Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks at Point Mugu. It’s looking like a slow start, but there’s some real promise later on if you’re patient.

The water’s sitting at a very unusual 70°—that’s a huge anomaly of 6° warmer than average for this time of year, so the water’s feeling like a bath. The swell is mostly small, but there’s a building trend in the second week that could be worth circling on the calendar.

Right now, through the 22nd and into the 23rd, it’s tiny. We’re talking about 1ft swell from the SSW with a super long period of 15-19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, but there’s just no size to get excited about. The combined energy is weak (179). Sunday morning the 23rd has clean conditions with cross-offshore wind, but the swell is just too small. This is a stretch for a beginner spot anyway, and the crowds can be an issue sometimes.

The 24th and 25th are still marginal. The swell inches up to 2ft-2ft, and the period drops to 16-18 seconds. The energy ticks up a bit (270-321), but it’s still not enough to get the heart racing. Tuesday morning the 25th offers clean surf with light cross-off wind, but it’s barely a knee-high ripple.

Now, things start to get interesting on the 26th. Wednesday sees a pulse of 4ft-4ft swell from the south, with a period of 12-13 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 546-579, which is moderate and gives the waves some push. Wednesday afternoon looks glassy—offshore conditions are calm, and the surf should be clean and fun. That’s a standout window for the smaller boards.

The 27th holds 3ft-3ft from the south, with period dropping to 10-11 seconds. Thursday afternoon has clean cross-off wind and okay shape. The 28th and 29th see a step up, with SSW swell around 2ft-3ft and a longer period of 16-19 seconds. The energy builds to 482-660. Saturday afternoon the 29th is looking clean and promising, with a 3ft SSW swell and a 16-second period. That’s good for a point break setup—these longer-period waves will wrap in nicely and offer grunty lines.

The 30th and 31st drop back slightly, with 2ft-3ft swell and shorter 13-15 second periods, so the quality fades. Not much to chase there.

Then, as we roll into September, the forecast shows a real uptick. The 1st and 2nd bring 2ft-4ft swell from the south, with period around 12-18 seconds. The energy is moderate (274-560). Wednesday the 2nd looks particularly clean with a 4ft swell and 12-second period, and light cross-off winds. That’s a good session for a ripper.

The 3rd and 4th see a strong SSW groundswell building, with period of 17-20 seconds and combined energy jumping to 600-777. That 4ft swell on the 4th, with 17 seconds and clean cross-off wind, is a legit standout. The waves will have proper punch and shape. The 5th of September Saturday morning is looking clean with 3ft and 16-second swell, and the afternoon shows 4ft and 16 seconds with gentle offshore wind and very good surf conditions. The energy is 678. That’s the best of the outlook—a solid, clean, consistent swell.

Finally, the 6th of September Sunday afternoon has 3ft from the SSE with a 14-second period, clean cross-off wind, and very good conditions. The energy is high at 693. Another quality session to end the forecast period.

The standout picks are the 26th Wednesday afternoon for the glassy south swell, and the 4th-5th of September for the bigger, cleaner SSW groundswell. If you’re a beginner, the swell stays under 5ft for most of the period, so it’s manageable, but the 4th-5th might be pushing it for less experienced paddlers. The longer-period swells are best at the point, not the beach.

So, overall, there’s a slow start, but once we hit the 26th and then the first week of September, the surf wakes up. Keep an eye on the long-range stuff—it’s promising, but not locked in yet.

Rusty.

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