Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s chew the fat about what’s shaping up at Point Mugu.

Alright, straight up – this forecast is nothing to write home about. We’ve got a long, boring run of mostly poor conditions across the full 16 days, with just a couple of moments that might be worth a dip. The first recommendation doesn’t show up until the afternoon of Sunday, 4 August, so you’re looking at a few flat, forgettable days right off the bat.

From Sunday, 4 August onwards, it’s a slog. Swell stays tiny – mostly around 1 ft to 2 ft – with a steady SSW to SW direction. Periods start out short and weak, around 12 to 13 seconds, and the combined swell energy is mostly moderate, between 74 and 129 (moderate wave energy). Winds are all over the place, but often cross-off or cross-onshore, and plenty of onshore stuff through the mornings. It looks clean but the waves are just too small and weak to get excited about. Crowds are possible at Point Mugu on the better days – it’s a fairly consistent beginner-friendly break – but the quality isn’t there. The water temperature is at 71°, which is 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so you’ll be in for a warm one if you get wet.

The first real standout window is the morning of Saturday, 15 August. That’s the one to mark. You’ve got a clean morning with a light W breeze (cross-off), a bump in swell height to 3 ft from the SSW, period at 16 seconds – a proper groundswell – and the combined energy hits 402 (strong wave energy). For this spot, that’s the best on offer. The long period will give the wave some shape and push, though it might make the sets a bit gappy. It’s still small, but it’ll be clean and rideable.

Another notable event shows up on the morning of Friday, 14 August, with 2 ft SSW swell at 18 seconds and combined energy of 435 (strong wave energy). Wind is light SSW (cross-on) though, so it’s a bit messier – marginal at best. That’s more of a backup if you’re keen.

Through the second week, keep an eye on the morning of Monday, 17 August. Swell direction swings to W at 4 ft with a very short period of just 6 seconds – that’s a windswell. Combined energy is 330 (strong wave energy). Winds are light WSW (cross) and it’s rated marginal. That’s a bit of a wild card, but the short period means it’ll be choppy and weak – not a real standout. Most afternoons from the 15th onward see the wind picking up from the WNW at 12 mph, so the early mornings are the call.

Overall, the best bet is the morning of Saturday, 15 August – clean, modest but real groundswell, and enough energy to make it worthwhile. Everything else is pretty ordinary.

Rusty.

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