15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for 15th Street. To be honest, mate, it’s a bit of a slow burn. There’s swell on the way, but for the first week and a half, you’ll be scratching for anything decent. The real action looks like it might kick off late in the second week, but that’s a long way off.

Right now, starting Friday the 14th, we’ve got a long-period groundswell from the SSW with 2ft to 3ft of swell. The combined energy is weak (583 to 726), and it’s being called marginal. The wind is onshore from the W at 9 mph, which won’t help. It’s a beginner-friendly break, but the conditions are “marginal” at best. Saturday the 15th sees a similar story: 3ft to 4ft from the SSW, but the wind is still onshore and the surf quality is poor. Sunday the 16th through to Wednesday the 19th is much the same—3ft dropping to 2ft, onshore winds, and the combined energy stays weak (370 to 537). The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing special.

From Thursday the 20th to Friday the 21st, the swell drops further to 2ft to 3ft, the wind turns cross-onshore, and the energy collapses to 173. This is a flat spell. Saturday the 22nd sees a tiny bump to 3ft, but it’s still marginal. Sunday the 23rd to Monday the 24th is flat again with 2ft to 2ft, and the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy.

Things start to look a little more interesting on Wednesday the 26th. We get a pulse of 2ft to 4ft S swell with a 14 to 15-second period, and the combined energy climbs to 767. The wind is light and onshore, so it’s still marginal, but the energy is picking up. Then on Thursday the 27th, we see a real change: the swell jumps to 6ft from the S, with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is now 1514, which is moderate. The wind is light cross-onshore, but the size is getting up there. This is not for beginners—over 5ft, it’s a challenge. For Friday the 28th, the swell peaks at 8ft from the SSW, with a period of 13-14 seconds. The energy is strong (2294). This is expert-only territory, over 8ft. The wind is light cross-onshore, but still, the size is serious. Saturday the 29th drops back to 6ft, with energy at 921, still moderate.

If you’re looking for the standout, it’s got to be Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th. The swell is solid, from the S and SSW, with moderate to strong energy. The wind is light, so the surf could be clean. This is the best on offer, but it’s for experienced surfers only. Friday the 28th, with 8ft, is the biggest day, but it’s a heavy paddle. The long period (14 seconds) means the waves will have good shape, but at a beach-and-reef break like 15th Street, it might break a bit straight. Still, the energy is there.

For the first week, it’s a write-off. The crowds are often present here, but with the poor conditions, it’ll be quiet. The second week is where the hope lies. The forecast is promising but less certain that far out. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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