 18 seconds from the SSW. The combined energy jumps to 509 (moderate), and the wave comment calls it “marginal.” It’s not great, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. Still, it’s only 2 ft, and that wave is mostly for the die-hards.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th sees a slight bump in swell size, up to 4 ft, but that’s accompanied by a moderate cross-onshore breeze and choppy conditions. The combined energy hits 700 (moderate), but the quality is still poor. This is a classic case of “looks bigger, feels worse.”

From the 17th through the 23rd, it’s more of the same – small swell, 2 ft to 3 ft, with a mix of onshore and cross-onshore winds. The energy stays moderate (248 to 501), but the surf quality remains poor. There’s no standout day in this stretch. It’s a long, flat-feeling run.

If I had to pick the best of what’s on offer, it’s that Friday morning the 14th. With a light wind and a 2 ft, 18-second groundswell, you might find a clean, glassy wave if you’re patient. But it’s marginal, and the crowds are likely at Blacks since it’s often busy. The swell direction (SSW) is not the optimum for Blacks (WNW), so it’s not going to be the best shape. Still, it’s the only window with any real potential. The rest of the outlook is a write-off for a good surf.

Rusty.

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