48th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days for 48th Street are a tough watch. The overall pattern is pretty grim, with very little surf that’s actually worth paddling out for. We start with a long, flat, and messy run, and it takes a while before anything remotely decent pops up, so keep your expectations low.

We kick off on Thursday, September 10th. There is some swell, but it’s tiny – just a 1ft SE groundswell at a long 9 second period, with weak energy (23). The morning has clean, offshore wind from the WSW, but the wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” The water’s much warmer than usual for the time of year, sitting at 78°, and that’s a solid 5° anomaly, so it’s notable. The afternoon stays clean with a SW cross-off breeze, but it’s still poor.

Friday, September 11th, brings a small 2ft S swell, but it’s short period at 6 seconds and onshore wind from the NE. Choppy and not worth it. Saturday continues the trend with onshore winds and weak, short-period swell from the ESE. Sunday, September 13th, gives us a slight glimmer: a 2ft SE groundswell with 10-second period (energy 63) and glassy conditions in the afternoon. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Not good, just not terrible.

From Monday, September 14th, through the following week, we get a mix of small, short-period swells and poor wind. The combined energy stays low, mostly in the 40s to 100 range, with cross-shore or onshore winds. It’s all “poor surf conditions” until we hit a new week.

Now, here’s the one and only standout in the whole outlook. On Tuesday, September 22nd, the morning shows some promise. We’ve got a 5ft ENE groundswell with a period of 10 seconds (that’s a long period), and the combined energy is a moderate 457. The wind is light and cross-off from the NNW, which means clean surf. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s your best bet – the only real highlight across the entire 16 days. It’s still a week and a half away, so treat it as a promising but not locked-in call. Wednesday the 23rd drops off quickly back into small, ordinary swell.

The rest of the forecast is a write-off: weak swell, strong onshore winds, and blown-out conditions. There’s a massive gap of surf that’s essentially flat or messy from the start, and even the one good morning on the 22nd is an isolated blip. For a beach break like 48th Street, this is just the way it goes sometimes – a lean run with nothing to get excited about. When the swell finally picks up on the 18th and into the 21st, it gets big (over 8ft), but the wind is a strong onshore gale, making it a complete mess. That setup would be more interesting for kite surfers than anyone with a paddle.

So, in short: paddle your dog on the 22nd morning, forget the rest. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it won’t stay this terrible forever.

Rusty.

Read more