15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and let’s have a look at what’s on the table for 15th Street.

Look, I’ll be straight with you – if you are sitting on the sand on Thursday morning, you’re going to see waves around 4ft, coming from the south with a decent 13-second period, and combined energy of 802. That’s moderate energy, but the report flags it as borderline marginal. The wind is onshore from the west at 6 mph, which isn’t ideal but it’s light. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

But honestly, between Thursday afternoon and the following Thursday, the second day of August, the surf stays below 3ft and the conditions only get worse. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore and picks up to 9 mph on some days. The swell period drops on Sunday afternoon (2 August) to just 8 seconds – that’s short period chop, no good. On the 1st of August, we’re looking at a sad 2ft with cross-onshore breeze. The surf gets downgraded to "poor" for days on end. Combined energy drops to two-digit figures, under 300 from the 1st of August right through.

Then from Thursday 7 August morning things perk up slightly – a 2ft swell from the south-southwest, but get this: the period jumps to 19 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell. Combined energy is back up to 454. Wind is light at 6 mph and onshore from the west, so you might get some clean-ish waves, but with such a long period at a beach-and-reef break, it could straighten out. It’s tricky.

The weekend of 9-10 August is nothing to write home about: 3ft to 3ft, sw cross-onshore breezes. On Monday 10 August morning there’s a marginal window again – 3ft from the south-southwest, onshore wind light from the west-southwest, 14-second period, combined energy of 346. Still marginal. On Monday afternoon the period spikes to 20 seconds, but the swell drops to 2ft, so that long period wave energy won’t produce much.

What stands out? Honestly, the whole 16-day window is bleak. There are no standout sessions. The best you could hope for is a window on Thursday morning (30 July) with that 4ft south swell, or maybe a paddle out on the morning of 7 August if you want to sit on a long period pulse. But there is no day where you’d call it firing. This is a run of "marginal" or "poor" conditions, with a big gap of days with no recommended surf. From Friday afternoon (31 July) all the way until the 7th of August you have a long stretch with scores of zero – that’s about a week of poor to non-existent waves.

For the beginning surfer, anything over 5ft is too big here; we only touch 4ft at most. That’s fine for learners. But the wind and period are never fully cooperating. The best I can say if you are determined is to aim for Thursday 30 July morning or early on 10 August morning, but don’t expect classics. If the wind stays onshore and the swell stays weak, this setup is more interesting if you have a kite than a paddle.

The break itself is consistent, but that doesn’t save you from a poor forecast. It’s exposed to swell from the south-southwest, and the optimum direction is west-southwest, which we do see occasionally, but the swell height is just too small and the wind never turns truly offshore. Crowds can be often here, so at least that won’t be an issue with these conditions. You might have the place to yourself for a while.

Rusty.

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