Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re looking at a solid run of swell for Ilot Sancho over the next couple of weeks, but it’s not a straight shot. The water is sitting at 78°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Kicking off Friday the 3rd, we’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period rolling in. The wind is a moderate easterly breeze, cross-off, so the waves will be clean. The combined energy is pumping at 1675 (moderate energy), but it’s only scoring a 3. It’s rideable, but nothing to write home about.

Saturday the 4th is where things start to look a bit better. The swell nudges up to 6ft from the SSW, still with a nice long 13-second period. We get a light easterly breeze in the afternoon, making for clean, lined-up waves. The energy is still moderate (1294–1425). A solid, fun day for the intermediate crew, but not the standout of the run.

Now, Sunday the 5th starts off clean with a light easterly and 4ft swell, but by the afternoon, the wind shifts to a gentle cross-onshore SE breeze and the swell jumps to 5ft with a very long 16-second period and strong energy (1969). That long period will make the waves more powerful, but the onshore wind messes with the quality. The morning is the go.

Monday the 6th gets messy. We’ve got a 7ft SW swell but a strong S wind at 19 mph in the afternoon, turning it lumpy and poor. The morning is not much better with a light cross-onshore.

Then we hit a rough patch from Tuesday the 7th through Thursday the 10th. Tuesday brings a 10ft to 12ft S/SSE short-period swell (8–9 seconds) with a strong SE wind at 25 mph, making it a total mess. The energy is strong (2360–2277), but it’s unsurfable. Wednesday and Thursday are similar: big, short-period swell with a fresh cross-shore wind and lumpy conditions. This is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The combined energy stays high (over 1000), but the wind kills it.

We get a bit of a reset on Friday the 11th. The swell drops to 6ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the wind goes back to a moderate cross-off easterly. The waves are clean, but the energy is moderate (1543–1842). It’s a 3 out of 10 session. Good for a cruise.

The real highlight of the whole outlook is Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th. On Sunday, the swell builds to 10ft from the SSW with a very long 16-second period. Combined energy hits 4796 (strong). That’s a big, powerful groundswell. The wind is a clean cross-off easterly all day. However, this is a reef break, and with that size, it’s strictly for experienced surfers only. The long period will make the waves powerful and walled-up. If you’re a confident surfer, that Sunday afternoon is the pick of the entire forecast. Monday the 13th holds similar energy at 8ft from the SSW, still clean in the morning with a gentle breeze.

The second week from Tuesday the 15th onward becomes less reliable. We see a mix of ESE swell with short periods (8-9 seconds) and cross-shore winds. The size fluctuates between 8ft and 10ft, but the quality is down due to the wind. The morning of Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th could be worth a look with cross-off winds and clean conditions, but the swell is short-period.

Then, the final day, Saturday the 18th, throws in a curveball. The morning is glassy with a 10ft E swell at 10 seconds. Combined energy is moderate (1741). That’s incredibly clean, but again, big and powerful at a reef. A nice way to end the run if you’re an expert.

Rusty out.

Read more