15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at 15th Street for the next couple weeks. To be honest, this forecast window is a long, frustrating stretch of mostly so-so conditions, with a couple of brief windows that might get your attention, but nothing that’s gonna blow your socks off. The water temperature is 75°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than normal for this time of year, so it feels like a warm bath out there—pretty unusual for July.

The whole run kicks off with a string of days you’ll probably want to sleep in for. Wednesday the 22nd through Tuesday the 29th all have that “marginal” tag. Swell hangs around the 2 ft to 4 ft range, mostly from the SSW or S, with periods that vary but are often long enough to have some push—like that 24-second period on Friday morning, which is proper groundswell, but that’s paired with a cross-onshore breeze that chops it up. Those long-period swells at a beach-and-reef setup like this can break a bit straight and wonky, so it’s not the kind of day you’d call your mates about.

The combined swell energy is moderate during these days—between 599 and 1232—so there’s some grunt in the water, but the wind and the quality just aren’t there. You’re looking at cross-onshore and onshore winds most of the time, light to moderate, and the wave comment keeps saying “marginal” or “poor.” It’s not until Friday the 31st of July that we see the first hint of a step up. That morning the swell hits 4 ft from the SSE with a 14-second period, light offshore wind from the WSW, and the combined energy jumps to 1061. The score nudges up to a 3 out of 10, which is the best we’ve seen so far. Still marginal, but that clean, glassy wind makes it the standout of the first two weeks. Crowds are often here, so expect company if you go.

Then we get into the first weekend of August, and this is where it gets interesting for the bigger-wave hunters, but only for the experienced crew. Saturday the 1st of August sees the swell jump properly: 7 ft in the morning, 7 ft in the afternoon, from the south with a 13 to 14-second period, and light offshore wind. The combined energy is strong—1552 in the morning, 1834 in the afternoon. That’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole outlook. But at over 7 ft, this is expert territory only. If you’re a beginner, stay well clear. The wind is light and offshore, so the waves could be clean, but with that size and a beach-and-reef break, it’s gonna be heavy. Crowds are often, so it’ll be a battle. That afternoon session on Saturday the 1st is the true standout of the entire 16 days.

After that, it fades fast. Sunday the 2nd drops to 5 ft to 5 ft, still decent size but cross-onshore wind returns and the energy plummets. Monday the 3rd onward is back to small, weak, and poor—2 ft to 4 ft, periods mostly short, dirty winds, and combined energy below 350. From Monday the 3rd through to the end on Thursday the 6th of August, it’s a real dead zone. No recommendations at all. Those days you can put the board away.

So, to sum it up: the first nine days are a write-off for quality. The best on offer is Friday the 31st of July morning for a clean, smaller day, and then Saturday the 1st of August afternoon for the big, powerful, clean swell—but that’s for experts only. After that, it’s a long gap of nothing.

Rusty.

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