48th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be real, we're looking at a 48th Street forecast that's got more "poor surf conditions" than a broken seashell. This is gonna be a tough one.

We've got a long, grim stretch ahead. The water is sitting at a very unusual 78°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – feels like bathwater, but the waves aren't matching.

The forecast is pretty barren for the first week. Sunday the 5th kicks off with tiny, weak 1ft windswell from the SE with a short 8-second period. The combined energy is a paltry 29, barely a ripple. The wind is on it, and the report says it's poor. This pattern of small, weak, and messy surf with energy readings mostly below 100 sticks around all the way through the following weekend. Monday the 6th shows a 1ft swell with 9-second period and a cross-shore wind, but still labeled poor. There's a little blip on Tuesday the 7th morning with a 2ft swell and clean conditions from a light S wind, but the period is a short 5 seconds, so it's barely breaking properly. It’s surfable, but only just.

The doldrums continue. Wednesday the 10th of July morning gives us a ray of hope: a 2ft swell from the SSE with a clean, offshore W wind at 12 mph. The combined energy is still weak at 50, but that offshore wind is a major positive. It’ll be clean, but the size is tiny. Saturday the 11th morning is glassy with ENE wind, but the 2ft swell (7-second period) just isn't enough to get excited about.

We finally see a pulse of energy around Tuesday the 14th of July. The morning shows a 4ft swell from the SSW with clean, cross-offshore winds (16 mph). The energy jumps to 215, which is moderate. This is the first real sign of life, but it's still only rated as marginal. It’s the closest we get to a standout in this period. The next Saturday the 18th of July morning has 4ft swell (7-second period) with clean cross-offshore wind, but the energy is building to 178. By Sunday the 19th, the swell gets to 5ft with energy soaring to 421, but it's coming with a strong S wind that makes it cross-shore and choppy.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, the only thing that vaguely works is Tuesday the 14th of July morning with a clean 4ft swell. The rest is a whole lot of nothing or poor conditions. When the swell finally shows up with moderate energy on the 14th, the wind finally cooperates. It's a one-hit wonder in a month of Sundays. Keep your expectations anchored to the bottom.

Stay patient, check back next week, forecasts can change.
- Rusty

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