15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s cookin’ at 15th Street.

Honestly, lookin’ at the next couple of weeks, it’s a bit of a grind. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy, or just plain ugly conditions before we finally see a pulse of proper swell. The water’s a warm 72° right now, which is well above average for this time of year – feels like a bath, but don’t let that fool ya into thinkin’ the surf is gonna be good yet.

The first real chance of a wave starts on Sunday, July 12th, but it’s a tough one. The swell is a weak 3ft at 14 seconds from the SSW, with a combined energy of 399. That’s a long period groundswell, which usually means better shape, but the wind is a cross-on at 9 mph, turning it into a choppy mess. The report says “poor surf conditions,” and I’m not gonna lie to you – it’s not worth paddling out for.

Monday and Tuesday (July 13th-14th) are more of the same: small, onshore junk. The swell is barely 2ft with a short period, and the wind is straight onshore. About as inspiring as a flat tire.

We hit a real low point from Wednesday, July 15th, through Friday, July 17th. The swell drops to 1ft to 2ft, and the wind is either cross or onshore. It’s “marginal” at best, and honestly, it’s a good time to check the wax on your board rather than the waves.

Now, Saturday, July 18th, we see a change. The swell picks up to 4ft from the SSE, and the combined energy jumps to 1167, which is a solid moderate energy. The period is 14 seconds, so it’s got some push. But the wind is a cross-on at 12 mph, creating a cross-chop. It’s a “marginal” day, but it’s the first hint of life. The swell is still too small for experts, but for a beginner, it’s borderline too big, and the chop will make it hard work.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Thursday, July 23rd. We’ve got a solid 7ft swell from the S, with a period of 14 seconds and a massive combined energy of 1806. That’s proper strong wave energy. The wind is light cross-on from the WNW at only 6 mph, which should keep the surface fairly clean. This is a big swell – over 8ft, so it’s for experienced surfers only. The direction is a bit off the optimum (WSW), but with that much energy, 15th Street will still have some proper sets. It’s the best on offer in this whole 16-day run, but being two weeks out, treat it as a promising bet, not a sure thing.

The days after that, July 24th and 25th, start to fade. We’re down to 6ft on Friday and 5ft on Saturday, with the wind staying cross-on. The quality drops off, and by Sunday, July 26th, we’re back to tiny, messy leftovers.

So, to sum it up: it’s a long, slow trudge through small, blowy surf until that big SSE swell on Thursday, July 23rd. If you’re experienced and can wait, that’s your window. If you’re a beginner, there’s nothing here for you in the next two weeks.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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