15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the next 16 days for our little stretch of coast. I won’t sugar-coat it – this is a long, flat, and frustrating outlook. For a spot that’s usually consistent, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing for the best part of the first week. The water temperature is sitting at 72° which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won’t be feeling it while you’re sitting on your board staring at a flat ocean.

The next surf window of any kind doesn’t appear until around Wednesday the 16th of September, and even then, it’s purely marginal. The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore for the first week, with a light breeze here and there, but it’s paired with poor surf conditions across the board. The only break on offer here is 15th Street, a beach-and-reef setup that’s exposed to a WSW swell. That optimum direction matches up with the SW swells we're seeing, but the quality just isn’t there.

For the start of the period – Friday the 11th through to Tuesday the 15th – it’s a write-off. Swells are tiny, weak, and messy. On Friday afternoon, we’ve got a 3ft SW groundswell with a period of 15 seconds and weak energy (402), but it’s cross-shore wind that’s chopping it up. Saturday and Sunday are even smaller.

The first glimmer of anything halfway worth paddling out for comes on Wednesday the 16th of September. The early morning shows a 3ft SSW swell with a period of 17 seconds, combined energy climbing to moderate (526), and a light onshore wind that might just keep it rideable. It’s still only a marginal call – scores a 1 – so don’t get too excited. Thursday the 17th afternoon sees a 3ft SSW swell, period 15 seconds, energy strong (547), but the wind is onshore and it’s only a 1 out of 10. This same pattern repeats through Friday the 18th (2ft SW, 19 second period, 544 energy) – it’s long-period groundswell with decent energy, but the shape will be tough on a beachy setup. Point breaks would love this, but here it’s a constant battle.

Finally, the standout, if you can call it that, lands on Saturday the 19th of September for the morning session. The swell is 3ft from the SW with an 18-second period. The combined energy is a solid 548. The wind is a light cross-shore breeze from the WSW, which is about as good as it’s going to get for 15th Street. It’s the only session that scores a 2, and with light wind ripples and a bit of energy in the water, there might be the odd clean, workable wave for an experienced surfer who knows the bank. Crowds are likely here, and this setup is inconsistent at best, so getting a nugget will take patience. After that, Sunday the 20th morning offers similar energy (708) but the same marginal verdict, then it fades back into poor through the end of the window.

So, the honest truth? If you’ve got a kite, the moderate energy in the second week (400-700 range) with consistent onshore wind might actually make for a better session than a paddle. For the surfers, Saturday the 19th morning is your best bet, but keep expectations in the gutter. We’re in a slow, sleepy pattern, and it might take a storm somewhere out there to wake things up.

Rusty.

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