15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next two weeks at 15th Street.

Right now, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. We’ve got a quiet start, but the quality is just not there. The first surf to think about is Thursday afternoon, the 3rd of September, with a 3ft swell from the SW. Problem is, the score is a flat zero – poor surf conditions. The water is sitting at a very unusual 75.6°, which is a massive 7.4° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s way off, makes it feel more like summer.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th show a slight bump in size, about 3.3ft to 3.9ft, coming from the SSW or S. The period is very long – 17 to 14 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy climbs from 826 up to 1408 (moderate to strong). The catch? The forecast keeps calling it “marginal” with questionable tide and a score of only 1 to 3 out of 10. The wind is offshore (W to WNW) and light to gentle, so conditions would be clean, but the swell height is just too small for the beach/reef setup here to deliver anything memorable. Not the standout we’re after.

Sunday the 6th morning sees a big jump to 6.6ft from the S, energy hitting 1576. That’s a strong pulse. But the wind turns cross-onshore from the NW, making it “fairly choppy.” Score is a 2. It’s messy, and at 6.6ft it’s pushing into bigger, less forgiving territory for beginners. Not the one.

Monday the 7th is the biggest swell of the run – 6.9ft from the SSW, with energy at 1659. Again, cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions. The swell period is 14 seconds, decent groundswell, but the quality just isn’t there. Score of 2. This is more of a kite-surfing day with that onshore chop and size; paddle surfing would be a battle.

From Tuesday the 8th right through to Wednesday the 16th, we’re in a long, sad stretch. Swells drop from 6.2ft down to just 1.6ft. Scores are mostly 0 or 1. The winds stay offshore (W to WNW) and light, which means the surface would be glassy, but there’s simply not enough wave height to ride. The combined energy drops from 1296 all the way down to 226. A few days in the second week have long periods (16-22 seconds), but with tiny swell heights, it’s just not breaking properly. This is a blank run of about 8 days with no real surf to speak of. That’s a tough stretch.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th show a tiny uptick – 2.0ft to 2.6ft swells from the SW, with very long periods of 20-22 seconds. Energy picks up to 546 or 676 (weak to moderate). Scores creep up to a 1 or 2. Winds are offshore (WNW to WSW) and light to gentle. Still, that’s barely a bump. Marginal at best.

The only real standout? I hate to say it, but there isn’t one. If I had to pick the best window, it would be Saturday the 5th afternoon: 3.9ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, light offshore wind, energy 1408. That’s the highest score of the whole forecast: a 3 out of 10. Clean, small, and the long period might give a few lined-up waves for those with patience. But it’s not a day to get excited about. Crowds can be expected at this break often – you’ll have company for those few rides.

Stay patient, folks. The ocean’s not giving us much right now.

Read more