15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – this outlook for 15th Street is a tough one. We’re looking at a long 16-day window, and honestly, there’s hardly a session worth getting excited about. The surf’s pretty much flat or junk for the whole run. The first few days are a write-off, and that sets the tone.

Let’s start with the first day of the forecast, Monday the 6th of July. There’s a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW, but the energy is weak (745) and the onshore W wind at 9 mph is ruining any chance of a clean wave. The water temp is 70°, which is a solid 4° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a nice touch, but it’s wasted on the conditions. The whole first week is a mess: Tuesday the 7th sees a bit more size at 3ft, but the wind is onshore again, and the period is a long 18 seconds, which would be great if the winds weren’t trashing it. The energy is moderate (852), but the “marginal” tag says it all. By Thursday the 9th, the wind shifts to a cross-onshore SSW breeze at 9 mph, and the conditions are described as “poor” with a score of 0. The swell drops to 3ft with a period of 16 seconds, and the energy is falling (631). It’s just choppy, messy, and not worth paddling out for.

The second week doesn’t get any better. From Sunday the 12th through to Monday the 20th of July, we’ve got a solid stretch of days with no standout. The swell fluctuates between 1ft and 3ft, but the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore. The energy levels drop into the low hundreds (177 to 350), and the periods are all over the shop – some long 18-second groundswells, but the wind is always there to chop it up. The best you could hope for is a brief window on Wednesday the 15th of July, where the swell is a tiny 2ft from the SW with a 16-second period and light onshore WSW winds at 6 mph. The energy is weak (271), and it’s still “marginal” – not a session.

The one small glimmer is on Saturday the 18th of July. The swell hits 2ft from the SSE with a very long 19-second period, and the energy spikes to 833 (moderate). The wind is a cross-shore SSW breeze at 12 mph, which is at least side-shore, but it’s still strong enough to create a cross-chop. The conditions are “marginal” at best. For a spot like 15th Street, which is a beach and reef setup that’s consistent and exposed to the WSW swell, this long-period groundswell is better suited to a point or reef break, not a beach break where it’ll break too straight. The water is still warm, but the crowds are “often” a factor here, and with waves this poor, it’ll be a waste of time.

Bottom line: don’t bother. There’s no surf worth chasing in this 16-day window. The breaks are too small, the winds are too crap, and the scores are all zeros or ones. For a spot that’s usually consistent, this is a rare blank run. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup with the onshore winds and small, choppy waves than a paddle-surfing one. Keep your board waxed and wait for the forecast to change.

Rusty.

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