Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking at the local surf outlook for Point Mugu over the next couple of weeks. To be honest, it’s a pretty flat and quiet run overall. The swell energy is mostly weak, sitting under 300 (279) for most of the period, and there’s nothing really pushing above that into moderate territory until well into the second week. The water is sitting at 71°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so you’ll be in for a warm one if you paddle out.

We kick off on Tuesday, 18 August, with a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW at a long 16 seconds. That’s a groundswell, but it’s just too small to get excited about, and the morning cross-shore wind from the WSW at 6 mph doesn’t help. The combined energy is only 279, so weak. The afternoon goes clean but the swell drops to 2ft – not worth suiting up for.

The rest of the first week stays small. Wednesday and Thursday offer 3ft and 2ft respectively, but the conditions are either crossed up or onshore, and the scores are low. Friday through Sunday, 21–23 August, the swell drops even further to 1ft–2ft, with short periods around 13 seconds. The wind is mostly cross-off in the afternoons, which keeps it clean, but there’s just no push. Sunday morning sees a brief pulse of 1ft SW swell at 19 seconds, but that’s a very long period for a tiny wave – it’ll be too straight and hard to catch at a beach break like Point Mugu.

Now, we finally get a bit of life on Monday, 24 August. The morning has a 2ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and more importantly, the wind is light and cross-off from the W at 6 mph. The combined energy nudges up to 276, and the comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s the best of the first week, but it’s still small. The afternoon stays clean.

Tuesday, 25 August, is where the energy finally shows. The morning sees a 2ft SW swell with a 16-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 380 – moderate energy. Wind is light cross-off from the W at 6 mph, keeping it glassy. The comment is “expect good surf conditions.” This is the standout session for the whole outlook. The afternoon is clean but smaller.

After that, it fades again. Wednesday through Friday, 26–28 August, the swell drops back to 1ft–2ft, with weak energy around 119–247. Conditions are mostly clean in the afternoons, but the waves are ordinary.

The tail end of the period, 29 August to 2 September, shows a slight bump. Saturday, 29 August, has 3ft–3ft from the SSW at 16 seconds, with energy hitting 362 in the morning and 495 in the afternoon. That’s the strongest energy of the whole run, but the comment says “marginal” – likely due to the long period and small size not lining up well. Sunday, 30 August, is similar at 3ft with energy around 329–369. The wind is light cross-off in the afternoons, so it’s clean, but the waves are still marginal. Monday, 31 August, keeps it at 3ft, and then it drops again into September.

Point Mugu is a beginner-friendly spot, and it’s fairly consistent, but this stretch is mostly a flat spell. The crowds are sometimes an issue here, but with waves this small, you’ll pretty much have it to yourself. If you’re desperate, the best bet is Tuesday, 25 August morning – that’s the only session that really stands out with moderate energy, clean conditions, and a bit of a longer period groundswell. The rest is just hoping for a bump.

Rusty.

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