15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for 15th Street. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and messy surf ahead. The first real pulse of energy doesn’t show up until late in the game, and even that has its issues. But we’ll get to that.

Right off the bat, the next week to ten days is a write-off. We’re looking at waves in the 2ft to 3ft range, with short-period, weak swells. The wave energy is low, averaging around 300-500 units, which is just nothing. It’s not going to get you anywhere. On top of that, the wind is mostly onshore, so it’s going to be bumpy and crumbly. There’s no point even thinking about paddling out. This is a good time to fix your dings, sort out your quiver, or just catch up on sleep. This poor spell is gapped out and looks to run from August 14th through to about the 24th.

The one thing you’ll notice is the water. When we finally do get something rideable, you’ll feel it. The water temp is sitting at 74°, which is a solid 6° warmer than average for this time of year. That’s a seriously unusual anomaly, so be ready for a warm, bath-like ocean.

Now, hold on. The end of the window has some substance. Around August 25th, we finally see some proper swell energy showing up. A new south swell pushes through, with heights jumping to 5ft to 6ft. The collective energy is strong, hitting around 1500 to 1900 units. That’s the kind of energy that gets your heart rate up. But, and there’s always a but, it’s a cross-onshore breeze that’s messing it up. The period is around 15-16 seconds, so it’s got some push, but that wind won't help with the shape. This is when the spot gets interesting for the more experienced crew. The waves will have some size, but it's going to be a bit lumpy and onshore, not the clean, groomed stuff you dream about. This is the standout period, but it feels more like a battle than a blessing. It’s not for the faint-hearted or beginners, as the size gets up over 5ft.

After that initial push, the energy slowly fades as we move into the final days of the month. Swell drops back to the 3ft to 5ft range, with the period shortening. The wind stays mostly cross-onshore, so it stays a bit lumpy. There’s still surf to be had, but the quality will be average at best. It looks like a couple of mini pulses, nothing that will knock your socks off.

So, here’s the plan: skip the first 10 days, it’s a waste of time. Circle August 25th and 26th on your calendar. That’s the most promise on offer, with some real size and power. But be prepared to work for them and have the right board. The rest of the window after that has waves, but they're inconsistent and less clean. It’s not a total blowout, but this forecast is a long way from a classic.

Rusty

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