Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow builder, so don’t be in a rush. The first real chance to get wet isn’t until next weekend, but there’s some promise in the longer range.

We’re looking at Leo Carillo State Beach (reef and point). The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so you might get away with a thinner suit.

The start of the week is pretty flat and grim. Through Saturday the 13th and into the middle of the week, the swell is small, around 1 ft to 2 ft, and the wind mostly has a cross-onshore kick to it. It’s not worth paddling out for. There’s a real gap here with no recommendations until the 18th. That’s a solid stretch of days with nothing to get excited about.

Now, the first standout shows up on Saturday the 18th. The morning is a bit cloudy, but there’s a bump in energy. The swell hits 3 ft from the SSE with a period of 16 seconds. That long period is a groundswell, and it’ll work nicely on this point setup. The combined energy jumps to 545, which is a moderate push. The wind is light and blowing straight offshore from the south. That’s a major positive – clean, glassy lines. The best of this day is the afternoon, where the swell nudges up to 3 ft from the SSE and the energy hits 668. The wind is light cross-onshore, but it’s still a good session for a beginner-friendly spot. Just keep in mind, this break is consistent, and crowds are likely, so you won’t be alone.

Jumping ahead to the second week, the pattern shifts. Sunday the 26th looks like the best on offer. The morning brings 3 ft of swell from the SW with a very long period of 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and the point at Leo Carillo will handle it beautifully. The combined energy is a solid 606, strong enough to get your heart rate up. The wind is offshore from the south, light and clean. Afternoon holds similar size with a 18-second period and energy at 547, with a light cross-shore breeze. This is a promising session, but it’s a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed. The wave heights are under 5 ft, so it’s still fine for beginners, but that long period means the sets will be more powerful and spaced out, making paddling out a bit easier. It’s a classic point break swell.

So, to sum it up: the first real standout is Saturday the 18th with clean offshore winds, and the second is Sunday the 26th with a long-period groundswell. The rest of the window is a mix of small, choppy, or cross-offshore conditions. Don’t bother with the first week; save your energy for the end of the run.

Rusty.

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