15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are going to test your patience, that’s for sure. We’ve got a long stretch of small, junky surf ahead, with the first real glimmer of hope not showing up until the end of the period. You’re gonna want to keep your board handy and your expectations low for a while.

The first few days, starting Wednesday the 9th, are a write-off. We’re looking at ankle to knee-high dribble with a cross-onshore bump and light winds that won't help clean anything up. The energy is weak, with combined values sitting in the 400s, but it’s messy and lumpy. There’s just no push to it. The water temp is 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—a little treat if you do go for a paddle, but the waves aren’t doing us any favors.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th are much the same story. The swell bumps up to a tiny 3ft, but the period is a bit better in the 16-second range. It’s still cross-shore, though, which chops it all up. The energy stays moderate in the 500-600 range, but that doesn't translate to anything you’d want to drive for. It’s a lot of effort for very little reward. Don’t get too excited about the longer period here—it's just not enough size to make any difference at a beach-and-reef setup like 15th Street.

The weekend, the 12th and 13th, drops off even further. We're back down to 2ft to 4ft of weak, short-period windswell. The energy numbers drop into the 200s and 300s. This is pure frustration. The wind is light but from the wrong direction, and the surf is just closed out and bumpy. You’d be better off just watching the horizon.

The start of the following week through to around Thursday the 17th stays pretty grim. Swells stay around 2ft to 3ft, with wavering periods. The combined energy stays moderate but uninspiring, mostly in the 300s to 400s. The wind remains light and onshore, which isn’t helping break up the surface texture. There are a couple of sessions on the 16th and 17th that the models are calling “marginal,” which is a generous way of saying it’s still not good. It’s just more of the same.

Then, a change. From Friday the 18th through to Tuesday the 23rd, we start to see a bit more life. The swell doesn't get big, but the period stretches out nicely into that 17-19 second range, giving the waves some real push. The energy starts climbing steadily into the 500s and 600s. Wind stays light and mostly onshore or cross-onshore, but it’s not honking, and the surf quality just starts to feel a bit more organized. This is still a better window for a bigger board and a longer paddle, but it’s the first time in a while you won't feel like you're wrestling with it.

Now, the standout. The best surf of the whole period is looking like Sunday the 21st and Monday the 22nd. We’re looking at 4ft of southwest swell with a solid 17-second period. The energy is the highest we’ll see, in the mid-to-high 600s. The wind is light and straight onshore, which for 15th Street can actually be okay if it’s clean. This is the one to keep an eye on. It’s still not huge, but it’s going to be the cleanest and most powerful we’ve seen in a fortnight. It won't be for the beginners—that 4ft with that much push will make it a bit much for someone just starting out—but for the rest of us, it’s worth the wait.

After that, it backs off again. The 23rd and 24th see the swell fade back to 3ft-3ft, with the period dropping back to 14-15 seconds and the energy falling away. The wind goes back to a light cross-onshore. The window will have closed.

So, all in all, a long, flat stretch with a few promising days near the end. The long-range stuff for the 21st and 22nd is promising but a long way out, so don't book the time off just yet. But for now, keep your gear ready, keep your eyes peeled on that horizon, and be prepared to be patient.

Stay wet, stay keen.

Rusty.

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