15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s coming our way. It’s your local surf reporter Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for the next couple of weeks. To be brutally honest, the start of this run is a bit of a slow burn. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal surf to get through before we see anything that gets the heart pumping.

The first few days are a real struggle. Saturday the 22nd through to about Tuesday the 25th, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell. The waves will be there, but they’re nothing to write home about. We’re talking 2 ft to 3 ft, mostly from the SSW. The wind is mostly light and onshore, which keeps things soft. It’s not going to be a total washout, but it’s more of a longboard and cruisy vibe than anything with any punch. The combined energy is low, around 200 to 420 (weak to moderate), so you’ll be doing a lot of waiting between sets.

Things start to get a little more interesting on Wednesday the 26th. The swell bumps up to 5 ft, still from the S, but the period drops to 12-13 seconds. The wind turns cross-shore, which is better, but it’s a bit breezy, creating a cross-chop in the afternoon. The combined energy jumps to 833-952 (moderate), so there’s some grunt, but it’s not clean enough to be a standout. The water temp is running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, clocking in at 71°.

The rest of the first week stays in that same boat – small, onshore, and marginal. We get a few 3 ft to 4 ft days with some longer period energy (16-19 seconds), but the wind is never quite right. It’s a frustrating pattern of almost, but not quite.

Now, the real story is in the second week. There’s a solid gap of so-so surf, but then we get a promising run starting Thursday the 3rd of September. That’s the one that’s got my attention. The swell picks up, and the wind looks much better. Thursday afternoon the 3rd shows a 4 ft SSW swell with a very long 21-second period, and the combined energy hits 1259 (strong). The wind is light and onshore, but with that period and direction, 15th Street should start to show some proper lines. This is the best looking window of the whole forecast.

Then Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th keep the energy pumping. We’re looking at 4 ft to 5 ft SSW swell, with combined energy values of 1193 to 1295 (strong) and periods around 16-19 seconds. The wind is generally light, though it does get a bit of a cross-on component at times. This is the window for the more experienced crew. The swell is pushing over 5 ft, so it’s not for beginners, and with that long period, it’ll be a bit more powerful and defined. The optimum direction for this break is WSW, so while the SSW direction is not perfect, it’s still going to wrap in nicely.

The standout sessions are Thursday afternoon the 3rd and the morning of Friday the 4th. The swell is solid, the energy is strong, and the wind is as close to clean as we’ve seen in this forecast. Expect crowds, as this spot is often busy, especially when it’s good. The consistency is good, so you shouldn’t be waiting too long for a set.

The following Sunday the 6th looks like it’s backing off again, with the swell dropping to 3 ft-4 ft and the energy fading. The wind also gets a bit cloudier. So, mark your calendar for the start of September. That’s where the magic is.

Rusty.

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