Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, looking at the surf for Point Mugu over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. The ocean is working, but we’re not talking about any kind of epic swell window. The energy coming in is mostly in the moderate range, with readings in the 111 to 403 zone, so there’s some push behind the waves, but it’s not going to be shaking the windows. We’ve got a consistent southwest swell direction, which is right on the money for this place.

First up, the water is sitting at 72°, and here’s the kicker – it’s 8° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a big deal. That’s a proper tropical feel in the water, so bare chest or a spring suit is all you need.

The long-range stuff for Monday the 14th sees the swell at a fun, mellow 1ft, with a long-period SW groundswell at 18 seconds. A period that long at a spot like this can get a little straight, but it won't matter much because the winds are set to be a clean cross-off on Monday afternoon. If you can sneak out for a session, it’ll be glassy and clean. These long-period waves also mean longer lulls between sets, so you’ll have plenty of time to paddle back out.

Looking at Tuesday morning, it's a write-off with onshore winds and a score of zero. But Tuesday afternoon, things start to get interesting again. We’ve got a jump in energy to 191, still 1ft, but the period is still a solid 16 seconds, and the wind goes light cross-on, staying clean.

From Wednesday the 16th through the following Monday, we get a little more size, with waves in that 2ft to 3ft range. The break starts to show its face. Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon both look like good options. The energy builds to 329 and 360, and with a light cross-off wind, the surface is going to be nice and clean. The swell direction is right in that SSW/SW window.

Friday the 18th is another one to keep an eye on. It’s a touch smaller at 2ft but the period is up to 19 seconds, and the afternoon session is going to be a clean one with a light cross-off breeze and an energy reading of 324. There’s some real potential there for a fun, glassy session.

Saturday and Sunday follow a similar pattern for the afternoons, with that clean cross-off wind and moderate energy in the 300-400 range. The size stays friendly in that 2ft zone.

Now, for the following week, things start to fade a little. The swell direction wobbles a touch, but it stays mainly out of the SW. The energy drops down, and while the afternoons still have that clean wind, the swell just isn’t as strong. By the 25th onwards, it gets pretty ordinary. The period starts dropping into the low-teens and the energy fades, and we hit a bit of a flat spell. The exceptions are Tuesday the 29th, when we get a glassy 1ft SW swell in the morning, and the feelings of autumn are settling in.

Overall, if I was locking in a couple of standouts, I’d be looking at Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th. Both days have that clean, cross-off afternoon wind, and the swell direction is perfect for the break, giving us surfable, clean little waves. The long-period groundswell energy into Friday makes it the pick of the bunch.

The forecast is a bit more reliable for this first week. The second week is promising but less certain, and the trend is definitely towards smaller, weaker surf. It’s not going to be huge, but there are definitely a few windows to get wet and get a few clean ones.

Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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