Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break down Ilot Sancho in the language you’re used to.

For the first week and a half, it’s a real grind. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 25°, which is nice, but it doesn’t fix the wind.

The first action kicks off on Tuesday, August 4th. Ilot Sancho is a reef break, and it’s got a solid 8ft to 8ft E swell (moderate combined energy of 1256 to 1472). The problem is that stiff 30 km/h easterly wind. It’s cross-offshore, which is better than onshore, but it’s a fresh breeze. The period is a short 9 seconds, so the waves are a bit junky and the tide is wrong. More of a look than a paddle.

Wednesday the 5th is more of the same: 8ft to 8ft on the E swell, still with that 25-30 km/h cross-off wind. The afternoon period drops to 9 seconds, making it feel even messier. The energy is there (1333-1644), but the quality isn’t.

Thursday the 6th to Sunday the 9th is where it gets ugly. The swell stays around 7ft to 8ft, but the wind swings more ESE and goes cross-shore. The morning of the 6th is the last clean-ish look before the wind turns into a fresh cross-shore with lumpy cross-chop for almost four straight days. The energy is high (1058-1881), but the surface is a mess. The Saturday morning of the 8th has a *very* high 1881 energy reading, but with that 30 km/h cross-shore, it’s a washing machine. For a reef, this is more of a kiteboarding setup than a paddle one.

We get a reprieve on Monday the 10th. The morning is still 7ft E swell with a clean cross-off breeze, but the real story is the afternoon. A new 3ft SW groundswell shows up with a very long 18-second period, carrying a solid 1601 of combined energy. The wind is a moderate 25 km/h cross-off. It’s small, but it’s the first sign of life.

Tuesday the 11th is the first real standout. We’ve got an 8ft E swell with a moderate 25 km/h cross-off breeze and a 9-second period. The combined energy jumps to a very strong 2127. The wind is clean, the swell is solid. For a reef, this is the best window of the first week. Get on it.

The middle of the week gets a bit weird. Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th see a shift to a smaller 5ft to 5ft SW groundswell. The period is long (13-15 seconds), which is good for this reef, and the wind is clean cross-off. But the size is down, and it’s not the standout.

Now, here’s the big one on the horizon. Friday, August 14th, the swell goes big. A 10ft SSW swell hits with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 3989. The wind is ESE at 25 km/h, which is cross-shore. This is a lot of power, and for a reef, it’s going to be thick and heavy. At 10ft+, this is expert-only territory. The wind is the only thing holding it back from perfection.

Saturday, August 15th is the absolute best on offer. The swell drops a little to 7ft from the SSW, but the period stretches out to a very long 19 seconds. The combined energy is 4116. And the wind? Moderate 25 km/h cross-off from the E. This is a proper groundswell, with long, clean lines. For a reef, that long period will mean powerful, well-shaped waves. The stronger energy means the sets will be defined. This is the day to circle.

Sunday the 16th is still very good, with 8ft SSW swell, a 17-second period, and clean 20 km/h cross-off winds. The energy is 3960. It’s the tail end of that pulse, but still a great session.

After that, the swell backs off through Monday the 17th and into the 18th, with 4ft to 4ft SW swells and gentle cross-off winds. The energy drops to moderate (666-1430). The 19th of August sees the window close with a weak, short-period 5ft ESE swell and a poor cross-shore chop. The energy is only 470. It’s a quiet end to the run.

Rusty.

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