Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather 'round, surf rats. Rusty here, looking at the next few weeks for our stretch of coast, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a waiting game. The swell is small, the energy is weak, and we’re looking at a lot of days where you’d be better off waxing your board at home than paddling out. The good news? There are a couple of windows where things line up just right, and the water is something to talk about.

The first real chance to get wet comes up on Wednesday, the 12th of August, in the afternoon. Point Mugu is our only game in town, a beginner-friendly spot that’s fairly consistent with a Southerly exposure. The ocean is pumped with a weirdly warm anomaly—water temps are sitting at 71°, which is a full 7° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, feels like bathwater. The swell is a tiny 2ft from the SSW, with a long period of 16 seconds, giving it a bit of groundswell character, but the combined energy is only 267 (moderate energy). The wind is going cross-offshore from the West at 15 km/h, which cleans it right up. It’ll be small and clean—fun for a log if you’ve got one.

Now, hold tight for the real standout. Friday morning, the 14th of August, is where it’s at. The same SSW groundswell bumps up to a 2ft face but with a very long period of 19 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 401 (strong wave energy). That’s a lot of push for a small height, meaning those sets will have real shape and power. The magic is the wind—dead glassy, 5 km/h from the SW. That’s pure, silky, unbroken lines. This is a reefy point-style setup at Mugu, so that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely. For a surfer who reads the ocean, this is your session. It’ll be small, but glassy, clean, and the energy is substantial. Expect it to be *smooth*.

Saturday morning, the 15th of August, continues the theme with a 3ft SSW swell, 16-second period, and energy at 469 (strong wave energy). The wind is cross-off from the West at 15 km/h, keeping it clean. It’s a touch bigger, but still very manageable, and the consistency will be there. Not quite the glassy magic of Friday, but a solid option.

After that, the swell drops off a cliff. From Sunday, the 16th, through the end of the window on the 23rd, we’re looking at a 7-day stretch of poor, marginal, or very ordinary conditions. The swell drops to 1ft to 3ft, the periods shorten, and the combined energy dips back into the 100s and low 200s. Most days are cross-on or just messy. There’s a brief moment on Tuesday morning, the 18th, with a 3ft SSW swell, 16-second period, and energy at 318, with light cross-off wind from the West at 10 km/h—clean-ish, but not worth writing home about. The rest is a desert. Honestly, don’t bother after the 15th.

So, the pick of the fortnight is clear: Friday the 14th of August, early morning. Glassy, long-period groundswell, warm bathwater, and that point will offer the best shaped waves of the whole outlook. Saturday the 15th is a strong backup. Otherwise, get your chores done.

Rusty.

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