The Inlet and Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you—this is a tough stretch for The Inlet and Pier. Looking at the whole sixteen-day window, it's a long, slow start with almost nothing to get excited about for the first week and a half. The water is running a whole lot warmer than usual for this time of year, coming in at 78°F, which is a pretty big anomaly. The surf just isn't there.

We kick off on Friday the 11th with tiny, weak swell. The morning sees a cross-onshore breeze at 12 mph from the NNE with a measly 0.7 ft of ESE swell at 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a paltry 10. It's poor. That afternoon isn't any better, with a 2 ft NE windswell at a pathetic 4 seconds. Saturday the 12th stays poor, with 3 ft to 3 ft of short-period slop and cross-onshore winds. Sunday the 13th offers a moment of calm – the wind goes offshore in the morning (W at 12 mph) and then goes totally glassy in the afternoon with clear skies, but the swell is a tiny 1 ft at 10 seconds. It's clean as can be, but there's nothing to ride.

The slog continues through Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the following week. We see windswell in the 2 ft to 3 ft range with short periods and moderate to fresh cross-shore or onshore winds, keeping everything choppy and poor. Thursday the 19th gives us some longer period energy (12 seconds) but the swell drops to just 0.7 ft, so it's clean but flat. Sunday the 21st sees a bit more size, with 3 ft to 4 ft of E swell at 5 seconds, but the winds are light and variable, keeping the quality poor.

Now, here’s where things get interesting, but it's a mixed bag. On Tuesday the 22nd, the swell finally shows up. We get a 7 ft E swell at 8 seconds in the morning, with a combined energy of 516, but it's light cross-onshore. The afternoon pushes 7 ft from the E at 9 seconds, energy up to 641, and it’s onshore. It's marginal. Wednesday the 23rd turns ugly with 7 ft of swell but howling NNE winds at 16 mph making it choppy and poor. Then comes a real tease on Thursday the 24th. The morning is glassy with a light NNE breeze and a solid 7 ft of E swell at 7 seconds (energy 530). It is glassy and should look fun. But by the afternoon, it jumps to 8 ft with a cross-shore wind, and the energy hits 1138, making it sketchy.

The real standout, and the only one that gets my blood pumping, is Friday the 25th. This is a beast. We are looking at a 10 ft E swell, with a 10 to 11-second period, and the combined energy is massive: 1954 in the morning and 2023 in the afternoon. The wind is light off-shore or light cross-shore. This is a big, powerful groundswell. However, for The Inlet and Pier, this amount of swell is predicted to be too big for a good paddle session. For anyone with experience, those waves will be charging, but it is a warning to the less experienced. The conditions are clean, but the size is a serious commitment. After that, Saturday the 26th looks to close out poor again with fresh onshore winds.

So, to sum it up: there's nearly ten days of flat to poor conditions. The only window worth watching is the morning of Thursday the 24th for some glassy, manageable-sized waves, and Friday the 25th for the big swell crew who know what they're doing, though it's a raw, powerful day. Keep your expectations low, and keep an eye on the forecast.

Rusty.

Read more