Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've got a look at what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks. Ilot Sancho is the only spot in the frame, and it's a reef break that's fairly consistent with a SW swell window. The water's sitting at 77°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – not a massive shift, but you'll feel it.

Let's kick things off. Wednesday morning, the 22nd of July, is where it's at to start. We've got a solid 6ft S swell rolling in with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is pumping at 1129 (moderate). The wind is glassy from the SSE at just 3 mph, meaning the surface is clean as a whistle. Conditions are prime for experienced surfers, with the swell size just over the 5ft mark, so it's a bit much for the beginners. The SSW direction is a touch off the optimum SW, but this is still a great session. The afternoon gets a bit dicey with onshore wind, so make the most of the morning.

Thursday the 23rd is a write-off. Onshore wind from the S at 12 mph and cross-onshore conditions make for poor surf. Friday the 24th is similar with cross-shore wind and a lumpy chop – not worth the paddle.

Now, Saturday the 25th starts to look better. The morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze from the ENE at 9 mph, and the afternoon really picks up. We've got 5ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is 935 (moderate). The wind is still cross-off and light, so the waves will be clean and well-shaped. This is a solid session for intermediate surfers.

Sunday the 26th is a real standout. The afternoon has glassy conditions, with a W wind at 3 mph. The swell is 4ft from the SSW, but the period is a mammoth 20 seconds – that's very long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 1521 (strong), and the long period will make these waves reel perfectly down the reef. It's a bit smaller, but the quality is through the roof. Excellent for experienced surfers.

Monday the 27th is the best of the bunch. Morning sets are 8ft from the SW with a 16-second period, and combined energy is a massive 3308 (strong). The wind is cross-off from the ENE at just 3 mph, so it's clean and glassy. This is proper, powerful groundswell, and the reef will handle it beautifully. It's over 8ft, so only for experts, but if you've got the skill, this is the session to wait for. The afternoon holds up well too.

Tuesday the 28th still has decent swell, 7ft and 6ft, with cross-off wind, but the energy drops a bit and the wind picks up to 16 mph, making it a bit more of a handful. Still good for the experienced crew.

From Wednesday the 29th through to the end of the first week of August, the quality drops. We get a mix of cross-shore and cross-off winds, with moderate to fresh breezes, and the swell direction gets a bit messy. The combined energy stays moderate to strong, but the wind keeps the surface lumpy or choppy. There's a couple of clean windows, like Thursday the 30th morning and Friday the 31st morning, but the wind is still moderate.

Then, from the 3rd of August, the swell goes absolutely mental. By Monday the 3rd, we're looking at 12ft to 15ft S swell with combined energy over 6000 (very strong). The reef is going to be a washing machine – it's simply too big for paddle surfing at this break. The wind is cross-shore, so it's a lumpy, dangerous mess. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than surfboards.

The swell finally backs down by Thursday the 6th of August, with 8ft to 8ft from the SE, but the wind is still fresh cross-shore, so clean-up will be slow.

So, for the best on offer, it's Sunday the 26th for the pristine, long-period glassy session, and Monday the 27th for the big, powerful groundswell with clean winds. The rest of the window is either average or too big to handle.

Rusty, signing off.

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