Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be honest with you, looking at this 16-day window, it’s a bit of a slow burner. We’ve got a run of small but clean waves coming up, but nothing that’s going to blow your wetsuit off. The real standout action, if the charts hold, is way out there in the second week.

The water is sitting at 69°F right now, which is a solid 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a seriously warm bath, mates. Pretty unusual.

First up, we’ve got Point Mugu kicking things off on Sunday the 19th. It’s small, with a 2ft to 2ft SW swell pushing through. The period is a very long 17 seconds, which is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is moderate (415 on Sunday morning, building to 568 by the afternoon). It’s a beginner-friendly break and fairly consistent, but the wind is a bit tricky Sunday morning – a cross-offshore from the west should clean it up for the afternoon session. It’s not a standout, but it’s a start.

The real quality starts to show up around Tuesday the 21st. The afternoon sees a clean 3ft SSW swell with a 15-second period, light cross-off winds, and the energy is solid (431). This is where we start to see some worthwhile waves. This pattern of clean, small surf continues into Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd, with the Thursday morning looking particularly tidy with a 14-second, 2ft SSW swell and cross-offshore winds.

Now, for the first true standout. Saturday the 25th. The morning session is looking the goods. A 2ft SW swell, but with a very long 21-second period, pumping in a hefty 707 combined energy. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the west. That’s clean, lined-up waves for a point break like this. It’s the best call of the first week. The crowd factor is “sometimes” here, so you might have some company, but the quality should be worth it for the surfer who knows what they’re doing. This is a swell that’s going to wrap in nicely.

We then get a bit of a lull for a few days, but the wind stays mostly favorable until late in the month. The next big spike comes on Monday the 27th afternoon. A 3ft SSW swell, 19-second period, and a massive 871 combined energy. This is a very strong push of water. With clean, cross-offshore winds, this is another top-tier session.

The standout of the whole forecast, though, is shaping up for Tuesday the 28th. The afternoon session is the pick. A 3ft SSW swell, 17-second period, and the biggest combined energy reading of the first week at 892. That’s strong wave energy for a point break. Winds are a clean cross-offshore from the WNW. For a point break like Point Mugu, those long-period SW swells handle beautifully. This is the one you point your board towards.

Into the second week, things get a little more interesting but with a big caveat. On Thursday the 31st, the swell jumps up. A 4ft SSE swell hits in the morning, with a 16-second period, and the energy is very strong at 1042. By the afternoon, it’s a 6ft SSE swell with a massive 1892 energy. This is a big, powerful groundswell. However, the wind is a light cross-onshore, which will make it messy. For a point break, that long-period SSE swell is going to be breaking straight and fast. This is expert territory at this size, and the conditions are marginal. Not the best call.

Saturday the 1st of August is where the second week’s best bet lies. The morning is a solid 6ft S swell, but it’s cross-onshore. The afternoon, however, is magic. A 5ft S swell, 12-second period, combined energy of 995, and a clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW. This is a big, powerful, clean wave. This is for experienced surfers only, as it’s well over the 5ft mark. If you’re a beginner, stay well clear. But for the crew that can handle it, this is the pinnacle of the outlook.

After that, it drops off fast. Sunday the 2nd is small and clean, but by Monday the 3rd, it’s back to flat, onshore junk. The energy drops to a weak 99. So, a blank end to the run.

To wrap it up: for the first week, Saturday the 25th morning is the standout. For the second week, the Saturday the 1st of August afternoon is the big-wave call, but it’s for experts only. The Tuesday the 28th afternoon is a solid, reliable pick in between.

Rusty.

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