Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into this one.

Alright, listen up. It’s going to be a bit of a waiting game for the real good stuff. The first couple of days are messy, but we’ve got some real standouts on the horizon. The main event is definitely a window around July 27th, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

We start off on Tuesday, July 21st. The morning is actually pretty decent at Ilot Sancho (a reef break). We’ve got a clean 7ft SSW swell with a solid 12-second period, and the wind is a light 10 km/h cross-off from the ENE. The water is sitting at 77°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined energy is strong at 1343. Good, clean waves for the experienced crew. But by Tuesday afternoon, the wind shifts to a cross-shore 15 km/h ESE and the surface gets a bit of a chop, dropping the quality.

Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd are a bit of a write-off. The swell drops to 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, making it choppy and pretty average. The combined energy is moderate, dropping to around 918 on Thursday. Not worth paddling out for.

Friday the 24th sees a drop in swell height to 4ft, but the period jumps to a long 16 seconds from the SW. The energy is moderate at 1015. The morning could be fun with a light cross-off breeze, but the afternoon gets a 20 km/h cross-shore wind that makes it lumpy.

Now, Saturday the 25th is where it gets interesting. The morning is clean with a 4ft SW swell and a 13-second period. The wind is a light 5 km/h cross-off from the NE. It’s not huge, but the conditions are good. The combined energy is moderate at 802. This is a nice, quiet option.

Sunday the 26th is a funny one. The morning has a tiny 2ft SW swell, but with a massive 22-second period, giving it a combined energy of 1136. It’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll be super clean, but with such a small height, it’s going to be very inconsistent. The afternoon picks up a bit to 4ft and 20-second period, but the onshore wind messes it up.

Here it is, the standout. Monday, July 27th. This is the one you’ve been waiting for. The morning is glassy, absolutely glassy, with a 5 km/h NNW wind. The swell is a solid 13ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is a massive 8153. This is serious, heavy groundswell. For a reef break with this size, this is expert-only territory. It’s going to be big, powerful, and clean. The afternoon is similar, just a bit smaller at 12ft, still glassy. If you’re an experienced surfer looking for a proper challenge, this is your window.

Tuesday the 28th is still excellent. The morning has a clean 8ft SW swell with a 14-second period and a cross-off wind from the E. The energy is strong at 2611. This is more manageable for a strong intermediate, and it’s clean.

From Wednesday, July 29th through to the end of the forecast, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The swell stays up, between 5ft and 10ft, but the wind gets stronger, often up to 25-30 km/h from the E or ESE. The period fluctuates, dropping to 9-10 seconds at times, which is shorter period. The energy is consistently strong, but the wind will make the surface a bit lumpy for most of the time. There are some clean windows with cross-off winds, but the stronger wind will be a factor. The 10ft ESE swell on August 4th and 5th is going to be a big, messy, close-out at this reef, and with the strong cross-shore wind, it’s going to be a chore. That setup might actually be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

So, to sum it up: the best day on offer is Monday, July 27th for the experts, and Tuesday, July 28th for the strong intermediates. Everything else is a bit of a gamble with the wind. Stay sharp.

Rusty.

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