15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s comin’ our way.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next week and a half is a bit of a heartbreaker. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with barely a whisper of rideable waves. The first real glimmer of anything worth paddling for doesn’t show up until Thursday the 13th, and even then it’s a marginal call. From now until the 12th, you’re better off fixing a ding or making friends with the wind.

15th Street is the only game in town, a consistent beach and reef setup that’s exposed to the swell. The water’s about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The trouble is, the wind is mostly onshore, swinging from WSW to WNW, and the swell is small and weak. We’re talking a bumpy 2 ft to 2 ft from the SSW and SW, with a long period (13-18 seconds) that suggests real energy moving through, but the wind just kills it. The combined energy is weak to moderate, ranging from 324 to 471, but it’s all messy.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th offer a tiny bit of hope. Mornings with a light breeze and a 2 ft to 3 ft SW swell (16-18 second period) might be just about surfable if you’re desperate. The energy picks up a bit on Friday afternoon, hitting 704, but it’s still marginal. I’d call it a one-star day at best.

Saturday the 15th morning sees a 3 ft SSW swell, and the afternoon bumps up to 4 ft with the same direction. The wind stays onshore, though, so it’s going to be lumpy. The combined energy climbs to 720, but the quality just isn’t there. Sunday the 16th is more of the same – 4 ft in the morning, dropping off again.

Then the bottom falls out. From Monday the 17th all the way through to Sunday the 23rd, it’s a grim run of poor surf with waves never getting above 3 ft. The wind is relentless, onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is all over the place. You’ll see a 4 ft W swell on Saturday the 22nd, but with a short period of 8 seconds, it’s going to be weak and unorganized.

The only standout in this whole 16-day window is a bit of a long shot, but it’s the best we’ve got. Look at Tuesday the 25th – the morning shows a 3 ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, and the wind is coming from the south at 12 mph, which is a cross-shore breeze. The combined energy is a solid 587, and it’s the first time we get a “cross” wind state, not onshore. It’s still marginal, but for this region, that’s the closest thing to a clean window we’ll see. The afternoon goes back to poor, but that Tuesday morning is your best bet.

Highlight: If you’re itching for a session, pencil in the morning of Tuesday, August 25th. The 3 ft SSW groundswell with that long period should wrap in okay, and the cross-shore wind will keep it cleaner than anything else. Expect crowds at 15th Street, as it’s often busy. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only real chance in the whole outlook.

Honestly, for the rest of the time, the setup is so wind-affected and small, this break might be more interesting for the kite surfers than a paddle surfer. We’ll just have to wait and see if the forecasts change.

Rusty.

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