15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on offer over the next couple of weeks.

Alright, straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this is a pretty flat run for 15th Street. The whole 16-day window is looking marginal at best, and for the first few days, it's a bit of a write-off. We're looking at small, weak swells and a lot of onshore and cross-onshore winds messing up the surface. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is a massive 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's very unusual, almost like a warm bath, but don't let that fool you, the surf is struggling.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th of July is a no-go. Swell is tiny, around 3 ft, and the wind is either cross-onshore or onshore, making for choppy, poor surf. The combined energy is weak (476 to 695). Not worth paddling out.

Through the week of the 20th to the 24th of July, it's a bit of a grind. Swell sits around 3 ft to 4 ft from the SSW, with moderate energy around 500-600. The wind flips between light cross-onshore and onshore, so it's not clean, but maybe a log could get a few grovelly ones. The 24th of July has a really long period 24-second swell, but it's only 2 ft to 2 ft – that's a lot of energy (898) for no size, so it'll be fat and slow.

The third week starts looking a touch more interesting. From the 25th of July onwards, the swell ticks up a notch. The morning of the 25th has a 3 ft SSW swell with a 21-second period and strong combined energy (1016), but the cross-onshore wind is still there. The 26th and 27th of July bring a bit more size, with the swell hitting 3 ft to 4 ft, and the energy is climbing into the 1000s (1087 on the 26th, 1367 on the 27th). The wind is light and onshore or cross-onshore, so it's still a bit bumpy, but it's getting better.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of the 27th of July. Swell is 4 ft from the SSW at 18 seconds, with a solid combined energy of 1367. The wind is light onshore, so it'll be a bit soft, but that's the best wave height and energy combo we've seen. The 28th of July also holds similar numbers (4 ft, 1278 energy), but it's cross-onshore again.

Now, for the end of the month and into the first week of August, things get a bit bigger, but not necessarily better. The 31st of July sees a 7 ft swell from the S at 14 seconds, with massive energy (1987) – that's a lot of water moving. But the wind is onshore, and with that size, it's going to be a messy, stormy mess. That's expert-only territory, and even then, it's not clean. The 1st of August is similar, with 6 ft to 6 ft from the S and SSW, still onshore wind. Then the 2nd of August drops off quickly, with the period crashing to 8-9 seconds and the energy falling to 312, so it's back to poor surf.

Honestly, if you're looking for a paddle, the best bet is the morning of the 27th of July. It's the only day where the swell is pushing a decent size (4 ft) with decent energy (1367) and a light wind. It's still marginal, but it's the best of a bad bunch. The rest of the time, this setup is looking more like a kite session than a surf one, given the onshore winds and average quality.

Stay patient, keep your eyes on the charts, and don't be surprised if the forecast shifts. It's a flat spell, but it won't last forever.

Rusty

Read more