TCs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's shaking out for this spot – TCs, a sheltered reef break that needs a solid SW swell direction to really get going. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a tough one, to be honest. Even though we've got a steady stream of SW swell, it's mostly small, and the wind is almost always a cross-onshore, which just wrecks the face. The standout energy is there, but the conditions never seem to line up.

The water is a story in itself. Right from the start on Thursday morning, July 2nd, it's a balmy 69°F – that's a massive 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year. It's very unusual, like the ocean has had a fever.

The first few days are a write-off. Thursday the 2nd and Friday the 3rd have tiny waves, maybe 2ft to 2ft, with a long period around 16 seconds, but it's all cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 189 on Thursday morning and 288 in the arvo, but it's just messy. Saturday and Sunday are the same story – small, clean-ish in the morning with some glassy periods, but the afternoon winds chop it up. The swell is coming from the SSW, which is a touch off the optimum SW direction for this reef.

The real tease starts around Tuesday the 7th. The swell picks up a bit, hitting 3ft on Tuesday morning, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 462. The period is still a very long 18 seconds, which is classic groundswell. This is the kind of energy that could make this reef sing. However, the wind is still a cross-onshore in the morning, turning to a cross-on again in the afternoon. It's not clean. The forecast calls it "marginal" at best. For a sheltered reef, that cross-onshore is a killer.

We get a little window on Wednesday the 8th morning. The swell is 3ft, the period is 16 seconds, and the combined energy is a beastly 495 – the strongest of the whole run. The wind is a light cross-onshore, which is a bit better. For a short while, there might be a few workable ones, but it's still not glassy. The true standout, if you're being picky, is Monday the 6th of July. The morning is glassy with a light onshore wind, the swell is 2ft from the SSW, period is 16 seconds, and the energy is a solid 321. It's small, but it'll be the cleanest surf of the entire period. The rip at the reef might be a bit of a paddle, but the sets will be nicely spaced.

After the 8th, the energy slowly fades. By the 15th of July, the swell is down to 1.0ft and the energy is a weak 86. The wind is still cross-onshore or onshore. The last few days of the run, up to the 17th, have a tiny bump in period (19 seconds on the 17th morning) but the swell is only 1ft. It's a long-range hope, but don't hold your breath.

Overall, for a surfer, this is a period of small, mostly onshore slop. The best bet is to get out on the morning of Monday the 6th for the cleanest conditions, even if the waves are small. If you're a kiter, this stretch of beach-and-reef setup with the consistent cross-onshore wind and modest swell would be a lot more fun than it is for a paddle surfer.

Rusty.

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