TCs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s happening with TCs (T-C-s) over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you, this is a tough one.

First thing you’ll notice is that we’ve got a lot of days ahead with not much to get excited about. The overall pattern is weak and pretty uninspiring. The swell is small, the winds are mostly cross-onshore, and the surf quality is just not there.

Looking at the start, from Sunday the 26th of July, we’ve got a tiny 3ft swell from the SSW, but it’s a long-period groundswell of 18 seconds. That’s a real tease. The water is sitting at 71°, which is a massive 6° above normal for this time of year—much warmer than usual, which is a nice bit of natural wetsuit. But the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. The combined energy is moderate at 456, but the surf is poor. Not a day to paddle out.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are much the same story. Swell sticks around 3ft with a long period, but the wind is either light cross-onshore or just onshore, giving us poor to marginal conditions. The combined energy actually climbs a bit, hitting 606 on the 29th, but again, the wind kills it.

We roll through the end of July and into the start of August, and it’s a real dry spell. From the 30th of July all the way through to the 10th of August, we’re looking at a solid 12-day stretch where the surf is consistently poor. Swell drops from 4ft down to 1ft by the 6th of August, and the combined energy plummets—dipping into the double digits (70) on the 3rd of August, which is weak. The winds are a constant cross-onshore, never giving us a clean break.

There is one brief moment on the 6th of August where the swell period jumps to 21 seconds, which is a very long groundswell, but it’s only 1ft. That’s too small to do anything with, even if it were clean. The combined energy is still only 156, so it’s weak.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t a true standout in this window. The best I can point to is the afternoon of Tuesday the 28th of July, where the wind is *on* (light breeze) and the swell is 3ft at 17 seconds from the SSW. The combined energy is moderate at 555, and the comment says “marginal surf forecast.” It’s not good, but it’s the least bad. That said, a 17-second period at a reef break like TCs can work, but the swell is small and the tide might be a factor. It’s a gamble.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, TCs (T-C-s) is a fairly consistent reef, so it’s not a spot that stays flat forever. But for this forecast, I’d say keep the board in the car and wait for a different day. The entire 16-day window is a write-off for decent waves.

Rusty.

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