Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be honest – this stretch is looking pretty grim for paddle surfing. There’s no real swell to get excited about for the next couple of weeks, and what’s showing is mostly weak, short-period junk or overly long-period groundswell that won’t do much at a reef-and-point setup like Leo Carillo. We’re talking mostly small, messy, and inconsistent conditions, with a handful of moments that might be worth a paddle if you’re desperate.

The water at Leo Carillo (California) is running 6°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a big deal. It’s not just a little warm; it’s noticeably above the long-term average, so don’t bother with a thick wetsuit.

The first real window is Saturday, September 5th, in the afternoon. Swell is a weak 3 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period – that’s long-period groundswell, which at a reef/point can be okay, but energy is weak (825). Wind is light and cross from the west, so it’ll be a bit bumpy. Honestly, it’s marginal at best. Not worth a special trip.

Sunday, September 6th sees a slight bump: 5 ft from the south, 14-second period (853–880 energy), but winds are light cross-onshore – not clean. Still, it’s the biggest swell of the early week. Beginners should note this is borderline – at 5 ft it’s not huge, but it’s pushing the limit for a learner, especially with a bit of chop. The Monday morning (Sept 7th) has 5 ft from S, 13 seconds (902 energy) – the biggest of the whole run – but again, light cross winds and a bit of ripple. That’s the peak, and honestly, it’s not great. After that, it fades fast.

From Tuesday afternoon (Sept 8th) onward, everything drops below 4 ft, and by Wednesday (Sept 9th) you’re looking at 3 ft down to 1 ft for most of the rest of the window. The cleanest days are when the wind turns cross-off from the northwest, like Monday afternoon (Sept 7th) with 4 ft and 12 seconds (810 energy) – that’s the best combination of size and cleanliness. Also Tuesday afternoon (Sept 8th) with 4 ft and 11 seconds (441 energy) is clean but weaker.

After the 9th, it’s mostly tiny. There’s a brief bump to 4 ft on Sunday, September 13th, in the afternoon, but that’s a 7-second wind swell from the west – short period, poor shape, and just messy. Not worth getting wet for.

From Monday, September 14th through the end of the window (into the week of Sept 18–20), it’s all 1 ft to 2 ft – basically flat, with long-period swells (16–19 seconds) that won’t break properly at a beach-oriented spot. There are a few clean pockets with cross-off winds, but the energy is so weak it’s hardly surfable. A couple of afternoons like Sept 15th and Sept 18th show “surfable waves but very ordinary” – but that’s a stretch.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t a true gem in this whole 16-day run. If you had to pick one session, it’s Monday morning (Sept 7th) – the largest swell (5 ft), best energy (902), and though the wind is a touch cross, it’s light enough to handle. For a cleaner wave, take Monday afternoon (Sept 7th) – slightly smaller but cross-off and clean. That’s your best bet, and even then, it’s marginal.

Crowds are likely at this spot – it’s a consistent, exposed reef/point that gets attention when there’s anything rideable, and this week will be no exception. But with this little size, the lineup might be thinner than usual.

Bottom line: if you’re a kitesurfer, the cross-off afternoons might be more interesting than paddling. For surfers, this is a blank run – the energy just isn’t there. Keep an eye on the forecast; it tends not to stay this poor for long, but as it stands, you’re better off doing something else until mid-to-late September.

Rusty out.

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