15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, checking in on the local surf scene, and I'll be straight with ya – it's a bit of a slow burn over the coming days and weeks. We've got a 16-day window, but honestly, right now the ocean's not really playing ball. For a consistent spot like 15th Street (a beach and reef setup), we're looking at a pretty dry start. There's no real standout to get excited about in the first week. The wind's mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell heights are just hanging around the 3ft to 3ft mark, which is small and lacking any real grunt. The forecast scores are low, and the wave comments are all "marginal" or "poor". The water temp is 69°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's not gonna help the waves. There's a small window from Saturday morning (July 4th) with a 3ft SSW swell, but the wind is cross-onshore, making for some rippled, messy conditions. It's pretty disheartening, but that's how it goes sometimes. We then have a long gap through to the end of the first week with no improvements at all.

Looking deeper into the outlook, there's really only one brief moment that might get the pulse going. Thursday morning, July 16th, sees the swell drop to 2ft from the SW with a period of 16 seconds. The wind goes offshore from the WNW at 3 mph, which would be dead glassy – a proper positive. But the swell is just too small to get excited about, and the wave comment says "poor surf conditions". The combined energy is low at 185, so it's not worth paddling out for.

The real kicker is that after that, we jump to a slightly bigger swell arriving on Saturday morning, July 18th, with a 3ft SW swell at 17 seconds. The offshore wind from the SSW at 12 mph is actually cross-shore, creating a bit of a chop. The combined energy is moderate at 609, but the wave comment is still "marginal". The crowd profile is "often", so expect company, and the break is consistent, so it might have a few workable waves. But honestly, with the onshore/cross-onshore winds dominating the whole window, it's not a clean picture. The swell direction (SSW) is close to the optimum (WSW), but it's not a match.

So to be honest, the next 16 days are a bit of a write-off for decent waves. The wind is mostly rubbish, and the swell just isn't delivering. If you're really keen, maybe keep an eye on that Saturday morning (July 18th), but I wouldn't be making any plans around it. The rest is just a waiting game. This area can be fickle, and sometimes you just get a flat spell. Fingers crossed the forecasts change.

Rusty.

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