Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for our stretch of coast.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the good news is there’s surf on offer right from the get-go. The first few days are small but clean, with a nice little pulse of energy building through the end of the month and into the start of August. The real standout window shapes up for the afternoon of Tuesday the 28th and then again on Saturday the 1st of August. That’s where we’ll see the best combo of size and clean conditions.

Point Mugu is where it’s at. This spot is fairly consistent and pretty exposed to the swell, so it’s catching most of what’s coming.

We kick off Thursday the 23rd of July with a clean, small south swell. Expect waves around 3 ft, period around 13 seconds, and a gentle cross-off breeze from the west. It’s weak energy (527), but it’s smooth and clean. Good for a longboard or a fun log. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Friday the 24th sees the swell drop a little in height but the period jumps to a very long 24 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (734) in the morning, but the wind is a light cross-on, so the morning is a bit marginal. The afternoon cleans right up with a cross-off breeze and clean surf, though the swell is only 2 ft. A long-period swell like this will wrap nicely into the point here, but it’s a small one.

Saturday the 25th picks up a little more size, 3 ft in the morning with a 21-second period, but the wind is cross-shore, making it a bit bumpy. The afternoon is cleaner with that cross-off breeze again.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th are a bit of a write-off. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and despite some southwest swell hanging around, the conditions are poor to marginal. The energy is still moderate (500-600 range), but it’s not worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s the one to circle. On Tuesday the 28th of July, the afternoon session is looking sweet. The swell is 3 ft from the SSW, period of 17 seconds, and the wind swings to a gentle cross-off breeze from the west. The combined energy is moderate (741), and the forecast says "very good surf conditions." This is the first real standout. Clean, peeling lines with that long-period push.

The rest of the week through to the 31st is a mixed bag. Small swell, mostly in the 3 ft to 4 ft range, with periods dropping from 16 seconds down to 14 seconds. The wind is often light and cross-onshore in the mornings, but the afternoons do clean up. It’s ok, but not the highlight.

The big one for the more experienced crew lands on Saturday the 1st of August. The morning sees 5 ft swell from the south, period at 14 seconds, but it’s a bit lumpy with cross-onshore wind. The afternoon, though, is where it’s at. The swell holds at 5 ft, the period drops a touch to 13 seconds, and the wind swings to a clean cross-off breeze from the west. The combined energy is strong (844), and the forecast again says "very good surf conditions." That’s a solid step up in size. This is getting into expert territory, especially for the bigger sets. The point break here will handle that size well, and the long-period lines will offer some proper walls.

After that, the swell starts to fade. Sunday the 2nd of August is still fun in the afternoon with 4 ft and clean cross-off winds, but by Monday the 3rd, the energy drops off a cliff. The rest of the outlook from the 3rd through to the 7th of August is mostly poor to flat, with weak energy (under 200) and tiny waves. A few afternoons are clean, but there’s just no power behind it.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are the afternoon of Tuesday the 28th of July for a clean, fun-sized swell, and the afternoon of Saturday the 1st of August for a bigger, more powerful session. The mornings are generally a bit messy, so aim for the afternoon glass-off.

Stay safe out there, and don’t sleep on that Tuesday session.

Rusty.

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