Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty again, with the imperial version. Let's get into it.

The first real chance to get wet is right now. Sunday morning, September 6th, we’ve got a 4.3ft SW groundswell rolling in at 13 seconds, but the wind is a cross-shore from the ESE at 9 mph. The combined wave energy is a solid 1148, so there’s power. The water’s a pleasant 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. It’s a bit marginal thanks to some cross-chop, but it’s rideable. By Sunday afternoon, same break, the swell drops a touch to 3.9ft, still SW, but the wind picks up to 12 mph from the SE, making it more of a cross-chop session.

Monday, September 7th, we see a jump in size. Morning brings 6.9ft of SSW groundswell with a long 15-second period, but the wind is cross-on from the south at 9 mph, and it’s raining. The energy is ripping at 2310, but the conditions are choppy and messy. By Monday afternoon, it’s 8.2ft from the same SSW direction, 14-second period, and the wind is cross-on at 12 mph. The energy is cranking at 3148, but it’s no good for a clean session. This is beginner territory – too big, and the wind is killing it.

Tuesday, September 8th, is a write-off. The swell hits 7.2ft in the morning and 9.8ft in the afternoon, with winds screaming from the SE at 22 mph. The energy numbers are massive (3622 and 7411), but it’s lumpy, onshore, and just plain ugly. A kite surfer might love it, but for a paddle surfer, you’re better off staying on the sand.

Now, Wednesday, September 9th, is the standout window. The morning brings a massive 13.1ft SSW groundswell with an incredibly long 18-second period. The wave energy is a staggering 11437. But here’s the catch – the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the ESE at 19 mph, and the forecast says it’s too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a wild, dangerous beast. The afternoon is similar, 13.1ft at 17 seconds, but the wind is stronger at 22 mph, making it a total mess.

Thursday, September 10th, the swell drops but the wind doesn’t let up. 7.2ft in the morning, 6.2ft in the afternoon, both from the SW, but the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. The energy is still high (4218 and 3133), but the quality is poor.

Friday, September 11th, we get a bit of a reprieve. The swell is 8.2ft, but it’s turned to a short-period 9-second ESE windswell. The wind is a cross-offshore from the east at 16 mph, and it’s actually clean. The energy is 1849. The morning window is the pick, with rain showers around but the surf is clean. The afternoon sees the wind swing more cross-shore, adding chop.

Saturday, September 12th, the morning is worth a look. We’ve got 5.2ft of SSW groundswell with a long 16-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the east at 12 mph. The energy is 1683, and it’s clean. The afternoon sees the swell drop to 4.6ft and the wind goes cross-shore, chopping it up.

The rest of the second week is a long stretch of marginal surf. From Sunday, September 13th, through to Friday, September 18th, we’re looking at a mix of 4.3ft to 8.2ft swell, mostly from the SSW or ESE, but the wind is almost always a fresh cross-shore or cross-offshore, keeping the surface lumpy or just clean enough to be average. The energy is moderate to strong (1582 to 2887), but the consistency is hurt by the wind. The standout from this block is Tuesday, September 15th, with a morning 7.5ft SSW swell at 16 seconds and clean cross-offshore wind from the east at 16 mph. The energy is 2887. That’s a solid, clean session if you can handle the size.

The final weekend, September 19th and 20th, the swell is back to knee-waist high, 3.3ft to 3.9ft, and the wind is a cross-shore, keeping it choppy. Not worth paddling out.

The best of the whole 16-day run? I’d say the morning of Friday, September 11th, and the morning of

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