15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are shaping up to be a bit of a slow cooker around here. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy groundswell for 15th Street, and honestly, it’s going to be a real game of patience. The water is sitting at 70°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small comfort.

We kick off the outlook on Thursday, August 20th with a cloudy afternoon and a light cross-on breeze. The swell is a tiny 3 ft from the SSW, pushing a weak 280 units of combined energy. It’s poor surf conditions, and not worth paddling out for. The next few days follow a similar pattern – small, onshore winds, and combined energy mostly in the low to mid-hundreds. Friday the 21st through to Monday the 24th are all marginal at best, with waves hanging around 2 ft to 3 ft. The wind is light and usually offshore in the mornings, but there’s just not enough push in the water to make anything rideable.

We start to see a bump in swell energy around Tuesday the 25th, with combined energy rising to 515 and then 676 units, but the swell is still only 2 ft to 3 ft. It’s marginal, and the wind stays light and offshore, but it’s not enough to get excited about. The story continues through the end of August and into early September: the swell height slowly climbs to 4 ft on Wednesday the 26th, and the combined energy touches 897 units, but it’s still a cross-on breeze and the waves are messy. The real standout arrives later.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Friday, September 4th, we’ve got a proper injection of groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 1198 units in the morning, and 1425 units in the afternoon – that’s strong energy, no doubt. The swell is 4 ft to 4 ft from the SSW, with a period of 18 seconds dropping to 17 seconds. That long period means it’s a deep-water groundswell, and it’ll have real shape and power, but it’s also going to break a bit straight at a beach break like 15th Street. The wind is light and cross-on in the morning, which is a bit of a bummer, but it’s still a clean enough setup for a decent session. The afternoon sees a cross-shore breeze from the south, which could offer some workable shoulders. This is the best window of the 16 days, but it’s a long-range promise, so keep an eye on the updates.

For the rest of the period, from around August 27th to September 3rd, it’s a long stretch of marginal surf. The swell is mostly 2 ft to 5 ft, with combined energy bouncing between 400 and 900 units. The wind is mostly light and cross-on, which keeps things choppy and unappealing. There’s a period of clean, offshore winds in the mornings on a few days, but the waves are just too small to get excited about. The crowd potential is a factor too – 15th Street is often busy, so when it’s this small, it’s going to be a bit of a scrum for the few rideable waves.

In short, the first week and a half is a slog. The best bet is to pencil in Friday, September 4th, for a proper session. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only real standout in the 16-day window. The rest of the time, you’re better off waiting for the next proper swell.

Rusty

Read more