Tices Sholls Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, pull up a chair. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Tices Sholls over these next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a quiet and frustrating stretch. For the most part, the energy is low and the wind just won’t cooperate for clean, rideable surf. The water is running at about 74°, which is *much warmer than normal* for the season—about 5° above average, so you’ll be fine in a spring suit or even trunks if you’re tough.

The first moment worth mentioning comes on Wednesday, September 16th, in the morning. There’s a tiny 0.7 ft swell from the ESE with a long 14-second period. That long-period groundswell will feel slow and straight on the sandbar. It’s glassy though, which is a big plus. The combined energy is weak (41), so it’s a small-wave session for the loggers.

Then we hit a dead zone of nothing but “poor surf conditions” for days. The wind is mostly cross or onshore.

There’s a clean window on the morning of Sunday, September 20th, with a cross-offshore WSW breeze. But the swell is only 1 ft (ESE, 11 seconds) with weak energy (77). Clean but tiny.

Here’s the big one: Monday, September 21st. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the east, with a short period of 7 seconds. The combined energy hits 492—that’s serious power. But the wind is onshore or cross-onshore at 12 mph, and the wave comments are “poor surf conditions.” At this size with that short, choppy period, it’s really a kite-surfing day, not a paddle-surfing day. Too big and messy for beginners, and heavy for anyone else.

Tuesday, September 22nd is similar: 7 ft to 7 ft from the ESE/SE, with onshore winds gusting to 22 mph. Again, a lot of energy (314-432) but blown to pieces.

From Wednesday, September 23rd, things back off. Swell drops to 2 ft-4 ft with moderate energy (77-182). The morning of Wednesday the 23rd is clean with a light cross-offshore WSW breeze and 4 ft swell from the ESE (7 seconds). Surfable but ordinary.

Thursday, September 24th morning has a light cross-offshore north wind with 2 ft swell (ESE, 7 seconds, energy 77). Clean but small.

Saturday, September 26th morning shows a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the north, but the swell is only 1 ft (ESE, 9 seconds, energy 40). It’s glassy, but barely a ripple.

The best of it? There’s no standout session. The pick of the bunch is Wednesday, September 16th morning for the glassy conditions, even if the waves are tiny. For the bigger push on the 21st, it’s a blown-out mess that’s better for the wind sports.

It’s a waiting game, folks. The long-range stuff is all low energy and poor wind. Keep your eyes peeled for changes.

Rusty.

Read more