Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Point Mugu over the next couple of weeks.

First thing you gotta know, the water is feeling seriously weird. It’s sitting at 71°F and that’s 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a big deal—very unusual for the area.

The surf window is pretty quiet to start. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out period of small, weak energy. The first real whisper of anything surfable shows up on Thursday the 10th in the afternoon, with a 3ft SW groundswell (16-second period) and manageable cross-off winds. The energy is moderate (390). It’s not going to blow your mind, but it’s clean. Friday the 11th morning is similar, with 3ft SW swell and a light onshore breeze, but the afternoon cleans up again with some clouds and a light cross-off. It’s the kind of small stuff that’s good for a beginner—anything over 5ft is too big for beginners, and we’re well under that.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are a write-off. Swell drops to 2ft and 2ft, with weak energy readings (172 and 115), and the winds are messy—cross-shore or cross-onshore. The waves are there but the quality is poor.

Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are a bit of a tease. The swell goes even smaller, 1ft, but the period jumps to 18 seconds on Monday. That’s a long period groundswell, which usually means better shape, but it’s just too small to do much with, especially at a beach setup. The energy is weak (163 and 116). Not worth paddling out for.

Wednesday the 16th morning sees a slight bump to 2ft SSW swell with a 18-second period, and the energy climbs to 317. The wind is a light cross-on, but the wave quality is still marginal. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a 15 km/h cross-off.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Thursday the 17th morning is the first real standout. We’ve got 2ft SSW swell, 16-second period, clean cross-off wind at 10 km/h, and moderate energy of 307. The conditions are set for a good session. It’s small but clean, and the long period will give you some push. Crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so expect a few other heads out. This is the best option in the first week.

Friday the 18th morning is also solid. 2ft SW swell with a 19-second period, light cross-off, and energy of 361. The swell direction is right on the money for Point Mugu’s optimum. It’s a bit more energy but the same small, clean setup.

The absolute top pick of the whole forecast is Saturday the 19th morning. That’s the one. Glassy conditions—no wind at all, just a slight air. 2ft SW swell, 18-second period, and energy of 337. It’s going to be as clean as it gets. The swell direction is a perfect match for the break. If you can get out for that morning, you’ll be rewarded with some silky, long-period lines. Afternoon still looks good with a gentle cross-off and energy at 424, but the morning is the magic window.

After that, the pattern holds for the rest of the second week. Sunday the 20th through Tuesday the 22nd offer similar small, clean conditions with cross-off winds and 2ft to 3ft SW swell. The energy stays moderate (300-400 range). Nothing huge, but consistent and rideable for a beginner or longboarder. Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th fade out again, with energy dropping below 200 and the winds getting more cross-shore. It’s just a slow tail-off.

So, your best bet: Saturday the 19th morning for glassy perfection. Thursday the 17th morning is a solid backup. The rest is small and clean but nothing to write home about.

Rusty.

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