Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Ilot Sancho.

Alright, straight up, the next couple of days are gonna be a bit of a mixed bag, so don’t expect perfection, but there are some windows. The water is sittin’ at 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus when you’re paddling out.

The first real shot of surf rolls in Friday morning the 4th of September. We’re looking at a 8 ft swell from the east with a 9-second period. The combined energy is moderate (1311). It’s not huge, but a cross-offshore wind from the east at 16 mph will keep the surface clean. The catch is the forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so you’ll need to pick your moment. This swell fades a bit into the afternoon but stays clean.

Saturday the 5th, things change. The swell drops to 6 ft but it’s a proper SW groundswell with a 14-second period – that’s a long-period groundswell, boys. The energy is still decent (1701). The wind goes cross-shore from the ESE at 9 mph. That long period means the waves will have good shape and more punch but the cross-shore wind gives it a slight chop. Still, a better quality of wave than Friday. Sunday the 6th sees the swell drop further to 4 ft and the period drops to 13 seconds. Not worth getting too excited about.

Now, Monday the 7th, the swell starts to build again. Morning shows 7 ft from the SSW at 15 seconds, but the wind is a crappy cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it choppy. By the afternoon it’s 8 ft and the wind is still cross-onshore. Don’t expect silky walls.

Tuesday the 8th is a write-off for surfing. We get a 10 ft SSW swell but the onshore wind is a fresh 19 mph, making the ocean lumpy and poor. This actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Wednesday the 9th is a big one – 13 ft from the SSW with an 18-second period and the combined energy is off the charts (9999). The wind is cross-shore at 19 mph, but honest to god, the forecast literally says it’s predicted to be too big for this break. This is for experts only, and even then, you’d want to be very, very careful. The period is so long (18 seconds) that at a reef break like Ilot Sancho, it could be spectacular but also very heavy and straight.

Thursday the 10th through Saturday the 13th, the swell slowly drops, but the wind stays a fresh cross or cross-off from the ESE, so it’s clean at times but never that big. Saturday the 12th is the pick of that stretch with 6 ft from the S at 15 seconds and clean cross-off winds at 12 mph. That’s a solid session waiting to happen. Combined energy is moderate (2030).

From Sunday the 13th into the second week, the swell gets inconsistent and smaller – mostly around 3 ft to 5 ft. The period stays long (12-18 seconds) on most days, but the wind is often cross-shore, so the waves will be there but lack push.

There’s a bit of a spike on Wednesday the 16th of September with a 8 ft SSW swell and 16-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. Then Thursday the 17th is 10 ft but same story – lumpy. By the 19th, we get a 4 ft clean swell with an 18-second period – long period groundswell, but tiny.

So here’s the bottom line: the standout is Saturday the 12th of September. You get 6 ft of clean, long-period S swell (15 seconds) with cross-off winds. The combined energy is moderate (2030). That’s your best bet for a fun, clean session without getting pounded or fighting the wind. The other noteworthy mention is the big 13 ft on Wednesday the 9th, but that’s for the brave and the expert. Keep an eye on the tides.

- Rusty

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