Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a long stretch of small, clean surf ahead. The first real standout looks like it’s a bit of a wait, but there’s some decent fun to be had in the meantime. The water is sitting at 71°, which is a solid 8° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so you’ll be comfortable in a spring suit or even just boardshorts if you’re tough enough.

The first session worth getting excited about kicks off on the afternoon of the 23rd of July at Point Mugu. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, fairly consistent, and though it can get crowded sometimes, the vibe is usually good. The swell is a tiny 2 ft from the S with a long 12-second period, giving it some nice push for its size. The combined energy is moderate (387). The wind is a clean cross-off from the W at 15 km/h, so the face will be smooth. It’s not a big day, but it’s a fun, mellow start.

Friday the 24th of July is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning brings a 2 ft SW swell with a very long 24-second period – that’s proper groundswell, but it’s a cross-on breeze, so it’ll be a little bumpy. Combined energy is moderate (732). The afternoon cleans up with W cross-off wind at 15 km/h, and the swell holds at 2 ft from the SW with the same long period. The energy drops to 520, but it’s clean. Still, it’s tiny.

Saturday the 25th of July is similar. The morning has a 3 ft SSW swell at 21 seconds with a light W cross-off, giving you clean conditions (energy 639). The afternoon goes a little smaller at 2 ft, but still clean. The long period means the waves will have shape and a bit of grunt for the size, but it’s not a standout.

The real highlight of the first week looks like it’s shaping up for Friday the 31st of July. The afternoon sees a 5 ft swell from the S with a 14-second period, which is a solid, groundswell-driven pulse. The combined energy is moderate (957). The wind is a clean cross-off from the W at 15 km/h, so the waves will be lined up and clean. This is the best of the first batch – a proper fun-size wave for intermediates and above.

Then we move into the first weekend of August. Saturday the 1st of August morning is a bit of a wash with a 6 ft S swell (14 seconds) and a light cross-on, energy is strong at 1166. But the afternoon is where it’s at: 6 ft from the S, 13-second period, and a clean cross-off wind from the W at 10 km/h. Energy is still strong at 1036. This is a standout window if you can get out there. The swell is over 5 ft, so it’s pushing into intermediate territory, but the clean wind will make it very manageable for a confident surfer.

After that, things drop off quickly. The 2nd of August has a 4 ft SSW swell (12 seconds) with a clean afternoon, but energy is only 445. From the 3rd of August into the 7th, we’re looking at a real lull. Swell sizes drop to 1 ft to 2 ft, periods are short, and the energy is weak (under 300 for most of it). The wind is mostly clean or cross-shore, but the waves just aren’t there. It’s a blank run of about 4 to 5 days with nothing worth paddling out for. The setup is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer during that stretch. Just a heads up.

So, to keep it simple: The standout is the afternoon of Saturday the 1st of August at Point Mugu. The 6 ft S swell, 13-second period, and clean cross-off wind will give you the best waves of the whole 16-day window. The afternoon of Friday the 31st of July is a solid runner-up. Everything else is small, mellow, and fun for a beginner or a longboarder, but nothing to write home about after that first weekend of August.

Stay shifty, boys. The forecast can always change, and it doesn’t stay flat for long around here.

Rusty.

Read more