Mckenzies Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag for Mckenzies Bay. We’ve got a clean little window to start, then a long flat spell, and a big, powerful swell on the horizon that’s only for the brave.

We kick off on Monday, 3rd August. The morning is the real standout of the whole run. Clear skies, a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NNW at 9 mph, and a clean 3ft swell out of the SE with a solid 11-second period. The water’s sitting at 62°, which is a bit colder than average for this time of year – a wetsuit is your mate. The combined energy is moderate (229), and with the favourable wind, it’s going to be glassy and fun. The crowd here can be often, so get in early. That afternoon the swell backs off a little to 3ft, and the wind goes light, but it’s still surfable.

Tuesday the 4th drops off hard. The swell crashes to 1.0ft and 0.7ft with barely any energy (25 and 17). It’s clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. This sets the tone for a long dry spell. From Wednesday the 5th all the way through the weekend and into the start of the next week, the swell is tiny – mostly under 2ft - with energy readings in the single digits. There’s a brief flicker on Thursday the 6th morning with 2ft and 81 energy, but it’s still ordinary. The wind flips around, and by Friday afternoon it’s cross-onshore and choppy. You’re looking at a solid 5-6 days of nothing worth paddling for.

Things start to stir on Tuesday the 11th. The morning brings a clean 3ft swell from the S with a gentle offshore breeze from the WNW. The energy is moderate (108), but it’s just surfable, not special. The following days are a mix of tiny, weak swells and poor conditions.

Now, hold on to your board. The real event comes on Friday the 14th of August. The morning forecast shows a massive 10ft swell from the S, with a very strong combined energy of 2034. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the NNW at 9 mph. Let me be clear: this is only for experts. 10ft is well over the 8ft mark, and it’s going to be a heavy, powerful, and dangerous wave. The 9-second period means it’s not a super long groundswell, so it won’t be too straight, but at this size, Mckenzies Bay is going to be a beast. The afternoon turns into a messy, cross-onshore 8ft with 777 energy – not worth it.

The weekend after that, Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th, still has some size (5ft down to 3ft) but the wind is strong and cross-shore, making it lumpy and choppy. It’s fun for the experts if they’re desperate, but the quality is gone.

The final few days, Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th, are back to small, clean, ordinary surf. The Tuesday morning has a 2ft S swell with a light offshore from the WNW, and it’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

So, the standout is Monday morning the 3rd for the beginners and intermediates. The big, expert-only session is Friday morning the 14th. Everything else is a long, flat gap or ordinary.

Rusty.

Read more