Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Ilot Sancho. Let’s be straight with you – this forecast is a rollercoaster, but it’s not a smooth ride. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first few days are a bit of a letdown, and the real magic is tucked away in the second week.

The overall pattern is this: a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind messing with what could be good swells. For the first week, it’s a struggle. The standout, and I mean the only real standout, comes right at the start of the second week.

Right now, we’re looking at Tuesday, July 14th, and it’s honestly not worth paddling out. The swell is around 6 ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, but that east wind is blowing 15 mph right across the face. It’s clean, but the energy is all over the place (1698). The water temp is pretty average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Wednesday and Thursday are more of the same, with some rain showers and a bit of a drop in size. The wind stays cross-off or cross, so it’s not completely unsurfable, but it’s not compelling. The energy is dropping, and the period is short.

Friday, July 17th morning – Now, this is a glimmer. The wind goes glassy, WNW at 3 mph. That’s a massive positive. The swell is a bit smaller at 5 ft from the ESE with a short 8-second period, but it’s clean. The combined energy (753) is moderate. It’ll be a fun, small-wave session for intermediates, but don’t expect power.

From Friday afternoon all the way through to Monday, July 20th, the wind switches to cross-on or onshore, and the swell gets messy. It’s a bit of a dead zone. The energy drops, and the conditions are choppy. Not worth chasing.

Now, here’s where we get excited. Tuesday, July 21st morning – This is the standout of the whole run. The forecast has a solid 8 ft swell from the SSW, with a 13-second period. That’s a proper groundswell. The wind is offshore from the NE at only 3 mph, so it’s going to be clean as a whistle. The combined energy is pumping at 2038 – that’s strong wave energy. This is for experienced surfers, as it’s over 7 ft and a reef break, so it’s not a beginner wave. The optimum swell direction is SW, and we’re getting SSW, which is close enough to be excellent. This is the one to circle. Crowds are possible, so get out early.

The rest of that week and into the next is a mixed bag. Wednesday, July 22nd, has a bigger 8 ft SSW swell with a 15-second period, but the wind is cross-on from the S, which will spoil it. Thursday and Friday have some decent swell, but the wind keeps swinging cross or cross-on, making it a gamble. The energy is high, but the quality is questionable.

From Saturday, July 25th, right through to Wednesday, July 29th, the wind is a solid cross-shore breeze from the ESE, 15-22 mph. It’s lumpy and choppy. The swell is still there, but the conditions are only for the keenest, or honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The energy is high, but it’s a battle.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. The real, rideable surf doesn’t kick in until Tuesday, July 21st morning. That’s your best bet. The long-range stuff after that has promise, but it’s less certain with the wind. Keep an eye on it, but for now, Tuesday morning is the one.

Rusty.

Read more