Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Imperial Version

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for Leo Carillo State Beach over the next couple of weeks, and straight up – it’s a mixed bag with only one real standout session that’s got my attention.

The overall pattern here is pretty cruisy. Most days we’re seeing small, waist-to-chest high swell from the SSW, with a few bigger pulses mixed in later on. The water temp is sitting at a very warm 74°, a whole 9° warmer than usual for this time of year, which is very unusual and feels more like a tropical bath than a typical Southern California lineup.

The first real action worth talking about kicks off this Saturday, August 29th, in the afternoon. Leo Carillo State Beach, being a reef and point set-up, is going to light up with pure SSW groundswell. We’re talking 3 ft of clean, long-period energy at 16 seconds, with a decent combined energy reading of 523. The wind is a light WNW cross-off breeze, putting a glassy clean finish on the waves. This is your standout. The swell is hitting from the ideal direction for this spot, the conditions are clean, and the consistency is reliable. It’s a good one for all levels, but watch out – this place gets crowded often, so expect some company in the water.

Sunday the 30th is a tale of two halves. The morning is a write-off with a cross-on wind and marginal conditions, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. By then the swell has dropped slightly to 3 ft, but it’s still a long 15-second period SSW groundswell with strong wave energy (540). Another clean afternoon with a light cross-off breeze, though it’s a touch smaller than Saturday.

We then hit a gap. From Monday, August 31st, through to Monday, September 7th, it’s mostly flat or marginal small stuff. The swell drops below 3 ft, periods shorten up, and most sessions have cross-shore or onshore winds. There are a few clean windows with northwest cross-off breezes in the afternoons, but the wave heights are tiny – 2 ft to 3 ft – and the energy is weak to moderate. Don’t expect much. It’s a long, quiet stretch.

Then things get interesting again. On Tuesday, September 8th, the swell jumps. The afternoon brings a solid 6 ft of SSW swell, with a 13-second period and a combined energy of 1149 – that’s strong energy. The wind is a clean WNW cross-off at 12 mph. This is the only other standout, but there’s a caveat. 6 ft is getting solid for a beginner, and the period is moderate, so it’s going to have some push. This is definitely the pick for the second week, but it's 10 days out, so keep an eye on it – things can change.

Wednesday the 9th is still surfable with 5 ft in the afternoon, but the period drops to 9 seconds, making it a bit weaker and less defined. From Thursday the 10th onward, it fades back into small, onshore slop. Saturday and Sunday the 12th and 13th see some small SSE swell pop up, with the afternoon of the 13th showing 4 ft at 13 seconds under a clean cross-off breeze – not the best, but a salvageable session after a long flat run.

So, to keep it simple: this Saturday afternoon is your best bet right now, with Tuesday the 8th shaping up as the second-week wildcard. Get on it.

Rusty.

Read more