Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it for Point Mugu. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, but there are some windows of clean, fun surf if you’re patient.

The overall pattern kicks off with a solid, long-period groundswell from the SSW. The water is a balmy 71°, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, and you’ll definitely feel it. The first few days see a bit of energy, but the wind is a bit tricky, switching between cross and cross-off. The standouts come later in the week.

Monday July 27th is a bit of a write-off. A long-period 18-second swell from the SW at 4ft is pulsing with moderate energy (744), but the morning cross-wind from the WSW makes it messy. The afternoon cleans up with a light cross-off, but the swell dips to 3ft. It’s there, but nothing to get too excited about. Tuesday and Wednesday are similar – small, inconsistent, and the wind is often on it or cross-on. The best early window looks like Wednesday afternoon July 29th. The swell bumps to 3ft from the SSE, still a long 15-second period, combined energy is building to 947, and the wind swings light cross-off from the west. That’s clean, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” Still, it’s not the biggest.

Now, the true standout of the whole run is Thursday July 30th. The morning swell ticks up to 4ft from the south with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is solid at 783. The wind is light cross-on in the morning, but Thursday afternoon is the gem. The wind turns light cross-off from the west, the swell stays at 4ft, and the period is a punchy 14 seconds. This is clean, has good shape, and the energy is there. It’s the best combination of size and conditions we’ll see.

Friday July 31st is also worth a look. The swell hits 5ft from the south, which is the biggest of the forecast, with a 14-second period and combined energy of 965. The morning is a bit cross-on, but the afternoon cleans up with a cross-off wind from the WNW. This is solid, fun surf, but at 5ft, it’s getting a bit much for beginners. The strong energy (965) will make it punchy.

Saturday August 1st sees the swell backing off to 4ft and the period dropping to 13 seconds. The morning is clean with a light cross-off, and the energy is 499. It’s a decent session, but nothing like the two days before. After that, the wheels fall off. Sunday August 2nd through to Tuesday August 11th is a long, flat spell. The swell drops to tiny 1ft to 2ft with very weak combined energy (often under 100). The wind is often light, but the waves are just too small to bother with. There’s a slight spike on Friday August 7th afternoon with a 2ft, 19-second SSW swell, but it’s tiny and the energy is only 407. It’s surfable, but not a standout.

Bottom line: If you’re after the best, you’re looking at Thursday afternoon July 30th or Friday afternoon July 31st. The water is warm, the swell is there, and the wind will cooperate. The rest of the run is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more