15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. We’re looking at the next couple of weeks, and I’ll be honest, it’s a tough one for the lineup. The forecast starts off with a bit of swell, but the conditions are messy. We’ll see a gap of poor surf stretch from around the 1st of August all the way through to the 12th, so there’s a long flat spell coming.

The only real action is in the first few days at 15th Street (a beach and reef break). It kicks off on the morning of July 28th. The swell is coming from the SSW at 5 ft, with a very long period of 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and while those long-period waves can be a bit straight at the beach, it’s still got some serious energy behind it – the combined swell energy is 1223, which is strong. The water is a steamy 75°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual. Unfortunately, the wind is a light cross-onshore from the SW, and the report says it’s “fairly choppy.” The surf quality is marginal, and the score is low. It’s not the clean, glassy day we’re after.

The afternoon of the 28th is a similar story: 4 ft of SSW swell with a 17-second period, light cross-onshore wind, and the same choppy feel. The energy is still strong at 1151, but it’s not worth paddling out for.

We get a bit of a reprieve on the morning of Thursday, July 30th. The wind switches to light onshore from the W, and the swell drops to 4 ft from the S with a 13-second period. The energy is moderate at 891. The afternoon of the 30th and the morning of Friday, July 31st see a similar pattern: 4 ft to 5 ft S swell, light onshore winds, but the quality remains marginal. The 31st afternoon has 5 ft of S swell at 13 seconds, with light onshore wind, but it just isn’t clean.

After that, from the 1st of August, the swell drops off a cliff. We’re looking at 2 ft to 3 ft for the next ten days, with poor surf conditions flagged for every session. The wind stays light, but the energy is weak (all values under 500). The 7th of August does see a long-period 19-second SSW swell, but it’s only 1 ft to 2 ft, and the cross-onshore wind will ruin it.

The very end of the window, around the 12th of August, shows a tiny uptick: 3 ft of SW swell at 17 seconds, with energy climbing to 599. The wind is onshore, but it’s still marginal. It’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it, but don’t book the day off work.

What’s the best on offer? Look, I’m not going to lie to you. There’s no standout. The best chance is the morning of July 31st, with 5 ft of S swell and light onshore wind. It’s the biggest, and the wind is light, but it’s still a gamble. If you’re desperate, you might get a few grovelly ones. Otherwise, the long flat spell after the 1st of August is a real downer. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the window.

Rusty.

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