Point Mugu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down Point Mugu. It’s a quiet start, no doubt about it. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, marginal surf with a few brighter windows later on.

The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not a game-changer, but nice to know.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 18th, we’re stuck with tiny 1ft to 2ft swell from the SW. Wednesday morning has a cross-on wind, making it pretty ordinary. The energy is weak (149). Thursday the 16th sees a glassy morning and afternoon, but even with clean conditions and a 1ft SW swell, it’s barely a ripple. Friday the 17th gets worse with onshore winds and poor surf. Saturday the 18th bumps up to 2ft, but the wind is on it, and the energy is still moderate (352). Not worth the paddle.

Sunday the 19th is a step up in size but not in quality. We get a 4ft south swell, but it’s wind-affected with cross-on breezes and a poor surf rating. The energy is getting stronger (644), but it’s messy. Monday the 20th through Wednesday the 22nd stays in that 2ft to 3ft range, with the wind shifting around. The afternoons on the 20th and 22nd show clean conditions with cross-off winds, but the swell is still small and the energy is moderate (489 and 521). You could get a few rideable ones, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Now, the standout window is shaping up for the end of next week. Friday the 24th into Saturday the 25th of July. On Friday the 24th afternoon, we’ve got a 5ft south swell with a 14-second period, clean cross-off winds from the WNW, and strong energy (1191). This is the most promising pulse of the whole forecast. Saturday the 25th afternoon keeps the quality going with a 5ft SSW swell, gentle cross-off winds, and very good surf conditions. The energy is still strong (945). Point Mugu is a beginner-friendly spot, but with swell over 5ft, it’s getting a bit punchy for absolute beginners. The direction is from the south, which is a good match for the break. It’s fairly consistent, and crowds are possible. This is the pick of the period.

The rest of the run into the end of July and early August is a mix of small, clean afternoons and onshore mornings. Swell drops back to 2ft to 3ft with moderate energy. The afternoons on the 27th and 28th look clean with cross-off winds, but the size is small. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th are back to onshore winds and poor conditions.

So, the honest truth? Most of the 16 days are small and average. The real highlight is the afternoon of Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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