15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s get into it.

Look, I’m gonna level with you right off the bat. The next ten or so days, the surf at 15th Street, a beach and reef setup exposed to the swell, is not looking like it’s got any real teeth. The energy is just dribbling in, and there’s a lot of "poor" and "marginal" chatter in the air. The water temp is sitting at 71°F which is much warmer than normal for this time of year—over four degrees above average, so the water feels like bath water.

Starting Wednesday, July 8th, we’ve got a long-period groundswell from the SSW at 4ft with a period of 16 seconds, but the combined energy is moderate at best (945). The issue is the wind is a cross-on from the SW, so it’s already a bit lumpy. The quality is marginal, and the tide might be messing with things. Definitely not one to get excited about. The pattern just sort of limps along through the rest of that week and into the next—Thursday, Friday, Saturday, all of it. The swell drops to 3ft or 3ft, the combined energy keeps falling into the low hundreds to mid 400s, and winds are generally cross-on or cross. It’s just messy and small.

There’s a long stretch of nothing really surfable here from July 8th right through to around July 18th. You’re looking at about ten days of flat to marginal, unappealing conditions. Most of the time the wave comment is either "poor surf conditions" or "marginal."

Then, hold on. Around Sunday, July 19th, the charts start to bark a bit. We see a jump in swell size to 7ft from the S, still a long-period groundswell at 16 seconds. The combined energy jumps up into the strong range (2738). It’s still cross-on from the WNW, which will chop it up a little, and the call is still "marginal," but the size is now real. For anyone who likes it heavy and doesn’t mind a bit of texture, this is the standout window. By Monday morning, July 20th, it’s 7ft from the S with a period of 13 seconds and energy at 2812. That’s solid. But heads up: this is beyond beginner territory, and for some, over 8ft is expert only. At a beach and reef break, a long-period S swell can be tricky, but if the sandbars are right, there will be some pull.

Through July 19th and 20th, the swell is the biggest we see in the whole 16-day window. After that, it fades back down to 3ft from the 21st onward. The wind stays mostly cross-on or onshore the whole time, so no real glassy, offshore magic happens here.

If you’re looking for the best on offer, it’s the Sunday, July 19th, and Monday, July 20th period. It’s got the size and the grunt. The rest of the fortnight is pretty much a write-off for a decent paddle.

Stay patient, watch those charts, and that mid-July window might just give you a proper session. Rusty out.

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