15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, the outlook for the next 16 days starts off with a bit of a raw deal. We’ve got a solid groundswell hitting early, but the wind is just not cooperating. It’s a classic case of “so much energy, so little quality.” The best bet is going to be the very start of the period, but even then, you’ll be working with messy conditions.

The standout window is Monday the 27th of July through Wednesday the 29th of July. The swell is solid, rolling in from the SSW, with a long period of 15 to 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy of all swells is a beefy 1208 (moderate wave energy) on Monday afternoon, dropping a bit through the week. The water is a balmy 75°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal - that’s very unusual, you’ll be in boardies for sure.

The break is 15th Street (Big Island). It’s a consistent beach and reef setup, exposed to the open ocean. The swell size is 4 ft to 5 ft. That’s fun-sized, not too big, but the long period means it’ll be lumpy and a bit fat on the beach. The wind is a persistent cross-onshore from the WSW or SW, blowing at 6 to 9 mph, which is killing the surface. It’s not going to be a clean, classic day. The score is just not there for a standout. Because it’s often crowded, you’ll see some locals out, but the chop will keep the numbers down.

From Thursday the 30th of July onwards, the wind swings onshore and the quality really drops off a cliff. The swell sticks around at 4 ft to 5 ft, but with short period 12 to 13 seconds, it’s just a windswell mess. The combined energy dips to 976 (weak wave energy) and then keeps dropping. This is a hard pass for a paddle surfer.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Sunday the 2nd of August all the way through to Saturday the 9th of August, the swell drops to under 3 ft, and what little is there is coming from the wrong direction with onshore wind. The combined energy is below 200 (weak wave energy) most days. It’s a long, flat, windy stretch. Not worth paddling out, for sure.

The only glimmer of hope comes way out on the 7th of August. The early morning shows a tiny 2 ft swell from the SSW, but the wind is glassy. The combined energy is 376 (weak wave energy). It’s a wave, but it’s a micro wave. For a longboard in the morning glass, maybe. But it’s a weak offering.

The final week, from the 8th of August onwards, is just more of the same: small, weak, and blown out. The swell period gets long again (16 to 20 seconds) but the height is too small to do anything with. It’s a terrible run for paddle surfing. If you had a kite, you could have a session on the 27th with that cross-onshore wind and 4 ft swell, but for a stick, it’s a wash.

Rusty.

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