15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for 15th Street over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water is running at 76°F right now, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 8°F above average. That’s a real treat if you’re jumping in without a full suit.

Now, the bad news: the start of this forecast is a bit of a dud. The first few days are pretty much a write-off. Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are showing poor surf conditions, so don’t bother paddling out. There’s a bit of energy in the water – but the winds are onshore and the quality just isn’t there.

We start to see a glimmer of hope on Friday the 4th. The swell picks up a touch, with a 3ft to 4ft SSW groundswell pushing through. The period is a solid 16 to 17 seconds, meaning long lines and good shape, but it's still a marginal call. The wind is cross-onshore or onshore, so it’s not clean.

Saturday the 5th is similar – 3ft to 4ft of SSW swell with that long period, but the wind stays onshore. Still marginal.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday afternoon on the 6th of September is the standout of the whole forecast. We’ve got a 5ft S swell, period dropping to 13 seconds. More importantly, the wind goes glassy. Absolutely dead calm. That’s the window you want. The report says excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers, and I’d back that. At 5ft, it’s not for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of time in the water, this is the session to target. Clean, lined-up sets. The only downside is the crowd factor – 15th Street is often busy, so expect company.

Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th are still rideable with 5ft to 6ft SSW swell and onshore winds, but it’s not the same quality as that Sunday glass-off. After that, the swell tails off. From Wednesday the 9th onward, we drop under 4ft and things go fizzle. By the second week, it’s mostly poor surf with small, weak swells and onshore or cross-onshore wind. Nothing worth getting excited about until Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th, where we see a few pulses of very long-period SSW/SW swell (18 to 21 seconds), but only at 2ft to 2ft. That’s tiny, and even with excellent period, it’s not going to do much at a beach-and-reef setup like this.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Sunday afternoon, September 6th. Get on it early, watch for the glass-off, and you’ll have some fun, clean 5ft sets. Everything else in the fortnight is either poor or marginal. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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