15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Right now, we’re looking at a pretty quiet run. The surf is small and the energy is weak, so don’t expect much action for a while. From Saturday 29th August through to the end of the first week, we’re stuck with small, marginal surf. The combined energy sits around 731 to 427, which is weak, and the swell is mostly around 3 ft to 4 ft with a long period from the SSW. That long period (15–16 seconds) means the waves are groundswell, but they’re just too small to get excited about. The wind is offshore or light for most of this stretch, so the conditions are clean, but the lack of size and power means it’s barely worth a paddle.

There’s a real gap in quality here. The first few days are all rated as marginal or poor, with a score of 1 or 0 out of 10. That’s a long stretch of nothing. The best wave of the whole period doesn’t show up until Monday 7th September, when the swell starts to build. On Monday morning, we get a 5 ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 1377 – that’s moderate energy. The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s clean enough. By Monday afternoon, the swell pushes to 6 ft from the S, with a 13-second period and energy at 1527. That’s the standout moment of the entire forecast. It’s still not huge, but it’s the most size and power we’ll see.

Then on Tuesday 8th September, things get interesting. The morning brings a 8 ft SSW swell with an 11-second period and energy at 1615. That’s the biggest swell of the run, and the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-offshore from the S, which will keep the waves clean. But 8 ft is getting into expert territory, especially at a beach and reef break like 15th Street. The swell direction is from the SSW, which matches the optimum swell direction of WSW pretty well, but the period is shorter, so it’ll be a bit more jumbled. The afternoon sees the swell drop to 6 ft, but the wind cranks up to 45 km/h from the SSE, which is too strong for clean surf.

After that, the surf fades fast. From Wednesday 9th September onward, we’re back to small, weak swell, with energy dropping below 600 and wave heights around 2 ft to 3 ft. The long period returns (15–18 seconds), but the size is gone. The wind stays offshore for most of it, but there’s just no power to work with. The last decent-looking day is Thursday 10th September, with a 3 ft SW swell at 17 seconds, but it’s still marginal.

Overall, the best bet is Monday 7th September. That 6 ft S swell with 13-second period and moderate energy is the pick of the lot. If you’re an experienced surfer, Tuesday morning’s 8 ft SSW swell could also be worth a look, but it’s bigger and shorter-period, so it’s not as clean. Crowds are possible at 15th Street, as it’s often busy, so keep that in mind.

Water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Rusty.

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