15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the surf is going to be a bit of a struggle. For the first week and a half, we’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions and marginal surf. The setup at 15th Street is a beach and reef combo that’s pretty exposed to the swell, but the numbers just aren’t coming together. From Saturday, August 29th, right through to Sunday, September 6th, nearly every session is flagged as marginal or poor. The wind is mostly light and offshore – that’s a positive – but the swell is small, weak, and the wave quality is just not there. The combined energy is mostly in the low to moderate range, between 362 and 941 (units), and the swell period is mostly long, which is good for shape, but the height is just too small to get excited about. The water is running at 77°F, which is a massive 9°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s super unusual, so you’ll be in for a warm bath at least.

Now, we do have a brief window that catches my eye. Monday, September 7th, the swell starts to build. The morning shows a 5ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, and it’s pushing moderate energy of 986 (units). The wind is light and offshore from the west at 6 mph. That’s clean. It’s still flagged as marginal, but it’s the best we’ve seen in over a week. By the afternoon, it bumps up to 6ft, and the energy jumps to 1171 (units). This is the pick of the early window.

But the real standout is Tuesday, September 8th. This is the one to circle on your calendar. Tuesday morning we’ve got an 8ft SSW swell, with offshore wind from the WNW at 6 mph – that’s glassy. The combined energy is a strong 2103 (units). That’s a lot of power. It’s getting big, though. By Tuesday afternoon, the swell is predicted to be 13ft. That’s serious. The energy is 4167 (units) – very strong. The wind is still offshore, and the conditions are favorable, but honestly, this is only for experts. That’s a heavy, powerful wave. Beginners should stay well clear.

After that, Wednesday, September 9th, the swell drops back to 5ft, but the period is a short 8 seconds, which is messy and weak. From there, it fades into poor small surf again for the rest of the period.

So, for the best surf on offer, it’s a narrow window. If you’re an experienced surfer, you want to be out at 15th Street on Tuesday, September 8th. The morning will be big and clean, but the afternoon will be huge. For the average surfer, Monday, September 7th, is the better bet – 5ft to 6ft, offshore, and with decent energy. It’s not perfect, but it’s the most accessible good wave in the whole 16-day run.

Rusty.

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