Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Leo Carillo State Beach.

First up, it’s a reef and point set-up, so it’s got that classic structure. Right now, the water’s sitting at a balmy 72°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a solid 8° above average, so you’re in for a real treat on that front.

The surf kicks off on Saturday 25 July, but honestly, it’s pretty marginal. Saturday afternoon brings in a small 2ft SW swell with a very long 21-second period, so there’s proper groundswell energy in the water (combined energy at 486). That long period means the waves will have shape, but at this size it’s tiny. Light cross-shore wind keeps it clean, but it’s barely a paddle.

Sunday 26 July is similar – morning’s onshore with 3ft SW swell (597 energy), and the afternoon cleans up with a light cross breeze but still only 3ft. The real issue here is that the conditions are just not coming together for any kind of standout session.

Monday 27 July pushes the swell up to 4ft SW in the morning (751 energy) with that long 18-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore. Afternoon drops back to 3ft. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Tuesday 28 July holds at 3ft SSW swell (700–719 energy) with light winds, but the period drops to 17 seconds. Still marginal.

Now, Thursday 30 July is where things get a bit more interesting. The swell jumps to 5ft from the S (1151 energy in the morning, 864 in the afternoon) with a 14-second period. That’s moderate-to-strong wave energy. The morning’s a bit onshore, but the afternoon cleans up with light cross-onshore wind. This is probably the best bet of the whole run, but it’s still only marginal.

Friday 31 July has the biggest swell of the period – 5ft S swell (1052 morning, 934 afternoon) with 14-second period. The afternoon brings a clean cross-offshore breeze (WNW 12 mph), so the waves will be tidy. But at 5ft, it’s getting a bit chunky for beginners. Still, for the experienced crew, that afternoon might offer the best windows.

After Friday, it fades fast. Saturday 1 August drops to 4ft, and by Sunday 2 August we’re down to 2ft (140 energy) – poor surf conditions kicking in. From Monday 3 August through to Sunday 9 August, it’s a long, flat spell. Swell heights hover around 1ft to 2ft, with weak energy (mostly under 150), and the guidance calls it poor surf conditions consistently. That’s a solid week-plus of nothing worth paddling out for.

So the highlight? If you’ve got to pick a window, Thursday 30 July afternoon and Friday 31 July afternoon are your best shots. Friday afternoon especially – 5ft S swell with a clean cross-offshore wind. That’s the standout. Just don’t expect perfection; it’s still a marginal call, but it’s the best of a pretty average 16 days.

Keep your expectations in check, and if the forecasts shift, you might get a surprise. But as it stands, it’s a long stretch of small, weak surf with only a couple of short-lived pulses.

Rusty.

Read more