Leo Carillo State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it. We've got a mixed bag coming up at Leo Carillo State Beach over the next couple of weeks. The water is sitting at 72°F, which is a solid 8° warmer than usual for this time of year – far from the norm, so you can definitely leave the thick wetsuit at home. The water is bath-like.

Honestly, the start of the period is a bit of a letdown. The first real glimmer of something decent doesn't show up until August 1st. Saturday afternoon sees a small 2ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a solid 13-second period, and a clean 9 mph cross-offshore wind from the west. There's a bit of energy in the water (combined energy of 246), but it’s still in that marginal zone. It's clean, but small. Expect it to be a mellow one.

The next week is a real struggle. From the 2nd right through to the 11th of August, the surf is consistently poor. The swell drops right off to about 1ft, and the winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore. It’s just not worth paddling out for. There’s a little spike in energy on the 7th morning with a very long period 19-second SSW groundswell pushing combined energy up to 329, but the onshore wind kills it entirely. That long period stuff can be tricky on a beach setup if it’s not hitting the right spot.

That dry spell of weak, choppy conditions stretches on for days, but the forecast starts to improve around the start of the second week.

The standout window is Saturday, August 15th. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The risk is lower because it’s a fair way out, but the outlook is promising. By afternoon, we're looking at a clean, chest-to-shoulder high 3ft SSW swell (combined energy of 395) with that classic 16-second groundswell spacing. But the real winner is the wind: a clean 9 mph cross-offshore breeze from the WNW. This will groom that point and reef section into proper, clean lines. The public can be here often, so get there early to snag a peak. This is the best on offer across the whole period.

Sunday the 16th holds onto some similar, albeit slightly smaller, 3ft swell with clean cross-off winds, but it won’t have quite the same punch as the Saturday.

So here’s the bottom line: don't waste your petrol this week unless you're desperate for a float. Hold out for the 15th of August. That afternoon is where it’s at.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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