Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you—this stretch at Point Mugu is looking like a bit of a waiting game. The next week and a half is pretty flat and nothing to write home about, but there's a glimmer of hope way out there if you're patient.

The water's sitting at 70° with a massive anomaly of 3°, so it's much warmer than usual for this time of year.

Right now, through the end of August and into the first week of September, the swell is tiny. We're talking chest-high at best, mostly waist-high or smaller. The waves are coming from the SSW with a long period—around 15 to 18 seconds—which is groundswell, but the energy is weak. You'll see combined energy values around 119 to 291, which is low. The winds are mostly light or moderate, often cross-off, but the waves are just too small. From Wednesday the 19th through to the 23rd, it's all "surfable but very ordinary" or "poor conditions." It's a tough run.

Then there's a gap of a few days with no real standouts until the 24th and 25th, when the morning sessions show a bit of life. On Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, the mornings have "expect good surf conditions" with 2ft of SSW to SW swell, but the period drops to 14-16 seconds, and the energy's still moderate (275 to 283). The winds are light cross-off, which is clean, but the size is still small. Afternoons turn poor again. It's not a standout, just a glimmer.

Now, the real promise comes late in the window. On Saturday the 29th of August, the morning bumps up to 3ft of SSW swell with a 17-second period and combined energy jumping to 631—that's strong energy. The wind is light from the WSW, but it's a cross wind, which means a bit of texture. Still, that's a solid groundswell. The afternoon holds 3ft and 529 energy. Then Sunday the 30th is similar, with 3ft in the morning, and the afternoon shows "expect good surf conditions" with 3ft, 414 energy, and light cross-off wind. Monday the 31st has 3ft in the afternoon with "expect good surf conditions" and 347 energy. These are your best bets.

Point Mugu (California) is a beginner-friendly spot that's fairly consistent and fairly exposed to the SW swell. The optimum swell direction is from the SW, and that's exactly what we're getting. It can get crowded sometimes, but with the small size earlier, it might be quieter. The long period (over 15 seconds) is best for a point break like this—it'll wrap in nicely. But keep in mind, the wind is rarely fully offshore, only cross-off or cross, so it's clean but not glassy.

For a standout, I'd point to the Saturday the 29th of August morning session. That 3ft SSW swell with 17-second period and strong energy (631) is the best on offer. The light cross wind is a slight buzz, but it's the biggest and most powerful window. If you're an intermediate or above, that's your go. The Sunday the 30th afternoon is also worth a look for the cleaner conditions.

The first week is a write-off, but the second week shows promise. Long-range forecasts like the 29th and 30th are less certain, but they're the only real standouts. If you're a beginner, the 2ft to 2ft days around the 24th and 25th are safe enough, but the bigger swell late in the month might be too much for learning.

So, hang tight. The flat spell is a grind, but that late August window could be worth the wait.

Rusty

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