Blacks Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for our part of the coast.

Straight up, I’ve got to be honest with you – this 16-day outlook is a bit of a tough one. We’ve got a run of surfable days kicking off from Monday, July 27th, but the quality is marginal at best for most of it. The water's sitting at a balmy 75°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than usual for this time of year – you’ll feel that difference, no wetsuit needed.

The swell we’re working with is a long-period groundswell from the SSW, with periods hitting 18-19 seconds, so there’s proper energy in the water. The combined energy is pumping around 1127 to 1202 (strong to very strong), but the problem is the wind. It’s a persistent cross-onshore breeze from the WSW to SW, which is going to leave that surface a bit messy. For a spot like Blacks Beach, which is an exposed, consistent, advanced break, this is a classic "so close, yet so far" scenario. The wind is just not cooperating for those early days, and the wave comment is "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions".

Monday, July 27th, morning and afternoon, we’re looking at 4 ft of SSW swell with that 18-19 second period, but the cross-on wind at 6 mph will keep things from being pristine. The score is low, and honestly, it’s not going to be the best representation of what Blacks can do. Tuesday and Wednesday are similar, with the swell holding around 4 ft to 5 ft, but the wind stays cross-on and picks up a little, making it fairly choppy out there.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Thursday, July 30th, right through to the start of August, the surf drops right off. We’re looking at small, weak swells – often under 3 ft – and the winds go straight onshore. The combined energy drops to 47-228 (weak to moderate), so it’s pretty much a flat spell with poor conditions. That’s a solid 5-day gap with nothing worth paddling out for.

The second week doesn’t offer much redemption. From Monday, August 3rd, through to Tuesday, August 11th, it’s a consistent run of poor surf conditions. The swell stays tiny, between 1 ft and 3 ft, with onshore or cross-onshore winds. The energy is low, and the wave comments are all "poor surf conditions". There’s a little flicker of hope on the 7th and 8th of August as the swell bumps up to 3 ft with a long period, but the onshore wind and light wind state mean it’s still not going to be good.

The one true standout? I'm struggling to pick a winner here. The best bet, if you're desperate, is the very start of the period. The Monday 27th and Tuesday 28th of July have the most size and energy, but the wind is going to be a buzzkill. Because of that cross-onshore breeze and the marginal quality, I wouldn't call this a classic. For a less picky surfer, the 4 ft SSW swell with that long period might offer some freight trains, but it’s going to be bumpy. The crowds at Blacks are often there, so expect company.

If you’re a kitesurfer, this setup might look more interesting than a paddle session, especially with the strong energy and persistent cross-wind. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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