15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty.

Alright, let's be straight with you. The outlook for 15th Street is a bit of a tough one over the next 16 days. We've got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions before a late surge of energy that could be promising.

The water temp is sitting at 75°, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year. It's very unusual – you'll be in for a warm session if you get in.

For the first two weeks, from Wednesday the 12th through to the 26th, it's a real struggle. The swell is tiny, mostly between 2ft and 3ft, and while the wind is often offshore and light, the wave quality is just poor. The combined swell energy is weak, sitting in the 100 to 600 range (349 to 468). The best you'll get is a "marginal" call on Thursday the 13th, Friday the 14th, and Saturday the 15th, with a small bump up to 4ft on Saturday afternoon. But honestly, it's only for the very keen on a longboard. The period is long, around 15 to 18 seconds, which is a proper groundswell, but with so little height, it just doesn't have the push. This spot is a beach and reef combo, so that long period might make it a bit soft and straight.

Then the real blank patch hits. From Sunday the 16th right through to Wednesday the 26th, it's all "poor surf conditions" with scores of 0 out of 10. The swell drops to 2ft, and cross-onshore winds start to creep in, messing up the surface. It's a consistent spot, so this kind of lull can happen, but it's still a bummer.

Now, hang in there, because there's a flicker of hope right at the end. On Thursday the 27th, things change. Morning brings a solid jump in swell to 4ft from the S, with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy leaps to 1230, which is strong and very noticeable. The wind is a light cross-onshore, so it's not perfect, but it's a massive improvement. Then, in the afternoon, it gets good. The wind swings to a glassy NNE at just 3 mph, turning the surface to glass. The swell is still 4ft from the S (13 seconds, energy 945), and the conditions are described as "very good." This is definitely the standout of the whole 16-day window. It's small enough for beginners but has enough push to be fun on a shortboard too. Given the crowds are "often" there, expect a few others to have the same idea.

So, to sum it up: a lot of flat and poor stuff, but if you can wait until the afternoon of Thursday the 27th, you'll be rewarded with clean, glassy waves. It's a week and a half away, so keep an eye on the forecast, but it's looking like the best bet.

Rusty.

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