Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s look at the same stretch of water, but in feet and knots.

The overall picture: we’ve got a long run of small, clean surf from the south-west, nothing too heavy, but nothing that’ll get your heart racing either. The wave energy is light to moderate, and the water’s sitting at 70°F — that’s about 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so the water’s really warm.

The only break in the forecast is Point Mugu. It’s a fairly consistent spot, exposed to the south-west, with mostly cross-off winds that keep the surface smooth. The wind is light, making it easy to paddle.

Let’s run through it. The first half is a slow starter. Monday the 7th has a little bump of 5ft from the SSW with a 12-second period, giving moderate energy (738). The wind is cross-off, but it’s marginal, so it’s a longboard wave for the patient. The swell drops fast after that, with Tuesday the 8th offering 3ft from the SSW (457) and then down to 3ft by afternoon. The wind stays light and cross-off, so the surface is clean, but small. Wednesday the 9th is even smaller, 2ft to 2ft, but with a 16- to 17-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell — better shaped waves, but longer lulls between sets. At a beach break like this, it might be a bit straight, but it’ll be clean.

The standout? The best on offer is the Monday morning of the 7th for the most size (5ft, SSW), but it’s not a classic. For a real highlight, I’d call out the Friday the 18th through Sunday the 19th in the second week. That’s where we see “expect good surf conditions” with 2ft to 2ft from the SW, but with a very long period of 18 to 19 seconds. The energy is moderate (322 to 377), and the wind is light and cross-off from the WNW at 9 to 12 knots. That’s a glassy, clean setup. Small, but fun, and crowds are only “sometimes” here.

There’s a gap in the recommendations: from the 12th to the 16th, things are tiny and poor. The 12th is a zero, the 13th is a zero, the 14th and 15th are 0 or 1. That’s four or five days of barely surfable slop. Then the 16th and 17th are marginal. So a decent lull in the middle.

The 20th and 21st bring a bit more energy (434 to 495) but the wind switches onshore on the 20th morning (S, 6 knots), and there’s a cross-on or unknown state. The afternoon of the 21st looks better with cross-off wind and 3ft from the SW, 17 seconds, moderate energy (493). That’s a solid little session.

The 22nd wraps it up with 2ft to 3ft from the SW, 16 seconds, and light cross-off wind. Nothing huge, but it’s clean.

Summing up: the first few days (7th to 9th) have the most size, but the second week (18th to 19th) has the best conditions for a clean, small wave. Beginners can handle the 5ft on the 7th, but it’s at their limit. Experts will appreciate the longer period days for the shape, even if the size is small.

Rusty.

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