15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Looking at the 16-day window, we’ve got a bit of a slow starter here at 15th Street (beach and reef). The water is sitting at 75°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s over three degrees above average, unusual for sure. The first few days are honestly pretty marginal, with a persistent cross-onshore wind that’s making things choppy and messy. We don’t see any true standout quality until the end of the first week, and even then it’s a case of picking the least average sessions.

The pattern starts from Thursday 23rd July with a 4 ft swell from the south at 13 seconds, but cross-onshore wind from the west-northwest at 9 mph and marginal conditions keep the score low. Friday morning the 24th drops to 2 ft, period jumps to 24 seconds, but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. Saturday and Sunday the 25th and 26th stay in the same boat – 3 ft to 4 ft, short period, light to gentle cross-onshore winds, and only marginal surf. The swell energy is moderate though, sitting around 679 (Thursday) to 924 (Saturday morning) to 1006 (Sunday morning), so there’s some push but the wind is ruining the shape.

Things pick up slightly on Monday 27th and Tuesday 28th July. Swell height pushes to 4 ft – 5 ft from the south-southwest, period around 17-19 seconds, which is a decent groundswell. The wind is still cross-onshore, but lighter on the Tuesday morning at 6 mph, and the combined energy jumps to 1153 (Monday morning) and 1180 (Tuesday morning), so moderate-strong energy. Still, it’s called marginal, and it’s not breaking clean. The wave setup at a beach and reef under cross-onshore chop means it’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now.

Wednesday 29th and Thursday 30th July drop back – 4 ft to 4 ft, period 15-16 seconds, light winds but still cross-onshore. The energy fades to 678-859. Not much to write home about.

Now, the closest thing to a standout comes on Friday 31st July morning, with a 4 ft south swell at 15 seconds, light cross-onshore breeze, and combined energy hitting 1406 – strong. That afternoon, the swell jumps to 6 ft from the south, 14 seconds, with light onshore wind. At 6 ft, it’s getting solid for intermediate and experienced surfers, but still cross-onshore keeps it from being perfect. The best single session is probably Saturday 1st August morning: 7 ft south swell, 13 seconds, combined energy 1482 (very strong), but again cross-onshore wind at 9 mph. At 7 ft, that’s getting into expert-only territory for a beach break, and the cross-onshore wind will make it a bit of a battle. Still, the energy is there. Saturday afternoon drops to 6 ft.

After that, from Sunday 2nd August onward, the surf fades fast. Sunday morning is 5 ft, 11 seconds, energy 565 (moderate), and then it goes downhill. Sunday afternoon through to Wednesday 5th August is poor, with swell dropping to 2 ft – 3 ft, short period 8-9 seconds, and energy below 300. The commentary says “poor surf conditions,” and I’d agree. Wave heights bottom out on Thursday 6th August at 2 ft, and the final day, Friday 7th August, sees a small 3 ft to 3 ft south swell at 11-12 seconds, but it’s still poor.

Honestly, there’s no standout clean session here. The best of a bad lot is the 7 ft swell on Saturday 1st August morning, but with cross-onshore wind, it’s rough. If you’re a strong paddler and don’t mind chop, that’s your window. Otherwise, the whole 16 days is a write-off for quality waves.

Rusty.

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