15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a slow burn for the next few weeks. We’ve got a 16-day window here, but the first few days are proper messy. There’s some solid energy in the water, but the wind is just not playing ball. The first real chance to get wet comes on Sunday, 26 July, but it’s a tough call.

The water is sitting at a very unusual 74°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a wild anomaly, so don’t expect a cold water shock.

15th Street is our only option in the frame. It’s a beach and reef set-up, consistent, and exposed to the swell. The best direction from the swell is WSW, and we’ve got a long-period SW groundswell coming in at 4 ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s a very long period, which means it’s going to be a proper groundswell with plenty of energy behind it (787). The downside? The wind is blowing onshore from the WSW at 9 mph. With that wind, and the swell being a bit gutless for the size, it’s a marginal call. The wave energy is moderate (787), but the quality is just not there. It’s a pass for me.

Monday, 27 July, sees a bit of a bump up to 4 ft, still from the SSW. The period is a ridiculous 18-19 seconds, which is a very long wait between sets. The combined energy really kicks up into the strong range (1165-1233), but the wind is cross-onshore all day, turning the surface into a bit of a mess. It’s a big energy swell, but it’s being spoiled by the wind. A real shame.

Tuesday and Wednesday, 28 and 29 July, are more of the same: 4 ft to 4 ft, long period, cross-onshore wind. The energy is still strong (1112-1312), but the conditions are just “gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy.” It’s frustrating because the swell is there, but the wind is ruining it.

The best chance for a decent wave actually looks like Thursday, 30 July, through Friday, 31 July. The swell dips a little in period to 13-14 seconds, which is still solid, but the height bumps up to 6 ft to 6 ft. The wind finally turns offshore on Thursday afternoon and all day Friday, coming from the W and WNW at 6-9 mph. That’s clean. The energy is still strong (1050-1186). For a beach and reef break, this is your window. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best of a tricky bunch. Keep in mind, with a swell over 5 ft, it’s getting a bit too much for beginners, but for the average surfer, it’s a solid option.

Saturday, 1 August, drops off a little to 5 ft, with the wind turning cross-onshore again. The energy drops to moderate (638-679). It’s not as good.

And then, from Sunday, 2 August, all the way through to Monday, 10 August, the surf just dies. We’re looking at 1 ft to 3 ft, either cross-onshore or onshore wind, with poor surf conditions. The energy is weak to moderate (125-550). There’s a blip on 6 August with a very long period (21 seconds) but only 1 ft of swell, so it’s nothing. That’s a solid nine-day stretch of flatness. Not much to say, except maybe grab a beer and watch the horizon.

So, the standout here is the window from Thursday, 30 July, to Friday, 31 July. The swell is up around 6 ft to 6 ft from the S, with a 13-14 second period, and the wind finally goes offshore. The energy is strong (1050-1186). It’s not a world-class day, but it’s the only clean, surfable swell in the whole run. The crowd is “often” there, so expect company.

After that, it’s a long wait for the next pulse. Keep your eyes peeled, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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