TCs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming our way at TCs. Straight up, I’m not gonna sugar-coat it – this is a tough stretch. The models are showing a long, long dry spell with basically nothing worth paddling out for. The water is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 71° with a 5° anomaly, so you can leave the thick rubber at home, but you’ll be needing a lot of patience.

We’re looking at a gap of over a week with no real surf on offer. From Friday the 14th all the way through Sunday the 24th of August, it’s a flat, weak, and messy picture. The combined energy is feeble, sitting in the low to mid hundreds (around 248 to 339), with tiny swell heights maxing out at 3 ft from a short-period SSW direction. The wind is mostly a cross-onshore breeze, keeping things choppy and uninviting. This isn’t paddle surfing territory; it’s more of a kiteboarder’s playground if anything.

We do get a little flicker of hope come Tuesday the 25th of August. The morning shows a bump in combined energy to 900 and the swell climbs to 4 ft from the SSE with a 16-second period. That’s a proper groundswell pulse, but it’s still a marginal call – the wind is a light cross-onshore, and the wave quality is questionable. For the advanced crew at TCs, this might be the only session worth a look in the whole run, but don’t expect perfection. It’s a rare, inconsistent spot as it is, so a pulse like this is notable but not a guarantee.

The rest of the second week stays small and weak, with energy dropping back into the hundreds and swell heights barely scraping 4 ft. Winds stay light but onshore or cross-shore, and the period is short. Nothing to get excited about.

Bottom line: one very marginal window on the 25th morning for the die-hards, otherwise it’s a blank run. The area is known for this – it’s a sheltered reef, so when it’s flat, it’s flat. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d be finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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