Tices Sholls Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Tices Sholls is a tough one to write. We’re looking at a long, long stretch of flat to tiny, wind-affected junk before we finally see a glimmer of hope at the very end. The water is sitting at a very unusual 75°F right now, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year.

For the first week, from Friday the 4th through to Wednesday the 11th of September, there’s honestly nothing worth paddling out for. We're talking knee-high dribble, short period slop, and most days the wind is either onshore or cross-shore, chopping it all up. The energy levels are pathetic – most of those readings are in the teens and twenties (energy values from 17 to 54). Thursday the 10th morning sees a spike in combined energy to 405, with a 6ft swell, but that’s windswell with a period of only 7 seconds, and while it’s offshore, the report calls it "marginal." That’s not a surf day, it’s a washing machine waiting to happen.

After that, a few days of cleaner skies but still no good waves. The energy stays low, mostly under 100, and the swell direction is all over the place.

Finally, we get the one and only standout of this entire 16-day window. Saturday the 12th of September is the day to circle. Both the morning and afternoon at Tices Sholls are looking clean, with light to near-calm northwesterly and northerly winds giving you glassy conditions. The swell comes in at a fun 5ft to 5ft from the east with a period of 6 to 7 seconds. The combined energy is solid, registering in that moderate range with values around 200 and 207. The optimum swell direction for this exposed sandbar is from the southeast, so this east swell is close enough to be a decent runner. The forecast says "expect good surf conditions." This is your call. It’s clean, it’s got a bit of push, and with the offshore wind, Tices Sholls could actually turn on. Keep in mind it’s a sandbar, so it can be a bit fickle, and crowds are sometimes a thing here.

After that brief taste of quality, it’s back to the grind. From Sunday the 13th onwards through the end of the outlook on the 19th, it’s more of the same: small, messy, onshore to cross-shore slop. The energy does spike to 296 on the afternoon of the 14th, but the wind has switched to a southerly cross-onshore, ruining any chance of a good wave.

So, bottom line: you’ve got one real shot on Saturday the 12th. The rest of the 16 days is a blank run. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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