Surf Forecasts:
Leo Carillo State Beach surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 14 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 18s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 15 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SSW swell with 552 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 8 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period with SSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Leo Carillo State Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Leo Carillo State Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Leo Carillo State Beach in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Sat 8th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Fri 14th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Leo Carillo State Beach over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the next couple of weeks are holding for us.
Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – it’s a slow start. We’re looking at a real flat spell to kick things off, with the first real chance of anything happening not until a week out. The main joint we’ve got our eyes on is Leo Carillo State Beach, a reef and point setup that’s exposed to the SSW. The water temperature is sitting at 72°, which is a solid 8° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so the water’s gonna feel like a bath.
Now, the first proper surf window with any real recommendation to paddle out is Wednesday afternoon, August 19th. We’re looking at clean conditions with a moderate breeze blowing cross-off from the WNW. The swell is a small 2ft coming from the SSW, with a solid period of 16 seconds – that’s a nice long-period groundswell. Combined wave energy is moderate at (221). On a point and reef setup like this, that long period will really wrap in and line up nicely. The score may look modest, but the conditions are right, and the swell has quality. This is your best bet on offer for the whole outlook.
Earlier in the week, things are pretty grim. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th see some bump in energy – up to 3ft and combined energy hitting (485) on Saturday afternoon – but the quality is still marginal due to the tide and the swell state. The 3ft is still friendly for beginners, but it’s not a standout.
The long-range stuff after the 19th fades again. Thursday the 20th has clean cross-off winds again, but the swell drops to 2ft and energy dips to (179), so it’s surfable but just ordinary. By the next weekend, the 22nd and 23rd, we’re back to tiny waves under 2ft with poor conditions.
So to wrap it up: there’s a big gap of almost no real surf to speak of in the first week, then a small burst of quality on the 19th with clean, lined-up waves, then a fade back to flatness. Don’t expect much else. It’s a lean run, but that Wednesday arvo is your window.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 25°C on Sat afternoon, min 20°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 24°C on Tue afternoon, min 18°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SSW 13 | SW 18 | SSW 18 | SW 17 | SSW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SSW 19 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 203 | 291 | 228 | 167 | 165 | 145 | 101 | 99 | 96 | 154 | 207 | 143 | 173 | 206 | 166 | 196 | 188 | 201 | 280 | 534 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross | glassy | on | cross | glassy | on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:11PM2.24m | 8:45AM1.47m | 7:11PM2.36m | 9:20AM1.57m | 8:05PM2.45m | 9:54AM1.66m | 8:55PM2.47m | 10:27AM1.75m | 9:42PM2.41m | 11:01AM1.83m | 10:27PM2.27m | 11:34AM1.89m | 11:13PM2.06m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:56AM0.14m | 12:46PM1.16m | 2:42AM0.00m | 1:48PM1.06m | 3:23AM-0.06m | 2:42PM0.95m | 4:02AM-0.05m | 3:33PM0.85m | 4:38AM0.03m | 4:23PM0.78m | 5:12AM0.17m | 5:13PM0.74m | ||||||||
 |  | |  | | | | | | | | | |  | | | |  | | | |
 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — |
 | 7:50 | — | — | 7:49 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — | 7:46 | — | — | 7:45 | — | — | 7:45 | — | — | 7:44 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 25 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
Feels °C | 23 | 21 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 18 | SSW 18 | SW 17 | SSW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 |
| kJ | 203 | 291 | 228 | 167 | 165 | 145 | 101 | 99 | 96 | 154 | 207 | 143 | 173 | 206 | 166 | 196 | 188 | 169 | 280 | 534 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | W 5 | WSW 4 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 19 | SSW 14 | SW 9 |
| kJ | 37 | 11 | 4 | 33 | 31 | 63 | 97 | 96 | 54 | 49 | 47 | 27 | 42 | 37 | 58 | 40 | 33 | 201 | 140 | 19 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | SSW 12 | SW 11 | SSW 9 | SSW 9 | SSW 11 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 15 | S 12 | S 12 | SW 13 | S 23 | SW 12 | S 12 | SSW 20 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSE 11 |
| kJ | 7 | 57 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 21 | 50 | 54 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 10 | 23 | 24 | 75 | 31 | 26 | 23 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 3 | — | — | SW 9 | — | — | W 12 | — | — | W 6 | — | — | W 12 | — | — | W 8 | — | — | W 7 | W 7 |
| kJ | 2 | — | — | 21 | — | — | 24 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 25 | — | — | 11 | — | — | 9 | 9 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 93 | 0 | 219 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 93 | 0 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 55 | 219 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Los Angeles County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Leo Carillo State Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Leo Carillo State Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Leo Carillo State Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Leo Carillo State Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Leo Carillo State Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Leo Carillo State Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a vacation in Los Angeles County? If you are looking for accommodation near Leo Carillo State Beach, camping, hotels and condos and appartments in Los Angeles County, consider staying in Thousand Oaks which is 16 km (10 miles) away. Other places in and around Los Angeles County where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Agoura Hills which is 17 km (11 miles) away, Agoura, Camarillo and Oxnard.
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