Ilot Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, Rusty here again. Let's run through this in feet and knots for those who think in those numbers.

The first couple of days are a bit of a struggle. The swell is there, but the wind is a bastard. We are looking at a decent run of surf starting Wednesday, July 8th, but you’ve got to pick the right window. Water temp is about normal for the season.

Wednesday morning has some lumpy cross-shore wind on a solid 10ft SE swell. The energy is moderate (2010), but that wind is going to tear it up. That afternoon, the swell pushes to 12ft and the energy gets strong (2216), but with the same messy cross-shore wind and rain. At that size, this reef is just too big for most of us. Hard pass.

Thursday the 9th is where it starts to clean up. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft from the ESE, and the wind swings to a cross-offshore breeze. It’s clean. The energy is still solid at 1304. This is your first real chance at a wave, though it’s still considered marginal. Friday morning the 10th looks even cleaner with lighter winds, but the swell is down to 5ft from the east. Small and clean, a longboarder’s dream.

Now, the standout. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th. On Saturday morning, the direction swings to a long-period 16-second swell from the SW at 5ft. That’s proper groundswell. The energy is already strong (1742). By Sunday morning the 12th, it jumps to 8ft from the SW, still with that long 15-second period, and the energy is very strong (3668). The wind is a clean cross-offshore breeze both days. This is the pick of the forecast. That long-period SW groundswell will wrap in beautifully, and with clean conditions, Ilot Sancho is going to be magic. But at 8ft on a reef, that’s expert territory. The power will be serious. Crowds can show up here sometimes, but that size should thin them out.

After that peak, the surf holds through the middle of the week but starts to fade. Monday the 13th has a bit of cross-shore chop in the morning, but cleans up in the afternoon with 7ft swell from the SW. The energy is still strong (2173). Tuesday and Wednesday drop below 6ft, but stay clean. Not a bad little run, but nothing to write home about.

There’s a bit of a lull from Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 18th. The swell is small, in the 5ft to 6ft range, and while it’s clean, the energy drops off to low (593 to 740). It’s just flat-ish.

Then, Sunday the 19th is a total write-off with a fresh cross-shore breeze and lumpy conditions. But Monday the 20th kicks off another big pulse. That morning starts messy, but the afternoon throws up a massive 12ft SE swell with clean conditions and very strong energy (3584). Again, the problem is the size. That’s too big for this spot.

The last few days from Tuesday the 21st all the way to Thursday the 23rd are pumping, but at 13ft to 15ft from the ESE with very strong energy (4770 to 7153), this is strictly for the big-wave crew. The wind is clean, but the size is apocalyptic. If you’re not towing in, stay on the beach.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Sunday morning the 12th of July. The 8ft SW groundswell at 15 seconds with clean cross-offshore winds is the clear standout. Saturday the 11th is also a very solid option. The rest of the window is either too small, too windy, or too big.

Rusty, out.

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