Manly-South Steyne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, same stretch, just in feet and miles for the imperial crew.

Looking at Manly-South Steyne for the next couple of weeks, and honestly, it’s a tough forecast. A lot of time you’ll be watching the ocean more than surfing it.

The water temp is about 65°, which is totally normal for the season.

The week starts on Tuesday the 8th with some size, but it’s messy. There’s a 8ft SSE swell, but it’s a short 9-second period, and the wind is a cross-off from the S at 15 mph. The energy is moderate at 841, but the report calls it "poor surf conditions." It’s just not clean. Tuesday afternoon drops to 6ft, but it’s still cross-shore and only marginal.

Wednesday the 9th is a complete washout. The morning is tiny at 3ft, but by the afternoon, the swell jumps to 10ft from the SSE, with a 25 mph southerly wind. That’s a lot of power, 981 (moderate wave energy), but it’s going to be a wild, blown-out mess. That’s expert territory, and it won’t be pretty.

Thursday the 10th is more of the same. The swell is around 10ft in the morning, with energy climbing to 1501 (strong wave energy), but the wind is screaming at 19 mph from the SSW. It’s a cross-off, but that much wind on that much swell makes for a bumpy, exhausting session. Not worth it.

Things get a bit better on Friday the 11th. The swell drops to 7ft, and the wind eases to 9 mph from the SSW. The energy is still moderate at 848, but it’s still a cross-off. The report says "marginal," so it’s a gamble, but at least you won’t get pounded.

Here’s the one to circle. Saturday the 12th is your best bet. The morning is clean, with a 5ft SSE swell, a 10-second period, and a light NW wind at just 6 mph. That’s a cross-off, and the report says "expect good surf conditions." The energy is moderate at 411, but the light wind and clean conditions make it the standout session of the whole run. The break is a reef, so it’s inconsistent, but it’ll be the best shape you’ll see. It’s a bit small for the experts, but for a clean, fun wave, this is it. The wind goes onshore in the afternoon, so get out early.

Sunday the 13th is a dud. The swell drops to 3ft, and it’s onshore, choppy, and poor. The whole of the next week, from Monday the 14th to the end of the forecast, is pretty flat and ugly. The swell is mostly under 3ft, winds are onshore or cross-on, and the energy is weak, often below 100 (weak wave energy). There’s a brief moment on Wednesday the 16th with glassy conditions and 4ft, but the energy is still low at 304, and it’s just "ordinary." It’s a long stretch of quiet, poor quality.

There’s a tiny hope on Sunday the 20th, with a 3ft SSW swell and a light offshore at 9 mph, but it’s still weak and ordinary. The crowds at Manly are "sometimes" an issue, but with this kind of forecast, it’s unlikely to be busy.

Bottom line: make your move on Saturday morning the 12th. That’s the only real window for a clean, fun surf. The rest of the 16 days is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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