The Inlet and Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cookin' for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it's a bit of a flat spell we're looking at here. The first proper recommendation doesn't come until later on, so we've got a long stretch of small, messy conditions to sit through first.

We're kicking off the forecast period and right away it's a struggle. The entire first week is a write-off for any decent surf. From the 15th of September onwards, it's just tiny, poor quality slop. We're talking about swell heights barely making it above 3 ft from the ENE, with periods a short 5 to 7 seconds, and the combined energy is weak, never even hitting triple digits. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, making a real mess of things. The water is a balmy 77°F at the start, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only good news.

The Inlet and Pier just isn't giving us anything to work with. The first hint of something slightly less terrible comes on the 20th of September, Sunday. The swell is still tiny, but the wind swings cross-offshore out of the SW in the morning, cleaning it up a bit. It's not proper surf, but at least the surface is clean. The afternoon even gets a "surfable" tag, but it's a 1 out of 10, so don't get your hopes up.

We get a bump in energy on Monday the 21st. Swell picks up to 5 ft from the ENE, and the combined energy finally hits a moderate 194. The problem is, the wind is howling cross-onshore at 12-15 mph, turning it into a choppy, bumpy mess. That pattern of decent swell heights – 5 ft, 5 ft – but with terrible onshore wind holds through to the 23rd. It's all cross-onshore and lumpy. The period stays a short 6 seconds, so there's no power or shape in it at all. Any break with this setup, a beach/jetty exposed to the east, is going to be more interesting for kite surfers than anyone with a paddle.

Tuesday the 24th of September sees things clean right up with a light SW wind in the morning, but the swell drops to a tiny 2 ft. Clean, but no waves.

Finally, right at the very end of the outlook window, we get the best chance. On Wednesday the 30th of September, a more substantial swell arrives. We're looking at 4 ft from the NE in the morning, rising to 5 ft in the afternoon. The periods are still a bit short at 8 seconds, so it's wind swell, but the combined energy is building strongly, reaching 349. That's a solid moderate energy reading. The wind is cross-shore from the NNE in the morning and then a gentle cross-onshore in the afternoon from the NE. It won't be perfect, but it will be the only window with real, rideable waves. The swell direction from the NE is a touch off the optimum of NE for The Inlet and Pier, but it's in the same ballpark. This is our lone standout. The crowds are likely to be a factor here, as "often" is the word.

Bottom line: Expect a lot of flat, windy days before a late-breaking pulse of energy on the 30th. For the true standout, you're waiting until then.

Rusty.

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