Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up for Ilot Sancho.

The first couple of days are a bit of a write-off. Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th have swell around 5 to 6 feet from the SSW, but the wind is messy – cross-shore and cross-chop, and the water’s a touch warmer than normal at 77° (about 3° above average for this time of year). The combined energy is moderate, around 892 to 1012, so it’s not doing much. Tide conditions are questionable, and the surf is marginal. Best to wait.

Thursday the 27th morning shows a pulse – a solid 10-foot SSW groundswell with a very long period of 18 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 5015, so there’s real power. But the wind is light cross-onshore, a light breeze, so it’s not blown out but not clean. For an experienced surfer, the size and period are interesting. That afternoon, the wind picks up a little, and the energy goes even higher to 5593, but it gets a bit choppier. The standout early on is Thursday morning – big, powerful, but you’ll need to be on your game.

Then a rough patch hits. From Friday the 28th through to Sunday the 30th, the wind howls – strong breezes from the SSE and ESE, 22 to 25 mph, with cross-on or cross-shore conditions. The swell is huge, between 11 and 13 feet, with combined energy soaring into the 9000s, but it’s just messy, lumpy, and poor. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session. Not worth a look.

Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st of September see the swell drop to 10 feet, but the wind swings to a cross-off from the east, 19 mph – clean conditions finally. The period is short though, only 9 to 10 seconds, so it’s a bit weak. Marginal surf, but at least it’s clean. The combined energy is around 1745 to 1837, so moderate.

The real standout is Saturday the 5th of September. The morning sees a 7-foot SSW groundswell with a nice 15-second period, clean cross-off winds from the ENE at only 9 mph, and the combined energy is a solid 2902. The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers – and I’d agree. That’s the pick of the whole forecast. The afternoon holds up too, with 6-foot SSW and the same long period, clean winds, and energy at 2312. Circle this one. It’s a reef break, so that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely. Crowds are possible at Ilot Sancho, so get there early.

Sunday the 6th of September has some potential morning – 5-foot SSW with a very long 18-second period, light onshore breeze, but the combined energy is 3118, so there’s plenty of push. The wind is onshore, though, so it’s not as clean as Saturday. The afternoon gets bigger at 8 feet, but the wind picks up to a moderate onshore, so it’s a step down.

After that, the final days from the 7th to the 9th of September are again blown out by strong cross-on winds from the SE, with huge swell (10 to 18 feet) and massive energy (up to 20299). The 8th of September morning has a tide that’s favourable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for the break – 18 feet with a 19-second period. That’s expert-only territory, and with the wind, it’s a mess.

So, bottom line: the best session is Saturday the 5th of September morning. Clean, solid, long-period groundswell, and manageable winds. The second week is a mixed bag – some clean days but short period, and then a big, windy finish. Don’t bother with the first week or the very end unless you’re kiting.

Rusty.

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