Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. The next 16 days are mostly small and average, with only one real highlight where everything lines up. Swell stays tiny most of the time, just knee-to-waist high, and the wind will be the real decider. When the wind is light or blows offshore, it’ll be clean.

The only spot in this forecast worth talking about is Point Mugu. It’s a beginner-friendly break that’s fairly consistent, exposed to the SW, and the optimum direction is SW, so that matches the swell. Water temp is 72°, which is about 8° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a big anomaly, so you’ll be comfortable in just boardshorts or a thin top. The combined swell energy today is moderate, around 132.

First few days – Monday 14th through Wednesday 16th – are a write-off. Swell is 0.4m to 0.7m, winds are messy, cross-on or onshore. Energy readings are in the 111 to 329 range, but with those short periods, you’re looking at small, lumpy, barely surfable waves. Not worth the drive.

Thursday 17th shows some promise in the afternoon. The swell is still small at 0.6m from the SSW, but the wind goes clean, light cross-off from the west. The period bumps to 15 seconds – that’s long-period groundswell, which will give the waves shape and punch even though they’re small. Energy hits 344 (moderate). This is the first real clean window.

Friday 18th and Saturday 19th repeat the pattern: mornings are side-shore and messy, but each afternoon cleans up nicely with light offshore westerlies. Swell holds at 0.5m to 0.6m with a long 18 to 19-second period. Combined energy stays in the moderate 300s. These afternoons will offer tiny, clean, peeling waves. Good for a log or a funboard. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have company.

The standout by far is Sunday 20th and Monday 21st September afternoons. Swell climbs to 0.8m from the SW, with a solid 18-second period on Sunday and 17 seconds on Monday. Combined energy is 431 on Sunday and 390 on Monday – the highest of the entire forecast. Winds are clean: light cross-off WNW on Sunday, light westerlies on Monday. These two afternoons will deliver the biggest, cleanest, most lined-up waves of the whole run. For beginners, 0.8m is perfect; for experienced surfers, it’s fun and rippable. This is your best bet.

From Tuesday 22nd onward, the swell fades and the period drops. Tues and Wed afternoons remain clean, but the swell is back to 0.6m to 0.8m and energy is declining. By Thursday 24th and into the following week, it turns poor: small, short-period slop, with combined energy often below 200. Not worth paddling out.

For a beginner-friendly break like Point Mugu, most days are small enough to be safe, but only the clean afternoon windows are worth it. Stick to Sunday 20th and Monday 21st afternoon – small, clean, and just enough push to have fun.

So here’s the call: the best of the 16 days is Sunday 20th September afternoon and Monday 21st September afternoon at Point Mugu, with clean offshore winds, 0.8m SW swell, and long 18 to 17-second groundswell. That’s your session.

Rusty.

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