Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's break this down. The next couple of weeks are pretty quiet out at Leo Carillo (Los Angeles). We're looking at a lot of small, soft swell and some funky winds. It's not a total loss, but you gotta be patient. The water's running about 71°F to start, which is a solid 7°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that's some seriously warm water for this stretch.

The first few days, starting Monday the 17th, we're looking at ankle to knee-high waves, maybe 2-3ft, from the SSW. But the cross-onshore breezes are going to chop it up. The wave energy is there – moderate, but the surface will be lumpy and the shape poor. Not worth hurrying out for.

Tuesday and Wednesday aren't much better. The swell drops a touch to around 2ft, and while the afternoons go cross-off and look clean, the energy is still weak and the tide's playing games. You might snag a few on Wednesday afternoon, but it's marginal. Keep your hopes in check.

Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st look poor. We're down to about 2-2ft, with onshore winds in the mornings. The combined energy drops into the low 100s – that's weak sauce. It's flat and bumpy, better for a beach day than a surf day.

Saturday the 22nd is flat – about 2ft – with energy down to just around 120. There's a little bump late afternoon, but it's a cross-shore mess. Not worth your time.

Now, here's a glimmer. Sunday the 23rd starts to show a new pulse. It's still small at about 2ft, but the period jumps way up to 18-19 seconds, and the swell direction swings around to the SW – which is better for this spot. The energy picks up into the high 200s. The standout is Sunday afternoon: light SW wind, glassy conditions, and a clean 2ft SW groundswell with that long period. It's small, but it will be peeling and clean down at the point. This is your first real window.

Monday the 24th sees a bit more size, up to about 2ft, but the period drops back and the winds turn cross-shore. It's still a bit messy but has potential. The following days, Tuesday and Wednesday, keep that SW swell at around 2ft with 16-second periods. Mornings are cross-shore, but the afternoons clean up with a cross-off breeze. Not bad, but still on the small side.

Then, we hit another flat spell from Thursday the 27th to Sunday the 30th. Energy drops to the 120-180 range, and it's mostly 2ft or less. Not much on offer.

But wait – look at Saturday the 29th. The energy suddenly jumps to 567, a real step up from the weak stuff we've been seeing. The swell jumps to 3-3ft from the SSW with a 17-second period. It's still not big, but with that long period, it's got some push. The morning has a slight cross-onshore, but it's light. And by Sunday the 30th, the energy stays strong, with a clean 3-3ft SSW swell and light winds, especially in the afternoon. This is looking like the best of the run – still small, but clean and consistent with real energy behind it.

Looking further out, Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st of September keep the SSW swell at 3-3ft with 14-16 second periods. The energy stays in the solid moderate range. The winds are mostly light and variable. The Tuesday afternoon on the 1st looks like a nice clean cross-off window with 3-3ft and good energy.

So, to wrap it up: the next week is pretty bleak, but the last few days of August and the first of September are where you want to be. The standout is definitely Sunday the 23rd afternoon – it's small, but glassy and clean with that long-period SW swell. The other one to circle is the period from Saturday the 29th through Tuesday the 2nd, where the energy is the strongest we'll see, and the swell is consistent from the SSW. It's not big, but it's clean, and after a week of nothing, it'll feel like a party. The water will still be warm, too.

Keep it on your radar, but don't get too amped until we get closer. Forecasts can always change.

Rusty

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