Trancas Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ in the water. It’s a pretty bleak stretch ahead, I won’t lie to you. We’re looking at Trancas Point, and this point rarely breaks, which is the first flag. The whole 16-day window is mostly a write-off with only the smallest flickers of hope. There’s going to be a long gap from the start all the way through until the second week with next to nothing worth paddling out for.

The only spot that even gets a mention is Trancas Point, a point break that is exposed to the west. Right off the bat, the water temp is sitting at 73°, which is a whopping 9° warmer than it should be for this time of year. That’s very unusual.

Let’s start with Wednesday the 29th of July. Morning has a 3ft SSW swell with a super long period of 16 seconds, but the wind is a cross-on from the SSE at 19 mph with a combined energy of 408 (moderate). That’s just poor surf conditions. The afternoon is barely better, with the same 3ft swell but a lighter cross-shore breeze. Still, it’s marginal at best.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are more of the same. Thursday afternoon sees a slight bump to 4ft from the S (14 seconds, 632 energy), but it’s cross-shore wind and still rated marginal. Friday afternoon on the 31st finally shows some promise with a clean look – the wind goes cross-off from the WNW at 12 mph, the swell is 3ft from the S at 13 seconds, and the energy drops to 392. This is the one and only standout in the whole forecast: Friday afternoon. It’s not big, but it’s clean.

Then it all falls apart. From Saturday the 1st of August all the way through the morning of Friday the 7th of August, we are looking at tiny, weak swell (1ft to 2ft) with poor conditions. The combined energy drops down to double and low triple digits (weak to moderate). There is a gap of almost a full week with absolutely no recommendations.

We get a brief tease around the 7th and 8th of August. Friday the 7th morning has a 2ft SSW swell with a very long period of 19 seconds, but it’s onshore and messy. The energy is moderate at 282, but it’s not making the cut. The afternoon of the 9th of August (Sunday) looks tidy again with a cross-off wind from the WNW at 12 mph and a 3ft SSW swell (15 seconds, 301 energy). Clean, but tiny. That’s another rare clean session.

The final week from the 10th onward is mostly onshore wind and poor surf, with swell hovering around 1ft to 2ft. The 12th of August afternoon has a moderate 302 energy and light wind, but it’s still just marginal.

So here’s the honest take: if you absolutely need to get wet, aim for Friday afternoon July 31st or Sunday afternoon August 9th. Those are your cleanest windows. Otherwise, this point is living up to its “rarely breaks” reputation. It’s a tough run, but that’s the way it goes around here sometimes.

Rusty.

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