Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Point Mugu over the next couple of weeks.

The water is currently sitting at 69°F—that’s about 5°F warmer than average for this time of year, so it’s unusually warm. You’ll definitely notice it.

Alright, the outlook starts off pretty flat and weak. The first few days, from Saturday the 18th through to the start of the week, are offering only small, marginal surf. Saturday morning has a modest 2ft swell from the SW, but with a light cross-onshore breeze it’s not doing much. The combined energy is low (319). By Saturday afternoon, the wind swings cross-off and the waves clean up, but it’s still tiny. Sunday morning is a write-off with poor conditions, though Sunday afternoon sees a slight bump to 3ft SW swell and a cross-off wind, making it cleaner. The energy picks up a bit (617), but it’s still small.

Monday morning brings a 4ft SSW swell, but with a short period of 11 seconds and a cross-on breeze, it’s messy. Monday afternoon drops back to 2ft but with a clean cross-off wind. Not much to get excited about.

The real window starts to open on Tuesday the 21st. Tuesday afternoon looks promising: a clean 3ft SSW swell, light cross-off breeze, and the conditions are described as “good.” The energy is moderate (453). Wednesday afternoon the 22nd is also clean, with a similar 3ft SSW swell and light offshore wind. Good surf.

Thursday morning the 23rd is the best of the early run. We’ve got a light cross-off wind, 2ft SSW swell, clean conditions, and “good” surf expectations. Ideal for a beginner-friendly session.

Then we hit a bit of a lull until the standout event. Friday the 24th morning sees a pulse of long-period energy: 2ft SW swell with a period of 24 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 809. Now, with that long period, the waves will have more shape and power, but at a beach break like Point Mugu, it might run a bit straight. Still, the light cross-shore wind keeps it tidy. Not a huge wave, but quality.

The real standout is Sunday the 26th. Sunday morning is the pick of the entire forecast. We’ve got 3ft SSW swell, a period of 19 seconds, light cross-off wind, and the conditions are flagged as “very good.” The energy is solid (762). This is the one to circle. Clean, lined-up, and the water is warm. Crowds are possible at this spot, so get in early.

Tuesday the 28th afternoon is another strong contender. Clean 4ft SSW swell, 18-second period, light offshore wind, and again “very good” conditions. Energy is 806. This is a proper session.

After that, the quality drops. The end of July and into early August sees more marginal conditions, with onshore winds and mixed swell. The 31st of July afternoon has a 4ft SSE swell, but it’s cross-shore with some chop. Not worth a special trip. The 1st of August morning has 5ft S swell, but it’s cross-shore and messy. By the 2nd of August, it fades to tiny, poor surf.

So, the two true standouts you need to mark on your calendar are Sunday the 26th of July morning and Tuesday the 28th of July afternoon. Both offer clean, quality waves with good energy and that warm, warm water.

Rusty.

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