TCs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Straight up, this is a tough one for TCs. The water is sitting at 71°, which is a whopping 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual for the break. We’re looking at a reef setup that’s sheltered and needs a SW swell, but the wind is just not playing ball for most of the run.

The pattern starts off grim. Monday afternoon the 20th kicks off with a weak 2ft SW groundswell (293 combined energy) but a cross-onshore wind is making a mess of things. Tuesday the 21st has a bit more size at 3ft from the SSW but the wind is onshore, and the surf is poor. That theme sticks for days. The swell is there, mostly around 2ft to 3ft, with long periods (14-24 seconds) which usually means better shaped waves, but the cross-onshore wind just won’t let up, keeping it choppy and lumpy. The energy is moderate, hitting three-digit numbers like 502, 638, and 656, but it’s all wasted.

We scrape through a few marginal sessions. The morning of Saturday the 25th has a 2ft SSW groundswell with a long 21-second period, and the wind is light, but the call is only marginal. The morning of Sunday the 26th is similar – 2ft SW, 19-second period, and very light SSW wind that could be offshore, but again, it’s just marginal. The afternoon of Monday the 27th has a 3ft SSW swell with a light onshore breeze, managing a marginal rating. The standouts? Honestly, there aren’t any real standouts in the first two weeks. The combination of cross-onshore winds and poor surf conditions dominate.

The best chance comes on the very last day of the forecast. On Sunday morning, August 2nd, we get a rare moment of glassy conditions. The wind is SSW at only 5 km/h, and it’s glass – the first time we see that. The swell is 3ft from the S with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is weak at 211. The report says surfable but very ordinary. Given the whole run, that’s the pick. It’s the only window where the wind isn’t ruining it.

After that, it drops off hard. Monday the 3rd only has 1ft of swell (89 energy), and the rest of the week is back to poor conditions with cross-onshore winds. The gap between the glassy morning and the next possibility is a dry spell of several days with no real recommendations.

So, for the entire 16-day window, there’s one morning that’s rideable. It’s not going to be epic, but if you’re desperate, Sunday morning August 2nd is your only chance at TCs. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty out.

Read more