Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a long look at the 16-day window for our little stretch of coast. I'm talking about Leo Carillo State Beach, a reef and point setup that’s generally a consistent spot for beginners, but it's exposed to the SSW, so it needs the right push.

Right off the bat, Saturday the 4th of July is a write-off. We've got a couple of knee-high waves, but it’s not really offering anything worthwhile. The water temp is sitting at 67°, which is a full 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's a pretty big deal, making it feel like a bath compared to normal. The real story for the first week is a slow build. The combined swell energy is climbing from a weak 339 up into the moderate zone, hitting 586 on Tuesday the 7th. But don't get too excited just yet. The problem is that the wave comment keeps calling it "marginal" or "poor" for the first several days due to the wind conditions and tide.

The first time anything starts to look half-decent is on Monday the 6th of July in the afternoon. The morning is still a bit messy, but by the afternoon we get a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the WNW. That's a major positive. The swell is a tiny 2 ft from the SSW with a long period of 20 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. That means the sets will be clean and powerful, but with a long gap between them. The combined energy is a moderate 439. It’s not a standout, but it’s the first time the wind is playing ball.

Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th of July are the best bets in the first week. The swell holds at 3 ft from the SSW. On Tuesday, the afternoon sees a clean, cross-offshore wind from the WNW again, with combined energy hitting a moderate 586. Wednesday morning has a light cross-shore wind, which isn't perfect, but the afternoon cleans up again with a gentle cross-offshore and the energy at 476. These are the pick of the first week, but I'm still not calling them standouts.

After that, the conditions get flaky again. Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th are mostly poor with onshore and cross-onshore winds. The weekend of the 12th is a mess, with a fresh breeze on Sunday afternoon ruining any chance of clean surf.

Now, looking into the second week, the surf drops off significantly. There’s a big gap of almost no decent options. The energy levels drop into the low to mid 200s, and the swell height dips down to 1 ft. Most mornings and afternoons are flagged as "poor surf conditions" or "marginal". There is a little glimmer on Monday the 13th of July, with a 3 ft SSW swell and a clean cross-offshore wind in the morning, but the energy is only 230. It’s a weak session.

The true standout of the entire 16-day forecast, the one that’s got me a bit buzzed, happens on Saturday the 18th. The morning is a bit lumpy, but wait for the afternoon. The wind is set to go light offshore from the NNW. That's a glassy, clean as a whistle setup. The swell is a tiny 2 ft from the SW, but with a period of 17 seconds. That's another long period groundswell that will wrap around the point nicely. The combined energy is a moderate 297. For a reef and point, that long period will groom the waves into clean, longer lines. It’s not big, but with that offshore wind, it will be the most fun day to get out on a log or a mid-length. Just remember, it’s a beginner-friendly spot, so the crowd could be there on a Saturday afternoon.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a slow burner with a few clean afternoons, but Saturday the 18th of July is the one to circle. That offshore wind is a rare treat for this spot.

Rusty.

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